tom02 wrote:

Does anyone know when the first A333 will be retired in 2018?

I'd be surprised if the A333 is actually retired. I foresee it ending up in Domestic service on PHX/DFW-Hawaii and Hub-Hub. It works well on those routes, even with such a small fleet.

alasizon wrote:

tom02 wrote:

Does anyone know when the first A333 will be retired in 2018?

I'd be surprised if the A333 is actually retired. I foresee it ending up in Domestic service on PHX/DFW-Hawaii and Hub-Hub. It works well on those routes, even with such a small fleet.

I think AA keeps the A332's for the missions you mentioned, but the A333's are gone cause of their P&W engines,
They're orphans in AA's vast fleet

Sooner787 wrote:

alasizon wrote:

tom02 wrote:

Does anyone know when the first A333 will be retired in 2018?

I'd be surprised if the A333 is actually retired. I foresee it ending up in Domestic service on PHX/DFW-Hawaii and Hub-Hub. It works well on those routes, even with such a small fleet.

I think AA keeps the A332's for the missions you mentioned, but the A333's are gone cause of their P&W engines,
They're orphans in AA's vast fleet

Long term, sure. However, AA isn't taking enough 787s by 2019 to free up the 332s & 333s from their current missions.

Wish AA would send a few A330's to DFW .....

alasizon wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

alasizon wrote:

I'd be surprised if the A333 is actually retired. I foresee it ending up in Domestic service on PHX/DFW-Hawaii and Hub-Hub. It works well on those routes, even with such a small fleet.

I think AA keeps the A332's for the missions you mentioned, but the A333's are gone cause of their P&W engines,
They're orphans in AA's vast fleet

Long term, sure. However, AA isn't taking enough 787s by 2019 to free up the 332s & 333s from their current missions.

I respectfully disagree. The A333 will likely leave in 2019 as planned with AA moving more A332 and domestic widebody slack to cover its routes. AA doesn't like deploying widebodies on domestic routes (compared to UA / DL) and they will have plenty of A321 coming in. DFW-Hawaii is already going all-77E, so the 763 is on the way out as well. The 752 will probably outlast both the 763 and A333.

Happy new year.

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to thread of 2017:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1355925

Swadian wrote:

alasizon wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

I think AA keeps the A332's for the missions you mentioned, but the A333's are gone cause of their P&W engines,
They're orphans in AA's vast fleet

Long term, sure. However, AA isn't taking enough 787s by 2019 to free up the 332s & 333s from their current missions.

I respectfully disagree. The A333 will likely leave in 2019 as planned with AA moving more A332 and domestic widebody slack to cover its routes. AA doesn't like deploying widebodies on domestic routes (compared to UA / DL) and they will have plenty of A321 coming in. DFW-Hawaii is already going all-77E, so the 763 is on the way out as well. The 752 will probably outlast both the 763 and A333.

I'm not saying the 333s stick around for much longer but I think we will see the last one leave in 2020Q4 or 2021Q1. Regardless of how many 321s AA has, when there is already a 321 Hub-Hub flight in the targeted bank and you need more seats in that particular bank, the only real option is to either add another flight (which causes confusion due to the departure/arrival time similarity) or to upgauge.

I think this topic should be renamed to focus more on American's fleet in general since the airline is now basically repainted and most updates now are about retirements and new deliveries.

Sooner787 wrote:

Wish AA would send a few A330's to DFW .....

In the chance the A350 order is swapped to the A330neo, I can see A330s going to DFW! They could be a great DFW-Hawaii plane!

Are the IR updates out yet? I know we are expecting more of the 763ER, 752, older A320, and the Super 80s to withdrawn. I do know by the end of this year the fleet will be around 26 Mad Dogs in total by the end of this year. I am pretty sure a huge chunk of the 763ERs and 752s will be gone as well. Not sure about the amount of A320s they are gonna withdraw but I'm sure its a few of them. Gonna be yet another busy year in aviation for the US3.

