Boston aviation - 2018

iyerhari · Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:03 pm

Just got this info from Massport:

Delta has just moved into the number 2 spot over American (passengers count) for March 2018. This should be more prevalent as the year moves on. I expect later in the Year for Delta to have number 2 spot in the YTD totals as well.

They refuse the divulge the exact specifics

I believe it is just a matter of time when the story is going to get replayed in BOS similar to JFK.

1. At JFK, in the year 2000, AA was ranked 1 and B6 was ranked a poor 6.
2. In 2001, B6 became ranked 1 and AA became 2.
3. From 2003 onwards, AA has always been a poor 3 with DL number 1, B6 at number 2.

airbazar · Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:16 pm

iyerhari wrote:
Just got this info from Massport:

Delta has just moved into the number 2 spot over American (passengers count) for March 2018. This should be more prevalent as the year moves on. I expect later in the Year for Delta to have number 2 spot in the YTD totals as well.

They refuse the divulge the exact specifics

I believe it is just a matter of time when the story is going to get replayed in BOS similar to JFK.

1. At JFK, in the year 2000, AA was ranked 1 and B6 was ranked a poor 6.
2. In 2001, B6 became ranked 1 and AA became 2.
3. From 2003 onwards, AA has always been a poor 3 with DL number 1, B6 at number 2.

I'm not sure that DL will ever be at #1 in BOS. They were able to become #1 in JFK because they operate a large hub there. I don't see DL adding that many more intl routes out of BOS.

iyerhari · Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:28 pm

airbazar wrote:
I'm not sure that DL will ever be at #1 in BOS. They were able to become #1 in JFK because they operate a large hub there. I don't see DL adding that many more intl routes out of BOS.

They are getting all of Terminal A and I am sure Massport wouldn't be all that happy to invest millions of dollars to have DL have it's way. DL is looking energized and confident to take on AA first and then take on B6. If DL could trump (no pun intended here please) AA in two years time, the difference is not all that much with B6. June-2019 is also not all that far when they have Terminal A - Massport once told me that DL is fully committed at BOS and they have all intentions to be the carrier of choice in BOS - the latter half of the year will throw the light on what routes DL intends to launch from BOS.

airbazar · Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:00 pm

iyerhari wrote:
airbazar wrote:
I'm not sure that DL will ever be at #1 in BOS. They were able to become #1 in JFK because they operate a large hub there. I don't see DL adding that many more intl routes out of BOS.

They are getting all of Terminal A and I am sure Massport wouldn't be all that happy to invest millions of dollars to have DL have it's way. DL is looking energized and confident to take on AA first and then take on B6.

Fully committed doesn't necessarily mean being the largest. All of terminal A is still less than all of terminal C. And unlike AA, B6 is also growing. And B6's international partners are also growing whereas AF and AZ are not. From a physical space point of view alone, DL just doesn't have the infrastructure to be larger than B6. Of course B6 could stagnate. But gate for gate, B6 has more gates than DL and as long as DL stays at A and B6 stays at C, that's not going to change.

iyerhari · Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:51 pm

airbazar wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
airbazar wrote:
I'm not sure that DL will ever be at #1 in BOS. They were able to become #1 in JFK because they operate a large hub there. I don't see DL adding that many more intl routes out of BOS.

They are getting all of Terminal A and I am sure Massport wouldn't be all that happy to invest millions of dollars to have DL have it's way. DL is looking energized and confident to take on AA first and then take on B6.

Fully committed doesn't necessarily mean being the largest. All of terminal A is still less than all of terminal C. And unlike AA, B6 is also growing. And B6's international partners are also growing whereas AF and AZ are not. From a physical space point of view alone, DL just doesn't have the infrastructure to be larger than B6. Of course B6 could stagnate. But gate for gate, B6 has more gates than DL and as long as DL stays at A and B6 stays at C, that's not going to change.

Total terminal A gates = 22 (2 gates with WS although I believe they are not full day but will not give them to DL.
Total DL gates after June-2019 = 20

Total Terminal C gates = 28 - I believe Cape Air takes 2 gates although I do not remember the exact gate number. TAP also uses one gate although not full day.

B6 exclusive gates in Terminal C if I take out the 3 gates = 25

Let me know if my math is correct. Nevertheless, you are correct - B6 owns more gates than DL

iyerhari · Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:51 pm

VS4ever can validate this but had some time between meetings today to check the T-100 report.
DL BOS-SFO LF was 82.43% on the outbound and 84.75% in the inbound. That's a respectable LF for an airline that is almost completely dependent on O&D.

B757rocket · Fri Apr 20, 2018 2:39 pm

Hello,
I want to clear two things up about Delta and Terminal A.

1.) WestJet sublets one gate only at Terminal A, A-1, and can use an alternate gate if needed. Delta utilizes gate A-1 when WestJet is not. WestJet is dropping their BOS-YUL route, which leaves them with 4 flights. Delta will take full advantage of turning planes at gate A-1. You can bang out a lot of 76 seater RJ’s between WestJet.

