The Rest of New England (BDL/PVD/MHT/PWM/ORH/BTV/HVN) - 2018

VS4ever · Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:25 am

PVD and BDL in lockstep, not sure that's happened in a while, anyway, here's the updated comparatives. PVD back to 2012 and BDL back to 2014.
http://awhitelocks.wixsite.com/newengla ... nglandt100

BDL Interesting info:
WN has lost 4% pax share with a reduction of nearly 100K pax since 2014 , this while the airport has domestically grown by 440K during the same period and were largely flat 16-17.
DL were largely flat 16-17, lost a bit of pax share but up 50K per year
NK have taken a 2.8% share in 17 from a standing start
AA are up 5.4% year over year, UA up 4% and B6 down 1%, largely i suspect due to the storms in the Caribbean and Florida in Q3.

PVD Observations
Outside of the massive cargo increases, (doesn't that just give you an idea of the size of Amazon)
AA up 6.7%, #2 carrier behind WN, but around 60% of the size.
B6 down 4.9% and almost beat UA, who collapsed by 11.5% during the year.
DL flat #3 carrier
F9 146K from a standing start and could well be #4 in 2018, grabbed a 3.7% pax share
WN had a 50% pax share back in 2012 and even if you remove the 123K international pax are now down by over 5%
oh and by the way, nearly 100K D8 pax in 2017, for less than 1/2 a year..

Shaping up to be a very nice 2018 for PVD and super busy.. great job!

CairnterriAIR · Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:08 pm

uconn99 wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
Below you will find the passenger breakdown by airline at BDL for December 2017. I am not sure how many flights Aer Lingus flew in December but using 34 total flights brings the load factor around 65%, a good sized drop from the summer and fall. It looks like Norwegian had it's best month since the summer at BDL with around a 72% load if no flights were canceled.

Decemer 2017 Bradley International Airport Passengers-

Total Passengers-

December 2017- 526,939 +5.3%
December 2016- 500,528

2017 total pax- 6,436,407 +6.2%
2016 total pax- 6,060,943

Domestic by Airline December 2017-

Southwest- 131,226
American- 130,889
Delta- 92,494
jetBlue- 75,612
United- 52,676
Spirit- 33,263
Onejet- 341

International by Airline December 2017-

Air Canada- 4,121
Aer Lingus- 3,916 (65% load?)
Norwegian- 2,401 (72% load?)
Delta (CUN flight)- 487

I think the LF on Aer Lingus should be quite higher as it has been operating 3x weekly this off-season.

Do you know what days? I thought the off season was 4x weekly?

Been running Tues, Thurs, Sat. IAD seems to be flying Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat this off season. Perhaps one 757 being used for both routes....with another down for C-check.

uconn99 · Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:43 pm

CairnterriAIR wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
CairnterriAIR wrote:

I think the LF on Aer Lingus should be quite higher as it has been operating 3x weekly this off-season.

Do you know what days? I thought the off season was 4x weekly?

Been running Tues, Thurs, Sat. IAD seems to be flying Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat this off season. Perhaps one 757 being used for both routes....with another down for C-check.

Thanks for that info. If the flight only ran 3x weekly on that schedule the load factor on BDL-DUB would be 85%, consistent with the fall.

uconn99 · Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:25 pm

Nice addition for Southwest at BDL with STL service beginning 1x daily on August 7th. This is the first BDL-STL flight in over 10 years since AA flew the route.

http://www.bradleyairport.com/2018/02/1 ... -st-louis/

jplatts · Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:04 pm

WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to LAX, OAK, and PHX from BDL.

There is a lot of demand to PHX from BDL, but there is currently no nonstop service to PHX from BDL on any airline. There were on average of 252 passengers per day who traveled between BDL and PHX in Q2 2017, and there is more than enough demand for WN to add PHX-BDL nonstop service.

While AA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and LAX, the demand for BDL-LAX exceeds the number of seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There were on average 470 passengers a day who traveled between BDL and LAX in Q2 2017, but there are only 320 seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There is enough demand for either WN, DL, or UA to add BDL-LAX nonstop service, or for AA to add a 2nd daily nonstop between BDL and LAX. WN would also be able to connect passengers to LAX from BDL through PHX if it adds LAX-PHX nonstop service.

While UA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and SFO, the demand for flights to the San Francisco Bay Area from BDL exceeds the number of seats available on the UA SFO-BDL nonstops. There were on average 394 passengers per day who traveled between BDL and the San Francisco Bay Area in Q2 2017, but there are only 256 seats available on the UA SFO-BDL nonstops. There is enough demand for either UA to add a 2nd BDL-SFO nonstop, for AS to add BDL-SFO nonstop service if it enters BDL, or for WN to add BDL-OAK nonstop service.

The lack of BDL-PHX nonstop service is a huge hole, and there is possibly even enough demand for WN to do 2 daily nonstops to PHX from BDL.

Will WN ever add nonstop service from BDL to PHX, LAX, or OAK in the near future?

phllax · Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:42 pm

jplatts wrote:
WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to LAX, OAK, and PHX from BDL.

While AA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and LAX, the demand for BDL-LAX exceeds the number of seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There were on average 470 passengers a day who traveled between BDL and LAX in Q2 2017, but there are only 320 seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There is enough demand for either WN, DL, or UA to add BDL-LAX nonstop service.

UA tried LAX-BDL years ago and couldn't make it work, and ordered the 320 based on the ability for the airplane to do that route, as the 737-400 couldn't. DL has also tried LAX-BDL recently, and it cannot make it work. AA's ability to keep it going may be one of the merger benefits, as for years US operated BDL-PHL-LAX direct plane service.

uconn99 · Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:55 pm

Turns out Aer Lingus is getting the entire 4.5 million revenue guarentee for the first year.

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article ... /302159939

"Aer Lingus Chief Commercial Officer Keith Butler (who has since left the company) told HBJ in 2016 that the the airline hoped to fill 105,000 seats in its first 12 months. Bradley data shows that it filled about 77,000."

