FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M FLL-FPO APR 4>3 JUL 4>3

4B LAX-MCE JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3
4B MCE-OAK JAN 0>1.9 FEB 0>1.9

4W MLY-RMP JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.7 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7

7H AKN-ANC MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7
7H AKN-DLG MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
7H ANC-DLG MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7

7Q CLD-LAS JAN 0.5>2 FEB 0>2 MAR 0>2

9K ACK-HYA JAN 10>9 FEB 10>9 MAR 10>9 APR 10>8

*AA DCA-ILM MAY 0.3>1.1 JUN 0.3>1.3 JUL 0.3>1.3 AUG 0.3>1.3
AA DCA-RSW MAY 1.1>0.5
*AA DFW-MSO JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
AA DFW-YVR JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3
*AA MIA-BON JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
*AA MIA-SAV JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA ORD-BTV JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
Interesting to see AA atempt to grow post-WN
AA ORD-FNT MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
*AA ORD-ILM JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA ORD-MSO JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA ORD-PWM JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
*AA ORD-SAV JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
This seems like a big deal...or just slot-sitting? Is this bad for JFK int'l or bad for PHL int'l? Probably the latter...
*AA PHL-JFK APR 0>6 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6 JUL 0>6 AUG 0>6

AC BOS-YUL MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
AC BWI-YYZ MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AC DEN-YUL JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC DEN-YVR JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AC IAD-YUL MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC IAH-YYC MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
AC IAH-YYZ MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AC MCO-YUL JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AC MEM-YYZ MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC SAN-YVR MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

AM DTW-MEX FEB 0.9>0.7 MAR 0.8>0.7 APR 1.0>0.7 MAY 1.0>0.7

AS pulls Q400s out of FAI
*AS ANC-FAI MAR 8>7 APR 8>7 MAY 8>7 JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>7
AS ANC-ORD MAR 0.7>0.4 APR 1.0>0.7
AS BOS-SFO JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AS BWI-CUN APR 0>0.1
AS DEN-SFO APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
AS FLL-LAX APR 0.5>0.4
AS LAX-PVR APR 1.4>1.3
Pulling back against DL a little more
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.4>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0
AS ORD-PVR APR 0>0.1
AS PDX-BZN JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS PDX-DFW MAY 1.4>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0
AS PDX-FCA APR 0>0.9
AS PDX-ORD MAR 1.6>0.9 APR 1.8>1.0
AS PDX-PSP MAY 1.6>1.2
AS PDX-SJC APR 5>4
AS PDX-STS JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.8
AS SAN-SLC MAY 1.6>1.0
AS SEA-GEG MAR 15>14 MAY 15>14
AS SEA-LAS MAR 9>8 APR 11>8 MAY 11>9
Wow, merger capacity cut?
*AS SEA-LAX MAR 13>9 APR 15>10 MAY 19>15
AS SEA-PDX MAR 25>23 APR 26>24 MAY 26>25
AS SEA-PHX MAY 7>6
Also wow?
*AS SEA-SFO MAR 8>4 APR 10>6
AS SEA-STS APR 0>1.0
AS SEA-YEG APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
AS SEA-YVR JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
AS SEA-YYC MAR 3>2.0
AS SEA-YYJ MAR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3

AT JFK-CMN MAR 1.2>1.3

AV JFK-SAP JAN 0.3>0.1 FEB 0.3>0 MAR 0.3>0
AV ORD-SAL FEB 0.7>0.6 MAR 0.7>0.5

AX PIT-RDU JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

B0 EWR-CDG FEB 1.5>1.4
B6 BOS-STI FEB 0.9>1.0
B6 BOS-STT FEB 0.7>0
B6 FLL-SJU FEB 4>5
*B6 JFK-ORH MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
B6 JFK-SJU FEB 4>5
B6 MCO-SJU FEB 4>5
BA IAH-LHR FEB 1.7>1.5
BA JFK-LGW FEB 1.0>0.6

CA HNL-PEK APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.5>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.5>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.4

DL ATL-AUS APR 8>7
DL ATL-DEN JUL 9>10
DL ATL-PWM APR 1.9>1.3
DL ATL-RST APR 1.9>0.9
DL ATL-SFO JUN 8>9 JUL 9>10
DL BIS-MSP APR 6>7
DL CVG-IAH APR 1.5>0.9
DL CVG-STL JAN 1.4>1.0
DL DTW-FLL APR 6>5 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
DL DTW-ORD APR 8>7 MAY 8>7 JUN 8>7
DL DTW-PDX APR 1.4>1.0
DL DTW-TPA APR 6>4
Saturdays only
*DL JFK-HAV FEB 0.7>0.1 MAR 0.7>0.2 APR 0.7>0.1 MAY 0.7>0.1 JUN 0.9>0.2 JUL 1.0>0.1 AUG 1.0>0.1
DL LAN-MSP APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.8>3 JUN 2.0>3 JUL 1.9>3 AUG 2>3
DL LAS-SAN JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL LAS-SJC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
Is Delta losing a gate in LAX?
DL LAX-DTW APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
Service is mostly on E175s. Service was set to flip to 737s with same frequency. Now 717s and 737s and frequency cut.
*DL LAX-SFO APR 13>9 MAY 13>9 JUN 13>9 JUL 12>9 AUG 13>9
*DL LAX-SJC MAR 8>6 APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 8>7
*DL LAX-YVR MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
DL LGA-FLL APR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL LGA-PBI APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
DL LGA-RSW JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL MIA-LGA APR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL MLI-MSP APR 1.0>1.9 MAY 1.0>1.8 JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>1.8 AUG 1.0>1.9
DL MSP-SFO APR 6>5
DL SEA-ATL JUN 8>9 JUL 9>10
DL SEA-FLL MAR 0.3>0.2
DL SEA-MSP MAR 7>6 APR 7>6
DL SEA-PDX MAR 6>7
DL SEA-PSP APR 1.0>0.4
DL SLC-ATL JUL 9>10
DL SLC-COS MAR 0.8>1.8
DL SLC-GTF FEB 1.1>1.9 MAR 0.3>3 APR 1.8>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

**DY BOS-CPH APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.2>0 JUN 0.1>0 JUL 0.2>0 AUG 0.1>0
DY BOS-LGW APR 0.6>1.0 MAY 0.6>1.0 JUN 0.6>1.0 JUL 0.5>1.0 AUG 0.6>1.0
**DY BOS-OSL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0
DY EWR-BCN APR 0.6>0.9 MAY 0.6>0.9 JUN 0.5>0.8 JUL 0.6>0.9 AUG 0.5>0.8
*DY JFK-AMS MAY 0>0.5 JUN 0>0.6 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>0.6
*DY JFK-MAD JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.4
DY LAX-BCN APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.5 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.5>0.6
DY LAX-CPH APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.4>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.5>0.6
*DY LAX-MAD JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.6
*DY LAX-MXP JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>0.6
DY OAK-BCN APR 0.4>0.7 MAY 0.4>0.7 JUN 0.4>0.7 JUL 0.4>0.7 AUG 0.5>0.7