Narfish641 wrote:

Are the IR updates out yet? I know we are expecting more of the 763ER, 752, older A320, and the Super 80s to withdrawn. I do know by the end of this year the fleet will be around 26 Mad Dogs in total by the end of this year. I am pretty sure a huge chunk of the 763ERs and 752s will be gone as well. Not sure about the amount of A320s they are gonna withdraw but I'm sure its a few of them. Gonna be yet another busy year in aviation for the US3.

I thought they were reducing the 763 fleet to 17, but all 34 current 752 may stick around due to 10 being PHX-Hawaii 75H and 24 being International 75L which don't really have any replacement since AA will not begin taking delivery of A321neo until 2019 and have no A321LR on order. As far as I can check (11 months), all PHX-Hawaii is still 75H.

alasizon wrote:

Swadian wrote:

alasizon wrote:

Long term, sure. However, AA isn't taking enough 787s by 2019 to free up the 332s & 333s from their current missions.

I respectfully disagree. The A333 will likely leave in 2019 as planned with AA moving more A332 and domestic widebody slack to cover its routes. AA doesn't like deploying widebodies on domestic routes (compared to UA / DL) and they will have plenty of A321 coming in. DFW-Hawaii is already going all-77E, so the 763 is on the way out as well. The 752 will probably outlast both the 763 and A333.

I'm not saying the 333s stick around for much longer but I think we will see the last one leave in 2020Q4 or 2021Q1. Regardless of how many 321s AA has, when there is already a 321 Hub-Hub flight in the targeted bank and you need more seats in that particular bank, the only real option is to either add another flight (which causes confusion due to the departure/arrival time similarity) or to upgauge.

Yes, but AA has rolling banks at their biggest hubs where there are very few flights between "superbanks" with exclusive connections at both hub ends. AA also has lots of redundancy between PHX/DFW/ORD/CLT. If one hub is overloaded they can shift capacity to another.

That being said, if AA launches something like PHL-HNL I could see the A332 on it.

Narfish641 wrote:

Are the IR updates out yet? I know we are expecting more of the 763ER, 752, older A320, and the Super 80s to withdrawn. I do know by the end of this year the fleet will be around 26 Mad Dogs in total by the end of this year. I am pretty sure a huge chunk of the 763ERs and 752s will be gone as well. Not sure about the amount of A320s they are gonna withdraw but I'm sure its a few of them. Gonna be yet another busy year in aviation for the US3.

The IR update I think comes out on the 8th so we shall have the fleet plan then.

Swadian wrote:

Yes, but AA has rolling banks at their biggest hubs where there are very few flights between "superbanks" with exclusive connections at both hub ends. AA also has lots of redundancy between PHX/DFW/ORD/CLT. If one hub is overloaded they can shift capacity to another.

That being said, if AA launches something like PHL-HNL I could see the A332 on it.

The PHX/DFW/ORD redundancy is heavily used (particularly AM redundancy). As an example, in B3 for PHX (currently the 11:00 departure bank), the inbound CLT that is currently on the 330 has on average 200+ connecting pax all within that bank and the majority of them are to California markets or unique markets out of PHX. The ability to duplicate that via DFW/ORD simply doesn't exist right now because DFW/ORD and their respective arrivals from CLT for the similarly timed westbound banks are equally as full. Quite frankly I think AA is in need of extra Hub-Hub capacity on PHX-DFW/CLT/PHL; DFW-LAX/PHX/CLT and CLT-DFW/PHX/PHL and I see no real way for them to add the capacity while staying in bank without running flights as wingtips (which PHX/CLT-DFW already does and its confusing for passengers) or upgauging select flights to widebodies. I think a dedicated group of domestic widebodies would allow far better connecting options for AA passengers that use the PHX/DFW/CLT trio that start/end in an Eagle operated market.

rj1385 wrote:

I think this topic should be renamed to focus more on American's fleet in general since the airline is now basically repainted and most updates now are about retirements and new deliveries.

