Congratulations to RDU and 11.6 Million passengers... that’s some good numbers and been steadily increasing every year... international up 27% too... and added 9 new nonstops, 2 new cities, and 1 new airline...

What will the future hold? Is it sustainable?

ScrantonUSC wrote:

144 PDEW from RDU-SAN. That should be good enough for a new flight, so I think it’s a matter of who pulls the trigger and finding the right plane that’s available. Do the cities have Pharma links?

Most definitely! San Diego/La Jolla is a HUGE medical and pharmaceutical research center! (I worked for many years for a company named Quintiles, now known as IQVIA based in Durham; the San Diego Quintiles division was, when I worked there, a large chunk of the entire company, mainly clinical research. I assume there is still a large presence of that company in SAN.)

ScrantonUSC wrote:

I’d start to question Delta’s “Focus City” marketing, if Alaska pulls the tigger first. Southwest would also make sense, but despite their market % at RDU, I don’t think it’s their kind of flight.

Noise wrote:

Eh common now...Focus City doesn't mean "must serve very viable market under the sun".

With the right aircraft and the right timing, I'm sure DL would do it. I am also certain at AS would do the same if they were ready, given their Focus City ops at SAN.

As I've posted before on the RDU threads, I feel that RDU-SAN is just now maturing into a market able to support nonstop service; RDU has recently become one of the largest un-served domestic nonstop markets out of SAN and I agree that it should support a daily, permanent flight. Due to the length of the route, it would of course have to be mainline equipment on AAG or DL.

My opinion on the cx options is that I would have loved to see AS jump on it this year but I do not see that happening. Next year? It will prolly be too late. AAG has really tightened the reins on expansion for 2018 and I'm afraid that this is another market that they will surrender to either WN or possibly DL. WN would have the most connecting options available (thru SAN anyway) and they are very aggressive here right now, grabbing routes right out from under AAG's nose! (In 2017, WN started 5 new routes from SAN to AAG's 9! There's major competition there.)

DL just doesn't do p-2-p flying from SAN. They do have a very healthy op in SAN (~40 daily departures, a majority of them mainline) but the last attempt at p-2-p was a SAN-SJD flight that operated a few years ago for about 4-6 departures! Now if RDU is enough of a focus city for them, then they just might do it -- especially if they can also poke a stick in AS's eye in the process!

At this point in time, I would have to put my money on WN as the carrier to jump first. There's obviously enough O&D for one of their smaller 737s, and the connecting opportunities would be gravy. And there would be incentives in place in SAN for a new domestic route (but no subsidies.) WN has the airplanes apparently, plus HI service will be starting soon, from SAN, so perhaps there might some decent connections from RDU to The Islands!

I DO hope it happens!

bb

Maybe when DL receives the CS100s, RDU-SAN would happen on DL?

I believe Delta could use the Airbus A319-100 they use on the RDU-SEA route for a new RDU-SAN flight.
Currently DL Flight 2556 Departs RDU at 7:15 am and Arrives SEA at 10:35 am and then Returns as DL Flight 2540 Departing SEA at 11:35 am and arriving back at RDU at 7:45 pm. So what if Delta added an evening departure to SAN and a red-eye flight inbound to RDU?

NCavi8tor wrote:

So what if Delta added an evening departure to SAN and a red-eye flight inbound to RDU?

I think such flight timing may not be attractive for business travelers. The west bound flight would arrive very late, and the redeye east bound flight would also be less than desirable.

I agree that the flight timing may not be the best, but its always an option if it comes down. Thus, when LAX was introduced into the market, Delta began the route as a red-eye flight and it was very profitable.

Frontier will be announcing a decent expansion tomorrow at RDU.

rajincajun01 wrote:

Frontier will be announcing a decent expansion tomorrow at RDU.

10:30 AM in Terminal 2

According to the rumors in the following thread, it actually does look significant.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1385947&p=20155907&hilit=rdu#p20155907

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... on-at.html

Sources say the carrier is supposed to announce flights out of RDU to Houston; San Antonio; Buffalo, New York; and San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Houston is a mistake. With the right amount of service the others will be successful. Especially with the new programs RDU announced last year for new destinations. May be a good strategy move to ensure DL and other carriers can’t cash in on those incentives.