HU BOS-PVG APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5
HU SEA-PVG APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.5>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5

IG JFK-MXP JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
IG MIA-MXP JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.6 AUG 0>0.6

J1 ALB-PIT JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 BDL-PIT JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 CMH-MKE JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 CVG-PIT JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 IND-PIT JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 MKE-OMA JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 MKE-PIT JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 PIT-PVD JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 PIT-RIC JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4
J1 PIT-SDF JAN 0>1.2 FEB 0>1.4 MAR 0>1.4 APR 0>1.4 MAY 0>1.5 JUN 0>1.4

*JJ MCO-FOR JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3
JJ MCO-GIG JUL 0.4>0.7
JJ MIA-FOR MAY 0.2>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 AUG 0.1>0.3
JJ MIA-GIG MAY 1.0>1.2 JUN 1.0>1.1 AUG 1.0>1.1
JJ MIA-REC JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.1>0.3
*JJ MIA-SSA MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1

**LO EWR-RZE MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1
LO EWR-WAW MAY 0.7>0.6 JUN 0.7>0.6 JUL 0.7>0.6 AUG 0.7>0.6

MW HNL-MKK JAN 14>15 FEB 13>14 MAR 14>15 APR 14>15 MAY 14>15 JUN 14>15 JUL 14>15 AUG 14>15
*MW HNL-OGG JAN 0>3 FEB 0.1>4 MAR 0>3 APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
MW KOA-OGG JAN 13>14 FEB 13>14 MAR 14>15 APR 14>15 MAY 13>14 JUN 14>15 JUL 14>15 AUG 14>15
MW MKK-OGG JAN 11>10 FEB 11>10 MAR 11>10 APR 11>10 MAY 11>10 JUN 11>10 JUL 11>10 AUG 11>10

NZ HNL-AKL MAY 1.0>0.9

OR MIA-AMS APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3

S4 BOS-PDL APR 1.1>0.9 MAY 1.1>0.9 JUN 1.2>0.9 JUL 1.1>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.8
SY DFW-CUN APR 0.6>0.4
SY DFW-MSP APR 0.4>0.1 MAY 0.2>0.1

TJ BOS-HPN FEB 0>1.3 MAR 0>1.4

TS TPA-YYZ APR 0.2>0.1

UA BOS-CLE MAY 3>1.9
UA DEN-ANC JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2
UA DEN-BNA APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-BOI JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-BOS MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-BUR APR 1.9>3 MAY 1.9>3 JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-BZN JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-CID JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-CLE JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA DEN-COS APR 9>8 MAY 9>8
UA DEN-CPR JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5
UA DEN-DRO MAY 7>6
UA DEN-DSM JUN 4>6 JUL 4>6 AUG 4>6
UA DEN-EUG JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3
UA DEN-FAR MAY 4>3
UA DEN-FCA MAY 2>3 JUN 2>4 JUL 2>4 AUG 2>4
UA DEN-FLL APR 1.3>2 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2
UA DEN-FSD JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
UA DEN-GEG JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-GJT APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-GTF JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-HLN JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA DEN-HSV JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA DEN-ICT MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
UA DEN-IDA JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA DEN-IND JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-LGA APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
UA DEN-MAF APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-MCI JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA DEN-MFR JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3
*UA DEN-MIA APR 0.3>1.0 MAY 0>1.0
UA DEN-MSO JUN 3>5 JUL 3>5 AUG 3>5
UA DEN-PSC JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-PSP APR 4>5
UA DEN-RAP JUN 5>7 JUL 5>7 AUG 5>7
UA DEN-RDM JUN 2.0>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
*UA DEN-RSW MAY 0.1>1.0
UA DEN-SAF MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
UA DEN-SAN JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-SAT JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA DEN-SBA JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA DEN-SBP APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA DEN-SJC MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA DEN-SLC APR 7>6 MAY 7>6 JUN 7>6 JUL 7>6
UA DEN-SMF APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
UA DEN-TUS MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4
UA DEN-YVR APR 3>2 MAY 3>2
UA DEN-YWG MAY 2>1.0
UA DEN-YYC APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
UA DEN-YYZ MAY 3>1.9
UA EWR-AUS APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
UA EWR-BOS MAY 11>10
UA EWR-DEN JUN 8>9 JUL 8>9
UA EWR-FLL APR 10>8 MAY 7>6
UA EWR-MSP MAY 6>5
UA IAD-CAE MAY 4>3
UA IAD-CMH APR 4>1.5 MAY 4>0.9
UA IAD-CVG APR 3>4 MAY 1.9>3
UA IAD-DAY MAR 1.0>2
UA IAD-DEN JUN 7>8 JUL 7>8
UA IAD-FAY MAY 3>1.0
UA IAD-HSV JUN 0.8>1.8 JUL 0.9>2 AUG 0.9>2
UA IAD-SCE APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
UA IAH-AMA JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
UA IAH-BRO APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
UA IAH-DEN APR 12>11 MAY 12>10 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11
UA IAH-GRR JUN 1.0>1.8 JUL 1.0>2
*UA IAH-GUC JUL 0>1.0
*UA IAH-HDN JUL 0>1.0
UA IAH-JAN JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
UA IAH-LAS JUN 8>7 JUL 8>6 AUG 8>7
UA IAH-LBB JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
UA IAH-LIT JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
UA IAH-MCO JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7
UA IAH-MFE JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
UA IAH-MOB JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
*UA IAH-MTJ JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA IAH-PHX JUL 5>4
UA IAH-RSW JUN 2>1.2 JUL 2>1.0
UA IAH-TUS JUL 4>3
UA IAH-VPS JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
DL Cuts LAX, UA Adds. Gate swapped?
UA LAX-EWR APR 12>11 MAY 13>11
*UA LAX-FAT APR 1.5>4 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4 AUG 1.0>4
UA LAX-IAD MAY 8>7
UA LAX-IAH APR 12>10 MAY 12>10 JUN 12>11 JUL 12>11
UA LAX-LAS APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA LAX-PHX APR 4>3 MAY 4>3
*UA LAX-RNO APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3
UA LAX-SMF APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
UA ORD-BWI MAY 4>3
UA ORD-DEN MAY 10>11
*UA ORD-GTF JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0
*UA ORD-MTJ JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA SFO-AUS APR 4>5 MAY 4>5
UA SFO-BOI MAY 4>5
UA SFO-CLE APR 1.7>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
UA SFO-CTU JUN 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.4
*UA SFO-DEN APR 13>10 MAY 14>10 JUN 14>13 JUL 14>13 AUG 14>13
UA SFO-FLL APR 1.7>1.0 MAY 2>1.0
UA SFO-PDX APR 9>8 MAY 9>8
UA SFO-PHL MAY 3>2
UA SFO-RDM MAY 3>4
UA SFO-RDU APR 1.2>2.0 MAY 1.0>2
UA SFO-RNO APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
UA SFO-SBA APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
UA SFO-SEA APR 10>8 MAY 10>7
UA SFO-SLC APR 6>5 MAY 6>5
UA SFO-STL APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>1.0
UA SFO-TUS APR 3>4 MAY 2>4

VA LAX-SYD MAY 1.0>0.9

VS ATL-MAN JUN 1.0>0.9 JUL 1.0>0.8 AUG 1.0>0.9
VS MCO-LGW MAY 1.8>1.7 JUL 1.9>1.6
VS MCO-MAN JUL 1.5>1.3

VVC MIA-MDE FEB 0.0>0.3

*WW ORD-KEF MAR 0.6>0.9 APR 0.8>1.0

X4 AGN-JNU MAY 0>0.7 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
X4 AGN-TKE MAY 3>2.0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0.6
X4 JNU-TKE JUN 0>2 JUL 0>1.9 AUG 0>1.5

enilria wrote:

FAQ
UA SFO-PHL MAY 3>2

There goes the increased service due to AS/VX in the market.

enilria wrote:

DL Cuts LAX, UA Adds. Gate swapped?

