What's going on at RDU - 2018

Midwestindy · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:01 pm

cvgComair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Noise wrote:
Wouldn't surprise me if this flight is struggling a little. F9 entering the market must hurt DL.

It was 5x weekly almost all of last year, so the RDU-AUS flight is basically the same schedule it was last year

My bad. It was launched as daily, but I was not aware it weant back down to 5x/week last year. Hopefully DL tries putting the 717/CSeries on the route for 2019.

No worries, I agree that is definately a good candidate for the B717

Noise · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:04 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
RDU is seeing some nice upgauges from S17--->S18

RDU-SLC-B738/A320--->A321
RDU-MCO-3x CR9--->3x B717
RDU-BOS-all CR9--->2x-4x B717
RDU-CUN-MD88/A319--->B738

Those are the ones I noticed, I didn't check CR2-->CR7, CR7-->CR9, e.t.c

Looks like they'll be freeing up a lot of CR9s. Hopefully that means they'll be able to position them onto other routes that are currently with a CR2. Or open up new routes like RDU-PBI and RSW.

rajincajun01 · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:16 pm

Upgauging is going to be the way to go for expansion at RDU for a while during peak times. T2 is maxed out in the mornings for gate space with three gates under construction. RDUAA is having to juggle gates & flights in the morning hours, even on days of normal operations. I found out that the baggage system at T1 is proprietary to WN in some way, so extensive modifications would have to be made for any airline to move over there.

ncflyer · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:37 pm

Did RDU miscalculate with the terminal renovations? For a very new expansion in a market well known to be rapidly growing. Out of space already???

Noise · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:58 pm

ncflyer wrote:
Did RDU miscalculate with the terminal renovations? For a very new expansion in a market well known to be rapidly growing. Out of space already???

The current terminal was planned and built before DL established their focus city operations at RDU.

rajincajun01 · Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:58 pm

rajincajun01 wrote:
Upgauging is going to be the way to go for expansion at RDU for a while during peak times. T2 is maxed out in the mornings for gate space with three gates under construction. RDUAA is having to juggle gates & flights in the morning hours, even on days of normal operations. I found out that the baggage system at T1 is proprietary to WN in some way, so extensive modifications would have to be made for any airline to move over there.

Growth is higher than anticipated. The numbers they're expecting this year are what they had originally planned for around 2023.

ERJ170 · Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:09 pm

I know DL hasn't added a new route in a while, but I believ.. and I could be wrong.. that their strategy right now is upgauging first.. less CRJs, CR7s.. and more CR9, 717/CS100.. I could see RDU as a 100 seat market with larger mainline for longer routes.. and then some new destinations?????

JamesRenard · Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:13 pm

OneJet just posted on their Twitter account that they plan on serving RDU. No details however of when flights will start or where they're flying to. I'm kinda cautious about the news though; last time OneJet announced service to RDU (with destination and start dates), it never materialised.

axiom · Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:54 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
I know DL hasn't added a new route in a while, but I believ.. and I could be wrong.. that their strategy right now is upgauging first.. less CRJs, CR7s.. and more CR9, 717/CS100.. I could see RDU as a 100 seat market with larger mainline for longer routes.. and then some new destinations?????

Definitely noticed the upguaging. Impressive to see DL turning daily mainline on routes like RDU-TPA!

rajincajun01 · Wed Feb 28, 2018 12:40 am

JamesRenard wrote:
OneJet just posted on their Twitter account that they plan on serving RDU. No details however of when flights will start or where they're flying to. I'm kinda cautious about the news though; last time OneJet announced service to RDU (with destination and start dates), it never materialised.

Hopefully third time is the charm. First was Louisville, then Buffalo. That being said they did hire a manager and currently hiring agents.

quintinsoloviev · Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:09 am

Does anybody think a flight from Raleigh to Sacramento work? Eather American, Southwest, or JetBlue.

ERJ170 · Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:14 am

It’s about time RDu got a new airline.. it’s been quite a drought.. looking for some Canadian and/or South of the States love, hopefully

afcjets · Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:33 am

quintinsoloviev wrote:
Does anybody think a flight from Raleigh to Sacramento work? Eather American, Southwest, or JetBlue.

Not sure but WN could also increase connecting opportunities with RDU-SMF, especially to all five LA area airports (BUR, LAX, LGB, ONT, SNA)

ADrum23 · Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:06 am

rajincajun01 wrote:
JamesRenard wrote:
OneJet just posted on their Twitter account that they plan on serving RDU. No details however of when flights will start or where they're flying to. I'm kinda cautious about the news though; last time OneJet announced service to RDU (with destination and start dates), it never materialised.

