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LAX772LR
Posts: 15185
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 06, 2018 7:56 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
there absolutely needs to be a third lounge that you can pay to access

You can pay to access the SkyClub and United lounge

Not SkyClub, unless you're ticketed aboard DL or a partner.
Even annual SkyClub members will be required to have a 006 ticket, starting in January.

Policy:
A Single Visit Pass must be used in conjunction with same-day ticketed air travel on Delta Air Lines or its partner airlines.
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US ... rules.html
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 06, 2018 11:45 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
there absolutely needs to be a third lounge that you can pay to access

You can pay to access the SkyClub and United lounge

Not SkyClub, unless you're ticketed aboard DL or a partner.
Even annual SkyClub members will be required to have a 006 ticket, starting in January.

Policy:
A Single Visit Pass must be used in conjunction with same-day ticketed air travel on Delta Air Lines or its partner airlines.
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US ... rules.html


That sucks. I guess the DL clubs in the hubs were getting to crowded.

I'm certain our airport could easily support a third party lounge. AA and BA business class pax alone would keep it pretty busy. Priority Pass would of course be best, but I'll take The Club, Airspace, or Wingtips.
 
jbs2886
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 06, 2018 11:59 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
You can pay to access the SkyClub and United lounge

Not SkyClub, unless you're ticketed aboard DL or a partner.
Even annual SkyClub members will be required to have a 006 ticket, starting in January.

Policy:
A Single Visit Pass must be used in conjunction with same-day ticketed air travel on Delta Air Lines or its partner airlines.
https://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US ... rules.html


That sucks. I guess the DL clubs in the hubs were getting to crowded.

I'm certain our airport could easily support a third party lounge. AA and BA business class pax alone would keep it pretty busy. Priority Pass would of course be best, but I'll take The Club, Airspace, or Wingtips.


Priority Pass has access generally to The Club lounges.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon May 07, 2018 12:09 am

jbs2886 wrote:

Priority Pass has access generally to The Club lounges.


I'll take any one of them at this point. We'll be flying biz class roundtrip to LHR on BA next Summer, and I was planning to use the third party lounge that has been advertised since the first schematics came out of the airport terminal. I'm hoping the addition of the United Club didn't scare off any prospective third party lounge operators. Maybe we can get someone on this board to convince AA they need to open a lounge too. ;)
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 09, 2018 7:21 am

UK CAA reported March figures. The BA flight had 7,923 total pax and a load factor of 80.5% assuming 788 seat count. A good month for the route.

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/ ... alysis.pdf
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu May 10, 2018 11:54 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
UK CAA reported March figures. The BA flight had 7,923 total pax and a load factor of 80.5% assuming 788 seat count. A good month for the route.

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/ ... alysis.pdf


Do you think that if Thomas Cook announced rumored service at MSY in 2019 from MAN with the A330's that are based there, that BA will increase frequencies and/or gauge???
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 1:58 am

SNN707 wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
UK CAA reported March figures. The BA flight had 7,923 total pax and a load factor of 80.5% assuming 788 seat count. A good month for the route.

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/ ... alysis.pdf


Do you think that if Thomas Cook announced rumored service at MSY in 2019 from MAN with the A330's that are based there, that BA will increase frequencies and/or gauge???

Well, that's what happened when AUS got competition from the UK... but I guess it just depends on how they see the market.

I sincerely doubt MSY would be getting a 744, but an upgauge to a 789 or 3-class 77E wouldn't be surprising.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 5:01 am

Someone posted this on another forum, and thought I would share.

Image

This looks like the overall master plan for the airport. A CONRAC would be built to the west of the new terminal where the existing FBO/general aviation is located. The existing CONRAC would be converted over to additional parking. The FBO/general aviation area would move to the southside of the airport grounds where part of the existing terminal is currently. The existing terminal will be mostly demolished before the FBO moves there. Also plans to add a new taxiway for RWY 11/29 access. New cargo handling areas also planned along with an intermodal/corporate park. I also see that a commuter rail station could be added, if that ever got started.

Glad to see there are plans to build a new CONRAC closer to the new terminal.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 5:46 am

Also, the airport board approved issuing $210,000,000 dollars in bonds for a new consolidated parking garage last month. Guessing this is likely related to the CONRAC.
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 4:58 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Someone posted this on another forum, and thought I would share.