2.) BOS-SFO has been double daily as of this week, barring Saturdays. It’s a very healthy route for Delta and the other carriers.

tphuang · Fri Apr 20, 2018 3:10 pm

BOS-SFO LF from Q4 Including both directions and all equipments used
Carrier Boarded AvailableSeats LF
VX 58357 72281 80.74%
DL 30058 40760 73.74%
UA 169360 191562 88.41%
B6 88590 110028 80.52%

From January
BOSSFO
VX 12834 16391 78.30%
DL 6054 10075 60.09%
UA 40702 49917 81.54%
B6 30070 38796 77.51%

And take this for what you will, but this is the average fare I got for Q4 on BOS-SFO based on the raw data from BTS domestic fare data for individual carriers.
DL 294.26
B6 312.57
VX 274.34
UA 358.15
multiply by LF (again not factoring in award ticket or connection traffic or any other revenue source)
DL 217
B6 251.75
VX 221.49
UA 316.64

VS4ever · Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:30 pm

iyerhari wrote:
airbazar wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
They are getting all of Terminal A and I am sure Massport wouldn't be all that happy to invest millions of dollars to have DL have it's way. DL is looking energized and confident to take on AA first and then take on B6.

Fully committed doesn't necessarily mean being the largest. All of terminal A is still less than all of terminal C. And unlike AA, B6 is also growing. And B6's international partners are also growing whereas AF and AZ are not. From a physical space point of view alone, DL just doesn't have the infrastructure to be larger than B6. Of course B6 could stagnate. But gate for gate, B6 has more gates than DL and as long as DL stays at A and B6 stays at C, that's not going to change.

Total terminal A gates = 22 (2 gates with WS although I believe they are not full day but will not give them to DL.
Total DL gates after June-2019 = 20

Total Terminal C gates = 28 - I believe Cape Air takes 2 gates although I do not remember the exact gate number. TAP also uses one gate although not full day.

B6 exclusive gates in Terminal C if I take out the 3 gates = 25

Let me know if my math is correct. Nevertheless, you are correct - B6 owns more gates than DL

Not quite right on C.

Total gates 27,
C8-10 = 3
C11-C21 (no C13) = 10
C25- C36 (no C35) = 11
C40-C42 = 3
Total = 27

C27 = Cape Air (RON for B6 also uses this gate for early departure)
C40-C42 = currently SY and AS/VX - will transition to Terminal B once refurbs.
C17 = used by TAP for departure
C20/C21 = used by EI for arrival/departures.

The plan is to add 2 more gates between C19 and C20 and then C43 in the B to C connector project.

Once the move takes place. B6 will have access to 29 gates, with the above pieces continuing except for 40-42 not being SY and AS any more

airbazar · Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:12 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Once the move takes place. B6 will have access to 29 gates, with the above pieces continuing except for 40-42 not being SY and AS any more

Plus the gates they already use in terminal E (E1-E3). Those gates have pretty much become B6's international arrival gates and during the day they also have departures from there. But basically my point was that both DL and B6 are growing and B6 has more space to grow than DL does. So everything else being equal, I don't see DL becoming larger than B6 at BOS.

adamh8297 · Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:45 pm

iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever can validate this but had some time between meetings today to check the T-100 report.
DL BOS-SFO LF was 82.43% on the outbound and 84.75% in the inbound. That's a respectable LF for an airline that is almost completely dependent on O&D.

I looked at the international numbers and was impressed by CM and TP's performance. We should consider that CM only ran BOS-PTY 5 weekly a couple of years ago.
EK and TK did ok.. October is weak for ME3 but QR was a disaster loadwise below 60%.

Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

hinckley · Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:56 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

There's a pretty strong historical and cultural connection between Halifax and Boston. Much more so than Montreal and Boston. For many, many years, BOS was the only international destination from YHZ.

iyerhari · Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:07 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever can validate this but had some time between meetings today to check the T-100 report.
DL BOS-SFO LF was 82.43% on the outbound and 84.75% in the inbound. That's a respectable LF for an airline that is almost completely dependent on O&D.

I looked at the international numbers and was impressed by CM and TP's performance. We should consider that CM only ran BOS-PTY 5 weekly a couple of years ago.
EK and TK did ok.. October is weak for ME3 but QR was a disaster loadwise below 60%.

Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

I agree with you. I checked the LFs for PHL on QR and they do not good either. EK has some terrible months in Jan and Feb but they have some excellent times in peak season starting April through August. I do not know how QR is still operating the flight and which station in the States is doing good for them.

VS4ever · Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:12 pm

iyerhari wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever can validate this but had some time between meetings today to check the T-100 report.
DL BOS-SFO LF was 82.43% on the outbound and 84.75% in the inbound. That's a respectable LF for an airline that is almost completely dependent on O&D.

I looked at the international numbers and was impressed by CM and TP's performance. We should consider that CM only ran BOS-PTY 5 weekly a couple of years ago.
EK and TK did ok.. October is weak for ME3 but QR was a disaster loadwise below 60%.

Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

I agree with you. I checked the LFs for PHL on QR and they do not good either. EK has some terrible months in Jan and Feb but they have some excellent times in peak season starting April through August. I do not know how QR is still operating the flight and which station in the States is doing good for them.

Be careful in calculating QR, their base T-100 numbers are not always reflective of the correct seat count or equipment, i've found them to be a few % better than actually comes out.

