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Indy
Posts: 4622
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:46 pm

stlgph wrote:
San Antonio - Allegiant/Southwest
Portland - Alaska
Providence - Allegiant
Newport News/Virginia Beach - Allegiant
West Palm Beach - Allegiant/Frontier
Tucson - Allegiant
Montreal - Air Canada Express
Hartford - Onejet
Milwaukee - Onejet


I'd be on board with the first 6. I think I'd swap out the last 3 with the following...

Mexico City - Aeromexico
Montego Bay - Sun Country
San Juan - Sun Country
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Indy
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Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:49 pm

I might add other possibilities in the new few years or so could include...

Reykjavík - Icelandair or WOW
Frankfurt - Condor
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:01 pm

More good news coming from G4

https://www.ibj.com/articles/66963-alle ... charleston

The Sarasota service, which will operate year-round, begins April 11. The Charleston service, which begins April 6, will run seasonally from Easter to October or November, said Lukas Johnson, a senior vice president at Allegiant.

-Lukas Johnson, a senior vice president at Allegiant

"Allegiant already offers flights from Indianapolis to both St. Petersburg and Punta Gorda, both of which are on Florida’s west coast. Those flights have proven to be successful, Johnson said, so Allegiant decided to add service to Sarasota, which lies midway between those two cities."

“Indianapolis absolutely loves the west coast of Florida,” Johnson said.

Likewise, Johnson said, Allegiant has been pleased with its Indianapolis service to both Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia. Charleston is between those two coastal cities.

story continues below

Based on the success of the Sarasota and Charleston flights, Johnson said, Allegiant could add additional service from Indianapolis by this fall.

“We have some others (destination cities) in our playbook that we’re taking a look at,” said Johnson, who did not name specific destinations.

That base opens on Feb. 7, and Allegiant plans to add a third Indianapolis-based aircraft this summer

WOW just WOW, G4 has really exploded at IND....
SAN, LAX, OAK, BWI, EWR, PVD, and RDU all seem very possible at this point, but obviously not all at once....
This evening I will calculate the growth, but I think that G4 could be up around 45% YOY growth from IND at least for April.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:09 pm

Indy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
San Antonio - Allegiant/Southwest
Portland - Alaska
Providence - Allegiant
Newport News/Virginia Beach - Allegiant
West Palm Beach - Allegiant/Frontier
Tucson - Allegiant
Montreal - Air Canada Express
Hartford - Onejet
Milwaukee - Onejet


I'd be on board with the first 6. I think I'd swap out the last 3 with the following...

Mexico City - Aeromexico
Montego Bay - Sun Country
San Juan - Sun Country


As Indy said
KEF- WOW/FI
FRA- DE
Plus I'll throw in
BNA- WN
STL-WN
SMF-WN
BLI-G4
LGW-DY/D8
DUB-EI

But, to be honest IND is really well served.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:10 pm

Sarasota is a big win for Indy. It is a virtual pipeline from Indy to west Florida, year round. West Palm Beach is another possible.
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 457
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:12 pm

Indy wrote:
stlgph wrote:
San Antonio - Allegiant/Southwest
Portland - Alaska
Providence - Allegiant
Newport News/Virginia Beach - Allegiant
West Palm Beach - Allegiant/Frontier
Tucson - Allegiant
Montreal - Air Canada Express
Hartford - Onejet
Milwaukee - Onejet


I'd be on board with the first 6. I think I'd swap out the last 3 with the following...

Mexico City - Aeromexico
Montego Bay - Sun Country
San Juan - Sun Country


I'd say the following are possibilities. Some are already served by other carriers,
Orlando/New York/San Francisco seem saturated by now.

Sun Country:
Gulfport/Biloxi 737-800 1x week (Has operated as charter)
Tucson 737-800 1x week
Frontier:
Ontario A320 3x week
Colorado Springs A319 1x week ( They seem to be moving capacity there)
Pensacola A320 2x week
Trenton A319 3x week (Probably not, but 20 route restrucrings from now, maybe...)

Allegiant:
West Palm Beach A319 2x week
Harlingen A319 1x week
Providence A319 1x week
Los Angeles A320 2x week
Montrose A319 1x week
Alburqueque A319 2x week

Southwest:
Nashville 737-700 13x week (Atlanta would have to reduce 3>2 in daily flights and demand would be 80 PDEW at most)
West Palm Beach 737-700 1x week

Delta:
Pittsburgh/Cleveland/Milwaukee 12x weekly CRJ each (A stretch, all of them)
Traverse City 1x weekly CRJ (Mayyyyybe, but very short)

Norwegian Air Shuttle:
London 2x weekly A321
Dublin 2x weekly A321

United:
Los Angeles 2x weekly A319 (with reduction in SFO frequency)
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:41 pm

If OneJet would have been successful we could have had 60 destinations by now
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:54 pm

Memphis with FedEx traffic could see a return from Delta with a timing lining up with the new Paris flight.
Or a OneJet ER3 if they return to IND growth.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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atypical
Posts: 768
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:28 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:06 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Memphis with FedEx traffic could see a return from Delta with a timing lining up with the new Paris flight.
Or a OneJet ER3 if they return to IND growth.


FedEx widebodies have "cabin jumpseats" and several flights are scheduled through the day between the two stations. I imagine that FedEx uses very little commercial service between the two stations. I am also unsure how much corporate traffic between the two stations is necessary.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:44 pm

Question for you, will IND ever get mainline to Canada? Or is that a HELL NO?!!?

Also what about a Mexico airline flying IND ? Or will it have to be Delta, or a US airline to provide service to Mexico City, and other places, outside of CUN.
 
OSSYULYYZ
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:43 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:51 pm

stlgph wrote:
San Antonio - Allegiant/Southwest
Portland - Alaska
Providence - Allegiant
Newport News/Virginia Beach - Allegiant
West Palm Beach - Allegiant/Frontier
Tucson - Allegiant
Montreal - Air Canada Express
Hartford - Onejet
Milwaukee - Onejet


What makes you think that AC will start YUL service. Yes a bunch of people connect with me from YYZ to YUL but having been from Canada and seeing the Asian Population in the Suburbs, I think that WestJet would have a greater chance of having a YVR flight (especially with the new JV and the talks of a Delta flight to SEA).
 
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Midwestindy
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Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:57 pm

atypical wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Memphis with FedEx traffic could see a return from Delta with a timing lining up with the new Paris flight.
Or a OneJet ER3 if they return to IND growth.


FedEx widebodies have "cabin jumpseats" and several flights are scheduled through the day between the two stations. I imagine that FedEx uses very little commercial service between the two stations. I am also unsure how much corporate traffic between the two stations is necessary.


