The Indy chamber hosted an event for Mario Rodriguez this evening, I wasn't there but the Indy Chamber had a few tweets about it:

"What’s to expect in the next 5 to 10 years from @INDairport: more ultra low cost carriers, growth of FedEx, more Mexico + Latin America flights according to..."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 3713642497

“It’s not us driving increased air cargo, it’s you bringing this growth” @INDairport will be expanding the air cargo facility of FedEx by $2B."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 5836112896

Midwestindy wrote:

The Indy chamber hosted an event for Mario Rodriguez this evening, I wasn't there but the Indy Chamber had a few tweets about it:

"What’s to expect in the next 5 to 10 years from @INDairport: more ultra low cost carriers, growth of FedEx, more Mexico + Latin America flights according to..."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 3713642497

Will this mean NK and/or SY starting service out of IND? F9 and G4 are both already at IND, and NK and SY are the only remaining U.S.-based ULCCs that do not already serve IND.

Midwestindy wrote:

The Indy chamber hosted an event for Mario Rodriguez this evening, I wasn't there but the Indy Chamber had a few tweets about it:

"What’s to expect in the next 5 to 10 years from @INDairport: more ultra low cost carriers, growth of FedEx, more Mexico + Latin America flights according to..."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 3713642497

“It’s not us driving increased air cargo, it’s you bringing this growth” @INDairport will be expanding the air cargo facility of FedEx by $2B."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 5836112896

I thought FedEx was expanding by $1.5 billion. $2 billion huh? Whether the amount is $1.5 or $2 billion, I still haven't seen any details. Has anyone seen anything new on this?

Indy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

The Indy chamber hosted an event for Mario Rodriguez this evening, I wasn't there but the Indy Chamber had a few tweets about it:

"What’s to expect in the next 5 to 10 years from @INDairport: more ultra low cost carriers, growth of FedEx, more Mexico + Latin America flights according to..."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 3713642497

“It’s not us driving increased air cargo, it’s you bringing this growth” @INDairport will be expanding the air cargo facility of FedEx by $2B."
https://twitter.com/IndyChamber/status/ ... 5836112896

I thought FedEx was expanding by $1.5 billion. $2 billion huh? Whether the amount is $1.5 or $2 billion, I still haven't seen any details. Has anyone seen anything new on this?

They had announced a few other investments before the 1.5 billion, so those are likely included.

I wonder where the $2 billion ranks in terms of investment in an airport by an airline (cargo or passenger) in the U.S.

Haven't updated the thread in a while since I have been busy, but here is what I have noticed
AA is making IND-LAX 2x daily year-round, I wonder if DL will respond to this. Looks like DL is adding the 738 back for most of Nov/Dec, but that is a long way out
AA is replacing 1 of the MD80s on IND-DFW with an A319, reflects the gradual phasing out of the S80s
AA IND-ORD mainline comes back for June, maybe this means it could eventually go year-round
AA ORD-IND JUN 9>8 JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 9>8
AA CLT-IND JUN 9>8 JUL 9>8 AUG 9>8 SEP 9>8 OCT 9>8 NOV 10>8, reflects year-round mainline being added back

DL IND-CUN will run on the 737ER through June 2nd now, it looks like they are trying to scare WN away
DL IND-MIA gone for the summer, haven't seen anything about this route.
DL IND-MSP will change for June to 2x A319, 1xA320, 1xB717, 1xCR9 from 3x MD90 and 2xCR9

The AA vs. DL tug of war is pretty interesting, it looks like AA has the IND-LAX route but DL has the IND-NYC routes

The WN schedule extension for October/Fall break happens on Thursday, and I could see some frequency changes. Last year WN ran a lot of routes over 90% LF, so some of those routes could see changes
IND-MCO was at 96.3% with 2x daily 737, could go 2x738 or 3x on Saturdays
IND-LAS was at 95.5% with a mix of 737 and 738, probably should go all 738 on this one
IND-DEN was at 95.4% with 3x daily 737 and 1x daily 738, more 738s on this route could be possible
IND-HOU was at 95.6% with 1x daily 737 (except on weekends), more 738s on this route could be possible
IND-LAX was at 93.1% with 1x daily 737, more 738s on this route could be possible, and maybe even an extra weekend frequency
IND-DAL was at 91.6% with 1x daily 737 (except on weekends), more 738s could be possible
IND-PHX was at 91.3% with 1x daily 737, more 738s on this route could be possible, and maybe even an extra weekend frequency

