Happy new year. Its time for a new thread. I have moved one post accordingly into this thread.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1337303&p=18973807#p18973807

flymco753 wrote:

With SFB’s terminal expansion, do we see any more entrants for SFB? Particularly international, something along the lines of Dynamic or the new Canadian ULCCs?

I’m also impressed with the terazzo flooring inside the main terminal at MCO, the rennovations make the check in area like no other airport.

I recently worked a flight through MCO.

I was really impressed with the check-in area on the A side, it was still going through a lot of construction, however, the large digital screens behind the check-in desks were rather impressive and modern which was a nice change from the 80s theme they've been carrying for the past few decades.

When is all the check-in area refurbishment scheduled to be completed.

Also, does anyone know who is planning on moving to the southern International complex when it opens? It's not scheduled to open for a few years, as I recall it's only going to be about ten gates tho which should open up options for about 50-80+ flights, depending on aircraft size and turn times.

SQ22 wrote:

Happy new year. It's time for a new thread. I have moved one post accordingly into this thread.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1337303&p=18973807#p18973807

Starting to get annoying with mods starting new threads and closing old ones just because it is 2018.

But anyway....

Here are my general predictions from 2017, some happened and many didn't (as expected)

dabpit wrote:

*DY adding service to ARN, BCN, DUB, TXL, EZE
*Further expansion by NK and F9
~F9: SJU, PWM, PHX, SLC, MIA, MEM, SAT, BUF, ABQ (long shots maybe even 2018 OKC, LIT, FSD, FAR, BIS, BIL)
~NK: ROC, ALB, SDF, MDT, IND, GRR, LIT, BKG, DEN (was published on their route map by mistake)
*F9 adding some international routes
~CUN, KIN, MBJ, PUJ, GUA, SJO, PTY, BOG, MDE, CLO, CTG, SXM, AUA
*LATAM adding more flights: make SCL year round, bring BSB back, add GIG, BOG, and EZE
*More year-round service to Canada
~Places like YVR, YWG, YHZ, YYC, YQB
*Azul bring back CNF, increase REC frequencies, add BSB
*Increased service to Mexico with Volaris
~Daily MEX, 4x week GDL, add 2x week to TIJ
*Eurowings adding service to MUC and VIE
*WOW air start service to KEF
*See the addition of TAP Portugal to LIS
*See the addition of LOT Polish to WAW
*airberlin adding TXL
*jetBlue adding LAS, PHX, PWM, PIT, SFO, FLL, ATL (we already know it is coming)
*Southwest adding OAK, SJC, SEA, PDX, SLC, DSM

Here are my predictions for 2018. Keep in mind that some of these are long shots and may not happen. Some cities are listed multiple times but only look for one of the carriers to start a city listed more than once.
For MCO:
*DY adding service to BCN and FCO
*Further expansion by NK and F9
~F9: PWM, SLC, MIA, ABQ, LIT, FSD, FAR, BIS, BIL
~NK: ROC, ALB, SDF, MDT, IND, GRR, LIT, BKG
*F9 adding some international routes
~GUA, SJO, PTY, BOG, MDE, CLO, CTG, AUA, YHM, YOW, YQB, YUL, YHZ
*LATAM adding more flights: make SCL year round, bring BSB back, add BOG and EZE
*Avianca add SAL back
*Year-round service to YVR
*Azul add BSB, BEL, MAO
*Eurowings adding service to MUC, VIE, TXL (a long shot for these)
*WOWair start service to KEF
*See the addition of TAP Portugal to LIS

For SFB:
*At least two new carries start service
~One from Canada and one from the Caribbean
*G4 announces/starts international flights
~STI, SDQ, PUJ, MBJ, KIN, AUA, CUN, MID, CZM

dabpit wrote:

SQ22 wrote:

Happy new year. It's time for a new thread. I have moved one post accordingly into this thread.

Link to previous thread:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1337303&p=18973807#p18973807

Starting to get annoying with mods starting new threads and closing old ones just because it is 2018.

But anyway....