Image

This looks like the overall master plan for the airport. A CONRAC would be built to the west of the new terminal where the existing FBO/general aviation is located. The existing CONRAC would be converted over to additional parking. The FBO/general aviation area would move to the southside of the airport grounds where part of the existing terminal is currently. The existing terminal will be mostly demolished before the FBO moves there. Also plans to add a new taxiway for RWY 11/29 access. New cargo handling areas also planned along with an intermodal/corporate park. I also see that a commuter rail station could be added, if that ever got started.

Glad to see there are plans to build a new CONRAC closer to the new terminal.


That third finger doesn't make sense as it shows a much thicker Concourse A to connect the two. Also i can't imagine the terminal itself supporting all those additional gates when it comes to checkin, bag claim, security, and landside dropoff.

I can totally see a smaller terminal to the west supporting maybe 10-15 gates, possibly a dedicated international terminal with reversible domestic gates that has drive up landside, with a post security connector to A. But that would be at least 10 years at least.
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 5:15 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Also, the airport board approved issuing $210,000,000 dollars in bonds for a new consolidated parking garage last month. Guessing this is likely related to the CONRAC.


They are also going to need a wad of cash to redevelop the ST area, including demolition.
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 5:24 pm

SNN707 wrote:
NolaMD88fan wrote:
Someone posted this on another forum, and thought I would share.

Image

This looks like the overall master plan for the airport. A CONRAC would be built to the west of the new terminal where the existing FBO/general aviation is located. The existing CONRAC would be converted over to additional parking. The FBO/general aviation area would move to the southside of the airport grounds where part of the existing terminal is currently. The existing terminal will be mostly demolished before the FBO moves there. Also plans to add a new taxiway for RWY 11/29 access. New cargo handling areas also planned along with an intermodal/corporate park. I also see that a commuter rail station could be added, if that ever got started.

Glad to see there are plans to build a new CONRAC closer to the new terminal.


That third finger doesn't make sense as it shows a much thicker Concourse A to connect the two. Also i can't imagine the terminal itself supporting all those additional gates when it comes to checkin, bag claim, security, and landside dropoff.

I can totally see a smaller terminal to the west supporting maybe 10-15 gates, possibly a dedicated international terminal with reversible domestic gates that has drive up landside, with a post security connector to A. But that would be at least 10 years at least.


Yeah I think that graphic is mostly conjecture, albeit based on what some officials and news reports have said. I don't see an additional large concourse to the west working given that the security, check-in, drop off, and baggage areas will already be nearing their design capacities. The original plans were based off of projections of hitting 10 million passengers in 2018 and 2% growth per year. We surpassed 10M by a lot in 2015, on track for 13 this year with well over 10% growth so far. It would also be a very long walk if they didn't build an additional terminal to go with an extension to the west.

Logically they would have left room to add 5-7 gates to the east mirroring concourse A, but some people are saying that won't be possible. It really seems to me that it was a short-sighted design that didn't leave much room for growth. Now that being said, officials kept saying that it would be expandable to 42 gates, so I hope there is a plan we don't know about.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 9:18 pm

msycajun wrote:
It really seems to me that it was a short-sighted design that didn't leave much room for growth.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Airport staff routinely ridicule the idea (one, obnoxiously so)....

...but fugg'em, I still say that (barring a market shock, oil spike or major disaster) they're going to be retroactively using the current Concourse D for routine ops again.

Make fun of it all you'd like, but I'm not doubting it.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 11, 2018 10:59 pm

This sketch of the plans is based off the last publicly available master plan in 2014. At that time the plan was to build only two concourses, have the public parking deck to the west instead of the North, and have a hotel to the north. The hotel has been scrapped, the public garage moved to the hotel spot, and surface lots added both east and west of the terminal. The new A wing has also been added. I do think a mirrored concourse A extension as shown will eventually be needed. There are 17 security lanes planned which should be fine for our traffic levels. ATL has 27 lanes for perspective.
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 4:02 am

LAX772LR wrote:
msycajun wrote:
It really seems to me that it was a short-sighted design that didn't leave much room for growth.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Airport staff routinely ridicule the idea (one, obnoxiously so)....

...but fugg'em, I still say that (barring a market shock, oil spike or major disaster) they're going to be retroactively using the current Concourse D for routine ops again.

