Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer

flyguy84 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:13 pm

Interesting development... it seems they feel this is a necessary move after the Airbus/Bombardier deal. Will it pay off? Who knows... but it would get them into the regional jet market. Seems as tho this would be very tough to get regulatory approval from the Brazilian Government.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-hel ... 1513874742

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JJ777 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:26 pm

Embraer stock skyrocketed after this piece of news came up. The Brazilian government has golden shares on Embraer, giving the government veto power over a potential takeover. However, I'd think they'd be tempted to allow the takeover to go through as they need to balance the federal budget ASAP.

Amiga500 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:28 pm

Looks like tacit admission that they got it extremely wrong in not taking on the CSeries.

rotating14 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:33 pm

Here's the issue: Boeing needs Embraer more than Embraer needs Boeing. Airbus took its position with Bombardier because it didn't have the tools and/or resources to market its aircraft portfolio. Embraer does not have that problem.

flyingclrs727 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:33 pm

Boeing needs a 100-160 seat narrow body that can compete with the Bombardier/Airbus C-Series. I wish Southwest would sign up as a launch customer. Their fleet no longer has anything with the passenger count of a 737-200. For years that was the only plane they had in their fleet. Now the smallest planes in their fleet is 143 seats and the smallest planes they have on order have 150 seats. There are lots of smaller markets that can't sustain service with the size of Southwest's planes. I rarely get to fly out of my home airport of CRP on WN, because most of their destinations are not available or their prices are generally higher (but not all) than flying from SAT, AUS, or HOU. Having smaller planes to allow frequencies out of smaller market airports would allow better service.

Polot · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:36 pm

rotating14 wrote:
Here's the issue: Boeing needs Embraer more than Embraer needs Boeing. Airbus took its position with Bombardier because it didn't have the tools and/or resources to market its aircraft portfolio. Embraer does not have that problem.

Except now Embraer has to compete against Airbus's might when pushing the E2 family against the C Series in RFPs. That might make a partnership with Boeing very attractive.

On the military side it might give the KC-390 a boost too depending on things between Boeing and the Brazilian government are structured.

stburke · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:44 pm

The duopoly gets bigger...

This would be a loss for airlines...and Brazil. The military implications would be interesting, however.

RobertPhoenix · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:49 pm

One thing the WSJ article doesn't mention, is when did Boeing start these talks. Is this a direct response to Airbus and Bombardier ? Bombardier and Airbus had talks which fell through some time before the actual deal was done. Has Boeing had similar talks in the past with Embraer ? Did the Airbus deal simply put them into higher gear ?

SJPBR · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:52 pm

JJ777 wrote:
Embraer stock skyrocketed after this piece of news came up. The Brazilian government has golden shares on Embraer, giving the government veto power over a potential takeover. However, I'd think they'd be tempted to allow the takeover to go through as they need to balance the federal budget ASAP.

it will not affect the federal balance as the Braz Gov only have 1 golden share.

United787 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:53 pm

Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

Busyboy2 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:54 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Boeing needs a 100-160 seat narrow body that can compete with the Bombardier/Airbus C-Series. I wish Southwest would sign up as a launch customer. Their fleet no longer has anything with the passenger count of a 737-200. For years that was the only plane they had in their fleet. Now the smallest planes in their fleet is 143 seats and the smallest planes they have on order have 150 seats. There are lots of smaller markets that can't sustain service with the size of Southwest's planes. I rarely get to fly out of my home airport of CRP on WN, because most of their destinations are not available or their prices are generally higher (but not all) than flying from SAT, AUS, or HOU. Having smaller planes to allow frequencies out of smaller market airports would allow better service.

let me make this easy for you. Its not going to happen at Southwest Airlines.

wjcandee · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:55 pm

Boeing is likely to lose in the court that actually determines the amount of the tariffs, which the Commerce Department actually does not. Bombi's argument is that Boeing has no competitive product, so no harm no foul.

I have to wonder whether the EMB move would be to give Boeing a competitive product, in order to support the tariffs. If they race to get the deal done before early January, we will know the answer.

Aptivaboy · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:58 pm

Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

As a Boeing stockholder, I feel the same. Competition pushes every manufacturer to improve. The fewer the number of plane makers, the less the innovation. I"d much rather see Boeing develop it's own regional jets instead of growing through acquisitions, potentially.

bigjku · Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:58 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Looks like tacit admission that they got it extremely wrong in not taking on the CSeries.

