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Nean1
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:56 am

The acquisition would be much simpler, but we know this will not happen. The government will also not give up the Golden Share (ie the veto power for certain issues). The other possibilities are open, but it will require a lot of work from the parties to find a balanced and acceptable formula, which will involve adjustments in various dimensions (shareholding, representative on the board of directors, working capital, production and marketing partnership, technical personnel exchange, use of facilities, ...). My expectation is that we should prepare ourselves to wait a few months until the agreement is released.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:15 am

Revelation wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Nobody is ordering CSeries and MRJ aircraft by the hundreds either. Whether Airbus can change CSeries sales remains to be seen. The market may not be as big as some people believe.

Indeed. A and B have narrowbody backlogs in the many of thousands with nice profit margins on sales and support. Here we see products struggling to have backlogs of a few hundreds and the market split by many different players with all players sacrificing profit to get some market credibility. The acknowledged up-gauging of aircraft sizes works against this market. A had no interest here till BBD had no choice but give them half the program for $1. IMHO Boeing would be best off steering clear. The only "wildcard" is if they truly see some capabilities that EMB has that would strongly advantage the NMA, but it's hard to see what those capabilities could be.


Boeing has always taken Embraer under its wings for some reason.
This could be a defining make or break moment for the relationship between the manufacturers.

What Boeing can do with the Ejet, is keep Airbus honest with the Cseries.
What we will see happen in the coming years, is Airbus ramping up the Cseries production significantly, while positioning it in the 120-160 seat segment, below the A320. Airbus has stronger sales potential, more leverage versus suppliers of systems and components, a better support system. Airbus has the potential to create a market, not solely by ofering a good product in the right way, but also by making the product affordable and reliable.

Embraer will no longer be competing against the Bombardier Cseries, but against the Airbus Cseries.
In a head-to-head competition for an order, there is no way that an airline would choose an Embraer product over an Airbus product.
We've seen this already before. BBD had a better product in the Cseries, but it couldn't win campaigns against neither Airbus nor Boeing.

The Cseries is going to make Airbus the biggest and most complete aircraft manufacturer in the world. The leader in the segment.
Boeing doesn't want to let that happen.
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:02 am

Waterbomber wrote:
What Boeing can do with the Ejet, is keep Airbus honest with the Cseries.
What we will see happen in the coming years, is Airbus ramping up the Cseries production significantly, while positioning it in the 120-160 seat segment, below the A320. Airbus has stronger sales potential, more leverage versus suppliers of systems and components, a better support system. Airbus has the potential to create a market, not solely by ofering a good product in the right way, but also by making the product affordable and reliable.

Embraer will no longer be competing against the Bombardier Cseries, but against the Airbus Cseries.
In a head-to-head competition for an order, there is no way that an airline would choose an Embraer product over an Airbus product.


You did not understand what KarelWXB exposed even less if you looked at the numbers I put in:
- that market is almost 1/5 of the market just above it. It's not just a matter of being an Airbus CSeries ...
 
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kitplane01
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:02 am

Revelation wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Like many aviation lovers I am fascinated by the charisma of the Mitsubishi Zero fighter, with clean lines and unique maneuverability.

Maneuverable because it had no armor and no self sealing fuel tanks. Turns out the design was OK as long as the enemy fought a turning fight. Once they learned to not do that, it was toast, literally.


Grammar police mode = on

What do you think "literally" means? Normally it means "not a figure of speech"", and your last sentence means the Zero was roasted bread..

Grammar police mode = off
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:15 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Grammar police mode = on
What do you think "literally" means? Normally it means "not a figure of speech"", and your last sentence means the Zero was roasted bread..
Grammar police mode = off



Could we back to the topic ???
Thank you very much ...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:20 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
What Boeing can do with the Ejet, is keep Airbus honest with the Cseries.
What we will see happen in the coming years, is Airbus ramping up the Cseries production significantly, while positioning it in the 120-160 seat segment, below the A320. Airbus has stronger sales potential, more leverage versus suppliers of systems and components, a better support system. Airbus has the potential to create a market, not solely by ofering a good product in the right way, but also by making the product affordable and reliable.

Embraer will no longer be competing against the Bombardier Cseries, but against the Airbus Cseries.
In a head-to-head competition for an order, there is no way that an airline would choose an Embraer product over an Airbus product.
We've seen this already before. BBD had a better product in the Cseries, but it couldn't win campaigns against neither Airbus nor Boeing.

