WN adding a frequency to LAX-PDX to 3x daily - https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... oct-1-2018

Continuing to increase pricing pressure on AS routes, before the cannonball to Hawaii later this year.

ucdtim17 wrote:

WN adding a frequency to LAX-PDX to 3x daily - https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... oct-1-2018

Continuing to increase pricing pressure on AS routes, before the cannonball to Hawaii later this year.

Welp, R.I.P. PDX-BNA hopes for the near future...

FA9295 wrote:

ucdtim17 wrote:

WN adding a frequency to LAX-PDX to 3x daily - https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... oct-1-2018

Continuing to increase pricing pressure on AS routes, before the cannonball to Hawaii later this year.

Welp, R.I.P. PDX-BNA hopes for the near future...

Doesn’t surprise me. Maybe in March announcement? But hey, got to have 18 nonstops to LAX.

Horizon is due to get 23 more E175s this year. That’s a lot of potential expansion, only a few are to replace Q400s. We’ll see how far they can push the range.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... n-lawsuit/

From the Indianapolis thread:
VX IND-SFO-61.9%; SFO-IND-56%
With a weak load factor like that, Alaska could shift this VX A320 to PDX-BNA. Roughly the same distance. Either compete with UA or take an inaugural monopoly route possibly with incentives.

Hawaiian is using A330-200 OGG-PDX yesterday and PDX-OGG today instead of the new A321.

jbpdx wrote:

Hawaiian is using A330-200 OGG-PDX yesterday and PDX-OGG today instead of the new A321.

PDX-OGG has been A330 on the 17th, 15th, and 13th, and B763 on the 11th and 9th. If FR24 is correct it will be A330 on the 19th and 21st as well. Looking at FR24 N204HA has been out of service for almost 10 days. When are more A321s coming online for HA?

ooslc wrote:

Looking at FR24 N204HA has been out of service for almost 10 days. When are more A321s coming online for HA?

N204HA Shows in the air right now between HNL and OGG.

ooslc wrote:

When are more A321s coming online for HA?

Only 2 are in service. 16 more are due for delivery through 2020. They also have 6 A330-800neos ordered for delivery starting in 2019.

FlightView now shows Hawaiian using the 294-seat A330 PDX-Maui thru the rest of February. Seat maps unavailable.

Sorry this is late, I had to go skiing today it was snowing so much & great pow for the masses to enjoy:

AA DFW-PDX JUL 4>5

YOY comparison for B6:
B6 ANC-PDX SEP 0.3>0.1 - looks like they are ending the season earlier, the last few weeks usually are $59 o/w

G4 EUG-IWA MAR 0.4>0 APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
G4 LAX-MFR SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3

YOY comparison for WN:
WN AUS-PDX AUG 0.4>0.2
WN BWI-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN HOU-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN LAX-PDX AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3
WN PDX-SAN JUL 2>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3
WN PDX-SJC JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>5
WN PDX-SMF SEP 6>5

Y4 PDX-GDL JUN 0.6>0.7 JUL 0.5>0.7 - They keep adding more weekly flights

RWA380 wrote:

G4 EUG-IWA MAR 0.4>0 APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0

I thought Allegiant pulled out of Ivanovo when Putin was in high school.

RWA380 wrote:

Sorry this is late, I had to go skiing today it was snowing so much & great pow for the masses to enjoy:

AA DFW-PDX JUL 4>5

YOY comparison for B6:
B6 ANC-PDX SEP 0.3>0.1 - looks like they are ending the season earlier, the last few weeks usually are $59 o/w

G4 EUG-IWA MAR 0.4>0 APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0
G4 LAX-MFR SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0.3

YOY comparison for WN:
WN AUS-PDX AUG 0.4>0.2
WN BWI-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN HOU-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN LAX-PDX AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3
WN PDX-SAN JUL 2>3 AUG 1.9>3 SEP 1.8>3
WN PDX-SJC JUL 5>6 AUG 4>6 SEP 4>5
WN PDX-SMF SEP 6>5

Y4 PDX-GDL JUN 0.6>0.7 JUL 0.5>0.7 - They keep adding more weekly flights

I hope B6 keeps that PDX-ANC route around long term. I know a lot of people that use it in the summer and love the low fares to get in and out of AK. B6 seems to shorten its ANC season a little bit every year. Wasn’t too long ago they were hinting at year-round ANC service and kicking some tires at FAI. Times change...

