cvgComair, you are always persuasive with the data and stats. I only hope you are correct when it comes to sustainability but I’m still skeptical that a market the size of CVG can have 5 carriers successfully running flights to, for example, DEN long term. Some will get shaken out of those markets when and if the likes of WN or DL decide they want that market ( either as new service or restoration of old).

The guys making the decisions at WN and DL and the others, as is usually the case, won’t make hasty decisions but rely on the data and capacities they have. I really do hope I’m wrong. More choices is always better for CVG.

Also, it doesn't seem like WN wants to be in over saturated Florida markets. For example, CVG-ORL is already served on DL, F9, and G4. 2 ULCC's alone would deter WN from doing CVG-MCO because of the amount of service CVG already is offered to ORL.

jph7291 wrote:

No chatbot could remember a Frontier billboard on the Norwood Lateral.

That was something that I noticed as well. He pm’d me so I think he’s real.

GSM605 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.

I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.

Any WN adds are going to almost have to be to stations they can push connections through. That probably rules out BOS as they aren't going to be able to push many on either end. If they add STL, I have a feeling DL will end the route, they can just push their connections through CVG to DTW or ATL. DL has lowered their prices on STL-CVG lately though (almost in half) so I am going to be curious if that helps passenger counts. Maybe this was done preemptively. LAS/PHX-year round make a lot of sense to me. Maybe HOU if they want to get traffic flowing to Mexico. DAL if they can find a spot for it, although I am under the impression it is a lot of O&D these days instead of connecting. DEN I think will have to come eventually but as mentioned it has 4 carriers on it already, which makes it tough.

Sidenote: My other half is flying to YYZ in a couple weeks and YYZ-CVG-STL came up as the first option when she was booking the return yesterday (not counting AC nonstops). She ended up booking it. It is good to see CVG popping up on some routes from STL to/from the east. We also have some friends in Toronto that book through CVG at times also when coming back to STL. Hopefully better connections can help the numbers on the route. I would like to see that route stick around as it makes it easy to fan out to the east coast from it.

Using the list of hubs and focus cities on Wikipedia for WN and excluding BWI, MDW, and PHX, here's what the competition would be:

Atlanta- DL, F9. No way DL doesn't defend it furiously.
Dallas–Love- AA, DL, F9 (via DFW) (Don't start jplatts, we know all the factors which could support CVG-DAL)
Denver- G4, DL, F9, UA
Houston–Hobby- DL, UA (Don't start jplatts, we know all the factors which could support CVG-HOU)
Las Vegas- G4, DL, F9
Oakland- DL, UA (via SFO), F9 (via SJC)
Orlando- DL, F9, G4 (via SFB)

Austin- G4, DL, F9
Fort Lauderdale- G4, DL
Los Angeles- G4, DL, F9
Nashville- DL
Sacramento- Probably too thin.
San Diego- F9
San Jose (CA)- DL, UA (via SFO), F9
St. Louis- DL
Tampa- DL, F9, G4 (via PIE)

It's the drawback to somehow having three focus cities. They're boxed in everywhere with sometimes four airlines, which is remarkable. BNA and STL might make sense, but would you want that if DL potentially threw in the towel in exchange?

flymco753 wrote:

Also, it doesn't seem like WN wants to be in over saturated Florida markets. For example, CVG-ORL is already served on DL, F9, and G4. 2 ULCC's alone would deter WN from doing CVG-MCO because of the amount of service CVG already is offered to ORL.

Here are the pax numbers for November 2016 – October 2017 to MCO/SFB:
PIT/LBE: 310,000
IND: 244,000
CVG: 218,000
CMH: 208,000

As for CMH, NK is entering as the 3rd LCC on the route, plus WN is scheduling 5x/day on the route this year. That is a very big jump in capacity and will surpass the CVG-MCO pax numbers. That is a significantly smaller amount of seats on CVG-MCO, which makes me think that WN could make 1x/day work, at least seasonally.

