msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:12 pm

B6 is showing a big increase to JFK starting in May, going from 2 to 4 daily. 2 320s and 1 190/321. Now if we could get them to give LGB a try...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:25 am

That'd be an ultra-longshot, for an airport that doesn't have service to Dallas, Houston, Atlanta nor Chicago... but then again, AUS did it, so there's that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msyflyer
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:06 pm

msycajun wrote:
B6 is showing a big increase to JFK starting in May, going from 2 to 4 daily. 2 320s and 1 190/321. Now if we could get them to give LGB a try...


Could this just be a coincidence that it ties in with the new terminal opening?
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:36 pm

B6 does do 3X to JFK seasonally, but I don't think they've ever done 4. Also, nice to see the 321 back in the schedules. That would bring them to 7 departures per day. Of course, I'm sure the extra flights are just seasonal, but it's a good sign! I do think the LGB ship has sailed, however - there are currently 9 daily nonstops between MSY and LAX.
Spread hope like fire.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:51 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
B6 does do 3X to JFK seasonally, but I don't think they've ever done 4. Also, nice to see the 321 back in the schedules. That would bring them to 7 departures per day. Of course, I'm sure the extra flights are just seasonal, but it's a good sign! I do think the LGB ship has sailed, however - there are currently 9 daily nonstops between MSY and LAX.



Probably right since LGB is def a point to point airport with no connecting traffic but I still wouldnt be surprised to see some more growth there at that airport. San Jose is growing because people want to avoid SFO and I could LGB becoming the anti-LAX... especially for domestic.. time will tell
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:15 pm

DJSNOLA wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
B6 does do 3X to JFK seasonally, but I don't think they've ever done 4. Also, nice to see the 321 back in the schedules. That would bring them to 7 departures per day. Of course, I'm sure the extra flights are just seasonal, but it's a good sign! I do think the LGB ship has sailed, however - there are currently 9 daily nonstops between MSY and LAX.



Probably right since LGB is def a point to point airport with no connecting traffic but I still wouldnt be surprised to see some more growth there at that airport. San Jose is growing because people want to avoid SFO and I could LGB becoming the anti-LAX... especially for domestic.. time will tell


They certainly missed an opportunity a few years ago when we had less LAX/MCO/FLL service. FLL/MCO-MSY-LGB would have been a great way to bolster those hubs.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:59 am

DJSNOLA wrote:
I still wouldnt be surprised to see some more growth there at that airport.

They can't grow there without taking something away. They're capped at how many mainline-sized ops they can offer per day.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:26 am

Just a general comment...

We have it pretty good in terms of international service for a region our size. Decent global hub connectivity. I think the key missing link is MEX - hopefully AM gives us another shot.

Year-round 5X weekly 787 to LHR (BA)
Year-round 4X weekly 737 to PTY (CM)
Year-round 1-2X daily E75 to YYZ (AC)
Seasonal 2X weekly 767 to FRA (DE)
Seasonal 1X weekly 737/320 to
CUN (DL, UA, WN)

Plus seasonal charters to MBJ and PUJ.
Spread hope like fire.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:02 am

SunsetLimited wrote:
Just a general comment...

We have it pretty good in terms of international service for a region our size. Decent global hub connectivity. I think the key missing link is MEX - hopefully AM gives us another shot.

Year-round 5X weekly 787 to LHR (BA)
Year-round 4X weekly 737 to PTY (CM)
Year-round 1-2X daily E75 to YYZ (AC)
Seasonal 2X weekly 767 to FRA (DE)
Seasonal 1X weekly 737/320 to
CUN (DL, UA, WN)

Plus seasonal charters to MBJ and PUJ.


Agreed, our international schedule is really good for a market our size. MEX would be a nice addition, and YUL could probably work on a seasonal basis. Both have the demand for at least regional jet service. Maybe not daily, but a few times a week.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:00 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
We have it pretty good in terms of international service for a region our size.

Agreed, our international schedule is really good for a market our size. MEX would be a nice addition, and YUL could probably work on a seasonal basis. Both have the demand for at least regional jet service. Maybe not daily, but a few times a week.

