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RDUDDJI
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:28 pm

cvgComair wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
About 10 percent of Delta’s passengers at RDU are catching a connecting flight through the airport Not bad, more than I thought would be the case

I am very surprised it is that high. CVG runs about 16%, but it varies by the month.


According to the airports connecting numbers, it's closer to 1.2%. And that's assuming that every connection is DL. I have a feeling the airport is not capturing all connections, but I would also be (a little) surprised to see it be 10%.

FWIW: RDU reported 2,256 connecting pax in June. DL boarded 189,413 pax. 2256/ 189413= .0119. I'm not sure what criteria RDU is using for counting connections but it's clearly not the same as DL.
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:14 pm

I think that number came from Delta???
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TimeForFlight
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:38 pm

The Triangle Business Journal published an article yesterday confirming RDU’s interest in converting T1 to a budget terminal. Specifically, RDUAA mentioned being in talks with Allegiant and Frontier about the move, though it would require significant investment and take some time. Such a move would make use of the four vacant gates.

Great to see growth outpacing forecast, but it looks like there are growing pains in the near future.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2018/07/30/repositioning-at-rdu-could-create-a-budget.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:41 pm

TimeForFlight wrote:
The Triangle Business Journal published an article yesterday confirming RDU’s interest in converting T1 to a budget terminal. Specifically, RDUAA mentioned being in talks with Allegiant and Frontier about the move, though it would require significant investment and take some time. Such a move would make use of the four vacant gates.

Great to see growth outpacing forecast, but it looks like there are growing pains in the near future.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2018/07/30/repositioning-at-rdu-could-create-a-budget.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo


I have been saying this on this forum for months. It’s not necessarily talks. It’s more with the airport saying it will happen. Alaska will be part of the move as well. The airport is just looking for a way to retrofit the terminal because the technology is proprietary to Southwest. There are also other factors including no underground fuel tanks that they will have to plan for.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:08 pm

In today’s news... looks like Terminal 1 new gates anticipated opening Apr 1, 2020 with Allegiant and Frontier crossing over.. that opens up 2 gates in Terminal 2... for a total of 4 gates open in Terminal 2 when that occurs.. but will that be enough? I understand it gets a little gate tight more often now and what if another airline want to make an entry.

If Spirit decides to come, can they donok with 1 gate in T1? Will F9 take 2 gates? If, by some chance, we get another international carrier... will 23-24 be open enough for them? If F9 adds more Caribbean, will it have to be ferried from T2 to T1? Does T1 need a FIS?

Will WestJet or Aeromexico ever make it to their JV partner focus city? Will the questions never cease?

And RDu is having a janitorial problem.. can’t keep enough staffing.. how long will it last?
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:16 pm

So, does F9 plan or announced service to Costa Rica cause it’s now showing up on the map. Not any service there but the country showing up. Anyone think some new Cemtral American routes might be coming? Think any could come from RDU?
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FA9295
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:08 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So, does F9 plan or announced service to Costa Rica cause it’s now showing up on the map. Not any service there but the country showing up. Anyone think some new Cemtral American routes might be coming? Think any could come from RDU?

Frontier just launched a huge partnership/codeshare network with Volaris: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... gust-2018/

So that might have something to do with it...
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:15 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
If Spirit decides to come, can they donok with 1 gate in T1? Will F9 take 2 gates? If, by some chance, we get another international carrier... will 23-24 be open enough for them? If F9 adds more Caribbean, will it have to be ferried from T2 to T1? Does T1 need a FIS?

Will WestJet or Aeromexico ever make it to their JV partner focus city? Will the questions never cease


Chances of Spirit coming to Raleigh dropped with GSO being added.

The chances of another international carrier isn’t as likely now. The ME3 have slowed growth considerably. Norwegian has pulled back in US growth, and not enough demand for a LGW route. WOW is in some financial trouble now. Volaris would be a interesting add.

