What's Going On In Nashville? - 2018

ADrum23 · Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:34 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
MSY has had the route longer so it has had more time to mature and they have a better handle on demand. Nashville still needs to establish things. I would guess next year it would be 5x over winter (or more).

MSY had 5x winter during their first year, so idk what is going on.

southwest1675 · Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:52 pm

It’s a shame we’re out of ticket counter and gate space right now. Now would be a good time to welcome new carriers. As far as ticket space goes, I think AA would be fine giving up another slice, but I’m not sure if that’ll happen. I wonder if we’ll get 1 more WN addition this year.

gsg013 · Sat Jul 28, 2018 6:21 pm

I have noticed that the A321 will become much more prominent for DL at BNA in the late fall into the Winter. Just went to book a flight down to Kew West in November and mostly the BNA-ATL flights will be A321 with the occasional MD-88. Excited to see the A321's really start taking over a large portion of the former MD-88 routes.

Also have seen that the A321 will be on a number of the DL BNA-DTW rotations in the fall going forward.

flymco753 · Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:07 pm

gsg013 wrote:
Also have seen that the A321 will be on a number of the DL BNA-DTW rotations in the fall going forward.

Looks like the A321 will only do DTW-BNA at the end of November before reverting back to all 717's in December.

HeyHey · Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:18 am

I just took the BNA-LHR flight yesterday in premium economy/world traveller plus. It is really nice to have such easy access to Europe now. I know there has been talk of how full they are, but I wanted some actual numbers....so I just counted how many seats were empty during a trip to the lavatory. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to count the forward section of business class, but everything else I was able to.

Aft section of business class/Club World: 13 of 14 seats occupied (93%)
Premium economy/World Traveller Plus: 24 of 25 seats occupied (96%)
Economy/World Traveller: 138 of 154 seats occupied (90%)

I would also add that the forward section of business class/Club World appeared pretty full when I was loading, but I don't have a count. Assuming it roughly mirrored the aft section, the load factor for my flight was well north of 90% and they have to be yielding well since the prices aren't cheap and they are filling their premium offerings. Definitely bodes well for future service IMO. If anything, I over counted empty seats. I could have missed a small child in a seat in economy, missed them sitting in their parent's lap, or missed an adult who was leaned over or in the lavatory.

BTW, I definitely think premium economy is the best deal. Business class just isn't worth the cost, IMO, when comparing it to the product and price of their premium economy class.

Cubsrule · Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:57 am

ADrum23 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
MSY has had the route longer so it has had more time to mature and they have a better handle on demand. Nashville still needs to establish things. I would guess next year it would be 5x over winter (or more).

MSY had 5x winter during their first year, so idk what is going on.

It could be Nashville demand, of course, but as the number of sub-daily flights grows (see PIT), it’s hard for me to be concerned about a frequency or two. While I would love daily year-round service on the 388, as we all would, there are a number of moving parts that have nothing to do with Nashville.

ADrum23 · Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:31 am

HeyHey wrote:
I just took the BNA-LHR flight yesterday in premium economy/world traveller plus. It is really nice to have such easy access to Europe now. I know there has been talk of how full they are, but I wanted some actual numbers....so I just counted how many seats were empty during a trip to the lavatory. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to count the forward section of business class, but everything else I was able to.

Aft section of business class/Club World: 13 of 14 seats occupied (93%)
Premium economy/World Traveller Plus: 24 of 25 seats occupied (96%)
Economy/World Traveller: 138 of 154 seats occupied (90%)

I would also add that the forward section of business class/Club World appeared pretty full when I was loading, but I don't have a count. Assuming it roughly mirrored the aft section, the load factor for my flight was well north of 90% and they have to be yielding well since the prices aren't cheap and they are filling their premium offerings. Definitely bodes well for future service IMO. If anything, I over counted empty seats. I could have missed a small child in a seat in economy, missed them sitting in their parent's lap, or missed an adult who was leaned over or in the lavatory.

