Fex180
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:00 pm

btvhopper wrote:
RE: Growth at BTV

The growth at BTV over the last 12-18 months is almost entirely driven by MHT's struggles. They've gained market share, a lot more mainline (upgrades to A320s and 738s/739s) to ATL, ORD and EWR has driven ticket prices down, often significantly lower than MHT's legacy carriers, which has allowed BTV to gain market share.

The leakage to MHT was previously every corner of Vermont, even Chittenden County (nearly 2.5hr drive), where as now BTV is beginning to pick up the Upper Valley market, which is halfway between the two cities. A tremendous turnaround but it should be noted the market itself is not growing so I'm not sure how much higher the ceiling is.

Still a lot of leakage to BOS for transatlantic flights and business travels who demand direct service to cities like DFW and SFO; not sure what can be done about that.


BOS will always be New England's go-to point for international and premium transcon flights, nothing in the foreseeable future is going to change that. Even if, by some miracle, BTV or PWM pick up a transcon route (LAX, SFO, LAS, SEA) it will almost certainly operate as a single daily or less-than-daily service, which still wouldn't be enough to pull most travelers away from BOS. I think the best these airports can hope for is better mid-continent connection options. Personally I would love to see AA fly DFW - PVD / PWM / BTV. I also dream of a PWM-PDX flight just for the novelty of flying from Portland to Portland :)
 
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dvincent
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:27 pm

VS4ever wrote:
dvincent wrote:
I'll be flying out of ORH to JFK on B6 for the first time next month. Mostly as a curiosity (I've flown from the airport before in a GA context). The fare was $100 RT for a weekend trip. I wonder what the loads have been like.


Did you take the flight yet? If so how was it?


Departing this Saturday. I'll be sure to post the experience.
From the Mind of Minolta
 
B752OS
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:29 am

http://massport.com/media/3010/final_se ... ermark.pdf

Massport during their September board meeting dedicated time to ORH. Some interesting information in the PDF presentation. They note that the catchment area (primary and secondary) for ORH is roughly 1.045 million people. Hopefully this will be enough to support the current services and even lead to future services down the road. They're projecting ORH will handle almost 600,000 passengers in 2018.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:57 pm

B752OS wrote:
http://massport.com/media/3010/final_september-board-deck_92019-website-watermark.pdf

Massport during their September board meeting dedicated time to ORH. Some interesting information in the PDF presentation. They note that the catchment area (primary and secondary) for ORH is roughly 1.045 million people. Hopefully this will be enough to support the current services and even lead to future services down the road. They're projecting ORH will handle almost 600,000 passengers in 2018.


It looks like that is 600,000 cumulative since 2013.
 
B752OS
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:42 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
B752OS wrote:
http://massport.com/media/3010/final_september-board-deck_92019-website-watermark.pdf

Massport during their September board meeting dedicated time to ORH. Some interesting information in the PDF presentation. They note that the catchment area (primary and secondary) for ORH is roughly 1.045 million people. Hopefully this will be enough to support the current services and even lead to future services down the road. They're projecting ORH will handle almost 600,000 passengers in 2018.


It looks like that is 600,000 cumulative since 2013.


You're right, I read it too quick.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:10 pm

B752OS wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
B752OS wrote:
http://massport.com/media/3010/final_september-board-deck_92019-website-watermark.pdf

Massport during their September board meeting dedicated time to ORH. Some interesting information in the PDF presentation. They note that the catchment area (primary and secondary) for ORH is roughly 1.045 million people. Hopefully this will be enough to support the current services and even lead to future services down the road. They're projecting ORH will handle almost 600,000 passengers in 2018.


It looks like that is 600,000 cumulative since 2013.


You're right, I read it too quick.


Even so, that is a big increase, because it wasn't long ago they were celebrating the 300,000th pax through there.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
bloxomo
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:03 am

After checking my usual BDL route after this morning's schedule extension, I was surprised to find some substantial cuts for the upcoming peak season: (daily flights on Jun 5 vs. Aug 1):

BWI 8->5
MCO 3->2
TPA 3->2
FLL 1->0
RSW 1->0

MDW, STL, DEN, remain constant at 3, 1, and 1 respectively.

Terminal A construction at BWI starts before Aug and doesn't explain cuts to FL routes.
 
tphuang
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:47 pm

interesting, good time for B6 to add in a flight on BDL-FLL/MCO.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:18 pm

FLL is redoing a runway this summer so they will be down significantly in available capacity. It’s the north runway too meaning WN would have 30+ minutes of taxi time each flight.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:25 pm

I just helped someone in the Dartmouth area purchase some tickets to Denver. They are in-between btv and mht. BTV was $111 each way multiple airlines all with good one stop flights. MHT the connections were much worse either way too short or too long and the prices were like $300 each way. MHT wasn't even competative today. I think the only hope for MHT is to get fares down or the leakage to BOS and BTV is unavoidable .
 
bloxomo
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:06 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
FLL is redoing a runway this summer so they will be down significantly in available capacity. It’s the north runway too meaning WN would have 30+ minutes of taxi time each flight.


OK, that makes sense for BDL-FLL. Still wondering about the BDL-BWI cuts -- I can't find anything about the impact on existing gates of the upcoming BWI Concourse A extension or an updated schedule.

tphuang wrote:
interesting, good time for B6 to add in a flight on BDL-FLL/MCO.


I was thinking also a good time for someone to add flights at HVN or even ORH.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:37 am

For those interested, just a reminder that Frontier commenced PWM to TPA and RSW this week. They now serve DEN, RDU, MCO, TPA and RSW from PWM. Just tried them on LAS-MCO-PWM two weeks ago for $160 one-way and was satisfied with the experience. Not any better or worse than economy on DL, UA, AA. And the check-in agents, gate agents, and flight attendants were actually upbeat and pleasant.

Service to Porstmouth- PSM starts in a couple more weeks. I think this will be the first established "real" airline to ever serve PSM? Only ones who've ever come here since Pease AFB closed in 1991 are Allegiant, Skybus, Pan Am IV, and Business Express/Delta connection about 24-25 years ago.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:38 am

For those interested, just a reminder that Frontier commenced PWM to TPA and RSW this week. They now serve DEN, RDU, MCO, TPA and RSW from PWM. Just tried them on LAS-MCO-PWM two weeks ago for $160 one-way and was satisfied with the experience. Not any better or worse than economy on DL, UA, AA. And the check-in agents, gate agents, and flight attendants were actually upbeat and pleasant.

