rajincajun01 wrote:

If you are worried about AA in RDU, you need to focus on keeping PIT, not seeing more PHL reductions, and how LHR is performing with a 777. There are only two days the rest of the month LHR that have less than 120 seats open. Some days over 200 seats open.

How is AA doing on RDU-LHR? And for comparison's sake, how is RDU-CDG doing on DL?

I always thought a 777 was too much for AA's RDU-LHR, a 787 would be more appropriate IMO.

Plus, with DL opening a focus city in RDU, perhaps business travelers are switching away from AA to DL. Maybe DL takes over RDU-LHR at some point.

ADrum23 wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

If you are worried about AA in RDU, you need to focus on keeping PIT, not seeing more PHL reductions, and how LHR is performing with a 777. There are only two days the rest of the month LHR that have less than 120 seats open. Some days over 200 seats open.

How is AA doing on RDU-LHR? And for comparison's sake, how is RDU-CDG doing on DL?

I always thought a 777 was too much for AA's RDU-LHR, a 787 would be more appropriate IMO.

Plus, with DL opening a focus city in RDU, perhaps business travelers are switching away from AA to DL. Maybe DL takes over RDU-LHR at some point.

For 2017
Jan-July-RDU-LHR was at 71%, LHR-RDU at 67%
RDU-CDG-84%, CDG-RDU-80%

No idea about Avg fares, but RDU-LHR could always go down to a 757 if need be...

jplatts wrote:

Southwest used to have nonstop service from RDU to PHL before dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 5 years ago, but Delta had did add RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 6 months after Southwest discontinued RDU-PHL nonstop service. There were some individuals who did not like Southwest dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service 5 years ago.

Is the demand really there for additional nonstop service to PHL beyond the existing RDU-PHL nonstop service on AA and DL? Will Southwest ever bring back RDU-PHL nonstop service in the future?

Doubtful. AA doesn’t even fill up their PHL. DL’s strategy has been to take local traffic going to AA hubs. That’s why you saw them add MIA and an additional LAX too. DL has been brilliant with the markets they’ve added at RDU.

Midwestindy wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

If you are worried about AA in RDU, you need to focus on keeping PIT, not seeing more PHL reductions, and how LHR is performing with a 777. There are only two days the rest of the month LHR that have less than 120 seats open. Some days over 200 seats open.

How is AA doing on RDU-LHR? And for comparison's sake, how is RDU-CDG doing on DL?

I always thought a 777 was too much for AA's RDU-LHR, a 787 would be more appropriate IMO.

Plus, with DL opening a focus city in RDU, perhaps business travelers are switching away from AA to DL. Maybe DL takes over RDU-LHR at some point.

For 2017
Jan-July-RDU-LHR was at 71%, LHR-RDU at 67%
RDU-CDG-84%, CDG-RDU-80%

No idea about Avg fares, but RDU-LHR could always go down to a 757 if need be...

Wow, those numbers are really going down. Do you guys think this is an overcapacity issue, or is DL taking the business travelers away from AA with its focus city operation and as such, business travelers use the CDG flight instead?

I also wonder if AA were to axe this route (not saying that's happening, but if they continue to lose ground at RDU, you never know), would DL take it over?

ADrum23 wrote:

I also wonder if AA were to axe this route (not saying that's happening, but if they continue to lose ground at RDU, you never know), would DL take it over?

Very unlikely. First, the route has been around for about 25 years. It is largely supported by corporate business travel and cargo.

Plus, DL has no feed in LHR.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I also wonder if AA were to axe this route (not saying that's happening, but if they continue to lose ground at RDU, you never know), would DL take it over?

Very unlikely. First, the route has been around for about 25 years. It is largely supported by corporate business travel and cargo.

Plus, DL has no feed in LHR.

DL doesn't need feed in LHR, that is what CDG is for. A hypothetically RDU-LHR flight on DL would be for O&D traffic.