BTW, I definitely think premium economy is the best deal. Business class just isn't worth the cost, IMO, when comparing it to the product and price of their premium economy class.

I concur with this. As I mentioned last week after I took the flight both ways, I saw maybe one open seat both ways. I tried upgrading to World Traveler Plus (premium economy) and I couldn't, as it was full. The flight overall was packed, including in J. I don't see why this can't become daily.

Lexy · Sun Jul 29, 2018 4:10 am

Patience my friends. Let it mature some

southwest1675 · Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:46 am

I had the opportunity to talk to an MNAA board member. I brought up BNA Vision, and as we expected a few years ago, the idea of building a new terminal and facilities east of 20L/2R was looked into heavily. They scrapped the idea and decided it would be more logical to expand off the current facilities to the best of their abilities. Thought that was interesting.

EvanWSFO · Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:07 pm

I haven't flown the past few weeks, and it may be up in this thread somewhere, but is there runway construction going on? I'm seeing quite a few departures off of 13 lately.

southwest1675 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:33 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
I haven't flown the past few weeks, and it may be up in this thread somewhere, but is there runway construction going on? I'm seeing quite a few departures off of 13 lately.

2L/20R has been closed for some construction.

EvanWSFO · Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:06 am

southwest1675 wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
I haven't flown the past few weeks, and it may be up in this thread somewhere, but is there runway construction going on? I'm seeing quite a few departures off of 13 lately.

2L/20R has been closed for some construction.

Thanks. I suspected such. Nice to see some movements off 13. I almost veered off Briley Pkwy. when I saw a UA 320 climbing out.

LHRFlyer · Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:02 am

At IAG's results presentation yesterday, Willie Walsh described the performance of LHR-BNA as "stunning".

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:17 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
At IAG's results presentation yesterday, Willie Walsh described the performance of LHR-BNA as "stunning".

Any indications of when it could be increased to daily and possibly upgauged to a 789?

southwest1675 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:31 pm

I think we could see another international announcement sometime soon.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:10 pm

This flew under the radar, but it appears WS flights are doing quite well. I don't have actual load factors, but BNA-YYC is now up to 5x weekly through October 21 and has been extended and additional month until the end of November (4x week October 22-28, 3x week October 29-November 25 and 1x week November 26-December 2).

Meanwhile, BNA-YYZ is daily, will go down to 6x week for the winter and will resume daily in the spring, but they have had mainline on the route Monday's and Friday's (73G's) during the summer. I don't see why this couldn't go mainline year round, especially as it would give them an advantage over AC.

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/book-trip/direct-flights/index

With the recent announcement of the joint venture between DL and WS, I can only imagine this will help the existing WS BNA flights and could lead to a new route being added (YUL, YVR?)

southwest1675 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:17 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
This flew under the radar, but it appears WS flights are doing quite well. I don't have actual load factors, but BNA-YYC is now up to 5x weekly through October 21 and has been extended and additional month until the end of November (4x week October 22-28, 3x week October 29-November 25 and 1x week November 26-December 2).

Meanwhile, BNA-YYZ is daily, will go down to 6x week for the winter and will resume daily in the spring, but they have had mainline on the route Monday's and Friday's (73G's) during the summer. I don't see why this couldn't go mainline year round, especially as it would give them an advantage over AC.

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/book-trip/direct-flights/index

With the recent announcement of the joint venture between DL and WS, I can only imagine this will help the existing WS BNA flights and could lead to a new route being added (YUL, YVR?)

WS to YVR I think could happen.

EvanWSFO · Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:24 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
I think we could see another international announcement sometime soon.

With Volaris announcing ABQ and CLT, I wonder if BNA can support a few weekly flights to GDL. Not everyone wants to go to Cancun and the Latino population in middle TN is pretty large.

southwest1675 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:41 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
I think we could see another international announcement sometime soon.

With Volaris announcing ABQ and CLT, I wonder if BNA can support a few weekly flights to GDL. Not everyone wants to go to Cancun and the Latino population in middle TN is pretty large.