Looks like Frontier is expanding tomorrow according to the Frontier thread.. I looked and saw the following additions:

BUF, IAH, MKE, MSY, SAT, SJU

So the Frontier routes out of RDU are AUS, BUF, CVG, CLE, DEN, IAH, MKE, MCI, MSY, MCO, DEN, PVD, SAT, SJU, TTN, LAS, PHL

Wonder if they will move to Terminal 1 to get an additional gate or stay in Terminal 2 and use the 1 gate they have.. hmmmm

So with F9 now having 15 destinations, is there a need for them to get another gate? if so, where will they go? Is the time now for them to go to T1?

ERJ170 wrote:

So with F9 now having 15 destinations, is there a need for them to get another gate? if so, where will they go? Is the time now for them to go to T1?

I'd guess that they will have to, but who knows with their infrequent schedules. Have they released the schedules and operating days yet?

They have 15 destinations but several are seasonal. Many others are not served daily. I noticed almost immediately Charter Express posted a job listing for agent positions. Chapter Express also does Allegiant, Alaska, and ramp for JetBlue.

Maybe they will have enough staff to be able to works gates in T1 and T2... but the bigger question is.. Will DL respond? Will WN? Will anybody?

ERJ170 wrote:

Maybe they will have enough staff to be able to works gates in T1 and T2... but the bigger question is.. Will DL respond? Will WN? Will anybody?

WN could add RDU-OAK and RDU-SJC nonstop service in order to better compete against AS/VX since AS/VX recently added RDU-SFO nonstop service. The Research Triangle, Silicon Valley, and the San Francisco Bay Area are all major hi-tech corridors. There is also demand for flights to RDU from SJC with major hi-tech companies that have a presence in both Silicon Valley and the Research Triangle, including Cisco, IBM, NetApp, and Qualcomm.

WN could also add RDU-AUS nonstop service since AUS is located in a major hi-tech corridor, since WN still has significant market share at RDU (even with the DL focus city at RDU), since AUS is located in WN's home state of Texas, since WN already serves two other destinations in Texas (DAL and HOU) nonstop from RDU, and since there are some travelers in Greater Austin who prefer to fly on WN over DL or F9.

WN could also add RDU-MCI nonstop service since WN has over 50% market share at MCI, since RDU is currently one of the top destinations from MCI that isn't currently served nonstop from MCI, and since there are many customers in the Kansas City area who prefer to fly on WN over other airlines.

UA just added a second SFO flight again on top of the VX/AS flight. I think three flights to the Bay Area are plenty, even though there is a demand for SJC.

AUS now has two carriers on the route, plus Frontier to SAT which only about an hour away.

I doubt you will see WN add MCI now. There isn't enough demand for two carriers on the route. They already offer direct service via BNA.

SAN has to be the next domestic location to land service. I'm still hoping Alaska launches this in the near future. WN could surprise us by beating them to it though. They did add TPA-SAN recently.

I only count F9 adds as 1/2 of a new city. Their commitments are so fleeting, they don’t seem to have a real concrete strategy like B6 and WN did when they grew from nothing, the frequency is no suitable to business travelers. Oh yeah, plus on the days they do fly it’s too many seats. Need to keep finding more commitment on these new routes, maybe DL will continue committing.

ncflyer wrote:

I only count F9 adds as 1/2 of a new city. Their commitments are so fleeting, they don’t seem to have a real concrete strategy like B6 and WN did when they grew from nothing, the frequency is no suitable to business travelers. Oh yeah, plus on the days they do fly it’s too many seats. Need to keep finding more commitment on these new routes, maybe DL will continue committing.

F9 doesn’t target business travelers like they do leisure. Seems their strategy is utilize incentives airports are offering to start point to point service without competition (ex. BUF, MKE, MCI).

Allegiant recently announced non-stop to Destin, Flroda, which begins June 8. And Southwest just announced RDU-MCI, which will beat Frontier's recently announced service by 1 day, April 8.