ADrum23 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

I also wonder if AA were to axe this route (not saying that's happening, but if they continue to lose ground at RDU, you never know), would DL take it over?

Very unlikely. First, the route has been around for about 25 years. It is largely supported by corporate business travel and cargo.

Plus, DL has no feed in LHR.

DL doesn't need feed in LHR, that is what CDG is for. A hypothetically RDU-LHR flight on DL would be for O&D traffic.

Overcapacity is an issue. A 787 would be best on the route depending on its cargo capacity.

RDU-LHR isn’t all local travelers, so feeding is important. Many people connect on to India on the flight.

Any chance for LHR on Delta metal? That would help out some of the pharmaceutical traffic as GSK has its US operations near Raleigh and its headquarters in the UK. Also, SJC could work if Delta wins a contract with Cisco for business travel (Cisco's second largest presence outside of the Silicon Valley is in Research Triangle Park, and GSK's US operations are based at Research Triangle Park as well). The former would work on a B763, but would be dependent on a company like GSK switching a contract from AA to DL, and the latter on a B738.

rajincajun01 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Very unlikely. First, the route has been around for about 25 years. It is largely supported by corporate business travel and cargo.

Plus, DL has no feed in LHR.

DL doesn't need feed in LHR, that is what CDG is for. A hypothetically RDU-LHR flight on DL would be for O&D traffic.

Overcapacity is an issue. A 787 would be best on the route depending on its cargo capacity.

RDU-LHR isn’t all local travelers, so feeding is important. Many people connect on to India on the flight.

Can’t India traffic connect in CDG? IIRC, AA is in T3 at LHR, while most of BA’s operations (including all of their India flights) are in T5, so one has to change terminals at LHR. Not the most convenient.

ADrum23 wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

DL doesn't need feed in LHR, that is what CDG is for. A hypothetically RDU-LHR flight on DL would be for O&D traffic.

Overcapacity is an issue. A 787 would be best on the route depending on its cargo capacity.

RDU-LHR isn’t all local travelers, so feeding is important. Many people connect on to India on the flight.

Can’t India traffic connect in CDG? IIRC, AA is in T3 at LHR, while most of BA’s operations (including all of their India flights) are in T5, so one has to change terminals at LHR. Not the most convenient.

Yes but Air France/KLM don’t fly to MAA or HYD, which are two of the most popular India destinations.

rajincajun01 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

Overcapacity is an issue. A 787 would be best on the route depending on its cargo capacity.

RDU-LHR isn’t all local travelers, so feeding is important. Many people connect on to India on the flight.

Can’t India traffic connect in CDG? IIRC, AA is in T3 at LHR, while most of BA’s operations (including all of their India flights) are in T5, so one has to change terminals at LHR. Not the most convenient.

Yes but Air France/KLM don’t fly to MAA or HYD, which are two of the most popular India destinations.

I think you are overplaying the India connections portion of the equation, the flights to Europe from RDU are first filled with O&D and connections within europe, and second filled with East Asia, Middle East, e.t.c connections. Sure, there are definitely people connecting to India (HYD and MAA) on the LHR flight, especially now that Infosys is planning on growing its presence in RDU, but I don't think it is enough to draw a significant amount of pax away from the CDG flight, after all the two largest Indian markets from RDU are BOM and DEL and both are served from CDG.

Then the question is, is there enough O&D, premium pax, and cargo between RDU and LHR to make it attractive enough to DL without any significant feed on either end?

Midwestindy wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Can’t India traffic connect in CDG? IIRC, AA is in T3 at LHR, while most of BA’s operations (including all of their India flights) are in T5, so one has to change terminals at LHR. Not the most convenient.

Yes but Air France/KLM don’t fly to MAA or HYD, which are two of the most popular India destinations.