Ive also thought about this. If they were to come, they could take another slice of AA ticket counter space, and probably use B10 along with G4. I do think if some carrier needed their own gate, AA could also give up C2 as they only use that gate for terminating and originating flights.

LHRFlyer · Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:43 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
At IAG's results presentation yesterday, Willie Walsh described the performance of LHR-BNA as "stunning".

Any indications of when it could be increased to daily and possibly upgauged to a 789?

Nothing was said about aircraft or frequency changes, but Willie Walsh was clearly very enthusiastic about its performance.

ADrum23 · Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:47 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
At IAG's results presentation yesterday, Willie Walsh described the performance of LHR-BNA as "stunning".

Any indications of when it could be increased to daily and possibly upgauged to a 789?

Nothing was said about aircraft or frequency changes, but Willie Walsh was clearly very enthusiastic about its performance.

What specifically did he say? Any load factors he cited?

I did take the flight recently and it was packed both ways.

LHRFlyer · Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:39 am

ADrum23 wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Any indications of when it could be increased to daily and possibly upgauged to a 789?

Nothing was said about aircraft or frequency changes, but Willie Walsh was clearly very enthusiastic about its performance.

What specifically did he say? Any load factors he cited?

I did take the flight recently and it was packed both ways.

Nothing more was said, I'm afraid.

Bluegrass60 · Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:12 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
I suspect WN will slowiy move flights from ATL to BNA. There aren't a lot of destinations southbound that aren't flown from both airports. I don't mind ATL, but if I had a choice for a transfer it'd be BNA any day. I think WN is looking for O&D out of Atlanta.

Agreed. WN needs to focus on making BNA their flagship station in the southeast. It makes no sense trying to build up ATL because of the humongous DL hub. I would maintain what they have at ATL, but focus all future growth (especially in connections) in the southeast at BNA.

I believe the expansion is slowly but surely happening.

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

Jshank83 · Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:50 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Agreed. WN needs to focus on making BNA their flagship station in the southeast. It makes no sense trying to build up ATL because of the humongous DL hub. I would maintain what they have at ATL, but focus all future growth (especially in connections) in the southeast at BNA.

I believe the expansion is slowly but surely happening.

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

LAX772LR · Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:37 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
MSY has had the route longer so it has had more time to mature and they have a better handle on demand. Nashville still needs to establish things. I would guess next year it would be 5x over winter (or more).

MSY had 5x winter during their first year, so idk what is going on.

Several factors:
(1) The newness of the flight, (2) MSY being a slightly larger market (based on the older Brookings/Sabre studies), and (3) perhaps most importantly of all... the fleet turmoil that BA is going through due to the RR debacle.

Same thing for previous as well: AUS went daily within 3months. MSY is in its 17th month and still 5xWk.

The latter currently has 92% loads on the outbound, 85% overall month, and rarely a standard coach seat below $2200 within 2wks-- so guessing fleet has a lot to do with that, as it will for BNA.

BA is leasing aircraft from QR to cover some routes while 789s are down, and temporarily cancelling large swaths of SJC and NRT flights to accommodate. No surprise that they aren't adding frequencies; especially since most of the new widebodies that they've been taking, are directly replacing others that are retiring.

EvanWSFO · Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:58 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Agreed. WN needs to focus on making BNA their flagship station in the southeast. It makes no sense trying to build up ATL because of the humongous DL hub. I would maintain what they have at ATL, but focus all future growth (especially in connections) in the southeast at BNA.

I believe the expansion is slowly but surely happening.

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

It doesn't really make sense for WN to build up another city in the southeast to the size of ATL or BNA. WN has been cautious in it's BNA expansion, but there are some destinations and frequencies that could be added. As well, like it or not, WN is a hub and spoke carrier in many ways. I've seen 100's of people get off flights and move to another gate for a transfer at BNA. Just because they choose not use the word hub, it doesn't mean they don't do it to some extent..

TYSflyer · Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:20 am

More A321s for BNA. AA has loaded the early morning departure to LAX as an A321 in their schedule load for November last night.

