Does anyone know with the loads so far, if Delta would extend the daily service? Or no way in hell? What would that have to be ( look like ) for daily service from IND. . . ??

fedex1 wrote:

Why does PIT only have seasonal service to CDG after 10 years? But IND got so called year round service?

The IND flight is subsidized, the PIT flight is not. When IND's subsidy runs out it may become seasonal just like PIT.

What’s the loads on PIT-CDG?

zackary747 wrote:

Having a good cargo base can be the difference maker on if a flight survives or not, or if it's seasonal or All year around.

Cargo is VERY important to the success of DL 500/501

Last week pax loads on the CDGIND leg were light but the belly was full with cargo. There are numerous freight forwarders in central Indiana that will take advantage of the new flight.

While the NW freight no longer has dedicated aircraft- it still has a network of users on its expanded DL route network. They will use this new option.

Even before the NW/RC merger, NW had a daily truck running to ORD to feed the freight operation there. Some of that network still exists, and is now feeding IND CDG IND.

NW flew DC-10's into numerous markets at one time for their freight hauling capabilities. BIL-ORD??? Yep. There was daily service between the cities. LIght pax load- full of freight.

The DL 767-ER offers a similar situation for both ends of this new flight.

So is IND better off than PIT, with respect to just the cargo factor alone, that apparently PIT doesn’t have?
Or do you see IND-CDG going to seasonal after the incentives go away, like what was mentioned? I’m just asking questions.

zackary747 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Indy wrote:

I don't disagree with the slot assessment. How soon this happens will depend on the pressure put on the City of Indianapolis and an airline by business interests. It will also depend on how much money the city/state will put up for the route. Money talks and the right kind of incentive money could make an airline pull a marginally profitable route and use the slots on IND. The ULCC issue does create a problem for full fare carriers. If they don't jump on a route quick enough, they risk losing international customers to the likes of Icelandair and WOW. So do you start a route a year or two premature and risk profits being a little light, or do you wait and risk someone else stepping in and taking your customers? Tough call.

They have already said they aren't pushing TATL until after 2020, focus right now is on Asia

When they say that they're not looking at TATL that is strictly the IEDC. Not the IAA. The IAA will try to get the LCCs in here without the IEDCs help. I talked to Mario and they are actively pursuing a LCC TATL flight. The reality is we won't see another legacy TATL until after 2020. We will see a LCC come in here before that tho. Also, a legacy and LCC DO NOT attract the same customers bases.

Here's the schedule: (Based on all the proof I have gathered)

2019: TPAC flight (IEDC)
2019ish (I am assuming): LCC to Europe (IAA)
2020: IEDC relooks at Europe once again.

That was what I was saying

fedex1 wrote:

So is IND better off than PIT, with respect to just the cargo factor alone, that apparently PIT doesn’t have?
Or do you see IND-CDG going to seasonal after the incentives go away, like what was mentioned? I’m just asking questions.

No real way of knowing until we go through the whole year.

MidWestIndy, read my post right above your last post, will you educate me please. You seem to have knowledge, and insight in the markets, and alirlines. I read what you guys put. . . And it just makes me ask questions. With respect to IND & PIT service to CDG. What will make IND not go to seasonal service like PIT has seen the last 10 years. Incentives ? Those only last (2) years correct??

fedex1 wrote:

So is IND better off than PIT, with respect to just the cargo factor alone, that apparently PIT doesn’t have?
Or do you see IND-CDG going to seasonal after the incentives go away, like what was mentioned? I’m just asking questions.

I would suggest the IND CDG flight has a stronger cargo base the PIT CDG. Lilly, for example, sends pharma compounds to European facilities via air for final packaging. And finished product is returned via air freight to the USA from Europe. And Indiana's numerous automotive component manufacturers will also be taking advantage of the new connection. These are two examples particular to IND-CDG.

I am personally enthused with the initial loads considering that weak marketing effort made to market the flights.

As word-of mouth spreads about the convenience of the flight- I think it will become even more successful.