I think you are overplaying the India connections portion of the equation, the flights to Europe from RDU are first filled with O&D and connections within europe, and second filled with East Asia, Middle East, e.t.c connections. Sure, there are definitely people connecting to India (HYD and MAA) on the LHR flight, especially now that Infosys is planning on growing its presence in RDU, but I don't think it is enough to draw a significant amount of pax away from the CDG flight, after all the two largest Indian markets from RDU are BOM and DEL and both are served from CDG.

Also, BLR (third largest after BOM and DEL), which is supposedly the tech capital of India, is served from both LHR on BA and CDG on AF.

In fact, I will have some friends heading to BLR starting Saturday. Right now, they have to do BNA-ORD-LHR-BLR, but when BNA-LHR starts in May, it will cut down travel time significantly on future trips.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Then the question is, is there enough O&D, premium pax, and cargo between RDU and LHR to make it attractive enough to DL without any significant feed on either end?

Well, since it would only happen if AA cut the route, the answer would be yes.

ADrum23 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Then the question is, is there enough O&D, premium pax, and cargo between RDU and LHR to make it attractive enough to DL without any significant feed on either end?

Well, since it would only happen if AA cut the route, the answer would be yes.

But AA has one thing DL wouldn't have at LHR, which is BA feed.

So that doesn't really answer my question...

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Then the question is, is there enough O&D, premium pax, and cargo between RDU and LHR to make it attractive enough to DL without any significant feed on either end?

Well, since it would only happen if AA cut the route, the answer would be yes.

But AA has one thing DL wouldn't have at LHR, which is BA feed.

So that doesn't really answer my question...

The point is the O&D, premium pax and cargo you describe would shift to DL if they took it over from AA, so it could make the flight profitable, especially since they’d likely downgauge (or right-size) the aircraft to a 767/757. Those who want the feed onward would simply take the RDU-CDG flight.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

Also, SJC could work if Delta wins a contract with Cisco for business travel (Cisco's second largest presence outside of the Silicon Valley is in Research Triangle Park, and GSK's US operations are based at Research Triangle Park as well).

Cisco has a campus in Richardson, TX, which is located in the Telecom Corridor in the DFW Metroplex, and Southwest serves both SJC and RDU nonstop from DAL. Southwest also will be adding a 2nd nonstop between DAL and SJC starting in April 2018. Southwest could also add nonstop service from SJC to RDU since Southwest will have a focus city at SJC starting in April 2018, since there are also other hi-tech companies that have a presence in both Silicon Valley and the Research Triangle, and since Southwest still has significant market share at RDU, even with the Delta RDU focus city.

Unlike Southwest, who has its home base at DAL and who will have a focus city at SJC starting in April 2018, Delta doesn't have a hub in the San Francisco Bay Area, Delta's west coast hubs are at SEA and LAX, and many of the San Francisco Bay Area customers prefer to fly on airlines other than Delta. On the other hand, Delta can provide Cisco's employees with connecting access to international destinations from SJC through Delta's SEA, LAX, SLC, MSP, ATL, and JFK hubs if Delta can win a business contract with Cisco.

I agree that DL could possibly add nonstop service to SJC from RDU since Silicon Valley and the Research Triangle are major hi-tech hubs, and since DL also has nonstop service to its SEA hub (which is located in another major hi-tech hub) from SJC. On the other hand, there are many Cisco employees in Silicon Valley and the DFW Metroplex who prefer to fly on Southwest over Delta, and in addition to that, there are some Cisco employees in the DFW Metroplex who prefer to fly on AA over Delta or Southwest with AA having its main hub at DFW.

I wonder if AS would try RDU-SJC.

Noise wrote:

I wonder if AS would try RDU-SJC.

Unless AS gets a contract with a specific company you will see SAN or PDX first. Though switching from SFO isn’t outside the realm of possibility.

ADrum23 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

ADrum23 wrote:

Well, since it would only happen if AA cut the route, the answer would be yes.

But AA has one thing DL wouldn't have at LHR, which is BA feed.

So that doesn't really answer my question...

