What is going on in eastern Virginia routes.


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I wouldn't be surprised if DL started RIC-SLC once the new terminal at SLC opens. RIC is an elite-heavy station with lots of 757s to ATL. I think the demand could be there with an A319.

As Alaska continues to growth out East, maybe one of these cities will get service to SEA, SFO or LAX.

WWads wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if DL started RIC-SLC once the new terminal at SLC opens. RIC is an elite-heavy station with lots of 757s to ATL. I think the demand could be there with an A319.

I could most definitely see that coming.

I also could See ORF-DEN added on UA.


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I could see Spirit adding seasonal LAS, TPA & RSW service from RIC.

wedgetail737 wrote:

As Alaska continues to growth out East, maybe one of these cities will get service to SEA, SFO or LAX.

...or SAN... For example, ORF-SAN is perhaps the largest unserved market out of both cities.

Someone will jump on it eventually and I'd love it to be AAG!

bb

SANFan wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

As Alaska continues to growth out East, maybe one of these cities will get service to SEA, SFO or LAX.

...or SAN... For example, ORF-SAN is perhaps the largest unserved market out of both cities.

Someone will jump on it eventually and I'd love it to be AAG!

bb

Yes ORF-SAN is a large navy route. I could see SWA on a 738 Or ua on a 752 maybe 2x a week frequency.


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WN may eventually add some more service out of RIC. STL or MDW comes to mind. DL to SLC from RIC is a definite possibility. UA from ORF to DEN should have already happened.

I think Spirit will add more service from RIC as I expect them to be very successful from RIC as Air Tran was before WN screwed the pooch. PHF will need a dedicated LCC like Air Tran to revitalize the market. I don't know if I see that happening anytime soon.

I could see DL starting DTW and/or LGA-PHF down the road with some type of CRJ.

And yea, RIC-SLC on DL and ORF-DEN on UA will come soon.

cpr05 wrote:

Yes ORF-SAN is a large navy route. I could see SWA on a 738 Or ua on a 752 maybe 2x a week frequency.

I wouldn't put money on UA, that's for sure. They don't do point-to-point. WN is a decent bet though, but I'm sure it would be on a -700 and less than daily.

ElroyJetson wrote:

WN may eventually add some more service out of RIC. STL or MDW comes to mind. DL to SLC from RIC is a definite possibility. UA from ORF to DEN should have already happened.

I think Spirit will add more service from RIC as I expect them to be very successful from RIC as Air Tran was before WN screwed the pooch. PHF will need a dedicated LCC like Air Tran to revitalize the market. I don't know if I see that happening anytime soon.

I think we've discussed in the DMV thread how overdue WN is for expansion in RIC. They really decimated the AirTran station after the merger. I think they'll add some routes when they're in a better position fleet wise. I definitely expect NK to expand in RIC. I think they'll do pretty well. RIC-Florida is always a reliable market. It would be nice to see AA add RIC-PHX, because I think that route could have been successful even if it were started by US. The market has been there for a while, and last I checked, both airports still have specific incentives for each other, so there would be subsidy on both ends. Maybe the UA route to DEN will spur some west coast competition. I firmly believe the demand is there to support at least four or five west coast routes from RIC.

atcsundevil wrote:

cpr05 wrote:

Yes ORF-SAN is a large navy route. I could see SWA on a 738 Or ua on a 752 maybe 2x a week frequency.

I wouldn't put money on UA, that's for sure. They don't do point-to-point. WN is a decent bet though, but I'm sure it would be on a -700 and less than daily.

Nor would I expect DL to start doing p2p flying from SAN either.

I don't know why folks are suggesting less than daily service; the last 2 quarters available on DOT's Table 1A show an average of 140 PDEW between SAN and ORF! That figure, btw, is quite consistent year-round. (And I'd bet a buck there's a good deal of leakage thru WAS for those in Norfolk wanting to fly nonstop to SAN.) This is why I keep calling for a nonstop, IMO, from either AS or WN. It's a large market with healthy traffic (plus I'd expect there's lots of freight and cargo that could be carried commercially between the 2 ports) even though it has to be fairly low-yield.

AS has made a success at their west coast So Cal focus city of starting service in unserved SAN markets dating back to 2010: OGG, PVR, FAT, MRY, STS, MCO, LIH, BOI, MMH, KOA, HDN, OMA, and MEX! (And not one of them has been dropped since they began!) ORF could most definitely be added to that list, IMO. Unfortunately, AS has let WN beat them to other unserved markets (e.g., most recently, TPA, MKE, IND, and GEG) so that's why I hope and expect either of these cx to start SAN-ORF one of these days.

bb

Will Spirit ever add nonstop service to DFW from RIC or will Southwest ever add nonstop service to DAL from RIC? Greater Richmond is the third largest market in the contiguous U.S. by population without any nonstop LCC service to Dallas after Louisville, KY and the Hampton Roads area in Virginia.