We will see if IND-AUS remains through this extension

Sucks we didn't get anything from Allegiant today

Maybe we will get some LUV from Southwest tomorrow

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ibthebigd wrote:

Sucks we didn't get anything from Allegiant today

Maybe we will get some LUV from Southwest tomorrow

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Some frequency changes

IND-LAS gains a sunday flight, goes 2x-3x 738
IND-BOS goes down to 1x daily
IND-EWR loses a saturday flight
IND-DAL gains a saturday flight, gains 738 weekdays
IND-FLL gains a saturday flight
IND-RSW goes down to 1x daily on weekdays loses most of its 738s, but gains a saturday flight and maintains its sunday 2x daily
IND-MCO gains 2 saturday flights and 1 sunday flight. Goes all 738s during weekdays
IND-TPA goes down to 1x daily on weekdays, but gains a saturday flight and maintains its sunday 3x daily
IND-DEN gains 2 738s on weekdays, gains a sunday frequency
IND-HOU goes all 738 except on Sunday
IND-PHX goes all 738/max

Good amount of 738!

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Hey, not sure if anyone knows what this might be, but I noticed a Miami Air flight (737) on Wednesday landing at IND. Looks like it left Chalons, France, stopped in KEF and then continued to IND. Looked as if it was parking on the GA ramp. Any clue as to what this was?

Also, I've recently seen some Sun Country flights operating at IND. Are those charters? And if so, to where?

So, Bankers Life Fieldhouse is getting a name change as CNO Financial Group want a different partnership with the Pacers (One that doesn't involve putting their name on the arena)

Well, Southwest Airlines is the official airline of the Indiana Pacers.

Would you guys be in support of the possibility of a Southwest Airlines Fieldhouse/Arena?? I know I would like it, and it could help WN further build up in the IND market.

Republic Airways Fieldhouse

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zackary747 wrote:

So, Bankers Life Fieldhouse is getting a name change as CNO Financial Group want a different partnership with the Pacers (One that doesn't involve putting their name on the arena)

Well, Southwest Airlines is the official airline of the Indiana Pacers.

Would you guys be in support of the possibility of a Southwest Airlines Fieldhouse/Arena?? I know I would like it, and it could help WN further build up in the IND market.

Very possible Southwest could put their name on the field house, they are doing a tremendous amount of advertising here and at games. Although, my bets are on Salesforce, Angie's List (ANGI homeservices), Lilly, Cummins, Anthem, or maybe Finish Line or Lids if they were in better financial standing.

https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... dy-airport

The airport is adding Global Entry kiosks due to the increases in international flights. The airport is also teaming up with the CBP to offer IND as a temporary interview site in April and May.

Saturday afternoons (like at other airports) could be very congested with the Paris and Cancun flights arriving at almost the same time, so this should help

Could it lead to more international flights?

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ibthebigd wrote:

Could it lead to more international flights?

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I don't think it should have much of an effect on service. Airports with less Intl than IND have kiosks. I'm surprised IND didn't have them already.

DL has made ATL-IND 763 bookable for May 24th with a 2:31pm arrival in IND.
DL has extended IND-MSP 757 service through the beginning of June
DL has also sprinkled in more A321 service
I'll check for more schedule changes after enrilla posts his thread

Jshank83 wrote:

ibthebigd wrote:

Could it lead to more international flights?

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I don't think it should have much of an effect on service. Airports with less Intl than IND have kiosks. I'm surprised IND didn't have them already.

There never really was a need for Global entry kiosks, since most of the flights going through customs where from CUN, and a large majority of pax going to CUN don't have Global entry.