The Cseries is going to make Airbus the biggest and most complete aircraft manufacturer in the world. The leader in the segment.
Boeing doesn't want to let that happen.

I don't buy it.

For all those economies of scale to kick in, the market demand is going to need to soar. The vendors only give you the 737/A320 style discounts if you buy in 737/A320 quantities. Who is going to be buying CS on that scale? Especially given the competition it has?

We've talked the US market to death. Scope change ain't coming. DL's put their chips on the table, but they're the only one of the big 3 that has shown it can make money in that market segment. No signs of interest from AA or UA.

China? Nope, they've got their own local champion. Might buy a few to satisfy the political ex-im concerns and get a nice good look at the fit and finish, but that's about it.

EU? Is there airport/airspace capacity to start hosting 120 seaters on the same scale as A320/737?

It will be interesting to see what happens once the papers get signed. We should get a good feel for how hard Airbus pushes the product. Then in another 2 years or so we should see if the Airbus umbrella is enough to "create a market". As above, I'm skeptical.
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 147
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:39 pm

Airbus itself declared they could produce the CSeries 15% cheaper. Most of the savings were from components/ systems costs.

The reason for such savings goes beyond the notion of economy of scale. BBD really got raw deals with its CSeries suppliers. At some point, BBD was stuck in a corner. (One way of escaping some of those unfavorable supplier contracts would be to launch the CS500, switching some suppliers...)

With so high components / systems costs, and the predatory pricings from the duopoly, it's surprising the CSeries survived that long.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:09 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Airbus itself declared they could produce the CSeries 15% cheaper. Most of the savings were from components/ systems costs.

15% is significant for sure but not sure if it drags the product from a ruinous proposition to a "create a market" proposition, again in the face of much competition.
The gun is NOT a precious symbol of freedom
It is a deadly cancer on American society
Those who believe otherwise are consumed by an ideology
That is impervious to evidence
 
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EMBSPBR
Posts: 152
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Airbus itself declared they could produce the CSeries 15% cheaper. Most of the savings were from components/ systems costs.

15% is significant for sure but not sure if it drags the product from a ruinous proposition to a "create a market" proposition, again in the face of much competition.


True.
His/hers comment is the traditional "let´s push the best plane in the world" ...
 
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YuriMG2
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:52 pm

Boeing had a meeting yesterday with Brazil Misnitry of Defense and people from the Military Forces.

The Ministry said the Control of Embraer wouldnt even be in the table for negotiation. But that are ok with collaboration between the 2 companies.

It also says that Brazilian Air Force and Saab are really unhappy with the Boeing, specially the Swedens because they fear that boeing would later interfere with the F-X program, which Brazil could later manufactor and sell the Gripen. They say Boeing would shut the program down after the 36 Gripens goes to Brazil, so they wouldnt have to ''help'' a competitor of the F18.

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/20 ... eing.shtml?
Last edited by YuriMG2 on Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 147
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:53 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
True. (Airbus 15% savings in producing CSeries)
His/hers comment is the traditional "let´s push the best plane in the world" ...

Didn't realize my comment give that impression. Obviously did not mean nor believe in such notion.

The old BBD management (before Alain Bellemare) probably had that mentality thought, as they didn't offer very attractive launch prices (hey! it's the best plane in the world, they'll buy it eventually)...
 
Waterbomber
Posts: 411
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:30 am

Revelation wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
What Boeing can do with the Ejet, is keep Airbus honest with the Cseries.
What we will see happen in the coming years, is Airbus ramping up the Cseries production significantly, while positioning it in the 120-160 seat segment, below the A320. Airbus has stronger sales potential, more leverage versus suppliers of systems and components, a better support system. Airbus has the potential to create a market, not solely by ofering a good product in the right way, but also by making the product affordable and reliable.

Embraer will no longer be competing against the Bombardier Cseries, but against the Airbus Cseries.
In a head-to-head competition for an order, there is no way that an airline would choose an Embraer product over an Airbus product.
We've seen this already before. BBD had a better product in the Cseries, but it couldn't win campaigns against neither Airbus nor Boeing.

The Cseries is going to make Airbus the biggest and most complete aircraft manufacturer in the world. The leader in the segment.
Boeing doesn't want to let that happen.

I don't buy it.