Geez, what load factor is 105,000? 95%?

uconn99 · Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:59 pm

phllax wrote:
jplatts wrote:
WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to LAX, OAK, and PHX from BDL.

While AA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and LAX, the demand for BDL-LAX exceeds the number of seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There were on average 470 passengers a day who traveled between BDL and LAX in Q2 2017, but there are only 320 seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There is enough demand for either WN, DL, or UA to add BDL-LAX nonstop service.

UA tried LAX-BDL years ago and couldn't make it work, and ordered the 320 based on the ability for the airplane to do that route, as the 737-400 couldn't. DL has also tried LAX-BDL recently, and it cannot make it work. AA's ability to keep it going may be one of the merger benefits, as for years US operated BDL-PHL-LAX direct plane service.

When United flew the route how was LAX in terms of connections? Delta flew the route under Song using 757's, not long after the route was started Song went away and filed for chapter 11. I am sure that didn't help keep the route going.

uconn99 · Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:49 am

jplatts wrote:
WN has opportunities to add nonstop service to LAX, OAK, and PHX from BDL.

There is a lot of demand to PHX from BDL, but there is currently no nonstop service to PHX from BDL on any airline. There were on average of 252 passengers per day who traveled between BDL and PHX in Q2 2017, and there is more than enough demand for WN to add PHX-BDL nonstop service.

While AA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and LAX, the demand for BDL-LAX exceeds the number of seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There were on average 470 passengers a day who traveled between BDL and LAX in Q2 2017, but there are only 320 seats available on the AA BDL-LAX nonstops. There is enough demand for either WN, DL, or UA to add BDL-LAX nonstop service, or for AA to add a 2nd daily nonstop between BDL and LAX. WN would also be able to connect passengers to LAX from BDL through PHX if it adds LAX-PHX nonstop service.

While UA does have 1 daily nonstop in each direction between BDL and SFO, the demand for flights to the San Francisco Bay Area from BDL exceeds the number of seats available on the UA SFO-BDL nonstops. There were on average 394 passengers per day who traveled between BDL and the San Francisco Bay Area in Q2 2017, but there are only 256 seats available on the UA SFO-BDL nonstops. There is enough demand for either UA to add a 2nd BDL-SFO nonstop, for AS to add BDL-SFO nonstop service if it enters BDL, or for WN to add BDL-OAK nonstop service.

The lack of BDL-PHX nonstop service is a huge hole, and there is possibly even enough demand for WN to do 2 daily nonstops to PHX from BDL.

Will WN ever add nonstop service from BDL to PHX, LAX, or OAK in the near future?

PHX is a huge hole from BDL ever since America West discontinued service. Someone in the past mentioned US flying the route but I don't recall a non stop to Phoenix since the HP days.

I believe AA with the single daily non stop to LAX is fine for the market at the moment. Lets see the route stick around longer than a year or 2 before any hope of a 2x daily from AA or an entrant from another carrier.

The UA SFO flight is only seasonal May-September or somewhere along those lines. I believe the route could support at least 1x daily on UA or could WN consider BDL-OAK? WN flying into the bay area from BDL is probably wishful thinking considering it isn't typical of WN to fly such long stage flights. Maybe Alaskan surprises everyone and announces BDL-SEA/SFO daily out of nowhere.

Right now I would image PHX to be added next from WN or AA and a city like Nashville or New Orleans as a possibility within the next couple years.

VS4ever · Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:03 am

Another year, another drop in MHT pax numbers. They've released Jan 18 to show a 0.9% drop year over year.
https://www.flymanchester.com/sites/def ... 202018.pdf
Not too much to talk about given it's only 1 month, however WN was down 5%, and UA trended down big time, with upticks for DL and a little for AA to trade off.
The bigger movement was actually on the cargo side with UPS up 24% and Fed Ex up 9.3 along with partner Wiggins also up 24%.
overall 1,100 pax drop.

bagoldex · Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:16 am

uconn99 wrote:
Is there a way to find out BDL cargo numbers now? I used to get passenger and cargo numbers emailed to me monthly but that stopped 5 or so years ago when passenger info started appearing om the BDL website.

http://www.aviationdb.com

uconn99 · Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:18 am

Is there a way to find out BDL cargo numbers now? I used to get passenger and cargo numbers emailed to me monthly but that stopped 5 or so years ago when passenger info started appearing on the BDL website.

chrisnh · Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:11 am

[code][/code]

VS4ever wrote:
Another year, another drop in MHT pax numbers. They've released Jan 18 to show a 0.9% drop year over year.
https://www.flymanchester.com/sites/def ... 202018.pdf
Not too much to talk about given it's only 1 month, however WN was down 5%, and UA trended down big time, with upticks for DL and a little for AA to trade off.
The bigger movement was actually on the cargo side with UPS up 24% and Fed Ex up 9.3 along with partner Wiggins also up 24%.
overall 1,100 pax drop.

The top guy at MHT is being humiliated into retirement, coming as the new Mayor turns the screws to see what’s going on there (or, more accurately, what isn’t going on). It would be a telling measure of karma if a new airline like B6 came in and numbers turned from red to black in 2019 (too late for 2018).

If MHT weren’t obligated to reveal traffic figures as a condition of receiving federal funds, they’d bury them. They absolutely would. MHT has been posting ‘No Confidence’ traffic figures for YEARS.

cheapgreek · Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:35 am

uconn99 wrote:
Turns out Aer Lingus is getting the entire 4.5 million revenue guarentee for the first year.

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article ... /302159939

"Aer Lingus Chief Commercial Officer Keith Butler (who has since left the company) told HBJ in 2016 that the the airline hoped to fill 105,000 seats in its first 12 months. Bradley data shows that it filled about 77,000."

Geez, what load factor is 105,000? 95%?