However much of this traffic is seasonal- so I am not sure of the viability of daily service during the winter.

DL is known for adjusting its flight schedules and gauge between city pairs on a daily basis. I think this will be the case for the next 18-24 months for this new service.

I can see a 5 day per week service in the winter as market recognition builds.

Sorry guys, my phone only updates it seems for this forum like once per hour, i just asked MidWestIndy something he obviously responded too and I had no clue! My apologies.

fedex1 wrote:

MidWestIndy, read my post right above your last post, will you educate me please. You seem to have knowledge, and insight in the markets, and alirlines. I read what you guys put. . . And it just makes me ask questions. With respect to IND & PIT service to CDG. What will make IND not go to seasonal service like PIT has seen the last 10 years. Incentives ? Those only last (2) years correct??

PIT was year round until the subsidy ended. IND will have to maintain bearable loads in the winter (like RDU has) to maintain year round service.

Looks like today's IND-CDG flight is the first sell out. I guess as of right now the flight is over sold. Better hope for some no shows.

I have the March LFs in front of me (Didn't include inbound LF due to timing of Spring Breaks)
AA
IND-DCA-83.9%
IND-CLT-85.7%
IND-DFW-88.7%
IND-LAX-93.3%
IND-PHX-91.5%

AS/VX
IND-SEA-83.3%
IND-SFO-84.3% (LFs have recovered)

G4 (Outbound LF of 93.4%)
IND-AUS-92.8%
IND-AZA-90.9%
IND-FLL-92.7%
IND-JAX-86.6%
IND-LAS-95.2%
IND-MSY-89.8%
IND-PGD-95.8%
IND-PIE-94.5%
IND-SAV-89.0%
IND-SFB-95.0%

DL
IND-ATL-87.0%
IND-BOS-86.3%
IND-DTW-65.5%
IND-JFK-74.5%
IND-LAX-90.7%
IND-LGA-70.7%
IND-MCO-92.2%
IND-MIA-89.2%
IND-MSP-85.3%
IND-RDU-70.0%
IND-SLC-86.1%
December IND-CUN-96.6%

F9 (Outbound LF of 92.4%)
IND-DEN-93.2%
IND-LAS-93.2%
IND-MCO-93.3%
IND-RSW-92.9%
IND-TPA-88.1%

J1
IND-PIT-70.5%

WN (Outbound LF 86.0%)
IND-ATL-84.4%
IND-BOS-61.5%
IND-BWI-84.9%
IND-DAL-86.8%
IND-DEN-90.8%
IND-EWR-68.3%
IND-FLL-85.4%
IND-HOU-85.7%
IND-LAS-88.8%
IND-LAX-91.5%
IND-MCI-71.7%
IND-MCO-92.5%
IND-MDW-73.5%
IND-MSY-81.3%
IND-PHX-92.7%
IND-RSW-89.4%
IND-TPA-91.5%

UA
IND-ORD-84.9%
IND-DEN-94.1%
IND-SFO-81.9%
IND-IAH-90.4%
IND-EWR-85.7%
IND-IAD-91.6%

Indy wrote:

Looks like today's IND-CDG flight is the first sell out. I guess as of right now the flight is over sold. Better hope for some no shows.

That's a great sign. Doesn't look heavy the next several days but I'm sure DL is happy to be dealing with this vs. the alternative.

Also, looking at DL's numbers, I've noticed this year lots of empty IND-DTW-IND flights and seems like this backs that up. I wonder what's up with that. I can remember the days of being able to bank on oversells on IND-DTW flights.

Nice to see Alaska about 80% on the load factors. And interesting to see United isn't doing that bad either.

Interesting numbers, at least to me, on Allegiant to Savannah.
Oh, and do you mean LAS and not LAX?

Impressive numbers for Los Angeles among all the carriers.

Shows a number of them can peacefully co-exist on several overlapping routes, which is nice. Surprised, though, that hasn't attracted more action from Fromtier, Allegiant, or Spirit or JetBlue to come in.