Not sure about the DL situation, but UA has been down 1-2 gates at a time for the past two years or so during its terminal project, which should wrap this spring. For the first time in a while they'll be back to 'full strength' in terms of T7/8 real estate, which allows for these adds, mostly with UAX equipment since it's been T8 gates blocked for the past year or so.

thanks Enilria

I just don't understand , again, why AC does MCI-YYZ twice daily "off-season" and once daily in summer and then to see , here, MEM get some love and goes 2xdaily in summer?!. oh well I am grateful we have them at all but come on!

enilria wrote:

This seems like a big deal...or just slot-sitting? Is this bad for JFK int'l or bad for PHL int'l? Probably the latter...
*AA PHL-JFK APR 0>6 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6 JUL 0>6 AUG 0>6

The frequency is notable and interesting, although, in looking at the schedule, it appears that only two of these six slot pairs is really at times when JFK slots are in high demand (i.e., worth "sitting" on).

enilria wrote:

Wow, merger capacity cut?
*AS SEA-LAX MAR 13>9 APR 15>10 MAY 19>15
Also wow?
*AS SEA-SFO MAR 8>4 APR 10>6

Suspect it's more just a rationalization of the two carriers' overlapping schedules.

enilria wrote:

DL LAS-SAN JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL LAS-SJC JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

I continue to find it remarkable that Delta believes these markets are worth dedicating several lines worth of 2-class RJ flying.

enilria wrote:

Is Delta losing a gate in LAX?
DL LAX-DTW APR 7>6 MAY 7>6
Service is mostly on E175s. Service was set to flip to 737s with same frequency. Now 717s and 737s and frequency cut.
*DL LAX-SFO APR 13>9 MAY 13>9 JUN 13>9 JUL 12>9 AUG 13>9
*DL LAX-SJC MAR 8>6 APR 8>6 MAY 8>6 JUN 8>6 JUL 7>6 AUG 8>7

I believe Delta is supposed to be losing one or multiple gates on and off over the next few years as the work on T2/T3 progresses, although I'm not sure that's necessarily what's going on in this case. In any event, Delta retains more than enough frequency and capacity in all of these markets to be perfectly competitive.

enilria wrote:

*DL LAX-YVR MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

Not surprising. Delta's flights were arguably redundant with the pending WestJet JV.

enilria wrote:

JJ MIA-FOR MAY 0.2>0.3 JUN 0.1>0.3 AUG 0.1>0.3
JJ MIA-GIG MAY 1.0>1.2 JUN 1.0>1.1 AUG 1.0>1.1
JJ MIA-REC JUN 0.1>0.3 JUL 0.1>0.3
*JJ MIA-SSA MAY 0>0.1 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1

Good to see MIA-Brazil capacity coming back, and in particular the resumption of nonstop MIA-REC and MIA-SSA.

enilria wrote:

DL Cuts LAX, UA Adds. Gate swapped?
*UA LAX-FAT APR 1.5>4 MAY 1.0>4 JUN 1.0>4 JUL 1.0>4 AUG 1.0>4
UA LAX-LAS APR 4>5 MAY 4>5 JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
*UA LAX-RNO APR 1.0>1.7 MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>3 JUL 1.0>3 AUG 1.0>3
UA LAX-SMF APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

As has been discussed many times before, this is going to be very interesting to watch. United seems intent on dumping even more capacity into LAX, and in particular this type of shorter haul market, on top of all the growth on such routes from competitors in recent years. I remain skeptical of the market's ability to economically support all of the capacity. I guess we'll find out in time.

The battle for Wilmington is on!
Also, seems like FCA is getting quite a bit of new capacity this summer.

cledaybuck wrote:

The battle for Wilmington is on!

Ha, yep.

cledaybuck wrote:

Also, seems like FCA is getting quite a bit of new capacity this summer.

With all the other growth in Montana in the last few years, I'm still hoping that AA opens up DFW-FCA at some point soon. Seems like a perfect market for a summer seasonal A319.

codc10 wrote:

enilria wrote:

DL Cuts LAX, UA Adds. Gate swapped?

Not sure about the DL situation, but UA has been down 1-2 gates at a time for the past two years or so during its terminal project, which should wrap this spring. For the first time in a while they'll be back to 'full strength' in terms of T7/8 real estate, which allows for these adds, mostly with UAX equipment since it's been T8 gates blocked for the past year or so.

I find it hard to believe DL would cut frequency that much unless forced. Must be terminal related.

RJNUT wrote:

thanks Enilria

I just don't understand , again, why AC does MCI-YYZ twice daily "off-season" and once daily in summer and then to see , here, MEM get some love and goes 2xdaily in summer?!. oh well I am grateful we have them at all but come on!

Here's my theory. For Canada, MCI is basically balmy in the Winter. LOL. So perhaps that CRJ is basically "parked" there in the Winter just to give it something to do and when Summer come it flies some intra-Canada market with a strong Summer peak? Put another way, in Summer there are better routes, but in Winter there aren't? It's not like they can fly a CRJ YYZ-NAS.

Thanks for the update this week

enilria wrote:

*AA MIA-BON JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1

Scuba divers on the east coast will be happy with this one.

enilria wrote:

**DY BOS-CPH APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.2>0 JUN 0.1>0 JUL 0.2>0 AUG 0.1>0
DY BOS-LGW APR 0.6>1.0 MAY 0.6>1.0 JUN 0.6>1.0 JUL 0.5>1.0 AUG 0.6>1.0
**DY BOS-OSL APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0

I noticed a route map on DY's twitter posted after the cut this week with the Boston-Scandinavia routes intact. Its possible CPH/OSL are brought back within a couple of weeks but I can see why they may not - DY needs to defend against Primera Air BOS-STN. These routes could also become A321LR routes in 2019

enilria wrote:

HU BOS-PVG APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5
HU SEA-PVG APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.5>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5

Frequency swap between BOS and SEA. HU is definitely gearing up to become closer with B6.

enilria wrote:

S4 BOS-PDL APR 1.1>0.9 MAY 1.1>0.9 JUN 1.2>0.9 JUL 1.1>0.9 AUG 1.0>0.8

No more A310 on this route! S4 is using A321neo come January 2018.