Hopefully third time is the charm. First was Louisville, then Buffalo. That being said they did hire a manager and currently hiring agents.

I wouldn’t count on OneJet at all, they are super erratic with their routes and often cancel them.

AVLAirlineFreq · Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:13 am

quintinsoloviev wrote:
Does anybody think a flight from Raleigh to Sacramento work? Eather American, Southwest, or JetBlue.

I would think SJC would be well ahead of SMF in terms of next to be served from RDU to northern California . And it won't be AA, which doesn't even fly RDU-PHX.

ERJ170 · Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:05 am

According to this article from Triangle Business Joirnal, RDU has outgrown itself by 7 years and are predicted to be at 2025 air service level by the end of 2018. So what does that mean? Adding several thousand parking spots and expanding Terminal 1 with reconfigured + new gates and added ticketing counters/baggage area.. which will either go to Southwest if they expand or airlines currently in Terminal 2...

It’s not surprising to see this was happening but hope they are methodical and not too over ambitious.

Thoughts?

And when is onejet announcing service? Teased it out several weeks ago and nothing else since...

rajincajun01 · Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:53 am

T2 is maxed out in the early mornings in terms of gates. It is a juggling act with VX, B6, F9 and UA. Look for a lot of inevitable chaos during thunderstorms in the coming months.

The RDUAA has about 6-8 projects in the works to alleviate some of these issues. A couple of those include building designated areas for RON aircraft.

The plan is in the works to begin expanding T1 towards the south, but that is a few years down the road. It will be a costly project because it will involve an additional screening area and new/modified baggage system. The RDUAA will be moving a few of the smaller airlines over from T2 once that happens.

As for OneJet, same story, different verse. They have teased RDU service three times now.

ERJ170 · Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:16 am

I always thought Term 1 was supposed to be the low cost terminal... does this mean charter express will have split ops then?

rajincajun01 · Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:31 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
I always thought Term 1 was supposed to be the low cost terminal... does this mean charter express will have split ops then?

That was the original intention. Plans are still fluid but F9, G4, AS, and possibly a new carrier have been discussed. Not sure about B6 as of now.

ERJ170 · Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:21 am

Been quiet out of RDU.. got some F9 flights starting up in a couple weeks, but otherwise been kinda quiet... any rumors of anything?

hockyluv21 · Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:22 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
Been quiet out of RDU.. got some F9 flights starting up in a couple weeks, but otherwise been kinda quiet... any rumors of anything?

Other than the recent hyperfocus on marketing the wild idea of an RDU-PEK nerd-bird, I haven't heard much from the RDU Authority. I wouldn't be surprised if WN makes MSY a daily service within the short term and tries out SJC in the medium-term, and I also wouldn't be surprised if DL enters the ORD and DFW business markets (their only real big-market holes in their RDU coverage) and starts testing out daily services in the places that F9 is experimenting ATM w/ less frequent service by this time next year. Barring something crazy like Amazon HQ2 or something like that, I don't see another European service in the cards, though LH RDU-FRA is a pipe dream of mine. Both the LHR and CDG services seem to be doing very well and any more service at this point would likely cannibalize, rather than grow, the market. All bets are off, however, if Amazon picks RTP, which once again is not likely.

Finally, I think that AS will eventually announce daily RDU-SAN once their VX ops are fully settled and integrated. I know that RDU-Pacific Northwest is a fast-growing market because of the maturation of the RDU-SEA route, but I think that AS RDU-PDX is still a ways away from reality. Maybe 2-3 more years off.

ERJ170 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:20 am

Wow! That’s a lot... I think DL has reached their milestone for now.. don’t look like they are gonna be doing much more expansion... I wouldn’t count of WN for much.. but would love to see 1 or 2 new airline but, alas, I think RDU is close to capacity... they could really use some more gates right about now...

hockyluv21 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:38 am

ERJ170 wrote:
Wow! That’s a lot... I think DL has reached their milestone for now.. don’t look like they are gonna be doing much more expansion... I wouldn’t count of WN for much.. but would love to see 1 or 2 new airline but, alas, I think RDU is close to capacity... they could really use some more gates right about now...

It's a lot to believe that every single one of my predictions comes true, of course, but RDU is a very fast growing area with some particularly fast growing aviation markets (notably on the West Coast), so I think a few of my predictions will come to fruition. At the very least, I believe that daily SAN service is only a matter of time.

Also I know that when T2 was constructed ~10 years ago, it was built well above the necessary gate requirements at the time. Don't know if that's true today, but in a pinch I'm sure they can modify T1 like they did back in the old days and put some temporary gates there. You could then get F9 and G4 to relocate to that expansion.