Make fun of it all you'd like, but I'm not doubting it.

....fully agree. If at some point more gates are needed - I could see a ULCC do it like Spirit if they need a core of gates that something like current D can handle. Spirit's clientele by nature are not on expense accts and dont really need the offerings of the NT. Theyre budget conscious. You could even do intl flights but a sterile connector would be necessary for the gates on the north side of D to the current FIS area. But its a long way off.
 
Nola
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 4:10 am

LAX772LR wrote:
msycajun wrote:
It really seems to me that it was a short-sighted design that didn't leave much room for growth.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:

Airport staff routinely ridicule the idea (one, obnoxiously so)....

...but fugg'em, I still say that (barring a market shock, oil spike or major disaster) they're going to be retroactively using the current Concourse D for routine ops again.

Make fun of it all you'd like, but I'm not doubting it.



Southwest would likely want to move to D and have a terminal all to itself. There are actually rumors that Southwest would prefer not to move to the new terminal at all.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 5:36 am

Found out that the 210 million dollar bond issuance approved in April will be for a 7 floor parking structure on the east side of the new terminal. So, two big garages and a surface lot will be available to park at. This should resolve the parking concerns experienced during peak periods the last few years. Also means that those renting cars will still have a long shuttle ride ahead of them.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 5:41 am

There is a "plan" that offers an additional 6 or so gates on another, smaller, finger concourse at the end of A. It's kind of like the picture above, but it's thinner than B and C, and would only have gates pointed at B. I'd say that it's a "design study" that has been blueprinted if needed. Of course, the airport still has it's plans for an additional north-south runway out at the end of the East-West runway in the swamp too, for what that's worth. That's still at least a decade or more away, if ever.

In a related note, construction work has commenced on increasing the vehicle capacity at the Loyola Dr. and I-10 interchange. Additional turning lanes on Loyola have been added, as well as additional capacity between Loyola and Veterans Blvd on the south bound side (working on 3 lanes instead of 2). It's a start, but, it'll still be rather badly over capacity at opening.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 5:54 am

Nola wrote:
Southwest would likely want to move to D and have a terminal all to itself. There are actually rumors that Southwest would prefer not to move to the new terminal at all.


Given that Southwest as a signatory carrier has had direct input into the design of the new terminal, I find it hard to believe they are not interested in moving. All of the airlines will be operating out of the new terminal come 2/20/19.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 5:57 am

LightningZ71 wrote:
There is a "plan" that offers an additional 6 or so gates on another, smaller, finger concourse at the end of A. It's kind of like the picture above, but it's thinner than B and C, and would only have gates pointed at B. I'd say that it's a "design study" that has been blueprinted if needed. Of course, the airport still has it's plans for an additional north-south runway out at the end of the East-West runway in the swamp too, for what that's worth. That's still at least a decade or more away, if ever.

In a related note, construction work has commenced on increasing the vehicle capacity at the Loyola Dr. and I-10 interchange. Additional turning lanes on Loyola have been added, as well as additional capacity between Loyola and Veterans Blvd on the south bound side (working on 3 lanes instead of 2). It's a start, but, it'll still be rather badly over capacity at opening.


That makes sense in terms of extending A with a finger pier. They could always extend further to the west from A if needed in the long term (20+ years).
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 2:13 pm

Several thoughts:
It would make sense to put an FIS into the current concourse D, especially if they are planning to use it for charters. If MSY has more of those days with 4-5 widebodies from Europe as cruise charters, there wouldn't be enough room in the NT, especially if AM and MT are coming. Same for diversions. There's room for what, 2 international widebodies/3 narrow?

As others have said Southwest was involved in the planning - actually a WN employee was/is chair of the steering committee, so I don't see them staying in the south terminal. I could see the ULCCs moving there if there ends up being a lack of space.

More parking is probably a good thing, but again too little to late. Better planning would have been to build a larger and taller garage in the first place - 2000 spaces is clearly inadequate. At this rate it would almost be better to rely more on ST parking as that would mean fewer cars needing to use the Loyola exits.