The point is the O&D, premium pax and cargo you describe would shift to DL if they took it over from AA, so it could make the flight profitable, especially since they’d likely downgauge (or right-size) the aircraft to a 767/757. Those who want the feed onward would simply take the RDU-CDG flight.

AA isn’t getting rid of LHR unless someone adds a second flight that can win business travelers over. If any changes are made, it’ll be a downgrade to a 787.

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Noise wrote:

I wonder if AS would try RDU-SJC.

It all depends on how the Virgin SFO-RDU performs.

Noise wrote:

I wonder if AS would try RDU-SJC.

It all depends on how the new Virgin SFO-RDU performs.

rajincajun01 wrote:

jplatts wrote:

Southwest used to have nonstop service from RDU to PHL before dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 5 years ago, but Delta had did add RDU-PHL nonstop service almost 6 months after Southwest discontinued RDU-PHL nonstop service. There were some individuals who did not like Southwest dropping RDU-PHL nonstop service 5 years ago.

Is the demand really there for additional nonstop service to PHL beyond the existing RDU-PHL nonstop service on AA and DL? Will Southwest ever bring back RDU-PHL nonstop service in the future?

Doubtful. AA doesn’t even fill up their PHL. DL’s strategy has been to take local traffic going to AA hubs. That’s why you saw them add MIA and an additional LAX too. DL has been brilliant with the markets they’ve added at RDU.

Wow, this is really surprising, has aa really lost that much ground in rdu?

Delta is at about 31-32% market share at RDU, and that will likely increase with upgrading of AUS and BOS. AA is down to the upper 20s now.

rajincajun01 wrote:

Delta is at about 31-32% market share at RDU, and that will likely increase with upgrading of AUS and BOS. AA is down to the upper 20s now.

I know BOS is upgrading but I had thought the AUS upgrade was postponed. It was supposed to go from a CRJ9 to a 717 but seems to be staying with a CRJ9.

You’re right. Forgot it got postponed when F9 jumped on the route.

Don't understand why People in Raleigh want all these sporadic routes on different carriers. If I was RDU I'd be more focused in building up a network on delta to include connecting opportunities as a reason for a flight to china

CLTflier wrote:

Don't understand why People in Raleigh want all these sporadic routes on different carriers. If I was RDU I'd be more focused in building up a network on delta to include connecting opportunities as a reason for a flight to china

The airport has said they are against any airline building up a hub like structure in RDU...

Midwestindy wrote:

CLTflier wrote:

Don't understand why People in Raleigh want all these sporadic routes on different carriers. If I was RDU I'd be more focused in building up a network on delta to include connecting opportunities as a reason for a flight to china

The airport has said they are against any airline building up a hub like structure in RDU...

RDU has been burned by AA and Midway when they had hubs there.

CLTflier wrote:

Don't understand why People in Raleigh want all these sporadic routes on different carriers. If I was RDU I'd be more focused in building up a network on delta to include connecting opportunities as a reason for a flight to china

DL doesn't even fly to China from JFK, why would it fly to China from RDU?

If anything, DL fortress hubs have shown to have some of the highest fares in the country. Thank goodness NYC has so many other options. I would hate to be in a town where Delta get to command whatever fares they want.

RDU has a lot of real competition from different carriers. Great for the people of the area.

Lenovo is the main push for a China flight because they do not want to connect and they have put together the incentive package for a China flight. I think there is a couple other involved. But they can’t get it immediately because they runway has to be rebuilt.. so I wouldn’t say it’s would happen until the new runway is constructed...

I would rather see abMontreal daily and Caribbean weekly flights...

tphuang wrote:

CLTflier wrote:

Don't understand why People in Raleigh want all these sporadic routes on different carriers. If I was RDU I'd be more focused in building up a network on delta to include connecting opportunities as a reason for a flight to china

DL doesn't even fly to China from JFK, why would it fly to China from RDU?