Does anyone know anything about a cargo carrier called Air 21? It appears to be flying to PDX three days a week with a RFD-PDX-OAK routing............

lhpdx wrote:

Does anyone know anything about a cargo carrier called Air 21? It appears to be flying to PDX three days a week with a RFD-PDX-OAK routing............

Found the flightaware link: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CSB ... /KPDX/KOAK

Never heard of 21 Air before...

After google-ing it, it looks like they operate a couple Boeing 767-200 freighters that look something like this:

jplatts wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

YOY comparison for WN:
WN AUS-PDX AUG 0.4>0.2
WN BWI-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN HOU-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2

WN will be running daily seasonal nonstop service to PDX from HOU between April 8th and August 6th.
WN will be running seasonal nonstop service to PDX from AUS on weekdays and Sundays between June 7th and August 6th.
WN will be running daily seasonal nonstop service to PDX from BWI between June 7th and August 6th.

The YOY comparison is not correct for these routes since WN has seasonal nonstop service to AUS, BWI, and HOU from PDX on weekdays and Sundays. In addition, WN also operates BWI-PDX and HOU-PDX seasonal nonstop service on Saturdays.

Since WN is going ro end their season Aug 6th & it ia less than daily, the aggregate average for the month of August is correct, it's only operating less than a week of an entire month.

jplatts wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

YOY comparison for WN:
WN AUS-PDX AUG 0.4>0.2
WN BWI-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2
WN HOU-PDX AUG 0.5>0.2

WN will be running daily seasonal nonstop service to PDX from HOU between April 8th and August 6th.
WN will be running seasonal nonstop service to PDX from AUS on weekdays and Sundays between June 7th and August 6th.
WN will be running daily seasonal nonstop service to PDX from BWI between June 7th and August 6th.

The YOY comparison is not correct for these routes since WN has seasonal nonstop service to AUS, BWI, and HOU from PDX on weekdays and Sundays. In addition, WN also operates BWI-PDX and HOU-PDX seasonal nonstop service on Saturdays.

Since WN is going ro end their season Aug 6th & it ia less than daily, the aggregate average for the month of August is correct, it's only operating less than a week of an entire month. They are ending the season earlier than last year.

FA9295 wrote:

lhpdx wrote:

Does anyone know anything about a cargo carrier called Air 21? It appears to be flying to PDX three days a week with a RFD-PDX-OAK routing............

Found the flightaware link: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CSB ... /KPDX/KOAK

Never heard of 21 Air before...

After google-ing it, it looks like they operate a couple Boeing 767-200 freighters that look something like this:

Thanks for the response FA9295!! To all PDX spotters, UPS 747-800 is on it's way to PDX!!

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS2998

FA9295 wrote:

lhpdx wrote:

Does anyone know anything about a cargo carrier called Air 21? It appears to be flying to PDX three days a week with a RFD-PDX-OAK routing............

Found the flightaware link: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CSB ... /KPDX/KOAK

Never heard of 21 Air before...

After google-ing it, it looks like they operate a couple Boeing 767-200 freighters that look something like this:

I wonder if Air21 is filling in for Amazon at PDX? Either way, it's nice seeing some additional cargo carries at the airport......

The routing I've seen thus far for 21 Air looks like Chicago/Rockford-Portland-Oakland...and only on certain days. I've yet to really figure out their schedule.

lhpdx wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

lhpdx wrote:

Does anyone know anything about a cargo carrier called Air 21? It appears to be flying to PDX three days a week with a RFD-PDX-OAK routing............

Found the flightaware link: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CSB ... /KPDX/KOAK

Never heard of 21 Air before...

After google-ing it, it looks like they operate a couple Boeing 767-200 freighters that look something like this:

Thanks for the response FA9295!! To all PDX spotters, UPS 747-800 is on it's way to PDX!!

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UPS2998

Yep. UPS almost always routes their Friday SDF-ANC via PDX, but it is usually a MD11. Good to see the upgauge.