Markets like STL, CVG, and CLE are starting to see the bloom fall off the intercon LoCo rose, as well.
WW announced it's ending STL-KEF, only 5mo after starting. CLE is going to seasonal.

https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... 62b34.html

MSY really is doing pretty well. Though I'd love to see CDG+MEX+YUL some day, still hugely thankful for what it already has, and the efforts it took to get it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:30 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
I still wouldnt be surprised to see some more growth there at that airport.

They can't grow there without taking something away. They're capped at how many mainline-sized ops they can offer per day.


i thought i read something different recently about some possible changes to increasing the use but shortenin the hours of operation
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:34 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
We have it pretty good in terms of international service for a region our size.

Agreed, our international schedule is really good for a market our size. MEX would be a nice addition, and YUL could probably work on a seasonal basis. Both have the demand for at least regional jet service. Maybe not daily, but a few times a week.

Markets like STL, CVG, and CLE are starting to see the bloom fall off the intercon LoCo rose, as well.
WW announced it's ending STL-KEF, only 5mo after starting. CLE is going to seasonal.

https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... 62b34.html

MSY really is doing pretty well. Though I'd love to see CDG+MEX+YUL some day, still hugely thankful for what it already has, and the efforts it took to get it.


sounds like WOW air has some issues actually ... loing 45 million last year? yikes
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:36 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
Just a general comment...

We have it pretty good in terms of international service for a region our size. Decent global hub connectivity. I think the key missing link is MEX - hopefully AM gives us another shot.

Year-round 5X weekly 787 to LHR (BA)
Year-round 4X weekly 737 to PTY (CM)
Year-round 1-2X daily E75 to YYZ (AC)
Seasonal 2X weekly 767 to FRA (DE)
Seasonal 1X weekly 737/320 to
CUN (DL, UA, WN)

Plus seasonal charters to MBJ and PUJ.


Agreed, our international schedule is really good for a market our size. MEX would be a nice addition, and YUL could probably work on a seasonal basis. Both have the demand for at least regional jet service. Maybe not daily, but a few times a week.


I def would like to see Nassau added as well as Montreal and perhaps Iceland (but thats just a personal want .. but given the financials of Icelandair and Wow i think they are done expanding for awhile and will contract destinations)
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:43 pm

Well MEX is looking more like a long shot with all of the routes they are cutting. Maybe that's good for CM. On the other hand, they seem to be cutting a lot of longer routes, so perhaps MSY's location is an advantage, especially if paired with new DL service to BOS, CVG, RDU, etc.

While a priority for me would be shorter length regional connectivity, I would like to see MBJ and PUJ shifted to scheduled service on WN or NK, plus maybe a few similar routes.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:23 am

msycajun wrote:
Well MEX is looking more like a long shot with all of the routes they are cutting.

MEX is currently extremely slot-limited, that's part of the reason for the cuts. Airlines have to cut A to do B.

EK just cancelled plans to serve MEX in part due to inability to get slots.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msyflyer
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:11 pm

For those interested, new nola.com posted new terminal pictures. Looking good! Not sure if May will possible! LOL

https://www.nola.com/business/2018/10/s ... minal.html
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:29 pm

Interior looks to be coming along nicely.

July 2018 domestic and April 2018 international load factors and passenger numbers by route as calculated using Transtats data. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/databases ... ject_ID2=0

International load factor for all carriers in April was 78.5%. Passenger traffic grew by 14.8% and seat count grew by 19.1% resulting in a -2.9% decline in load factor. AC saw a 6.2% increase in seat count and a flat pax count result in a -5.3% decline in load factor. BA saw a 20.4% increase in seat count and a 23% increase in pax result in a 1.7% increase in load factor. CM saw a 33.3% increase in seat count and a 41.5% increase in pax result in a 4.6% increase in load factor. DL saw a -9.7% decrease in seat count and a -31.9% decrease in pax result in a -19.6% decline in load factor. This decrease by DL was likely due to WN starting up CUN service in April. WN saw a paltry load factor of 48.5% in the first month of service.