Ehh, there are differences here that would make buying Embraer the company attractive in ways buying the C-Series isn’t. Would have to see how it plays out though.

WaywardMemphian · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:02 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Boeing needs a 100-160 seat narrow body that can compete with the Bombardier/Airbus C-Series. I wish Southwest would sign up as a launch customer. Their fleet no longer has anything with the passenger count of a 737-200. For years that was the only plane they had in their fleet. Now the smallest planes in their fleet is 143 seats and the smallest planes they have on order have 150 seats. There are lots of smaller markets that can't sustain service with the size of Southwest's planes. I rarely get to fly out of my home airport of CRP on WN, because most of their destinations are not available or their prices are generally higher (but not all) than flying from SAT, AUS, or HOU. Having smaller planes to allow frequencies out of smaller market airports would allow better service.

Would be a great plane for MEM, TUL, LIT, and new
growing markets like XNA. Same goes for the C Series

danj555 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:03 pm

RobertPhoenix wrote:
One thing the WSJ article doesn't mention, is when did Boeing start these talks. Is this a direct response to Airbus and Bombardier ? Bombardier and Airbus had talks which fell through some time before the actual deal was done. Has Boeing had similar talks in the past with Embraer ? Did the Airbus deal simply put them into higher gear ?

I feel like these all are important questions ^^^^

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:04 pm

I think it would make sense to replace the 737 with a slightly bigger model and have embraer simultaneously develop a mini-737 to compete with the CSeries. Design commonalities like the cockpit could offer synergies between both models, if not outright sharing one type rating. If the 757 and 767 can do it, then you can probably do it on the 737/mini737 side as well.

Not sure an outright purchase is necessary or likely to happen, though.

WaywardMemphian · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:05 pm

danj555 wrote:
RobertPhoenix wrote:
One thing the WSJ article doesn't mention, is when did Boeing start these talks. Is this a direct response to Airbus and Bombardier ? Bombardier and Airbus had talks which fell through some time before the actual deal was done. Has Boeing had similar talks in the past with Embraer ? Did the Airbus deal simply put them into higher gear ?

I feel like these all are important questions ^^^^

Also could explain why Boeing wanted to squash The C-Series if talks were started before the trade case.

The sad part, the C-Series would have much cheaper and is already in the air.

fcogafa · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:07 pm

Embraer are building the Phenom/Legacy types at Melbourne, FLA so expanding that facility would be a possibility.

CX747 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:10 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Looks like tacit admission that they got it extremely wrong in not taking on the CSeries.

Very different companies in different positions. Let's see how it pans out.

william · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:13 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Looks like tacit admission that they got it extremely wrong in not taking on the CSeries.

What many forget Boeing passed on the CS deal that was offered to Airbus. The Embraer product as it stands sells pretty good on its on and doesn't need "marketing help" (because the world airlines are clueless that BBD has this CS product). I do agree this is a defensive move, to allow Boieng to compete on in the lower segments. What Embraer gets out of this I do no know.

SheikhDjibouti · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:15 pm

wjcandee wrote:
I have to wonder whether the EMB move would be to give Boeing a competitive product, in order to support the tariffs. If they race to get the deal done before early January, we will know the answer.

Er, no.
Unless you want to consider a world where you can be prosecuted tomorrow, for a speed limit only brought in today, for a driving "offence" you committed last week.

Ex post facto laws are expressly forbidden by the United States Constitution.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_post_facto_law

Planesmart · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:17 pm

Boeing and Airbus were each in negotiation (which both knew) with Bombardier to establish a joint venture and/or acquire a minority interest or even majority share. When these stalled, they opted to 'spoil', at which point a deal was quickly finalised with Airbus.

Embraer, Boeing needs you. Hold out for a good deal, and include documented relationship rules with financial penalties and arbitration.

Embraer is out of bounds to Airbus in terms of possible market domination, but could there be another way?

pitbosflyer · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:17 pm

If this happens it almost guarantees B6 won't buy the 190 E2. Why would they want a Boeing plane when they can go all Airbus with the C series.

edu2703 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:26 pm

I really doubt the negotiations will go ahead. The grounds are already mentioned in the WSJ article.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it's far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there is even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there will be no deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

In order to help understand the government, Boeing is willing to take steps to protect Embraer's brand, management and jobs, one of the people said. It is also willing to structure a deal in a way that would protect the government's interest in Embraer's defense business.