December LFs: Note that Outbound LFs will be higher than inbound since many travelers came back after New Years
AA
IND-PHX-90.6%, PHX-IND-85.7%
IND-LGA-82.0%, LGA-IND-76.2%
IND-LAX-91.9%, LAX-IND-87.3%
IND-DFW-86.3%, DFW-IND-82.5%
IND-CLT-82.5%, CLT-IND-76.4%
IND-MIA-82.8%, MIA-IND-70.1%
IND-DCA-73.6%, DCA-IND-70.0%
IND-PHL-70.6%, PHL-IND-63.3%
IND-JFK-81.5%, JFK-IND-68.6%

AS
IND-SEA-78.4%,SEA-IND-78.7%
IND-SFO-62.3%, SFO-IND-55.2%

DL(mainline plus regional)
IND-RSW-91.1%, RSW-IND-52.1%
IND-MCO-90.5%, MCO-IND-85.3%
IND-SLC-94.4%, SLC-IND-85.2%

F9
IND-TPA-88.7%, TPA-IND-82.8%
IND-RSW-95.9%, RSW-IND-80.9%
IND-MCO-94.9%, MCO-IND-91.1%
IND-LAS-95.9%, LAS-IND-93.2%
IND-DEN-89.2%, DEN-IND-88.8%
Outbound LF of 93.1%

G4
IND-AUS-73.9%, AUS-IND-72.4%
IND-AZA-84.4%, AZA-IND-77.1%
IND-FLL-87.7%, FLL-IND-72.5%
IND-JAX-75.9%, JAX-IND-75.3%
IND-LAS-90.2%, LAS-IND-80.0%
IND-PGD-92.5%, PGD-IND-82.3%
IND-PIE-79.7%, PIE-IND-72.4%
IND-SFB-82.4%, SFB-IND-75.3%

UA
IND-SFO-69.1%, SFO-IND-69.4%
IND-IAD-90.5%, IAD-IND-83.0%
IND-EWR-89.5%, EWR-IND-88.0%
IND-DEN-89.4%, DEN-IND-87.6%

WN
IND-FLL-94.5%, FLL-IND-83.0%
IND-EWR-68.9%, EWR-IND-59.0%
IND-MCO-91.5%, MCO-IND-88.8%
IND-PHX-90.4%, PHX-IND-89.6%
IND-RSW-93.4%, RSW-IND-84.2%

I understand the market is still very young for them, but doesn't appear AS(VX) SFO service is off to a great start. Do you think we will see them give it a full summer season before making any decisions moving forward?

pgphonehome wrote:

I understand the market is still very young for them, but doesn't appear AS(VX) SFO service is off to a great start. Do you think we will see them give it a full summer season before making any decisions moving forward?

We'll see, as you probably know, winter is the slower season to the Bay Area, so I expect summer LFs to be higher. Also, a lot of the other new VX/AS routes aren't doing that well so we'll see.

MCI-SFO-53.8%, SFO-MCI-52.3%
BNA-SFO-58.1%, SFO-BNA-62.3%
RDU-SFO-63.9%, SFO-RDU-58.3%
BWI-SFO-74.0%, SFO-BWI-69.5%
MSY-SFO-71.2%, SFO-MSY-75.0%

I think these load factors to SFO are so low because United responded by throwing more frequencies. UA is also getting 75 percent load fills because of this. It'll go up over time once the competition settles by means of frequency changes.

What is the completion factor on Virgin SFO-IND it seems to be canceled quite often the last few weeks..

Are they short on planes or something...

Don’t see how they can keep burning money on this route

COSPN wrote:

What is the completion factor on Virgin SFO-IND it seems to be canceled quite often the last few weeks..

Are they short on planes or something...

Don’t see how they can keep burning money on this route

To my knowledge it was only cancelled once to twice last week.

As stated in the stats by MidwestIndy all the SFO-Medium size market (and some large markets such as BWI/MSY) routes are experiencing load factors of this type. United added an extra frequency on the routes causing the load factors to go down for both airlines. I wouldn't be too concerned here and according to some people I talked to the flight is full most of the time. Frequency changes are needed to change the data drastically. There is more to it than just a load factor percentage.