Service to Porstmouth- PSM starts in a couple more weeks. I think this will be the first established "real" airline to ever serve PSM? Only ones who've ever come here since Pease AFB closed in 1991 are Allegiant, Skybus, Pan Am IV, and Business Express/Delta connection about 24-25 years ago.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 12:29 pm

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
For those interested, just a reminder that Frontier commenced PWM to TPA and RSW this week. They now serve DEN, RDU, MCO, TPA and RSW from PWM. Just tried them on LAS-MCO-PWM two weeks ago for $160 one-way and was satisfied with the experience. Not any better or worse than economy on DL, UA, AA. And the check-in agents, gate agents, and flight attendants were actually upbeat and pleasant.

Service to Porstmouth- PSM starts in a couple more weeks. I think this will be the first established "real" airline to ever serve PSM? Only ones who've ever come here since Pease AFB closed in 1991 are Allegiant, Skybus, Pan Am IV, and Business Express/Delta connection about 24-25 years ago.


Is there that much difference between Frontier and Allegiant? I haven't flown on either, but from the outside they seem pretty similar. I know that Frontier at least allows you to book connections, but I recall looking at some schedules that seemed to be stretching it, like an overnight layover in DEN.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:01 pm

Although people like to equate the two, I see Allegiant as a carrier held together with duct tape. I see Frontier as more established, with newer planes and more routes.
 
lat41
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:20 pm

Just about all the old MD80s that gave Allegiant much of their problems are gone or soon to be from the fleet. We have both Allegiant and Frontier down at PVD and just subjectively, Allegiant holds to shedule better. Frontier can be more erratic as will be revealed in New Hampshire. As far as connections go, if you can make F9 work in one direction with a 10 hour connecting time, having the flights hitch up in the other direction is a minor miracle.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 2:51 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
pwm2txlhopper wrote:
For those interested, just a reminder that Frontier commenced PWM to TPA and RSW this week. They now serve DEN, RDU, MCO, TPA and RSW from PWM. Just tried them on LAS-MCO-PWM two weeks ago for $160 one-way and was satisfied with the experience. Not any better or worse than economy on DL, UA, AA. And the check-in agents, gate agents, and flight attendants were actually upbeat and pleasant.

Service to Porstmouth- PSM starts in a couple more weeks. I think this will be the first established "real" airline to ever serve PSM? Only ones who've ever come here since Pease AFB closed in 1991 are Allegiant, Skybus, Pan Am IV, and Business Express/Delta connection about 24-25 years ago.


Is there that much difference between Frontier and Allegiant? I haven't flown on either, but from the outside they seem pretty similar. I know that Frontier at least allows you to book connections, but I recall looking at some schedules that seemed to be stretching it, like an overnight layover in DEN.



I'd say Frontier is a lot larger and more established than Allegiant. Nothing wrong with either, though. I've used both without problems. People just like to whine about add on charges because they didn't read the fine print when they booked, old planes, basic service, etc. When you can fly 1200 miles for less than $100, they're a good value for getting somewhere cheap. If a flight is less than five hours, I dont care about lack of inflight entertainment, not getting free soda, no reclining seat, etc. I'd fly on a pallet in a C-130 without complaints if I could fly 1200 miles for $100.

lat41 wrote:
Frontier can be more erratic as will be revealed in New Hampshire. As far as connections go, if you can make F9 work in one direction with a 10 hour connecting time, having the flights hitch up in the other direction is a minor miracle.



That's when I would use them one-way and take another airline home with a better connecting itinary. Two weeks ago when I flew Frontier on LAS-MCO-PWM, total travel time was 9.5 hours. When I take DL or SW back from the West Coast with a connection to PWM, total travel time is usually 7-8 hours. So even going via Florida, the added travel time was minimal from if I had used DTW, ATL, or BWI.

Used DL going westbound because the times were better than what F9 could offer between PWM and LAX with an all night layover in DEN.

chrisnh wrote:
Although people like to equate the two, I see Allegiant as a carrier held together with duct tape. I see Frontier as more established, with newer planes and more routes.



People just like to bash them when for being a no frill budget airline. They've been around a couple decades and consistently make a profit, even during the years the other airlines were almost going bankrupt. I don't believe either has had any catastrophic accidents or deaths? (The major carriers all have) They must be doing something right?
 
aaflyer777
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:18 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
pwm2txlhopper wrote:
For those interested, just a reminder that Frontier commenced PWM to TPA and RSW this week. They now serve DEN, RDU, MCO, TPA and RSW from PWM. Just tried them on LAS-MCO-PWM two weeks ago for $160 one-way and was satisfied with the experience. Not any better or worse than economy on DL, UA, AA. And the check-in agents, gate agents, and flight attendants were actually upbeat and pleasant.

Service to Porstmouth- PSM starts in a couple more weeks. I think this will be the first established "real" airline to ever serve PSM? Only ones who've ever come here since Pease AFB closed in 1991 are Allegiant, Skybus, Pan Am IV, and Business Express/Delta connection about 24-25 years ago.


Is there that much difference between Frontier and Allegiant? I haven't flown on either, but from the outside they seem pretty similar. I know that Frontier at least allows you to book connections, but I recall looking at some schedules that seemed to be stretching it, like an overnight layover in DEN.


Model/price wise they're pretty much the same, the biggest issue with Allegiant is that their planes are very poorly maintained. They've had a lot of emergency landings and close calls in the past few years due to crappy maintenance.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:37 pm

Hi all, I tend to post most of my stats on the BOS thread, but I do keep an eye on the other New England States too, so i've had a chance to run some numbers and here they are:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=15G6hi ... geDQ6VPDuq

I've pulled Domestic numbers through August (YTD, QTD and Month) and International for RI and CT through May from the T-100's. I've filtered down to the biggest routes.
Due to time-pressures, I've not gone into the details I usually do, but should give you an idea of what's going on. There's a tab for each state.

At the very least it can drive some additional talking points.. any questions, please let me know, there is more data behind the scenes that I don't show here, so if it's available, I will gladly look into any questions for you.