Another small "finger" from A seems again to be bad design. It would be a very long walk from security and most of the amenities unless they build an additional terminal area to go with it. Shifting the whole thing west and leaving room for a D concourse would have been a better plan. It might even be more convenient to keep part of the south terminal rather than do that.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Sun May 13, 2018 8:33 pm

msycajun wrote:
It would make sense to put an FIS into the current concourse D, especially if they are planning to use it for charters. If MSY has more of those days with 4-5 widebodies from Europe as cruise charters, there wouldn't be enough room in the NT

Doubt the cost of that could ever be justified, due to the low frequency of such use (there's what, 2-3 times per year, when flocks of Euro-charters arrive more than one at a time?)

They'll probably just dump their inbound arrivals at A-north, then tow to D-south.
They tend to arrive in the early afternoon, so isn't likely to interfere with BA or DE.

Fortunately, it seems like it won't take much cost/effort at all to extend the swing-gate capability for the entire length of concourse A as currently designed, granting up to 5 int'l gates.

I'm confounded as to why they're not doing it from the start, seeing as the new terminal will leave the airport with less int'l capable gates than it currently has.
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon May 14, 2018 5:16 am

msycajun wrote:
Several thoughts:
It would make sense to put an FIS into the current concourse D, especially if they are planning to use it for charters. If MSY has more of those days with 4-5 widebodies from Europe as cruise charters, there wouldn't be enough room in the NT, especially if AM and MT are coming. Same for diversions. There's room for what, 2 international widebodies/3 narrow?

As others have said Southwest was involved in the planning - actually a WN employee was/is chair of the steering committee, so I don't see them staying in the south terminal. I could see the ULCCs moving there if there ends up being a lack of space.

More parking is probably a good thing, but again too little to late. Better planning would have been to build a larger and taller garage in the first place - 2000 spaces is clearly inadequate. At this rate it would almost be better to rely more on ST parking as that would mean fewer cars needing to use the Loyola exits.

Another small "finger" from A seems again to be bad design. It would be a very long walk from security and most of the amenities unless they build an additional terminal area to go with it. Shifting the whole thing west and leaving room for a D concourse would have been a better plan. It might even be more convenient to keep part of the south terminal rather than do that.


I think when the NT was envisioned originally, it was a modern replacement for the ST with a modest cushion for growth. Its painfully apparent that given the strong growth since then, there is very little cushion anymore without stretching terminal capacities.

So 5-10 years out from now, we're looking at some kind of new terminal necessary with landside access, security, bag claim, etc. We have that in old D that can be a bridge to a more permanent solution on the north side, whatever that is.

I'm wondering if that mothballed tunnel can be rehabbed in a way that it can be used for commercial airside vehicles only (such as terminal transfer buses, bag transfers, etc) similar to the one at LHR. I can't see old D working any other way without an airside connection. It's not rocket science, getting that tunnel to work for such a purpose. Nothing is going to happen till the FBO's have moved to the south - maybe the interim will be remote stands with boarding buses. I can't imagine that somewhere there is not a very conceptual sketch of 2040.
 
LightningZ71
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon May 14, 2018 6:04 am

The tunnel under the runway hasn't been maintained beyond any requirements to keep the runway stable. To make it usable would be a very expensive undertaking.

Given the current finances of the project, they would more than likely start making use of Concourse D again before doing any further extensions to the new Terminal complex. Concourse D has ticketing and baggage claim all integrated with it and is rather more modernized as compared to the rest of the current building. I could definitely see a world where the big 3 and southwest consume almost all of the new complex and the ULCC/LCCs and smaller carriers are all relegated to D. Most of them don't interline much with the big carriers, making there very little need for passengers to get to the new terminal. The vendors at the new terminal won't care as the remaining traffic will still be in excess of the initial project expectations.

As I understand it, there are no plans to handle international arrivals at Concourse D. Any international arrivals will be going to A, unless they are pre-cleared. The FIS in new A is of a more modern design than the one in the ST. While it may be physically smaller, it will move more passengers in the same amount of time. It is also far more capable of supporting the new automated systems that are being implemented by US Customs (&BP for the sticklers) in other airports around the country which will have a big impact on passenger throughput. In short, don't worry about FIS. If the airport needs more international gates, the pathway to doing that is comparatively simple.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 am

LightningZ71 wrote:
The tunnel under the runway hasn't been maintained beyond any requirements to keep the runway stable. To make it usable would be a very expensive undertaking.