The IND Terminal Optimization Committee met on March 20th. Does anyone know what was discussed?

I think it may be related to this..

"Approval of Delegation of Authority for the IND Terminal Campus Optimization,
Carpet and Electrical – Phase I Construction at Indianapolis International Airport
(Project No. I-16-010)"

"The scope of construction consists of (i) the purchase (via a cooperative purchasing agreement)
and (ii) the installation of carpet, and (iii) the installation of an under-carpet electrical system
which will support charging stations for passenger electronic devices. The areas of construction
are the east end of Concourses A and B where Southwest Airlines and United Airlines currently
operate, respectively. "

As long as they limit it to things like this and not the silly ideas that were floated that included removing some of the moving walkways and adding tables & chairs and I believe more vendors. The flow through the concourses is wonderful and those changes would be foolish. Don't make changes for the sake of making changes. IND works and gets the awards that it gets because it is so easy to navigate. Despite the length of the concourse it isn't difficult to get from one end to the other. Remove the moving walkways and start adding obstructions and you will watch your awards go bye-bye.

Indy wrote:

IAs long as they limit it to things like this and not the silly ideas that were floated that included removing some of the moving walkways and adding tables & chairs and I believe more vendors. The flow through the concourses is wonderful and those changes would be foolish. Don't make changes for the sake of making changes. IND works and gets the awards that it gets because it is so easy to navigate. Despite the length of the concourse it isn't difficult to get from one end to the other. Remove the moving walkways and start adding obstructions and you will watch your awards go bye-bye.

Some of the ideas were just odd IMO, putting in artificial grass???? I like how the airport is right now, so hopefully they don't change to much..


Anyways though this video: http://www.aviationpros.com/video/12404 ... -in-review, talks about how the airline use agreement is currently in negotiation as it expires December 31, 2018. Before 2010, these negotiations were much more contentious, but the 2011-2015 agreement seemed to be very admired.

"Pam Drenner, regional director of corporate real estate and airport affairs for Delta Air Lines, the Indianapolis agreement “changes the landscape” for airline use agreements at other airports.

Drenner notes IAA’s agreement creates a favorable lease structure with incentives for both parties while ensuring an affordable, predictable cost structure for the airlines. It will also help ensure the long-term success of IND’s new facilities while yielding a positive impact on central Indiana’s economy.

"As a commitment of service to IND, Delta will open a $2.5M new SkyClub at IND just before the new agreement takes effect. “We have increased our lease footprint, up-gauged flights to mainline aircraft, worked with the airport to ensure priority screening and will be rolling out more SkyPriority amenities. Meanwhile, our network team continues to work with John Clark, Marsha Stone, and other airport officials to explore the feasibility of adding new routes.”

http://s3.amazonaws.com/iaa-images/media-releases/Clark-Southwest-Letter.pdf
https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... -officials
https://www.indianapolisairport.com/abo ... ivic-plaza

Hopefully, the airport renegotiates another favorable agreement for both partners!

Is there anything Delta can do to improve the Sky Club? When you look at it compared to other Delta clubs, it is really small and in serious need of updating. Look at what AUS is getting and compare it to what we have now. I know that we cannot get a deck like that because of the design of the terminal. But hopefully there is something that Delta can do to add more space. Or have they used all of the available space with this club?

Indy wrote:

Is there anything Delta can do to improve the Sky Club? When you look at it compared to other Delta clubs, it is really small and in serious need of updating. Look at what AUS is getting and compare it to what we have now. I know that we cannot get a deck like that because of the design of the terminal. But hopefully there is something that Delta can do to add more space. Or have they used all of the available space with this club?

https://www.facebook.com/groups/indairp ... xpand%20it

Someone named Phil brooks mentioned last year that DL was planning to renovate and expand it. So far I haven't heard that, but we may here more about DL's plans at the launch for IND-CDG

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/indairportdotorg/search/?query=%20I%20heard%20they%20are%20going%20to%20renovate%20and%20possibly%20expand%20it

Someone named Phil brooks mentioned last year that DL was planning to renovate and expand it. So far I haven't heard that, but we may here more about DL's plans at the launch for IND-CDG

One person says there is not much room for expansion. Another says they can go to the southeast. What about going up?