VS4ever · Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:12 pm

airbazar wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Once the move takes place. B6 will have access to 29 gates, with the above pieces continuing except for 40-42 not being SY and AS any more

Plus the gates they already use in terminal E (E1-E3). Those gates have pretty much become B6's international arrival gates and during the day they also have departures from there. But basically my point was that both DL and B6 are growing and B6 has more space to grow than DL does. So everything else being equal, I don't see DL becoming larger than B6 at BOS.

They won't for the simple reason that DL's daily departures rely a lot on the Regional fleet of 76 seaters, and even at full capacity, 6-7 (or more) less gates plus B6 with a lowest seat count of 100, they won't catch up. B6 want to get to 200 departures. Let's say the average count is around 130 (100 for the 190's, 150-162 for the 320's and 170-200 for the 321's) that puts B6's theoretical max at nearly 19m, in reality it will be closer to 16m because they won't be running 200 departures a day every single day of the year.
DL on the other hand are probably closer to 110, with their internationals and 757's offset by the regionals. I might have to do some analysis on that to be sure. But let's even assume the same average seat count at 130, simple math says 150 departures a day, ain't going to get close to B6. especially as certain gates can't turn quickly because of the AMS/CDG/LHR and now DUB evening departures. To match DL's average seat count would need to be closer to around 175 to be as big as B6 with their stated 150 a day and i just don't see the ability to do that, it would mean pretty much every flight in and out would need to be large narrowbody or widebody and i am not sure the gates would have that space, particularly for any widebodies.

Sounds like from iyerhari's info that DL just passed AA in the pecking order and I am not surprised in that and let's not forget AA is going to end up with 18 gates in the new configuration in B and 1 of those is going to house SY for the most part. The only way the status Quo changes is if someone gobbles up B6 and takes the space,

You are 100% correct, even with the 5 new gates that DL will get, B6 already has more gates and once the B move takes place will get even more.

iyerhari · Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:23 pm

VS4ever wrote:
airbazar wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Once the move takes place. B6 will have access to 29 gates, with the above pieces continuing except for 40-42 not being SY and AS any more

Plus the gates they already use in terminal E (E1-E3). Those gates have pretty much become B6's international arrival gates and during the day they also have departures from there. But basically my point was that both DL and B6 are growing and B6 has more space to grow than DL does. So everything else being equal, I don't see DL becoming larger than B6 at BOS.

They won't for the simple reason that DL's daily departures rely a lot on the Regional fleet of 76 seaters, and even at full capacity, 6-7 (or more) less gates plus B6 with a lowest seat count of 100, they won't catch up. B6 want to get to 200 departures. Let's say the average count is around 130 (100 for the 190's, 150-162 for the 320's and 170-200 for the 321's) that puts B6's theoretical max at nearly 19m, in reality it will be closer to 16m because they won't be running 200 departures a day every single day of the year.
DL on the other hand are probably closer to 110, with their internationals and 757's offset by the regionals. I might have to do some analysis on that to be sure. But let's even assume the same average seat count at 130, simple math says 150 departures a day, ain't going to get close to B6. especially as certain gates can't turn quickly because of the AMS/CDG/LHR and now DUB evening departures. To match DL's average seat count would need to be closer to around 175 to be as big as B6 with their stated 150 a day and i just don't see the ability to do that, it would mean pretty much every flight in and out would need to be large narrowbody or widebody and i am not sure the gates would have that space, particularly for any widebodies.

Sounds like from iyerhari's info that DL just passed AA in the pecking order and I am not surprised in that and let's not forget AA is going to end up with 18 gates in the new configuration in B and 1 of those is going to house SY for the most part. The only way the status Quo changes is if someone gobbles up B6 and takes the space,

You are 100% correct, even with the 5 new gates that DL will get, B6 already has more gates and once the B move takes place will get even more.

Thank you for your detailed insights. But where do you think B6 is going to expand with all these gates? We have been hearing some European destinations are rumored but question is are there that many destinations B6 is going to add that will take them to 200? Isn't B6 currently at 125 flights/day at BOS? 75 flights is a whole lot of flights although they have scheduled delivery of A321N starting 2019 - it will be interesting to see where they expand.

bagoldex · Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:56 pm

JetBlue might say they want to grow to 200 daily flights but I don't see it happening. Their rate of expansion has slowed to a crawl. Other than Minneapolis in a few weeks they don't even have any new routes in the pipeline.

chrisnh · Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:05 am

I agree. I can’t come up with 75 more flights, which unrealistically presumes the 125 they’ve got now won’t suffer any attrition.

VS4ever · Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:08 am

iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Plus the gates they already use in terminal E (E1-E3). Those gates have pretty much become B6's international arrival gates and during the day they also have departures from there. But basically my point was that both DL and B6 are growing and B6 has more space to grow than DL does. So everything else being equal, I don't see DL becoming larger than B6 at BOS.