Not enough Canada traffic to warrant a 737 on WestJet. AM would have to dedicate a slot to RDU. I think TPA is more likely before RDU.

Lastly, you don’t need 23 or 24 if a foreign destination has preclearance. ie NAS, YYZ, etc.
 
NCavi8tor
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:14 am

ERJ170 wrote:
So, does F9 plan or announced service to Costa Rica cause it’s now showing up on the map. Not any service there but the country showing up. Anyone think some new Cemtral American routes might be coming? Think any could come from RDU?



Frontier flies a seasonal route between Denver, CO and San Jose, Costa Rica during peak season.
 
NCavi8tor
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:24 am

Once the Terminal 1 "Expansion" is completed, I would not be surprised to see Delta take over the remaining gates in Concourse D. They already control the 20 check-in counters on that side of the terminal and majority of the gates. Adding those gates would open up more domestic options for the largest airline serving the airport.

Expansion wise I see Delta Adding
-Dallas/Fort Worth 3x daily
-Miami 1x daily (ending Saturday Only)
-Cancun Frequency to compete against Frontier, Southwest, & American's Seasonal Service
-Las Vegas 1x returning
-San Jose CA 1x
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:28 am

Sorry, but what I think should happen is... they move the other airlines at the end of D to other gates and RDU start on the first finger to expand 2 in order to start working on RDU Vision 2040... add 5-6 gates.. and then start on the middle finger.. and finally the international gate finger.. until they have added another 15-20 gates..
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:19 am

So... lots going on around the country... a lot on a.net wishing the airport would get this and this service. I would like RDU European and Caribbean service to mature to become sustainable.. so IMO, no new service announcement international is cool. Thoughts?

And lastly, saw in an article there is lots of interest in corporate hangars... hope to see some SAS size hangars in place.. and maybe a US5 airline hangar?
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rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:28 pm

Alaska won’t because of its maintenance at GSO, so that leaves the big four. Rumor has it WN is trying to acquire the F9 hangar at DEN. UA has no incentive to at RDU, esp with IAD close by. AA has plenty of space at CLT. DL is good to go at ATL and NYC, even after selling their TPA to Pemco.
 
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casinterest
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:32 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
o... lots going on around the country... a lot on a.net wishing the airport would get this and this service. I would like RDU European and Caribbean service to mature to become sustainable.. so IMO, no new service announcement international is cool. Thoughts?

And lastly, saw in an article there is lots of interest in corporate hangars... hope to see some SAS size hangars in place.. and maybe a US5 airline hangar?


WIth companies like Epic Games, SAS, Lenovo, Red Hat, Citrix and others in RDU, there is a market for some of these corporate hangers. If the triangle gets Apple or Amazon to move in, then there is a good chance of more hangers going in. RDU is growing fine, and I think with the LHR/CDG flight raleigh is well established into Europe. The Caribbean flights are great as more US citizens gain their passports and travel on vacations to the beaches.

ERJ170 wrote:
Sorry, but what I think should happen is... they move the other airlines at the end of D to other gates and RDU start on the first finger to expand 2 in order to start working on RDU Vision 2040... add 5-6 gates.. and then start on the middle
..


I think Terminal 1 needs to grow back first. I never saw the validity of tearing down all the gates ,that were there, when everyone moved to 2. However they were not modern or permanent structures so mothballing them was probably out. Terminal 1 has the space and should grow first. They need to push the runways our prior to creating the fingers at Terminal 2.

Perhaps they will put in some international gates, because at this point it looks like Frontier is going to offer a lot of international flights from RDU. I can't imagine Southwest will wait long to offer more to the Caribbean.
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ADrum23
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:34 am

I hate to sound like a broken record (cause I know I've asked this before), but do we have any load factor % for both AA RDU-LHR and DL RDU-CDG? I'm curious to know how the 777 and 767 on those routes respectively are holding up.
 