Indy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/indairportdotorg/search/?query=%20I%20heard%20they%20are%20going%20to%20renovate%20and%20possibly%20expand%20it

Someone named Phil brooks mentioned last year that DL was planning to renovate and expand it. So far I haven't heard that, but we may here more about DL's plans at the launch for IND-CDG

One person says there is not much room for expansion. Another says they can go to the southeast. What about going up?

I thought IND's SkyClub was renovated fairly recently (within the last 10ish years)? CVG's needs an overhaul as well...still very much feels like a Crown Room.

Lots of A/C upguages this week

UA IND-SFO 738+739 August 21st—>October 3rd (totals 658 seats each way to the Bay Area including VX/WN), A320+739 June 6th-August 20th
UA IND-DEN 738 August 21st—->October 3rd
UA IND-ORD 2x A319 August 21st—->October 3rd
DL IND-DTW 757 July 9th through August 11th
DL IND-SLC 738 July-early august, then goes A320 for most of the rest of August
AA IND-DFW gets 3 frequencies upped to a 738 for most of May
AA IND-PHX gets one frequency upped to an A320 for most of May

flyguy89 wrote:

Indy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/indairportdotorg/search/?query=%20I%20heard%20they%20are%20going%20to%20renovate%20and%20possibly%20expand%20it

Someone named Phil brooks mentioned last year that DL was planning to renovate and expand it. So far I haven't heard that, but we may here more about DL's plans at the launch for IND-CDG

One person says there is not much room for expansion. Another says they can go to the southeast. What about going up?

I thought IND's SkyClub was renovated fairly recently (within the last 10ish years)? CVG's needs an overhaul as well...still very much feels like a Crown Room.

IND's Skyclub was built in 2010, so its still fairly new. I don't know how long DL waits before renovating or expanding though

The Official Q3 numbers are out
The largest O&D markets in that order
NYC 695 PDEW (-41 PDEW YOY)
DCA 624 PDEW (+68 PDEW YOY)
DEN 502 PDEW (+19 PDEW YOY)
MCO 469 PDEW (+62 PDEW YOY)
LAX 452 PDEW (-38 PDEW YOY)

Other markets of note
BOS 407 PDEW (+22 PDEW YOY)
ATL 368 PDEW (+15 PDEW YOY)
LAS 362 PDEW (+39 PDEW YOY)
TPA 316 PDEW (+24 PDEW YOY)
SFO 297 PDEW (+20 PDEW YOY)
MIA 294 PDEW (+34 PDEW YOY)
SEA 247 PDEW (+86 PDEW YOY)
SAN 191 PDEW (+62 PDEW YOY)
PHL 168 PDEW (-35 PDEW YOY)
ORD 154 PDEW (+27 PDEW YOY)
MCI 128 PDEW (+10 PDEW YOY)
PDX 107 PDEW (+7 PDEW YOY)
AUS 106 PDEW (+32 PDEW YOY)
RDU 105 PDEW (+2 PDEW YOY)
SLC 93 PDEW (+8 PDEW YOY)
SAT 74 PDEW (+11 PDEW YOY)
MSY 72 PDEW (+17 PDEW YOY)
SMF 66 PDEW (+3 PDEW YOY)
DTW 60 PDEW (+16 PDEW YOY)
BDL 58 PDEW (+7 PDEW YOY)
DFW (316), PHX (214), IAH (179), MSP (191), RSW (158), and CLT (141) only showed growth under 10 PDEW, with the exception of IAH and RSW which saw PDEW shrink

West showed great growth with PHX, LAS, SFO, SEA, PDX, and SAN showing growth
IND-SAN is much too large of a market to only be served June 6th-August 6th