HeyHey · Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:26 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
ADrum23 wrote:

Any indications of when it could be increased to daily and possibly upgauged to a 789?

Nothing was said about aircraft or frequency changes, but Willie Walsh was clearly very enthusiastic about its performance.

What specifically did he say? Any load factors he cited?

I did take the flight recently and it was packed both ways.

Here are the quotes as taken from the earnings call transcript:

QUOTE 1 from opening statements by Willie Walsh speaking of the growth of the TATL offerings:
"We’re growing on our networks, and 10% growth in ASK on the transatlantic in the second quarter. Half of that was in Europe, which are performing incredibly well. Nashville, it is up and coming in terms of its performance. British Airways launched in Philadelphia and Seattle, and are already looking and making Seattle to a daily service."

Quote 2 in response to a questions from an analyst:
Question from Neil Glynn from Credit Suisse: "The first one, just more looking for a bit more color on the transatlantic underlying performance."

Part 1 answer from Willie Walsh:
"On the transatlantic, you’re right to say the transatlantic was – for British Airways was better. Performance for BA – and don’t forget, BA had to move a few routes as well. Fair to say Nashville was much stronger than we had expected they were going to be. If you want to comment to that."

Part 2 answer from unidentified staffer:
"Precisely that. For a brand new route, perhaps because of the strength of the U.S. market this year, the start-up of Nashville as a brand new route was really unexpected."

---------------------------------------------------

I suspect we are fighting mostly against aircraft availability as the primary barrier to daily service. While we haven't seen any official numbers, it sounds like Nashville is going to be >90% for load factors. Of course, that's somewhat expected around BA. Their July 2018 Load Factor for the company was 87.1%, so in light of that a LF of 90% or 92% isn't going to be that impressive compared to other routes. Of course we don't know what the yields are which are more important anyway.

Reading through the transcript, I get the sense that they have found a sweet spot with the TATL market and specifically the unserved secondary US markets to LHR. They have swooped in and become the sole TATL provider to places like BNA, MSY, and AUS which has become lucrative for them. I would wager that they will continue to expand into markets like these.

Bluegrass60 · Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:51 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

I believe the expansion is slowly but surely happening.

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

Jshank83 · Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:05 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

All those are too small for a focus city, in my opinion. You have to have decent O&D to start with (like the cities that already are "focus" cities). None have very many Southwest flights right now to build from. Southwest is more likely to just add more flights to the already mentioned bigger stations than it will ramp up any of those cities to 80+ flights a day. None of them even have 20 flights a day. RIC has 3 flights a day to 1 city. You need to probably get closer to a 2M metro or be a huge tourist location.

Lexy · Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:06 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"I agree with posters who say WN is focusing on O&D at ATL. I disagree with posters who suggest WN should increase BNA operations. WN is not a hub/spoke airline. It is a focus city operator. Focus cities like BNA have lots of connections and strong O&D. Over time perhaps WN grows to 140 departures...but I think that will be incremental over many years. In meantime, would look to WN to select another current station in the SE from which to begin focus.

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

None of those cities have the O&D to make a WN focus city work. None.

ADrum23 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:18 am

HeyHey wrote:
I suspect we are fighting mostly against aircraft availability as the primary barrier to daily service. While we haven't seen any official numbers, it sounds like Nashville is going to be >90% for load factors. Of course, that's somewhat expected around BA. Their July 2018 Load Factor for the company was 87.1%, so in light of that a LF of 90% or 92% isn't going to be that impressive compared to other routes. Of course we don't know what the yields are which are more important anyway.

Reading through the transcript, I get the sense that they have found a sweet spot with the TATL market and specifically the unserved secondary US markets to LHR. They have swooped in and become the sole TATL provider to places like BNA, MSY, and AUS which has become lucrative for them. I would wager that they will continue to expand into markets like these.