Enjoy.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
georgiabill
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 5:48 pm

Hoping NK considers MHT in the future. I could see them trying MHT-FLL, MHT-MCO and a long shot MHT-DEN( more likely a F9 if they were to try MHT) but one can wish.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:55 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Hi all, I tend to post most of my stats on the BOS thread, but I do keep an eye on the other New England States too, so i've had a chance to run some numbers and here they are:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=15G6hi ... geDQ6VPDuq

I've pulled Domestic numbers through August (YTD, QTD and Month) and International for RI and CT through May from the T-100's. I've filtered down to the biggest routes.
Due to time-pressures, I've not gone into the details I usually do, but should give you an idea of what's going on. There's a tab for each state.

At the very least it can drive some additional talking points.. any questions, please let me know, there is more data behind the scenes that I don't show here, so if it's available, I will gladly look into any questions for you.

Enjoy.


This is nice - thanks for putting it together!

Seeing the RUT-BOS numbers is interesting. It proves that people will fly from Vermont to Boston. It makes me wonder what would happen if B6 tried a BTV-BOS flight. If people will fly from RUT then there must be at least as many who would fly from BTV, and I expect that plenty of people who fly connections through the Metro NY airports would prefer going through Boston...
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:24 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Hi all, I tend to post most of my stats on the BOS thread, but I do keep an eye on the other New England States too, so i've had a chance to run some numbers and here they are:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=15G6hi ... geDQ6VPDuq

I've pulled Domestic numbers through August (YTD, QTD and Month) and International for RI and CT through May from the T-100's. I've filtered down to the biggest routes.
Due to time-pressures, I've not gone into the details I usually do, but should give you an idea of what's going on. There's a tab for each state.

At the very least it can drive some additional talking points.. any questions, please let me know, there is more data behind the scenes that I don't show here, so if it's available, I will gladly look into any questions for you.

Enjoy.


This is nice - thanks for putting it together!

Seeing the RUT-BOS numbers is interesting. It proves that people will fly from Vermont to Boston. It makes me wonder what would happen if B6 tried a BTV-BOS flight. If people will fly from RUT then there must be at least as many who would fly from BTV, and I expect that plenty of people who fly connections through the Metro NY airports would prefer going through Boston...


Well you have to remember that RUT-BOS is on 9K, so it's only 5.5 per flight 5 daily, so you are looking at 28 pax a day running that route on . whereas an E190 will run 100 seats, so would need approx 60 from BTV to match it. I could see a 1x daily, early am departure from BTV and a late night RON from BOS kind of like they are doing with ORH-JFK to utilize a frame, thus not needing as many pax to make it work, they already have infrastructure at BTV for the JFK flights, so the incremental cost would be relatively small. Not the worst idea in the world I guess. But they don't have the Massport draw they do at ORH to provide such a service. I guess the big question is, is BTV interested in securing a BOS flight?
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
PWMRamper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:18 am

Would love to see DL add PWM MSP, even if it was only summer seasonal. I'd think it'd work well in the summer...

NW used to fly the route premerger.
 
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pwm2txlhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:01 am

PWMRamper wrote:
Would love to see DL add PWM MSP, even if it was only summer seasonal. I'd think it'd work well in the summer...

NW used to fly the route premerger.


It was short lived. Was only for one or two years, and summer seasonal on a CRJ2. Kind of redundant with DTW already served.


Model/price wise they're pretty much the same, the biggest issue with Allegiant is that their planes are very poorly maintained. They've had a lot of emergency landings and close calls in the past few years due to crappy maintenance.



I don't recall anything that was really a close call, or any near disaster emergency landings. More like common incidents that all airlines have occasionally and the media like to make a big deal of it with sensationalism. Of the seven flights I've flown with Allegiant out of PSM and BGR over the last four years, all the A320 and A319's were Ex-Spainair or Iberia, and from other European air carriers. And all the cabins looked like theyd been overhauled to like new . Kept up better than some of the DL planes I've flown on recently. The oldest of the Airbuses I flew with them was 2001 built.

The two MD-80s I've flown with them were ex -SAS. The cabins we showing some wear and tear, but the seats were thickly padded fake leather and were more comfortable than any other airline I've flown with in economy for a long time. I think they were the ex-SAS seats
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:44 am

VS4ever wrote:
mjgbtv wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Hi all, I tend to post most of my stats on the BOS thread, but I do keep an eye on the other New England States too, so i've had a chance to run some numbers and here they are:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=15G6hi ... geDQ6VPDuq

I've pulled Domestic numbers through August (YTD, QTD and Month) and International for RI and CT through May from the T-100's. I've filtered down to the biggest routes.
Due to time-pressures, I've not gone into the details I usually do, but should give you an idea of what's going on. There's a tab for each state.

At the very least it can drive some additional talking points.. any questions, please let me know, there is more data behind the scenes that I don't show here, so if it's available, I will gladly look into any questions for you.

Enjoy.


This is nice - thanks for putting it together!

Seeing the RUT-BOS numbers is interesting. It proves that people will fly from Vermont to Boston. It makes me wonder what would happen if B6 tried a BTV-BOS flight. If people will fly from RUT then there must be at least as many who would fly from BTV, and I expect that plenty of people who fly connections through the Metro NY airports would prefer going through Boston...


Well you have to remember that RUT-BOS is on 9K, so it's only 5.5 per flight 5 daily, so you are looking at 28 pax a day running that route on . whereas an E190 will run 100 seats, so would need approx 60 from BTV to match it. I could see a 1x daily, early am departure from BTV and a late night RON from BOS kind of like they are doing with ORH-JFK to utilize a frame, thus not needing as many pax to make it work, they already have infrastructure at BTV for the JFK flights, so the incremental cost would be relatively small. Not the worst idea in the world I guess. But they don't have the Massport draw they do at ORH to provide such a service. I guess the big question is, is BTV interested in securing a BOS flight?



I can't recall where I read it (maybe in airport commission minutes) but I believe BTV is very interested in getting BOS service. Any time they do a straw poll of new direct destinations BOS is one of the most popular choices. Of course, there's a difference between 'voting' for BOS on a list and actually buying tickets, but the BTV airport management seems to be pretty sharp so they probably know that there is some real demand. It's hard to know what B6 really thinks of BTV right now, though, but obviously they haven't been persuaded to try something.
 
B595
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:35 am

mjgbtv wrote:
I can't recall where I read it (maybe in airport commission minutes) but I believe BTV is very interested in getting BOS service.