Of course, must take into consideration spring break and the date where Easter fell.

indygs wrote:

Also, looking at DL's numbers, I've noticed this year lots of empty IND-DTW-IND flights and seems like this backs that up. I wonder what's up with that. I can remember the days of being able to bank on oversells on IND-DTW flights.

DL likes to offer large aircraft on this route for some reason, probably for the extra F capacity

stlgph wrote:

Nice to see Alaska about 80% on the load factors. And interesting to see United isn't doing that bad either.

Interesting numbers, at least to me, on Allegiant to Savannah.
Oh, and do you mean LAS and not LAX?

Impressive numbers for Los Angeles among all the carriers.

Shows a number of them can peacefully co-exist on several overlapping routes, which is nice. Surprised, though, that hasn't attracted more action from Fromtier, Allegiant, or Spirit or JetBlue to come in.

Of course, must take into consideration spring break and the date where Easter fell.

Haha yep, I changed it back to LAS

Numbers where pretty spectacular, I expect some increases next March as a result

So how do we think IND-CDG route is doing ?!? Think DL is pleased thus far? Or did we expect a little better? Or worse?

fedex1 wrote:

So how do we think IND-CDG route is doing ?!? Think DL is pleased thus far? Or did we expect a little better? Or worse?

Well, CDG-IND is as expected. It'll take a couple months for it to fill up as everyone makes their 'full circle'. Most of the demand is on the Indy side of the world. I personally thought it would of been more empty the first month or two, but it looks like we have more Paris sided demand than we thought.

IND-CDG is doing fantastic. Averaging 90 percent loads and who knows how much money with cargo under the a/c. So, that exceeded my expectations.

The next question is how will this flight do in the winter? Keep in mind, with lots of cargo the flight should be able to handle a dip to 75 percent loads without issues.

Awesome, I didn’t realize the loads coming out of IND are in the 90% range?!

FWIW, I'm on DL501 in a couple Fridays, Delta One is down to 2 seats open, Comfort+ sold out and a few middle seats here and there through coach.

Interesting changes over the last couple weeks:
AA
IND-PHL all E175 extended until October 3
IND-DFW all B738 extended until October 3
IND-ORD B738 extended until October 3
UA
IND-ORD 2x mainline(A319,A320) added for November
IND-DEN upguaged to B738 for November-December
IND-SFO upguaged to B738/B739 September

IND-CDG (DL 500) is in the area of 95% load for the month. If sales are supposed to improve as a route gets established, DL is going to need something bigger on the route for June of 2019. A 767-400 (76D) or A332 might be in order. Not sure if the A332 is going to provide enough additional capacity. The 76D with 246 seats might be enough. It is an increase of 20 seats over the 76Z. The A333 with 293 seats is probably too much. The 76D would give a heavy premium configuration.

It probably depends on how the 5x weekly sells during the fall and spring and how the 3x weekly sells during the winter.

The A333 would be awesome to see on the daily @ IND!!! Probably won’t happen! I would love to see the daily season to get pushed further into the year. What do you think?

Also, curious how the loads are IND-CDG compared to established service as in CVG-CDG?!?

Can you even compare? Both same equipment?? Same frequency?!?

fedex1 wrote:

Also, curious how the loads are IND-CDG compared to established service as in CVG-CDG?!?

Can you even compare? Both same equipment?? Same frequency?!?

CVG-CDG runs in the mid-90's for May/June, so both routes are doing about the same. This is similar to PIT/RDU-CDG as well.

Indy wrote:

IND-CDG (DL 500) is in the area of 95% load for the month. If sales are supposed to improve as a route gets established, DL is going to need something bigger on the route for June of 2019. A 767-400 (76D) or A332 might be in order. Not sure if the A332 is going to provide enough additional capacity. The 76D with 246 seats might be enough. It is an increase of 20 seats over the 76Z. The A333 with 293 seats is probably too much. The 76D would give a heavy premium configuration.