I concur. My name just shows up as the topic author because my post was used as the split from the 2017 thread. Mods, perhaps we could change the title to "AA Fleet Updates - 2018"

alasizon wrote:

The IR update I think comes out on the 8th so we shall have the fleet plan then.

This year I would expect more MD-80s, 767s and A320s to leave the fleet but I would not expect any 757 retirement. All remaining 34 757s are staying at least till early next year, if not longer. I wouldn't expect either any A333 or E190 phase out as those aren't due to leave the fleet before next year, if not two years from now.

A319: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
A332: no change either. No new delivery, maybe yes if they decide to swap the A359 order to more A332s, but otherwise no new delivery. No phase out.
77E: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
77W: no change. No new delivery, unless they decide to order a couple more of those should they need those for expansion, but I'm not sure they will buy more of those. Definitely no phase out.

All the deliveries of the 738s of the current generation as well as the A321s OEOs are now concluded. No A321NEO delivery yet as those are coming only next year. What we will see is more 737-8MAX coming.

A decision is likely to be made this year about what they will do with the 22 A359s on order. They have to make a decision. They can't think and postpone for ever.

American 767 wrote:

alasizon wrote:

The IR update I think comes out on the 8th so we shall have the fleet plan then.

This year I would expect more MD-80s, 767s and A320s to leave the fleet but I would not expect any 757 retirement. All remaining 34 757s are staying at least till early next year, if not longer. I wouldn't expect either any A333 or E190 phase out as those aren't due to leave the fleet before next year, if not two years from now.

A319: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
A332: no change either. No new delivery, maybe yes if they decide to swap the A359 order to more A332s, but otherwise no new delivery. No phase out.
77E: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
77W: no change. No new delivery, unless they decide to order a couple more of those should they need those for expansion, but I'm not sure they will buy more of those. Definitely no phase out.

All the deliveries of the 738s of the current generation as well as the A321s OEOs are now concluded. No A321NEO delivery yet as those are coming only next year. What we will see is more 737-8MAX coming.

A decision is likely to be made this year about what they will do with the 22 A359s on order. They have to make a decision. They can't think and postpone for ever.

I think the biggest changes will be on the Eagle side; AA has room in the large RJ scope clause but not enough room in the overall RJ clause and still a few too many 50 seaters.

By year-end:
DH3: All leaving this year
ERD: I'd expect them to all be gone by end of year again
ER4: Likely going to stick with 30 or so for Envoy plus 60 for Piedmont
CRJ: I'd expect PSA fleet to begin leaving this year, Piedmont can cover in markets back east where 50 seaters are crucial and other markets can be upgauaged to the CR7 which also counts as a small RJ when at 65 seats. Lets say we have 25 by end of year
CR7: I foresee all of the Envoy CR7s to finish their transition to PSA this year. I'd like to see a top-off for PSA & Skywest (would be the first new build 700s in a while). I think a final fleet around 150 would be good (70 PSA, 50 OO, 20 EV)..
CR9: No changes
E175: I'd expect the Envoy deliveries to continue up to 54 birds. EOY would be at 158 by my count

Large RJ: 276 (Cap 329)
Total RJ: 541 (Cap 610)

Just wondering ... since AA seems to have a pilot contract covering the E-190 as a mainline fleet, is there room to expand the fleet in that size? Whether it be more E-190/195, E2 or even CS100 down the road, does AA need more small mainliners? There is a big gap in size between the Eagle E-170/175 and the A319. The in-between size could bridge some markets that are too big for the Eagles and too marginal for the A-319, especially in view of the CS series eventually showing up at DL. If AA stays with Embraer, that would seem a logical flow-through point for the Eagle pilots "graduating" to mainline.
---
And yes, I agree with either closing this thread or renaming it. AA mainline is done repainting all 617 aircraft that were intended to be painted (S80 and other retiring aircraft not included). There may be a few Eagles left, especially if they intend to pull more E-140s out of mothballs for any length of time. But 375 regional aircraft have been repainted, totaling 992 aircraft through the paintshop in 5 years. (Source: AA internal "Arrivals" newsletter, dated 28DEC17.)