Like I've said, based on what I've seen/heard (both in flying the flight and the preliminary load factors), I believe demand is there for daily flights. I'm not sure why additional aircraft would be needed to expand the service to daily, but they know more than I. I'm interested to know how J is doing and seeing if the potential is there for a 789 upgauge in the future (once the RR engine issues are figured out).

I agree both BA and DL has found a sweet spot with TATL from mid-sized markets, being often times the sole operator. But how many more markets will they realistically expand into? I have to think at some point the market becomes saturated to the point where they run out of mid-sized cities to add. The only other BA city I could see is STL. Then again, PIT caught everyone off guard so who knows?

Also, in markets like AUS, I'll be interested to see what happens to the BA LF's when another carrier inevitably jumps on daily year-round TATL, like DL is rumored to do with AMS.

EvanWSFO · Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:26 am

QUOTE 1 from opening statements by Willie Walsh speaking of the growth of the TATL offerings:
"We’re growing on our networks, and 10% growth in ASK on the transatlantic in the second quarter. Half of that was in Europe, which are performing incredibly well. Nashville, it is up and coming in terms of its performance. British Airways launched in Philadelphia and Seattle, and are already looking and making Seattle to a daily service."

Am I missing something here? Re: the comments about PHL and SEA?

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:17 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

All those are too small for a focus city, in my opinion. You have to have decent O&D to start with (like the cities that already are "focus" cities). None have very many Southwest flights right now to build from. Southwest is more likely to just add more flights to the already mentioned bigger stations than it will ramp up any of those cities to 80+ flights a day. None of them even have 20 flights a day. RIC has 3 flights a day to 1 city. You need to probably get closer to a 2M metro or be a huge tourist location.

"JAX and SDF are similar in size as BNA when WN began building up. They also have growing tourism"

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:18 pm

Lexy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

I agree about it being incremental increases at BNA (like any station) but I don't know if I agree about them making another focus station in the SE. They already have ATL/BNA/MCO/FLL and to some degree TPA. BWI/STL aren't all that far from SE. Where else would they add one? No place else makes much sense. CLT doesn't have room, RDU already is getting ramped up from other airlines. Everywhere else is too small.

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

None of those cities have the O&D to make a WN focus city work. None.

"SDF has @ 4M total pax....all of it is O&D"

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:20 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

None of those cities have the O&D to make a WN focus city work. None.

"SDF has @ 4M total pax....all of it is O&D; RIC has 4M total pax...all O&D; JAX has 5M+...all O&D"

Jshank83 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:14 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

None of those cities have the O&D to make a WN focus city work. None.

"SDF has @ 4M total pax....all of it is O&D"

More like 3.5 and BNA probably has over triple that. The furthest back stats I can find is that BNA had over 8 mil in 2002 which I assume is before WN started building it up too much, that is still over double what SDF has now.

But it looks like we are going to disagree on this so I am going to let it go. Get back to me when SDF is even up to 40 flights and we can talk.

EvanWSFO · Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:25 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

Everywhere else is too small? SE Metro's with > 1M people (without focus/hub) include: SDF, MEM, BHM, JAX, RIC, ORF

All those are too small for a focus city, in my opinion. You have to have decent O&D to start with (like the cities that already are "focus" cities). None have very many Southwest flights right now to build from. Southwest is more likely to just add more flights to the already mentioned bigger stations than it will ramp up any of those cities to 80+ flights a day. None of them even have 20 flights a day. RIC has 3 flights a day to 1 city. You need to probably get closer to a 2M metro or be a huge tourist location.

"JAX and SDF are similar in size as BNA when WN began building up. They also have growing tourism"

JAX has growing tourism? I have family there, so I fly it several times a year, usually on WN but occasionally DL. I've seen no appreciable increase in the pax. Nor those in the airport. That'a by far from a scientific survey, but I can list of 10 destinations in Florida very quickly to vacation i before JAX came up.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:44 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:

None of those cities have the O&D to make a WN focus city work. None.

"SDF has @ 4M total pax....all of it is O&D"

More like 3.5 and BNA probably has over triple that. The furthest back stats I can find is that BNA had over 8 mil in 2002 which I assume is before WN started building it up too much, that is still over double what SDF has now.