April International route seat count(%change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change)

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AC................8,700(+6.2%)................7,050(-0.3%).........81.0%(-5.3%)
BA................9,020(+20.4%)..............7,332(+23.0%)......81.3%(+1.7%)
CM...............4,460(+33.3%)..............3,504(+41.5%)......78.6%(+4.6%)
DL................1,192(-9.7%)....................718(-31.9%).......60.2%(-19.6%)
WN.................858................................416.....................48.5%

On the domestic side, airport-wide seat count grew by 7.6% and pax traffic grew by 7.1% resulting in a -0.4% decrease in load factors to 83.6%. F9's MSY-DEN route had the best loads of the month at 96.1%. Both NK's MSY-ACY and MSY-CHM routes had the worst loads of the month at 63.7%. Year to date, the UA's MSY-DEN route had the best load factor at 93.0%, and NK's MSY-ACY had the worst load factor at 59.6%.

July Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AS................19,892(+85.8%)...........16,830(+70.0%).......84.6%(-7.9%)
AA...............204,807(+4.1%)...........168,751(+3.0%)........82.4%(-0.9%)
B6................37,694(+3.4%)..............32,487(+6.1%)........86.2%(+2.2%)
DL...............206,912(+2.8%)............181,574(+3.6%).......87.8%(+0.7%)
F9................33,590(+55.1%)............29,595(+53.2%)......88.1%(-1.1%)
G4................16,924(-29.7%).............14,583(-23.1%)......86.2%(+7.4%)
NK..............159,605(+41.3%).........132,357(+41.3%)......83.0%(0.0%)
UA..............141,747(-6.0%)............126,871(-2.5%).........89.5%(+3.2%)
WN.............521,406(+5.8%)............418,502(+3.3%).......80.3%(-2.0%)

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_XIgbK86N2kPFUiFgeyVdPNanrB2qatLCIShRtCRLs/edit?usp=sharing

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B6bS8RNmaygLVtQ18N7aIAziuHLr6W1g1XTgve_M-Lg/edit?usp=sharing
 
Nola
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:24 pm

A World Class Airport for the End of the World. I can't say I agree--people do have to get around somehow.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... ns/573268/
 
jbs2886
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:14 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Interior looks to be coming along nicely.

July 2018 domestic and April 2018 international load factors and passenger numbers by route as calculated using Transtats data. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/databases ... ject_ID2=0

International load factor for all carriers in April was 78.5%. Passenger traffic grew by 14.8% and seat count grew by 19.1% resulting in a -2.9% decline in load factor. AC saw a 6.2% increase in seat count and a flat pax count result in a -5.3% decline in load factor. BA saw a 20.4% increase in seat count and a 23% increase in pax result in a 1.7% increase in load factor. CM saw a 33.3% increase in seat count and a 41.5% increase in pax result in a 4.6% increase in load factor. DL saw a -9.7% decrease in seat count and a -31.9% decrease in pax result in a -19.6% decline in load factor. This decrease by DL was likely due to WN starting up CUN service in April. WN saw a paltry load factor of 48.5% in the first month of service.

April International route seat count(%change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change)

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AC................8,700(+6.2%)................7,050(-0.3%).........81.0%(-5.3%)
BA................9,020(+20.4%)..............7,332(+23.0%)......81.3%(+1.7%)
CM...............4,460(+33.3%)..............3,504(+41.5%)......78.6%(+4.6%)
DL................1,192(-9.7%)....................718(-31.9%).......60.2%(-19.6%)
WN.................858................................416.....................48.5%

On the domestic side, airport-wide seat count grew by 7.6% and pax traffic grew by 7.1% resulting in a -0.4% decrease in load factors to 83.6%. F9's MSY-DEN route had the best loads of the month at 96.1%. Both NK's MSY-ACY and MSY-CHM routes had the worst loads of the month at 63.7%. Year to date, the UA's MSY-DEN route had the best load factor at 93.0%, and NK's MSY-ACY had the worst load factor at 59.6%.

July Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.............................Pax..........................LF
AS................19,892(+85.8%)...........16,830(+70.0%).......84.6%(-7.9%)
AA...............204,807(+4.1%)...........168,751(+3.0%)........82.4%(-0.9%)
B6................37,694(+3.4%)..............32,487(+6.1%)........86.2%(+2.2%)
DL...............206,912(+2.8%)............181,574(+3.6%).......87.8%(+0.7%)
F9................33,590(+55.1%)............29,595(+53.2%)......88.1%(-1.1%)
G4................16,924(-29.7%).............14,583(-23.1%)......86.2%(+7.4%)
NK..............159,605(+41.3%).........132,357(+41.3%)......83.0%(0.0%)
UA..............141,747(-6.0%)............126,871(-2.5%).........89.5%(+3.2%)
WN.............521,406(+5.8%)............418,502(+3.3%).......80.3%(-2.0%)

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_XIgbK86N2kPFUiFgeyVdPNanrB2qatLCIShRtCRLs/edit?usp=sharing

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B6bS8RNmaygLVtQ18N7aIAziuHLr6W1g1XTgve_M-Lg/edit?usp=sharing


Interesting point from those statistics - MSY-LAX is the highest LF for AA, DL and WN. #3 for Spirit.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:06 am

Still surprised UA stopped flying to LAX. AA has taken advantage, and is now up to 3x daily.
 
jbs2886
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:12 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Still surprised UA stopped flying to LAX. AA has taken advantage, and is now up to 3x daily.


3x daily? When did that get announced.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:15 am

Flights to LAX...

AA - 2
DL - 3
WN - 3
NK - 1

The market is showing no signs of slowing down.
Spread hope like fire.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:06 am

Whoops, got the AA and WN service levels to LAX backwards. Still, AA went from 0 to 2x daily flights in a very short period of time. UA has reduced capacity so much, that NK was actually the 4th largest airline at the airport in July in terms of capacity. I doubt most of us would have predicted that a few years ago.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:28 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
UA has reduced capacity so much, that NK was actually the 4th largest airline at the airport in July in terms of capacity. I doubt most of us would have predicted that a few years ago.

Even more exciting IMO, is how big can they get?

I wouldn't be surprised to see NK second to WN at MSY, in the relatively near future.
If they start offering significant cnnx, that's a wrap.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:37 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Even more exciting IMO, is how big can they get?

I wouldn't be surprised to see NK second to WN at MSY, in the relatively near future.
If they start offering significant cnnx, that's a wrap.


I think they are going to be the first airline to jump on PDX and JAX. I could also see them compete against WN to OAK. One oddball that might work is IAG to grab some of the Canadian market. Of course, we're all still waiting to see if they go international as well. One thing is certain, MSY has worked out very well for NK.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:02 pm

Here's how MSY stacked up against the other BA cities in April...

Airport.......Seats.....Pax.....Load Factor
MIA..........48360....42533......87.95%
SFO........ 44376....37848......85.29%
SEA.........26332....22453......85.27%
LAX.........67064....56923......84.88%
LAS.........36132....30455......84.29%
EWR.......25156.....21157......84.10%
ATL.........13560.....11280......83.19%
BWI.........11988......9918.......82.73%
ORD........33124....27304......82.43%
MSY...........9020......7332......81.29%
JFK........141770...114762.....80.95%
IAD..........35914......28973....80.67%
MCO........33970......26834....78.99%
TPA.........16228......12695.....78.23%
DFW........20096......15559.....77.42%
PHX.........25488......19465.....76.37%
AUS.........17906......13593.....75.91%
SJC.........11440.........8633.....75.46%
FLL...........7284.........5464....75.01%
SAN........17118.......12816....74.87%
PHL.........20172......15074....74.73%
BOS........64059......47081......73.50%
DEN........20220......14602......72.22%
IAH..........26075......18376......70.47%
OAK..........6600........3524......53.39%
 
Nola
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
UA has reduced capacity so much, that NK was actually the 4th largest airline at the airport in July in terms of capacity. I doubt most of us would have predicted that a few years ago.

Even more exciting IMO, is how big can they get?

I wouldn't be surprised to see NK second to WN at MSY, in the relatively near future.
If they start offering significant cnnx, that's a wrap.