They won't for the simple reason that DL's daily departures rely a lot on the Regional fleet of 76 seaters, and even at full capacity, 6-7 (or more) less gates plus B6 with a lowest seat count of 100, they won't catch up. B6 want to get to 200 departures. Let's say the average count is around 130 (100 for the 190's, 150-162 for the 320's and 170-200 for the 321's) that puts B6's theoretical max at nearly 19m, in reality it will be closer to 16m because they won't be running 200 departures a day every single day of the year.
DL on the other hand are probably closer to 110, with their internationals and 757's offset by the regionals. I might have to do some analysis on that to be sure. But let's even assume the same average seat count at 130, simple math says 150 departures a day, ain't going to get close to B6. especially as certain gates can't turn quickly because of the AMS/CDG/LHR and now DUB evening departures. To match DL's average seat count would need to be closer to around 175 to be as big as B6 with their stated 150 a day and i just don't see the ability to do that, it would mean pretty much every flight in and out would need to be large narrowbody or widebody and i am not sure the gates would have that space, particularly for any widebodies.

Sounds like from iyerhari's info that DL just passed AA in the pecking order and I am not surprised in that and let's not forget AA is going to end up with 18 gates in the new configuration in B and 1 of those is going to house SY for the most part. The only way the status Quo changes is if someone gobbles up B6 and takes the space,

You are 100% correct, even with the 5 new gates that DL will get, B6 already has more gates and once the B move takes place will get even more.

Thank you for your detailed insights. But where do you think B6 is going to expand with all these gates? We have been hearing some European destinations are rumored but question is are there that many destinations B6 is going to add that will take them to 200? Isn't B6 currently at 125 flights/day at BOS? 75 flights is a whole lot of flights although they have scheduled delivery of A321N starting 2019 - it will be interesting to see where they expand.

If they have quoted 200, I suspect they have a plan to get there. The European part won't be much, maybe 3-4 a day, they just won't have the aircraft to do much more if they go the obvious route and start JFK too and remember 200 will be a max time of year, it won't be consistent every day at that level. Still as you say a lot of frequencies to get there. They will seriously have to plan carefully to get there, The issue is, their major centers are pretty well served already, and others like ORD, ATL etc, are gate constrained. so it's going to have to be new routes for the most part. Then comes the question of equipment and thus how far they want to go. Perhaps Canada is in the future?, who knows... I'm getting the popcorn, because 2019 and 2020 is going to be a very interesting time for BOS as it's really going to set up how the domestic world is going to look for the 5-10 years after that point. And that's before we worry about the International side of things.

bagoldex · Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:25 am

VS4ever wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever wrote:

They won't for the simple reason that DL's daily departures rely a lot on the Regional fleet of 76 seaters, and even at full capacity, 6-7 (or more) less gates plus B6 with a lowest seat count of 100, they won't catch up. B6 want to get to 200 departures. Let's say the average count is around 130 (100 for the 190's, 150-162 for the 320's and 170-200 for the 321's) that puts B6's theoretical max at nearly 19m, in reality it will be closer to 16m because they won't be running 200 departures a day every single day of the year.
DL on the other hand are probably closer to 110, with their internationals and 757's offset by the regionals. I might have to do some analysis on that to be sure. But let's even assume the same average seat count at 130, simple math says 150 departures a day, ain't going to get close to B6. especially as certain gates can't turn quickly because of the AMS/CDG/LHR and now DUB evening departures. To match DL's average seat count would need to be closer to around 175 to be as big as B6 with their stated 150 a day and i just don't see the ability to do that, it would mean pretty much every flight in and out would need to be large narrowbody or widebody and i am not sure the gates would have that space, particularly for any widebodies.

Sounds like from iyerhari's info that DL just passed AA in the pecking order and I am not surprised in that and let's not forget AA is going to end up with 18 gates in the new configuration in B and 1 of those is going to house SY for the most part. The only way the status Quo changes is if someone gobbles up B6 and takes the space,

You are 100% correct, even with the 5 new gates that DL will get, B6 already has more gates and once the B move takes place will get even more.

Thank you for your detailed insights. But where do you think B6 is going to expand with all these gates? We have been hearing some European destinations are rumored but question is are there that many destinations B6 is going to add that will take them to 200? Isn't B6 currently at 125 flights/day at BOS? 75 flights is a whole lot of flights although they have scheduled delivery of A321N starting 2019 - it will be interesting to see where they expand.

If they have quoted 200, I suspect they have a plan to get there.

Plans can change. When they made the 200 flight pronouncement I don't think they were facing as many challenges as they are today such as the flight attendant unionization and a poor reputation for reliability.

tphuang · Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:54 am

bagoldex wrote:
JetBlue might say they want to grow to 200 daily flights but I don't see it happening. Their rate of expansion has slowed to a crawl. Other than Minneapolis in a few weeks they don't even have any new routes in the pipeline.

They are currently at about 165 flights a day (DL is at about 105 and AA is at about 95 to 100) which is up 40 flights a day from 2 years ago. They are adding about 15% ASM per year. There is actually still quite a few domestic markets they really need to add and they've been pretty deliberate. It seems like IND is the next station to add, but I would imagine CVG/CMH/STL/MCI/MKE are all up there. They are adding frequencies to ORD/RDU later this year. And I'd imagine more frequencies will be added to those 2 routes along with DTW/CLT/BWI/IAD/PHL/DFW/HOU as their yields continue to improve on BOS.

Plans can change. When they made the 200 flight pronouncement I don't think they were facing as many challenges as they are today such as the flight attendant unionization and a poor reputation for reliability.