It'll be Onejet probably not DL, J1 ran MEM-IND because FX had a corporate contract with them, just for that one flight!
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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flyPIT
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:06 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
It'll be Onejet probably not DL, J1 ran MEM-IND because FX had a corporate contract with them, just for that one flight!

FedEx still has a corporate contract with them, and certainly not just for that one flight (which no longer exists).

"Employees from FedEx Ground and PNC Bank frequently use OneJet to fly between Pittsburgh and other cities, Maguire said."
http://triblive.com/local/allegheny/13068062-74/onejet-adds-nonstop-flights-to-2-major-midwest-cities-from-pittsburgh-international

"The company now offers over 160 weekly flights to and from Pittsburgh, with weekday flights to Indianapolis, Hartford, Cincinnati, Richmond, Louisville, Albany, Milwaukee and Providence. OneJet provides the exclusive nonstop service in these markets, with fast and convenient links for business travelers to and from the region, including those of major corporate customers such as FedEx and PNC Bank."
http://www.onejet.com/press-archive/onejet-launches-service-between-pittsburgh-and-providence
FLYi
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:20 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
It'll be Onejet probably not DL, J1 ran MEM-IND because FX had a corporate contract with them, just for that one flight!

FedEx still has a corporate contract with them, and certainly not just for that one flight (which no longer exists).

"Employees from FedEx Ground and PNC Bank frequently use OneJet to fly between Pittsburgh and other cities, Maguire said."
http://triblive.com/local/allegheny/13068062-74/onejet-adds-nonstop-flights-to-2-major-midwest-cities-from-pittsburgh-international

"The company now offers over 160 weekly flights to and from Pittsburgh, with weekday flights to Indianapolis, Hartford, Cincinnati, Richmond, Louisville, Albany, Milwaukee and Providence. OneJet provides the exclusive nonstop service in these markets, with fast and convenient links for business travelers to and from the region, including those of major corporate customers such as FedEx and PNC Bank."
http://www.onejet.com/press-archive/onejet-launches-service-between-pittsburgh-and-providence


I said they originally had a corporate contract for that one flight.
https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/blo ... tract.html

Title: "OneJet takes off in Memphis with FedEx contract"

"Monday the new business-minded air carrier OneJet launched its nonstop service from Memphis to Indianapolis – a direct service for FedEx Corp. employees looking to hop a flight to the Indy hub."
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:23 pm

atypical wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Memphis with FedEx traffic could see a return from Delta with a timing lining up with the new Paris flight.
Or a OneJet ER3 if they return to IND growth.


FedEx widebodies have "cabin jumpseats" and several flights are scheduled through the day between the two stations. I imagine that FedEx uses very little commercial service between the two stations. I am also unsure how much corporate traffic between the two stations is necessary.


https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/blo ... tract.html

Quote from 2015, when J1 had the corporate contract from FX for the flight
"Smith said pilots and mechanics can often catch a jump seat aboard a FedEx Express plane to the FedEx Express hub in Indianapolis, but FedEx employees who work in IT, sales or marketing don’t have that option. With the need for service, Smith facilitated discussions to establish OneJet as a certified carrier through FedEx’s global travel vendor."

“It’s a very innovative and unique business model – one that presents a great option for business travelers especially us at FedEx because we have another very large hub like this one in Indianapolis”
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:13 am

Will IND ever get mainline from Air Canada?? What would that take?

Also. What is the likely hood of a Mexico airline flying nonstop from Mexico City to IND? Is there demand? Thoughts on both please.
 
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Midwestindy
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Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:21 am

Sorry for the triple post, in advance
SumChristianus wrote:
2017 Passenger figures have not yet been released, but expect around 8,750,000 at current growth rates. 2016 was around 8,500,000.
Interestingly, around 473 PDEW connected through IND in Q3 2017
United has a big discrepancy between around 1650 daily boardings and 1250 PDEW in domestic O/D demand. Do they really carry 400 PDEW internationally?


Where did you see this number for Q3?
For 2016, Connections were around 5% of total pax.
I think that UA and AC were combined in the numbers you have
fedex1 wrote:
Question for you, will IND ever get mainline to Canada? Or is that a HELL NO?!!?

Also what about a Mexico airline flying IND ? Or will it have to be Delta, or a US airline to provide service to Mexico City, and other places, outside of CUN.

Not really a need for it, flights aren't going out completely full. I think the only midwest airport with mainline to Canada is ORD. For a route like YYZ-IND frequency is much more important than mainline. MEX flying is in the works according to the Exec Director of the airport, so I wouldn't be surprised if something was announced in the next 1-3 years.

ibthebigd wrote:
If OneJet would have been successful we could have had 60 destinations by now

J1 was successful in IND, but PIT gave them $$$ to move there
SumChristianus wrote:
Frontier:
Ontario A320 3x week
Colorado Springs A319 1x week ( They seem to be moving capacity there)
Pensacola A320 2x week
Trenton A319 3x week (Probably not, but 20 route restrucrings from now, maybe...)

Allegiant:
West Palm Beach A319 2x week
Harlingen A319 1x week
Providence A319 1x week
Los Angeles A320 2x week
Montrose A319 1x week
Alburqueque A319 2x week

Delta:
Pittsburgh/Cleveland/Milwaukee 12x weekly CRJ each (A stretch, all of them)
Traverse City 1x weekly CRJ (Mayyyyybe, but very short)

I don't see any of those Frontier adds happening, but if any of them happen it would be TTN, but they still don't even serve MIA yet from IND
If G4 opens up PBI service I could see that happening, LAX, ABQ, and PVD could happen as well. What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest. If G4 adds more from CO and TX it will probably be DEN and SAT.
For DL, I don't see any of those happening in the near future, CLE-IND was tried back earlier this decade and failed miserably. If DL adds anything from IND in the next 1-3 years it will probably be some combination of: PDX, AUS, FLL, BDL, TPA, LAS, SEA, MSY, or SAT
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:35 am

Midwestindy wrote:
What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest.


Harlingen is the closest commercial airport to South Padre Island in Texas, and Delta and Sun Country both have seasonal nonstop service from MSP, which is in the Midwest, to HRL. In addition, Southwest can also connect passengers to HRL from IND, OMA, MCI, STL, and MDW, which are all in the Midwest, through HOU, and Southwest will also be able to connect passengers to HRL from MKE, which is also in the Midwest, through HOU once it starts MKE-HOU nonstop service on March 8th.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 94
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:00 am

I think Reno would be a good destination for G4 to develope

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 457
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:20 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Sorry for the triple post, in advance
SumChristianus wrote:
2017 Passenger figures have not yet been released, but expect around 8,750,000 at current growth rates. 2016 was around 8,500,000.
Interestingly, around 473 PDEW connected through IND in Q3 2017
United has a big discrepancy between around 1650 daily boardings and 1250 PDEW in domestic O/D demand. Do they really carry 400 PDEW internationally?