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casinterest
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:42 pm

ADrum23 wrote:
I hate to sound like a broken record (cause I know I've asked this before), but do we have any load factor % for both AA RDU-LHR and DL RDU-CDG? I'm curious to know how the 777 and 767 on those routes respectively are holding up.


They must be holding well, as they both exist and are not going away. I will probably be able to tell you for one flight what it is in about 6 weeks. ( a return leg) the outbound through boston was cheaper if that gives you any ideas.
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:48 pm

I can only hope they are well.. even though some airports are getting new service, I’m actually okay with RDU TATL service.. if anything, would like to see more Canadian, Bahamas, Bermuda, and Caribbean... and weekly service sounds good too. But anyway... it’s all good
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casinterest
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:25 am

[threeid][/threeid]
ERJ170 wrote:
I can only hope they are well.. even though some airports are getting new service, I’m actually okay with RDU TATL service.. if anything, would like to see more Canadian, Bahamas, Bermuda, and Caribbean... and weekly service sounds good too. But anyway... it’s all good


When you look at WIKI, LHR was up 10% YOY 2016-2017. RDU CDG was up 41%. Part of that was the upgage, but with RDU on track for overall 10% growth this year at the airport, I have to imagine LHR and CDG are only getting better. I wonder if at some point they will add a Later flight ( 10-11 P.M to head out East.


I think that RDU is well poised for Caribbean growth, but they need some better travel advertising from RDU.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Sep 30, 2018 6:49 am

Nerd bird route

I am surprised delta hasn't tried SJC there has to be demand to fill a 319. The o&d numbers I bet alot fly to SFO for non-stop but would do SJC if it had a non-stop. Seems like there is a lot of travel to silicon valley from research triangle.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:45 pm

Not much new news out of RDU.. Frontier new routes start in a few weeks.. Delta ORD flight still over 6 months away.. repaving Brantley Ave and new carpeting in Terminal 2.. some prep work on the runway.. not sure if there has been any actions on the Terminal 1 reconnection..

So I thought I would look at RDU top 26 markets to see where we are as far as coverage.. maybe see what DL next destination could be.. This is according to Faremeasure stats. On routes DL doesn't operate, I placed the competition flights. So, what do you think? Will DL start SFO/OAK/SJC? DEN? LAS? PHX? STL again? Delta stated they wanted to serve the top 25 markets from RDU. Thoughts?

1. LGA 1310 (8x)
2. BOS 1152 (6x)
3. ATL 1021 (13x)
4. ORD 763 (3x)
5. MCO 729 (3x)
6. LAX 659 (2x)
7. JFK 621 (5x)
8. BWI 578 (3x)
9. PHL 576 (3x)
10. SFO 519 (0; UA operates 2x, AS 1x)
11. DFW 510 (4x)
12. FLL 506 (1x)
13. BNA 506 (2x)
14. DEN 498 (0; UA operates 2x, F9 1x, WN 1x)
15. MDW 487 (see ORD)
16. TPA 453 (2-3x)
17. LAS 410 (0; WN operates 1x)
18. MIA 407 (seasonal Sat)
19. MSP 388 (4x)
20. EWR 387 (4x)
21. PHX 326 (0; WN operates 1x)
22. DCA 321 (4x)
23. DTW 311 (4x)
24. STL 286 (0; WN operates 3x)
25. SEA 263 (1x)
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rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:23 pm

DL won’t do DEN, PHX, or any Bay Area airports. PHX is low yield to start with, which is why AA doesn’t do it. DEN is well covered with WN, F9 and UA. SFO has one too many flights as is possibly. OAK and SJC don’t have any O&D destinations for DL.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:28 pm

I wish F9 or somebody would keep an RDU-SYR flight year-round. The cities are just close enough together to make two short connecting flights a pain in the arse.
 
jplatts
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:42 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Not much new news out of RDU.. Frontier new routes start in a few weeks.. Delta ORD flight still over 6 months away.. repaving Brantley Ave and new carpeting in Terminal 2.. some prep work on the runway.. not sure if there has been any actions on the Terminal 1 reconnection..