I'd be shocked if they stopped at 200 actually.
They just had one of their best quarters in Q1 and have new planes coming with nowhere to add in JFK. They are throwing all their eggs at BOS right now. I don't see why they would stop at 200. If you are thinking DL additions have caused them to be less profitable in BOS, I can tell you that is not the case based on the Q4 yields I'm seeing.

adamh8297 · Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:05 pm

AV has loaded Boston-San Salvador.

4 weekly Sun/Mon/Wed/Fri on Airbus A319/A320 mix starts on August 17th. Afternoon arrival and departure from BOS.

BOS-SAL 16:05-19:18
SAL-BOS 08:00-14:50

Does connect to the larger Central American cities and BOG/MDE/LIM in South America but all connections seem tight (under 1 hour) It does complement BOS-BOG schedule wise when that route only runs 4 weekly.

I'm shocked its not red-eye from BOS that would maximize connections especially to RTB or BZE!!!

NickolayAv · Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:47 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
AV has loaded Boston-San Salvador.

4 weekly Sun/Mon/Wed/Fri on Airbus A319/A320 mix starts on August 17th. Afternoon arrival and departure from BOS.

BOS-SAL 16:05-19:18
SAL-BOS 08:00-14:50

Does connect to the larger Central American cities and BOG/MDE/LIM in South America but all connections seem tight (under 1 hour) It does complement BOS-BOG schedule wise when that route only runs 4 weekly.

I'm shocked its not red-eye from BOS that would maximize connections especially to RTB or BZE!!!

That turn-around is surprisingly tight.

clrd4t8koff · Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:12 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
AV has loaded Boston-San Salvador.

4 weekly Sun/Mon/Wed/Fri on Airbus A319/A320 mix starts on August 17th. Afternoon arrival and departure from BOS.

BOS-SAL 16:05-19:18
SAL-BOS 08:00-14:50

Does connect to the larger Central American cities and BOG/MDE/LIM in South America but all connections seem tight (under 1 hour) It does complement BOS-BOG schedule wise when that route only runs 4 weekly.

I'm shocked its not red-eye from BOS that would maximize connections especially to RTB or BZE!!!

Are there certain days that AV will have 2 flights to BOS?

adamh8297 · Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:37 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
AV has loaded Boston-San Salvador.

4 weekly Sun/Mon/Wed/Fri on Airbus A319/A320 mix starts on August 17th. Afternoon arrival and departure from BOS.

BOS-SAL 16:05-19:18
SAL-BOS 08:00-14:50

Does connect to the larger Central American cities and BOG/MDE/LIM in South America but all connections seem tight (under 1 hour) It does complement BOS-BOG schedule wise when that route only runs 4 weekly.

I'm shocked its not red-eye from BOS that would maximize connections especially to RTB or BZE!!!

Are there certain days that AV will have 2 flights to BOS?

Yes - Depends on how you look at it though.... the post midnight departure throws the days off a bit but to sum it up. Arrivals from BOG and SAL share Mon/Wed/Fri though 7-8 hours apart. I think the long term plan is for BOG to go daily at least seasonally.

NickolayAv · Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:26 pm

adamh8297 wrote:
I think the long term plan is for BOG to go daily at least seasonally.

Isn't BOG going daily for September and October?

adamh8297 · Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:54 pm

NickolayAv wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
I think the long term plan is for BOG to go daily at least seasonally.

Isn't BOG going daily for September and October?

Its daily from 9/1 until 10/27. Then its 4 weekly except for the week of 11/4 which shows 5 weekly. Some airlines switch "seasons" end of October and end of March. TK and DY follow this pattern with their BOS service. Its possible AV will follow a similar pattern hasn't converted for April yet - they load greater than 365 days.

I'm using ITA's Matrix search page and doing 1 month calendar searches of 1-way nonstop BOS-BOG to get this info too.

tlecam · Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:09 pm

Two BOS observations from The OAG thread

DL is adding a third daily to Tampa in the fall.

DL is dropping the third daily SEA flight in Oct.

737307 · Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:18 pm

So why the “sudden” increase in Central American airliners flying from BOS? What has changed the last couple years? Economics? Ethnologics?

VS4ever · Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:46 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
So why the “sudden” increase in Central American airliners flying from BOS? What has changed the last couple years? Economics? Ethnologics?

Massport and Boston's hit list of routes really wanted a Central/South American option. I am sure incentives have been provided, however the South American economies are rebounding and certainly Avianca have done pretty well on loads out of the gate, which has led to SAL coming on board as well. CM and AM have grown into the frequencies while messing about with aircraft types a bit, but honestly it was just about the right time for the routes to start. Now that the price of fuel is going up, will be interesting to see if any routes get cut, but for right now, they provide some decent connection options into South America.

While a lot of the conversation is about B6 going TATL, I can't help think they are also going to try to go deeper into South America, I can't see LIM being it for them when the 321LR's come along.

adamh8297 · Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:22 pm

VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So why the “sudden” increase in Central American airliners flying from BOS? What has changed the last couple years? Economics? Ethnologics?