Reminds me of when NW had service to AMS and as soon as the seed money ran out, NW did also. The BDL market for international service is too small and with JFK on one end of the state and BOS on the other, BDL will be international in name only as it has been for many years. I have used JFK for years and the number of airlines and destinations is huge. Non-stops to all of Europe, Asia, South America and Central America. Remember when Bob Craft conned the state into thinking he was going to move the Patriots to Hartford, the Governor had news conferences and plans for a stadium drawn up, but all Craft was doing was using Hartford as a wedge to get what he wanted from Massachusetts, then at the last minute killed the deal. The Whalers left town and the Patriots never came to Hartford because the market is too small. Same thing with BDL, Fairfield county, the richest county in the state uses JFK, New London-Groton uses BOS, not much left to draw from. BDL is a good domestic airport but that's about it. Even if EI stays for a while, what happens if the flight is cancelled, can't be re-accommodated on another international flight so come back tomorrow. For this one reason alone I would never use BDL for international travel. In BOS I was put on another flight to Europe when mine was cancelled. Please don't go regional on me and have the be true to your state mentality, its just my 2 cents worth.

CairnterriAIR · Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:16 am

Northwest to AMS was not subsidized. The flight was axed due to the recession, extreme fuel costs, and looming bankruptcy at NW and merger with DL. The Whalers leaving town was a whole different ballgame involving bad management of the team itself, an NHL commissioner hell bent on moving teams to southern locations (how is that working out for them?), a shady back office dealing between a former governor who had stake in a megalomaniac’s computer software company who bought in with no intentions of keeping the team here, along with a clueless and corrupt incoming governor. The fans supported the team....for almost 20 years. The booster club still exists, and the Whaler logo is the best selling merchandise in the NHL.They only gave up when Karmanos killed the season ticket mini packages, jacked the prices of single tix, demanded full revenue from the arena, and free use of the arena while a new one was build. It was a joke. How are they doing in Carolina????I’ll give you the Patriots....but then again it was at the hands of the same governor who helped loose the Whalers.

Getting back to BDL, I get it...from many of your past posts...you hate the place..due to the state favoring it over HVN. Such is life. As for JFK....yes they have flights everywhere. But how many of those routes are prestige routes??? Paid for by their governments? Do you think some once a week flight to some Far East former Soviet republic makes any money? What happens if that flight cancels? And if your flight cancels at JFK, it doesn’t mean you will be on another flight within a few hours....look what happened a few weeks ago? And how many of those flights end up at BDL every time a thunderstorm rumbles over Rockway BLVD?? Cancellations happen at every airport. It happens, people deal with it.

CairnterriAIR · Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:18 am

CairnterriAIR wrote:
Northwest to AMS was not subsidized. The flight was axed due to the recession, extreme fuel costs, and looming bankruptcy at NW and merger with DL. The Whalers leaving town was a whole different ballgame involving bad management of the team itself, an NHL commissioner hell bent on moving teams to southern locations (how is that working out for them?), a shady back office dealing between a former governor who had stake in a megalomaniac’s computer software company who bought in with no intentions of keeping the team here, along with a clueless and corrupt incoming governor. The fans supported the team....for almost 20 years. The booster club still exists, and the Whaler logo is the best selling merchandise in the NHL.They only gave up when Karmanos killed the season ticket mini packages, jacked the prices of single tix, demanded full revenue from the arena, and free use of the arena while a new one was build. It was a joke. How are they doing in Carolina????I’ll give you the Patriots....but then again it was at the hands of the same governor who helped loose the Whalers.

Getting back to BDL, I get it...from many of your past posts...you hate the place..due to the state favoring it over HVN. Such is life. As for JFK....yes they have flights everywhere. But how many of those routes are prestige routes??? Paid for by their governments? Do you think some once a week flight to some Far East former Soviet republic makes any money? What happens if that flight cancels? And if your high frequency flight cancels at JFK, it doesn’t mean you will be on another flight within a few hours....look what happened a few weeks ago? And how many of those flights end up at BDL every time a thunderstorm rumbles over Rockway BLVD?? Cancellations happen at every airport. It happens, people deal with it.

cheapgreek · Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:38 pm

CairnterriAIR wrote:
Northwest to AMS was not subsidized. The flight was axed due to the recession, extreme fuel costs, and looming bankruptcy at NW and merger with DL. The Whalers leaving town was a whole different ballgame involving bad management of the team itself, an NHL commissioner hell bent on moving teams to southern locations (how is that working out for them?), a shady back office dealing between a former governor who had stake in a megalomaniac’s computer software company who bought in with no intentions of keeping the team here, along with a clueless and corrupt incoming governor. The fans supported the team....for almost 20 years. The booster club still exists, and the Whaler logo is the best selling merchandise in the NHL.They only gave up when Karmanos killed the season ticket mini packages, jacked the prices of single tix, demanded full revenue from the arena, and free use of the arena while a new one was build. It was a joke. How are they doing in Carolina????I’ll give you the Patriots....but then again it was at the hands of the same governor who helped loose the Whalers.

Getting back to BDL, I get it...from many of your past posts...you hate the place..due to the state favoring it over HVN. Such is life. As for JFK....yes they have flights everywhere. But how many of those routes are prestige routes??? Paid for by their governments? Do you think some once a week flight to some Far East former Soviet republic makes any money? What happens if that flight cancels? And if your flight cancels at JFK, it doesn’t mean you will be on another flight within a few hours....look what happened a few weeks ago? And how many of those flights end up at BDL every time a thunderstorm rumbles over Rockway BLVD?? Cancellations happen at every airport. It happens, people deal with it.