But it looks like we are going to disagree on this so I am going to let it go. Get back to me when SDF is even up to 40 flights and we can talk.

BNA numbers include a large number of connections as a result of WN Focus. AA de-hubbed BNA in 1996...the same year WN began building service. Here are WN's numbers for BNA
1995 - 882,706
1996 - 1,717,944
1997 - 2,424,490
1998 - 2,911,844
1999 - 3,545,989 .......2017 - 7,702,000

Lexy · Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:12 pm

SDF will not grow much larger than it currently is. Why? It's not a huge tourist draw, it's not a huge business market, and it's sandwiched between IND, STL, and BNA. BNA by itself generates leakage and erosion of the SDF marketshare due in part to the shear number of n/s destinations and frequency value added. I'm sure the same can be said for IND and it's proximity to SDF. Also, the national profile of the SDF market isn't near as high as IND and BNA. Brand awareness is crucial and Louisville has yet to really solidify that with both the tourism and business folks. As an aside, Louisville needs something more than the Derby. That's truly the only "nationally" relevant item of interest there for tourist. Everything else is more regional in it's interest.

The BNA WN numbers are likely above 8 million now. The airport alone is right at 15 million passengers and growing about a million a year.

HeyHey · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:31 pm

Last year someone posted the O&D numbers for BNA as well as several peer airports. I can't find that post or thread despite searching several different ways. IIRC it was in the 11-12 million range.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:36 pm

Lexy wrote:
SDF will not grow much larger than it currently is. Why? It's not a huge tourist draw, it's not a huge business market, and it's sandwiched between IND, STL, and BNA. BNA by itself generates leakage and erosion of the SDF marketshare due in part to the shear number of n/s destinations and frequency value added. I'm sure the same can be said for IND and it's proximity to SDF. Also, the national profile of the SDF market isn't near as high as IND and BNA. Brand awareness is crucial and Louisville has yet to really solidify that with both the tourism and business folks. As an aside, Louisville needs something more than the Derby. That's truly the only "nationally" relevant item of interest there for tourist. Everything else is more regional in it's interest.

The BNA WN numbers are likely above 8 million now. The airport alone is right at 15 million passengers and growing about a million a year.

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

Midwestindy · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:43 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
SDF will not grow much larger than it currently is. Why? It's not a huge tourist draw, it's not a huge business market, and it's sandwiched between IND, STL, and BNA. BNA by itself generates leakage and erosion of the SDF marketshare due in part to the shear number of n/s destinations and frequency value added. I'm sure the same can be said for IND and it's proximity to SDF. Also, the national profile of the SDF market isn't near as high as IND and BNA. Brand awareness is crucial and Louisville has yet to really solidify that with both the tourism and business folks. As an aside, Louisville needs something more than the Derby. That's truly the only "nationally" relevant item of interest there for tourist. Everything else is more regional in it's interest.

The BNA WN numbers are likely above 8 million now. The airport alone is right at 15 million passengers and growing about a million a year.

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

Lexy · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:46 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
SDF will not grow much larger than it currently is. Why? It's not a huge tourist draw, it's not a huge business market, and it's sandwiched between IND, STL, and BNA. BNA by itself generates leakage and erosion of the SDF marketshare due in part to the shear number of n/s destinations and frequency value added. I'm sure the same can be said for IND and it's proximity to SDF. Also, the national profile of the SDF market isn't near as high as IND and BNA. Brand awareness is crucial and Louisville has yet to really solidify that with both the tourism and business folks. As an aside, Louisville needs something more than the Derby. That's truly the only "nationally" relevant item of interest there for tourist. Everything else is more regional in it's interest.

The BNA WN numbers are likely above 8 million now. The airport alone is right at 15 million passengers and growing about a million a year.