Wingtips56 wrote:

Just wondering ... since AA seems to have a pilot contract covering the E-190 as a mainline fleet, is there room to expand the fleet in that size? Whether it be more E-190/195, E2 or even CS100 down the road, does AA need more small mainliners? There is a big gap in size between the Eagle E-170/175 and the A319. The in-between size could bridge some markets that are too big for the Eagles and too marginal for the A-319, especially in view of the CS series eventually showing up at DL. If AA stays with Embraer, that would seem a logical flow-through point for the Eagle pilots "graduating" to mainline.

The E190 is on its way out and will be retired by end of 2019. AA seems to be happy at the moment with no 100 seat aircraft and instead just increasing frequencies or fares (and thereby yields). The E175 is a capable aircraft by all means and there is very limited service differential between the 175 and any mainline aircraft and many people prefer the 175 over the 319.

alasizon wrote:

American 767 wrote:

alasizon wrote:

The IR update I think comes out on the 8th so we shall have the fleet plan then.

This year I would expect more MD-80s, 767s and A320s to leave the fleet but I would not expect any 757 retirement. All remaining 34 757s are staying at least till early next year, if not longer. I wouldn't expect either any A333 or E190 phase out as those aren't due to leave the fleet before next year, if not two years from now.

A319: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
A332: no change either. No new delivery, maybe yes if they decide to swap the A359 order to more A332s, but otherwise no new delivery. No phase out.
77E: no change. No new delivery, no phase out.
77W: no change. No new delivery, unless they decide to order a couple more of those should they need those for expansion, but I'm not sure they will buy more of those. Definitely no phase out.

All the deliveries of the 738s of the current generation as well as the A321s OEOs are now concluded. No A321NEO delivery yet as those are coming only next year. What we will see is more 737-8MAX coming.

A decision is likely to be made this year about what they will do with the 22 A359s on order. They have to make a decision. They can't think and postpone for ever.

I think the biggest changes will be on the Eagle side; AA has room in the large RJ scope clause but not enough room in the overall RJ clause and still a few too many 50 seaters.

By year-end:
DH3: All leaving this year
ERD: I'd expect them to all be gone by end of year again
ER4: Likely going to stick with 30 or so for Envoy plus 60 for Piedmont
CRJ: I'd expect PSA fleet to begin leaving this year, Piedmont can cover in markets back east where 50 seaters are crucial and other markets can be upgauaged to the CR7 which also counts as a small RJ when at 65 seats. Lets say we have 25 by end of year
CR7: I foresee all of the Envoy CR7s to finish their transition to PSA this year. I'd like to see a top-off for PSA & Skywest (would be the first new build 700s in a while). I think a final fleet around 150 would be good (70 PSA, 50 OO, 20 EV)..
CR9: No changes
E175: I'd expect the Envoy deliveries to continue up to 54 birds. EOY would be at 158 by my count

Large RJ: 276 (Cap 329)
Total RJ: 541 (Cap 610)

No way the ERD's go in 2018. Envoy is planning on reactivating the entire fleet, not shrinking the fleet. I'd count on EV disappearing from the AA brand as well, as Skywest will claim they can't keep a 20 airplane CRJ certificate going, and fold it into OO.

I don't think the wholly owned carriers park anything, AA is going to need them to fill the gaps of placing failing, like Mesa and Transtates.

DiamondFlyer wrote:

No way the ERD's go in 2018. Envoy is planning on reactivating the entire fleet, not shrinking the fleet. I'd count on EV disappearing from the AA brand as well, as Skywest will claim they can't keep a 20 airplane CRJ certificate going, and fold it into OO.

Reactivating the entire fleet? That is the first I've heard about that, I expected maybe 15-20 to hang around until replacement lift was found. If that is the case, I'd be interest to see the markets they deploy them in as the ERD offers very little that the ER4 doesn't.

