Midwestindy wrote:SumChristianus wrote:I've been working through some DB1B tables and have created a rudimentary table for IND connections. Interestingly TPA-MDW seems the largest connecting market through IND (7 PDEW) while EWR-ATL, ATL-BOS, BOS-MDW, DEN-RSW, and HOU-MDW all show up highly as connecting markets.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-XVJJ--GDzpc9SWu277pWYa_4U-V5cmIFor DL, their largest market after ATL on IND-ATL flights is IND-TPA (27 PDEW) , MCO, FLL, MSY, and RSW also showing up highly.
At that rate I think they'll restart at least a weekend CR7 to TPA.
RDU sees about 10 PDEW through ATL from IND, in addition to the nonstop IND-RDU passengers. A third daily flight could eventually be a possibility.
Just for kicks, with the CVG upgauges for DL and their growth in the general area, how about 3x daily CRJ IND-CVG? Highly unlikely, but maybe only a little more outrageous than AAs 6x daily ER4s PHL-JFK?
Interesting, I pulled some other routes for DL only pax:
*indicates already served city pair by DL
IND-TPA Q1: 34 PDEW, Q2: IND-TPA 29 PDEW
IND-FLL Q1: 37 PDEW, Q2: IND-FLL 41 PDEW
*IND-MIA Q1: 31 PDEW, Q2 IND-MIA 24 PDEW
*IND-RSW Q1: 31 PDEW, Q2: IND-RSW 35 PDEW
*IND-MCO Q1: 83 PDEW, Q2: IND-MCO 94 PDEW
Is that total, nonstop+connecting passengers?
Looking at DLs largest domestic markets from IND. (Q3 2017) I put the largest markets in terms of passengers they carry but do not serve directly in bold. FLL, LAS, AUS, and SAN (sooooort of) seem like possibilities from this list.
City Passenger Number (Divide by 9.1 for Directional PDEW) Average Fare
ATL 2559 $195.60
LGA 2002 $202.20
MSP 1535 $274.11
BOS 1368 $227.55
MCO 779 $149.11
LAX 740 $269.60
RDU 633 $215.91
DTW 539 $280.76
JFK 450 $202.55
SLC 399 $302.28
SEA 379 $266.13
SAN 335 $222.06
TPA 264 $183.66
PDX 258 $268.65SFO 254 $270.46
LAS 238 $218.48
FLL 236 $193.90
MSY 221 $185.33
RSW 217 $187.26
PBI 196 $228.49
JAX 162 $251.12
MEM 155 $301.85
SRQ 142 $194.40
AUS 142 $230.78
PHL 137 $243.17
PNS 136 $226.79
CHS 134 $252.59
DFW 132 $245.15
BDL 128 $235.00
DAB 125 $170.98
MIA 123 $184.07
SAT 121 $251.20
DEN 120 $197.08
Grand Total 20780 $245.09
The largest indirect markets (only passengers who travel indirectly from IND on all carriers) are as follows.
Sum of PASSENGERS (Divide by 9.1 for Directional PDEW) Average Fare
SFO 1365 $272.61
SEA 1353 $230.99
SAN 1229 $226.06
PDX 1066 $246.46
LAX 873 $265.86
AUS 864 $231.46
MCO 789 $147.32
LAS 711 $209.72
SAT 692 $233.25
SNA 687 $252.07
SMF 648 $288.00
MSY 638 $182.76
SLC 624 $247.77
FLL 624 $180.93
BOS 622 $210.08
SJC 578 $259.51
PHX 563 $235.56
TPA 543 $187.90
BDL 531 $227.95
RDU 485 $210.34
JAX 435 $244.96
DEN 427 $201.86
PHL 416 $260.36
ONT 414 $278.14
RSW 388 $187.05
SJU 377 $226.74
CHS 372 $228.90
PVD 358 $208.67
MSP 346 $231.89
HNL 338 $473.17
PBI 335 $208.05
ORF 334 $230.20
ABQ 332 $244.12
OAK 329 $271.24
SFO/OAK will probably be way down as the full year impact of VX is reported and WN enters IND-OAK, but its interesting to see how many West Coast and Florida markets are on this list.
Also here is the origin city for traffic on all carriers connecting through IND.
Origin city for traffic connecting through IND. Passengers (Divide by 9.1 for Directional PDEW) City Fare
ORD 320 $276.35
ATL 307 $229.76
EWR 273 $178.34
DEN 219 $215.96
BOS 212 $189.53
DCA 170 $250.41
LAX 153 $315.83
DTW 135 $326.08
TPA 133 $175.12
MDW 131 $131.24
BWI 128 $177.78
CLT 103 $287.76
RSW 100 $187.44
MCI 84 $184.55
DFW 84 $323.42
LGA 82 $263.97
LAS 75 $256.56
PHL 73 $346.08
MSP 68 $354.59
HOU 68 $144.63
SEA 67 $226.19
MCO 65 $181.53
SFO 61 $489.96
PHX 53 $289.34
AUS 50 $221.51
IAD 50 $302.11
About 35 people a day from ORD connect through IND (and sometimes another airport) to their final destination, for example.
Sorry for the rudimentary nature of all my numbers (having to divide by 9.1 to get directional PDEW) but I'm still learning Excel.
All numbers are from the Q3 2017 USDOT DB1B report.
On G4 I think there base will scale up quickly, I think CVG will always be bigger for them, but they have a lot of potential here.
Its amazing to have three airlines significantly committed to IND, DL, WN, and G4, I think its good balance, but I'm always impressed at load factors on IND flights compared with the market sizes given through O&D reports.
I don't know about F9, I thought it was Jan/Feb though, but can't remember where I read that.
Does 170 PDEW connecting to international destinations through ATL on DL sound right to you? I compared T100 numbers to DB1B for all DL routings that included a IND-ATL segment and came up 170 PDEW short, which I believe means they are connecting internationally, right?
The French Consul General was at IND today meeting with DL and the air service development team at the airport....I wonder what was discussed....
https://twitter.com/GJ_Lacroix/status/9 ... 6005875719
Probably marketing on the France side for the CDG flight.
Much larger Asian population though, and probably stronger business ties as well...
On TPAC service, PDX is on the west-coast as well, so that's another advantage. From what I've read total Asia demand is around 90 PDEW from IND (as of 2011), and I think given the route length disperse nature of the demand, intermediate connecting options, and supposedly low Asia yields that if we ever see an Asian service it will be after 2030.
AUS might see such service sooner though.