The prioritization of BOS service is discussed in this very nice piece from Oct. 10 that was linked by FlyBTV in the JetBlue network thread (pg12):

FlyBTV wrote:
Here’s a recent article on the recent growth of BTV: https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/btv ... d=21581652
 
btvhopper
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:53 pm

How much will BOS service help for providing new connections and seats to drive prices down?

The problem with BOS service I think will be (as it has in the past) is a lot of people will say they really want, but they won't actually buy even if round-trip prices are under $130. There are two many fixed costs to realistically get prices much cheaper.

Of course business travelers would LOVE that route, but I'm not sure how that translates to filling up B6's E190s.
 
mjgbtv
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:44 pm

btvhopper wrote:
How much will BOS service help for providing new connections and seats to drive prices down?

The problem with BOS service I think will be (as it has in the past) is a lot of people will say they really want, but they won't actually buy even if round-trip prices are under $130. There are two many fixed costs to realistically get prices much cheaper.

Of course business travelers would LOVE that route, but I'm not sure how that translates to filling up B6's E190s.


Thanks B595 for pointing out that article!

What I'm speculating is that BOS could be sustained by connecting traffic, and the O&D would be the bonus. If I am interpreting the DOT reports correctly 70% of the BTV-JFK traffic on B6 is connecting, so it seems like a fair amount of that could go through BOS just as well as JFK.

And shifting a flight to BOS would free up a slot at JFK which could be replaced with an A320 or A321 flying one of their high-yield routes.
 
tphuang
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:20 pm

mjgbtv wrote:
btvhopper wrote:
How much will BOS service help for providing new connections and seats to drive prices down?

The problem with BOS service I think will be (as it has in the past) is a lot of people will say they really want, but they won't actually buy even if round-trip prices are under $130. There are two many fixed costs to realistically get prices much cheaper.

Of course business travelers would LOVE that route, but I'm not sure how that translates to filling up B6's E190s.


Thanks B595 for pointing out that article!

What I'm speculating is that BOS could be sustained by connecting traffic, and the O&D would be the bonus. If I am interpreting the DOT reports correctly 70% of the BTV-JFK traffic on B6 is connecting, so it seems like a fair amount of that could go through BOS just as well as JFK.

And shifting a flight to BOS would free up a slot at JFK which could be replaced with an A320 or A321 flying one of their high-yield routes.



Just curious, which table do you use to look up connections traffic as fraction of total traffic?
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:29 pm

So, flew out of ORH this weekend. Both the AA PHL and B6 JFK flight were departing so the terminal was pretty hopping. I hadn't been past upstairs security at ORH before, and it was neat to see the area that was the two unused jetway gates. My flights were on-time (even arrived a little early on Sunday due to lack of JFK delays) but the loads were clearly 60%-ish. If B6 had 75-seat RJs they'd probably be sold out all the time. I have no idea what they're gonna do when the C-series comes along and supplants the E-190s. Even if the costs will be lower, it won't look good to send that jet out half-full all the time. Seemed like a decent enough crowd at gate 1 for the AA flight but I didn't count any heads.

It's a small airport experience, good and bad. The only real kink is that there's not enough room for TSA and what room there is encroaches upon gate area. There's only one security line, and it goes at a right-angle. It consumes a bunch of space inside the terminal and because the gates used are 1 and 2, you have to do a U-turn once leaving security. Weekend parking was just seven bucks, and I was off the jet and in my car in a matter of minutes. Compared to my usual Logan routine (drive to Logan Express, take that in) it was nice and painless. I live 45 minutes away from ORH with no traffic, versus half an hour drive to Woburn Logan express, wait for the bus, and then all the waiting at BOS.

The real flaw has nothing to do with the airport, it's driving navigation. This has always been the flaw of ORH, so me repeating it isn't saying much, but the city of Worcester is falling down on this pretty hard. I've driven to ORH many times, so I know the way to get there, but the signage along Highland and Pleasant street goes between awful and nonexistent. The roundabout at Newton Square has no signage aside from a teeny tiny trailblazer on a pole! It's also the same with heading back to 290. Imagine if you're unfamiliar with the area. Something tells me that the neighborhoods where that route goes through would object strenuously to larger, more obvious signage. Coming from, say, route 9 (if you came from the turnpike) it's signed far better than the northerly route. I don't think ORH needs direct freeway access for help, but it needs better navigation aids at a minimum. Eliminating the Newton Square roundabout would do a lot to simplify things.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:32 pm

PWM is starting a big renovation project upgrading gates 1-6 starting Dec 3 and finishing it in April to match the new addition. Baggage claim at some point will be expanded when shipyard will be relocated or closed. Escalators are being moved from the shipyard brewing area to a new area with a new glass elevator in a more centralized location. Passengers will be detoured thru a different exit to access baggage claim during construction. Construction is going to start soon a new storage building for ground ops for the airlines. The jetport is now using a 24-7 shuttle from its lot located off site. This is due to increased traffic and as well as renovation of the garage. Plans are being pushed to increase the garage size now than 5 years from now. Consultants thought it would need to be expanded in several years, but they were wrong. They underestimated the passenger count. This is the hot topic right now between jetport management and passengers. With the arrival of Frontier has overwhelmed the garage.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 4:13 pm

paysonmt77 wrote:
PWM is starting a big renovation project upgrading gates 1-6 starting Dec 3 and finishing it in April to match the new addition. Baggage claim at some point will be expanded when shipyard will be relocated or closed. Escalators are being moved from the shipyard brewing area to a new area with a new glass elevator in a more centralized location. Passengers will be detoured thru a different exit to access baggage claim during construction. Construction is going to start soon a new storage building for ground ops for the airlines. The jetport is now using a 24-7 shuttle from its lot located off site. This is due to increased traffic and as well as renovation of the garage. Plans are being pushed to increase the garage size now than 5 years from now. Consultants thought it would need to be expanded in several years, but they were wrong. They underestimated the passenger count. This is the hot topic right now between jetport management and passengers. With the arrival of Frontier has overwhelmed the garage.


Do these renovations include space for an FIS / CBP station? I know that the area behind gate 5 on the lower level has been discussed in the past.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 6:06 pm

The FIS station is in the 2019/2020 budget and will be constructed on the lower level after the escalator relocation project is done and the summer/fall traffic is done. The stairwell located near gate 5 and 6 will be used for that project. The other project is moving admin.staff to the dead space located above baggage claim freeing up the space where they are now. Another project is this budget is expanding the RON area near the glycol plant.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:53 pm

dvincent wrote:
Both the AA PHL and B6 JFK flight were departing so the terminal was pretty hopping.