Should be noted that although DY have zeroed out CPH/OSL-BOSthey have also increased LGW-BOS to daily and still have the prior 2 on their route map so they may be back at some point.

enilria wrote:

UA IAD-CMH APR 4>1.5 MAY 4>0.9

Is this a misfile?

I think the AA PHL-JFK flight isn’t *worse* for anyone, it’s just giving NYC travelers better international options from their PHL hub. Delta has been flying the route (for the opposite- giving PHL travelers more options from JFK) with 757s on a thirty minute flight recently. AA has shifted a few flights from JFK where they can be better served out of PHL. Interesting as quite a few armchair CEO a.netters thought they would ditch the PHL hub for JFK.

enilria wrote:

*DL LAX-SFO APR 13>9 MAY 13>9 JUN 13>9 JUL 12>9 AUG 13>9

Finally explain why the flight is no longer marketed as Delta Shuttle I guess. This was the only hourly route out in West Coast and the cut is definitely due to operational issue (i.e. Terminal)

codc10 wrote:

Not sure about the DL situation, but UA has been down 1-2 gates at a time for the past two years or so during its terminal project, which should wrap this spring. For the first time in a while they'll be back to 'full strength' in terms of T7/8 real estate, which allows for these adds, mostly with UAX equipment since it's been T8 gates blocked for the past year or so.

Exactly I think this has more to do with UA having access to all their gates. I know when Scott Kirby joined UA he did at the time slightly criticized UA for leasing out 4 gates in T6 to AA. Although I'm sure when he was over at AA he was more than happy AA was able to get their hands on those 4 additional gates. However every time Scott Kirby talks about LAX he talks about need and desire to expand at LAX the problem is UA doesn't have gates. Once we gain access to the 2 additional gates that we've been down during the terminal construction that will allow UA to grow both UAX and probably mainline (narrow body) flights. Also there is the rumor that sometime in Q1, 2018 UA will announce another international route from LAX it is being referred to as a new/old route. We will have to wait and see if this rumor is true but it is good to see UA growing and fighting for more market share in the highly competitive LA market. The turnaround UA is experiencing at LAX is simply amazing.

jeffh747 wrote:

I think the AA PHL-JFK flight isn’t *worse* for anyone, it’s just giving NYC travelers better international options from their PHL hub. Delta has been flying the route (for the opposite- giving PHL travelers more options from JFK) with 757s on a thirty minute flight recently. AA has shifted a few flights from JFK where they can be better served out of PHL. Interesting as quite a few armchair CEO a.netters thought they would ditch the PHL hub for JFK.

I agree with you.

If you recall US flew LGA-PHL for years with high frequency. Many said it was to sit on slots and that may be true but those flights also fed a PHL INTL hub. I would bet this is just the same move.

Certainly an interesting (and a bit disturbing) showing for AS this week.

Disregarding the Apple Vacation routes, only 5 of the AS listings are increases, leaving 21 decreases! Considering a lot of the postings are for the summer period, that's something to take note of.

Although I haven't actually studied the schedules yet, some of the changes appear to involve Qs (and perhaps an EMJ or 2) -- including all 5 of the increases, which are all short-hauls -- while the majority appear to be mainline routes. There's of course some merger stuff going on, while 19 of the 26 listed changes involve PDX and SEA.

I will add, however, that I don’t think any of the schedules beyond maybe early March are finalized yet (unless these changes confirm that the March 11 spring schedule – the beginning of DST – is now done) so I think lots of these changes continue to be ‘works in progress’ and subject to change. STS skeds, for example, have already changed quite a bit according to these OAG updates.

This conversation is going to take off once the west coasters wake up and sign in on this Sunday morning! Prepare for departure...

bb

If SAS weren’t flying an A330 to Boston would DY have cut back? Or do the two not have anything to do with each other?

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

UA IAD-CMH APR 4>1.5 MAY 4>0.9

Is this a misfile?

I think so, still 4x/day on UA's website.

RJNUT wrote:

thanks Enilria

I just don't understand , again, why AC does MCI-YYZ twice daily "off-season" and once daily in summer and then to see , here, MEM get some love and goes 2xdaily in summer?!. oh well I am grateful we have them at all but come on!

It's music tourism, plain and simple.

Canadians are the #1 international source of tourist for Memphis, followed by the UK and then the test of Europe with Brazilians, Aussies, and Japanese rounding it out.

The flights were full or in the mid 90s last summer and even pulled mid 80's in OCT.

I'm sure other airIines (Norwegian, WOW , Ect) are seeing folks connecting via Toronto.

The hub was wonderful for the business traveler but absolutely held back O&D.

Again, I think MEM is exactly the type of market that a proper MOM opens up for LCC longhaul.

chrisnh wrote:

If SAS weren’t flying an A330 to Boston would DY have cut back? Or do the two not have anything to do with each other?

See above - it just seems more likely that DY needs to strengthen LGW with Primera's entrance into UK-BOS. If these cuts are permanent: a decision could be made to try OSL with 737MAX to BOS or PVD (CPH can't be done), or they wait until 2019 with A321LR.

SK is not chasing low fare customers to Scandinavia during peak summer though the legacies and their JV partners have some very cheap fares ranging from 650-800 USD. There are some great deals off peak however.

While these threads are generally interesting with respect to changes, the headlines are too often overly sensational. DL shrinks LAX implies that they’re making major changes to the hub aimed at substantially curtailing flying, not that they’re dropping one daily LAX-SJC flight, a few LAX-SFO flights (a route still served 9 times daily), and both probably construction related, and a LAX-YVR flight that will be operated by their new JV partner.

Its a busy week. Thanks as always enrila!

AS SEA-LAX MAR 13>9 APR 15>10 MAY 19>15
AS SEA-PDX MAR 25>23 APR 26>24 MAY 26>25
AS SEA-SFO MAR 8>4 APR 10>6
AS SEA-LAS MAR 9>8 APR 11>8 MAY 11>9

These are some pretty big cuts to SEA. The cuts to SEA-LAX make sense to me because there is just too much capacity on that route given that you have AA, DL, NK, and UA operating this route in addition to AS/VX. I am curious what's driving these other cuts. AS has been growing pretty aggressively in the last couple of years with a lot of growth to the east coast, perhaps this will free up aircraft to continue with that strategy or increase some of these new routes that have proved to be quite lucrative.

DL LGA-FLL APR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5
DL LGA-PBI APR 5>4 MAY 5>4 JUN 5>4 JUL 5>4 AUG 5>4
DL LGA-RSW JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
DL MIA-LGA APR 6>5 MAY 6>5 JUN 6>5 JUL 6>5 AUG 6>5

I wonder what is driving these cuts. Perhaps too much capacity now that they've removed the MD88 from LGA service. This does free up 4 slots.

adamh8297 wrote:

Thanks for the update this week

adamh8297 wrote:

I noticed a route map on DY's twitter posted after the cut this week with the Boston-Scandinavia routes intact. Its possible CPH/OSL are brought back within a couple of weeks but I can see why they may not - DY needs to defend against Primera Air BOS-STN. These routes could also become A321LR routes in 2019

On the one hand it is surprising to see them surrender anything, but on the other hand I feel like these routes were basically only there for legal reasons at the onset and now that they have full legal authority for all their subsidiaries I'm not sure they have a profitable purpose any more. OTOH, certainly could be a filing error.