DeltaRules wrote:

Using the list of hubs and focus cities on Wikipedia for WN and excluding BWI, MDW, and PHX, here's what the competition would be:

Atlanta- DL, F9. No way DL doesn't defend it furiously.
Dallas–Love- AA, DL, F9 (via DFW) (Don't start jplatts, we know all the factors which could support CVG-DAL)
Denver- G4, DL, F9, UA
Houston–Hobby- DL, UA (Don't start jplatts, we know all the factors which could support CVG-HOU)
Las Vegas- G4, DL, F9
Oakland- DL, UA (via SFO), F9 (via SJC)
Orlando- DL, F9, G4 (via SFB)

Austin- G4, DL, F9
Fort Lauderdale- G4, DL
Los Angeles- G4, DL, F9
Nashville- DL
Sacramento- Probably too thin.
San Diego- F9
San Jose (CA)- DL, UA (via SFO), F9
St. Louis- DL
Tampa- DL, F9, G4 (via PIE)

It's the drawback to somehow having three focus cities. They're boxed in everywhere with sometimes four airlines, which is remarkable. BNA and STL might make sense, but would you want that if DL potentially threw in the towel in exchange?

Thanks for putting this together! One thing I notice is that CVG may have more carriers per route, but on many of these routes, there are still less seats than peer airports. I imagine WN gets some more pax on these flights as a result of connections/stronger loyalty base/etc. I think many of the routes like PHX/LAS/DEN/MCO/TPA could work on a highly seasonal schedule. Sort of like the 1-month of CVG-PHX, perhaps they could be operating MDW/BWI at a reduced schedule, while only operating 1 or 2 extra routes at any given time of the year to match peak demand.

GSM605 wrote:

cvgComair, you are always persuasive with the data and stats. I only hope you are correct when it comes to sustainability but I’m still skeptical that a market the size of CVG can have 5 carriers successfully running flights to, for example, DEN long term. Some will get shaken out of those markets when and if the likes of WN or DL decide they want that market ( either as new service or restoration of old).

The guys making the decisions at WN and DL and the others, as is usually the case, won’t make hasty decisions but rely on the data and capacities they have. I really do hope I’m wrong. More choices is always better for CVG.

I agree that the long-term outlook will probably not have all these carriers on every route. Right now the LCC's are exploding because of cheap fuel, a strong economy, higher wages. The next time the economy struggles, many of these LCC's are going to be hurting and the cycle is going to start all over again. I think DL had every intention of fully dropping CVG in 2020 when the leases expire, but the resurgence of the economy has changed that course. All airports are seeing record amounts of passengers because people have the money to spend. I hate to be negative, but some of these airlines are going to be hurting on the next economic downturn. I think many of them have learned from 9/11 and '08/'09, so it probably won't be quite as dramatic, but certainly G4 would have trouble filling its daily CVG-SAV flight and DL will not have 3xB738 to MCO.

cvgComair wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Also, it doesn't seem like WN wants to be in over saturated Florida markets. For example, CVG-ORL is already served on DL, F9, and G4. 2 ULCC's alone would deter WN from doing CVG-MCO because of the amount of service CVG already is offered to ORL.

Here are the pax numbers for November 2016 – October 2017 to MCO/SFB:
PIT/LBE: 310,000
IND: 244,000
CVG: 218,000
CMH: 208,000

As for CMH, NK is entering as the 3rd LCC on the route, plus WN is scheduling 5x/day on the route this year. That is a very big jump in capacity and will surpass the CVG-MCO pax numbers. That is a significantly smaller amount of seats on CVG-MCO, which makes me think that WN could make 1x/day work, at least seasonally.

DL also runs CMH-MCO on Saturdays with an E175. Somebody in the last thread found 11 Columbus-Orlando flights on one Saturday between CMH/LCK and MCO/SFB in March.

cledaybuck wrote:

GSM605 wrote:

DeltaRules wrote:

The problem for WN is nearly every route they could serve already has 2-3 airlines on it. I'd agree with them setting up shop with BWI/MDW/PHX/DEN/MCO/LAS in the first few years and seeing how things play out. Had they beaten F9 and/or G4 to the punch, they might've had more room to grow. LGA won't happen because of slots; they want to start CMH-LGA but can't for that reason. For as big a station as it is, CMH only has seasonal HOU service.