Massport and Boston's hit list of routes really wanted a Central/South American option. I am sure incentives have been provided, however the South American economies are rebounding and certainly Avianca have done pretty well on loads out of the gate, which has led to SAL coming on board as well. CM and AM have grown into the frequencies while messing about with aircraft types a bit, but honestly it was just about the right time for the routes to start. Now that the price of fuel is going up, will be interesting to see if any routes get cut, but for right now, they provide some decent connection options into South America.

While a lot of the conversation is about B6 going TATL, I can't help think they are also going to try to go deeper into South America, I can't see LIM being it for them when the 321LR's come along.

Though CM does get a lot of connections to Central America, PTY is better located for South America from BOS since its as close as one can get to South America without being in South America. Here's a comparison of going to GUA. MEX services is only good for Mexico. Unless, you need DL Diamond status, you are out of your mind if you go to South American from BOS via MEX.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BOS-SAL-GU ... =wls&DU=mi

Granted a lot of price sensitive travelers are going to take whatever is cheaper. In Central America, AV seems to want to hub at SAL though they try pick off high O+D from GUA/SJO and even MGA as much as possible. They practically have a focus city in Miami.

UA codeshares are also being put on AV flights and B6/AV have an interline agreement.

RL757PVD · Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:29 pm

One thing to keep in mind when Jetblue throws out flight levels (# of flights) they are referring to peak day (busiest average day). So it would be far from that number in the winter.

My bet is that 30+ of the new flights would be an additional frequency to an existing destination.

chrisnh · Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:42 am

So here’s a question for the group. I’ve never had an ‘airline’ credit card but am down here in Tampa with a work colleague who sings the praises of his JetBlue Plus card. Since my wife and I are contemplating buying a home along the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, this intrigues me. With a critical mass of flights at Logan, B6 goes down here a lot. So over time I suppose I could parlay points into tickets.

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

iyerhari · Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:42 am

VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So why the “sudden” increase in Central American airliners flying from BOS? What has changed the last couple years? Economics? Ethnologics?

Massport and Boston's hit list of routes really wanted a Central/South American option. I am sure incentives have been provided, however the South American economies are rebounding and certainly Avianca have done pretty well on loads out of the gate, which has led to SAL coming on board as well. CM and AM have grown into the frequencies while messing about with aircraft types a bit, but honestly it was just about the right time for the routes to start. Now that the price of fuel is going up, will be interesting to see if any routes get cut, but for right now, they provide some decent connection options into South America.

While a lot of the conversation is about B6 going TATL, I can't help think they are also going to try to go deeper into South America, I can't see LIM being it for them when the 321LR's come along.

The Brazilian population in Mass especially Framingham is one of the top cities in the US. I agree with you - after the Asian massive entrance to NRT, HKG, PKG, PVG, and hopefully ICN in the future, Central and South America is the next major entrance for BOS.

Middle East also geographically belongs to Asia so adding DXB and DOH and TLV to the esteemed list here.

With the exception of probably JFK and EWR, i do not think there is any East Coast airport that offers such good international connectivity. ( sorry did not check all East Coast airports that includes IAD). Massport has delivered on all counts with the exception of India - I do not know or think if we will ever get a direct India flight but we can hopefully wait and speculate for somebody.

iyerhari · Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:52 am

chrisnh wrote:
So here’s a question for the group. I’ve never had an ‘airline’ credit card but am down here in Tampa with a work colleague who sings the praises of his JetBlue Plus card. Since my wife and I are contemplating buying a home along the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, this intrigues me. With a critical mass of flights at Logan, B6 goes down here a lot. So over time I suppose I could parlay points into tickets.

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

This is completely my reasoning and everyone has a different perspective to this. B6 credit card - the one where you pay $99 per year is a good one and if you are one of those who would like to a travel to Caribbean or B6 destination, it is worth it - you can assume a decent leisure destination ticket worth > 100 $. As long as you take the travel, it is worth it IMO. If you do not you are still ok, as you earn a lot of miles and miles multipliers for every dollar you spend.

AA and UA ( i do not know DL) have two tiers of cards. They have a smaller charge $100 and an expensive one for $450. AA also carries the AA Platinum select and LUS carried Aviator Red. The Platinum Select worth $100 that I have does not carry any benefits or travel vouchers except i get miles 1:1 for dollar purchases.

Is it worth it for the one i carry? No but i have had it for a longtime and i honestly do not care for checjed bag waiver as i am anyways FF with AA. It does not even add to my million miler balance.

Sorry for the long post.

tlecam · Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:59 pm

There are some good websites that go through the ins and outs of this. I don't know, for example, if an airline specific card is actually beneficial to the Chase Sapphire or the Capital One Venture etc...

737307 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:24 pm

iyerhari wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
So why the “sudden” increase in Central American airliners flying from BOS? What has changed the last couple years? Economics? Ethnologics?

Massport and Boston's hit list of routes really wanted a Central/South American option. I am sure incentives have been provided, however the South American economies are rebounding and certainly Avianca have done pretty well on loads out of the gate, which has led to SAL coming on board as well. CM and AM have grown into the frequencies while messing about with aircraft types a bit, but honestly it was just about the right time for the routes to start. Now that the price of fuel is going up, will be interesting to see if any routes get cut, but for right now, they provide some decent connection options into South America.