If anything, DL fortress hubs have shown to have some of the highest fares in the country. Thank goodness NYC has so many other options. I would hate to be in a town where Delta get to command whatever fares they want.

RDU has a lot of real competition from different carriers. Great for the people of the area.

I also agree that RDU is no where near ready for a china flight but other people in the thread do, and I respect their opinion

ERJ170 wrote:

Lenovo is the main push for a China flight because they do not want to connect and they have put together the incentive package for a China flight. I think there is a couple other involved. But they can’t get it immediately because they runway has to be rebuilt.. so I wouldn’t say it’s would happen until the new runway is constructed...

I would rather see abMontreal daily and Caribbean weekly flights...

There are some Chinese airline who could plausibly do 3x weekly flight if they get enough incentive like HU. Realistically speaking though, due to China's anti-corruption movement, very few Lenovo employee would be allowed to fly business class, which would make this kind of routes hard to work without incentives. It certainly would not work for any US airlines.

As I think about it, how close is Terminal 2 to being at capacity? There are only 2 open gates and they are opposite ends of the Terminal... RDUAA says terminal expansion is not in their immediate plans but Terminal 1 is the only terminal with sufficient gate space and no one wants to really join WN. So should terminal expansion be pushed for more aggressively? If DL wants more flights, can they without dropping some? F9? New entrant? Should RDUAA get Charter Express to split their operations to move F9 and Allegiant to T1? Wouldn’t that be a big benefit for Charter Express if they did?

ERJ170 wrote:

As I think about it, how close is Terminal 2 to being at capacity? There are only 2 open gates and they are opposite ends of the Terminal... RDUAA says terminal expansion is not in their immediate plans but Terminal 1 is the only terminal with sufficient gate space and no one wants to really join WN. So should terminal expansion be pushed for more aggressively? If DL wants more flights, can they without dropping some? F9? New entrant? Should RDUAA get Charter Express to split their operations to move F9 and Allegiant to T1? Wouldn’t that be a big benefit for Charter Express if they did?

Do you know how many flights a day Delta has and how many gates they have ? Are they all in D ?
Thanks

ERJ170 wrote:

As I think about it, how close is Terminal 2 to being at capacity? There are only 2 open gates and they are opposite ends of the Terminal... RDUAA says terminal expansion is not in their immediate plans but Terminal 1 is the only terminal with sufficient gate space and no one wants to really join WN. So should terminal expansion be pushed for more aggressively? If DL wants more flights, can they without dropping some? F9? New entrant? Should RDUAA get Charter Express to split their operations to move F9 and Allegiant to T1? Wouldn’t that be a big benefit for Charter Express if they did?

RDUAA will relocate a few carriers to Terminal 1 before they expand Terminal 2.

CLTflier wrote:

I also agree that RDU is no where near ready for a china flight but other people in the thread do, and I respect their opinion

I don't think anybody has said RDU is ready for a China flight. We are talking about it because the airport has stated it's the #1 goal within the next 5-6 years. This is a thread about RDU, no?

I am keeping my fingers crossed for a RDU-SAN flight. Most of my family is from the Raleigh area.
I agree with most people on this thread, I'm putting my money on WN or AS, since SAN is a focus
city for both carriers. I'm leaning towards AS, (AS and WN are slugging it out in SAN)

Midwestindy wrote:

The airport has said they are against any airline building up a hub like structure in RDU...

I remember in the early 80s when RDU used to be a little rinky-dink airport before AA came in and built it up into a hub. It
certainly wasn't called Raleigh/Durham Int'l like it is called now.

SANMAN66 wrote:

I am keeping my fingers crossed for a RDU-SAN flight. Most of my family is from the Raleigh area.
I agree with most people on this thread, I'm putting my money on WN or AS, since SAN is a focus
city for both carriers. I'm leaning towards AS, (AS and WN are slugging it out in SAN)

I agree that WN could add nonstop service from RDU to SAN, especially with WN having a focus city at SAN and since WN also still has significant market share at RDU, even with the DL RDU focus city. In addition, San Diego-based Qualcomm also has a presence in the Research Triangle.