Sucks Southwest dropped DCA. I wonder if Delta would try it

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Midwestindy wrote:

DTW 60 PDEW (+16 PDEW YOY)

This has amused me for a while, 60+60 on way is 120 each way, that's not bad for these 2 markets. I mean think about it, who really flies from Indy to Detroit? What if a ULCC (hypothetically) flew this route? Does anyone think there'd be stimulation that would encourage people to fly over driving?

ibthebigd wrote:

Sucks Southwest dropped DCA. I wonder if Delta would try it

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DL doesn't have the slots at DCA to do it, they would likely have to be at least 3x daily, meaning they would probably have to cut flights from other destinations to allow for an IND-DCA flight

The best shot for more IND-Washington service is AA adding mainline/frequencies or G4 adding IND-BWI

flymco753 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

DTW 60 PDEW (+16 PDEW YOY)

This has amused me for a while, 60+60 on way is 120 each way, that's not bad for these 2 markets. I mean think about it, who really flies from Indy to Detroit? What if a ULCC (hypothetically) flew this route? Does anyone think there'd be stimulation that would encourage people to fly over driving?

Maybe... most of the IND-DTW pax are pretty high yielding auto-industry pax. I think that NK might be able to make it work, as long as they can pull some connections in. One thing I wonder is where the growth came from, +16 PDEW YOY is pretty substantial for a city pair of that size.


I forgot to include this in my last post, but here are the airports by Q3 Domestic O&D+Connecting pax separated by dominant airline
Airport-PDEW-LF-Equipment
DL
ATL-1,155 PDEW-80.8%-MD88/MD90/B752/B739ER+soon to be A321
MSP-457 PDEW-79.8%-MD90/A319/A320/B717/CR9+soon to be 757
BOS-377 PDEW-66.7%-E170/E175
LGA-339 PDEW-69.7%-E175/CR9
DTW-279 PDEW-72.3%-CR7/CR9/B717/A319/A320/B739ER/B757
SLC-172 PDEW-89.5%-E175/A319+soon to be A320/B739
RDU-118 PDEW-68.2%-CR2/CR9+soon CR7
JFK-104 PDEW-82.2%-CR9
AS
SEA-308 PDEW-86.2%-B738/B739/B739ER
WN
DEN-964 PDEW-93.9%
MCO-608 PDEW-90.7%
LAS-546 PDEW-92.6%
TPA-317 PDEW-73.7%
BWI-301 PDEW-72.6%
FLL-226 PDEW-67.4%
AA
ORD-622 PDEW
DFW-513 PDEW-81.0%-MD82/B738+soon to be A319
CLT-496 PDEW-79.2%-CR7/E175/A319/B38
DCA-464 PDEW-78.1%-CR2/CR7/E175
PHX-446 PDEW-79.15%-A319/A320
LAX-426 PDEW-81.2%-A319
PHL-262 PDEW-65.8%-CR7/E175
MIA-123 PDEW-71.9%-E145/E175
UA
EWR-336 PDEW-83.1%-E145/E175
IAH-153 PDEW-82.8%-A319/E175/E145
IAD-128 PDEW-85.3%-E145/E175

Midwestindy wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

DTW 60 PDEW (+16 PDEW YOY)

This has amused me for a while, 60+60 on way is 120 each way, that's not bad for these 2 markets. I mean think about it, who really flies from Indy to Detroit? What if a ULCC (hypothetically) flew this route? Does anyone think there'd be stimulation that would encourage people to fly over driving?

Maybe... most of the IND-DTW pax are pretty high yielding auto-industry pax. I think that NK might be able to make it work, as long as they can pull some connections in. One thing I wonder is where the growth came from, +16 PDEW YOY is pretty substantial for a city pair of that size.

Question for you. What do you think the margin of error is on these? I have always wondered since it is a 10% sampling and not 100%. Especially with smaller markets, but I guess size doesn't really matter. Could for example with DTW being +16 could it be something where last year (for example) they were -6 from what it really was at and this year they are +6 and the real growth is 4? Some of the big swings (like when you see numbers above 40) just seem like a big gain. If a nonstop is started I get it but if its basically the same flights why would the growth (or decline) be so much different?