I would love to see DL make upguages on the CVG/RDU/PIT/IND-CDG routes, but I think they will raise fares for the highest demand weeks instead. Given that these 90% loads will only last for the late May/June period, it would be a very short upguage period. Outbound LF's tend to dip 10-20% once July rolls around. PIT-CDG's LF's dropped almost 30% last year from June to July.

The fares are already very high. If they raise fairs even more, they would be inviting in an EU LCC. Not sure they want to do that. Though I think the writing is already on the wall there with the EU LCCs.

Indy wrote:

If sales are supposed to improve as a route gets established

I don't think we will sales grow more on the route over time, rather, DL will want the financials to improve. Overtime, DL needs the following to happen:
a) the PDEW between IND and CDG needs to grow so that the flight has a larger % of O&D pax, which are more profitable than those connecting in CDG
b) the premium fliers are willing to pay for the route needs to increase (Y/Y+/J pax willing to pay more for IND-CDG-XXX vs IND-hub-XXX)
c) the amount of low yield passengers flying on thew route needs to be minimized (preferably routing them through other DL hubs on cheaper itineraries)

I think DL's routes such as ORD-CDG, PHL-LHR/CDG, etc are examples of routes with sufficient sales, but not enough passengers willing to pay for the premium of nonstop service. I am worried about PIT-CDG, as the route was struggling financially with just the 757. This year, they upgraded it to the 767, but that was because ticket prices decreased dramatically due to LCC presence. The loads on the route are very good, but many of the seats are being filled by rock-bottom fares.

This is something that IND needs to avoid, but I am confident that IND-CDG will do well. Based on all the signs I have seen, the route is preforming very well. A LCC coming into IND will probably make this more difficult, but I think the IND market will be able to absorb it.

I wonder if LHR would have been a better starting point for IND. The O/D on the route is about 3x as much as IND-CDG.

Well if the route is going out almost full, why would LHR have been the better route? I think we need Delta metal at IND given their large FF base, maybe I’m blind, and I will state that I know nothing! I’m honest. I love reading.

cvgComair wrote:

Indy wrote:

IND-CDG (DL 500) is in the area of 95% load for the month. If sales are supposed to improve as a route gets established, DL is going to need something bigger on the route for June of 2019. A 767-400 (76D) or A332 might be in order. Not sure if the A332 is going to provide enough additional capacity. The 76D with 246 seats might be enough. It is an increase of 20 seats over the 76Z. The A333 with 293 seats is probably too much. The 76D would give a heavy premium configuration.

I would love to see DL make upguages on the CVG/RDU/PIT/IND-CDG routes, but I think they will raise fares for the highest demand weeks instead. Given that these 90% loads will only last for the late May/June period, it would be a very short upguage period. Outbound LF's tend to dip 10-20% once July rolls around. PIT-CDG's LF's dropped almost 30% last year from June to July.

DL isn't upguaging IND-CDG anytime soon, with the exception of possibly Indy 500 weekend.
1. Capacity discipline is extremely important in the TATL market (something that the EU LCCs/ULCCs will learn soon). One of the primary reasons IND-CDG exists in the first place is because DL believes it can fetch higher fares from IND then it can from sending the 767 from DTW, MSP, ATL, e.t.c to XXX destination. DL knows how many people are coming and going from IND-Europe daily, but if DL were to match aircraft and frequency to that level they would have to decrease fares on the route to be competitive with all other carriers (which it doesn't want to do). Instead DL utilizes a smaller aircraft (comparatively speaking) on IND-CDG where they know they can get High LFs and high yield, where as they possibly could send a larger aircraft but the route would garner lower yield.

2. They don't have enough slack in their fleet to upguage routes, left and right

Indy wrote:

I wonder if LHR would have been a better starting point for IND. The O/D on the route is about 3x as much as IND-CDG.

fedex1 wrote:

Well if the route is going out almost full, why would LHR have been the better route? I think we need Delta metal at IND given their large FF base, maybe I’m blind, and I will state that I know nothing! I’m honest. I love reading.