First, I don't hate BDL as it serves part of CT and part of MA. What irks me greatly is the states total disregard for travelers in the New Haven area by fighting tooth and nail against HVN's plan to pave the overruns thus opening up the airport to more service. The current AA flights to PHL are doing very well but the runway will not permit service beyond PHL so UA, DL are boxed out and Allegiant has said they would start Florida flights when the runway is upgraded. As far as sports teams, every other NHL city has a larger population base than Hartford and I remember attendance figures were low.

georgiabill · Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:41 pm

I am hoping the mayor of Manchester will request the rest of MHT management team to submit their resignations as well. Hopefully the mayor and city alderman will conduct a nation wide search for a new manager and allow him to bring in his own team. Hopefully the new team will think a bit out of the box to help stimulate growth at MHT than plan their next junket at airport expense.
Hopefully the new manager will contact Amazon to discuss making MHT the northern Boston alternative for Prime Air. Plenty of land to build a facility, a large ramp area to support feeder flights to smaller northern New England airports. Also room for UPS and Fedex to expand if BOS becomes to crowded.
For passenger service I hope they can get AA to add MHT-ORD 2 daily with E175'S morning and late afternoon departures from MHT, early afternoon and evening departures from ORD. A daily mainline to PHL and CLT. DL another daily ATL,mainline DTW and atleast a seasonal MHT-MSP service . WN additional daily service to MDW, restoration of MHT-DEN and MHT-FLL. Get WN to do a seasonal weekend service MHT-RSW.
For new airlines hopefully B6 or F9 should be contacted and presented with a business case for serving MHT. I think depending on the presentation F9 might look at flights from MHT to CLE,MCO,TPA and RDU, perhaps 2x or3x weekly from MHT.
The new management should take an under utilized gate and make it a FIS capable. Not expecting scheduled service,but perhaps charter service seasonally.

tomaheath · Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:45 pm

I’d like to see EI start service at Manchester.

NickolayAv · Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:03 pm

tomaheath wrote:
I’d like to see EI start service at Manchester.

Unrealistic IMO, Manchester is way too small. Not with flights to DUB from BOS, PVD, and BDL. Additionally, there is no CBP, so that would need to be built, and all their 757s are in service and there is no way they would send an A330, way too much capacity. I think getting a flight to the west coast of the US or Canada is a much larger priority and much more realistic.

VS4ever · Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:43 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
I’d like to see EI start service at Manchester.

Unrealistic IMO, Manchester is way too small. Not with flights to DUB from BOS, PVD, and BDL. Additionally, there is no CBP, so that would need to be built, and all their 757s are in service and there is no way they would send an A330, way too much capacity. I think getting a flight to the west coast of the US or Canada is a much larger priority and much more realistic.

Don’t forget more options will be available when the 321LR’s show up, however I agree, I doubt MHT will be on the list, at least initially.

iyerhari · Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:33 pm

The key challenge for MHT will always be the spillover to BOS which will always a lot of options compared to any airport. With Big Dig and WN presence at BOS, it is going to be challenging for MHT. Even B6 does not fly to MHT so maybe that is a start. I know people say PVD and BDL is getting new carriers, but barring EI and DY they haven't seen many international carriers flocking. The question is which one is going to stick for a longtime which is a different discussion. Massport is also continually upgrading and updating Logan and that will offer addnl. opportunities for addnl. carriers to come when addnl. gates in Terminal E open up. It is sad to see such useful infrastructure at MHT not being optimally used but I really do not know how well MHT can perform when BOS is so close.

cheapgreek · Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:57 pm

iyerhari wrote:
The key challenge for MHT will always be the spillover to BOS which will always a lot of options compared to any airport. With Big Dig and WN presence at BOS, it is going to be challenging for MHT. Even B6 does not fly to MHT so maybe that is a start. I know people say PVD and BDL is getting new carriers, but barring EI and DY they haven't seen many international carriers flocking. The question is which one is going to stick for a longtime which is a different discussion. Massport is also continually upgrading and updating Logan and that will offer addnl. opportunities for addnl. carriers to come when addnl. gates in Terminal E open up. It is sad to see such useful infrastructure at MHT not being optimally used but I really do not know how well MHT can perform when BOS is so close.

BOS cannot be beat. Wide array of domestic and international carriers and the most non-stop flights and a huge catchment area. The only other airport I see that will offer some international service over the long term is PVD, right off I-95, busiest highway in New England. MHT will stay the way it is or perhaps shrink a bit as BOS and PVD are a large draw.

shamrock350 · Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:29 pm

uconn99 wrote:
Turns out Aer Lingus is getting the entire 4.5 million revenue guarentee for the first year.

I wouldn't be overly concerned by this, if an incentive was on offer you can be sure that Aer Lingus would find a way to secure it for themselves and setting slightly unrealistic first year revenue targets may have been their way of doing it.

The route appears to have done well with 77,000 passengers in its first year and continued growth ever since, it's certainly not a figure an airline the size of Aer Lingus is likely to turn its nose up at. I don't think the incentive will make or break this route at all, it's a nice big cherry on top that Aer Lingus will want to keep for as long as they can but the route will likely stand on its own merits when the time comes and it's also part of a much bigger picture for Aer Lingus and their transatlantic strategy, with the first of eight A321LR aircraft arriving next year we'll see more routes like BDL launched and they won't want to be seen as an airline that just ups and runs when incentives run out.

A lot of people had written off DUB-BDL before it had even got off the ground but you can guarantee that Aer Lingus will work hard to make this route a success in its own right and will aim to replicate it elsewhere. The first year was a very, very encouraging start.

VS4ever · Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:33 pm

cheapgreek wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
The key challenge for MHT will always be the spillover to BOS which will always a lot of options compared to any airport. With Big Dig and WN presence at BOS, it is going to be challenging for MHT. Even B6 does not fly to MHT so maybe that is a start. I know people say PVD and BDL is getting new carriers, but barring EI and DY they haven't seen many international carriers flocking. The question is which one is going to stick for a longtime which is a different discussion. Massport is also continually upgrading and updating Logan and that will offer addnl. opportunities for addnl. carriers to come when addnl. gates in Terminal E open up. It is sad to see such useful infrastructure at MHT not being optimally used but I really do not know how well MHT can perform when BOS is so close.

BOS cannot be beat. Wide array of domestic and international carriers and the most non-stop flights and a huge catchment area. The only other airport I see that will offer some international service over the long term is PVD, right off I-95, busiest highway in New England. MHT will stay the way it is or perhaps shrink a bit as BOS and PVD are a large draw.