So I thought I would look at RDU top 26 markets to see where we are as far as coverage.. maybe see what DL next destination could be.. This is according to Faremeasure stats. On routes DL doesn't operate, I placed the competition flights. So, what do you think? Will DL start SFO/OAK/SJC? DEN? LAS? PHX? STL again? Delta stated they wanted to serve the top 25 markets from RDU. Thoughts?
11. DFW 510 (4x)


In addition to AA serving DFW nonstop from RDU, WN does have 1 daily nonstop to DAL from RDU, and there was an average of 247 passengers traveling between DAL and RDU per day in Q2 2018. DFW/DAL should be higher up on the list since there are many passengers in the DFW Metroplex who would consider flying out of DAL instead of DFW (and vice versa).
 
LovePrunesAnet
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:37 pm

Was told by a trusted source at RDU they are aleady at their projected 2027 passenger forecast numbers. They are scrambling to move forward with vision 2040 plan sooner, much sooner, than 2040. Nothing can be built at T2 in terms of new gates until the runway is replaced and moved West (currently in Environmental Assessment) so all new gates for near future will be in T1 since that's faater than waiting for the runway relocation. Airlines with outsourced ground service at T2 will be moved to T1 whether they like it or not, and ground service will have to adjust. More parking garage and consolidated rental car CONRAC under way for immediate construction.The source told me that they have been informed by at least one airline of some significant and what the source called surprising growth plans at RDU but he was not at liberty to share more details with me. I didnt get the impression it was necessarily Delta though.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:41 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Not much new news out of RDU.. Frontier new routes start in a few weeks.. Delta ORD flight still over 6 months away.. repaving Brantley Ave and new carpeting in Terminal 2.. some prep work on the runway.. not sure if there has been any actions on the Terminal 1 reconnection..

So I thought I would look at RDU top 26 markets to see where we are as far as coverage.. maybe see what DL next destination could be.. This is according to Faremeasure stats. On routes DL doesn't operate, I placed the competition flights. So, what do you think? Will DL start SFO/OAK/SJC? DEN? LAS? PHX? STL again? Delta stated they wanted to serve the top 25 markets from RDU. Thoughts?

1. LGA 1310 (8x)
2. BOS 1152 (6x)
3. ATL 1021 (13x)
4. ORD 763 (3x)
5. MCO 729 (3x)
6. LAX 659 (2x)
7. JFK 621 (5x)
8. BWI 578 (3x)
9. PHL 576 (3x)
10. SFO 519 (0; UA operates 2x, AS 1x)
11. DFW 510 (4x)
12. FLL 506 (1x)
13. BNA 506 (2x)
14. DEN 498 (0; UA operates 2x, F9 1x, WN 1x)
15. MDW 487 (see ORD)
16. TPA 453 (2-3x)
17. LAS 410 (0; WN operates 1x)
18. MIA 407 (seasonal Sat)
19. MSP 388 (4x)
20. EWR 387 (4x)
21. PHX 326 (0; WN operates 1x)
22. DCA 321 (4x)
23. DTW 311 (4x)
24. STL 286 (0; WN operates 3x)
25. SEA 263 (1x)


No MSY?
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:42 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
DL won’t do DEN, PHX, or any Bay Area airports. PHX is low yield to start with, which is why AA doesn’t do it. DEN is well covered with WN, F9 and UA. SFO has one too many flights as is possibly. OAK and SJC don’t have any O&D destinations for DL.


Is there much left for DL to add, then?

New Orleans is 178
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Capn
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:52 pm

ERJ170
You listed RDU- DFW as 4X.
Is there something you are not telling us?
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
jplatts
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:58 pm

Capn wrote:
ERJ170
You listed RDU- DFW as 4X.
Is there something you are not telling us?