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

There's a LOT to do here and around Nashville. The mountains are a couple hours away. The city is an international draw for tourist and business for a number of reasons. Music is only part of it. In January 2017, over 5,000 hotel rooms were under construction in Nashville. Nashville and Louisville aren't even in the same league anymore. As of May of 2018, over 15,000 hotel rooms are planned in Metro Nashville. Yes, 15,000.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2 ... 528638002/

SDF growth? Allegiant. The airport hovers around 3 million pax a year.

The numbers haven't slowed. They continue to set new passenger records each month.

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Lexy wrote:
SDF will not grow much larger than it currently is. Why? It's not a huge tourist draw, it's not a huge business market, and it's sandwiched between IND, STL, and BNA. BNA by itself generates leakage and erosion of the SDF marketshare due in part to the shear number of n/s destinations and frequency value added. I'm sure the same can be said for IND and it's proximity to SDF. Also, the national profile of the SDF market isn't near as high as IND and BNA. Brand awareness is crucial and Louisville has yet to really solidify that with both the tourism and business folks. As an aside, Louisville needs something more than the Derby. That's truly the only "nationally" relevant item of interest there for tourist. Everything else is more regional in it's interest.

The BNA WN numbers are likely above 8 million now. The airport alone is right at 15 million passengers and growing about a million a year.

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

Lexy · Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:58 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

Nashville's growth isn't slowing. That's a fact. Over 15,000 hotel rooms planned along with a number of high profile commercial projects underway downtown says otherwise. As to your statement about passenger numbers, that's pure conjecture on your part. Like I said, Louisville isn't in the same league. SDF can't even get service to the west coast for crying out loud.

southwest1675 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:15 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

Nashville was vibrant enough back then to attract a hub from a legacy carrier.

Midwestindy · Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:23 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:

"Actually SDF is growing >9% YTD.....Tourist draw...hmmm...20M+ tourists last year. Bourbon Trail. Urban Bourbon Trail. 2500 new hotel rooms under construction. $207M convention center redo. Record employment. Churchill Downs...Derby...Breeders Cup. Perhaps brand not as strong nationally as BNA or IND...but it is getting stronger. Business market is large. Aside from going honky tonking and the Grand Ole Opry....what does Nashville really offer?? What does Indy offer of national interest?. BNA numbers are slowing.....and will continue to slow unless WN adds more flights for connections...."

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

IND lost 1 of its 4 frequencies to the Bay Area, SDF doesn't even have 1 flight a week

BNA's growth isn't stopping

SDF is in the same realm of OMA, OKC, e.t.c not IND and BNA

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:29 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

Nashville was vibrant enough back then to attract a hub from a legacy carrier.

"SDF was also considered by AA....BNA got it because SDF did not have parallel runways at the time. In 2018, no carrier is looking for a new hub; they may be looking for new focus cities however."

Bluegrass60 · Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:33 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

"Business market is large"...... really?? compared to where? SDF doesn't even have service to BOS, LAX, SFO, SEA, e.t.c

What does Nashville offer? A business market that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a tourism market and a fast growing city
What does Indy offer? A business market with large corporate travel spenders, that can sustain multiple nonstop flights to all major US business market, in addition to a large convention market

"IND just lost AS service to SFO...Louisville has large corporations as well dude and the city is working to attract NS to BOS, LAX, SFO and SEA. Louisville also is a Tier One convention city...just like Indy and Nashville.

Louisville is larger and more vibrant today than Nashville was in the 90's. Nashville's growth is slowing and will continue to slow as cost of living grows and traffice gets worse. BNA traffic would be 40% less if WN did not operate a focus operation there.

IND lost 1 of its 4 frequencies to the Bay Area, SDF doesn't even have 1 flight a week

BNA's growth isn't stopping

SDF is in the same realm of OMA, OKC, e.t.c not IND and BNA

"SDF will have West Coast nonstops within the year....they will get them the same way IND and BNA has gotten some service...guarantees. BNA is growing and will continue to grow...but...double digit growth is not gonna happen UNLESS WN adds more focus for more connections. At least 40% of BNA traffic is CONNECTING

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