Capn wrote:

Do you know how many flights a day Delta has and how many gates they have ? Are they all in D ?
Thanks

Delta has 11 gates, uses 1 of the international gates, and recently has been using a couple of gates usually used by AA..

Is the demand really there for additional nonstop service to PHL beyond the existing RDU-PHL nonstop service on AA and DL? Will Southwest ever bring back RDU-PHL nonstop service in the future?

rajincajun01 wrote:

ERJ170 wrote:

So, as other threads are doing.. what’s your RDU predictions? As for me...

AC -YUL 1x daily CRJ

AC: I don't think RDU has the PDEW to YUL.

YUL-RDU O&D numbers for 2016 were around 22,060, according to Statistics Canada.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... tern=&csid

That's decent enough to start CRJ service on the route. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens, even if only on a summer seasonal basis.

ERJ170 wrote:

Capn wrote:

Do you know how many flights a day Delta has and how many gates they have ? Are they all in D ?
Thanks

Delta has 11 gates, uses 1 of the international gates, and recently has been using a couple of gates usually used by AA..

They have 77 flights today. Looks like they have plenty of gate space if they are also using aa gates.

crack4mac wrote:

Will Southwest ever bring back RDU-PHL nonstop service in the future?

Doubtful. WN hasn't done much in either RDU or PHL in recent years.

ERJ170 wrote:

As I think about it, how close is Terminal 2 to being at capacity? There are only 2 open gates and they are opposite ends of the Terminal... RDUAA says terminal expansion is not in their immediate plans but Terminal 1 is the only terminal with sufficient gate space and no one wants to really join WN. So should terminal expansion be pushed for more aggressively? If DL wants more flights, can they without dropping some? F9? New entrant? Should RDUAA get Charter Express to split their operations to move F9 and Allegiant to T1? Wouldn’t that be a big benefit for Charter Express if they did?

G4 and F9 don’t have enough flights at RDU to lead to the big benefit you’re talking about. B6 was against T1 in the past, but they may be willing to move now. B6 is also handled by Charter Express below wing.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

rajincajun01 wrote:

ERJ170 wrote:

So, as other threads are doing.. what’s your RDU predictions? As for me...

AC -YUL 1x daily CRJ

AC: I don't think RDU has the PDEW to YUL.

YUL-RDU O&D numbers for 2016 were around 22,060, according to Statistics Canada.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?la ... tern=&csid

That's decent enough to start CRJ service on the route. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens, even if only on a summer seasonal basis.

With those numbers, if AC can make PIT-YUL work...then they might be able to make RDU-YUL work.

http://www.wral.com/rdu-sees-record-bre ... /17283703/


"RDU counted 11.6 million total passengers in 2017, a 5.6 percent increase compared to 2016."

Delta is still the largest carrier at RDU with American in second and Southwest in 3rd.

144 PDEW from RDU-SAN. That should be good enough for a new flight, so I think it’s a matter of who pulls the trigger and finding the right plane that’s available. Do the cities have Pharma links?

I’d start to question Delta’s “Focus City” marketing, if Alaska pulls the tigger first. Southwest would also make sense, but despite their market % at RDU, I don’t think it’s their kind of flight.

ScrantonUSC wrote:

144 PDEW from RDU-SAN. That should be good enough for a new flight, so I think it’s a matter of who pulls the trigger and finding the right plane that’s available. Do the cities have Pharma links?

I’d start to question Delta’s “Focus City” marketing, if Alaska pulls the tigger first. Southwest would also make sense, but despite their market % at RDU, I don’t think it’s their kind of flight.

Eh common now...Focus City doesn't mean "must serve very viable market under the sun".

With the right aircraft and the right timing, I'm sure DL would do it. I am also certain at AS would do the same if they were ready, given their Focus City ops at SAN.