Where did you see this number for Q3?
For 2016, Connections were around 5% of total pax.
I think that UA and AC were combined in the numbers you have
fedex1 wrote:
Question for you, will IND ever get mainline to Canada? Or is that a HELL NO?!!?

Also what about a Mexico airline flying IND ? Or will it have to be Delta, or a US airline to provide service to Mexico City, and other places, outside of CUN.

Not really a need for it, flights aren't going out completely full. I think the only midwest airport with mainline to Canada is ORD. For a route like YYZ-IND frequency is much more important than mainline. MEX flying is in the works according to the Exec Director of the airport, so I wouldn't be surprised if something was announced in the next 1-3 years.

ibthebigd wrote:
If OneJet would have been successful we could have had 60 destinations by now

J1 was successful in IND, but PIT gave them $$$ to move there
SumChristianus wrote:
Frontier:
Ontario A320 3x week
Colorado Springs A319 1x week ( They seem to be moving capacity there)
Pensacola A320 2x week
Trenton A319 3x week (Probably not, but 20 route restrucrings from now, maybe...)

Allegiant:
West Palm Beach A319 2x week
Harlingen A319 1x week
Providence A319 1x week
Los Angeles A320 2x week
Montrose A319 1x week
Alburqueque A319 2x week

Delta:
Pittsburgh/Cleveland/Milwaukee 12x weekly CRJ each (A stretch, all of them)
Traverse City 1x weekly CRJ (Mayyyyybe, but very short)

I don't see any of those Frontier adds happening, but if any of them happen it would be TTN, but they still don't even serve MIA yet from IND
If G4 opens up PBI service I could see that happening, LAX, ABQ, and PVD could happen as well. What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest. If G4 adds more from CO and TX it will probably be DEN and SAT.
For DL, I don't see any of those happening in the near future, CLE-IND was tried back earlier this decade and failed miserably. If DL adds anything from IND in the next 1-3 years it will probably be some combination of: PDX, AUS, FLL, BDL, TPA, LAS, SEA, MSY, or SAT


Most of my thinking was pretty far out, yes; Miami seems the most likely for Frontier, I just thought about the farthest out (unserved by any carrier) routes.
For the Q3 connecting passengers, I used national DB1B filtered to routings that included IND but did not end or begin here. Its probably thrown off by WN and through flights, though, but interesting in some of the routings taken.
The UA discrepancy was between IND boardings reported by the airport and Q3 O/D passengers on DB1B who routed on UA through each airport, it seems there are quite a lot of "unaccounted" passengers on IAD and ORD flights.
DL through ATL also seems to be missing a few hundred passengers in the data, which I assume means the are connecting internationally.
Allegiant seems the most likely ULCC to develop a Ryanair-esque route network, with low frequencies, numerous routes from every base, and the seeming ability to develop any market. Myrtle Beach to Dayton, for instance. I see West Palm Beach, Reno, Tucscon, Alberqueque, a western ski destination, and perhaps Atlantic City as their next bases. Harlingen and Key West (although runway length is probably way to short would be the type of niche routes which a hypothetical Ryanair America would eventually serve from IND, and Allegiant "could" eventually serve these markets.
They'll probably be at 300 planes (merged with Frontier?) before they would fly IND-Montrose or Reno though.
Frontier, now that I think of it, may be gone from IND in 3 years if they keep changing their strategy.
Sorry, I wrote to fast on some of those earlier ideas. I'm just excited to share my theories, I've been reading your analyses for a few months.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 457
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:34 am

fedex1 wrote:
Will IND ever get mainline from Air Canada?? What would that take?

Also. What is the likely hood of a Mexico airline flying nonstop from Mexico City to IND? Is there demand? Thoughts on both please.


I somehow doubt that AC will send mainline, with 3? daily flights they are at ~150 seats a day and a 2011 Canadian document showed IND demand to all of Canada at around 100 PDEW total.
Mexico City, I've heard from an airport employee is a hope, but a hope which I think they said an airline would laugh at for the present, 2011 Brookings data showed around 20 PDEW I think, and international markets are probably less "stimulatable?" than domestic. 2030 maybe, it could be a 100 PDEW market by then if its served, Aeromexico Connect or an LCC would be the most likely to serve it though. Volaris already flies to IND so perhaps gives them an incentive to look at IND-MEX in the future. MKE-GDL was added this year on Volaris, though, so I'll temper my doubt by saying anything's possible.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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Midwestindy
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Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:40 am

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Sorry for the triple post, in advance
SumChristianus wrote:
2017 Passenger figures have not yet been released, but expect around 8,750,000 at current growth rates. 2016 was around 8,500,000.
Interestingly, around 473 PDEW connected through IND in Q3 2017
United has a big discrepancy between around 1650 daily boardings and 1250 PDEW in domestic O/D demand. Do they really carry 400 PDEW internationally?


Where did you see this number for Q3?
For 2016, Connections were around 5% of total pax.
I think that UA and AC were combined in the numbers you have
fedex1 wrote:
Question for you, will IND ever get mainline to Canada? Or is that a HELL NO?!!?

Also what about a Mexico airline flying IND ? Or will it have to be Delta, or a US airline to provide service to Mexico City, and other places, outside of CUN.

Not really a need for it, flights aren't going out completely full. I think the only midwest airport with mainline to Canada is ORD. For a route like YYZ-IND frequency is much more important than mainline. MEX flying is in the works according to the Exec Director of the airport, so I wouldn't be surprised if something was announced in the next 1-3 years.

ibthebigd wrote:
If OneJet would have been successful we could have had 60 destinations by now

J1 was successful in IND, but PIT gave them $$$ to move there
SumChristianus wrote:
Frontier:
Ontario A320 3x week
Colorado Springs A319 1x week ( They seem to be moving capacity there)
Pensacola A320 2x week
Trenton A319 3x week (Probably not, but 20 route restrucrings from now, maybe...)