For all those economies of scale to kick in, the market demand is going to need to soar. The vendors only give you the 737/A320 style discounts if you buy in 737/A320 quantities. Who is going to be buying CS on that scale? Especially given the competition it has?

We've talked the US market to death. Scope change ain't coming. DL's put their chips on the table, but they're the only one of the big 3 that has shown it can make money in that market segment. No signs of interest from AA or UA.

China? Nope, they've got their own local champion. Might buy a few to satisfy the political ex-im concerns and get a nice good look at the fit and finish, but that's about it.

EU? Is there airport/airspace capacity to start hosting 120 seaters on the same scale as A320/737?

It will be interesting to see what happens once the papers get signed. We should get a good feel for how hard Airbus pushes the product. Then in another 2 years or so we should see if the Airbus umbrella is enough to "create a market". As above, I'm skeptical.



I think that Airbus will push for the Cseries a lot.
1. They have a majority stake as it is, with an option to purchase the entire program further down the line in 2025.
2. Airbus doesn't have anything else to sell in the narrowbody market as it has oversold its A320 production. There is a backlog of over 5000 units versus a delivery rate of 500 per year currently, which may go up to 2 units a day by 2019. That's still 8 years worth of production on the books, without counting the options.
3. Many airlines haven't secured their A320/B737NG replacements yet. This forum talked about AF-KLM, but there are many others that haven't been discussed.

I think that Airbus will aim to push narrowbody output to 1000 units a year between the A320 and Cseries combined.
With 2 assembly lines for the Cseries and enough funds to launch production, this can be done relatively easily within 3-4 years.

Another market that can't be ignored is the E190/E195 replacement market.
That market alone is worth over 200 units and I doubt that Embraer will get an "encore" from many airlines even with the E2. In the 5 years since launch, only Azul and Tianjin have given a total commitment of 50 units. As for ILFC, which now is part of Aercap, I doubt that they'll go through with their entire order. In the 5 years since ordering, they were only able to place 10 units between Borajet and Air Astana and they have a commitment for 65 more. That's a long way to go and they're running out of time.
With the Cseries now being an Airbus product, I doubt that they'll be able to place many more.

On the E175-E2 front, the MRJ, the SSJ100 are now part of the market, with the MRJ as the leading product.

Embraer management are probably more desperate for this deal than Boeing.
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:31 am

Would Boeing ever consider one more stretch of the E2 platform greater than the 195 (132 @ 31" pitch) to yield 148-150pax @ 31" pitch? A short range 737-7Max/737-700/A319/A320 replacement..... 3 flight attendants, 150 pax, 2000nmi range?
learning never stops.
 
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LockheedBBD
Posts: 278
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:39 am

Waterbomber wrote:
On the E175-E2 front, the MRJ, the SSJ100 are now part of the market, with the MRJ as the leading product.

Embraer management are probably more desperate for this deal than Boeing.


Besides Japan, I don't think Embraer needs to worry about the MRJ. The E-Jet family is an established product line with an established support network. Mitsubishi has none of those advantages.
 
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LockheedBBD
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:06 am

Update:

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-embr ... SKBN1F72XB

"Boeing willing to preserve Brazil's 'golden share' in Embraer deal"
Boeing Co (BA.N) is working to overcome the Brazilian military’s objections to its proposed tie-up with Embraer SA (EMBR3.SA) with alternatives that would preserve the government’s strategic veto rights and ensure safeguards for its defense programs, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The U.S. planemaker was forced back to the drawing board after Brazilian officials balked last week at the idea of turning Embraer into a subsidiary such as those that Boeing operates in Australia and Britain, according to the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss the negotiations freely.

Boeing’s plan has snagged on concerns in Brasilia that Washington would get final say over Brazilian defense programs and use of technology developed in the country, including satellite and air-traffic control systems.

The Brazilian government holds a ‘golden share’ in Embraer giving it veto power over strategic decisions involving military programs and any change in its controlling interest. Boeing would be willing to preserve the government’s golden share in Embraer, the people familiar with the matter said, but that may not be enough to win support.

“The Air Force is the main source of resistance,” said an aide to President Michel Temer. “The military oppose any split up of Embraer.” The aide said Jungmann has not yet made a recommendation on the Boeing deal to the president. In an emailed comment, the Air Force said it “considers Embraer a strategic company that is fundamental for our national sovereignty, so a possible partnership with Boeing should also be studied from this point of view.”