KarelXWB · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:31 pm

The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

pitbosflyer · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:40 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

I have a feeling if this actually happened...we will see more of a very close joint venture. Rather than a full takeover. The Brazilian government is normally very hesitant to approve anything like this.

aerolimani · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:42 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Boeing needs a 100-160 seat narrow body that can compete with the Bombardier/Airbus C-Series.

Nah. Boeing has its legal department for that job.

JetBuddy · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:50 pm

United787 wrote:
Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

I agree 100%. But it's difficult for the little guys to grow with dirty players like Boeing.

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:50 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

I have a feeling if this actually happened...we will see more of a very close joint venture. Rather than a full takeover. The Brazilian government is normally very hesitant to approve anything like this.

This is correct. I do think a deal should happen though.....Brazil needs to realize that what Canada has done is peanuts compared to the ruthlessness China will have in subsidizing their future products in this market.

edu2703 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:50 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

As Embraer actively cooperates with Brazilian Air Force, there may be constitutional obstacles to negotiations.

The approval of the takeover can be submitted to Brazilian parliament and, knowing the Brazilian parliament, no chance of this being approved.

In addition, Boeing should complete negotiations by the end of 2018. 2019, Brazil will have a new president and the two candidates leading the polls are nationalists. One more obstacle to negotiations.

Polot · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:50 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
If this happens it almost guarantees B6 won't buy the 190 E2. Why would they want a Boeing plane when they can go all Airbus with the C series.

Because the C Series has about as much in common with their Airbuses as the E190 E2 (which, incidentally, has a lot in common with their existing E190s) does. Painting Airbus's name next to BBD's on the fuselage doesn't change that.

I'm not saying JetBlue is a lock for the E190 E2, but the notion that B6 would reject a plane just because there is Boeing involvement in it is incredibly ridiculous.

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:54 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
United787 wrote:
Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

I agree 100%. But it's difficult for the little guys to grow with dirty players like Boeing.

Boeing is playing dirty because Canada/Bombardier are playing dirty. Embraer will tell you the same. Don’t lose sight of the problem over some little guy narrative that’s actually quite misleading.

Johnv707 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:55 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
United787 wrote:
Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

I agree 100%. But it's difficult for the little guys to grow with dirty players like Boeing.

And Airbus hasn't played dirty ?????

pitbosflyer · Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:55 pm

Polot wrote:
I'm not saying JetBlue is a lock for the E190 E2, but the notion that B6 would reject a plane just because there is Boeing involvement in it is incredibly ridiculous.

That's true. I guess the commonality with their current 190's can't be ignored. That being a lot of them are leased...and will go going away when their lease is up.

zkojq · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:01 pm

rotating14 wrote:
Airbus took its position with Bombardier because it didn't have the tools and/or resources to market its aircraft portfolio. Embraer does not have that problem.

Last time I checked, the Embraer E2 didn't have a particularly healthy orderbook.

airzona11 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:01 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
United787 wrote:
Even as a proud American and Chicagoan, I wish Bombardier and Embraer would remain Canadian and Brazilian. I think the global aviation market can support and benefits from having more than just Airbus & Boeing...

I agree 100%. But it's difficult for the little guys to grow with dirty players like Boeing.

I guess I am curious what Boeing (or Airbus) should do?

It would be awesome to have Lockheed, Boeing, Douglass, Airbus, Bbd, Embrarer, Sud, British Aerospace, Bristol, etc etc, but the economics of air travel and the high cost of capital equipment (planes) have led to consolidation. Russia and China still can't crack the market. Airbus by its very existence foretold the end game in the commercial aviation sector. Massive consortiums aka corporations.

The airlines get larger and larger, the economies of scale are necessary (or so we are told) for survival. Fewer customers for the manufacturers to sell to. Fewer airlines to buy.

I think there needs to be innovation and tech advancement in the sub 50 or sub 30 seat space to "decentralize" commercial air travel.

SJPBR · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:02 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

Embraer is not owened by the Brazilian gov. The gov has only one golden share to make strategic decisions.

DfwRevolution · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:06 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Looks like tacit admission that they got it extremely wrong in not taking on the CSeries.

Not necessarily. There are plenty of reasons why Embraer could be a strategic fit for Boeing while Bombardier and the C-Series were not. Embraer has a better balance sheet. Embraer products are more complementary and overlap with fewer Boeing products. The Brazilian Real has been falling against the USD than the Canadian dollar, meaning Embraer's acquisition cost would fall. Embraer would get Boeing into some customers where it has traditionally been unsuccessful.