I was about to post a similar sentiment. I wonder if WN is kicking themselves for not committing to CVG earlier? Had they made the move earlier, I could see CVG having DEN, LAS, Florida routes and others on WN. Now, they are in the same boat as DL. They are adding (or would be adding in the case of WN) routes as a reaction to what others are already doing. In other words they are in a position of chasing other carriers off to establish themselves rather than bringing something new to the table.

So where could WN go? Maybe DAL. Maybe STL (but I wonder if there is sufficient traffic to justify such a route). BOS? That would be interesting but you are going head to head with DL. Is Delta expensive on that route? It seems all the other cities being bandied about have service on those routes (including OAK). I just don’t see CVG as being able to support multiple carriers to the same destination. I wish we could but it’s not reality.

I think this is a little overblown. WN has the size and network to make DEN, PHX, and LAS work if they want to. Leisure routes to Florida are tougher with the competition, although the volume is there if WN wanted to battle. I highly doubt you will see CVG-BOS on WN.

i'd be shocked if b6 doesn't enter CVG-BOS at some point in the near future.

Apparently there is a large F9 expansion tomorrow. I would imagine CVG will get some new routes, I would think CVG-PDX/SEA/CLT/IAH are the most likely, should be interesting!

cvgComair wrote:

I agree that the long-term outlook will probably not have all these carriers on every route. Right now the LCC's are exploding because of cheap fuel, a strong economy, higher wages. The next time the economy struggles, many of these LCC's are going to be hurting and the cycle is going to start all over again. I think DL had every intention of fully dropping CVG in 2020 when the leases expire, but the resurgence of the economy has changed that course. All airports are seeing record amounts of passengers because people have the money to spend. I hate to be negative, but some of these airlines are going to be hurting on the next economic downturn. I think many of them have learned from 9/11 and '08/'09, so it probably won't be quite as dramatic, but certainly G4 would have trouble filling its daily CVG-SAV flight and DL will not have 3xB738 to MCO.

Well, the industry has consolidated a lot since the last downturn, and I believe we haven't seen the last of it yet (I believe both a F9/NK and AS/B6 merger are strong possibilities over the next 5-10 years). So airlines will be able to whether the storm better than last time.

The one thing I do worry is airlines (Legacy and LCC's) have been adding too much capacity across their networks, and they may have to cut some of it next downturn. For example, I worry some of these TATL flights that have been starting up the last few years may have to be cut if we experience an economic downturn. We'll see.

Appears F9 CVG-IAH is being loaded into the calendar starting in July. I am personally excited about this one!

jph7291 wrote:

Appears F9 CVG-IAH is being loaded into the calendar starting in July. I am personally excited about this one!

Neither CMH-DFW nor -IAH are bookable itineraries after July and April respectively. The theory in the Frontier thread was schedules being greyed out in their booking system could indicate new service and BNA-TTN was given as an example of this, so I'm wondering if we're getting those adds.

Looks like nothing at all for any of the Ohio airports, at least according to this -

https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... ew-cities/

Slightly disappointing day for this thread. With the massive Airbus order F9 has we will see plenty more from them in the future though. Seasonals going yearly, frequencies upped and some new routes thrown in over the next few years. Worry not.

jph7291 wrote:

Appears F9 CVG-IAH is being loaded into the calendar starting in July. I am personally excited about this one!

I know the press release did not contain any Ohio airports, but I just checked Frontier's website and could not find CVG to IAH being bookable at all (even with connections). Maybe this is a sign there's another big (or even small) expansion to come in the coming weeks?

jtwall wrote:

jph7291 wrote:

Appears F9 CVG-IAH is being loaded into the calendar starting in July. I am personally excited about this one!