I agree with the EV/OO merge together for AA ops even if the final solution is OO shifts the birds from one certificate to another and tells the pilots to find another base. If that was the case, there would be a lot more CR7 flexibility because of the single pilot group and I think you'd see added flights in PHX & ORD with less CR7s in DFW. There are still 22 more EV CR7s that need homes once they leave DL that haven't been claimed yet. Perhaps OO will just shift the birds to the OO certificate and have them fly under the AA banner. They are already configured at 65 seats so they would be "small RJs".

alasizon wrote:

DiamondFlyer wrote:

No way the ERD's go in 2018. Envoy is planning on reactivating the entire fleet, not shrinking the fleet. I'd count on EV disappearing from the AA brand as well, as Skywest will claim they can't keep a 20 airplane CRJ certificate going, and fold it into OO.

Reactivating the entire fleet? That is the first I've heard about that, I expected maybe 15-20 to hang around until replacement lift was found. If that is the case, I'd be interest to see the markets they deploy them in as the ERD offers very little that the ER4 doesn't.

I agree with the EV/OO merge together for AA ops even if the final solution is OO shifts the birds from one certificate to another and tells the pilots to find another base. If that was the case, there would be a lot more CR7 flexibility because of the single pilot group and I think you'd see added flights in PHX & ORD with less CR7s in DFW. There are still 22 more EV CR7s that need homes once they leave DL that haven't been claimed yet. Perhaps OO will just shift the birds to the OO certificate and have them fly under the AA banner. They are already configured at 65 seats so they would be "small RJs".

There was another thread here on A.net in the last few days about it, something about Eagle thread. EV is a dead man walking, totally.

Since the repaint has been completed, the thread title has been updated to "AA Fleet Updates".

✈️ atcsundevil

alasizon wrote:

Narfish641 wrote:

Swadian wrote:

Yes, but AA has rolling banks at their biggest hubs where there are very few flights between "superbanks" with exclusive connections at both hub ends. AA also has lots of redundancy between PHX/DFW/ORD/CLT. If one hub is overloaded they can shift capacity to another.

That being said, if AA launches something like PHL-HNL I could see the A332 on it.

The PHX/DFW/ORD redundancy is heavily used (particularly AM redundancy). As an example, in B3 for PHX (currently the 11:00 departure bank), the inbound CLT that is currently on the 330 has on average 200+ connecting pax all within that bank and the majority of them are to California markets or unique markets out of PHX. The ability to duplicate that via DFW/ORD simply doesn't exist right now because DFW/ORD and their respective arrivals from CLT for the similarly timed westbound banks are equally as full. Quite frankly I think AA is in need of extra Hub-Hub capacity on PHX-DFW/CLT/PHL; DFW-LAX/PHX/CLT and CLT-DFW/PHX/PHL and I see no real way for them to add the capacity while staying in bank without running flights as wingtips (which PHX/CLT-DFW already does and its confusing for passengers) or upgauging select flights to widebodies. I think a dedicated group of domestic widebodies would allow far better connecting options for AA passengers that use the PHX/DFW/CLT trio that start/end in an Eagle operated market.

I see your point, the hole being that AA currently has the A333s and are barely putting any of them on the routes you mentioned. Putting flights to exclusive destinations on alternating hubs would do the trick given availability of slots since some hub-to-hub flights are flying with empty seats and I presume that is what AA is doing. Beefing up ORD and putting more A321s on major routes over 738s or A320s would help as well. For example, AA currently has 738s flying some CLT-DFW and even SFO-MIA (which used to be all-757).

Also, most of those flights overfly hubs; for example DFW-LAX overflies PHX. This is also why they don't need A333s for PHX-Hawaii as pax east of DFW can connect through DFW and pax west of PHX connect through LAX. Heck, they were (rumored) going to put 7M8s on PHX-Hawaii; however it's all 752 for now.

alasizon wrote:

Reactivating the entire fleet? That is the first I've heard about that, I expected maybe 15-20 to hang around until replacement lift was found. If that is the case, I'd be interest to see the markets they deploy them in as the ERD offers very little that the ER4 doesn't.