I am sure our PVD locals will know, but what level of capacity do we think PVD can handle. At the rate BOS is going unless they do something seriously radical and offensive to either the cargo community or the local residents, they are going to tap out on space, you can only add bigger aircraft to a certain extent. Now outside of E, it’s going to be very difficult for anyone but DL and B6 to grow as there just isn’t the space. We might be talking 2025-2030 but it’s surely got to happen right?
So back to PVD, And I am asking this because I really don’t know, looks like 17 gates. So how busy actually is the airport, because it might have to play reliever one day.
As for MHT, it’s day will likely only come if PVD and BOS are almost at capacity. Or someone decides to set up shop with a mini hub which is highly unlikely

Jetport · Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:50 pm

iyerhari wrote:
The key challenge for MHT will always be the spillover to BOS which will always a lot of options compared to any airport. With Big Dig and WN presence at BOS, it is going to be challenging for MHT. Even B6 does not fly to MHT so maybe that is a start. I know people say PVD and BDL is getting new carriers, but barring EI and DY they haven't seen many international carriers flocking. The question is which one is going to stick for a longtime which is a different discussion. Massport is also continually upgrading and updating Logan and that will offer addnl. opportunities for addnl. carriers to come when addnl. gates in Terminal E open up. It is sad to see such useful infrastructure at MHT not being optimally used but I really do not know how well MHT can perform when BOS is so close.

Ever since WN and B6 came to PWM I rarely use MHT due to similar fares out of PWM. It seems for the last 5 years or so that whenever I need a cheaper or more convenient flight than I can get out of PWM I end up in BOS not Manchester. I was quite surprised to see PWM within shouting distance of MHT in total passengers. PWM will likely pass MHT in passengers in 2019 or 2020 if current trends continue. PWM being bigger than MHT would have been unimaginable 10 or 15 years ago.

MHT = 1.97 Million 2017
PWM = 1.79 Million 2017

CairnterriAIR · Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:35 pm

shamrock350 wrote:
uconn99 wrote:
Turns out Aer Lingus is getting the entire 4.5 million revenue guarentee for the first year.

I wouldn't be overly concerned by this, if an incentive was on offer you can be sure that Aer Lingus would find a way to secure it for themselves and setting slightly unrealistic first year revenue targets may have been their way of doing it.

The route appears to have done well with 77,000 passengers in its first year and continued growth ever since, it's certainly not a figure an airline the size of Aer Lingus is likely to turn its nose up at. I don't think the incentive will make or break this route at all, it's a nice big cherry on top that Aer Lingus will want to keep for as long as they can but the route will likely stand on its own merits when the time comes and it's also part of a much bigger picture for Aer Lingus and their transatlantic strategy, with the first of eight A321LR aircraft arriving next year we'll see more routes like BDL launched and they won't want to be seen as an airline that just ups and runs when incentives run out.

A lot of people had written off DUB-BDL before it had even got off the ground but you can guarantee that Aer Lingus will work hard to make this route a success in its own right and will aim to replicate it elsewhere. The first year was a very, very encouraging start.

I agree here 100%.

uconn99 · Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:48 pm

cheapgreek wrote:
First, I don't hate BDL as it serves part of CT and part of MA. What irks me greatly is the states total disregard for travelers in the New Haven area by fighting tooth and nail against HVN's plan to pave the overruns thus opening up the airport to more service. The current AA flights to PHL are doing very well but the runway will not permit service beyond PHL so UA, DL are boxed out and Allegiant has said they would start Florida flights when the runway is upgraded. As far as sports teams, every other NHL city has a larger population base than Hartford and I remember attendance figures were low.

Lets use some numbers.....

First of all the I-91 corridor from New Haven to Springfield has around 2.6 million people, larger than some NHL markets. If you look at media markets, Hartford is ranked 30th just after Nashville and larger than San Antonio, Columbus, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Austin, Las Vegas, Oklahoma City, Louisville, New Orleans, Memphis, Providence, and Buffalo to name a few.

The Whalers made the playoff's twice during their time in Hartford. Management was terrible and put crap teams on the ice and attendance hurt because of that. Meanwhile in Carolina where the team has made 2 Stanley cup's and won it all in 2006 has had terrible attendance over the past 10 years and have not sold out playoff games in the past. The Whalers were always well supported but who wants to attend a game when the team just flat out sucked 90% of the time? In '97 there was a season ticket drive to get 13,000 packages sold which the team met and still left the state. Hartford can support a major league team with the correct owner in place and a new modern arena. Time will tell.

Carolina Hurricanes Attendance-

2017/18- 13,291 per game ranked 29/31 teams
2016/17- 11,776 ranked last
2015/16- 12,203 ranked last
2014/15- 12,594 ranked 29th
2013/14- 15,483 ranked 23rd
2012/13- 17,558 ranked 17th
2011/12- 16,042 ranked 22nd
2010/11- 16,415 ranked 20th
2009/10- 15,240 ranked 23rd
2008/09- 16,572 ranked 20th

As you can see from the above attendance numbers, Carolina is struggling and won't be in Raleigh for much longer IMO even with a new owner in place.

But lets get back on subject.....

TATLTALE · Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:50 pm

I'm always happy to hear about PWM, mostly for personal reasons (I love the city and its quirky-in-a-good-way folks).
I'm surprised that ORDPWM isn't more solid, as with MDWPDM. If anyone would make it work year round, it should be WN. Maybe the longstanding bias of travel from ME to FL simply trumps any other destinations?
I've always wondered if there would ever be a way to lure seasonal cruise-driven Tatl service, e.g. 1/w Condor or Edelweiss (or similar). Lots of fall traffic especially and its a much more pleasant point of arrival than BOS or YUL (other pivots of the cruise trajectories at that time). There would need to be more customs support but that was done at SWF, so there's a president.
Other than that, management has done well to keep things steady for a small city close to larger metropolises. And I agree Elite is an oddball - I fully expected them to fall apart within a year. I'm glad to be shown incorrect.

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
A few PWM notes.