Glad to see Massport strong arm politics is alive and well.

I agree with what you wrote about ORH area road navigation.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:05 pm

tphuang wrote:

Just curious, which table do you use to look up connections traffic as fraction of total traffic?


I was looking at Table 1. For Q2 2018 it shows B6 as the lowest fare carrier for BTV-NY Metro at 38% market share, so I think that should produce the O&D number which would be ~30% of their total BTV-JFK traffic. So this would not work for a city where an airline has routes to multiple airports in a metro area or is not the largest or lowest fare carrier.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:42 am

dvincent wrote:
So, flew out of ORH this weekend. Both the AA PHL and B6 JFK flight were departing so the terminal was pretty hopping. I hadn't been past upstairs security at ORH before, and it was neat to see the area that was the two unused jetway gates. My flights were on-time (even arrived a little early on Sunday due to lack of JFK delays) but the loads were clearly 60%-ish. If B6 had 75-seat RJs they'd probably be sold out all the time. I have no idea what they're gonna do when the C-series comes along and supplants the E-190s. Even if the costs will be lower, it won't look good to send that jet out half-full all the time. Seemed like a decent enough crowd at gate 1 for the AA flight but I didn't count any heads.

It's a small airport experience, good and bad. The only real kink is that there's not enough room for TSA and what room there is encroaches upon gate area. There's only one security line, and it goes at a right-angle. It consumes a bunch of space inside the terminal and because the gates used are 1 and 2, you have to do a U-turn once leaving security. Weekend parking was just seven bucks, and I was off the jet and in my car in a matter of minutes. Compared to my usual Logan routine (drive to Logan Express, take that in) it was nice and painless. I live 45 minutes away from ORH with no traffic, versus half an hour drive to Woburn Logan express, wait for the bus, and then all the waiting at BOS.

The real flaw has nothing to do with the airport, it's driving navigation. This has always been the flaw of ORH, so me repeating it isn't saying much, but the city of Worcester is falling down on this pretty hard. I've driven to ORH many times, so I know the way to get there, but the signage along Highland and Pleasant street goes between awful and nonexistent. The roundabout at Newton Square has no signage aside from a teeny tiny trailblazer on a pole! It's also the same with heading back to 290. Imagine if you're unfamiliar with the area. Something tells me that the neighborhoods where that route goes through would object strenuously to larger, more obvious signage. Coming from, say, route 9 (if you came from the turnpike) it's signed far better than the northerly route. I don't think ORH needs direct freeway access for help, but it needs better navigation aids at a minimum. Eliminating the Newton Square roundabout would do a lot to simplify things.


Years back I flew from ORH and the road access was through a seedy part of the city. Too much stop and go, perhaps a freeway ramp would encourage more people to give ORH a chance. There certainly is a large market to draw from to support more service than ORH currently provides. More service to more hubs is the answer, B6 flights to Florida are not going to appeal the large number of flyers in the area. I find it strange that Delta is starting service at such a late date, when announced, it was almost a year away.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:56 pm

The temperature I got from the early-risers that were on the JFK flight is that they were all locals. Bunch of people making connections, and many going to New York directly. I have a hunch that if there was regular Inland Route Amtrak service that the people going to NY directly would have taken that instead. Sure beats riding on the Peter Pan, though.

I find it strange that Delta is starting service at such a late date, when announced, it was almost a year away.


Both gates are airline branded (JetBlue and AA). If DL wants its own gate, it will take some time for it to be set up as a jetway will need to be installed and some infrastructure brought in terminal side. Or someone will be changing the wallpaper at gate 1.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:22 pm

paysonmt77 wrote:
PWM is starting a big renovation project upgrading gates 1-6 starting Dec 3 and finishing it in April to match the new addition. Baggage claim at some point will be expanded when shipyard will be relocated or closed. Escalators are being moved from the shipyard brewing area to a new area with a new glass elevator in a more centralized location. Passengers will be detoured thru a different exit to access baggage claim during construction. Construction is going to start soon a new storage building for ground ops for the airlines. The jetport is now using a 24-7 shuttle from its lot located off site. This is due to increased traffic and as well as renovation of the garage. Plans are being pushed to increase the garage size now than 5 years from now. Consultants thought it would need to be expanded in several years, but they were wrong. They underestimated the passenger count. This is the hot topic right now between jetport management and passengers. With the arrival of Frontier has overwhelmed the garage.

This sounds very exciting. I will have to make a spotting day trip up there soon. These ambitious projects will however, require a permenant passenger grab from a combination of Boston and Manchester and keeping Portsmouth at bay? Can that be sustained long term to help service the dept and keep everyone happy?
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 4:34 pm

lat41 wrote:
This sounds very exciting. I will have to make a spotting day trip up there soon. These ambitious projects will however, require a permenant passenger grab from a combination of Boston and Manchester and keeping Portsmouth at bay? Can that be sustained long term to help service the dept and keep everyone happy?


PSM hurts MHT far more than PWM, and now that Portsmouth has Frontier I think it will be even more attractive to NH travelers.

The management at PWM has ambition, and Portland continues to be a strong market. If growth is sustained we might start to see PWM "snowball" as more service = more travelers and more travelers = more service. Granted that snowball would be limited by the fact that the Maine market is not large, but the Jetport has increasingly been pulling in travelers from all over the state. I know people in central and northern Maine who choose PWM over BGR.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:15 pm

dvincent wrote:
The temperature I got from the early-risers that were on the JFK flight is that they were all locals. Bunch of people making connections, and many going to New York directly. I have a hunch that if there was regular Inland Route Amtrak service that the people going to NY directly would have taken that instead. Sure beats riding on the Peter Pan, though.

I find it strange that Delta is starting service at such a late date, when announced, it was almost a year away.


Both gates are airline branded (JetBlue and AA). If DL wants its own gate, it will take some time for it to be set up as a jetway will need to be installed and some infrastructure brought in terminal side. Or someone will be changing the wallpaper at gate 1.