Allegiant:
West Palm Beach A319 2x week
Harlingen A319 1x week
Providence A319 1x week
Los Angeles A320 2x week
Montrose A319 1x week
Alburqueque A319 2x week

Delta:
Pittsburgh/Cleveland/Milwaukee 12x weekly CRJ each (A stretch, all of them)
Traverse City 1x weekly CRJ (Mayyyyybe, but very short)

I don't see any of those Frontier adds happening, but if any of them happen it would be TTN, but they still don't even serve MIA yet from IND
If G4 opens up PBI service I could see that happening, LAX, ABQ, and PVD could happen as well. What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest. If G4 adds more from CO and TX it will probably be DEN and SAT.
For DL, I don't see any of those happening in the near future, CLE-IND was tried back earlier this decade and failed miserably. If DL adds anything from IND in the next 1-3 years it will probably be some combination of: PDX, AUS, FLL, BDL, TPA, LAS, SEA, MSY, or SAT


Most of my thinking was pretty far out, yes; Miami seems the most likely for Frontier, I just thought about the farthest out (unserved by any carrier) routes.
For the Q3 connecting passengers, I used national DB1B filtered to routings that included IND but did not end or begin here. Its probably thrown off by WN and through flights, though, but interesting in some of the routings taken.
The UA discrepancy was between IND boardings reported by the airport and Q3 O/D passengers on DB1B who routed on UA through each airport, it seems there are quite a lot of "unaccounted" passengers on IAD and ORD flights.
DL through ATL also seems to be missing a few hundred passengers in the data, which I assume means the are connecting internationally.
Allegiant seems the most likely ULCC to develop a Ryanair-esque route network, with low frequencies, numerous routes from every base, and the seeming ability to develop any market. Myrtle Beach to Dayton, for instance. I see West Palm Beach, Reno, Tucscon, Alberqueque, a western ski destination, and perhaps Atlantic City as their next bases. Harlingen and Key West (although runway length is probably way to short would be the type of niche routes which a hypothetical Ryanair America would eventually serve from IND, and Allegiant "could" eventually serve these markets.
They'll probably be at 300 planes (merged with Frontier?) before they would fly IND-Montrose or Reno though.
Frontier, now that I think of it, may be gone from IND in 3 years if they keep changing their strategy.
Sorry, I wrote to fast on some of those earlier ideas. I'm just excited to share my theories, I've been reading your analyses for a few months.


Thanks I had forgot to check for Q3 numbers: Based on looking at the data you can get a fairly good estimate of PDEW to certain markets, in terms of markets of interest SAT(81), AUS (121), SAN (213), SEA (265), MCI (141), PDX (118), SMF (75), SJU (43), BDL (62), SNA (85), any others I missed?

Also according to their schedules G4 should be up at IND, 31.21% capacity for Feb, 38.74% for Mar, 36.7% for Apr. (AZA, AUS, VPS, CHS, and SRQ all announced in the past year) Probably the reason they need to base an additional a/c in IND.

Back on topic though, I agree, I could see Atlantic City, Albuquerque, West Palm Beach, Reno, Chicago, Houston or Dallas, maybe Virginia Beach, and Atlanta (plus all the int'l destinations they plan to serve) as new "destination cities" for them. I don't see a ski destination happening, just because the type of service G4 provides isn't geared towards the Ski Resort crowd (but anything can happen). The only problem with TUS is that it is so close to their large operation in AZA (but again anything can happen).

I included Chicago, Dallas, and the like because during their investor day they expressed interest in shifting some focus from smaller markets to larger markets, which in the past they haven't served well. So I expect them to grow and add larger markets in the coming years which should be exciting to see...

Welcome to a.net by the way!
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:26 pm

Thank you MidwestIndy.
SEA at 265 PDEW is quite incredible, but must be effects of the nonstop and peak summer. DL could easily serve it in summer, but I'd expect reductions in IND-MSP and IND-SLC as flows would be rearranged.
Do you know anymore about the UA IND-LAX rumor; I haven't been able to find anything on it.

They might not all call it as such but IND seems on track to having large DL, WN, and G4 focus cities; the new triple crown.

My next hope is for B6 to come on BOS and FLL, but WN seems to have saturated both of those markets at present.

UA went back up to 3x daily IND-DEN in next summer's schedule, but is now at 2x E75 1x 319 beginning in June?, seems an odd cut for the peak season as its 2x 320 1x E75 in May. They also took mainline off of IND-ORD for much of 2018 (last time I looked) but SFO is back at 2x 319 in March. They just don't seem to do as well in IND as DL and AA. Perhaps not enough connecting capacity at hubs? Their ORD schedule looks like a constriction pipe of ERJs and CRJs compared to DL at ATL (of course DL is serving the larger Florida market) but it seems as if they need a big capacity increase system-wide in order to make growth on one route sustainable by providing enough connecting seats.
Once again, thanks for all of your nice analysis.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
tphuang
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:05 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Thank you MidwestIndy.
SEA at 265 PDEW is quite incredible, but must be effects of the nonstop and peak summer. DL could easily serve it in summer, but I'd expect reductions in IND-MSP and IND-SLC as flows would be rearranged.
Do you know anymore about the UA IND-LAX rumor; I haven't been able to find anything on it.

They might not all call it as such but IND seems on track to having large DL, WN, and G4 focus cities; the new triple crown.

My next hope is for B6 to come on BOS and FLL, but WN seems to have saturated both of those markets at present.

UA went back up to 3x daily IND-DEN in next summer's schedule, but is now at 2x E75 1x 319 beginning in June?, seems an odd cut for the peak season as its 2x 320 1x E75 in May. They also took mainline off of IND-ORD for much of 2018 (last time I looked) but SFO is back at 2x 319 in March. They just don't seem to do as well in IND as DL and AA. Perhaps not enough connecting capacity at hubs? Their ORD schedule looks like a constriction pipe of ERJs and CRJs compared to DL at ATL (of course DL is serving the larger Florida market) but it seems as if they need a big capacity increase system-wide in order to make growth on one route sustainable by providing enough connecting seats.
Once again, thanks for all of your nice analysis.


If b6 make up their mind to come, they will be fine. In all the larger wn stations that b6 entered from bos, b6 gets about same yield. I don't see why ind would be any different. And they can normally make fll work with connections.
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:10 pm

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest.


Harlingen is the closest commercial airport to South Padre Island in Texas, and Delta and Sun Country both have seasonal nonstop service from MSP, which is in the Midwest, to HRL. In addition, Southwest can also connect passengers to HRL from IND, OMA, MCI, STL, and MDW, which are all in the Midwest, through HOU, and Southwest will also be able to connect passengers to HRL from MKE, which is also in the Midwest, through HOU once it starts MKE-HOU nonstop service on March 8th.


Canada and the Midwest make up the biggest source of tourists for South Padre Island.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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nikeson13
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:26 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Thank you MidwestIndy.
SEA at 265 PDEW is quite incredible, but must be effects of the nonstop and peak summer. DL could easily serve it in summer, but I'd expect reductions in IND-MSP and IND-SLC as flows would be rearranged.
Do you know anymore about the UA IND-LAX rumor; I haven't been able to find anything on it.