Speaking of market stimulation, I'm curious to see how much the RDU-CDG O&D market has grown in terms of PDEW since the daily non-stop was introduced. LHR probably still leads that category by a long shot due to deep business ties, but it'll still be interesting to see how much the CDG demand catches up.

filipair · Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:38 am

hockyluv21 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Speaking of market stimulation, I'm curious to see how much the RDU-CDG O&D market has grown in terms of PDEW since the daily non-stop was introduced. LHR probably still leads that category by a long shot due to deep business ties, but it'll still be interesting to see how much the CDG demand catches up.

One thing about the Europe flights is that they are super expensive compared to similar flights out of DC, New York, Miami, etc. I have a feeling there is quite a lot of untapped demand for cheaper direct flights. This summer, RDU-LHR direct is selling for $1800 roundtrip and RDU-CDG for $1500 in Economy. That's crazy compared to sub $600 direct flights out of JFK in June/July. Lufthansa would bring in some price pressure. And Norwegian or WOW would be truly great in getting low fares to Europe from RDU. Fingers crossed for all three!

ERJ170 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:26 pm

Agreed. Right now, AA and DL can charge what they want because they do not have any low cost competition.. so the number of persons traveling may be slightly lower but they money they are making should be great compared to places that have a WOW or Norwegian competitive flight. I think a third airline will come, no idea who or when. But I still think gate space has slowed down DO growth because it’s now become a premium... T2 is a bit crowded... and with the gates at T1 unusable and Charter Express not wanting to split ops (but isn’t that growth), there isn’t much to do. Why would you build gates and not put them on the baggage system though? Who does that????

Alaska could grow more out of their one gate. At least add a second SEA and a SAN. But I don’t think they will right now.. I don’t know why...

Air Canada is LONG overdue to add a YUL flight.. I mean, It could be just a single daily or single week day but no.. nothing.. sheesh!

And I feel like AA dropping PIT is always on the cusp... who would pick that up?

Let me stop babbling

rajincajun01 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:33 pm

hockyluv21 wrote:
Also I know that when T2 was constructed ~10 years ago, it was built well above the necessary gate requirements at the time. Don't know if that's true today, but in a pinch I'm sure they can modify T1 like they did back in the old days and put some temporary gates there. You could then get F9 and G4 to relocate to that expansion.

T2 is at max capacity in the mornings thanks to being down two gates, and has been relying on F9, B6, VX, and UA to work together in shuffling gates. It creates a bit of chaos when the red eyes come in early. AA and DL also do a number of tows for overnight aircraft as is.

The problem with additional Europe flights is timing and gates. RDU can’t take on anymore international flights on Saturday in the afternoon thanks to Cancun flights. They have a plan that would allow three widebodies simultaneously, but timing has to be perfect for arrivals and portions of taxiway shut down while a widebody is at C23. There is also a plan to bring in baggage claim 2 into customs on a temporary basis when needed.

T1 is expansion can’t necessarily be done “in a pinch”. In a bit of shortsightedness, another security/screening area would have to be developed, and technology modified because T1 has tech that is proprietary to Southwest. All of that is in the works, but will take a couple years to get moving.

hockyluv21 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 3:14 pm

filipair wrote:
hockyluv21 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Speaking of market stimulation, I'm curious to see how much the RDU-CDG O&D market has grown in terms of PDEW since the daily non-stop was introduced. LHR probably still leads that category by a long shot due to deep business ties, but it'll still be interesting to see how much the CDG demand catches up.

One thing about the Europe flights is that they are super expensive compared to similar flights out of DC, New York, Miami, etc. I have a feeling there is quite a lot of untapped demand for cheaper direct flights. This summer, RDU-LHR direct is selling for $1800 roundtrip and RDU-CDG for $1500 in Economy. That's crazy compared to sub $600 direct flights out of JFK in June/July. Lufthansa would bring in some price pressure. And Norwegian or WOW would be truly great in getting low fares to Europe from RDU. Fingers crossed for all three!

RDU is a relatively small but very high-yielding market to Europe, probably because it's a majority-business clientele (particularly on weekdays) and almost nobody comes here for a vacation. It's a matter of protecting the possibility of cannibalization regarding why I think the Airport Authority is focusing on Beijing rather than Frankfurt as their next Int'l target. All bets are off if the long-shot HQ2 bid comes to fruition, since Int'l business travel will likely explode in such a scenario, but besides that a 3rd Euro flight is not happening short-term IMO. I will say that if a Beijing flight ever becomes reality, I think it will be way more successful than anticipated. The vast majority of RDU-Asia traffic is to China, and the business ties between the region will only get stronger over the next decade as Lenovo grows and other Chinese companies start operations here in the future.