AA is recommencing PWM-ORD, seasonally, in April with CRJ7. The last time they tried this route was about 15 years ago and it didn't last more than two years. If that?

http://www.portlandjetport.org/news/ame ... re-service

AA is also reintroducing PWM-LGA. Within the last fige years, US traded their PWM-LGA slots to DL in exchange for some of DL's DCA slots. Again, both DL and AA will fly to LGA.

http://www.portlandjetport.org/news/ame ... york-city-–-laguardia-service

Southwest will return seasonal, Saturday only service from MDW-PWM-MDW June 6th

Seasonal service MCO-PWM-MCO will also resume this year on March 10th.

UA seems to upgauged the equipment on the late evening arrival/early morning departure to EWR to mainline equipment? 737 all of December, and A320s for the last couple weeks. I thought it was just for Christmas season, but the RJ's haven't returned this year like they usually do after the holiday rush subsides. (This past summer they were using A319/A320 on PWM-IAD. The first mainline service on this UA route since early 1990s)

Elite Airways, whose headquarters is in downtown Portland, continues to thrive at PWM.

When they started their non-stops to Florida on RJ's a few years ago, I didn't expect them to last long. Not just on the route, but as an operating airline in general. Instead, they've added flights from PWM. Now flying non-stop to SRQ and MBS. On days when there's enough demand, they'll occasional operate an unscheduled additional flight.

A year old, but nevertheless,

'Portland Jetport sets all-time passenger record'
'
http://www.mainebiz.biz/article/2017020 ... ger-record

uconn99 · Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:52 pm

Can someone post HVN numbers? I keep hearing the flights are doing great but see no evidence to support that. Past numbers before the transition to jets have typically been in the 60's and 70's load factor if I recall correctly.

RL757PVD · Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:25 am

PVD has a total of 19 Jet Bridge Gates plus 4 commuter gates (1A, 1, 9A and 20), Gate 10 has a door with no jetbridge (if one was added, Gate 9 would swing to cover 9A, as Gate 9 used the Gate 10 parking spot),

All vacant gates are now common use (2, 7, 8, 14 and 22) with Gates 2,7 and 8 getting the highest utilization between F9 and DY but still plenty of room for more. There have been previous plans showing up to an additional 10-12 gates that would be added with minimal difficulty.

What do I think PVD will look like in 10 years?

AA- Largest network carrier with DFW and MIA added, ORD expanded possibly LAX
F9 - Assuming their business model stays the same, probably between 12 and 15 daily flights (emphasis on the first part of the statement)
UA - Their existing schedule is a joke, but as they are marginalized at BOS by others, perhaps an opportunity for double what they have now (which is still way less than what has been offered previously)
B6 - only marginally larger, perhaps JFK gets added into the mix at 2x
DL - focus will remain on BOS but up to 5 ATL, 4 DTW and 1-2 MSP
WN - There has been no LUV for PVD as they have been trying unsuccessfully to establish themselves at BOS. While their BOS network is more of a function of the portfolio needs for other stronger WN station, the underperformance holds them back from growing at PVD. I will go out on a limb and say that WN finally introducing redeyes will get LAS and maybe PHX back. with DEN and maybe HOU inside 10 years.
G4 - Slow incremental growth, wildcard to make PVD a Seasonal New England Base in the summer with destination like PIT CLE AVL IND
AC - Slow growth to 2-3x RJs
9K Returns
AS enters with LAX and SFO if they work to become B6 of the west coast. They can stem a lot of leakage going to their competitors by starting PVD

International:
The market will ultimately correct itself and whoever or whatever airlines are at PVD will be focused on Ireland, UK and Portugal/Azores (DUB/SNN/LON/PDL/LIS) in a low cost fashion.
Wildcard being WOW or Primera if DY goes belly up and BOS costs rise with the new terminal.
If DY tanks, I say EI is at PVD with a 321 with a similar schedule to todays BDL
I could see DE or a DE like carrier returning once BOS maxes out.
CUN and perhaps markets like SDQ and PUJ will be served by someone. (the FDF and PTP flights wont be there).

PHLCVGAMTK · Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:44 am

TATLTALE wrote:
I'm always happy to hear about PWM, mostly for personal reasons (I love the city and its quirky-in-a-good-way folks).
I'm surprised that ORDPWM isn't more solid, as with MDWPDM. If anyone would make it work year round, it should be WN. Maybe the longstanding bias of travel from ME to FL simply trumps any other destinations?
I've always wondered if there would ever be a way to lure seasonal cruise-driven Tatl service, e.g. 1/w Condor or Edelweiss (or similar). Lots of fall traffic especially and its a much more pleasant point of arrival than BOS or YUL (other pivots of the cruise trajectories at that time). There would need to be more customs support but that was done at SWF, so there's a president.
Other than that, management has done well to keep things steady for a small city close to larger metropolises. And I agree Elite is an oddball - I fully expected them to fall apart within a year. I'm glad to be shown incorrect.

PWM has a runway-length problem for TATL. It's not entirely prohibitively short, but it means a tradeoff between a smaller plane (NEO or MAX) that has to take a payload restriction to get off the runway, or a larger plane with better short-field performance that can't be filled. Not a good circle to have to square, at least if you're an airline that likes making money. FI or WW might be able to make it to KEF without a restriction; D8 or EI to DUB or SNN is less likely. I'll leave it to better spreadsheets to do the precise calculations.

PVD757 · Sat Feb 24, 2018 1:53 am

I’ll add a bit of information on the gate usage.

AA has 4 gates for 19 flights. They could easily add 2 more flights per gate.

UA has 3 gates for 5-10 flights depending on what month. They could easily double service with 3 gates.

B6 has 1 gate with 3 flights. They could double and still only need 1 gate.

DL has 2 gates and 6 flights. They could come close to doubling flights with 2 gates.

WN has 4 gates and 17-22 flights. They could come close to doubling flights with 4 gates.

5 common use gates for AC (assuming they go there), G4, F9, D8, and S4. By my count, there will 62 weekly departures this June from these 5 gates. This is less than 2 flights per day per gate, so there is maybe room to double or triple flights from these gates.

Depending who adds and scheduling, PVD could roughly double the number of flights before it would be forced to add gates.