They might not all call it as such but IND seems on track to having large DL, WN, and G4 focus cities; the new triple crown.

My next hope is for B6 to come on BOS and FLL, but WN seems to have saturated both of those markets at present.

UA went back up to 3x daily IND-DEN in next summer's schedule, but is now at 2x E75 1x 319 beginning in June?, seems an odd cut for the peak season as its 2x 320 1x E75 in May. They also took mainline off of IND-ORD for much of 2018 (last time I looked) but SFO is back at 2x 319 in March. They just don't seem to do as well in IND as DL and AA. Perhaps not enough connecting capacity at hubs? Their ORD schedule looks like a constriction pipe of ERJs and CRJs compared to DL at ATL (of course DL is serving the larger Florida market) but it seems as if they need a big capacity increase system-wide in order to make growth on one route sustainable by providing enough connecting seats.
Once again, thanks for all of your nice analysis.

Until 2x daily SFO service was announced on UA, prices were always high, and connections thru DEN or IAH weren't the best to SMF for the price compared to the direct ORD-SMF on AA/UA. But since the pressure from AS/VX in the market and DL adding flights, the direct and connections look much more appealing on UA. Plus, the IND-ORD-XXX options look much lower than they used to be (random day in June yields 2x IND-DEN-SFO options and 5x IND-ORD-SFO options for $172 and all are 45-90 min layovers, IND-SFO direct is $214 (all one-way pricing)). But then look at IND-XXX-LAX on UA, only 3 options for $172 (2x ORD, 1x DEN) and surprisingly NONE for IND-SFO-LAX... Some markets from IND are priced pretty uncompetitively on UA (ATL $149 vs. DL $100, MIA $190 vs. DL/AA $122, MCO $214 vs DL $147, NYC $155 to EWR vs. AA $99 to LGA or DL $110 to EWR) and only few are really well priced (IAD $99, LAS $146). Not sure exactly what's up here...
Nikolas
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:34 pm

stlgph wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
What would be the draw to for Harlingen or Montrose though, those aren't really tourist destinations from the midwest.


Harlingen is the closest commercial airport to South Padre Island in Texas, and Delta and Sun Country both have seasonal nonstop service from MSP, which is in the Midwest, to HRL. In addition, Southwest can also connect passengers to HRL from IND, OMA, MCI, STL, and MDW, which are all in the Midwest, through HOU, and Southwest will also be able to connect passengers to HRL from MKE, which is also in the Midwest, through HOU once it starts MKE-HOU nonstop service on March 8th.


Canada and the Midwest make up the biggest source of tourists for South Padre Island.


I'm pretty sure the largest source of tourists for South Padre Island, are people from Texas (Houston/San Antonio/Austin/e.t.c). If you combine MFE, BRO, and HRL at peak there is only around 17 PDEW from IND.

SumChristianus wrote:
Thank you MidwestIndy.
SEA at 265 PDEW is quite incredible, but must be effects of the nonstop and peak summer. DL could easily serve it in summer, but I'd expect reductions in IND-MSP and IND-SLC as flows would be rearranged.
Do you know anymore about the UA IND-LAX rumor; I haven't been able to find anything on it.

They might not all call it as such but IND seems on track to having large DL, WN, and G4 focus cities; the new triple crown.

My next hope is for B6 to come on BOS and FLL, but WN seems to have saturated both of those markets at present.

UA went back up to 3x daily IND-DEN in next summer's schedule, but is now at 2x E75 1x 319 beginning in June?, seems an odd cut for the peak season as its 2x 320 1x E75 in May. They also took mainline off of IND-ORD for much of 2018 (last time I looked) but SFO is back at 2x 319 in March. They just don't seem to do as well in IND as DL and AA. Perhaps not enough connecting capacity at hubs? Their ORD schedule looks like a constriction pipe of ERJs and CRJs compared to DL at ATL (of course DL is serving the larger Florida market) but it seems as if they need a big capacity increase system-wide in order to make growth on one route sustainable by providing enough connecting seats.
Once again, thanks for all of your nice analysis.


Yeah I could see DL IND-SEA working really well for DL, and if DL doesn't decide to try it (even though they probably will) WN could make it work.

According to someone who works at UA, a while back he was told by a manager that they are looking at the possibility of the flight. Because UA wants to build up LAX.

Less mainline to DEN is more than likely a result of 2x daily to SFO.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:59 pm

Then you better call the convention & visitors bureau and tell them they're wrong.

http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... ef9de.html
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:11 pm

stlgph wrote:
Then you better call the convention & visitors bureau and tell them they're wrong.

http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... ef9de.html

Maybe they're driving there...
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:15 pm

All the more reason to fly.
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:24 pm

Did everything did down on WN IND-BNA?
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:25 pm

stlgph wrote:
Then you better call the convention & visitors bureau and tell them they're wrong.

http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... ef9de.html


The article seems to not include Texas in their numbers but here are the Visitor Stats from the Visitors Bureau itself: http://www.myspi.org/egov/apps/document ... mit=Search

In terms of percentage of tourists from Texas at South Padre Island
Winter
22.6%
Spring
65.8%
Summer
88.9%
Fall
48.4%

So yes Texas does make up a bulk of travel to South Padre Island
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
stl07
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:38 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Then you better call the convention & visitors bureau and tell them they're wrong.

http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... ef9de.html

Maybe they're driving there...

I do remember that G4 specifically launched BLV-Destin b/c of drivers so you never know.
Also, welcome to a.net !
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:40 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Did everything die down on WN IND-BNA?

Sorry meant die down not did down and thanks stl07
Now that we have Sarasota, West Palm Beach would be the next logical Florida addition: 37.4 PDEW in Q3 but average fare of $207 as opposed to $161 for FLL, a 222.5 PDEW market, and 113.5 PDEW for MIA at $191. Probably enough for 2x weekly Allegiant or Sun Country, or 1x weekly Southwest operation, probably winter seasonal.
South Florida is much larger in Q1, however.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:04 am

SumChristianus wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
Did everything die down on WN IND-BNA?

Sorry meant die down not did down and thanks stl07
Now that we have Sarasota, West Palm Beach would be the next logical Florida addition: 37.4 PDEW in Q3 but average fare of $207 as opposed to $161 for FLL, a 222.5 PDEW market, and 113.5 PDEW for MIA at $191. Probably enough for 2x weekly Allegiant or Sun Country, or 1x weekly Southwest operation, probably winter seasonal.
South Florida is much larger in Q1, however.