Saw this on the news last night. No injuries.

http://www.kgw.com/mobile/article/news/ ... -523340408

January 2018 Passenger Statistics
https://popcdn.azureedge.net/pdfs/Jan2018webstats.pdf

up 2.9% to 1,323,220

BREAKING:

Sun Country adds summer seasonal 3x weekly PDX-MCO service. Sources are below:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business ... story.html
https://www.suncountry.com/Book/Deals/F ... outes.html

Flight details:

Flights will run three times a week: Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays.
Flights will operate from June 14 to August 19.

PDX-MCO: (5 hours, 15 minutes)
Depart: 10:30 AM
Arrival: 6:45 PM

MCO-PDX: (5 hours, 40 minutes)
Departure: 7:55 PM
Arrival: 10:35 PM

Also currently being discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1387901

After last weeks snub, we got some interesting things this week:

*AA CLT-PDX JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
*AA ORD-PDX JUN 1.2>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3 NOV 1.0>3

*AS PDX-STL MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 - this looks gone for good!
AS SEA-PDX JUN 26>27 JUL 26>27 AUG 26>27

RWA380 wrote:

After last weeks snub, we got some interesting things this week:

*AA CLT-PDX JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
*AA ORD-PDX JUN 1.2>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3 NOV 1.0>3

*AS PDX-STL MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 - this looks gone for good!
AS SEA-PDX JUN 26>27 JUL 26>27 AUG 26>27

I had no idea that the PDX-STL route was performing so poorly...

lhpdx wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

After last weeks snub, we got some interesting things this week:

*AA CLT-PDX JUL 1.0>1.9 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2
AA DFW-PDX SEP 4>5 OCT 4>5 NOV 4>5
*AA ORD-PDX JUN 1.2>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3 SEP 1.0>3 OCT 1.0>3 NOV 1.0>3

*AS PDX-STL MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0 - this looks gone for good!
AS SEA-PDX JUN 26>27 JUL 26>27 AUG 26>27

I had no idea that the PDX-STL route was performing so poorly... :snakehead:

It had mid 80s-90% LFs for every month it ran last year except Jan/Feb. I know that isn't everything but I have to think there is something else going on. Bringing it back for mid-march to mid-may and not extending it through the best summer months doesn't make much sense. Maybe the whole pilot issue is still messing with things. They also cut SFO-DEN. I was surprised they brought back PDX-MCI over a month later than PDX-STL (which made me think STL was doing better) but then didn't make changes to the MCI route (for now). Maybe they need that plane for a couple shorter routes since STL is long?

This didn't copy perfectly from my spreadsheet but it give you an idea. I don't have combined numbers but this is each way and you can just take the average between the two each month.

seats Passengers Airline city1 city2 month LF%
1900 1310 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 1 0.6894736842
1824 1303 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 2 0.7143640351
2052 1760 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 3 0.8576998051
2280 2095 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 4 0.9188596491
2356 2089 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 5 0.886672326
2356 1983 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 6 0.8416808149
2280 1941 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 7 0.8513157895
1900 1561 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 8 0.8215789474
2280 1833 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 9 0.8039473684
2432 2127 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 10 0.8745888158
1976 1765 Alaska Airlines STL PDX 11 0.8932186235

PDX-STL

1976 1465 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 1 0.7413967611
1824 1401 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 2 0.7680921053
2204 1939 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 3 0.8797640653
2280 2042 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 4 0.8956140351
2356 2001 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 5 0.8493208829
2280 1922 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 6 0.8429824561
2280 2005 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 7 0.8793859649
1900 1684 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 8 0.8863157895
2280 1996 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 9 0.8754385965
2432 2164 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 10 0.8898026316
1976 1812 Alaska Airlines PDX STL 11 0.9170040486

Noticed DL 1412 red eye HNL-PDX arrived this morning at about 5:30a on a 739, then turned to ATL. Didn’t know they flew this route outside of a couple of weeks during the holidays. Is this new? Spring break scheduling?

pdxav8r wrote:

Noticed DL 1412 red eye HNL-PDX arrived this morning at about 5:30a on a 739, then turned to ATL. Didn’t know they flew this route outside of a couple of weeks during the holidays. Is this new? Spring break scheduling?