Given the current finances of the project, they would more than likely start making use of Concourse D again before doing any further extensions to the new Terminal complex. Concourse D has ticketing and baggage claim all integrated with it and is rather more modernized as compared to the rest of the current building. I could definitely see a world where the big 3 and southwest consume almost all of the new complex and the ULCC/LCCs and smaller carriers are all relegated to D. Most of them don't interline much with the big carriers, making there very little need for passengers to get to the new terminal. The vendors at the new terminal won't care as the remaining traffic will still be in excess of the initial project expectations.

As I understand it, there are no plans to handle international arrivals at Concourse D. Any international arrivals will be going to A, unless they are pre-cleared. The FIS in new A is of a more modern design than the one in the ST. While it may be physically smaller, it will move more passengers in the same amount of time. It is also far more capable of supporting the new automated systems that are being implemented by US Customs (&BP for the sticklers) in other airports around the country which will have a big impact on passenger throughput. In short, don't worry about FIS. If the airport needs more international gates, the pathway to doing that is comparatively simple.


Yup...I don't think we'll ever see that tunnel used.

If there is no room for G4, F9, and SY in the NT in a few years, the current concourse D is the perfect spot for them. Very comparable to the setup in AUS right now. Those carriers will likely never fly any international routes from MSY, so the need won't be there for a FIS facility. NK however I think would end up staying in the NT since they are a signatory carrier, and could potentially fly some international routes in the future. B6 and AS have interline/codeshare agreements, so I see them staying in the NT long term.

I'm looking forward to using the new FIS next Summer. Figuring it will be similar to the YYZ pre-check with passport kiosks to speed up the process.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Mon May 14, 2018 12:59 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
LightningZ71 wrote:
The tunnel under the runway hasn't been maintained beyond any requirements to keep the runway stable. To make it usable would be a very expensive undertaking.

Given the current finances of the project, they would more than likely start making use of Concourse D again before doing any further extensions to the new Terminal complex. Concourse D has ticketing and baggage claim all integrated with it and is rather more modernized as compared to the rest of the current building. I could definitely see a world where the big 3 and southwest consume almost all of the new complex and the ULCC/LCCs and smaller carriers are all relegated to D. Most of them don't interline much with the big carriers, making there very little need for passengers to get to the new terminal. The vendors at the new terminal won't care as the remaining traffic will still be in excess of the initial project expectations.

As I understand it, there are no plans to handle international arrivals at Concourse D. Any international arrivals will be going to A, unless they are pre-cleared. The FIS in new A is of a more modern design than the one in the ST. While it may be physically smaller, it will move more passengers in the same amount of time. It is also far more capable of supporting the new automated systems that are being implemented by US Customs (&BP for the sticklers) in other airports around the country which will have a big impact on passenger throughput. In short, don't worry about FIS. If the airport needs more international gates, the pathway to doing that is comparatively simple.


Yup...I don't think we'll ever see that tunnel used.

If there is no room for G4, F9, and SY in the NT in a few years, the current concourse D is the perfect spot for them. Very comparable to the setup in AUS right now. Those carriers will likely never fly any international routes from MSY, so the need won't be there for a FIS facility. NK however I think would end up staying in the NT since they are a signatory carrier, and could potentially fly some international routes in the future. B6 and AS have interline/codeshare agreements, so I see them staying in the NT long term.

I'm looking forward to using the new FIS next Summer. Figuring it will be similar to the YYZ pre-check with passport kiosks to speed up the process.



Also as far as international goes I expect some more preclearance destinations to be added... one we know of for sure that we serve is Punta Cana.. so theat will be one less flight the airport needs to service as international too .. i think the concern off the airport running out of interational space is less pressing than just running out of space... yesterday after landing and walking through terminal b the place was busting out of the seems... seemed almost too many people and the tsa line was ridiculously long
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 12:09 am

Was driving down the MSY access road about 30min ago (18.30), and noticed an ARFF truck and lots of flashing lights by a Maddog/717/etc (too hard to tell), looked like it was on the taxiway right by the end of B.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 7:32 am

November 2017 international pax and load factors by route, and February 2018 domestic pas and load factors by route caculated.

On the international side, AC saw a sharp decline of nearly 5% in pax and load factors from 2016 with a load factor of 74.2% on the YYZ route in November. This continues a trend of lower numbers for all of Fall. Could be a stronger US dollar or less Europe bound transfer pax now that BA is flying to LHR. We'll see if the trend continues. Year to date numbers are still solid with a 83.3% load factor on the route.