I don't think anything has died down with respect to IND-BNA, its just that WN adjusts their schedules on Schedule Extensions, and they haven't had one of those since the very beginning of November. So if IND-BNA gets added it could possibly be added on February 8th when WN extends its schedule next (but I am not holding my breath). So far IND has gotten lucky, and in each of the last three schedule extensions from WN, there has been at least one new route added (CUN, AUS, OAK), so maybe IND will get lucky again.

I think the PDEW to PBI is higher than 37, it's just that many are choosing to just fly into FLL instead since G4 to FLL is 5x weekly-2x daily, and WN to FLL is 1-3x daily depending on the time of the year. In the past, IND-FLL on G4 was 2x-4x weekly and WN IND-FLL was 1x daily, so then the PDEW to PBI was higher than it is today. All in all though IND has Florida pretty well covered, VPS/JAX/SFB/MCO/TPA/PIE/SRQ/RSW/PGD/MIA/FLL covers almost any destination you need to get to, or at least puts it within a reasonable drive (except Key West).

Once SAN goes year-round and PDX/SAT is added, there aren't going to really be any sizable holes left out of IND.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:03 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Once SAN goes year-round and PDX/SAT is added, there aren't going to really be any sizable holes left out of IND.


There is no MKE, BDL, BNA, MEM, CLE and only service to PIT is on a carrier that people outside Airliners.net have never heard of.

Smaller unserved markets would include OKC and ABQ. Not sure there is any kind of demand to those locations. I don't know if we'll ever see nonstop service to those locations in my lifetime, but the previous six could use RJ service. Would be nice if IND and the City of Indianapolis (along with associated business groups) could work out an incentive program with an airline to pick up all six destinations.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:09 am

stl07 wrote:
SumChristianus wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Then you better call the convention & visitors bureau and tell them they're wrong.

http://www.valleymorningstar.com/news/l ... ef9de.html

Maybe they're driving there...

I do remember that G4 specifically launched BLV-Destin b/c of drivers so you never know.
Also, welcome to a.net !


Exactly the point. Glad someone gets it.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:13 am

I forgot to add STL to my list of unserved markets.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:47 am

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Once SAN goes year-round and PDX/SAT is added, there aren't going to really be any sizable holes left out of IND.


There is no MKE, BDL, BNA, MEM, CLE and only service to PIT is on a carrier that people outside Airliners.net have never heard of.

Smaller unserved markets would include OKC and ABQ. Not sure there is any kind of demand to those locations. I don't know if we'll ever see nonstop service to those locations in my lifetime, but the previous six could use RJ service. Would be nice if IND and the City of Indianapolis (along with associated business groups) could work out an incentive program with an airline to pick up all six destinations.


None of those are really large unserved markets from IND though..

In the next 2 years I think MKE/MEM will happen on Onejet, and BNA and STL will be served by WN, I wouldn't be surprised if DL added BDL, and G4 could possibly serve ABQ. OKC, PIT, and CLE, I am not sure about.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:11 am

Departs Arrives Flight # Dept. Time Arrival Time Equipment DOW
IND DEN 452 9:20 AM 10:18 AM 73H 1234567
IND DEN 3534 4:00 PM 5:00 PM E70 1234567
IND EWR 3603 5:35 AM 7:43 AM E70 1234567
IND EWR 3468 8:15 AM 10:23 AM E70 1234567
IND EWR 4113 11:52 AM 1:59 PM ERJ 13457
IND EWR 4113 11:52 AM 2:00 PM ERJ 26
IND EWR 4097 1:17 PM 3:25 PM ERJ 7
IND EWR 4097 1:36 PM 3:44 PM ERJ 123456
IND EWR 3442 3:50 PM 5:56 PM E70 7
IND EWR 4802 3:50 PM 5:56 PM ERJ 123456
IND EWR 3633 7:55 PM 9:57 PM E75 123457
IND IAD 6126 10:35 AM 12:08 PM CR7 12345
IND IAD 4881 2:20 PM 3:57 PM ERJ 1234567
IND IAD 6193 7:45 PM 9:14 PM CR7 67
IND IAD 6193 7:50 PM 9:19 PM CR7 12345
IND IAH 1807 7:10 AM 8:47 AM 320 146
IND IAH 1807 7:10 AM 8:48 AM 73H 25
IND IAH 3653 7:10 AM 8:53 AM E70 7
IND IAH 3653 9:00 AM 10:49 AM E70 123456
IND IAH 6220 3:25 PM 5:13 PM E75 7
IND IAH 3648 3:25 PM 5:13 PM E70 123456
IND IAH 4249 6:45 PM 8:30 PM ERJ 123457
IND ORD 3546 6:00 AM 6:14 AM E75 123456
IND ORD 3705 7:40 AM 7:54 AM E70 67
IND ORD 3705 7:50 AM 8:04 AM E70 12345
IND ORD 3621 9:10 AM 9:24 AM E75 1234567
IND ORD 3810 11:05 AM 11:19 AM CRZ 123456
IND ORD 3565 11:05 AM 11:19 AM E75 7
IND ORD 3863 12:48 PM 1:00 PM CRZ 1234567
IND ORD 3826 2:55 PM 3:05 PM CRZ 134567
IND ORD 4561 4:35 PM 4:45 PM CR7 4
IND ORD 3822 4:35 PM 4:45 PM CRZ 15
IND ORD 4561 4:40 PM 4:50 PM CR7 237
IND ORD 2155 6:22 PM 6:35 PM 320 123457
IND ORD 3478 6:22 PM 6:36 PM E75 6
IND SFO 500 7:35 AM 9:38 AM 320 2
IND SFO 500 7:35 AM 9:40 AM 737 13467
IND SFO 500 7:43 AM 9:48 AM 737 5


Here are UA's IND departures in January. Pulled from their cargo timetable, it's not a perfect list, some of the codes 737 are ambiguous, and it's averaged over a month, so not always accurate for a given day. Its a start, however.
Here's a link to there full timetable for January.https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Nc55eDXvFcp8HQzCZM82giOAC-MOtvmw
And December's https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dReA4kh1u3UyhLwB7hBe4aOPDwRDyCaH with some interesting filters added. Be warned, some flights are missing from December's version. BUF-EWR is missing, and there are few odd military charters sprinkled throughout.
I also have a file, Q3 DB1B filtered to connections through IND:https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-XVJJ--GDzpc9SWu277pWYa_4U-V5cmI
Its interesting to see that there are 473 PDEW connecting which I assume fills 473 departing and 473 arriving seats every day. Its mostly WN, but DL and AA run around 90 PDEW and UA, I think around 40 PDEW.
Kind of weird that some fly routings like ATL-IND-ORD (DL to UA interline for example) when there are so many nonstop flights and some connecting options, but someone's doing it.
A Traddie wannaby---UA DL LH NW AA --- Next IND-SFO-IND UA A320/B739
"Born in Wonder, Brought to Wisdom"
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:03 am