This year I'm pretty sure it was daily through the christmas season then SAT only until the end of this month.

*AS PDX-STL MAY 1.0>0.6 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0 SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.0>0

-WN do much better on PDX-STL route.
-OO would do better if they return.
-QX is hurting.

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

jbpdx wrote:

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

Looks like EUG is getting flights to SAN on Allegiant!

flyoregon wrote:

Looks like EUG is getting flights to SAN on Allegiant!

I am also glad for Eugene.

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.

TransWorldOne wrote:

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

TransWorldOne wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

So the state had to shell out a good amount of money to fly her to HKG only for them to be "kind and gracious" and to basically say "no." I'm sure there's more to the story than that, but why would she tell a cabin stranger?

flyoregon wrote:

So the state had to shell out a good amount of money to fly her to HKG only for them to be "kind and gracious" and to basically say "no." I'm sure there's more to the story than that, but why would she tell a cabin stranger?

I think that trip focused specifically on trade/exports/cargo. The port would pitch passenger service, although port officials might have gone on that trip. If Cathay can handle the cargo now being carried on the 747 on an A330 etc. with passengers, seems it would be cost effective to handle it that way.

flyoregon wrote:

Looks like EUG is getting flights to SAN on Allegiant!

Nice to hear! I have heard a couple of A.netters over the last few months wonder if AS was thinking about EUG-SAN -- thinking they ought to be! -- so now we find out that someone has been, and that someone moved on it. The G4 service appears to twice a week (Th & Su) and begins May 17.

That being said, I never know from month-to-month which routes G4 is serving, what with major league seasonality plus their habit of dropping routes easily and often. It will be great to have nonstop service to a non-PDX Oregon airport, no matter how long it lasts! (And I don't think this is really a seasonal route; I would think this market could very definitely run year-round. We'll see

bb

flyoregon wrote:

TransWorldOne wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

So the state had to shell out a good amount of money to fly her to HKG only for them to be "kind and gracious" and to basically say "no." I'm sure there's more to the story than that, but why would she tell a cabin stranger?

I agree. When asked that question, she shot a look at one of her colleagues before answering. It was almost as if she was taken aback by my inquiry. Her response was vague because, as you said, why would she spill any beans to a random stranger? But her tone certainly didn't leave me with any hope or indication that we will see passenger flights to HKG any time soon.

jbpdx wrote:

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

65,521 divided by 365 comes out to be around 180 pax per day.

If Hainan were to launch a daily PEK-PDX route, the current demand would fill up roughly 85% of the seats on a Boeing 787-8 (which has 213 total seats).

If Air China were to launch a daily PEK-PDX route, the current demand would fill up roughly 76% of the seats on an Airbus A330-200 (which has 237 total seats).

Of course, the route probably wouldn't operate daily at first...

jbpdx wrote:

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.

TransWorldOne wrote:

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

pdxav8r wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.

TransWorldOne wrote:

I sat next to Governor Kate Brown a couple months ago in Delta One coming from NRT. She was on her way back from HKG after meeting with Cathay Pacific reps. I asked her about the possibility of nonstop passenger flights to HKG and her response was something like, "they were very kind and gracious, but we don't know that they're ready to start passenger flights yet."

I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

FA9295 wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

anna.aero posted an article today on the top 40 cities worldwide without a nonstop to China. Portland is No. 2 among US cities with 65,521 passengers/year. Orlando is ahead slightly with 71,364. I still think the most likely scenario for PDX will be Cathay Pacific to HKG, probably to be announced soon.

http://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/chinese ... 2010-2017/

65,521 divided by 365 comes out to be around 180 pax per day.

If Hainan were to launch a daily PEK-PDX route, the current demand would fill up roughly 85% of the seats on a Boeing 787-8 (which has 213 total seats).

If Air China were to launch a daily PEK-PDX route, the current demand would fill up roughly 76% of the seats on an Airbus A330-200 (which has 237 total seats).

Of course, the route probably wouldn't operate daily at first...