While DL doesn't currently serve DFW nonstop from RDU, AA currently has 5 daily nonstops to DFW from RDU and WN currently has 1 daily nonstop to DAL from RDU.

DL used to serve DFW nonstop from RDU back when DL had a hub from DFW, and DL could bring back DFW-RDU nonstop service.
 
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:25 pm

Capn wrote:
ERJ170
You listed RDU- DFW as 4X.
Is there something you are not telling us?


Oops, confused with DTW...
Aiming High and going far..
 
Capn
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Thanks for clarification. Hope that gets added in future.
Thank you for your updates, I really enjoy them.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
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FA9295
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:45 pm

Air Canada is starting 1x daily YUL-RDU: viewforum.php?f=3
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:49 pm

FA9295 wrote:
Air Canada is starting 1x daily YUL-RDU: viewforum.php?f=3

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1406891

Not sure your link worked there.
 
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FA9295
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:26 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Air Canada is starting 1x daily YUL-RDU: viewforum.php?f=3

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1406891

Not sure your link worked there.

Ah, thanks. I was using my phone when posting that... :D
No, "FA" in my username does not stand for "flight attendant"...
 
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casinterest
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:52 pm

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Was told by a trusted source at RDU they are aleady at their projected 2027 passenger forecast numbers. They are scrambling to move forward with vision 2040 plan sooner, much sooner, than 2040. Nothing can be built at T2 in terms of new gates until the runway is replaced and moved West (currently in Environmental Assessment) so all new gates for near future will be in T1 since that's faater than waiting for the runway relocation. Airlines with outsourced ground service at T2 will be moved to T1 whether they like it or not, and ground service will have to adjust. More parking garage and consolidated rental car CONRAC under way for immediate construction.The source told me that they have been informed by at least one airline of some significant and what the source called surprising growth plans at RDU but he was not at liberty to share more details with me. I didnt get the impression it was necessarily Delta though.

I keep thinking that allegiant or Frontier is planning more growth. Frontier keeps adding destinations, but unless they plan to hub out of RDU, i am not positive it will be them.

Allegiant has been steadily growing though, and I think they are looking to capitalize on the growing market.
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ERJ170
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:52 pm

So do we think DL has built up RDu to the level they wanted, taking a hiatus, waiting for more gate space, counting on upgrades now, or still have growth plans for RdU? Do you thin Westjet will finally look at RDU with AC growing and upguaging?
Aiming High and going far..
 
Rafale9312
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:33 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
So do we think DL has built up RDu to the level they wanted, taking a hiatus, waiting for more gate space, counting on upgrades now, or still have growth plans for RdU? Do you thin Westjet will finally look at RDU with AC growing and upguaging?


For DL, I think they are satisfied with where they are in terms of market share at RDU. As such, I do see them slowing growth in terms of destinations added, but I think they will continue to upgrade/upgauge the flights they have now. I personally wager that the AUS flight will be the next flight to be up-gauged to mainline aircraft once more A220's are delivered. As far as when more gate space is opened up, I think DL will continue expansion, but mainly on O&D markets like they have done so far, maybe another European destination if we're lucky, but nothing crazy. As much as I would love for WestJet to come to RDU, I don't think that will be happening anytime soon as the capacity that we have to Canada now is more than enough to fulfill the needs of passengers on both ends. I think RDU's main focus should continue to be building the new runway, expanding both terminals for future demand, fill the major holes in the domestic network (i.e. PDX, SJC, and daily SAN service), and securing a flight to China.
 
RDUflyer
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:44 pm

Hey everyone — been reading these RDU threads for a long time, but this is my first post.

Don't know if you saw Enilria's OAG report, but looks like F9 is ending MCI and SAT:

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407173
 
rajincajun01
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:01 pm

RDUflyer wrote:
Hey everyone — been reading these RDU threads for a long time, but this is my first post.