It was a surprising claim. I guess the one thing an ERD has in its favor is that it's immediately available for service and can fly a route that there is no slack for the ER4 fleet to cover.

alasizon wrote:

Wingtips56 wrote:

Just wondering ... since AA seems to have a pilot contract covering the E-190 as a mainline fleet, is there room to expand the fleet in that size? Whether it be more E-190/195, E2 or even CS100 down the road, does AA need more small mainliners? There is a big gap in size between the Eagle E-170/175 and the A319. The in-between size could bridge some markets that are too big for the Eagles and too marginal for the A-319, especially in view of the CS series eventually showing up at DL. If AA stays with Embraer, that would seem a logical flow-through point for the Eagle pilots "graduating" to mainline.

The E190 is on its way out and will be retired by end of 2019. AA seems to be happy at the moment with no 100 seat aircraft and instead just increasing frequencies or fares (and thereby yields). The E175 is a capable aircraft by all means and there is very limited service differential between the 175 and any mainline aircraft and many people prefer the 175 over the 319.

The E175 is waaaay better than the A319. The only thing the A319 has on the E175 is IFE and all that does is take up foot room because of the under seat boxes.

Swadian wrote:

This is also why they don't need A333s for PHX-Hawaii as pax east of DFW can connect through DFW and pax west of PHX connect through LAX. Heck, they were (rumored) going to put 7M8s on PHX-Hawaii; however it's all 752 for now.

Might want to double check that. AAL692, PHX-HNL has been a 333 since 15Dec.

AA usually updates future fleet guidance concurrently with its earning announcements or around the same time. I’d like to see it acquire the A350 because it looks like a passenger friendlier plane than the 777 in coach, but I don’t see the business case for it at this point given the current makeup of AA’s fleet and some challenges in Pacific routes. Acquiring more 332s makes some sense as opposed to incurring financial penalties for an A350 cancellation, but not with so many 787s on hand.

AAplat4life wrote:

Acquiring more 332s makes some sense as opposed to incurring financial penalties for an A350 cancellation, but not with so many 787s on hand.

And potentially 58 more 787 via options on the books as well.

panam330 wrote:

Swadian wrote:

This is also why they don't need A333s for PHX-Hawaii as pax east of DFW can connect through DFW and pax west of PHX connect through LAX. Heck, they were (rumored) going to put 7M8s on PHX-Hawaii; however it's all 752 for now.

Might want to double check that. AAL692, PHX-HNL has been a 333 since 15Dec.

I stand corrected. Looks like seasonal CLT-PHX-HNL.

What about the mismatched CRJ fleet?

What does AA have - 2/3 configurations for the CR7 and 3 for the CR9. How hard is it to make it universal? In certain parts of the country as an elite, you have a much better chance of upgrading on CR7's or CR9's because they have 9 and 12 F seats respectively. Out in the west it's usually F6 and F9 respectively.

n7371f wrote:

What about the mismatched CRJ fleet?

What does AA have - 2/3 configurations for the CR7 and 3 for the CR9. How hard is it to make it universal? In certain parts of the country as an elite, you have a much better chance of upgrading on CR7's or CR9's because they have 9 and 12 F seats respectively. Out in the west it's usually F6 and F9 respectively.

I believe the plan is eventually to standardize the CR9 config at 12F/64Y. The CR7 config is based purely on if they want to count them as a large or small RJ and that is how the OO ones came from UA.

Seems like there was a recent 763ER retirement we forgot about. N388AA was retired on 12/30/17 and flew from MIA to some airport in Alabama. It was 23 years of age, most likely to be converted like all the other 763ER. 23 remain.

[threeid][/threeid]

Narfish641 wrote:

Seems like there was a recent 763ER retirement we forgot about. N388AA was retired on 12/30/17 and flew from MIA to some airport in Alabama. It was 23 years of age, most likely to be converted like all the other 763ER. 23 remain.

When I looked at the activity for this airport in Alabama (BFM), N757AN (772) and N9023N (LAA 319) recently landed there. What work is being performed at BFM?