I remember a while back the airport was even in discussions with UA about LHR and FRA considering UA handles(or used to handle) a lot of int'l travel for IND companies(but that obviously didn't amount to anything). LHR won't work on DL, if LHR happens it will be on BA
It's just good that IND has TATL service in the first place, so let's wait and see how it does year-round.

Gotcha MidwestIndy, my bad. So, someone posted a rumor that UA is flying more to CLE than they otherwise would due to the MX facility. It’s a rumor so who knows if it’s really true but I really wonder how these flights do from a profitability standpoint given that they compete against Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue, and they are leisure markets.

ncflyer wrote:

Gotcha MidwestIndy, my bad. So, someone posted a rumor that UA is flying more to CLE than they otherwise would due to the MX facility. It’s a rumor so who knows if it’s really true but I really wonder how these flights do from a profitability standpoint given that they compete against Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue, and they are leisure markets.

Do you mean IND-CLE coming back for maintenance rotations?

Well I think IND can support CDG, I’m just a person that will support a airline that advances IND to the next segment! Delta seems to be doing that currently, I would like to see more p2p routes from Delta, for the IND market that are rip for picking, San Diego comes to mind they let others jump on it. . . For example! Call me idiots and educate ME, please! With all do respect!

SumChristianus wrote:

ncflyer wrote:

Gotcha MidwestIndy, my bad. So, someone posted a rumor that UA is flying more to CLE than they otherwise would due to the MX facility. It’s a rumor so who knows if it’s really true but I really wonder how these flights do from a profitability standpoint given that they compete against Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue, and they are leisure markets.

Do you mean IND-CLE coming back for maintenance rotations?

He was referring to the CLE-RSW/FLL routes, I think that while these flights may not be the most profitable they are important to retaining a FF base

fedex1 wrote:

Well I think IND can support CDG, I’m just a person that will support a airline that advances IND to the next segment! Delta seems to be doing that currently, I would like to see more p2p routes from Delta, for the IND market that are rip for picking, San Diego comes to mind they let others jump on it. . . For example! Call me idiots and educate ME, please! With all do respect!

DL isn't going to start IND-SAN, especially now that WN and F9 are both on the route.

Why did they wait and let others jump on the route if Delta wants to build IND with p2p flying?

In terms of future creativity for routes being served, it seems with AA and UA being firmly trenched in their spoke-hub system, we may have to look for creativity from Allegiant, Frontier, Delta, or other entrants into the market. Even Delta though, while they could probably cherry pick a route or two to Florida with 170 service, seems to be a little cautious on their point to point Florida service network.

Like why didn’t Delta pick San Diego, or San Antonio, Nashville, Memphis? Those all could have worked right? Before others got them? Or no?

stlgph wrote:

In terms of future creativity for routes being served, it seems with AA and UA being firmly trenched in their spoke-hub system, we may have to look for creativity from Allegiant, Frontier, Delta, or other entrants into the market. Even Delta though, while they could probably cherry pick a route or two to Florida with 170 service, seems to be a little cautious on their point to point Florida service network.

Yep, DL, G4, and F9 will be the big movers. There could possibly be some moves from J1 and WN, but likely not major growth.

Delta's IND-RSW/MIA all do quite well during Spring/Winter Break
For Feb-Mar
RJ IND-RSW-94.8%
RJ IND-MIA-90.9%
(No fare data yet)

December
B717 IND-RSW-91.1%-Average Fare $280
DL's Normal IND-XXX-RSW flights have an average fare of 249

IND-MCO seems to be successful as well, so maybe we could see IND-RSW get an increased schedule

You're right, I forgot about the seasonal Delta to MIA and RSW. A little surprised RSW is still seasonal - or has its appeal gone down, as a whole, for IND passengers?

Anything happen at IND today to celebrate the first DL IND-SEA flight? Will be curious to see what loads look like for both AS and DL.

stlgph wrote:

You're right, I forgot about the seasonal Delta to MIA and RSW. A little surprised RSW is still seasonal - or has its appeal gone down, as a whole, for IND passengers?