The reduced UA capacity is particularly interesting since they are building a club in the new terminal. I think someone posted that the United Club is actually going to be bigger than the SkyClub.
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:48 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see UA's numbers rise a bit with the third DEN flight coming in and as many as 5 to EWR seasonally. I would expect IAD to get a third or fourth flight depending on how the restructuring there pans out.

NK on the other hand will probably be flat or down a bit, barring an announcement of more routes. They've been more aggressive about cutting off-peak flying so many routes aren't flown Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Plus ACY and CMH don't appear to be returning. A lot of capacity will be tied up with the new MCO flying and installation of WIFI.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:53 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
I think they are going to be the first airline to jump on PDX and JAX.

Well, back onto JAX... plenty of airlines have tried that, including WN and G4. They've all pulled out.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:20 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
I think they are going to be the first airline to jump on PDX and JAX.

Well, back onto JAX... plenty of airlines have tried that, including WN and G4. They've all pulled out.


I unfortunately don't see NK on JAX in the near future, unless they plan a major build-up at MSY. WN flew it in the past, but has since reduced shorter routes and with the larger average gauge, it would be hard to fill daily. 2 or 3 weekly is fairly useless on such a short route. I think it is a perfect Silver route, if they ever get their ATR certification act together. They'd have the connections and UA frequent fliers to maybe even do 2 daily.

NK has reduced longer flights, so I wouldn't expect to see them on PDX, OAK, or SEA any time soon, again unless they build up more connections. At some point AS will turn its attention back to PDX and I expect MSY to be high on the list. They seem to be doing well with their SEA and SFO routes so far. Maybe even SAN and SJC will be in the cards for them, since WN seems uninterested in growing those at the moment.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:53 am

The issue for NK is the likes of JAX, OAK, etc. are some of the few stations with enough traffic to expand to. If they want to continue to grow the station, they will have to fly there. They could of course add some international destinations, but domestic adds for connectivity are very important for any international routes that do start from here. Our station has rapidly grown to be tied for 10th largest in terms of destinations for NK. ATL and MSP are the other stations tied with us.

MYR is currently the largest NK station without non-stop service from MSY. Most of the routes are seasonal from MYR and heavily focused on routes from the Midwest/Northeast. Doubt we'd see a flight there from NK.

Next on the list is RSW. I could see this be a potential new route from NK on a seasonal less than daily basis.

Next up is PHL...I could see them replace ACY with this route. That's if they want to get into a 3-way fight with AA and F9.

Behind PHL is DEN, again with ample competition from UA, WN, and F9. Not sure they want to get into that.

PIT follows, and is definitely a market I could see with CLE levels of service...3x weekly.

SAN and SEA are next on the list, and I see AS on SAN before NK. SEA with 2x daily AS service and seasonal weekend DL service is well served.

OAK, BDL, MCI, LBE, and LGA are all tied at 5 destinations, and of these OAK and BDL could work on a seasonal 3-4x weekly schedule. MCI is currently well served with the WN flight. LGA has WN and DL, and NK already flies to EWR. I think that's enough service to NYC for NK. LBE is so close to PIT, that NK would probably just stick with a PIT flight if they decided to start that route up.

PBI is not going to happen.

PHX could work. WN needs some competition on that route.

CAK, AVL, and GSO are not going to happen.

IAG, PBG, are wild-cards to me. NK is smaller than I thought at these stations at only 2 destinations, so probably not happening anytime soon.

RIC and JAX are small stations at 2 destinations, but a 2-3x weekly seasonal flight might work in 5 years or so as those stations build up.

PDX is also way smaller than I thought at 2 destinations. Agreed that we should just wait for AS to start up the route.

CRW is not going to happen.

In summary, the most viable domestic stations that could see MSY service in my opinion are RSW, PHL, PIT, OAK, BDL, PHX, RIC, and JAX.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:40 am

Here's how MSY stacked up against other BA cities for the first 4 months of 2018.