When I looked at the activity for this airport in Alabama (BFM), N757AN (772) and N9023N (LAA 319) recently landed there. What work is being performed at BFM?

I honesty have no idea. It's actually quite strange to see them there to be perfectly honest.

Maybe the aircraft are getting the new Satellite Wifi installed at BFM? just a guess though.

miaami wrote:

Maybe the aircraft are getting the new Satellite Wifi installed at BFM? just a guess though.

That would make sense for the 772 but I thought the LAA 319s already had the satellite (2Ku) WiFi installed on them.

The first IR update of the year came out today and didn't contain a 2018 Fleet Plan which tends to indicate to me they are in negotiations somewhere for adding some sort of additional equipment or retaining something for longer than planned.

End of year 2017 numbers:
319 - 125
320 - 48
321 - 219
332 - 15
333 - 9
738 - 304
38M - 4
752 - 34
763 - 24
772 - 47
773 - 20
788 - 20
789 - 14
E90 - 20
S80 - 45

CRJ - 68
CR7 - 110
CR9 - 118
DH1 - 3
DH3 - 11
E75 - 148
ERD - 21
ER4 - 118

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... U9MQ==&t=1

Narfish641 wrote:

Seems like there was a recent 763ER retirement we forgot about. N388AA was retired on 12/30/17 and flew from MIA to some airport in Alabama. It was 23 years of age, most likely to be converted like all the other 763ER. 23 remain.

763 N389AA has been there at BFM as well for 17 weeks. I thought it was a C-check but now I’m starting to wonder?

jgcotter wrote:

Narfish641 wrote:

Seems like there was a recent 763ER retirement we forgot about. N388AA was retired on 12/30/17 and flew from MIA to some airport in Alabama. It was 23 years of age, most likely to be converted like all the other 763ER. 23 remain.

763 N389AA has been there at BFM as well for 17 weeks. I thought it was a C-check but now I’m starting to wonder?

A lot of that 763 work at BFM is fleet exit work before getting sent up to ILN and its new operator. 377 should be departing ILN to TLV today so we may see a shuffle soon.

alasizon wrote:

miaami wrote:

Maybe the aircraft are getting the new Satellite Wifi installed at BFM? just a guess though.

That would make sense for the 772 but I thought the LAA 319s already had the satellite (2Ku) WiFi installed on them.

Nope, they have Gogo’s ATG-4 system.

Narfish641 wrote:

Seems like there was a recent 763ER retirement we forgot about. N388AA was retired on 12/30/17 and flew from MIA to some airport in Alabama. It was 23 years of age, most likely to be converted like all the other 763ER. 23 remain.

If IR says 24x 763 then has N388AA not been retired and is just going for work? If it is indeed retired, it would be the first 763 with the new Thompson Vantage J seats to go.

alasizon wrote:

The first IR update of the year came out today and didn't contain a 2018 Fleet Plan which tends to indicate to me they are in negotiations somewhere for adding some sort of additional equipment or retaining something for longer than planned.

I wonder if this has to do with A359 negotiations or if the S80s are staying yet longer due to RJ reshuffling.

zw cr2 n410aw is at CAE for transfer to uax. This was the last aircraft in usx paint at aa.

The 2018 fleet plan is going to be very interesting. If my calculations are correct, then AA is going to face a fleet crunch in 2018 that will carry over into 2019 as well.

By 2019, they are scheduled to retire the following mainline narrow body aircraft

MD-80 - 45 planes
E-190 - 20 planes

The problem is they are only scheduled to receive 16 planes in 2018 and 45 planes in 2019

2018
16 737 Max 8

2019
20 737 Max 8
25 A321neo

Those 61 deliveries do not offset the 45 MD-80s and 20 E-190s that AA has said will be removed from the fleet by 2019.

On the wide body side they have said that they plan on retiring all 9 A330-300 by 2019, but they only have 8 or 9 more 787-9s to be delivered in the next two years which doesn’t leave any room to retire 767-300ERs.