It doesn't follow that because Airbus picked-up parts of Bombardier that Boeing needs to rush-off and do the same.

KarelXWB wrote:
The talks are on hold as the parties await word from the Brazilian government on whether it would sign off on the combination. The government has a so-called golden share in Embraer that gives it veto powers over such a transaction.

Embraer is a crown-jewel of Brazilian industry, and it’s far from guaranteed the government would sign off; therefore there’s an even higher probability than in a typical merger negotiation that there won’t be any deal. Indeed, some of the people cautioned it is unlikely the talks will be revived.

Would the Brazilian government really sell its crown-jewel?

Well they've been selling of Petrobras assets like crazy and that was formerly the crown-jewel.

Jerry123 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:07 pm

PPVRA wrote:
I think it would make sense to replace the 737 with a slightly bigger model and have embraer simultaneously develop a mini-737 to compete with the CSeries. Design commonalities like the cockpit could offer synergies between both models, if not outright sharing one type rating. If the 757 and 767 can do it, then you can probably do it on the 737/mini737 side as well.

Not sure an outright purchase is necessary or likely to happen, though.

Why would Embraer develop a mini 737 when they already have a proven product with their E jets?

United787 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:10 pm

If Boeing wants to get into the RJ market, they should go after the MRJ:

1) The program is struggling and could use Boeing's help getting them across the finish line.
2) Boeing would probably be able to get a deal, much better than they would with Embraer.
3) They already have a strong relationship with Mitsubishi who is a major supplier for the 787 (wings).

mikejepp · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:12 pm

So how long until Boeing starts building 787s in Brazil?

pitbosflyer · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:16 pm

United787 wrote:
If Boeing wants to get into the RJ market, they should go after the MRJ:

1) The program is struggling and could use Boeing's help getting them across the finish line.
2) Boeing would probably be able to get a deal, much better than they would with Embraer.
3) They already have a strong relationship with Mitsubishi who is a major supplier for the 787 (wings).

I was thinking a similar thing recently. Boeing would be better off making a deal with a Japanese company.

patineta89 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:18 pm

Not surprising news... I guess Boeing had no alternative after their terrible handling of the supposed BBD threat.
If this goes ahead, 2 things will probably happen:
1 - Mitsubishi RJ program gets it's final burial seal
2 - A mega joint venture between Russian and Chinese manufacturers gets much closer to reality

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:23 pm

United787 wrote:
If Boeing wants to get into the RJ market, they should go after the MRJ:

1) The program is struggling and could use Boeing's help getting them across the finish line.
2) Boeing would probably be able to get a deal, much better than they would with Embraer.
3) They already have a strong relationship with Mitsubishi who is a major supplier for the 787 (wings).

Why? They barely know what they’re doing. The MRJ has been quite the experiment for them.

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:25 pm

mikejepp wrote:
So how long until Boeing starts building 787s in Brazil?

Brazil doesn’t have the infrastructure to handle something like that IMO. Labor peace is also more fleeting than in Washington State.

edu2703 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:26 pm

Brazilian President Michel Temer gives ''green light'' for negotiations, but says "In my government, Embraer will never be sold".

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/20 ... raer.shtml

PPVRA · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:30 pm

Jerry123 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
I think it would make sense to replace the 737 with a slightly bigger model and have embraer simultaneously develop a mini-737 to compete with the CSeries. Design commonalities like the cockpit could offer synergies between both models, if not outright sharing one type rating. If the 757 and 767 can do it, then you can probably do it on the 737/mini737 side as well.

Not sure an outright purchase is necessary or likely to happen, though.

Why would Embraer develop a mini 737 when they already have a proven product with their E jets?

Bigger than the Ejets. 140-170 seats, but with ~2000nm range.

dtw2hyd · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:30 pm

How difficult is to make 717 current.

Jerry123 · Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:31 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Jerry123 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
I think it would make sense to replace the 737 with a slightly bigger model and have embraer simultaneously develop a mini-737 to compete with the CSeries. Design commonalities like the cockpit could offer synergies between both models, if not outright sharing one type rating. If the 757 and 767 can do it, then you can probably do it on the 737/mini737 side as well.

Not sure an outright purchase is necessary or likely to happen, though.

Why would Embraer develop a mini 737 when they already have a proven product with their E jets?

Bigger than the Ejets. 140-170 seats, but with ~2000nm range.

Boeing themselves would say the MAX 7 would cover that market.

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