Airport......Seats........Pax......Load Factor
LAS........124368....104545.......84.06%
SEA.........86267......72434.......83.96%
MIA........191300....160369.......83.83%
SFO.......155173....126936.......81.80%
ORD.......124947....100784......80.66%
DFW.........70286......56544......80.45%
SAN..........66322.....52615.......79.33%
MCO.........86128.....68103.......79.07%
LAX.........238398...188431.......79.04%
AUS..........57002.....44602.......78.25%
PHX..........87372.....67918.......77.73%
EWR.......101961.....78781.......77.27%
TPA..........53554......41347.......77.21%
IAD.........125133......95736.......76.51%
PHL..........69839......52557.......75.25%
BWI..........49922......37375.......74.87%
JFK.........532292....394169......74.05%
BOS........210666....154808......73.49%
MSY..........36046......26249......72.82%
DEN..........80384......56731......70.57%
ATL...........56993......40088......70.34%
IAH...........92310......64831......70.23%
FLL...........24144.....16572.......68.64%
SJC..........44704......30507......68.24%
OAK..........24475.....10441......42.66%

Still trying to figure out why we aren't daily year round yet if we are performing better than the likes of SJC, IAH, DEN, and ATL during the winter doldrums.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1005
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:31 am

Here's MSY performed compared to other CM cities. Capacity was increased from the 94 seat E190 to the 124 seat 73G this January, and it obviously impacted load factors during the winter season.

Airport......Seats........Pax......Load Factor
JFK........129384....114372.......88.40%
IAD.........74688.......65391.......87.55%
FLL.........22044......19208........87.13%
MCO......173008....146621.......84.75%
LAS.........38298......32397.......84.59%
LAX........126896....107197......84.48%
MIA........215452....177295.......82.29%
BOS........52768......43388........82.22%
DEN........22080......17763........80.45%
SFO........84854......65782........77.52%
TPA.........17576......13572.......77.22%
ORD........70224......53226.......75.79%
SJU..........50604.....35993.......71.13%
MSY.........17418......12152.......69.77%

However, it looks like the capacity started to be filled at a better rate by April.

Airport......Seats........Pax......Load Factor
FLL..........4216.........3758........89.14%
LAS..........9588.........8480.......88.44%
JFK.........32802.......28797.......87.79%
IAD.........18714.......16081.......85.93%
LAX.........30954......26354.......85.14%
BOS........15336......12692........82.76%
MCO.......43144......35637........82.60%
MIA.........51164......40966........80.07%
MSY.........4460........3504.........78.57%
SFO........23870......17925........75.09%
ORD.......16544......12068........72.94%
DEN.........5440........3938.........72.39%
SJU........15852.......11141........70.28%
TPA..........4608........3002........65.15%
 
msycajun
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:00 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
The issue for NK is the likes of JAX, OAK, etc. are some of the few stations with enough traffic to expand to.
Next up is PHL...I could see them replace ACY with this route. That's if they want to get into a 3-way fight with AA and F9.
Behind PHL is DEN, again with ample competition from UA, WN, and F9. Not sure they want to get into that.
PIT follows, and is definitely a market I could see with CLE levels of service...3x weekly.
SAN and SEA are next on the list, and I see AS on SAN before NK. SEA with 2x daily AS service and seasonal weekend DL service is well served.
...
In summary, the most viable domestic stations that could see MSY service in my opinion are RSW, PHL, PIT, OAK, BDL, PHX, RIC, and JAX.


Well first thing, I don't think NK is worried about jumping into a route with competition given that almost all of their routes have some competition and some of the first adds were the likes of DFW, IAH, ORD, etc. Plus in a few cases (ATL for one) NK has been able to run F9 off of a route. Typically when MSY has a route that gets more competition the lower fares stimulate O&D significantly. With reliability now better than some of the legacies, WIFI and other improvements, they can hold their own.

So I do see DEN, PHL, PHX, SAN, and OAK as strong possibilities. I just saw the Q2 2018 O&D survey and the bay area has the numbers for 4-5 flights, but again it's a question of their willingness to do longer flights with their model and more expensive fuel. WN going daily to SJC and SMF would absorb a lot of that demand as well.