Here are my general predictions from 2017, some happened and many didn't (as expected)

dabpit wrote:

*DY adding service to ARN, BCN, DUB, TXL, EZE
*Further expansion by NK and F9
~F9: SJU, PWM, PHX, SLC, MIA, MEM, SAT, BUF, ABQ (long shots maybe even 2018 OKC, LIT, FSD, FAR, BIS, BIL)
~NK: ROC, ALB, SDF, MDT, IND, GRR, LIT, BKG, DEN (was published on their route map by mistake)
*F9 adding some international routes
~CUN, KIN, MBJ, PUJ, GUA, SJO, PTY, BOG, MDE, CLO, CTG, SXM, AUA
*LATAM adding more flights: make SCL year round, bring BSB back, add GIG, BOG, and EZE
*More year-round service to Canada
~Places like YVR, YWG, YHZ, YYC, YQB
*Azul bring back CNF, increase REC frequencies, add BSB
*Increased service to Mexico with Volaris
~Daily MEX, 4x week GDL, add 2x week to TIJ
*Eurowings adding service to MUC and VIE
*WOW air start service to KEF
*See the addition of TAP Portugal to LIS
*See the addition of LOT Polish to WAW
*airberlin adding TXL
*jetBlue adding LAS, PHX, PWM, PIT, SFO, FLL, ATL (we already know it is coming)
*Southwest adding OAK, SJC, SEA, PDX, SLC, DSM

Here are my predictions for 2018. Keep in mind that some of these are long shots and may not happen. Some cities are listed multiple times but only look for one of the carriers to start a city listed more than once.
For MCO:
*DY adding service to BCN and FCO
*Further expansion by NK and F9
~F9: PWM, SLC, MIA, ABQ, LIT, FSD, FAR, BIS, BIL
~NK: ROC, ALB, SDF, MDT, IND, GRR, LIT, BKG
*F9 adding some international routes
~GUA, SJO, PTY, BOG, MDE, CLO, CTG, AUA, YHM, YOW, YQB, YUL, YHZ
*LATAM adding more flights: make SCL year round, bring BSB back, add BOG and EZE
*Avianca add SAL back
*Year-round service to YVR
*Azul add BSB, BEL, MAO
*Eurowings adding service to MUC, VIE, TXL (a long shot for these)
*WOWair start service to KEF
*See the addition of TAP Portugal to LIS

For SFB:
*At least two new carries start service
~One from Canada and one from the Caribbean
*G4 announces/starts international flights
~STI, SDQ, PUJ, MBJ, KIN, AUA, CUN, MID, CZM

Is there a market in FL to these destinations? Snowbirds? The reason I ask is because G4 does not do connections............Normally. That may change for international destinations.

william wrote:

Is there a market in FL to these destinations? Snowbirds? The reason I ask is because G4 does not do connections............Normally. That may change for international destinations.

Folks here still like to vacation and all of those markets have resorts. If service was started it would only be once or twice a week. I would not bet any money on G4 offering connections for many years (if ever) even when they start international flights.

It looks like Delta cut a decent amount of p2p for Apr/May

The only p2p that for both Apr and May is IND/CMH/RDU/BNA/GRU/MIA-MCO

bluefltspecial wrote:

Also, does anyone know who is planning on moving to the southern International complex when it opens? It's not scheduled to open for a few years, as I recall it's only going to be about ten gates tho which should open up options for about 50-80+ flights, depending on aircraft size and turn times.

B6 has first dibs on those gates and is planning on it. They want their own dedicated space to transform to their liking , like they have done at LGA/JFK/LGB

flymco753 wrote:

Let’s say DL adds BSB back and than adds SJU, would that finally classify us as a Delta focus city?

Why are you obsessed with this particular question? The "focus city" is an amorphous concept and a marketing designation more than anything else.

I think the seat and revenues numbers, and the presence of a flight crew base, show unequivocally that MCO is one of DL's largest stations. Not far behind are TPA and FLL. They are exceptional stations for the airline, especially Orlando. MCO, and perhaps TPA/FLL, have more seats than RDU, for example. The distinction is rhetorical.

Updated wth numbers, always good:

DL 2015 Top Markets by O&D Revenue
9. MCO - $406.7M
10. SEA - $401.4M
14. CVG - $265.9M
15. TPA - $245.9M
16. FLL - $245.5M
20. RDU - $233.1M

SEA, CVG, RDU are hubs or focus cities, but performed below MCO in 2015 O&D revenue for DL. Of these, SEA is obviously the outlier in terms of being a significant connection hub. I don't know enough about that operation to comment on how that changes the overall revenue portrait (which, of course, it will). However, I think these numbers are illuminating in their own right. They show how functionally important MCO and other large FL stations are from a revenue volume perspective.

(From a yield perspective, the numbers are different, of course. This cohort from highest to lowest: CVG, RDU, TPA, MCO, FLL, SEA).

Source: http://sixelconsulting.com/Data/reports ... Sample.pdf

flymco753 wrote:

axiom wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Let’s say DL adds BSB back and than adds SJU, would that finally classify us as a Delta focus city?

Why are you obsessed with this particular question? The "focus city" is an amorphous concept and a marketing designation more than anything else.

I think the seat and revenues numbers, and the presence of a flight crew base, show unequivocally that MCO is one of DL's largest stations. Not far behind are TPA and FLL. They are exceptional stations for the airline, especially Orlando. MCO, and perhaps TPA/FLL, have more seats than RDU, for example. The distinction is rhetorical.