BA had a full month of flying 5x weekly, and the loads were a solid 76.1%. Year to date is at 77.1%. CM saw a gain in pax and load factors from 2016. Pax numbers were up nearly 7% on a 5% increase in seats, and loads increased by 1.2% to 74.1%. Year to date loads are at 76.7% through November for CM. Overall, the international load factor for all non-stop routes in November was 75.2% and pax traffic grew by 118% thanks to the BA flight. The year to date load factor for all international non-stop routes 78.6%.

Domestically, the overall load factor for the airport in February was 80.9%. This was a 2.8% increase over 2017, and that is impressive as overall seat count grew by 14.4%. Pax count increased by 18.4% year over year. The year to date load factor was 78.5%.

AS's MSY-SEA route had the highest load factor in February at 92.4%. WN's MSY-CMH route had the lowest load factor at 59.4%. DL started flying to SEA and BOS on a limited basis. The SEA route did very well with a 90.7% load factor. BOS had a lower load factor of 76.3%, but this is decent given the time of year and two other carriers flying this route. Year to date, WN's MSY-DEN route had the highest load factor at 92.4%, and NK's MSY-BOS route had the lowest load factor at 53.0%.

(Domestic)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_XIgbK86N2kPFUiFgeyVdPNanrB2qatLCIShRtCRLs/edit?usp=sharing

(International)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yepoGdibyiVsViWrjIcouvFnmdUNzhYuBiOo9bBPV8Y/edit?usp=sharing
 
Nola
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 2:47 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
November 2017 international pax and load factors by route, and February 2018 domestic pas and load factors by route caculated.

On the international side, AC saw a sharp decline of nearly 5% in pax and load factors from 2016 with a load factor of 74.2% on the YYZ route in November. This continues a trend of lower numbers for all of Fall. Could be a stronger US dollar or less Europe bound transfer pax now that BA is flying to LHR. We'll see if the trend continues. Year to date numbers are still solid with a 83.3% load factor on the route.

BA had a full month of flying 5x weekly, and the loads were a solid 76.1%. Year to date is at 77.1%. CM saw a gain in pax and load factors from 2016. Pax numbers were up nearly 7% on a 5% increase in seats, and loads increased by 1.2% to 74.1%. Year to date loads are at 76.7% through November for CM. Overall, the international load factor for all non-stop routes in November was 75.2% and pax traffic grew by 118% thanks to the BA flight. The year to date load factor for all international non-stop routes 78.6%.

Domestically, the overall load factor for the airport in February was 80.9%. This was a 2.8% increase over 2017, and that is impressive as overall seat count grew by 14.4%. Pax count increased by 18.4% year over year. The year to date load factor was 78.5%.

AS's MSY-SEA route had the highest load factor in February at 92.4%. WN's MSY-CMH route had the lowest load factor at 59.4%. DL started flying to SEA and BOS on a limited basis. The SEA route did very well with a 90.7% load factor. BOS had a lower load factor of 76.3%, but this is decent given the time of year and two other carriers flying this route. Year to date, WN's MSY-DEN route had the highest load factor at 92.4%, and NK's MSY-BOS route had the lowest load factor at 53.0%.

(Domestic)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J_XIgbK86N2kPFUiFgeyVdPNanrB2qatLCIShRtCRLs/edit?usp=sharing

(International)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yepoGdibyiVsViWrjIcouvFnmdUNzhYuBiOo9bBPV8Y/edit?usp=sharing


With this indicate that delta would be successful running to Seattle beyond the weekend?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 4:37 pm

It looks like the potential is there, but likely dependent on yields which is info we don't have.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 4:45 pm

Nola wrote:
With this indicate that delta would be successful running to Seattle beyond the weekend?

Not enough info to definitively say.

The loads are nice, but we don't know the fare yield, nor the opportunity cost.

It's probably a good sign though, as DL likely would not have bothered with it in the first place if they didn't feel that they could charge reasonable fares.
 
Nola
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 5:36 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Nola wrote:
With this indicate that delta would be successful running to Seattle beyond the weekend?

Not enough info to definitively say.

The loads are nice, but we don't know the fare yield, nor the opportunity cost.