So, we've had a bunch of activity in the last week, but nothing sexy. The recent MCI add is the most significant imo, with it being a daily flight and ending a long bout of stagnation at RDU with Southwest. I'm still suspiciously reserved on Frontiers flurry of new non-stops until I see a schedule.

I'm still patiently waiting for the SAN add

ScrantonUSC wrote:

Allegiant recently announced non-stop to Destin, Flroda, which begins June 8. And Southwest just announced RDU-MCI, which will beat Frontier's recently announced service by 1 day, April 8.

So, we've had a bunch of activity in the last week, but nothing sexy. The recent MCI add is the most significant imo, with it being a daily flight and ending a long bout of stagnation at RDU with Southwest. I'm still suspiciously reserved on Frontiers flurry of new non-stops until I see a schedule.

I'm still patiently waiting for the SAN add

Hoping for AS to pull the trigger on this.

Also hoping for RDU-PDX, with AS.

Finally, still wishing for RDU-YUL.

Delta is steadily upgaugong flights, which is good and I think RDU will see some Cseries... but they need to announce some routes soon and quit tripping! Sheesh! And Alaska too! PDX and SAM please... and another SEA

I'm surprised that daily MCI happened before daily MSY. I'm guessing that Southwest will upgauge the frequency there relatively soon, though.

Noise wrote:

ScrantonUSC wrote:

Allegiant recently announced non-stop to Destin, Flroda, which begins June 8. And Southwest just announced RDU-MCI, which will beat Frontier's recently announced service by 1 day, April 8.

So, we've had a bunch of activity in the last week, but nothing sexy. The recent MCI add is the most significant imo, with it being a daily flight and ending a long bout of stagnation at RDU with Southwest. I'm still suspiciously reserved on Frontiers flurry of new non-stops until I see a schedule.

I'm still patiently waiting for the SAN add

Hoping for AS to pull the trigger on this.

Also hoping for RDU-PDX, with AS.

WN has been recently expanding at OAK, SJC, and SAN in order to better compete against AS in California, and WN might possibly add RDU-SAN nonstop service in response to AS adding RDU-SAN nonstop service.

jplatts wrote:

Noise wrote:

ScrantonUSC wrote:

Allegiant recently announced non-stop to Destin, Flroda, which begins June 8. And Southwest just announced RDU-MCI, which will beat Frontier's recently announced service by 1 day, April 8.

So, we've had a bunch of activity in the last week, but nothing sexy. The recent MCI add is the most significant imo, with it being a daily flight and ending a long bout of stagnation at RDU with Southwest. I'm still suspiciously reserved on Frontiers flurry of new non-stops until I see a schedule.

I'm still patiently waiting for the SAN add

Hoping for AS to pull the trigger on this.

Also hoping for RDU-PDX, with AS.

WN has been recently expanding at OAK, SJC, and SAN in order to better compete against AS in California, and WN might possibly add RDU-SAN nonstop service in response to AS adding RDU-SAN nonstop service.

Well, neither have happened yet so we shall see.

rajincajun01 wrote:

ncflyer wrote:

I only count F9 adds as 1/2 of a new city. Their commitments are so fleeting, they don’t seem to have a real concrete strategy like B6 and WN did when they grew from nothing, the frequency is no suitable to business travelers. Oh yeah, plus on the days they do fly it’s too many seats. Need to keep finding more commitment on these new routes, maybe DL will continue committing.

F9 doesn’t target business travelers like they do leisure. Seems their strategy is utilize incentives airports are offering to start point to point service without competition (ex. BUF, MKE, MCI).

Also, F9 tends to stimulate markets by attracting ULCC tourism, both the VFR kind and the short vacation kind. A market like RDU-BUF almost certainly will appeal to all of the Upstate NY transplants who live in Cary, for example.

According to a recent TBJ article, the top unserved markets with PDEW:
1) San Diego - 144
2) Portland - 86
3) San Jose - 82

San Juan and San Antonio each had over 80 PDEW per day, but were included in Frontier's RDU expansion.

rajincajun01 wrote:

I doubt you will see WN add MCI now. There isn't enough demand for two carriers on the route.