With a presidential election looming in Brazil this year and airlines delaying orders until the shape of the industry is clear, all sides of the negotiations are eager for a resolution. Still, government officials are keen on pressing their hand.

“We think Boeing will end up agreeing to a partnership or a joint venture because they have been weakened by the Airbus-Bombardier deal,” said the official familiar with the talks. “They have no other possible partner and need a quick fix.”
 
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YuriMG2
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:53 am

"Boeing willing..."

Lol

Like they have any other choice.
 
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william
Posts: 2292
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:36 am

Interesting turn of developments, this isn't about present aircraft. I want to know what grand scheme Boeing has in mind project wise with Embraer.
 
LPSHobby
Posts: 345
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 9:14 pm

Boeing is offerings US$ 6 billion for EMBRAER

Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:41 am

acording Reuters Boeing is offering up to US$ 6 billion to buy EMBRAER

source, in portuguese: http://www.aereo.jor.br/2018/01/19/boei ... z-reuters/
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:00 pm

Lol, $6 billion? That must be the equivalent of lunch money, no?
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:10 pm

$6 billion doesn’t sound like a lot but remember we are talking about a company with a current market cap of ~$4.7 billion. They also only bring in about $6 billion in revenue a year (for comparison, BBD aerospace brings in about $11 billion in revenue). Don’t over estimate the size of Embraer and how cheap Brazil can be...the E-jet program only cost them what, around $1 billion to develop, and the E2 about $2 billion?
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:35 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Lol, $6 billion? That must be the equivalent of lunch money, no?


Polot wrote:
$6 billion doesn’t sound like a lot but remember we are talking about a company with a current market cap of ~$4.7 billion. They also only bring in about $6 billion in revenue a year (for comparison, BBD aerospace brings in about $11 billion in revenue). Don’t over estimate the size of Embraer and how cheap Brazil can be...the E-jet program only cost them what, around $1 billion to develop, and the E2 about $2 billion?


Hint (a simple way):
"The book value of a company, also known as a book value, is the sum of all its assets - such as buildings, machinery, equipment, money and products in stock -, net of debts and financial obligations."


Or more complex:

Market value:
The definition of market value translates the value by which a company could be traded in the market that is competitive and open to a fair exchange between seller and buyer, both being knowledgeable of the business, prudent and without urgency in doing business, although interested and with alternatives.

Internal factors are involved in the company, such as the quality of its human resources, products and corporate image, as well as external factors such as competition, sector regulation and general economic trends.

Intrinsic value or yield:
The intrinsic value or income represents an opinion of value produced by an appraiser, based on the perception of the characteristics inherent to the investment, through the expected value method, cash flows updated or supernormal profits.

It does not take into account the existence of a specific investor and when it collects the opinion of all the investors, the intrinsic value turns into market value.

Fundamental value:
The fundamental value is a capital market perspective on the assumption that the intrinsic value of an action can be determined by rigorously assessing some key variables such as profit, dividends, financial structure, market outlook or quality of management, among others. It does not imply the existence of a specific investor / buyer.

The fundamental value is used for comparison with quotation prices and consequent decision making:

If the quotation is above the fundamental value, the decision is to recommend the sale.
If the quotation is below the fundamental value, the decision is to recommend the purchase.
In essence, intrinsic value and fundamental value have the same meaning.

Value for the investor:
The valuation of value to the investor is made taking into account in its calculations factors that differ from those used in the intrinsic value, since it considers specific variables that concern that particular investor. For example, Sumolis' recent acquisition of Compal was certainly in sync with the synergies this acquisition would generate in terms of enriching its portfolio, enabling it to increase the critical mass of its business. It would then be in a position to attribute greater value to this business than for example a financial institution such as CGD, former majority shareholder.

Residual value:
The analyzes of the fundamental value and the intrinsic value consist of two periods of life of the company:

The annual forecast period
The residual period
In the first period, the company's activity is projected annually to determine annual profits, dividends and cash flows. The residual value refers to the value of the company at the end of the explicit forecast period.

The residual period refers to the value of the company at the end of the forecast period

Fair value:
The notion of fair value is ambiguous and of different uses, and therefore the International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC) designates that "the price, expressed in cash or equivalent, that a property changes from owner to owner hypothetical and interested buyer and a hypothetical and interested seller, in an open and unrestricted market, without any being forced to buy or sell, and in which both are reasonably aware of the relevant facts. " If we understand ownership as the company, we arrive at its fair value.