Then there is the possibility of more routes going 2 daily - I think IAH, ORD, and MCO (new crew base) would benefit from that and increase connectivity.

Beyond that, I agree PIT would do well - should have been daily on WN by now. BDL and RIC would be next on my list because of the larger catchment. If RIC draws from ORF, that's almost 140 PDEW total. BDL would probably capture some ALB and PVD and some that currently uses NYC/BOS. Internationally 2-3 to MBJ, SAP, PUJ, maybe SJO would be on my list.

By the way GSO shows about 25 PDEW and RSW/PBI at 21/20, so I don't see either without some expansion of connectivity to go with it. However it will be interesting to see if GSO pans out for NK and can draw significantly from CLT and RDU. I wouldn't write it off. And then there are the cities NK doesn't currently serve - AUS, SAT, IND, BNA, STL, MKE, SLC...a lot of possibilities there.

I don't know if all of the recent adds have matured enough for more growth, but I wouldn't be surprised by another 5-10 flights in the next year or two either.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 11247
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:48 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Here's MSY performed compared to other CM cities.

Should also be noted that MSY remains the only FAA medium-hub selected by CM in the US, despite having now offered the service for 3yrs.

All of its other stations are 18M+ pax operations.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
mia
Posts: 850
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:40 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:47 pm

msycajun wrote:
Typically when MSY has a route that gets more competition the lower fares stimulate O&D significantly. With reliability now better than some of the legacies, WIFI and other improvements, they can hold their own.


I used to be a NEVER Spirit guy and I have to say, their low fares (in spite of nickle and diming) really give me some breathing room when it comes to getting to MSY. I go more. With WN adding LGA, and B6 adding extra capacity next year, which I doubt will last, I suspect fares will be stable and actually fair, for the time being. Giving those of us that have to fly to MSY a break from the usurious fares we have had to disgorge to get down for a weekend.
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 351
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:09 pm

mia wrote:
msycajun wrote:
Typically when MSY has a route that gets more competition the lower fares stimulate O&D significantly. With reliability now better than some of the legacies, WIFI and other improvements, they can hold their own.


I used to be a NEVER Spirit guy and I have to say, their low fares (in spite of nickle and diming) really give me some breathing room when it comes to getting to MSY. I go more. With WN adding LGA, and B6 adding extra capacity next year, which I doubt will last, I suspect fares will be stable and actually fair, for the time being. Giving those of us that have to fly to MSY a break from the usurious fares we have had to disgorge to get down for a weekend.



Still havent flown Spirit yet but need to give it a try .. do they have wifi?
 
msycajun
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:27 pm

DJSNOLA wrote:
mia wrote:
msycajun wrote:
Typically when MSY has a route that gets more competition the lower fares stimulate O&D significantly. With reliability now better than some of the legacies, WIFI and other improvements, they can hold their own.


I used to be a NEVER Spirit guy and I have to say, their low fares (in spite of nickle and diming) really give me some breathing room when it comes to getting to MSY. I go more. With WN adding LGA, and B6 adding extra capacity next year, which I doubt will last, I suspect fares will be stable and actually fair, for the time being. Giving those of us that have to fly to MSY a break from the usurious fares we have had to disgorge to get down for a weekend.



Still havent flown Spirit yet but need to give it a try .. do they have wifi?


They are supposed to start adding it to their fleet next month to be completed by the summer. That's another reason growth has slowed down and will be slower for the next several months as planes are taken out of service for the wifi to be added.
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 351
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:30 pm

msycajun wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
mia wrote:

I used to be a NEVER Spirit guy and I have to say, their low fares (in spite of nickle and diming) really give me some breathing room when it comes to getting to MSY. I go more. With WN adding LGA, and B6 adding extra capacity next year, which I doubt will last, I suspect fares will be stable and actually fair, for the time being. Giving those of us that have to fly to MSY a break from the usurious fares we have had to disgorge to get down for a weekend.



Still havent flown Spirit yet but need to give it a try .. do they have wifi?


They are supposed to start adding it to their fleet next month to be completed by the summer. That's another reason growth has slowed down and will be slower for the next several months as planes are taken out of service for the wifi to be added.



