AviationGeek78 wrote:Bluegrass60 wrote:If you are a DL FF why would you ever choose the WN option? Answer - never. Gold and above can change.
Status on WN? Huh? A List and a drink. Whoopee.
Again, would love to see WN win this battle because would like to see WN expand short haul flying.
Just don't see it happening on BNA-ATL unless WN starts losing focus at BNA and increases focus in ATL. (not likely)
At the end of the day will BNA hold at 5 r/t's probably not. But what has been said over and over again is that this will create an additional O/D market. I, along with so many drive between BNA and ATL and vice versa. That drive has become miserable. I have driven the route at least 200 times in my lifetime and over the course of the last 5-7 years trying to get through Chattanooga without getting frustrated is slim to none. The last time I drove down I left Nashville at 10pm and it was smooth sailing. Aside from that you can count on a good 4.5 hours between city centers and let's not forget our current gas prices which have spiked .30 cents more on average per galloon since the beginning of the year. Another thing I will add since you make claims that WN is only successful in Nashville because of connecting pax, come down to baggage claim as the flights come in and stand with the herds of people as they claim their bags. I recently flew in on a full 737-800 from Orlando and I can assure you that 7 out of 10 people on that plane got off in Nashville. No one said there aren't connecting pax on WN. Your math is just wrong. Btw did you happen to catch the hoards of people lined down Broadway for Luke Bryan's event last night? The tourism and convention life in BNA is quite strong, not to mention our massive population boom. That isn't saying Louisville isn't a cool spot, I have family there and quite enjoy it. It, however, is extremely expensive to fly in and out of. I don't think Indy and Cincy being so close help with that. BNA has a large catchment area with little to no pull from other airports. Finally the Delta flights before SWA started were always full. I used to work for one of their regionals and I lived in ATL as the time. Trying to non rev back home was always a battle. BNA was a cash cow for them. I have no doubt that both will survive. Delta will just lose a little margin. Let's just wait to see the YOY numbers. More people will fly this route and less will drive. With all due respect we will have to agree to disagree on that. Remember, those of us who have disagreed with you actually live here or are very familiar with BNA. You are doing a Chris Collinsworth Sunday morning quarterback review of what is going on and we know how accurate he is. No offense.
"AviationGeek78 - appreciate your thoughtful and respectful post. I would LUV to see WN be successful on the route...and perhaps they can if fuel prices hold steady AND they keep a lid on fares. I do not live in Nashville but am pretty familiar with the area. When WN started the flights they said the Nashville business community (healthcare particularly) wanted more flight options to ATL. Much of Nashville healthcare is in Williamson County...along with HCA in West End/Gulch. So let's say I live in Brentwood and wanna go to ATL (midtown, Buckhead, perimeter north which is where the likely healthcare destination is). I have booked the 5:55AM CST WN flight to ATL. I get up at 4:30AM, leave at 4.50AM arrive BNA 5:20AM; negotiate parking, security, concourse and arrive C gate 5:40AM; board flight and take-off. Arrive on-time ATL 7:55AM EST. Negotiate concourse to MARTA and take train to Peachtree Center where I have meeting at 9AM. It is over at 11AM. I head back to the MARTA station and catch train to ATL arriving @11;30AM. TSA Pre-check and get to C Concourse by Noon to catch 12:25PM flight back to Nashville. Departs on time and lands BNA 12:35PM. Leave airport 12:50 and head back to office in Brentwood with a quick stop for lunch. Arrive office 2PM and work till 5:30 to go home. For that type trip....sure am glad WN (or DL) was ready when I was. I expensed $320 for the flight; MARTA was $10 and parking was $15 plus mileage to/from BNA $15 for a total expense of $360 and I made the meeting in ATL and worked 3 1/2 hours back in Nashville. (If I had driven, would have expensed $268 in mileage and $20 for parking at Peachtree Center). Would have spent 9 hours or more to make the RT trip and not been able to work as much (except on the phone while driving). (All of the above is timed for perfection....which is not likely)
There are other non-god-awful departures to ATL on WN and DL thankfully but the above is a scenario that could happen and likely does every day. Does it happen enough to fill all those seats? I dunno.
I never said WN is successful at BNA because of connecting traffic. What I have said is that Nashville could not profitably support WNs 113 daily departures AND the departures on all the other carriers without meaningful connections for WN at BNA. If there were no Focus at BNA by WN....the likely WN schedule would be 40-50 departures. Still a big station but nonstops to PNS and ECP would not happen and there would be fewer departures to MDW, BWI, HOU, MCO etc. etc. If 7/10 of your fellow passengers collected bags upon arrival at BNA...that means 30% connected....
I did see that Luke Bryan attracted 30,000 to So Broadway to celebrate the opening of his honky tonk. The concert was free. Free attracts lots of people. How many of those 30,000 flew into Nashville for that concert? or flew into Nashville to go honky tonking? I dunno.
No question Nashville tourism and population have boomed particularly since 2011. According to a 9/5/2018 article Nashville is the 8th most expensive tourist destination in US @$1898. (Meals $316, Drinks $45, 3 nite hotel $813 and airfare $723). Cheapest is MCO @$1,182. Am sure you can get cheaper airfare am also sure you can spend way more on hotel and food/drinks. SDF airfares may not be as low as BNA but they are ok and have been trending down with the addition of Allegiant and Frontier.
SDF definitely leaks passengers to CVG and IND and some to BNA (from the southern part of catchment area) That leakage has been going on for years and was particulalry troublesome when DL operated a full fledged hub at CVG.
Am certain DL made money on their BNA flights to ATL....and they will survive the WN assault. I would suggest the majority of the DL traffic to ATL is connecting beyond ATL however. The question is how long WN can operate 5 daily departures vs DL and all their FF in the Nashville area. At the end of the day...WN to ATL will only make it because of connecting traffic coming into BNA from elsewhere and connecting at BNA onto ATL....otherwise they will reduce frequencies or eliminate the route.
We can agree to disagree....will say again...I do hope WN is successful as that could motivate them to get back in the short haul game again. SDF lost service to STL and BHM when WN decided to become more long haul focused. For business travelers like me...that is a mistake....but....the WN short hauls all over the country have failed to return...yet.