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

UA IAD-CMH APR 4>1.5 MAY 4>0.9

Is this a misfile?

Somebody should check UA.com. Sometimes these sorts of things happen when an airline files an internal equipment code externally and OAG does not recognize it. This happens a lot with DL* at-risk operators.

jeffh747 wrote:

I think the AA PHL-JFK flight isn’t *worse* for anyone, it’s just giving NYC travelers better international options from their PHL hub. Delta has been flying the route (for the opposite- giving PHL travelers more options from JFK) with 757s on a thirty minute flight recently. AA has shifted a few flights from JFK where they can be better served out of PHL. Interesting as quite a few armchair CEO a.netters thought they would ditch the PHL hub for JFK.

I suspect it is intended to take intl traffic from PHL and start funneling it over JFK which is bad for PHL. There really is no business case for JFK-PHL-Anywhere.

zakuivcustom wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL LAX-SFO APR 13>9 MAY 13>9 JUN 13>9 JUL 12>9 AUG 13>9

Finally explain why the flight is no longer marketed as Delta Shuttle I guess. This was the only hourly route out in West Coast and the cut is definitely due to operational issue (i.e. Terminal)

I forgot about the implications on that shuttle. Shuttles are a dying breed. I wonder if maybe they will announce new flights with the space made available or they lost a gate? I suspect the latter.

OA412 wrote:

While these threads are generally interesting with respect to changes, the headlines are too often overly sensational. DL shrinks LAX implies that they’re making major changes to the hub aimed at substantially curtailing flying, not that they’re dropping one daily LAX-SJC flight, a few LAX-SFO flights (a route still served 9 times daily), and both probably construction related, and a LAX-YVR flight that will be operated by their new JV partner.

What word would you use other than "shrinks" in the space available? Shrinks is accurate and eliminating an hourly shuttle is significant.

orangeguy wrote:

Its a busy week. Thanks as always enrila!

orangeguy wrote:

These are some pretty big cuts to SEA. The cuts to SEA-LAX make sense to me because there is just too much capacity on that route given that you have AA, DL, NK, and UA operating this route in addition to AS/VX. I am curious what's driving these other cuts. AS has been growing pretty aggressively in the last couple of years with a lot of growth to the east coast, perhaps this will free up aircraft to continue with that strategy or increase some of these new routes that have proved to be quite lucrative.

Most are why mergers aren't good for customers. You merge and reduce overlapping capacity. Fares will rise.

orangeguy wrote:

I wonder what is driving these cuts. Perhaps too much capacity now that they've removed the MD88 from LGA service. This does free up 4 slots.

Interesting thought...

enilria wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

UA IAD-CMH APR 4>1.5 MAY 4>0.9

Is this a misfile?

Somebody should check UA.com. Sometimes these sorts of things happen when an airline files an internal equipment code externally and OAG does not recognize it. This happens a lot with DL* at-risk operators.

Yep, it's still loaded on UA.com, must be a misfile.

chrisnh wrote:

If SAS weren’t flying an A330 to Boston would DY have cut back? Or do the two not have anything to do with each other?

While they operate the same routes, their customer base isn't the same so it doesn't have as much significance as say AA and DL operating and competing on the same route. DY goes for basic travelers, a large number of which wouldn't book if the fares weren't so low.

That being said, flooding the market with seats never helps, but DY is becoming more CASM/RASM savvy, and would rather place aircraft where there is no competition whatsoever. While they can make money on route A with a competitor, if they can make more money on route B, they'll move the aircraft there till the dust settles.

Just my opinion though.

bluefltspecial wrote:

chrisnh wrote:

If SAS weren’t flying an A330 to Boston would DY have cut back? Or do the two not have anything to do with each other?

While they operate the same routes, their customer base isn't the same.

I think the customer base is exactly the same. The O&D market between Boston and CPH or OSL is very tiny which means that both airlines are in it for the Boston-Europe connecting traffic. Both airlines offer similar fares. DY is not cheap. In fact I have never seen a ticket on DY that is cheaper than any of the main legacy carriers that fly TATL from Boston.

OA412 wrote:

While these threads are generally interesting with respect to changes, the headlines are too often overly sensational. DL shrinks LAX implies that they’re making major changes to the hub aimed at substantially curtailing flying, not that they’re dropping one daily LAX-SJC flight, a few LAX-SFO flights (a route still served 9 times daily), and both probably construction related, and a LAX-YVR flight that will be operated by their new JV partner.

100%

enilria wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

enilria wrote:

*DL LAX-SFO APR 13>9 MAY 13>9 JUN 13>9 JUL 12>9 AUG 13>9

Finally explain why the flight is no longer marketed as Delta Shuttle I guess. This was the only hourly route out in West Coast and the cut is definitely due to operational issue (i.e. Terminal)

I forgot about the implications on that shuttle. Shuttles are a dying breed. I wonder if maybe they will announce new flights with the space made available or they lost a gate? I suspect the latter.

Yep, just went on DL's website just to look at the new schedule. No more "Departing on the hour" (i.e. xx00) from LAX nor Depart on xx50 from SFO also. The schedule now looks more like the former "Shuttle" schedule on LAX-SEA and SFO-SEA.

Total # of seats are WAY up, though. Checking on a random mid-May date, it's 4x 717 and 5x 738 for 1240 Seats OW. Right now it's 12-13x E75 for 912-988 seats OW.

enilria wrote:

jeffh747 wrote:

I think the AA PHL-JFK flight isn’t *worse* for anyone, it’s just giving NYC travelers better international options from their PHL hub. Delta has been flying the route (for the opposite- giving PHL travelers more options from JFK) with 757s on a thirty minute flight recently. AA has shifted a few flights from JFK where they can be better served out of PHL. Interesting as quite a few armchair CEO a.netters thought they would ditch the PHL hub for JFK.

I suspect it is intended to take intl traffic from PHL and start funneling it over JFK which is bad for PHL. There really is no business case for JFK-PHL-Anywhere.

Can you elaborate on why you think this is to take international traffic away from PHL?

I admittedly am more familiar with PHL than JFK but int'l traffic towards JFK seems counter to other recent moves by AA. AA dropped TATL destinations that are served by PHL (ex. MAN) and has transferred ZRH from JFK to PHL. Also they are adding new TATL destinatiosn at PHL (ex. PRG, BUD). In S18, there will be two TATL destinations served by JFK not at PHL (MXP & EDI) while PHL will have 12 TATL destinations not at JFK (AMS, MAN, MUC, ZRH, ATH, BUD, FRA, LIS, PRG, SNN, VCE). The other 6 TATL destinations served by JFK are also served by PHL (LHR, CDG, MAD, DUB, BCN, FCO). I too don't suspect this is anti-PHL or anti-JFK TATL. But connectivity between the two will open up connections for 2 new markets in JFK and 12 new markets in PHL.

enilria wrote:

*AA ORD-ILM JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA ORD-MSO JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*AA ORD-PWM JUN 0>1.6 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2
*AA ORD-SAV JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
This seems like a big deal...or just slot-sitting? Is this bad for JFK int'l or bad for PHL int'l? Probably the latter...
*AA PHL-JFK APR 0>6 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6 JUL 0>6 AUG 0>6

Lots of new service from AA. We have been waiting for the PWM-ORD flights since the AA/US merger. Very happy to see this finally happen.