October Load Factors:
DL: IND-MCO-89.6%; MCO-IND-93.5%
DL: IND-LAX-85.4%; LAX-IND-78.3%
DL: IND-SLC-93.6; SLC-IND-97.4%
DL: IND-BOS-83.9%; BOS-IND-87.7%
DL: IND-RDU-80.5%; RDU-IND-84.1%
*July DL: IND-CUN-92.2%; CUN-IND-95.8%

G4: IND-AUS-83.4%; AUS-IND-83.8%

F9: IND-LAS-87.1%; LAS-IND-89.6%
F9: IND-MCO-87.2%; MCO-IND-91.4%
F9: IND-DEN-89.9%; DEN-IND-93.1%;

WN: IND-EWR-63.6%; EWR-IND-66.5%
WN: IND-MDW-67.5%; MDW-IND-71.4%
WN: IND-BWI-78.3%; BWI-IND-80.9%
*Final full month-WN: IND-DCA-81.7%; DCA-IND-85.3%
WN: IND-MCI-84.5%; MCI-IND-81.9%
WN: IND-DAL-91.6%; DAL-IND-95.5%
WN: IND-PHX-91.3%; PHX-IND-82.0%
WN: IND-RSW-90.0%; RSW-IND-93.0%
WN: IND-LAX-93.1%; LAX-IND-91.5%
WN: IND-LAS-95.5%; LAS-IND-93.5%
WN: IND-DEN-95.4%; DEN-IND-95.9%
WN: IND-MCO-96.3%; MCO-IND-95.6%


AS: IND-SEA-84.36%; SEA-IND-90.7%
VX: IND-SFO-55.0%; SFO-IND-68.28%

UA: IND-SFO-77.3%; SFO-IND-79.9%

AA: IND-LAX-89.6%; LAX-IND-87.8%

Any others I should add in?
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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nikeson13
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:22 am

Im curious, is there anyway to see SFO-IND on UA by a flight basis? As in is the morning SFO-IND running 100% and the afternoon 60% to make 80%? What's the makeup of the 80% and 77%? The morning SFO-IND flights I've taken are always 100% full or a row empty if that...
Nikolas
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:43 am

nikeson13 wrote:
Im curious, is there anyway to see SFO-IND on UA by a flight basis? As in is the morning SFO-IND running 100% and the afternoon 60% to make 80%? What's the makeup of the 80% and 77%? The morning SFO-IND flights I've taken are always 100% full or a row empty if that...


The morning IND-SFO leg tends to be around 70-75%, just because they usually use the 737 or A320 instead of the A319, I think Economy and First Class are usually pretty well booked but Economy plus usually is lagging. The evening IND-SFO is around 81-84% partially because it is almost strictly A319.

SFO-IND maybe be different though, plus it would depend on the day of the week...

SumChristianus wrote:
Here are UA's IND departures in January. Pulled from their cargo timetable, it's not a perfect list, some of the codes 737 are ambiguous, and it's averaged over a month, so not always accurate for a given day. Its a start, however.
Here's a link to there full timetable for January.https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Nc55eDXvFcp8HQzCZM82giOAC-MOtvmw
And December's https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dReA4kh1u3UyhLwB7hBe4aOPDwRDyCaH with some interesting filters added. Be warned, some flights are missing from December's version. BUF-EWR is missing, and there are few odd military charters sprinkled throughout.
I also have a file, Q3 DB1B filtered to connections through IND:https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-XVJJ--GDzpc9SWu277pWYa_4U-V5cmI
Its interesting to see that there are 473 PDEW connecting which I assume fills 473 departing and 473 arriving seats every day. Its mostly WN, but DL and AA run around 90 PDEW and UA, I think around 40 PDEW.
Kind of weird that some fly routings like ATL-IND-ORD (DL to UA interline for example) when there are so many nonstop flights and some connecting options, but someone's doing it.


Thanks for sharing it is good to have a reference to compare to, for when next year comes around.
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:46 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:


Thanks for sharing, so for 2016 here is what the numbers look like to Canada in terms of number of outbound and inbound passengers
Calgary-6,960
Montreal-15,570 (21.3% growth from 2015)
Toronto (This one Surprised me)-only 10,630
Vancouver-14,290 (17.6% growth from 2015)

How IND ranks by peers airports in 2016 (ABQ, AUS, CVG, CLE, CMH, BDL, IND, JAX, MCI, MKE, STL, SAT, RDU, PVD, PIT, MSY, BNA)
Calgary: 1.MSY(14,130), 2.BNA(14,041), 3.AUS(11,980), 4.PIT(10,420), 5.MCI(9,850), 6.STL(9,540), 7.SAT(8,880), 8.RDU(8,330), 9.CMH(7,190), 10.IND(6,960)
Montreal: 1.MSY(23,050), 2.RDU(22,060), 3.BNA(18,735), 4.AUS(18,690), 5.STL(16,100), 6.IND(15,570), 7.CMH(14,450), 8.CLE(13,970), 9.PIT(12,350), 10.MCI(11,750)
Toronto: IND not in top ten (#13)
Vancouver: 1.AUS(26,030), 2.MSY(20,380), 3.BNA(19,305), 4.STL(16,370), 5.RDU(15,770), 6.PIT(14,700), 7.MCI(14,680), 8.IND(14,290), 9.SAT(12,800), 10.CMH(12,400)

IND had 67,050 total to Canada, which ranked #55 throughout the US
Other peers: #60 CVG (56,180), #58 CMH(63,070), #57 PIT(65,120), #54 CLE(69,120), #52 MCI(75,690), #51 SAT(75,750), #48 STL(91,810), #47 RDU(97,300), #42 BNA(132,786), #41 AUS(139,180), #39 MSY(146,750)

Based on these numbers I would expect more Canadian service to MSY and AUS...
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:42 am

Based on those numbers, is there enough demand to justify a Montreal flight? Is there a hub at that airport? I wonder if demand between IND and Canada is so poor because of the lack of service. Perhaps this could be like SFO where the nonstop flight stimulates demand.

Edit: I'd like to add that PIT has service to Montreal starting in May on Air Canada Express.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:55 am

Indy wrote:
Based on those numbers, is there enough demand to justify a Montreal flight? Is there a hub at that airport? I wonder if demand between IND and Canada is so poor because of the lack of service. Perhaps this could be like SFO where the nonstop flight stimulates demand.