I know the press release did not contain any Ohio airports, but I just checked Frontier's website and could not find CVG to IAH being bookable at all (even with connections). Maybe this is a sign there's another big (or even small) expansion to come in the coming weeks?

CVG-TTN was briefly loaded earlier this morning but was pretty quickly removed. Seems like CVG-IAH is not there at all either, though I never saw this one bookable in the first place. Last year they had two expansions in Feb and March, Feb routes started in late spring and March started in the summer. I am sure there will be another announcement for new routes to start in the summer.

I am guessing that this was probably in the works before Amazon announced their plans for a cargo hub at CVG, but the announcement of their own B2C delivery service could provide even more explanation for how big their plans are for CVG. Would be cool to see CVG grow into the Top 3 cargo airports in US (I think that is easily attainable).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to- ... 1518175920

Finally had the chance to review detailed EOY numbers for CMH. Decent Year Overall but it could and SHOULD be better:
Air Canada: +5.4%
Southwest: +4.1%
American: -1%ish
Delta: +1.7%
Frontier: +91.8%
United: -1.4%
Overall: +3.4%

The growth in December was pretty impressive for at least a few carriers. I was happy to see AA pick up (in December) and am impressed at F9 growing, which is a good sign for them staying.

We probably will not catch up to CVG's explosive growth yet, but time will tell. Does anyone have any insight about NK bookings and how they are looking?

Looks like the NK ticket counter at CMH is all done. I wonder if CRAA will add a jetbridge at B36 for them in the future.

This is an admittedly very bad quality photo I just found on Instagram, but it shows the newly completed NK counters in the CMH ticket lobby.

From left to right in the picture is UA (6 counters), AC (2 counters), NK (6 counters), FlyColumbus branding / "charters" (3 counters), and then WN which runs out of the frame and down until the end of this half of the concourse

I was at CMH today as well and saw it. Looked like they were working in/around the counter when I was there. NK's desk bleeds over onto the UA/AC side as well. The kiosks looked like they'd just been set up, but there wasn't anything in the way of luggage tags or other odds and ends sitting around.

Interesting to see the Charters desk still exists, which theoretically could give way to another airline if one were to come.

Alaska to SEA, fingers crossed.

RAM787 wrote:

Alaska to SEA, fingers crossed.

Are you predicting AS to add nonstop service to SEA from CVG, CMH, or both?

jplatts wrote:

RAM787 wrote:

Alaska to SEA, fingers crossed.

Are you predicting AS to add nonstop service to SEA from CVG, CMH, or both?

Was referring to the comment above me about the open counter at CMH. Just speculating on which airline could start service to CMH next.

I would love to see AS come in and start CMH-SFO/SEA. I think they would do really well on the route. It is beyond me why DL and UA keep ignoring CMH.

cvgComair wrote:

I would love to see AS come in and start CMH-SFO/SEA. I think they would do really well on the route. It is beyond me why DL and UA keep ignoring CMH.

DL's done alright by CMH with the point-to-point adds, upgauges, and possible TATL service.

I like that UA's added mainline back to ORD and DEN but the fact they've added SFO to every city around CMH, including some where SFO service already existed (CVG, DTW) instead of an untapped market (even before WN started OAK), was a head-scratcher.

cvgComair wrote:

I would love to see AS come in and start CMH-SFO/SEA. I think they would do really well on the route. It is beyond me why DL and UA keep ignoring CMH.

If they keep ignoring these potentially profitable routes I can see one of the ULCC's taking the initiative and adding them. We could maybe even see WN adding them.

RAM787 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I would love to see AS come in and start CMH-SFO/SEA. I think they would do really well on the route. It is beyond me why DL and UA keep ignoring CMH.

If they keep ignoring these potentially profitable routes I can see one of the ULCC's taking the initiative and adding them. We could maybe even see WN adding them.

It seems as though WN seems a bit reluctant on adding flights to the Pacific NW, at least from east of the Mississippi. Year round WN service from east of the Mississippi to cities such as SEA, PDX and even SFO and SJC is scarce.