AA at JFK is done!

They dont know what to do with the slots. A few west coast adds and this.

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-STL APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>1.0

This one I find interesting. Not sure the last time STL-SFO was only once daily on United. It does happen to overlap when WN starts STL-SJC though. Also, it is mainline SFO->STL but RJ on the return. There are no mainline UA flight from STL to anywhere over the same time period so something has to change. Hopefully, they just add the 2nd flight back in.

AA JFK-PHL is lot squatting, plain and simple. IMO, a JFK-PHL connection, particularly timed for Europe connections in PHL, makes a ton of sense. But 6 daily on 44-seat ERJ-140s? That's slot squatting. Pathetic move by AA who doesn't seems to have a clue how to operate in the #1 market in the country.

AA a few years ago finally stopped the crap of 15-18 daily CRJs on LGA-PHL and actually launched additional cities/flights for business travelers (remember the cut and re-launch of ATL?) while wisely retaining a few LGA-PHL per day for connections. Now they are reverting to the same sad approach at JFK.

Really depressing to see what has become of AA under US management.

VS4ever wrote:

Should be noted that although DY have zeroed out CPH/OSL-BOSthey have also increased LGW-BOS to daily and still have the prior 2 on their route map so they may be back at some point.

This has to make SK happy. Wonder if they'll announce any increase on BOS-CPH?

Thanks again enilria

enilria wrote:

\This seems like a big deal...or just slot-sitting? Is this bad for JFK int'l or bad for PHL int'l? Probably the latter...
*AA PHL-JFK APR 0>6 MAY 0>6 JUN 0>6 JUL 0>6 AUG 0>6

pure slot squatting.

AC BOS-YUL MAY 5>6 JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
AC BWI-YYZ MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AC DEN-YUL JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC DEN-YVR JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AC IAD-YUL MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC IAH-YYC MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
AC IAH-YYZ MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AC MCO-YUL JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AC MEM-YYZ MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
AC SAN-YVR MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

seems like a lot of solid adds here. Maybe gearing up for WS/DL JV.

AS pulls Q400s out of FAI
AS BOS-SFO JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
AS DEN-SFO APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
*AS MSP-SFO MAY 1.4>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0
*AS SEA-SFO MAR 8>4 APR 10>6

a lot of serious cuts out of SFO. Not sure what they were thinking trying to schedule in a 4th daily on BOS-SFO.

AS PDX-DFW MAY 1.4>1.0 JUN 2>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.8>1.0
AS PDX-ORD MAR 1.6>0.9 APR 1.8>1.0
AS SEA-GEG MAR 15>14 MAY 15>14
AS SEA-LAS MAR 9>8 APR 11>8 MAY 11>9
Wow, merger capacity cut?
*AS SEA-LAX MAR 13>9 APR 15>10 MAY 19>15
AS SEA-PDX MAR 25>23 APR 26>24 MAY 26>25
AS SEA-YEG APR 3>2 MAY 3>2 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2
AS SEA-YVR JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
AS SEA-YYJ MAR 4>3 MAY 4>3 JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3

a lot of serious cuts here out of SEA and PDX. Don't think this is just merger capacity cut.

B6 FLL-SJU FEB 4>5
B6 JFK-SJU FEB 4>5
B6 MCO-SJU FEB 4>5

I guess SJU bookings are coming back. A lot of late adds here

*DL LAX-YVR MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

due to JV I guess?

HU BOS-PVG APR 0.4>0.6 MAY 0.5>0.6 JUN 0.4>0.6 JUL 0.4>0.6 AUG 0.4>0.5
HU SEA-PVG APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.5>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4 JUL 0.6>0.4 AUG 0.6>0.5

interesting shift here by HU

UA SFO-FLL APR 1.7>1.0 MAY 2>1.0

not sure why they tried to go twice 2 daily here. They are bleeding money on this route.

What is going on with AS? Why all the cuts? Maybe DL is hurting them more than we thought?

zakuivcustom wrote:

enilria wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Finally explain why the flight is no longer marketed as Delta Shuttle I guess. This was the only hourly route out in West Coast and the cut is definitely due to operational issue (i.e. Terminal)

I forgot about the implications on that shuttle. Shuttles are a dying breed. I wonder if maybe they will announce new flights with the space made available or they lost a gate? I suspect the latter.

Yep, just went on DL's website just to look at the new schedule. No more "Departing on the hour" (i.e. xx00) from LAX nor Depart on xx50 from SFO also. The schedule now looks more like the former "Shuttle" schedule on LAX-SEA and SFO-SEA.

Total # of seats are WAY up, though. Checking on a random mid-May date, it's 4x 717 and 5x 738 for 1240 Seats OW. Right now it's 12-13x E75 for 912-988 seats OW.

I was wondering what the heck was happening with LAX-SFO but with your research it makes more sense. I fly that route a few times per month and it’s consistently full on the 717/ERJ. Does that mean it’s minting money? Who knows, but 9 flights a day is more than enough to be convenient for connections and O&D. I doubt anyone will be turned away because they can’t get a flight on the hour. That being said it obviously matters what times those flights are. A Wednesday in March LAX-SFO leaves:

0700
0800
0900
1000
1200
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2100

A Wednesday in May it’s:
0700
0845
1015
1145
1320
1500
1645
1845
2000

That’s a nice spectrum but losing the 2100 flight hurts me because I usually connect off the 1200 from HNL. Granted I’m a drop in the bucket. There’s a 2105 to OAK though so at least my spectrum is complete.

Product-wise, it will be a shame to lose the ERJs - those are great customer service machines IMO.

Lots of UA adds in DEN is probably why the decrease in SFO-DEN frequency.

DEN-SBP is a fairly new route and is already going 2x daily. DEN-SBA has never gone 4x daily or even 3x daily on a regular basis.

The cut to SFO-CTU is continued bad news for secondary China cities for UA

obelau24 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

enilria wrote:

I forgot about the implications on that shuttle. Shuttles are a dying breed. I wonder if maybe they will announce new flights with the space made available or they lost a gate? I suspect the latter.

Yep, just went on DL's website just to look at the new schedule. No more "Departing on the hour" (i.e. xx00) from LAX nor Depart on xx50 from SFO also. The schedule now looks more like the former "Shuttle" schedule on LAX-SEA and SFO-SEA.

Total # of seats are WAY up, though. Checking on a random mid-May date, it's 4x 717 and 5x 738 for 1240 Seats OW. Right now it's 12-13x E75 for 912-988 seats OW.