It's probably a good sign though, as DL likely would not have bothered with it in the first place if they didn't feel that they could charge reasonable fares.


As oil prices rise, there might actually be less demand. Louisiana supplies a lot of oilfield workers to Alaska. I think 14 on 14 off, but I could be wrong. If those workers can get jobs in the Gulf with increased drilling, they wouldn't need to go to Alaska.
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 10:58 pm

G4 recently updated their schedule through FEB 19 and MSY has had a lot of routes cut that were previously scheduled to run into the fall/winter:

CVG- Continues 2/3 weekly through FEB
CLE- Through July
LCK - CUT
USA - continues through FEB, suspended late AUG/SEPT
SFB - CUT
IND - CUT
PIT - Through early AUG
RDU - through FEB, suspended late AUG/SEPT

I don't mind seeing LCK cut if it helps NK at CMH, same with CLE, SFB, and PIE, but PIT and IND are surprising to see not running in the fall (they may even be permanently discontinued). Perhaps these are opportunities for WN/DL/NK.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 11:36 pm

I’ve heard that NK is reducing CLE to twice-weekly at some point over the next few months.

Let’s face it - with only a couple of exceptions - G4 has been a bust here.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Tue May 15, 2018 11:44 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
I’ve heard that NK is reducing CLE to twice-weekly at some point over the next few months.

Let’s face it - with only a couple of exceptions - G4 has been a bust here.


Connections through ATL are so easy, plus DL is charging very competitive fares on routes like IND-MSY
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 16, 2018 3:38 am

Midwestindy wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
Let’s face it - with only a couple of exceptions - G4 has been a bust here.

Connections through ATL are so easy, plus DL is charging very competitive fares on routes like IND-MSY

What I've consistently heard is that many of the local hotels don't want to play ball with G4 on rates, in the same way that LAS/ORL do.

Tough for them to get the pricing on the packages they offer, if they can only rely on the excess capacity from national chain hotels.

That, and I'm shocked by just how many non-av NOLA people I've run into, know about their worrisome maintenance record. Granted, I'd never set foot on them, and I've warned my friends/family never to as well; but (anecdotal as it may be) it seems to go far beyond my little circle of acquaintance. Interesting.
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 16, 2018 5:27 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
Let’s face it - with only a couple of exceptions - G4 has been a bust here.

Connections through ATL are so easy, plus DL is charging very competitive fares on routes like IND-MSY

What I've consistently heard is that many of the local hotels don't want to play ball with G4 on rates, in the same way that LAS/ORL do.

Tough for them to get the pricing on the packages they offer, if they can only rely on the excess capacity from national chain hotels.

That, and I'm shocked by just how many non-av NOLA people I've run into, know about their worrisome maintenance record. Granted, I'd never set foot on them, and I've warned my friends/family never to as well; but (anecdotal as it may be) it seems to go far beyond my little circle of acquaintance. Interesting.


You cant develop routes by throwing them on a wall and see if they will stick and bailing on them in a second. G4 seems to have a poor ops record and I cant justify flying on them until that improves substantially. The route network is a true mishmash. The MegaBus of the skies.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 16, 2018 6:42 am

Not surprised by these G4 cuts at all. Loads were never good on most of the routes. NK is definitely the winner in the ULCC battle at MSY. The majority of the routes started recently are doing well for them.

In terms of CLE, I'm still a bit surprised at how poorly it has done for NK. Perhaps G4 potentially cutting the route will give the NK flight a boost.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 16, 2018 1:50 pm

i really dont understand allegiants business model outside of orlando and las vegas.. plus your right at how many people talk about their maintenance issues.. definitely more mainstream than you would think
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 16, 2018 1:52 pm

msycajun wrote:
G4 recently updated their schedule through FEB 19 and MSY has had a lot of routes cut that were previously scheduled to run into the fall/winter:



I don't mind seeing LCK cut if it helps NK at CMH, same with CLE, SFB, and PIE, but PIT and IND are surprising to see not running in the fall (they may even be permanently discontinued). Perhaps these are opportunities for WN/DL/NK.