Thats good to hear.. wifi is a must for me.. its by biggest gripe with british airways.. ridiculous they dont have wifi on all their planes yet
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 11247
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:20 am

DJSNOLA wrote:
Thats good to hear.. wifi is a must for me.. its by biggest gripe with british airways.. ridiculous they dont have wifi on all their planes yet

Despite previously having Concorde and being the first to launch flatbeds in J... BA is currently rather famous for their utter reluctance to innovate, well, anything.

They've long since learned that they don't have to; being the primary player in the world's premier pax aviation market, means that they don't really need gimmicks to fill premium seats to yield.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
msycajun
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:35 pm

So AC just announced YUL-RDU, a market that was smaller than YUL-MSY according to the stats posted a while back. Hopefully we are next in line.
 
mia
Posts: 850
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:40 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:59 pm

@DJSNOLA no wifi. Allegedly its coming as others have noted.

@LAX772LR they are also an airline that refuses to participate in pre-check.
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
DJSNOLA
Posts: 351
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2017 3:40 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:47 pm

msycajun wrote:
So AC just announced YUL-RDU, a market that was smaller than YUL-MSY according to the stats posted a while back. Hopefully we are next in line.



Im sure that has somewhat to do with the much shorter flight time from Raleigh to Montreal compared to NOLA. Close to half the time, no?
 
csweet
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:49 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:57 pm

DJSNOLA wrote:
msycajun wrote:
So AC just announced YUL-RDU, a market that was smaller than YUL-MSY according to the stats posted a while back. Hopefully we are next in line.



Im sure that has somewhat to do with the much shorter flight time from Raleigh to Montreal compared to NOLA. Close to half the time, no?


Roughly 45 minutes shorter. With that said, RDU is a medical/ research hub which links perfectly with Monteal's medical and research industry. MSY doesn't have the business to justify an AC flight from YUL.
 
msycajun
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:51 pm

csweet wrote:
MSY doesn't have the business to justify an AC flight from YUL.

Yeah, people were saying the same thing about LHR before BA announced MSY. One of the big drivers could be the new A220 line in Mobile, but MSY already has more O&D than RDU to YUL. Now given the distance, I would expect either less than daily or seasonal on a 70 or 75 seater to start with.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1005
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:32 am

If MSY can support year round service to LHR, PTY, and YYZ, YUL is certainly doable. According to StatsCan, in 2016 there were 32 PDEW flying between YUL and MSY. It was the 26th largest transborder O&D market out of YUL, and the 4th largest unserved transborder market behind HNL, SAN, and SEA. RDU was the 5th largest unserved transborder market until the announcement with 30 PDEW. If RDU has enough traffic to warrant a flight, MSY can certainly support one as well. They recently announced PIT as well which only had 17 PDEW in 2016.

If YYZ is as constrained as reported, we should be seeing more flights out of YUL to cities easily served by regional jets like MSY, BNA, AUS, STL, IND, etc.
 
csweet
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:49 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:44 pm

msycajun wrote:
csweet wrote:
MSY doesn't have the business to justify an AC flight from YUL.

Yeah, people were saying the same thing about LHR before BA announced MSY. One of the big drivers could be the new A220 line in Mobile, but MSY already has more O&D than RDU to YUL. Now given the distance, I would expect either less than daily or seasonal on a 70 or 75 seater to start with.


That is a completely different market. LHR-MSY is a leisure route, YUL-RDU is geared for business. Also, AC flies an RJ200 currently, why would YUL-MSY be any more than that?
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 11247
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:01 am

csweet wrote:
LHR-MSY is a leisure route

No offense, but you're further demonstrating that you have no clue what you're talking about....
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
csweet
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:49 pm

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:27 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
csweet wrote:
LHR-MSY is a leisure route

No offense, but you're further demonstrating that you have no clue what you're talking about....


Happy Monday to you as well. Please do explain how so as you cropped 3 words from my post.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1005
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:45 pm

Nice shot of the arrivals area at the new terminal. Good to see that the covered area is being extended out over the roadway around the main pick-up area.

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