I was wondering what the heck was happening with LAX-SFO but with your research it makes more sense. I fly that route a few times per month and it’s consistently full on the 717/ERJ. Does that mean it’s minting money? Who knows, but 9 flights a day is more than enough to be convenient for connections and O&D. I doubt anyone will be turned away because they can’t get a flight on the hour. That being said it obviously matters what times those flights are. A Wednesday in March LAX-SFO leaves:

0700
0800
0900
1000
1200
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2100

A Wednesday in May it’s:
0700
0845
1015
1145
1320
1500
1645
1845
2000

That’s a nice spectrum but losing the 2100 flight hurts me because I usually connect off the 1200 from HNL. Granted I’m a drop in the bucket. There’s a 2105 to OAK though so at least my spectrum is complete.

Product-wise, it will be a shame to lose the ERJs - those are great customer service machines IMO.

As a point of reference, here are the average fares from Q2 for LAX-SFO and some of the other routes seeing cuts from various carriers.

LAXSFO
OO 3717 145.19
DL 3766 129.85
WN 10743 122.61
VX 13954 134.38
CP 6207 162.97
UA 10676 150.96
I'm assuming OO here is operating for DL and CP is compass operating for AA. Looks like DL/OO are below average in both main line and regional fares. I doubt they are minting money.

SEALAX
AA 1643 131.02
OO 1185 175.38
DL 12420 143.39
NK 2529 68.17
WN 1240 137.24
AS 22050 130.43
VX 3994 125.03
CP 2943 153.16

SEASFO
OO 2251 182.16
DL 1878 162.87
AS 10642 158.92
VX 6958 164.22
CP 1347 178.33
UA 6006 193.75

LAXSJC
DL 2124 133.71
WN 11225 134.69
CP 3603 152.98

LAXPDX
DL 4344 130.07
NK 839 71.77
WN 4400 109.23
AS 13392 121.97
CP 2801 132.95
UA 759 108.43

It's no wonder NK dropped LAX-PDX/SEA. Also striking how little mainline AA on these west coast routes.

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

Can you elaborate on why you think this is to take international traffic away from PHL?

So, for the most part there is no domestic market at JFK unless it's low fare or can't be flown from LGA. There's only a natural international and long-haul market. AA is not low-fare, so I highly doubt their plan is to undercut B6 non-stops out of JFK by having passengers fly JFK-PHL-* when they could just fly LGA-* non-stop or B6.

Also, there's basically no reason for passengers to fly JFK-PHL-* for intl. JFK has much lower fares than pretty much any U.S. gateway airport, so AA can't make fares low enough to compensate for the painful connect...plus if you are AA loyal you either fly LGA-PHL-* or use the JFK non-stops or One World. Bottom line, there is no business case for JFK-PHL-*.

There's obviously no local market, so now you have the only two remaining markets, PHL-JFK-* for domestic which is crazy because PHL has everything JFK has for AA in spades. That only leaves PHL-JFK-* international. Even if AA's offerings are sparser at JFK than PHL, this will be code shared with all of One World and you add that all up and it should probably fill up a fair number of the seats.

It's basically process of elimination, there's really nobody else to be on the plane except PHL-JFK-Int'l. It will put pressure on PHL-Intl. Whether it is intended to do that or simply a slot sitting experiment remains to be seen, but that's who is going to largely be on these planes in terms of a business justification. Another thing to consider is that it will complicate PHL-Europe revenue management because with all the JFK OW capacity it will be VERY hard to bucket up their PHL-Europe non-stops without being significantly undercut by their own JFK connects and code share connects.

EDIT: Another comment. I haven't noticed the schedule, but I'm assuming these slots are spread throughout the day and not clustered at peaks? If so that negates the slot argument because why would they lose money on a flight to hold a non-peak slot when non-peak slots are fairly worthless? In a normal market you would do it for service pattern, but in a market like this service pattern makes no difference with no local market.

enilria wrote:

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

Can you elaborate on why you think this is to take international traffic away from PHL?

So, for the most part there is no domestic market at JFK unless it's low fare or can't be flown from LGA. There's only a natural international and long-haul market. AA is not low-fare, so I highly doubt their plan is to undercut B6 non-stops out of JFK by having passengers fly JFK-PHL-* when they could just fly LGA-* non-stop or B6.

Also, there's basically no reason for passengers to fly JFK-PHL-* for intl. JFK has much lower fares than pretty much any U.S. gateway airport, so AA can't make fares low enough to compensate for the painful connect...plus if you are AA loyal you either fly LGA-PHL-* or use the JFK non-stops or One World. Bottom line, there is no business case for JFK-PHL-*.

There's obviously no local market, so now you have the only two remaining markets, PHL-JFK-* for domestic which is crazy because PHL has everything JFK has for AA in spades. That only leaves PHL-JFK-* international. Even if AA's offerings are sparser at JFK than PHL, this will be code shared with all of One World and you add that all up and it should probably fill up a fair number of the seats.

It's basically process of elimination, there's really nobody else to be on the plane except PHL-JFK-Int'l. It will put pressure on PHL-Intl. Whether it is intended to do that or simply a slot sitting experiment remains to be seen, but that's who is going to largely be on these planes in terms of a business justification. Another thing to consider is that it will complicate PHL-Europe revenue management because with all the JFK OW capacity it will be VERY hard to bucket up their PHL-Europe non-stops without being significantly undercut by their own JFK connects and code share connects.

EDIT: Another comment. I haven't noticed the schedule, but I'm assuming these slots are spread throughout the day and not clustered at peaks? If so that negates the slot argument because why would they lose money on a flight to hold a non-peak slot when non-peak slots are fairly worthless? In a normal market you would do it for service pattern, but in a market like this service pattern makes no difference with no local market.

Can you be specific when you say PHL-JFK-Intl? Do you mean East Asia, South America, Europe? I do see that I can now fly PHL-JFK-HKG as an additional choice over say PHL-ORD-HKG on AA/CX, but the thing is PHL doesn't have a nonstop to HKG or anywhere in East Asia that it's adversely affecting the nonstop out of PHL. I'm not sure if the choice of PHL-JFK-Europe is all that meaningful. It's just one more choice now. If anything, it additional choices at PHL for international (even via one connection) encourages pax to use PHL possibly, than drive up to EWR.

I really can't say I buy the argument that this is to try to route PHL customers over JFK for international, sorry. The PHL-JFK times on (to choose a day) April 12 are

0650
0909
1040
1340
1530
1805

which (especially operated only with ERJs) does not look at all to me like an attempt to funnel PHL-Intl traffic to JFK. It's not obvious to me what oneworld connections from PHL are better done over JFK than over other hubs in the network:
PHL-HEL via AY? You can do PHL-ZRH-HEL or PHL-FRA-HEL or PHL-LHR-HEL in comparable time
PHL-HKG via CX? AA would probably prefer to keep you on their metal via DFW or LAX
PHL-TYO via JL? Go via ORD

The main new connections I see enabled by this are AMM, HND, and daytime LHR, which are nice but not world-changing.