The fleet crunch on the regional side is arguably even worse. They will lose the remaining ~30 or so Air Wisconsin CRJ2s by Feb 2018 along with 11 DH8-300s by July.

They have 38 E-140s that can be re-activated and they are supposed to get 8 CRJ7s that will be flown by ExpressJet, but I personally think it is doubtful that Envoy can hire enough pilots to staff the 38 E-140s and I think ExpressJet staffing the existing 12 CRJ7s much less 8 additional ones is doubtful. AA is supposed to get a few E-175s toward the end of the year with a few more deliveries in 2019.

What is the life span of CRJ2s and E-145s? There hasn’t been a 50 seater delivered in over a decade and at some point these high cycle planes are going to wear out.

GoHokies wrote:

The 2018 fleet plan is going to be very interesting. If my calculations are correct, then AA is going to face a fleet crunch in 2018 that will carry over into 2019 as well.

By 2019, they are scheduled to retire the following mainline narrow body aircraft

MD-80 - 45 planes
E-190 - 20 planes

The problem is they are only scheduled to receive 16 planes in 2018 and 45 planes in 2019

2018
16 737 Max 8

2019
20 737 Max 8
25 A321neo

Those 61 deliveries do not offset the 45 MD-80s and 20 E-190s that AA has said will be removed from the fleet by 2019.

On the wide body side they have said that they plan on retiring all 9 A330-300 by 2019, but they only have 8 or 9 more 787-9s to be delivered in the next two years which doesn’t leave any room to retire 767-300ERs.

The fleet crunch on the regional side is arguably even worse. They will lose the remaining ~30 or so Air Wisconsin CRJ2s by Feb 2018 along with 11 DH8-300s by July.

They have 38 E-140s that can be re-activated and they are supposed to get 8 CRJ7s that will be flown by ExpressJet, but I personally think it is doubtful that Envoy can hire enough pilots to staff the 38 E-140s and I think ExpressJet staffing the existing 12 CRJ7s much less 8 additional ones is doubtful. AA is supposed to get a few E-175s toward the end of the year with a few more deliveries in 2019.

What is the life span of CRJ2s and E-145s? There hasn’t been a 50 seater delivered in over a decade and at some point these high cycle planes are going to wear out.

The MQ E175s currently on order are exercised options. There are still several dozen options left. As the E145s go the Piedmont, the E140s will stay to help alleviate the need need left by Whiskey.

No doubt more E175s will come to Envoy beyond the 10x on order. It will take a few years, but Envoy will be mostly E175, perhaps as soon as 2020.

Good analysis!

I believe that the MD-80s will hang around for a bit longer..just as a stop gap. Others on this forum have the same belief. And I thought I saw somewhere where the A 330-300s may also stick around a bit longer than first planned..AA actually has some flex in the plan.

Tan Flyr wrote:

I believe that the MD-80s will hang around for a bit longer..just as a stop gap. Others on this forum have the same belief. And I thought I saw somewhere where the A 330-300s may also stick around a bit longer than first planned..AA actually has some flex in the plan.

If AA keeps the MD-80s and reduces domestic widebody flying a little bit, they could have enough 787s and 767s to cover off-season schedules. I believe the A359s were supposed to fill in for A333 retirements but that may not happen now so AA may need to order more 789s soon.

People keep saying that the MD-80s won't be repainted, but if they keep postponing the final retirement of those then they may change their mind about this. I don't know if they will but if they do I won't be surprised. Under the original fleet plan, the last MD-80 would have lave left the fleet by now already. Of course I would not expect all 45 of them to be repainted, but at least one, if they decide to still keep a few MD=80s past 2019.

I don't think they have too much wiggle room with the MD80 fleet. Maybe a few extra weeks per aircraft but I understand that in 2020 a significant structural AD must be accomplished, that's the real drop dead on those aircraft.

I don't see what's wrong with keeping a few 767-300ERs in the fleet until the 787-9 are delivered (Dispite the small numbers), quite a few of them are around 13 years of age. So they are still useful.

I also think a few MD-80s will make it to the paint shop.