Jshank83 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

flymco753 wrote:

This has amused me for a while, 60+60 on way is 120 each way, that's not bad for these 2 markets. I mean think about it, who really flies from Indy to Detroit? What if a ULCC (hypothetically) flew this route? Does anyone think there'd be stimulation that would encourage people to fly over driving?

Maybe... most of the IND-DTW pax are pretty high yielding auto-industry pax. I think that NK might be able to make it work, as long as they can pull some connections in. One thing I wonder is where the growth came from, +16 PDEW YOY is pretty substantial for a city pair of that size.

Question for you. What do you think the margin of error is on these? I have always wondered since it is a 10% sampling and not 100%. Especially with smaller markets, but I guess size doesn't really matter. Could for example with DTW being +16 could it be something where last year (for example) they were -6 from what it really was at and this year they are +6 and the real growth is 4? Some of the big swings (like when you see numbers above 40) just seem like a big gain. If a nonstop is started I get it but if its basically the same flights why would the growth (or decline) be so much different?

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the Domestic airline consumer report a 100% sample, and the Origin and Destination Survey a 10% sample. I thought that is why the O&D Survey could be released months ahead of this one. So I think the report is reasonably accurate, although I don't know the exact margin for error.

Small swings can be a result of different deals airlines release, small changes in avg fare, or a lot of different variables, so much in the market could shift PDEW +5 or +10 its hard to pin down.

In the case of big swings, it is usually facilitated by 1. Price Drops/Gains, 2. Natural growth/decline in the market/economy of an area, 3. New airline/nonstop flights or reduction in flights. For example, IND-DCA grew 68 PDEW largely due to WN dropping fares for the final few months of service, IND-SEA/SAN/SFO can be attributed to new nonstop service and tech industry, while decline on IND-PHL can be attributed to F9 leaving the route and avg fares going up.

Midwestindy wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the Domestic airline consumer report a 100% sample, and the Origin and Destination Survey a 10% sample. I thought that is why the O&D Survey could be released months ahead of this one. So I think the report is reasonably accurate, although I don't know the exact margin for error.

Ohh I thought it was 10%, if it is 100% then that makes way more sense. Thanks for your thoughts.

Midwestindy wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Maybe... most of the IND-DTW pax are pretty high yielding auto-industry pax. I think that NK might be able to make it work, as long as they can pull some connections in. One thing I wonder is where the growth came from, +16 PDEW YOY is pretty substantial for a city pair of that size.

Question for you. What do you think the margin of error is on these? I have always wondered since it is a 10% sampling and not 100%. Especially with smaller markets, but I guess size doesn't really matter. Could for example with DTW being +16 could it be something where last year (for example) they were -6 from what it really was at and this year they are +6 and the real growth is 4? Some of the big swings (like when you see numbers above 40) just seem like a big gain. If a nonstop is started I get it but if its basically the same flights why would the growth (or decline) be so much different?

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the Domestic airline consumer report a 100% sample, and the Origin and Destination Survey a 10% sample. I thought that is why the O&D Survey could be released months ahead of this one. So I think the report is reasonably accurate, although I don't know the exact margin for error.

Sorry to be dense but I didn't relaize they were two distinct things -- could you point me to them?

Thanks!

In June UA will have 737-900 EWR-IND

knope2001 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

Question for you. What do you think the margin of error is on these? I have always wondered since it is a 10% sampling and not 100%. Especially with smaller markets, but I guess size doesn't really matter. Could for example with DTW being +16 could it be something where last year (for example) they were -6 from what it really was at and this year they are +6 and the real growth is 4? Some of the big swings (like when you see numbers above 40) just seem like a big gain. If a nonstop is started I get it but if its basically the same flights why would the growth (or decline) be so much different?

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the Domestic airline consumer report a 100% sample, and the Origin and Destination Survey a 10% sample. I thought that is why the O&D Survey could be released months ahead of this one. So I think the report is reasonably accurate, although I don't know the exact margin for error.