I am baffled AS is not at any of the Ohio airports. Very untapped market for them if you ask me.

DeltaRules wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

I would love to see AS come in and start CMH-SFO/SEA. I think they would do really well on the route. It is beyond me why DL and UA keep ignoring CMH.

DL's done alright by CMH with the point-to-point adds, upgauges, and possible TATL service.

I like that UA's added mainline back to ORD and DEN but the fact they've added SFO to every city around CMH, including some where SFO service already existed (CVG, DTW) instead of an untapped market (even before WN started OAK), was a head-scratcher.

Is CRAA still subsidizing WN's CMH-OAK route in some form (can't remember what the initial incentives were)? I know that is sticking point for some carriers where they're loath to go up against subsidized competition (understandably) or will "punish" airports by not adding routes for this reason.

flyguy89 wrote:

Is CRAA still subsidizing WN's CMH-OAK route in some form (can't remember what the initial incentives were)? I know that is sticking point for some carriers where they're loath to go up against subsidized competition (understandably) or will "punish" airports by not adding routes for this reason.

No the revenue guarantee was for the first 2 years only. WN's CMH-OAK nonstop began in August 2015, so the incentives would have expired last year

Going forward I don't have much faith in UA to do anything, but would love to see AS enter with SEA and SFO

Bringing this up because it was discussed a few pages ago, Runway28L in the PIT thread is hearing rumors of PIT-DAB supposedly being something G4 is looking into.

That would definitely be an intriguing add and maybe it could happen after all. I'd figure LCK and CVG could be candidates if they grew it. Maybe DAY, too.

boscmh wrote:

flyguy89 wrote:

Is CRAA still subsidizing WN's CMH-OAK route in some form (can't remember what the initial incentives were)? I know that is sticking point for some carriers where they're loath to go up against subsidized competition (understandably) or will "punish" airports by not adding routes for this reason.

No the revenue guarantee was for the first 2 years only. WN's CMH-OAK nonstop began in August 2015, so the incentives would have expired last year

Going forward I don't have much faith in UA to do anything, but would love to see AS enter with SEA and SFO

The Dispatch said last year it was unclear if any of the revenue guarantees were ever paid out to WN. I remember WN at the time saying they were confident the route could sustain itself.

G4 just added new flights to VPS, if DAB is true, I wonder if more routes could be announced soon.

With the schedule extension, CVG-SJU is blocked beyond May and CVG-BWI/RDU/PVD are blocked beyond August. Either these routes are going seasonal or they are just not offering them for booking at the moment. However, it looks like CVG-CHS/MYR will be going year round, as they are both extended through the end of the schedule.

I will be interested to see how G4 handles the pressure from DL, their routes on CVG-SFB/PIE/PGD/FLL/DEN/AUS/BWI/RDU/AUS/LAS/LAX/AZA have all seen pretty big increases in DL competition. Overall, I think G4 is in a better position for combating DL than WN/F9. I would like to see them continue smaller routes like CVG-CHS/SRQ that DL/F9 are never going to serve.

I remember seeing a post about load factors and the G4 flight to BWI was horrendous so I imagine that one might be axed. Maybe they should move those flights to ORF since it would be similar flight time and all. Decent sized metro and leisure market. Just a thought. Also, I wonder if the experiment with PVD didn't meet expectations. People going to Boston probably didn't find it convenient enough.

OneJet has eliminated CVG-PIT from the rest of its schedule. It seems like their service was pretty useless with frequent delays and cancelations. I would think DL or UE could make CVG/LUK-PIT work, now that OneJet is gone, I wonder if either carrier will give it a go.

cvgComair wrote:

OneJet has eliminated CVG-PIT from the rest of its schedule. It seems like their service was pretty useless with frequent delays and cancelations. I would think DL or UE could make CVG/LUK-PIT work, now that OneJet is gone, I wonder if either carrier will give it a go.