One wonders if that wasn't some of the reason why it's such a long lead time. I am sure DL would want their own branding up there. it kind of makes sense if that was the case, as like others, I have often wondered why it was announced that way. Although the expense for 1 flight a day would seem to be excessive, at least AA and B6 have 2 and 3 respectively, but of course having looked at the recent financials that Massport produced for ORH, they are so far underwater at this point, I am not sure the expense of Jetway 3 will really make much of a difference, they need to almost quadruple the number of flights, if not more, to generate the kinds of revenues needed to outweigh the cost. ORH is clearly a long game for Massport, because right now it's a money pit in terms of profitability, so they are going to need something spectacular to turn that around, IF they really want to do that.

My question is, IF they want to do that (and it's a big IF), what on earth could the strategy be and could they attract enough pax to warrant whatever strategy they come up with, given some of the other infrastructure concerns (signage and the like) that the airport has. Could they tempt UA to turn up with an EWR flight, how about AA or UA to ORD (although DTW will work for some of that with DL), or is this one open for a G4 type arrangement, but they might potentially overlap the B6 MCO service as an example. It's all conjecture at this point of course, and Massport isn't giving up anything relating to it's longer term strategy right now, or obviously what's going on behind closed doors.

They are being quick to announce the positives, trying to generate buzz about their local airport, but there has to be something else going on here, they wouldn't have invested over $35m in field infrastructure improvements (CAT III and the like) if they didn't feel they couldn't get some kind of return on it. If you assume a life of 25 years of the equipment and construction set up involved, that's about $1.4m a year + interest on the funding on revenues of only $2.2m before you add in operational expenses. Either Massport are experts at throwing money down the drain, which given their history, I am not sure that they are. Or there is something else long term here that we are yet to figure out.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:38 pm

I took a look at T-100 numbers for JFK-ORH in July and August and it's not good. I'm only see load factor of 40%, which is really bad considering these are peak summer month when load factors are normally in the high 80s. I'm sure B6 will keep flying it to get MassPort happy, but this route is probably the worst performer system wide.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
I took a look at T-100 numbers for JFK-ORH in July and August and it's not good. I'm only see load factor of 40%, which is really bad considering these are peak summer month when load factors are normally in the high 80s. I'm sure B6 will keep flying it to get MassPort happy, but this route is probably the worst performer system wide.


Agreed it's not pretty and I think we all understand this is a pat on the back to Massport to keep them amused. However the point of that flight is to get an extra utilization out of a frame that would have been sitting at JFK as a RON from 10pm to say 6am. For a limited additional cost (even more limited with Massport's help), they get an extra turn from a frame that would be paying parking fees at JFK, instead they are paying those fees at ORH, while I am sure it's a horrible performer, I don't think the cost base is quite as bad, LF's in the 40's% may not make them a ton of money, but it might at least breakeven and although Wall Street is looking for revenue and EBITDA performance, this one would sit firmly in the revenue camp for growth and B6 maybe willing to accept that for now.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:17 pm

Speaking of poor access to ORH, I'm reminded of the decade+ that it took to get the bridge and highway over the Merrimack River to MHT. One culprit was a nesting pair of eagles along the river precisely where they wanted to build the bridge. The obvious irony not lost on anyone here was this: MHT had its heyday before the bridge came along, and collapsed once it was completed.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:53 pm

VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I took a look at T-100 numbers for JFK-ORH in July and August and it's not good. I'm only see load factor of 40%, which is really bad considering these are peak summer month when load factors are normally in the high 80s. I'm sure B6 will keep flying it to get MassPort happy, but this route is probably the worst performer system wide.


Agreed it's not pretty and I think we all understand this is a pat on the back to Massport to keep them amused. However the point of that flight is to get an extra utilization out of a frame that would have been sitting at JFK as a RON from 10pm to say 6am. For a limited additional cost (even more limited with Massport's help), they get an extra turn from a frame that would be paying parking fees at JFK, instead they are paying those fees at ORH, while I am sure it's a horrible performer, I don't think the cost base is quite as bad, LF's in the 40's% may not make them a ton of money, but it might at least breakeven and although Wall Street is looking for revenue and EBITDA performance, this one would sit firmly in the revenue camp for growth and B6 maybe willing to accept that for now.


As a fair user of the flights I have to admit I am a bit worried. However I think there are a lot of things this routes does that belie the poor load factors. First, I bet a fair number of those passengers would not be using JetBlue at all if they were driving to BOS or PVD. I also have noted that it is somewhat common for some of those passengers to have been on other flights to BOS that have gotten cancelled, and this is a way to mop up some of those passengers who might otherwise have been stuck overnight because they could not get on a connection to Boston.

I have only done the AA flight to PHL a few times. It never quite works as it is so late. But I am wondering if that does better since it isn't so early in the morning or late at night.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:15 pm

cloudboy wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I took a look at T-100 numbers for JFK-ORH in July and August and it's not good. I'm only see load factor of 40%, which is really bad considering these are peak summer month when load factors are normally in the high 80s. I'm sure B6 will keep flying it to get MassPort happy, but this route is probably the worst performer system wide.


Agreed it's not pretty and I think we all understand this is a pat on the back to Massport to keep them amused. However the point of that flight is to get an extra utilization out of a frame that would have been sitting at JFK as a RON from 10pm to say 6am. For a limited additional cost (even more limited with Massport's help), they get an extra turn from a frame that would be paying parking fees at JFK, instead they are paying those fees at ORH, while I am sure it's a horrible performer, I don't think the cost base is quite as bad, LF's in the 40's% may not make them a ton of money, but it might at least breakeven and although Wall Street is looking for revenue and EBITDA performance, this one would sit firmly in the revenue camp for growth and B6 maybe willing to accept that for now.


As a fair user of the flights I have to admit I am a bit worried. However I think there are a lot of things this routes does that belie the poor load factors. First, I bet a fair number of those passengers would not be using JetBlue at all if they were driving to BOS or PVD. I also have noted that it is somewhat common for some of those passengers to have been on other flights to BOS that have gotten cancelled, and this is a way to mop up some of those passengers who might otherwise have been stuck overnight because they could not get on a connection to Boston.

I have only done the AA flight to PHL a few times. It never quite works as it is so late. But I am wondering if that does better since it isn't so early in the morning or late at night.

I wouldn’t be worried if I were you. B6 is going to run this so that it can keep its special relationship with massport. It has kept mco and fll flights going despite being under performers compared to other northeastern airports. I can’t say the same about aa.
 