Id rather see another airline enter these routes and develop them.. allegiant just doesnt work for me!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu May 17, 2018 1:31 am

http://www.nola.com/travel/index.ssf/20 ... outes.html

"Spokeswoman Krysta Levy confirmed nonstops from Louis Armstrong International Airport to St. Petersburg, Florida, and to Sanford, Florida, "are suspended right now with no immediate plans for return."
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu May 17, 2018 2:00 am

NK and WN flying daily to TPA and MCO was the likely cause of these cuts.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu May 17, 2018 8:38 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
NK and WN flying daily to TPA and MCO was the likely cause of these cuts.


Yeah i have no idea why with those two choices anyone would fly allegiant~!
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Thu May 17, 2018 8:57 pm

Silver Airways flights going to Branson.. surely this must be setting the stage for NOLA to be a connecting point to other destinations and not just a NOLA to Branson flight ?
 
SNN707
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 18, 2018 1:16 am

DJSNOLA wrote:
Silver Airways flights going to Branson.. surely this must be setting the stage for NOLA to be a connecting point to other destinations and not just a NOLA to Branson flight ?


The flight will operate in a seperate network. You can book NOLA-Houston with a stop in Branson. Hopefully they will run a flight to Orlando to connect with their Florida network.
 
DJSNOLA
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Fri May 18, 2018 7:43 pm

SNN707 wrote:
DJSNOLA wrote:
Silver Airways flights going to Branson.. surely this must be setting the stage for NOLA to be a connecting point to other destinations and not just a NOLA to Branson flight ?


The flight will operate in a seperate network. You can book NOLA-Houston with a stop in Branson. Hopefully they will run a flight to Orlando to connect with their Florida network.


ok just seems strange to me the set up now so i presume this is setting the stage for their growth outside florida.. who do they have codeshares with?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 23, 2018 6:42 am

The airport set a new passenger record in March with 1,205,630 passengers recorded. NK and WN appear to the major drivers behind this growth. http://www.flymsy.com/Files/Newsletter/ ... xFINAL.pdf

http://www.flymsy.com/Files/Press/March ... istics.pdf

The airport was 38th busiest in the nation through the 1st quarter of the year falling between HOU and SJC.

Airport.......March............YTD
HOU.......1,247,293.....3,331,068
MSY........1,205,630.....3,159,342
SJC.........1,113,879.....3,054,896

http://www.fly2houston.com/newsroom/med ... tatistics/
https://www.flysanjose.com/financial-reports
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 23, 2018 3:59 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
The airport set a new passenger record in March with 1,205,630 passengers recorded. NK and WN appear to the major drivers behind this growth.


The press release gave a pretty strong shout-out to NK. More to come?

It will be interesting to see if this growth or anything near it can be sustained. We haven't had anything major announced for the rest of the year and F9/G4 have cut back a bit for the rest of the year. Even if it is not quite as high of a growth rate, MSY appears poised to surpass OAK, HOU, and eventually STL and DAL given the current trends. SJC, AUS, BNA would be harder to catch.

Notable too that LFs are trending upward even with the new capacity, so that would suggests there is room for more flights.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 23, 2018 6:06 pm

Would love to see NK start up some international routes. SAP would be popular with the large central American population here.
 
msycajun
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Re: The MSY Thread - 2018

Wed May 23, 2018 6:39 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Would love to see NK start up some international routes. SAP would be popular with the large central American population here.


I agree and hope someone is working on it. NK in 2014 tried to make IAH its secondary international hub, but that didn't pan out due to competition. I think MSY would do a lot better because of incentives and lack of competition. MSY already has nearly as many departures as IAH, so connectivity is there and there seems to be room to add a few more domestic dots and frequency to a few routes.

Looking back the IAH ops included
Cancun, Mexico (3 weekly flights begin May 7; service becomes daily on June 11)
- Los Cabos, Mexico (2 weekly flights begin May 7, grows to 4 weekly flights by June 11)
- Managua, Nicaragua (3 weekly flights begin May 28)
- San Jose, Costa Rica (4 weekly flights begin May 28)
- San Pedro Sula, Honduras (3 weekly flights begin May 28)
- San Salvador, El Sal Salvador (4 weekly flights begin May 28)
- Toluca/Mexico City (2 weekly flights begin May 7, grows to 3 weekly flights by June 11)

I think SAP, MBJ, PUJ, and SJO, maybe also SJD, all 2-4 weekly would make a nice focus city for them. I'd leave MEX to AM

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