Edit: I'd like to add that PIT has service to Montreal starting in May on Air Canada Express.


AC has a hub at Montreal. I am a little surprised PIT got a flight there before some others, but I think they ponied up some money for it. Maybe others didn't want to spend it.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:57 am

Indy wrote:
Based on those numbers, is there enough demand to justify a Montreal flight? Is there a hub at that airport? I wonder if demand between IND and Canada is so poor because of the lack of service. Perhaps this could be like SFO where the nonstop flight stimulates demand.

Edit: I'd like to add that PIT has service to Montreal starting in May on Air Canada Express.


Montreal (YUL) is AC's second largest hub, so there are a lot of connections that can be made there, plus due to the french connections they have int'l service to a lot of interesting destinations (CMN, BRU, ALG, LYS, e.t.c plus non-french speaking places like TLV, OTP, and ATH). Considering IND is a larger market to YUL and Canada as a whole, if PIT-YUL works I can see IND-YUL working as well. However, that may coincide with a drop from 3x-2x daily for YYZ-IND which I wouldn't mind, considering YUL is now larger than YYZ in terms of O&D from IND.

1x daily CR2 should work
2018: AMS, ATL, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, DCA, DFW, DTW, EWR, FLL, FRA, HPN, JFK, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, MAD, MIA, MSP, ORD, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, TPA, TXL, ZRH....Loading....
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:40 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
Based on those numbers, is there enough demand to justify a Montreal flight? Is there a hub at that airport? I wonder if demand between IND and Canada is so poor because of the lack of service. Perhaps this could be like SFO where the nonstop flight stimulates demand.

Edit: I'd like to add that PIT has service to Montreal starting in May on Air Canada Express.


Montreal (YUL) is AC's second largest hub, so there are a lot of connections that can be made there, plus due to the french connections they have int'l service to a lot of interesting destinations (CMN, BRU, ALG, LYS, e.t.c plus non-french speaking places like TLV, OTP, and ATH). Considering IND is a larger market to YUL and Canada as a whole, if PIT-YUL works I can see IND-YUL working as well. However, that may coincide with a drop from 3x-2x daily for YYZ-IND which I wouldn't mind, considering YUL is now larger than YYZ in terms of O&D from IND.

1x daily CR2 should work


IND-YUL looks like 21.3 PDEW from the table. I can't belive IND-YYZ, served 3x daily, is that small. Could there be some error in the data as IND-YYZ shows only 14.6 PDEW?
U.S. to Canada demand may be rather large overall, but on an indivudual city pair basis its incredibly small. Canada probably isn't much of a draw from the U.S. though, and the border fees, air taxes, and airport fees on transborder flights make it worse.
If AC can make YUL-PIT work, though, smaller than YUL-IND work, though, I see YUL-IND as possible by 2020.
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OSSYULYYZ
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:47 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
Based on those numbers, is there enough demand to justify a Montreal flight? Is there a hub at that airport? I wonder if demand between IND and Canada is so poor because of the lack of service. Perhaps this could be like SFO where the nonstop flight stimulates demand.

Edit: I'd like to add that PIT has service to Montreal starting in May on Air Canada Express.


Montreal (YUL) is AC's second largest hub, so there are a lot of connections that can be made there, plus due to the french connections they have int'l service to a lot of interesting destinations (CMN, BRU, ALG, LYS, e.t.c plus non-french speaking places like TLV, OTP, and ATH). Considering IND is a larger market to YUL and Canada as a whole, if PIT-YUL works I can see IND-YUL working as well. However, that may coincide with a drop from 3x-2x daily for YYZ-IND which I wouldn't mind, considering YUL is now larger than YYZ in terms of O&D from IND.

1x daily CR2 should work


IND-YUL looks like 21.3 PDEW from the table. I can't belive IND-YYZ, served 3x daily, is that small. Could there be some error in the data as IND-YYZ shows only 14.6 PDEW?
U.S. to Canada demand may be rather large overall, but on an indivudual city pair basis its incredibly small. Canada probably isn't much of a draw from the U.S. though, and the border fees, air taxes, and airport fees on transborder flights make it worse.
If AC can make YUL-PIT work, though, smaller than YUL-IND work, though, I see YUL-IND as possible by 2020.


While sometimes up to half the people on the IND-YYZ connect with me to YUL, I have a hard time seeing this happening. AC does have a hub at YUL, but the transborder flights are mainly made up of Delta, American, WestJet and United. I can see an ULCC trying to take advantage of these stats and offering IND-PBG or IND-BTV thus avoiding the border fees. I can also see either Delta or WestJet (although I don't think the Dash-8 has the capacity to fly the distance) coming in especially of the new JV. AC does flights from YYZ to smaller airports (compared to New York or the West Coast: LAX, SFO etc) and that is the reason that YYZ-IND exists. I find it unlikely, but not impossible, that IND-YUL would be flown on Air Canada...
 
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2018

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:29 pm

Indy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Once SAN goes year-round and PDX/SAT is added, there aren't going to really be any sizable holes left out of IND.


There is no MKE, BDL, BNA, MEM, CLE and only service to PIT is on a carrier that people outside Airliners.net have never heard of.

Smaller unserved markets would include OKC and ABQ. Not sure there is any kind of demand to those locations. I don't know if we'll ever see nonstop service to those locations in my lifetime, but the previous six could use RJ service. Would be nice if IND and the City of Indianapolis (along with associated business groups) could work out an incentive program with an airline to pick up all six destinations.

Just to give a little historical perspective, I worked in Indy back in 1985. Back then, OH (Delta Connection) flew to MKE 3x and CLE 4x daily. They were small A/C 34 seats max. They weren't very full. There just wasn't that much demand.

IND-MEM had good coverage by RC, with at least 3 DC9s a day. I don't have any direct knowledge of their numbers, but based on my knowledge of FWA-MEM, I'd say around 90% were connecting. Without the hub still there, it may not be worth it.

IND-STL was served by both OZ and TW and combined had like 12 flights a day on DC9s all the way to L1011s. My how times change. Even then, it was only a 4 hr drive or less.

Back then UA was all mainline to ORD and DEN. I think part of reason for UA's decline (such as it is) is due to smaller a/c. Don't forget the City of Indianapolis put up a truckload of cash to land UA's MOC2 (maintenance base), which they promptly closed, leaving a bad taste in the mouth of INDY taxpayers, who might still be slightly bitter about that. I'm not saying these are the reasons, but they may play a small part.
Is just me, or is flying not as much fun anymore?
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