Well damn. Didn’t see that coming. Glad to see WN grow again at RDU. Three new routes in the last year or so. Now, how long will F9 stay on the route?

hockyluv21 wrote:

I'm surprised that daily MCI happened before daily MSY. I'm guessing that Southwest will upgauge the frequency there relatively soon, though.

Surprised not to have a daily RDU-MSY yet. It was about 140 PDEW as of last spring and probably will grow with F9 on it 2 weekly this summer - much more than MCI-RDU. October is usually our second busiest month, so the next release would be a good time for WN to add it.

OAG has some good and bad news this week:

AA DFW-RDU JUL 5>6
B6 BOS-RDU SEP 5>6
B6 JFK-RDU JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
G4 CVG-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 PGD-RDU JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.0 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-RDU SEP 0.3>0.0 (response to DL going mainline on TPA seasonally?)
G4 RDU-SFB SEP 0.3>0.0
WN LAS-RDU JUL 1.8>1.1 (in response to F9?)
WN MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.2

rajincajun01 wrote:

G4 CVG-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 PGD-RDU JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.0 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-RDU SEP 0.3>0.0 (response to DL going mainline on TPA seasonally?)
G4 RDU-SFB SEP 0.3>0.0

These are probably not real changes, this is pretty typical when G4 extends their schedule. Usually very few of these cuts are actually happening.

cvgComair wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

G4 CVG-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 PGD-RDU JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.0 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-RDU SEP 0.3>0.0 (response to DL going mainline on TPA seasonally?)
G4 RDU-SFB SEP 0.3>0.0

These are probably not real changes, this is pretty typical when G4 extends their schedule. Usually very few of these cuts are actually happening.

Those are real, they all check out... remember G4 is losing 7 planes by the end of the year so cuts are being made.

rajincajun01 wrote:

OAG has some good and bad news this week:

AA DFW-RDU JUL 5>6
B6 BOS-RDU SEP 5>6
B6 JFK-RDU JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
G4 CVG-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 PGD-RDU JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.0 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-RDU SEP 0.3>0.0 (response to DL going mainline on TPA seasonally?)
G4 RDU-SFB SEP 0.3>0.0
WN LAS-RDU JUL 1.8>1.1 (in response to F9?)
WN MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0.2

Thanks for posting the overview but it appears to be copied from Enilria's weekly OAG update. Might be a good idea to credit his work if that's the case.

just curious about the B6 part, they are going to be up to 11 daily flights by September from 7 to 8 a year ago. Seems like all their flights are out of one gate based on what I can see on flightstats. Is there a second gate available for them (or enough CUTE gates space) to increase to add more flights?

They sometimes use C8 and C10.. RDU is cute so it should not be a problem to get the gate space they need when they need it.. They can always use C21 if Delta CDG flight is not in

JetBlue's plan as of last time I talked to their management said they would be leasing C8 and C10 once the moving of DL, UA and AA were complete.

Midwestindy wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

G4 CVG-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 MSY-RDU AUG 0.3>0.1
G4 PGD-RDU JUN 0.4>0.3 JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.0 OCT 0.5>0.3
G4 PIE-RDU SEP 0.3>0.0 (response to DL going mainline on TPA seasonally?)
G4 RDU-SFB SEP 0.3>0.0

These are probably not real changes, this is pretty typical when G4 extends their schedule. Usually very few of these cuts are actually happening.

Those are real, they all check out... remember G4 is losing 7 planes by the end of the year so cuts are being made.

G4 looks like it is taking a hiatus in RDU for the month of September (after Labor Day weekend). Most of these routes return in October.

Triangle Business Journal had a paywalled article yesterday about RDU making a much harder push for a RDU-PEK nonstop. Considering the recent expansion of Lenovo in RTP, I do wonder if there will be more Chinese-origin corporate presence in the area over the next 10 years, which would make a nonstop Beijing flight more plausible, sort of the same way that RDU-LHR became a year-round 777 and a 20+ year fixture here.