How the heck is OneJet still in business? They can’t swem to keep routes.

I don’t see why DL couldn’t give CVG-PIT a try if timed right for connections. It’s further away than BNA is.

Heck, while they are at it, resume CVG-CLE as well for some inter Ohio traffic.

ADrum23 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

OneJet has eliminated CVG-PIT from the rest of its schedule. It seems like their service was pretty useless with frequent delays and cancelations. I would think DL or UE could make CVG/LUK-PIT work, now that OneJet is gone, I wonder if either carrier will give it a go.

How the heck is OneJet still in business? They can’t swem to keep routes.

I don’t see why DL couldn’t give CVG-PIT a try if timed right for connections. It’s further away than BNA is.

Heck, while they are at it, resume CVG-CLE as well for some inter Ohio traffic.

OneJet got a big chunk of funding from PIT in exchange for them setting up a base there. I remember reading something where they bankrolled them to the tune of several million dollars.

Why Cvg Cle isn’t served is a real mystery to me. Granted CLE center of gravity is more PIT DTW ORD whereas CVG gravitates more towards the south but these have to be the two of the biggest cities in the same state without air connection in the whole country (that aren’t a quick drive). And yeah I know about Burke to LUK.

ADrum23 wrote:

Heck, while they are at it, resume CVG-CLE as well for some inter Ohio traffic.

LUK-BKL is UE's biggest route. Meaningful service on CVG-CLE needs a hub at one end or the other.

Does anyone know of any announcements of new nonstop routes being made at CVG or CMH today or tomorrow? WN is going to be extending their schedule tomorrow.

jplatts wrote:

Does anyone know of any announcements of new nonstop routes being made at CVG or CMH today or tomorrow? WN is going to be extending their schedule tomorrow.

We will find out tomorrow.

From Twitter:

"Last night #Rickenbacker welcomed China Airlines with it's very first charter flight from Taipei to Columbus in partnership with Morrison Express!"



Also, for what it's worth, the Dispatch has an article about tomorrow's inaugural Spirit service (first flight, to Orlando, is scheduled to depart at 8am) - http://www.dispatch.com/business/201802 ... n-thursday

NoTime wrote:

From Twitter:

"Last night #Rickenbacker welcomed China Airlines with it's very first charter flight from Taipei to Columbus in partnership with Morrison Express!"



Also, for what it's worth, the Dispatch has an article about tomorrow's inaugural Spirit service (first flight, to Orlando, is scheduled to depart at 8am) - http://www.dispatch.com/business/201802 ... n-thursday

The inaugural inbound is on its way from FLL: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NKS492

I wonder if "492" is a play on 1492.

cvgComair wrote:

I will be interested to see how G4 handles the pressure from DL, their routes on CVG-SFB/PIE/PGD/FLL/DEN/AUS/BWI/RDU/AUS/LAS/LAX/AZA have all seen pretty big increases in DL competition.

cvgComair, you probably didn't notice, but you listed AUS twice. If you love Texas (and I do), twice is "right nice!"

WN has added CVG-DEN

I only searched in August but it looks to be a single daily that leaves late. Not timed for connections it seems.

cvgComair wrote:

WN has added CVG-DEN

I take back everyone I said about them not adding it this soon. Haha. I guess it was too big a station to not add. I am curious if that knocks G4 off of it.

flyingfromcvg wrote:

I only searched in August but it looks to be a single daily that leaves late. Not timed for connections it seems.

While it leaves late, it still does offer quite a few connections. I saw connections to SEA, PDX, OAK, SFO, LAX, ONT, GEG, LAS, BOI, SLC, PHX, TUS, and ABQ on the day I checked.

WN didn't drop any MDW or BWI flights for CVG did they?

Springs1816 wrote:

WN didn't drop any MDW or BWI flights for CVG did they?

Nope. In fact, 2 of the MDW frequencies will be on B738's.

Springs1816 wrote:

WN didn't drop any MDW or BWI flights for CVG did they?

Looks like still 5x MDW 3xBWI