ERJ170 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:29 pm

China traffic outpaces India? There is a much larger Native Indian population in NC

rajincajun01 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:35 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
China traffic outpaces India? There is a much larger Native Indian population in NC

I’m guessing China is more business travel. India is less so.

davescj · Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:40 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
China traffic outpaces India? There is a much larger Native Indian population in NC

I"m guessing China outpaces due to manufacturing, pharmaceutical research and manufacturing, and the financial sector.

wenders825 · Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:47 pm

two things:

1. i see little reason for AA to drop PIT. it does pretty well and generally goes out full

2. india indeed dominates china. AA and DL send tons of people on their TATL flights, and UA/B6 send a lot of connects through their partners too. at least on AA, china traffic isn’t overwhelmingly massive. i think it’s a little overstated but that’s just me

rajincajun01 · Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:15 am

wenders825 wrote:
1. i see little reason for AA to drop PIT. it does pretty well and generally goes out full.

When I worked that flight and it was 3x daily, it rarely went full. Just because a flight is full doesn’t mean it’s profitable, or that there isn’t a better yield on another route for Trans States. AA hasn’t been concerned with marketshare at RDU for years.

hockyluv21 · Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:57 am

wenders825 wrote:
two things:

1. i see little reason for AA to drop PIT. it does pretty well and generally goes out full

2. india indeed dominates china. AA and DL send tons of people on their TATL flights, and UA/B6 send a lot of connects through their partners too. at least on AA, china traffic isn’t overwhelmingly massive. i think it’s a little overstated but that’s just me

I should've said Far East; no question that RDU-India is the biggest international market from RDU outside of Europe and the Americas. I was specifically referring to the traffic flows that go across the Pacific Ocean, like Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, HKG, China, Singapore, etc. From RDU, that traffic tends to be very China-centric from the data that I have seen..Even though India is an Asian country, those flows tend to connect in Europe (LHR, CDG) or the Atlantic hubs, mainly the JFK/BOS -> DXB -> India pattern, so I sort of treat India as its own market.

hockyluv21 · Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:17 am

ERJ170 wrote:
China traffic outpaces India? There is a much larger Native Indian population in NC

My instincts separate India from Asia all the time, even though I know in my head that India is an Asian country. Pardon the confusion.

Noise · Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:37 am

ERJ170 wrote:
China traffic outpaces India? There is a much larger Native Indian population in NC

Lenovo, with their dual RTP & Beijing HQ, is responsible for a lot of traffic between the two regions.

ERJ170 · Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:44 am

Oh.. Lenovo, I’m not mixup of words, has stated there will be a nonstop to China and they would pony up the guarantee it requires.. I’ve read/heard that many times.. but I’m assuming it can’t happen due to the runway, yet...

But it would be nice for some other local international service.. like NAS, YUL or YOW, and at least one or two Caribbean (weekly service would do). I mean, none of the charter companies (Apple, Vacation Express) even offer the service! What’s up with that?

AVLAirlineFreq · Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Frontier to begin RDU to PWM, MDT, and SYR this summer: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/busine ... 34524.html. Service will be seasonal and less than daily.

▪ Syracuse flights start July 2 and will run on Mondays and Fridays.

▪ Portland service starts July 21 with flights on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

▪ Harrisburg flights also begin July 21 and will run on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

All service will run through November, though an exact end date has not been set.

hockyluv21 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:18 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Frontier to begin RDU to PWM, MDT, and SYR this summer: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/busine ... 34524.html. Service will be seasonal and less than daily.

▪ Syracuse flights start July 2 and will run on Mondays and Fridays.

▪ Portland service starts July 21 with flights on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

▪ Harrisburg flights also begin July 21 and will run on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

All service will run through November, though an exact end date has not been set.

PWM seems a bit dartboard-ish, but I could see SYR and MDT doing pretty well as stimulated ULCC leisure markets. A large portion of the transplant population in RDU, particularly the Cary/Apex suburbs, are from PA and Upstate NY. I could see both working as seasonal, VFR-oriented flights. I'm sure there's lot of potential customers for these flights that currently drive. I get the feeling that places like ALB, ISP, and SWF are other untapped markets for that particular crowd.

hockyluv21 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:44 pm

Here's the current map of Frontier's network in RDU so far (almost entirely seasonal):

As you can see, individually the routes sometimes make little sense, but the map itself has a sense to it. They're almost entirely staying away from the beach markets that G4 focuses on, instead going for leisure routes oriented to transplant/VFR markets in the Midwest and the Northeast. Interesting strategy, I must say. It certainly makes for unusual, Ryanair-like routes.

thegreatRDU · Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:34 pm

filipair wrote:
hockyluv21 wrote:
ERJ170 wrote:
Speaking of market stimulation, I'm curious to see how much the RDU-CDG O&D market has grown in terms of PDEW since the daily non-stop was introduced. LHR probably still leads that category by a long shot due to deep business ties, but it'll still be interesting to see how much the CDG demand catches up.