Don't know if you saw Enilria's OAG report, but looks like F9 is ending MCI and SAT:

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407173


Welcome to the forum!

I did see it, and neither are a surprise. SAT is likely canabalizing the AUS route. AUS is only an hour drive, and has higher yielding passengers.

The A319, or even bigger, is too much aircraft for MCI without any feeding traffic on either end.

The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.
 
RDUflyer
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Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:31 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
RDUflyer wrote:
Hey everyone — been reading these RDU threads for a long time, but this is my first post.

Don't know if you saw Enilria's OAG report, but looks like F9 is ending MCI and SAT:

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407173


Welcome to the forum!

I did see it, and neither are a surprise. SAT is likely canabalizing the AUS route. AUS is only an hour drive, and has higher yielding passengers.

The A319, or even bigger, is too much aircraft for MCI without any feeding traffic on either end.

The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.


Thanks ... I really appreciate everyone's insight here! Yeah, I'm not very surprised, either. I was more hopeful for SAT. I didn't think MCI would work with WN on it, too. F9 seems to have a quick hook on their routes — interested to see how some of these other random flights fare (MHT, SYR, etc) and if they continue to add.

SAN is definitely one to keep an eye on.
 
rajincajun01
Posts: 502
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:16 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:28 pm

Frontier’s model (at least at RDU) would be more successful with the A220 on many routes.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 3302
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:06 pm

RDUflyer wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
RDUflyer wrote:
Hey everyone — been reading these RDU threads for a long time, but this is my first post.

Don't know if you saw Enilria's OAG report, but looks like F9 is ending MCI and SAT:

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1407173


Welcome to the forum!

I did see it, and neither are a surprise. SAT is likely canabalizing the AUS route. AUS is only an hour drive, and has higher yielding passengers.

The A319, or even bigger, is too much aircraft for MCI without any feeding traffic on either end.

The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.


Thanks ... I really appreciate everyone's insight here! Yeah, I'm not very surprised, either. I was more hopeful for SAT. I didn't think MCI would work with WN on it, too. F9 seems to have a quick hook on their routes — interested to see how some of these other random flights fare (MHT, SYR, etc) and if they continue to add.

SAN is definitely one to keep an eye on.


Here are some LFs for F9's July flights
RDU-AUS-84.4%; AUS-RDU-68.1%
RDU-BUF-94.9%; BUF-RDU-89.3%
RDU-CLE-86.9%; CLE-RDU-88.9%
RDU-CVG-77.6%; CVG-RDU-74.4%
RDU-DEN-94.9%; DEN-RDU-92.7%
RDU-DTW-85.3%; DTW-RDU-87.5%
RDU-IAH-95.1%; IAH-RDU-95.5%
RDU-LAS-89.9%; LAS-RDU-90.9%
RDU-MCI-80.6%; MCI-RDU-83.4%
RDU-MCO-94.9%; MCO-RDU-90.3%
RDU-MDT-30.4%; MDT-RDU-47.3%
RDU-MKE-78.4%; MKE-RDU-87.5%
RDU-MSP-66.6%; MSP-RDU-81.4%
RDU-MSY-77.4%; MSY-RDU-83.1%
RDU-PVD-76.2%; PVD-RDU-79.3%

RDU-PWM-88.4%; PWM-RDU-79.6%
RDU-SAT-84.9%; SAT-RDU-86.4%
RDU-SJU-98.2%; SJU-RDU-96.3%
RDU-SYR-89.7%; SYR-RDU-86.9%
RDU-TTN-94.2%; TTN-RDU-94.4%
DL DM, AA Gold in 2018, Visited 2018:AMS, ATL, AUS, BOS, BWI, CDG, CLT, CMN, DCA, DFW, DTW, DXB, EWR, FLL, FRA, HAV, HPN, JFK, JNB, IAD, IAH, IND, LAX, LGA, LHR, LOS, MAD, MCO, MIA, MSP, ORD, PBI, PHL, PVD, SAN, SEA, SJD, SLC, SFO, STL, TPA, TXL, YYZ, ZRH
 
RDUflyer
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:36 pm

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
RDUflyer wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:

Welcome to the forum!