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 8:18 pm

I have no more qualification to speculate than most posters here, but here's my two cents, for what they're worth.

VS4ever wrote:
One wonders if that wasn't some of the reason why it's such a long lead time. I am sure DL would want their own branding up there. it kind of makes sense if that was the case, as like others, I have often wondered why it was announced that way. Although the expense for 1 flight a day would seem to be excessive, at least AA and B6 have 2 and 3 respectively, but of course having looked at the recent financials that Massport produced for ORH, they are so far underwater at this point, I am not sure the expense of Jetway 3 will really make much of a difference, they need to almost quadruple the number of flights, if not more, to generate the kinds of revenues needed to outweigh the cost. ORH is clearly a long game for Massport, because right now it's a money pit in terms of profitability, so they are going to need something spectacular to turn that around, IF they really want to do that.


Adding another jetway to the ready terminal pales in comparison to the money they spent on the Cat-III system. They could always ground-level board if they wanted to (either from the existing ground-level gates or another way) but I don't see that happening.

The plan for ORH, as I see it, is to get it to be a legitimate alternative to BOS for the central part of the state (as well as NE Connecticut and SE Vermont). The capacity increases at BOS means that peeling off some flights to ORH is part of a way to delay gate additions or other costs at BOS. While I'm sure Massport is always head-over-heels about current BOS revenue and the fact that it's more popular than ever, it's starting to become a victim of its own success in some ways. Every car you keep out of parking or driving eastbound on the Turnpike is probably a win for them. The kind of money you pour into this is a 20-30 year lead time kind of thing, as you know.

Also, having ORH as capable of taking RJ/A320/B737 sized diverts isn't something to ignore. With the Cat-III landing system in place, ORH is at least capable of playing defense in bad weather now versus shoving its hands up in the air. A B6 gate agent told me that a bunch of BOS-bound travelers wound up taking the ORH flight back during the bad weather the other day because, perversely, the WX was better there than at BOS.

My question is, IF they want to do that (and it's a big IF), what on earth could the strategy be and could they attract enough pax to warrant whatever strategy they come up with, given some of the other infrastructure concerns (signage and the like) that the airport has. Could they tempt UA to turn up with an EWR flight, how about AA or UA to ORD (although DTW will work for some of that with DL), or is this one open for a G4 type arrangement, but they might potentially overlap the B6 MCO service as an example. It's all conjecture at this point of course, and Massport isn't giving up anything relating to it's longer term strategy right now, or obviously what's going on behind closed doors.


If I'm an ORH planner, I would look at AA/UA/DL to hit the following destinations:

DCA/IAD (slots mean DCA probably won't happen, but it's the next logical AA destination in my book)
ORD (AA or UA, most likely UA)
CLT (AA Hub, tons of connections)
ATL (DL, very unlikely, but if we're talking hub flying...)
DFW (AA, extremely unlikely for a variety of factors)

I don't see a logical expansion plan for B6 based on their current destination list. B6 could try DCA, but again, slots. BWI is less appealing and they have no connections there. This is also not counting any left-field suggestions like F9 or NK.

They are being quick to announce the positives, trying to generate buzz about their local airport, but there has to be something else going on here, they wouldn't have invested over $35m in field infrastructure improvements (CAT III and the like) if they didn't feel they couldn't get some kind of return on it. If you assume a life of 25 years of the equipment and construction set up involved, that's about $1.4m a year + interest on the funding on revenues of only $2.2m before you add in operational expenses. Either Massport are experts at throwing money down the drain, which given their history, I am not sure that they are. Or there is something else long term here that we are yet to figure out.


They're playing the cards they have right now. The way I see the $35mm investment is that it was a do-or-die thing: if the Airport wants to be competitive for actual airline use, they have to have level of service where a random fog roll won't kill a flight, and the new system has improved minimums for non-Cat-III approaches which helps. The city had a choice to make in the mid-late aughts doldrums: demolish the terminal and revert back to a GA field, or sell off the land. The city made the choice for the former by selling to Massport.

I also see a division in Massport's money and airline's money. While Massport is doing incentives for ORH service, the cost of running the airport is a different time scale from airline's cost of service and profit margin. On your 25-30 year scale, the 1.5-2m/yr cost is peanuts compared to Logan's operating budget, for example. Worcester is also in a different place than it was 15 years ago: it's on the upswing, growing and shaking off the bad times. There's also the rest of Worcester county, which is almost a million people. For them, driving to ORH (even with the lack of direct freeway connection) will still be less painful than driving to BOS, BDL, or even PVD.

chrisnh wrote:
Speaking of poor access to ORH, I'm reminded of the decade+ that it took to get the bridge and highway over the Merrimack River to MHT. One culprit was a nesting pair of eagles along the river precisely where they wanted to build the bridge. The obvious irony not lost on anyone here was this: MHT had its heyday before the bridge came along, and collapsed once it was completed.


ORH doesn't have a river as a physical barrier, but its elevation does it no favors. I really think, on the north side, eliminating the roundabout at Newton Square and improving signage and guidance along Highland and Pleasant streets will help a lot in the interim. Building a direct airport road would cut through swathes of residential areas and I do not think would be worth it in the short term.
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:31 pm

dvincent wrote:
I have no more qualification to speculate than most posters here, but here's my two cents, for what they're worth.

VS4ever wrote:
One wonders if that wasn't some of the reason why it's such a long lead time. I am sure DL would want their own branding up there. it kind of makes sense if that was the case, as like others, I have often wondered why it was announced that way. Although the expense for 1 flight a day would seem to be excessive, at least AA and B6 have 2 and 3 respectively, but of course having looked at the recent financials that Massport produced for ORH, they are so far underwater at this point, I am not sure the expense of Jetway 3 will really make much of a difference, they need to almost quadruple the number of flights, if not more, to generate the kinds of revenues needed to outweigh the cost. ORH is clearly a long game for Massport, because right now it's a money pit in terms of profitability, so they are going to need something spectacular to turn that around, IF they really want to do that.


Adding another jetway to the ready terminal pales in comparison to the money they spent on the Cat-III system. They could always ground-level board if they wanted to (either from the existing ground-level gates or another way) but I don't see that happening.