So, the discussion of the China flight went off today.. with the China symposium. Looks like the outcome was looking for 3x weekly service, currently 67 daily pax, 75,400 pax flew to the Triangle in 2017 (more than PHL, MCO, STL), service needed to the beaches and mountains, better brand in China (digital media blast in China), 3 to 7 years before fruition, more Chinese language in the region and at the airport, more Chinese accustomed payments like Unionpay, Alipay, Wepay. Chinese are looking at more than shopping, but things like restaurants, parks and natural areas, outdoor activities like hunting and shooting...

Thoughts???

WNCN report

Triangle Business Journal report

With HU's expansion, I wouldn't be surprised if they became the BA of Asia and began nonstop to mid-sized markets in the US. RDU would be a perfect testing point for this. I know at least RDU, BNA and AUS have all been pretty public about wanting Asia flights, whether its NRT, PEK, ICN or otherwise, it will be interesting to see how this quest unfolds.

Some DL changes for RDU:
RDU-AUS goes from daily to 5x/wk effective April 7 (loaded earlier, but not discussed here)
RDU-DCA gains Sat service effective March 10
RDU-EWR gains Sat service effective May 19
RDU-CVG gains Sat service effective June 16

cvgComair wrote:

Some DL changes for RDU:
RDU-AUS goes from daily to 5x/wk effective April 7 (loaded earlier, but not discussed here)
RDU-DCA gains Sat service effective March 10
RDU-EWR gains Sat service effective May 19
RDU-CVG gains Sat service effective June 16

That's interesting. First AUS lost its upgauge now it's losing frequency. Is this flight not doing so hot for DL?

Rafale9312 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

Some DL changes for RDU:
RDU-AUS goes from daily to 5x/wk effective April 7 (loaded earlier, but not discussed here)
RDU-DCA gains Sat service effective March 10
RDU-EWR gains Sat service effective May 19
RDU-CVG gains Sat service effective June 16

That's interesting. First AUS lost its upgauge now it's losing frequency. Is this flight not doing so hot for DL?

Wouldn't surprise me if this flight is struggling a little. F9 entering the market must hurt DL.

So.. with all this new retail opening in the airport, does anyone besides me think they missed an opportunity to have some cool and unique stores in it? I mean, how many Hudson stores are needed? Get something unique like A Southern Season or Raleigh denim or Bull Durham shop or something that would get people things they can only get in the Triangle versus everywhere else... MSY and IND has the right idea..

Noise wrote:

Rafale9312 wrote:

cvgComair wrote:

Some DL changes for RDU:
RDU-AUS goes from daily to 5x/wk effective April 7 (loaded earlier, but not discussed here)
RDU-DCA gains Sat service effective March 10
RDU-EWR gains Sat service effective May 19
RDU-CVG gains Sat service effective June 16

That's interesting. First AUS lost its upgauge now it's losing frequency. Is this flight not doing so hot for DL?

Wouldn't surprise me if this flight is struggling a little. F9 entering the market must hurt DL.

It was 5x weekly almost all of last year, so the RDU-AUS flight is basically the same schedule it was last year

Midwestindy wrote:

Noise wrote:

Rafale9312 wrote:

That's interesting. First AUS lost its upgauge now it's losing frequency. Is this flight not doing so hot for DL?

Wouldn't surprise me if this flight is struggling a little. F9 entering the market must hurt DL.

It was 5x weekly almost all of last year, so the RDU-AUS flight is basically the same schedule it was last year

My bad. It was launched as daily, but I was not aware it weant back down to 5x/week last year. Hopefully DL tries putting the 717/CSeries on the route for 2019.

Midwestindy wrote:

Noise wrote:

Rafale9312 wrote:

That's interesting. First AUS lost its upgauge now it's losing frequency. Is this flight not doing so hot for DL?

Wouldn't surprise me if this flight is struggling a little. F9 entering the market must hurt DL.

It was 5x weekly almost all of last year, so the RDU-AUS flight is basically the same schedule it was last year

Thanks for the clarification! That totally went over my head when I made that first comment.

RDU is seeing some nice upgauges from S17--->S18

RDU-SLC-B738/A320--->A321
RDU-MCO-3x CR9--->3x B717
RDU-BOS-all CR9--->2x-4x B717
RDU-CUN-MD88/A319--->B738

Those are the ones I noticed, I didn't check CR2-->CR7, CR7-->CR9, e.t.c