I did see it, and neither are a surprise. SAT is likely canabalizing the AUS route. AUS is only an hour drive, and has higher yielding passengers.

The A319, or even bigger, is too much aircraft for MCI without any feeding traffic on either end.

The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.


Thanks ... I really appreciate everyone's insight here! Yeah, I'm not very surprised, either. I was more hopeful for SAT. I didn't think MCI would work with WN on it, too. F9 seems to have a quick hook on their routes — interested to see how some of these other random flights fare (MHT, SYR, etc) and if they continue to add.

SAN is definitely one to keep an eye on.


Here are some LFs for F9's July flights
RDU-AUS-84.4%; AUS-RDU-68.1%
RDU-BUF-94.9%; BUF-RDU-89.3%
RDU-CLE-86.9%; CLE-RDU-88.9%
RDU-CVG-77.6%; CVG-RDU-74.4%
RDU-DEN-94.9%; DEN-RDU-92.7%
RDU-DTW-85.3%; DTW-RDU-87.5%
RDU-IAH-95.1%; IAH-RDU-95.5%
RDU-LAS-89.9%; LAS-RDU-90.9%
RDU-MCI-80.6%; MCI-RDU-83.4%
RDU-MCO-94.9%; MCO-RDU-90.3%
RDU-MDT-30.4%; MDT-RDU-47.3%
RDU-MKE-78.4%; MKE-RDU-87.5%
RDU-MSP-66.6%; MSP-RDU-81.4%
RDU-MSY-77.4%; MSY-RDU-83.1%
RDU-PVD-76.2%; PVD-RDU-79.3%

RDU-PWM-88.4%; PWM-RDU-79.6%
RDU-SAT-84.9%; SAT-RDU-86.4%
RDU-SJU-98.2%; SJU-RDU-96.3%
RDU-SYR-89.7%; SYR-RDU-86.9%
RDU-TTN-94.2%; TTN-RDU-94.4%


Thanks for sharing! I meant MDT, not MHT, in my last post.
 
RDUDDJI
Posts: 1937
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 4:42 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:09 am

LovePrunesAnet wrote:
Was told by a trusted source at RDU they are aleady at their projected 2027 passenger forecast numbers. They are scrambling to move forward with vision 2040 plan sooner, much sooner, than 2040. Nothing can be built at T2 in terms of new gates until the runway is replaced and moved West (currently in Environmental Assessment) so all new gates for near future will be in T1 since that's faater than waiting for the runway relocation. Airlines with outsourced ground service at T2 will be moved to T1 whether they like it or not, and ground service will have to adjust. More parking garage and consolidated rental car CONRAC under way for immediate construction.The source told me that they have been informed by at least one airline of some significant and what the source called surprising growth plans at RDU but he was not at liberty to share more details with me. I didnt get the impression it was necessarily Delta though.


While all the growth is great, the RDUAA’s future planning is a joke. Pax growth has been over 10% for years, and guess how much parking they’ve added in the last 15 years. The answer is negative. So what happens? The decks now get full regularly, and people have to park in the cheaper remote lots. That’s both annoying for business travelers (read: repeat business), and a loss of revenue for parking. Instead of planning for the future by adding capacity, they wasted a bunch of time and money on this moronic parking “reservation” system... I’d love to know what consultant took their money for that idea. Additionally traffic is becoming abysmal around T2 in the afternoons. The main loop through the airport is long overdue for some improvements. They are finally redoing exit 285 off of I-40 (it’s been a mess since it’s last upgrade 15 years ago), but I’m not sure if that was the airports idea, or the DOT. A consolidated rental car fac would also help alleviate all the rental car buses and some of the blind intersections that dump on to the terminal loop.