The IASB recently issued IFRS 13, which regulates the calculation of fair value internationally, with CPC 46 as the Brazilian counterpart. This includes the definition of fair value as "the price that would be received for the sale of an asset or that would be paid for the transfer of a liability in an uncommitted transaction between market participants at the measurement date. "

Perceived Value (by the client):
Perceived Value is the utility given to a given product or service based on the customer's perception, not the company's position in the market. It underpins the concept of embedded benefits versus its cost of acquisition. For a given product or service to enjoy a perceived value by the customer will mean that the customer recognizes a benefit in the offer of the company compared to the benefits offered by the competition.

(Offer value - Offer price = Offer benefits)> (Alternative value - Alternative price = Benefits of Alternative)
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:37 pm

If Boeing only considers what are the advantages for Boeing, maybe there won't be a deal at all. Public interest are strong in Brasil, maybe stronger than short term capitalism.

Image

https://www1.salary.com/BOEING-CO-Executive-Salaries.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Nean1
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:06 pm

There is no news in labor syndicate protests. Twenty years ago, the same syndicate also opposed the privatization of Embraer.

I understant there is no chance of a simple company take-over. I believe Boeing will negotiate some veto power in exchange for equity interest or long term loans. The management of Embraer is very sensitive to its decision freedom and the examples of Boeing (De Havilland) and Airbus (ATR) are not very encouraging.

With all due respect to the good work of Boeing and Airbus, if Embraer were to be managed as one of them probably the company would have already failed. Embraer operates in markets where it is necessary to be much more agile and lean.

That is to say, I see as a somewhat complicated relationship with many important issues that must be discussed in advance so that no one regrets afterwards. On the other hand the potential gains for both sides are very large, so it's worth the effort.

Finally I understand that a more flexible and intelligent model of partner will at some point also interest Saab. A Boeing-Embraer-Saab association would have incredible potential.
 
brindabella
Posts: 256
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:23 pm

Nean1 wrote:
There is no news in labor syndicate protests. Twenty years ago, the same syndicate also opposed the privatization of Embraer.

I understant there is no chance of a simple company take-over. I believe Boeing will negotiate some veto power in exchange for equity interest or long term loans. The management of Embraer is very sensitive to its decision freedom and the examples of Boeing (De Havilland) and Airbus (ATR) are not very encouraging.

With all due respect to the good work of Boeing and Airbus, if Embraer were to be managed as one of them probably the company would have already failed. Embraer operates in markets where it is necessary to be much more agile and lean.

That is to say, I see as a somewhat complicated relationship with many important issues that must be discussed in advance so that no one regrets afterwards. On the other hand the potential gains for both sides are very large, so it's worth the effort.

Finally I understand that a more flexible and intelligent model of partner will at some point also interest Saab. A Boeing-Embraer-Saab association would have incredible potential.


OK, some real opinions/projections please!

For instance, I have idly wondered how a JV project to - say - directly compete with the CS100/300/500 might go.

The wing from Seattle, everything else from EMB's factories? Or the reverse?

Dual factories, one in Brazil, one in US?

What do you think?

cheers Bill
Billy
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:06 pm

brindabella wrote:
OK, some real opinions/projections please!
What do you think?
cheers Bill


Partnership in the New Single Aisle project.

This is what Boeing is looking for with Embraer: ahead of time, on budget, better than target on specifications.

Source: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... 47f305203d

Excerpts:

"The flight-test campaign, which is concluding several months ahead of the company’s original, conservative mid-2018 completion target, has confirmed improvements in fuel burn, range, emissions and noise that exceed the program’s baseline targets. Fuel burn is reported as 17.3% lower than for the first-generation E190, compared to the 16% improvement predicted at the start of development."

"Rodrigo Silva e Souza, Embraer Commercial Aviation’s vice president of marketing, said the relatively trouble-free E190-E2 development—which is ahead of schedule, on budget and on weight target—can be attributed largely to the high cadence of new aircraft testing and certification efforts at Embraer, including those for the improved E175, the other E2 models, the Legacy and Phenom business aircraft, and the KC-390 tanker/transport. “I don’t remember any other program of this magnitude which achieved all these goals,” he observed."
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