VS4ever · Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:46 am

uconn99 wrote:
Can someone post HVN numbers? I keep hearing the flights are doing great but see no evidence to support that. Past numbers before the transition to jets have typically been in the 60's and 70's load factor if I recall correctly.

You are in the right ball park. I post the numbers for HVN-PHL monthly (although I am a little behind on that right now). I just pulled the T-100's up to Nov 17 (latest available) loads that have been posted do not vary greatly between 75-80% every month and average out at 77% combined for the year. even the splits of outbound and inbound are only 1.3% different, total pax YTD 50,782 (combined direction)

PVD757 wrote:
I’ll add a bit of information on the gate usage.

AA has 4 gates for 19 flights. They could easily add 2 more flights per gate.

UA has 3 gates for 5-10 flights depending on what month. They could easily double service with 3 gates.

B6 has 1 gate with 3 flights. They could double and still only need 1 gate.

DL has 2 gates and 6 flights. They could come close to doubling flights with 2 gates.

WN has 4 gates and 17-22 flights. They could come close to doubling flights with 4 gates.

5 common use gates for AC (assuming they go there), G4, F9, D8, and S4. By my count, there will 62 weekly departures this June from these 5 gates. This is less than 2 flights per day per gate, so there is maybe room to double or triple flights from these gates.

Depending who adds and scheduling, PVD could roughly double the number of flights before it would be forced to add gates.

I hoped you might weigh in on this one and I appreciate the detail.

cheapgreek · Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:06 am

uconn99 wrote:
Can someone post HVN numbers? I keep hearing the flights are doing great but see no evidence to support that. Past numbers before the transition to jets have typically been in the 60's and 70's load factor if I recall correctly.

I've watching the flights every few days and many flights are sold out and many are in the 40+ seat range. Several times AA has put a CRJ-700 on the route and it has done good in carrying more passengers and is better off short runways. Starting June 1, AA is limiting outbound flights to 48 seats to deal with weight restrictions with the hotter summer days. I think AA will upgauge some flights to the CRJ-700 as summer are heavier travel times. There are two avenues being pursued in regards the runway project. A pending appeals court case and a push for the state legislators to amend or rescind the the 2009 MOA. I am hoping for either to happen soon. This area is woefully underserved and an upgraded runway will almost assuredly bring DL and UA to the airport as I am sure they are watching HVN's boarding numbers. For more info on HVN's developments see, https://www.facebook.com/tweedfacts/

iyerhari · Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:35 am

PVD757 wrote:
I’ll add a bit of information on the gate usage.

UA - Their existing schedule is a joke, but as they are marginalized at BOS by others, perhaps an opportunity for double what they have now (which is still way less than what has been offered previously)

International:
The market will ultimately correct itself and whoever or whatever airlines are at PVD will be focused on Ireland, UK and Portugal/Azores (DUB/SNN/LON/PDL/LIS) in a low cost fashion.
Wildcard being WOW or Primera if DY goes belly up and BOS costs rise with the new terminal.
If DY tanks, I say EI is at PVD with a 321 with a similar schedule to todays BDL
I could see DE or a DE like carrier returning once BOS maxes out.
CUN and perhaps markets like SDQ and PUJ will be served by someone. (the FDF and PTP flights wont be there).

d gates.[/quote]
UA holds one of the largest stations in BOS-SFO. It will be interesting how long these low cost carriers can sustain if the price of oil goes up OR if there is another recession. I am not speaking purely in terms of PVD or BOS but in-general how these low cost carriers can sustain with throwaway fares.

cheapgreek · Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:06 pm

uconn99 wrote:
cheapgreek wrote:
First, I don't hate BDL as it serves part of CT and part of MA. What irks me greatly is the states total disregard for travelers in the New Haven area by fighting tooth and nail against HVN's plan to pave the overruns thus opening up the airport to more service. The current AA flights to PHL are doing very well but the runway will not permit service beyond PHL so UA, DL are boxed out and Allegiant has said they would start Florida flights when the runway is upgraded. As far as sports teams, every other NHL city has a larger population base than Hartford and I remember attendance figures were low.

Lets use some numbers.....

First of all the I-91 corridor from New Haven to Springfield has around 2.6 million people, larger than some NHL markets. If you look at media markets, Hartford is ranked 30th just after Nashville and larger than San Antonio, Columbus, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Austin, Las Vegas, Oklahoma City, Louisville, New Orleans, Memphis, Providence, and Buffalo to name a few.

The Whalers made the playoff's twice during their time in Hartford. Management was terrible and put crap teams on the ice and attendance hurt because of that. Meanwhile in Carolina where the team has made 2 Stanley cup's and won it all in 2006 has had terrible attendance over the past 10 years and have not sold out playoff games in the past. The Whalers were always well supported but who wants to attend a game when the team just flat out sucked 90% of the time? In '97 there was a season ticket drive to get 13,000 packages sold which the team met and still left the state. Hartford can support a major league team with the correct owner in place and a new modern arena. Time will tell.

Carolina Hurricanes Attendance-

2017/18- 13,291 per game ranked 29/31 teams
2016/17- 11,776 ranked last
2015/16- 12,203 ranked last
2014/15- 12,594 ranked 29th
2013/14- 15,483 ranked 23rd
2012/13- 17,558 ranked 17th
2011/12- 16,042 ranked 22nd
2010/11- 16,415 ranked 20th
2009/10- 15,240 ranked 23rd
2008/09- 16,572 ranked 20th

As you can see from the above attendance numbers, Carolina is struggling and won't be in Raleigh for much longer IMO even with a new owner in place.

But lets get back on subject.....