Thanks for the details below, definitely eye opening, I'm sure with the addition of AMS that number will increase. Apparently advanced bookings are looking great, so I hope that opens MCO-CDG as well.

I'm obsessed because I think in terms of what MCO offers or what can be offered has great potential to have an operation similar to BOS if DL added an SJU mainline, AUS and MSY on RJ's, weekend flights from MSN, MBS, and ORF and internationally, brought back BSB and potentially add EZE. Not to mention, AMS-MEX can be done with DL and AM connecting in MCO or YYZ-GRU on WS to MCO and DL to GRU.

Data definitely helps to appreciate market dynamics.

There are probably lots of opportunities for P2P service from Orlando, but the geographical position and the issue of yield/competition limit its usefulness as a connecting center beyond a few exceptions (like GRU). AMS-MCO-MEX is pretty much a no-go because of US visa requirements -- it's only US-overseas connections that are really possible given those connections. I don't see what DL won't continue to make strategic adds at markets like MCO. In season, there is incredible demand that can absorb excess system capacity.

GOL has announced a return to MCO starting Novemeber 4th, 2018 to BSB and FOR.

G3 7600 BSB 0950 MCO 1450
G3 7601 MCO 2130 BSB 0820 +1

G3 7654 FOR 0835 MCO 1425
G3 7655 MCO 2145 FOR 0715 +1

flymco753 wrote:

dabpit wrote:

GOL has announced a return to MCO starting Novemeber 4th, 2018 to BSB and FOR.

G3 7600 BSB 0950 MCO 1450
G3 7601 MCO 2130 BSB 0820 +1

G3 7654 FOR 0835 MCO 1425
G3 7655 MCO 2145 FOR 0715 +1

Wow! I never realized FOR-MCO would get 2 airlines, this could be a potentially great option for those going from XXX-MCO on DL and MCO-FOR/BSB on GOL! I assume they're going to 4.

FOR and BSB are great connecting structures within GOL network and the flights are timed to hit the banks.
They will focus on connecting MIA and MCO to South, Midwest and Southeast Brazil through BSB and North and Northeast through FOR. Operated by 7M8

Final #s for 2017?

Did MCO beat MIA?

Final numbers for 2017 are not out yet. Maybe by Wednesday.

Clipper136 wrote:

Final numbers for 2017 are not out yet. Maybe by Wednesday.

Isn't this it?

https://orlandoairports.net/press/2018/ ... -november/

flymco753 wrote:

Also today is the first arrival for Edelweiss from Zurich, is anyone else going up to the airport to watch it?

I might depending on whether or not I can make it. I've seen it at TPA so many times, that I'm probably too jaded to it. On a side note, I just created a new FB Group for Tampa and Orlando spotters yesterday, feel free to join it and post photos from the Edelweiss inaugural in it!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2121611 ... 6/?fref=nf

Edelweiss inaugural is currently making the turn to line up with Runway 36L/R on the west side, on final approach as of 6:41PM.

neomax wrote:

Clipper136 wrote:

Final numbers for 2017 are not out yet. Maybe by Wednesday.

Isn't this it?

I'm sorry. I always thought there was another month in the year called December. My bad!

Congrats on the return of WK. one of my favorite birds in the sky.

I wonder if WK is selling holiday packages with joint MCO-TPA itineraries. The best of Central Florida. Surely there's a market in that. I live in the UK and see MT shops with a mix of MCO/TPA/MIA itineraries posted for sale on the windows, but of course the flights route through MCO and MIA.

flymco753 wrote:

Now I'm patiently waiting for DY to add MCO-EZE, at that point a lot of voids will be filled other than an LHR flight. I'm still pondering the Tokyo option, ANA and JAL seem like logical fits, AA or UA won't do it, but could DL do it on a 77L without any restrictions?

Largest unserved routes in a nutshell:

1. MCO-LHR
2. MCO-LHR
3. MCO-LHR
4. MCO-EZE
5. MCO-NRT

flymco753 wrote:

neomax wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Now I'm patiently waiting for DY to add MCO-EZE, at that point a lot of voids will be filled other than an LHR flight. I'm still pondering the Tokyo option, ANA and JAL seem like logical fits, AA or UA won't do it, but could DL do it on a 77L without any restrictions?

Largest unserved routes in a nutshell:

1. MCO-LHR
2. MCO-LHR
3. MCO-LHR
4. MCO-EZE
5. MCO-NRT

To put it short, yes! It's almost a sure deal with DY doing EZE, everyone seems to be leaning towards BA doing LHR although I think it'd be good for Delta, especially if they could move the slot over from PHL and run a 332. NRT will be an interesting development, it's also something DL could hypothetically do, although I would suspect ANA or JAL first.