While a lot of the conversation is about B6 going TATL, I can't help think they are also going to try to go deeper into South America, I can't see LIM being it for them when the 321LR's come along.

The Brazilian population in Mass especially Framingham is one of the top cities in the US. I agree with you - after the Asian massive entrance to NRT, HKG, PKG, PVG, and hopefully ICN in the future, Central and South America is the next major entrance for BOS.

Middle East also geographically belongs to Asia so adding DXB and DOH and TLV to the esteemed list here.

With the exception of probably JFK and EWR, i do not think there is any East Coast airport that offers such good international connectivity. ( sorry did not check all East Coast airports that includes IAD). Massport has delivered on all counts with the exception of India - I do not know or think if we will ever get a direct India flight but we can hopefully wait and speculate for somebody.

Perhaps I should rephrase my question.
The Brazilian population in Mass is around for a while. I am sure more than five years. So...why did the Central American airliners only recently start service to BOS. Why did these airlines not start service, e.g. 10 years ago??

ASA · Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:41 pm

chrisnh wrote:
So here’s a question for the group. I’ve never had an ‘airline’ credit card but am down here in Tampa with a work colleague who sings the praises of his JetBlue Plus card. Since my wife and I are contemplating buying a home along the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, this intrigues me. With a critical mass of flights at Logan, B6 goes down here a lot. So over time I suppose I could parlay points into tickets.

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

I'm probably biased here :biggrin:

- but I have been a long user of the JetBlue cards - highly recommend them. I've been using since 2005 ... was on the first flight to SEA and applied on that day. Over the years, it has given us quite a few free tickets. Even better, you can pool all of the family members' miles into one account - gives you more leverage and flexibly.

adamh8297 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:44 pm

Dieuwer wrote:

Perhaps I should rephrase my question.
The Brazilian population in Mass is around for a while. I am sure more than five years. So...why did the Central American airliners only recently start service to BOS. Why did these airlines not start service, e.g. 10 years ago??

TACA (now owned by AV) ran BOS-SAL over 10 years ago. I've read (I think the info is in archived posts on this site) that they wanted early am arrival (it was a red eye from SAL) and CBP had a hard time staffing it at the time. Now its a different story since TLV, SDQ and STI arrive early morning.

In 2003 - PDEW to Central America (no Mexico) was around 180 PDEW. Its easily higher nowadays with PTY/LIR being stimulated from non-stops.

PTY is a better business destination for obvious reason - a lot of the traffic to other parts of Central America is going to be leisure (SJO/LIR/BZE/RTB) or VFR (SAL/GUA/SAP/TGU/MGA). That may have been the reason for the gap in service. Also these flights are close to transcon distance too so its easier for AA and DL to make more money shuttling low fare traffic via ATL and MIA.

Even B6 doesn't have it in them to do BOS/JFK-SJO. They would rather funnel everyone through FLL/MCO.

S0Y · Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:18 pm

chrisnh wrote:

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

B6 $99 card is worth it if you fly with them a couple of times a year. You get 5k B6 points each year (worth about $75 towards a B6 ticket), plus free checked bag plus 50% off the onboard F&B menu. Pretty easy to come out ahead, not to mention the initial sign-up bonus. I think it is one of the better airline cards.

B752OS · Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:33 pm

chrisnh wrote:
So here’s a question for the group. I’ve never had an ‘airline’ credit card but am down here in Tampa with a work colleague who sings the praises of his JetBlue Plus card. Since my wife and I are contemplating buying a home along the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, this intrigues me. With a critical mass of flights at Logan, B6 goes down here a lot. So over time I suppose I could parlay points into tickets.

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

nerdwallet is your friend here. They give a full breakdown of all rewards credit cards and which ones are best for different people.

adamh8297 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:22 pm

Final Order of the B6 receiving the frequency for Saturday-only BOS-HAV has been given. B6 has 90 days to start the route now. Could see announcement very soon. I'm sure they would have loved to have started it earlier this year.

https://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf101/666.pdf

2018 may be the year of Latin America for Logan - GRU/SAL/HAV and increased PTY!

B752OS wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
So here’s a question for the group. I’ve never had an ‘airline’ credit card but am down here in Tampa with a work colleague who sings the praises of his JetBlue Plus card. Since my wife and I are contemplating buying a home along the southern Gulf Coast of Florida, this intrigues me. With a critical mass of flights at Logan, B6 goes down here a lot. So over time I suppose I could parlay points into tickets.

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

nerdwallet is your friend here. They give a full breakdown of all rewards credit cards and which ones are best for different people.

Agree with looking at nerdwallet.

I have both Chase Sapphire (I can dump into UA or WN - thinking of possibly dumping into SQ or BA) and the legacy mid-range JetBlue Card (from AMEX switchover) with $49 annual fee. Its similar to plus except for no 1st bag free. I've been to BGI and GCM using the card. Double points on groceries and restaurants is hard to ignore. We all have to eat - may as well get double points for it.

dvincent · Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:18 pm

S0Y wrote:
chrisnh wrote:

Are these cards worth getting into? Where does JetBlue’s card rank among the bunch? Of course JetBlue coming to MHT would be great but I’m not holding my breath on that score. I’m off to Denver next week on JetBlue. Is there a benefit to signing up while on the flight or is it the same as doing it on-line while at home?