The plan for ORH, as I see it, is to get it to be a legitimate alternative to BOS for the central part of the state (as well as NE Connecticut and SE Vermont). The capacity increases at BOS means that peeling off some flights to ORH is part of a way to delay gate additions or other costs at BOS. While I'm sure Massport is always head-over-heels about current BOS revenue and the fact that it's more popular than ever, it's starting to become a victim of its own success in some ways. Every car you keep out of parking or driving eastbound on the Turnpike is probably a win for them. The kind of money you pour into this is a 20-30 year lead time kind of thing, as you know.

Also, having ORH as capable of taking RJ/A320/B737 sized diverts isn't something to ignore. With the Cat-III landing system in place, ORH is at least capable of playing defense in bad weather now versus shoving its hands up in the air. A B6 gate agent told me that a bunch of BOS-bound travelers wound up taking the ORH flight back during the bad weather the other day because, perversely, the WX was better there than at BOS.

My question is, IF they want to do that (and it's a big IF), what on earth could the strategy be and could they attract enough pax to warrant whatever strategy they come up with, given some of the other infrastructure concerns (signage and the like) that the airport has. Could they tempt UA to turn up with an EWR flight, how about AA or UA to ORD (although DTW will work for some of that with DL), or is this one open for a G4 type arrangement, but they might potentially overlap the B6 MCO service as an example. It's all conjecture at this point of course, and Massport isn't giving up anything relating to it's longer term strategy right now, or obviously what's going on behind closed doors.


If I'm an ORH planner, I would look at AA/UA/DL to hit the following destinations:

DCA/IAD (slots mean DCA probably won't happen, but it's the next logical AA destination in my book)
ORD (AA or UA, most likely UA)
CLT (AA Hub, tons of connections)
ATL (DL, very unlikely, but if we're talking hub flying...)
DFW (AA, extremely unlikely for a variety of factors)

I don't see a logical expansion plan for B6 based on their current destination list. B6 could try DCA, but again, slots. BWI is less appealing and they have no connections there. This is also not counting any left-field suggestions like F9 or NK.

They are being quick to announce the positives, trying to generate buzz about their local airport, but there has to be something else going on here, they wouldn't have invested over $35m in field infrastructure improvements (CAT III and the like) if they didn't feel they couldn't get some kind of return on it. If you assume a life of 25 years of the equipment and construction set up involved, that's about $1.4m a year + interest on the funding on revenues of only $2.2m before you add in operational expenses. Either Massport are experts at throwing money down the drain, which given their history, I am not sure that they are. Or there is something else long term here that we are yet to figure out.


They're playing the cards they have right now. The way I see the $35mm investment is that it was a do-or-die thing: if the Airport wants to be competitive for actual airline use, they have to have level of service where a random fog roll won't kill a flight, and the new system has improved minimums for non-Cat-III approaches which helps. The city had a choice to make in the mid-late aughts doldrums: demolish the terminal and revert back to a GA field, or sell off the land. The city made the choice for the former by selling to Massport.

I also see a division in Massport's money and airline's money. While Massport is doing incentives for ORH service, the cost of running the airport is a different time scale from airline's cost of service and profit margin. On your 25-30 year scale, the 1.5-2m/yr cost is peanuts compared to Logan's operating budget, for example. Worcester is also in a different place than it was 15 years ago: it's on the upswing, growing and shaking off the bad times. There's also the rest of Worcester county, which is almost a million people. For them, driving to ORH (even with the lack of direct freeway connection) will still be less painful than driving to BOS, BDL, or even PVD.

chrisnh wrote:
Speaking of poor access to ORH, I'm reminded of the decade+ that it took to get the bridge and highway over the Merrimack River to MHT. One culprit was a nesting pair of eagles along the river precisely where they wanted to build the bridge. The obvious irony not lost on anyone here was this: MHT had its heyday before the bridge came along, and collapsed once it was completed.


ORH doesn't have a river as a physical barrier, but its elevation does it no favors. I really think, on the north side, eliminating the roundabout at Newton Square and improving signage and guidance along Highland and Pleasant streets will help a lot in the interim. Building a direct airport road would cut through swathes of residential areas and I do not think would be worth it in the short term.


Another possibility for ORH would be UA to IAD. They seem to be building up IAD and it offers good overseas connections as well as some N/S to large cities.
 
PVDspotting
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:59 pm

dvincent wrote:
Also, having ORH as capable of taking RJ/A320/B737 sized diverts isn't something to ignore. With the Cat-III landing system in place, ORH is at least capable of playing defense in bad weather now versus shoving its hands up in the air. A B6 gate agent told me that a bunch of BOS-bound travelers wound up taking the ORH flight back during the bad weather the other day because, perversely, the WX was better there than at BOS.

ORH having CAT III does no good for RJs that aren't capable to fly them. I don't believe any US regional carrier is CAT III certified.
 
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dvincent
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:15 am

PVDspotting wrote:
dvincent wrote:
Also, having ORH as capable of taking RJ/A320/B737 sized diverts isn't something to ignore. With the Cat-III landing system in place, ORH is at least capable of playing defense in bad weather now versus shoving its hands up in the air. A B6 gate agent told me that a bunch of BOS-bound travelers wound up taking the ORH flight back during the bad weather the other day because, perversely, the WX was better there than at BOS.

ORH having CAT III does no good for RJs that aren't capable to fly them. I don't believe any US regional carrier is CAT III certified.


Point taken. They don't, but the minimum approach quality was also improved to CAT II, which many regionals do support. My point was more that in the past, nothing could be done, whereas now there's at least some operational flexibility.
From the Mind of Minolta
 
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VS4ever
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Re: The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:14 pm

I think i have found the answer to part of the reason on the long lead time for the DL DTW flight.

http://www.massport.com/capitalprograms ... 283-C1.pdf

Massport awarded a bid for $249k for the building of 2 more jet bridges for Gates 3 and 4 (I am sure 3 will most likely be for DL, then 4 could be common use for anybody else that shows up). Clearly that construction will take time, so that will account for part of the lead time for sure, if DL don't want to share Gates 1 and 2 (already branded elsewhere), plus all the line painting for the parking spots. Interestingly, looking at an overhead of the terminal on Google maps, looks like Gate 3 will be straight on like Gate 2, but 4 might be interesting and at a significant angle, there is room of course to do that, but will definitely be a tow-in gate, unless experts disagree with me, it's just how it looks to me.
Still, another piece in the puzzle.
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