Media rankings are only part of the picture and NHL TV viewing is down while the other major leagues are up. Metro population totals count toward season tickets and out of your list, nine cities rank higher than Hartford, San Antonio 24, Cincinnati 28, Kansas City 30, Austin 31, Columbus 33, Providence 38, Milwaukee 39, Oklahoma City 41, Memphis 42, Hartford 47. All I am trying to say is that being sandwiched between two very large cities, New York and Boston, Hartford, New Haven and Springfield are very small and can never have the status of the big two. It also means BDL will never be offering a wide range of international flights with the other two being closer to much of the states population and being light years ahead in the number of airlines and non-stop flights and being desired destinations with many tourist attractions. I was born in New Haven and grew up there and the closest we ever got to having a major league team was when the New York Giants played at the Yale bowl for two years while Yankee stadium was being refurbished and for international flights, everybody I knew flew JFK.

lat41 · Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:16 am

VS4ever wrote:
Another year, another drop in MHT pax numbers. They've released Jan 18 to show a 0.9% drop year over year.
https://www.flymanchester.com/sites/def ... 202018.pdf
Not too much to talk about given it's only 1 month, however WN was down 5%, and UA trended down big time, with upticks for DL and a little for AA to trade off.
The bigger movement was actually on the cargo side with UPS up 24% and Fed Ex up 9.3 along with partner Wiggins also up 24%.
overall 1,100 pax drop.

Southwest deliberately discourages anything headed West from MHT by keeping the rates high in order to prop up BOS. There they face hammering competition from established and ULCCs, perhaps more than they thought. So where they had full planes from MHT with passengers used to paying a premium, now the business they plucked from MHT is being sold often at lowball, low yield prices. Add to this is all the Westbound lift for WN at BOS via MKE STL DEN MCI BNA DAL HOU and more while anything headed West from Manchester is squeezed through Midway and Baltimore and you have this drain. It is not airport management's fault this is happening. Perhaps as WN gets its butt kicked at BOS, the pendulum may swing back somewhat. Until then...

jplatts · Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:48 am

lat41 wrote:
Southwest deliberately discourages anything headed West from MHT by keeping the rates high in order to prop up BOS. There they face hammering competition from established and ULCCs, perhaps more than they thought. So where they had full planes from MHT with passengers used to paying a premium, now the business they plucked from MHT is being sold often at lowball, low yield prices. Add to this is all the Westbound lift for WN at BOS via MKE STL DEN MCI BNA DAL HOU and more while anything headed West from Manchester is squeezed through Midway and Baltimore and you have this drain. It is not airport management's fault this is happening. Perhaps as WN gets its butt kicked at BOS, the pendulum may swing back somewhat. Until then...

There might be enough demand for WN to possibly add nonstop service to ATL, DEN, LAS, and STL from MHT. WN could also possibly add MHT-DCA nonstop service if WN can get extra slots at DCA. Most of the other destinations do not have enough demand for nonstop service on WN from MHT.

One of the biggest reasons why WN has nonstop service to BOS but not to MHT or PVD from ATL, CMH, DAL, DEN, HOU, IND, MCI, MKE, BNA, and STL is that most of the passengers traveling to BOS from these places are going to destinations in Greater Boston that are closer to BOS than to MHT or PVD.

pwm2txlhopper · Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:44 pm

The following was in todays Portland Press Herald. I didn't realize PWM had grown quite as much as it has in the last few years.

I hate how they list the top three markets as NYC, Washington and ATL, when those probably aren't the top O/D markets, as most those recorded passengers are connecting in those places.

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/02/27/ ... /comments/

BUSINESS Posted 3/28/18 at 1:02 PM
Passenger counts at Maine’s biggest airports reached new heights last year

"Portland and Bangor set all-time records in 2017, with more than 1.8 million passengers passing through the Portland International Jetport.

RL757PVD · Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:54 pm

Frontier announced PVD-MYR 3x weekly starting in May. I'm surprised G4 didn't jump on this first.

uconn99 · Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:58 pm

Any chance Frontier goes back to BDL? I know its a different airline then when they last served BDL but wondering if they would give it a shot now with some point to point flying.

jplatts · Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:23 pm

uconn99 wrote:
Any chance Frontier goes back to BDL? I know its a different airline then when they last served BDL but wondering if they would give it a shot now with some point to point flying.

BDL already has nonstop service to Florida on American, jetBlue, Southwest, and Spirit. In addition, DEN also already has nonstop service from BDL on United and Southwest. Spirit also has seasonal nonstop service to MYR from BDL, and Delta also has seasonal nonstop service to MCO from BDL.

Frontier could serve its DEN home base nonstop if it re-enters BDL, but there is no need for Frontier to serve Florida destinations nonstop from BDL with AA, DL, B6, WN, and NK already serving Florida destinations nonstop from BDL.

uconn99 · Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:24 pm

January 2018 Bradley International Airport Passengers-

Total Passengers-

January 2018- 469,205 +1.8%
January 2017- 461,082

Domestic by Airline January 2018-

American- 115,066
Southwest- 111,405
Delta- 78,789
jetBlue- 71,511
United- 47,299
Spirit- 35,975
Onejet- 362

International by Airline January 2018-

January 2018 total International- 8,798
January 2017 total International- 7,932

Air Canada- 3,376
Aer Lingus- 2,695
Norwegian- 1,510
Delta (CUN flight)- 1,217

pwm2txlhopper · Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:33 pm

Just announced, Frontier to start service to PWM

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/04/04/ ... -portland/

pwm2txlhopper · Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:35 pm

Just announced, Frontier to start service to PWM

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/04/04/ ... -portland/

33lspotter · Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:50 pm

pwm2txlhopper wrote:
Just announced, Frontier to start service to PWM

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/04/04/ ... -portland/

Exciting times for PWM! Will be curious to see if it lasts beyond the year but there has been quite a decent amount of growth in recent years. First flight for PWM west of the Mississippi (not counting MSP, which is technically on the west bank of said river). Looks like they will be flying the A320 to DEN at least.

RL757PVD · Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:31 pm

I wonder if this will put PWM over the top of MHT in 2018

S0Y · Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:57 pm

DY to cut ORK/SNN/EDI - PVD routes for Winter (Nov-Feb)

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cor ... 35626.html

iyerhari · Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:14 pm

It will be interesting to see how long any of the DY flights from and to PVD will survive even in 2019. DY is concentrating on two core destinations from BOS - LGW and CDG and that is a good shot for them.

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