One thing about the Europe flights is that they are super expensive compared to similar flights out of DC, New York, Miami, etc. I have a feeling there is quite a lot of untapped demand for cheaper direct flights. This summer, RDU-LHR direct is selling for $1800 roundtrip and RDU-CDG for $1500 in Economy. That's crazy compared to sub $600 direct flights out of JFK in June/July. Lufthansa would bring in some price pressure. And Norwegian or WOW would be truly great in getting low fares to Europe from RDU. Fingers crossed for all three!

WOW Air is our best shot, I really hope they do come because I've made the drive several times to IAD just so I could take advantage of <$700 RT transatlantic fares.

thegreatRDU · Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:34 pm

I'm crossing my fingers for F9 service to ISP, hopefully next time!

ERJ170 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:27 pm

I’m ready for a new DL announcement..

josepha1 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:33 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Frontier to begin RDU to PWM, MDT, and SYR this summer: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/busine ... 34524.html. Service will be seasonal and less than daily.

▪ Syracuse flights start July 2 and will run on Mondays and Fridays.

▪ Portland service starts July 21 with flights on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays.

▪ Harrisburg flights also begin July 21 and will run on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

All service will run through November, though an exact end date has not been set.

I will be flying on the SYR route this summer. I am extremely excited as I do not have to fly on RJ's through DC or NYC. :bouncy:

hockyluv21 · Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:36 pm

The list of top 5 inserted Int'l destinations from RDU in 2017 was recently released to the public. These were, in order of largest to smallest:

1. Mexico City, MX
2. Montego Bay, JM
3. Punta Cana, DR
4. Beijing, CN
5. Shanghai, CN (tie)
5. Montreal, QC (tie)

As I said before, RDU-India is a larger market than RDU-China in general, but it's also way more fragmented. It's also interesting to see how Far East traffic from RDU is so China-centric. According to the the RDU Authority, our market is now the 3rd largest unserved US market from China after MCO and DEN, if I recall correctly. RDU-MBJ and RDU-PUJ both sound like prime G4 material if they ever decide to go international.

ERJ170 · Wed May 02, 2018 12:43 am

So, with Frontier up to 20 destinations.. do we think RDU is attractive enough to land Spirit, Aeromexico, or Westjet? Some new tails would be nice. Or are we thinking the push by DL and Frontier will hinder new airlines? Just thinking out loud.. What do ya'll think?

Midwestindy · Wed May 02, 2018 12:49 am

ERJ170 wrote:
So, with Frontier up to 20 destinations.. do we think RDU is attractive enough to land Spirit, Aeromexico, or Westjet? Some new tails would be nice. Or are we thinking the push by DL and Frontier will hinder new airlines? Just thinking out loud.. What do ya'll think?

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... rdu-a.html

cvgComair · Wed May 02, 2018 12:49 am

ERJ170 wrote:
So, with Frontier up to 20 destinations.. do we think RDU is attractive enough to land Spirit, Aeromexico, or Westjet? Some new tails would be nice. Or are we thinking the push by DL and Frontier will hinder new airlines? Just thinking out loud.. What do ya'll think?

Given that F9 is operating the equivalent of only 4-5 flights/day due to low frequency, I see no reason why they would inhibit Spirit. After WestJet added BNA, it also seems like an attractive option for RDU (especially since DL does not serve Canada from RDU like it does from CVG/ATL/DTW/MSP).

KMCOFlyer · Wed May 02, 2018 1:25 am

If RDU supposedly is “Maxed Out” in T2, why doesn’t RDU move F9 and or G4 over to T1? Aren’t there 4 empty gates currently in T1 not being used?

AVLAirlineFreq · Wed May 02, 2018 1:34 am

Aeromexico would be a really, really long shot, as it would operate right over ATL. I don't ever see that happening.

ERJ170 · Wed May 02, 2018 1:40 am

KMCOFlyer wrote:
If RDU supposedly is “Maxed Out” in T2, why doesn’t RDU move F9 and or G4 over to T1? Aren’t there 4 empty gates currently in T1 not being used?

In someone’s wisdom, they did not connect the gates to the baggage system... but there are 2 empty gates still in T2

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