On paper, you are probably correct. However it is difficult to determine the numbers that would be derived from market stimulation of said route, less defections based on airline loyalty. I’m sure airlines have those numbers calculated.

TransWorldOne wrote:

pdxav8r wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.



I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

I almost wonder if Hainan would be willing to start both PEK-PDX and PVG-PDX, where each would only be operated two or three times a week instead of just one of those routes daily. Some food for thought.

Also, the only reason that HKG-PDX is being mentioned in the first place is because of CX's cargo operations at PDX.

TransWorldOne wrote:

pdxav8r wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.



I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

If one of the two main Japanese airlines were to start a daily NRT-PDX, my money would be on Japan Airlines instead of ANA since ANA already operates a daily NRT-SEA flight.

FA9295 wrote:

TransWorldOne wrote:

pdxav8r wrote:

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

If one of the two main Japanese airlines were to start a daily NRT-PDX, my money would be on Japan Airlines instead of ANA since ANA already operates a daily NRT-SEA flight.

That, and the AS connection. Agreed. Don’t see ANA, with little feed on the PDX side.

TransWorldOne wrote:

pdxav8r wrote:

jbpdx wrote:

More on Cathay Pacific PDX-HKG:
cargo was up 135% in January compared with January 2017, to 495 tons.



I doubt Brown would spill any beans but at least she didn’t say they said no way. It would be passenger/cargo in lieu of the 747. SEA-China/Asia flights would take a hit to their loads with this route.

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

Everyone is so certain that PDX-NRT is in jeopardy with DL, which could very well be the case. Yet DL still continues to serve it. There has to be good O&D, or else DL/KE would have made the switch. Could be that corporate contracts are still intact, and provide enough revenue. The boards have been all over DL leaving NRT and lack of connectivity with many cities, yet DL still flies the route. Something has to be working for them. Or they are reluctant to let another carrier suck up their route/profit. This route has supposedly been on the chopping block for a long time, yet they are still serving it. That tells you something.

Didn't DL serve PDX-HKG in the days of the mini-hub at PDX?

pdxav8r wrote:

TransWorldOne wrote:

pdxav8r wrote:

Not sure I get why Cathay cares about taking away from SEA/Asia flights, unless SEA is on their short list. They don’t serve SEA, so they would hope to draw away from SEA. That being said, I’m doubtful the first PDX/China flight would be to HKG. Hopeful for it, but still doubtful. Beijing seems to be the main entry market to/from the US. If someone starts a PDX route, my money is on Beijing.

PDX-PEK seems far more likely than PDX-HKG. The latter is a very long and thin route. And I still remain skeptical that CX would launch PDX before SEA. My money is on Hainan starting PDX-PEK within the next year or two. And in the broader conversation of PDX TPAC, I expect DL to switch from NRT to ICN within the same timeframe. This, of course, would mean no service to Japan from PDX but I don't think that will last for long as a Japanese carrier would likely pick up the route. Ultimately, I expect PDX to have one flight to China (PEK), one flight to Korea (ICN), and one flight to Japan (NRT).

Everyone is so certain that PDX-NRT is in jeopardy with DL, which could very well be the case. Yet DL still continues to serve it. There has to be good O&D, or else DL/KE would have made the switch. Could be that corporate contracts are still intact, and provide enough revenue. The boards have been all over DL leaving NRT and lack of connectivity with many cities, yet DL still flies the route. Something has to be working for them. Or they are reluctant to let another carrier suck up their route/profit. This route has supposedly been on the chopping block for a long time, yet they are still serving it. That tells you something.

Well, we have seen many destinations from NRT that were supposedly "holding their own" be cut within the last several months. PDX-NRT is a peculiar route. And even if it does marginally well, I can't imagine that it is printing money especially given the decreased connectivity at NRT and the dissolution of the DL agreement with Alaska. To me it is only a matter of time before the route gets axed. DL doesn't seem too keen on operating point to point international routes with no hub feed on either end. PDX-ICN would be a much more natural fit within the DL/KE network once the JV gets off the ground.

DL im sure does well on the PDX-NRT flights. They are mostly full - I know doesn’t equate to profit but DL does not keep money losing routes along for long..with a few exceptions. PDX does not seem like the exception to me.