Wake up RDUAA. RDU is not a connecting hub (at least not since 2002). Pax need places to park and easier access.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 4750
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 7:08 am

rajincajun01 wrote:
The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.

After reading thru most of the latest posts in this thread, and seeing very little mentioned about SAN service, I was glad to see your post cajun'.

Do most folks in RDU feel that SAN is now "off the list" of needed service because of the minimal service offered by F9? (Twice weekly, maybe year-round, maybe seasonal -- who knows?)

I can't help but feel that AS was on the verge of announcing RDU-SAN when F9 jumped on the route in June (starting service in mid-August.) There's no question that the market should support some level of service -- recent DOT stats show PDEWs of ~125-150. I personally don't think twice a week is anywhere near adequate.

Do we just have to wait and see what F9 does? Even if a miracle should happen and F9 adds freq, would that be considered enough? I still feel that the corporate travelers flying between the 2 cities deserve at least very nearly daily service from a 'real' airline. As I've said before, I don't think DL would be likely at all to add a non-hub destination out of SAN so my hopes would have to lie with AS or WN. Either one could, with healthy ops in SAN, but will they as long as F9 remains?

I'm curious what you folks think.

bb
 
rajincajun01
Posts: 502
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:16 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:31 pm

SANFan wrote:
rajincajun01 wrote:
The one to keep an eye on is SAN to see if it grows or shrinks.

After reading thru most of the latest posts in this thread, and seeing very little mentioned about SAN service, I was glad to see your post cajun'.

Do most folks in RDU feel that SAN is now "off the list" of needed service because of the minimal service offered by F9? (Twice weekly, maybe year-round, maybe seasonal -- who knows?)

I can't help but feel that AS was on the verge of announcing RDU-SAN when F9 jumped on the route in June (starting service in mid-August.) There's no question that the market should support some level of service -- recent DOT stats show PDEWs of ~125-150. I personally don't think twice a week is anywhere near adequate.

Do we just have to wait and see what F9 does? Even if a miracle should happen and F9 adds freq, would that be considered enough? I still feel that the corporate travelers flying between the 2 cities deserve at least very nearly daily service from a 'real' airline. As I've said before, I don't think DL would be likely at all to add a non-hub destination out of SAN so my hopes would have to lie with AS or WN. Either one could, with healthy ops in SAN, but will they as long as F9 remains?

I'm curious what you folks think.

bb


Thanks for the shoutout. Unfortunately, I think we were/are no where near announcing SAN from RDU. The AS focus has been on trying to make SFO successful, which is why it’s now in the afternoon. AS is undergoing a vendor change at the airport.

My personal opinion is you’ll see PDX before SAN (esp while F9 is on it) on AS. Even that’s a long shot at the moment with rising fuel costs and internal focuses.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2919
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:22 pm

Im assuming F9 realizes that 78% PVD-RDU at a 321 is a 95% full A320....
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
rajincajun01
Posts: 502
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2010 2:16 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:40 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Im assuming F9 realizes that 78% PVD-RDU at a 321 is a 95% full A320....


Profits aren’t necessarily how full a plane is. That’s why airlines focus on CASM. The CASM of an A321neo is significantly less than a classic A320.
 
Noise
Posts: 2334
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 1999 7:38 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:54 pm

DL CRJ9s would be perfect for RDU-SAT/MCI.
 
User avatar
ERJ170
Posts: 5748
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:15 am

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:41 pm

I would love to see a small Cape Air like airline start and do EWN, AVL, GSP, CHS, SAV, maybe HHH, MEO/MQI... maybe ORF.. cause sometimes you don’t wanna drive and you can’t really connect to these cities..
Aiming High and going far..
 
User avatar
william
Posts: 2848
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 1999 1:31 pm

Re: What's going on at RDU - 2018

Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:56 pm

Is Terminal 1 the old AA hub terminal?

From Google maps looks like half of the gates are empty with jetways removed.
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