I'm not a New Yorker, so I can't comment on local markets, but there's 6x daily mainline of JFK-CLT so *somebody* is flying domestic. I respectfully submit that it's just as likely that the target market is domestic - PHL - JFK.

DL/UA gate swap is an interesting idea @LAX but I tend to think it's a coincidence that Delta reduces a bunch of flights and UA adds.

Delta really wants to funnel more traffic thru SEA, so LAX is just assisting that. SEA is the priority at the moment.

United has said for a while they are gonna focus more on LAX, so I think it's just using what they have more efficiently.

slowrambler wrote:

I really can't say I buy the argument that this is to try to route PHL customers over JFK for international, sorry. The PHL-JFK times on (to choose a day) April 12 are

0650
0909
1040
1340
1530
1805

which (especially operated only with ERJs) does not look at all to me like an attempt to funnel PHL-Intl traffic to JFK. It's not obvious to me what oneworld connections from PHL are better done over JFK than over other hubs in the network:
PHL-HEL via AY? You can do PHL-ZRH-HEL or PHL-FRA-HEL or PHL-LHR-HEL in comparable time
PHL-HKG via CX? AA would probably prefer to keep you on their metal via DFW or LAX
PHL-TYO via JL? Go via ORD

The main new connections I see enabled by this are AMM, HND, and daytime LHR, which are nice but not world-changing.

I'm not a New Yorker, so I can't comment on local markets, but there's 6x daily mainline of JFK-CLT so *somebody* is flying domestic. I respectfully submit that it's just as likely that the target market is domestic - PHL - JFK.

Completely different cases. You can't drive in reasonable time from JFK to CLT.

It's a 2 hour drive to Philly from Penn Station. The only O&D I can imagine is long island to Philadelphia. Even then it only makes sense to fly on days when there are huge traffic jam. Even LGA to PHL is all connection traffic. So adding JFK-PHL will just be splitting connection traffic with LGA-PHL.

No clue what AA is doing here.

tphuang wrote:

Completely different cases. You can't drive in reasonable time from JFK to CLT.

It's a 2 hour drive to Philly from Penn Station. The only O&D I can imagine is long island to Philadelphia. Even then it only makes sense to fly on days when there are huge traffic jam. Even LGA to PHL is all connection traffic. So adding JFK-PHL will just be splitting connection traffic with LGA-PHL.

No clue what AA is doing here.

Presumably the same thing they're doing when they fly ABE-PHL, MDT-PHL, or BWI-PHL.

ETA: to be explicit, if they're already running significant connecting traffic out of JFK to other hubs (and I doubt 6x JFK-CLT + 12x LGA-CLT is all O&D) then it's an optimization issue whether some of that would be better served over PHL.

Jshank83 wrote:

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-STL APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>1.0

This one I find interesting. Not sure the last time STL-SFO was only once daily on United. It does happen to overlap when WN starts STL-SJC though. Also, it is mainline SFO->STL but RJ on the return. There are no mainline UA flight from STL to anywhere over the same time period so something has to change. Hopefully, they just add the 2nd flight back in.

May have had a hunch AS is hopping in. They have added almost every other similar sized midwest city in the past year.

OslPhlWasChi wrote:

enilria wrote:

jeffh747 wrote:

I think the AA PHL-JFK flight isn’t *worse* for anyone, it’s just giving NYC travelers better international options from their PHL hub. Delta has been flying the route (for the opposite- giving PHL travelers more options from JFK) with 757s on a thirty minute flight recently. AA has shifted a few flights from JFK where they can be better served out of PHL. Interesting as quite a few armchair CEO a.netters thought they would ditch the PHL hub for JFK.

I suspect it is intended to take intl traffic from PHL and start funneling it over JFK which is bad for PHL. There really is no business case for JFK-PHL-Anywhere.

Can you elaborate on why you think this is to take international traffic away from PHL?

I admittedly am more familiar with PHL than JFK but int'l traffic towards JFK seems counter to other recent moves by AA. AA dropped TATL destinations that are served by PHL (ex. MAN) and has transferred ZRH from JFK to PHL. Also they are adding new TATL destinatiosn at PHL (ex. PRG, BUD). In S18, there will be two TATL destinations served by JFK not at PHL (MXP & EDI) while PHL will have 12 TATL destinations not at JFK (AMS, MAN, MUC, ZRH, ATH, BUD, FRA, LIS, PRG, SNN, VCE). The other 6 TATL destinations served by JFK are also served by PHL (LHR, CDG, MAD, DUB, BCN, FCO). I too don't suspect this is anti-PHL or anti-JFK TATL. But connectivity between the two will open up connections for 2 new markets in JFK and 12 new markets in PHL.

Hit the nail right on the head. I couldn’t agree more. We’ve seen AA shift a couple of their TATL flights from JFK to PHL and have actually been increasing frequency since they replaced the second BA flight with an A330. Not exactly sure how they could funnel int’l traffic from PHL when AA serves a very similar number of int’l destinations from PHL. This move seems to benefit both airports as travelers in NYC can access destinations such as PRG, AMS and ATH on AA now on one ticket via PHL, and travelers in PHL have access to GIG, GRU, ANU and a couple others via the quick hop to JFK. Seems like a win-win for all involved. Very small, but very strategic addition.

stl07 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

enilria wrote:

UA SFO-STL APR 1.9>1.2 MAY 1.9>1.0

This one I find interesting. Not sure the last time STL-SFO was only once daily on United. It does happen to overlap when WN starts STL-SJC though. Also, it is mainline SFO->STL but RJ on the return. There are no mainline UA flight from STL to anywhere over the same time period so something has to change. Hopefully, they just add the 2nd flight back in.

May have had a hunch AS is hopping in. They have added almost every other similar sized midwest city in the past year.

So you are saying based on a "hunch" that a new competitor may add service, UA is decreasing frequency, despite the fact that when AS/VX added SFO-IND/MSY/BNA/e.t.c UA went 2x daily on each of those routes.... Why would a carrier decrease service if a new carrier is thinking of entering the market?

Sorry if I misinterpreted what you were saying?

Midwestindy wrote:

stl07 wrote:

Jshank83 wrote:

This one I find interesting. Not sure the last time STL-SFO was only once daily on United. It does happen to overlap when WN starts STL-SJC though. Also, it is mainline SFO->STL but RJ on the return. There are no mainline UA flight from STL to anywhere over the same time period so something has to change. Hopefully, they just add the 2nd flight back in.

May have had a hunch AS is hopping in. They have added almost every other similar sized midwest city in the past year.

So you are saying based on a "hunch" that a new competitor may add service, UA is decreasing frequency, despite the fact that when AS/VX added SFO-IND/MSY/BNA/e.t.c UA went 2x daily on each of those routes.... Why would a carrier decrease service if a new carrier is thinking of entering the market?

Sorry if I misinterpreted what you were saying?

Thanks for letting me know, I did not know they added in extra flights. I was thinking maybe because WN added 2 more flights to the bay area as well the prospect of AS adding service caused them to decide to give up rather than fight. Now that I have this additional piece of information, this is probably not the case, but hopefully, we find out soon why.