B6 $99 card is worth it if you fly with them a couple of times a year. You get 5k B6 points each year (worth about $75 towards a B6 ticket), plus free checked bag plus 50% off the onboard F&B menu. Pretty easy to come out ahead, not to mention the initial sign-up bonus. I think it is one of the better airline cards.

I have the B6 Plus card (and before that, I had the Amex. I upgraded from the Amex replacement card). I fly regularly and the majority (90%) is with B6. I make up the annual fee difference on checked bags alone in the first few months of the year and the rest after that is gravy. Up to 3 companions get free bags on your ticket too, so if you fly with a spouse or children that may affect the calculus positively too.

You get a 10% points rebate when booking with points and no foreign transaction fees if you travel abroad which may be helpful. I've certainly had worse credit cards.

tysmith95 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:42 pm

hinckley wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

There's a pretty strong historical and cultural connection between Halifax and Boston. Much more so than Montreal and Boston. For many, many years, BOS was the only international destination from YHZ.

Montreal is about a 5 hour drive from Boston, so road trippers take up a good portion of travelers between the two cities. Halifax on the other hand is over 10 hours from Boston, so flying would likely be the dominant form of travel.

Also Boston to Montreal has 5 Greyhound bus trips a day, so airlines have to compete with that. Most price conscious travelers will take the bus or just drive themselves. And Westjet is a low cost airline, business travelers or frequent flyers that would make that route viable are more likely to take Air Canada.

With Halifax there is no non stop bus competition.

737307 · Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:14 pm

tysmith95 wrote:
hinckley wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
Also BOS-YUL is clearly WS weakest route... You would think with larger population it would do better than YHZ regardless of distance.

There's a pretty strong historical and cultural connection between Halifax and Boston. Much more so than Montreal and Boston. For many, many years, BOS was the only international destination from YHZ.

Montreal is about a 5 hour drive from Boston, so road trippers take up a good portion of travelers between the two cities. Halifax on the other hand is over 10 hours from Boston, so flying would likely be the dominant form of travel.

Also Boston to Montreal has 5 Greyhound bus trips a day, so airlines have to compete with that. Most price conscious travelers will take the bus or just drive themselves. And Westjet is a low cost airline, business travelers or frequent flyers that would make that route viable are more likely to take Air Canada.

With Halifax there is no non stop bus competition.

Did the Boston - Montreal thing by car myself several times. It can be 5 hours, but it depends a bit at what time you hit the border and Pont Champlain. Before 4 pm you are good, thereafter you sit in traffic for ages.
Flying is not competitive when taking into account the time spend through security and getting to/from the airports unless we are talking rush-hour. Then flying might win.

iyerhari · Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:52 pm

We have talked about this in the past. Finally there is hope a monorail to connect the terminals will be studied by Massport and blue line connectivity. After June-2019, Terminal B, C and E will be connected thru security. Monorail could be the next thing at Logan.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/201 ... story.html

737307 · Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:19 pm

iyerhari wrote:
We have talked about this in the past. Finally there is hope a monorail to connect the terminals will be studied by Massport and blue line connectivity. After June-2019, Terminal B, C and E will be connected thru security. Monorail could be the next thing at Logan.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/201 ... story.html

And while they are at it, they should connect the Red Line and Blue Line also.

iyerhari · Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:31 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
iyerhari wrote:
We have talked about this in the past. Finally there is hope a monorail to connect the terminals will be studied by Massport and blue line connectivity. After June-2019, Terminal B, C and E will be connected thru security. Monorail could be the next thing at Logan.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/201 ... story.html

And while they are at it, they should connect the Red Line and Blue Line also.

That is a tall order and is a broader discussion on the state of our public transportation system itself. MBTA is not financially in a good shape and has approximately 5B$ debt vs. Massport that runs a budget surplus. There are several projects related to MBTA that have discussed with promise but I do not believe they are anywhere close - North to South station connectivity, the green line connection to Somerville may get started etc.

hinckley · Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:39 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
And while they are at it, they should connect the Red Line and Blue Line also.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/ ... story.html

33lspotter · Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:42 pm

iyerhari wrote:
That is a tall order and is a broader discussion on the state of our public transportation system itself. MBTA is not financially in a good shape and has approximately 5B$ debt vs. Massport that runs a budget surplus. There are several projects related to MBTA that have discussed with promise but I do not believe they are anywhere close - North to South station connectivity, the green line connection to Somerville may get started etc.

In addition to the debt, a $7.3 billion maintenance backlog. My friend's dad works in the central office at the MTA — he says that NY/NJ's rail cars are, on average, a generation newer than Boston's, and — excluding the newer fleet of MBTA Hyundai Rotem double-deckers — you definitely notice the younger age of NJT/Metro North rail cars versus their MBTA counterparts. And that's not even talking about the subway cars: people talk about how the green line is the "oldest subway line in America" like it's a point of pride (not sure I would brag about that considering the fact that it runs like it).

Gotta love the (bipartisan) game of "kick the can" that has been going on for the last 25-30 years. Of course, with 2x the number of people per square mile, NY/NJ has much more of a capacity problem, but that's neither here nor there.

### End Rant ###

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