My gut tells me that ANA is going to go for MCO because they know if JAL makes a move, it's going to MIA. EZE is practically a matter of time considering that MCO and MIA are the first hits from anywhere in South America (look no further than GOL) and with Norwegian Argentina, the writing is on the wall for EZE. LHR is the one that bugs everyone. BA should do it but I doubt they will. To be completely honest, I'm amazed anyone still flies BA when you have both DY and VS not to mention MT, all three of which blow BA out of the water, but I digress. To be completely honest, BA will never do it, VS should do it but probably won't, DY probably will stick with LGW because it allows them to keep fares down. DL is the only one that actually makes sense, but CDG will have to come first. The good news is that CDG will definitely be added at some point, and at that point, DL may seriously start looking at LHR. That said, I emailed Ed Bastian in January of last year and got the following response:

Hello neomax,

Thank you for your recent e-mail regarding your interest in a potential Delta London (Heathrow)-Orlando operation.

Our Network Planning team is constantly evaluating opportunities to maximize Delta’s profits through optimal deployment of our aircraft assets. To that end, as I’m sure you’ve noticed, we have recently launched or announced a number of new Heathrow routes, including Salt Lake City and Portland, in cooperation with our joint venture partner, Virgin Atlantic.

We have also studied the potential for London-Orlando, and while it is undoubtedly a high-volume market, the demand remains very much skewed towards leisure travel, with only 4% of total industry bookings made in the premium cabin, compared with 19% for the U.S.-London market as a whole.

Moreover, the recent strength of the U.S. dollar against the British pound makes for an especially challenging revenue environment in Orlando, where 90% of traffic originates in the UK; when pound-denominated fares are converted back into dollars, at the current exchange rate, they are worth roughly 15% less, in dollars, than they were just six short months ago.

These two factors, among others, would make it difficult for Delta to profitably launch an Orlando-Heathrow service at the present time, but please know that we are constantly reviewing such opportunities and that it certainly will continue to receive consideration as economic conditions evolve.

Regards

Since then, DL has launched MCO-AMS, so I'm wondering if anything has changed...

flymco753 wrote:

neomax wrote:

Since then, DL has launched MCO-AMS, so I'm wondering if anything has changed...

Interesting, good inside information to base that off of. It'll be tricky to find someone to do LHR, it'll happen one day by someone, I'm pretty confident.

The issue that MCO faces with LHR is that if you're flying to London itself and not connecting, it doesn't make a difference whether you fly to LGW or LHR. The even bigger problem is that if MCO wants to connect traffic, simply landing a flight to LHR isn't going to do shit, it's BA that has to do it, and they're the least likely to do it. This is essentially the gridlock which has prevented MCO from getting a route that it should have gotten years ago. There are cities way smaller than MCO that have service to LHR on the basis of connections, but LGW is utilized when O/D traffic is stronger. Based on what I was told in the DL email, 90% of the traffic originates in the UK, which is uniquely problematic for connections at LHR. VS has taken advantage of this by employing a point to point strategy by overflying London completely and flying 747's straight from MAN, GLA, BFS to MCO. This is a fairly rare strategy for any airline other than perhaps DY ironically enough, but VS rules as the undisputed king at MCO because of this model. For a 90% UK point of sale, this is a guaranteed formula for success which is why VS can dump insane amounts of capacity in the summer with 6x 744's a day and still fill all of them with seemingly no limits. LHR is good for a route that has a heavy US point of sale requiring onward connections but sucks for O/D traffic except on very premium routes such JFK-LHR. Aside from a handful of premium routes, BA's strategy at LHR relies heavily on connections, and short UK domestic connections from within the UK to LHR which would be necessary for LHR-MCO to work are not BA's specialty; that is long-haul connections, which is what AUS-LHR, BNA-LHR are targeting. That said, I am desperately hoping for MCO-LHR to come soon and would love to be proven wrong. We shall see.

flymco753 wrote:

*F9 MCO-CUN MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 0.4>0

What do y'all think?

Big disappointment that they could not make it happen.

Final 2017 passenger numbers are in: 44.6 million. Up 6.4% yoy.

MIA passenger total for 2017 is 44.1 million, down 1.5% yoy.

flymco753 wrote:

Soooooo SY added MCO-PDX...thoughts?

My understanding is that SY wants to open bases outside of MSP and MCO is one place they are considering.

MCO officially passed the 45 million passenger mark in February. 45.2 million on a rolling 12 month basis. The Terminal C phase 1 can't come soon enough. MCO has also begun Phase 2 planning. Phase 2 adds 13 gates.