Sorry to be dense but I didn't relaize they were two distinct things -- could you point me to them?

Thanks!

Origin and Destination Survey (10% sample): https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.as ... n%20Survey

For the O&D survey I suggest using the DB1BMarket spreadsheet rather than the DB1BCoupon or the DB1BTicket, it will give you a lot more useful info like how many people are connecting at which airports. Again though keep in mind it is a 10% sample so their is margin for error.


Domestic Consumer Airfare report (I think this is a 100% sample, but I can't confirm that), passenger numbers should be divided by 2.
This table within the Airfare report is for City markets (example: NYC and LAX)
https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... /yj5y-b2ir

This table within the Airfare report is for individual airports within the markets (example: EWR, LGA, JFK and SNA, LGB, LAX)
https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... /tfrh-tu9e


If you have any questions let me know

COSPN wrote:

In June UA will have 737-900 EWR-IND

Wow I must have missed that one, did they add it last weekend?

Good upguage by UA, they were running 91.8%LF on that flight last June. That leaves IAD as the only UA non-mainline destination.

I'd still like to see some more mainline from DL and AA, but at this point I can't complain

Interesting thing happened tonight, I was at the Indy Eleven game tonight in the suite with the representatives from Turkish Airlines, and they mentioned that they (Star Alliance) are looking into international flights in a few years. The problem they mentioned was that ORD was in close proximity.

Midwestindy wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the Domestic airline consumer report a 100% sample, and the Origin and Destination Survey a 10% sample. I thought that is why the O&D Survey could be released months ahead of this one. So I think the report is reasonably accurate, although I don't know the exact margin for error.

Sorry to be dense but I didn't relaize they were two distinct things -- could you point me to them?

Thanks!

Origin and Destination Survey (10% sample): https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.as ... n%20Survey

For the O&D survey I suggest using the DB1BMarket spreadsheet rather than the DB1BCoupon or the DB1BTicket, it will give you a lot more useful info like how many people are connecting at which airports. Again though keep in mind it is a 10% sample so their is margin for error.


Domestic Consumer Airfare report (I think this is a 100% sample, but I can't confirm that), passenger numbers should be divided by 2.
This table within the Airfare report is for City markets (example: NYC and LAX)
https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... /yj5y-b2ir

This table within the Airfare report is for individual airports within the markets (example: EWR, LGA, JFK and SNA, LGB, LAX)
https://data.transportation.gov/Aviatio ... /tfrh-tu9e


If you have any questions let me know

Thanks! I thought these came from the same underlying source but might be wrong. I hope to have some time to monkey with these and the T100 loads (in markets which are discreet O+D) to see how things look.

Midwestindy wrote:

Interesting thing happened tonight, I was at the Indy Eleven game tonight in the suite with the representatives from Turkish Airlines, and they mentioned that they (Star Alliance) are looking into international flights in a few years. The problem they mentioned was that ORD was in close proximity.

Well, that's interesting. I wonder what they (Star Alliance assuming United) could do out of here internationally?

Not to mention when Delta starts CDG, I can guarantee you that the LCCs (WOW, Condor, Icelandair, or Norwegian) will hit IND next.

Turkish Airways? Wow! I would never had seen that coming or let alone even a chance . LoL

fedex1 wrote:

Turkish Airways? Wow! I would never had seen that coming or let alone even a chance . LoL

I don't think it was necessarily Turkish Airways, but rather Star Alliance (i.e. Lufthansa)

https://twitter.com/GerryDick/status/980459833278320640

So I pm’ed you sir!

So I pm’ed you sir!

So I pm’ed you sir!

fedex1 wrote:

Turkish Airways? Wow! I would never had seen that coming or let alone even a chance . LoL

It's worth mentioning that Turkish Airlines is one of the Title Sponsors for the Indy Eleven, and Turkish Airlines doesn't sponsor any other North or South American soccer teams.

http://www.nasl.com/news/2017/03/27/ind ... or-sponsor