Appeal still seems to be there, they upguaged IND-RSW to mainline last winter, next step is to make it seasonally daily outside of Christmas Break.

indygs wrote:

Anything happen at IND today to celebrate the first DL IND-SEA flight? Will be curious to see what loads look like for both AS and DL.

Seemed pretty quite at the airport, Loads will be good during Summer its just a matter of winter which will be interesting.

There were a ton of Diversions today though

I remember the route having multiple dailies on it ...2, sometimes 3. Be nice to get back up to that point.

Also, I see Allegiant has 6 coming and going today. Is 6 where they cap right now in terms of arrivals and departures or are there days with more?

stlgph wrote:

I remember the route having multiple dailies on it ...2, sometimes 3. Be nice to get back up to that point.

Also, I see Allegiant has 6 coming and going today. Is 6 where they cap right now in terms of arrivals and departures or are there days with more?

Maybe under NW, DL didn't start flying RSW/MCO/MIA until a few years ago. I'll admit though it will be hard to get up to that level:

WN runs up to 5-8 daily flights to RSW/MCO
G4 runs up to 8x weekly to PGD/SFB
F9 runs up to 1x daily to RSW/MCO

I believe they max out at 8-9 departures a day. They currently only have 1 gate, and RON aircraft at one gate so they usually have to remotely park 1-2 aircraft overnight.

Any predictions for WN's schedule extension next week?
IND-PHX could see some more capacity Jan LF-94.2%, Feb LF-91.6%

I expect IND-BOS/EWR to stay at 1x daily, and AUS and CUN to continue

I doubt we see anything SAN related.

Midwestindy wrote:

Any predictions for WN's schedule extension next week?
IND-PHX could see some more capacity Jan LF-94.2%, Feb LF-91.6%

I expect IND-BOS/EWR to stay at 1x daily, and AUS and CUN to continue

I doubt we see anything SAN related.

Curious, any sense of when WN's capacity fleet-wise will recover from last fall's retirement of 50+ frames? I feel like IND may need to wait until those numbers get back to where they had been. Hoping eventually they'll bring back DCA and add BNA.

Would be nice to see some outside the box thinking, perhaps once a week Punta Cana for a few months or something of that nature.

One thing to keep in mind, this extension stops right before Spring Break time begins, and Easter falls later next year...April 21.

indygs wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Any predictions for WN's schedule extension next week?
IND-PHX could see some more capacity Jan LF-94.2%, Feb LF-91.6%

I expect IND-BOS/EWR to stay at 1x daily, and AUS and CUN to continue

I doubt we see anything SAN related.

Curious, any sense of when WN's capacity fleet-wise will recover from last fall's retirement of 50+ frames? I feel like IND may need to wait until those numbers get back to where they had been. Hoping eventually they'll bring back DCA and add BNA.

DCA is not going to return, cutting DCA was a smart, calculated move on WN's part. WN IND-BWI fares and LF have gone up, WN consolidated the Baltimore-Washington pax to their hub in BWI and lost little to no passengers in the process (based on the data most of the pax who flew WN IND-DCA are now switching to the IND-BWI flight), WN can use the slots for more profitable flights.

I'm patiently waiting for BNA, I think it will be announced sometime this year. Once BNA is announced I think WN adds will settle down for a while, with the exception of maybe a SAT, JAX, PBI, e.t.c route

stlgph wrote:

Would be nice to see some outside the box thinking, perhaps once a week Punta Cana for a few months or something of that nature.

One thing to keep in mind, this extension stops right before Spring Break time begins, and Easter falls later next year...April 21.

I could possibly see that from F9, or G4 once they commence international flying.

Spring Break for Purdue and IU fall in the middle part of March this year, which is a big source of demand to CUN and PUJ. I think Spring Break 2019 for most of the Indianapolis area schools also falls around middle to late March as well.