WWads wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if DL started RIC-SLC once the new terminal at SLC opens. RIC is an elite-heavy station with lots of 757s to ATL. I think the demand could be there with an A319.

If you mean by lots, 2 a day that operated over the summer schedule, and that no longer are operating...ok. Currently, the ATL-RIC route is served by MD80/MD90/B738/B739. The 757 schedule is partly loaded for spring/summer in RIC, showing one RON starting 26MAY18 on the ATL-RIC-ATL rotation, however after that weekend everything looks to be loaded currently as MD80/B738/B739.

I was pretty sure someone had a go at the SAN-ORF market, but it was like twice a week? I'm thinking that this was like maybe in the last ten years, I thought it was WN. Perhaps it was AirTran to PHF? In any case, the route, whoever operated or planned to operate it, the route didn't stick obviously.

As for RIC, I am certain that with UA upgrading the DEN flight to a A319, that DL with their loyal followers would gladly use a daily flight to SLC. That being said, I can see PHX doing well for AA also. It's just my opinion, however, I think that after JetBlue couldn't make JFK work, they pretty much gave up on RIC expanding more than just a North/South station (BOS/Florida). I can easily see them tapping into the west coast market from RIC a la BUF ops. A flight to LAX that would otherwise sit overnight at a gate. The other option I can see here is that the airport offers incentives to add international flights, which JetBlue could easily do on Saturdays to either the Carribean or to CUN/PVR etc when there is slack in the weekend schedule. Lastly, I'm surprised that G4 hasn't offered a LAS flight, if they don't jump on that, I'm sure NK will. In terms of capacity, I think RIC is underserved on some routes. RIC-MSP I always thought was a perfect candidate for the B717 as the DC9 operated that route with NW for years. I would not be surprised to see Delta try some of their point to point flying with RIC to places like BDL/PVD/IND/IND/AUS/MSY - remember RIC-RDU was one of the last flights operated with US on the J41. It's a fortune 500 city last I recal and plenty of money there on point to point flying with last minute high fare tickets.

As for ORF, it's a military city. With the US Navy offering training in Chicago to new recruits, there is one of the heaviest traffic flows from business/government tickets. I can easily see an expansion of NK or F9 (return) into the ORF or PHF markets.

The only other major one I can see is if UA really does want to expand their LAX operations, a possible flight from LAX to RIC/ORF.

Lastly, RIC/ORF are well within reach of a the B738-Max / A321Neo, and are ripe for international service by either WOW or Norwegian. My guess is Norwegian to DUB/ORK, time will tell.

Not to hijack the thread, but does anyone know when they will be expanding concourse A? last I heard it was supposed to be completed in 2018. I have been flying into CHO rather than RIC so I haven't been there in about a year or two.

atcsundevil wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

WN may eventually add some more service out of RIC. STL or MDW comes to mind. DL to SLC from RIC is a definite possibility. UA from ORF to DEN should have already happened.

I think Spirit will add more service from RIC as I expect them to be very successful from RIC as Air Tran was before WN screwed the pooch. PHF will need a dedicated LCC like Air Tran to revitalize the market. I don't know if I see that happening anytime soon.

I think we've discussed in the DMV thread how overdue WN is for expansion in RIC. They really decimated the AirTran station after the merger. I think they'll add some routes when they're in a better position fleet wise.

Southwest will have room at MDW to add MDW-RIC nonstop service after it discontinues service out of FNT on June 6, 2018, and Southwest will also be receiving additional 737-800 and 737 MAX 8 planes in 2018. In addition, Greater Richmond is the largest metropolitan area in the contiguous U.S. served by Southwest Airlines that has never had nonstop service to MDW on Southwest, and Chicago is also one of the top destinations from RIC according to the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report. Southwest would also be able to connect passengers to OMA, MSP, SLC, SEA, PDX, SFO, OAK, SJC, SMF, and other destinations west of MDW from RIC through MDW if it adds MDW-RIC nonstop service.

Awesome seeing a thread dedicated (at least in part) to my home airport of RIC. Normally when people on here talk about VA airports it's all about IAD and DCA. Some things I could see taking place at RIC are:

-Expansion of WN routes out of RIC. The fact that they have butchered the Air Tran presence at RIC as much as they have is unforgivable. STL, MDW and DEN are some markets that could give the pathetic single route to ATL some competition.

-When NK finally starts flights out of RIC to MCO and FLL in March it will be nice having another option but RIC is already gorging itself with Florida flights. Why MCO AND FLL? And why only afternoon flights? Why not morning flights to more centralized NK hubs such as DTW and DFW to encourage connections to the rest of the country?

-The single daily (4PM departure) UA flight to DEN was recently upgraded to an A319 (though they have sent A320s from time to time including the "Friendship A320" special livery back in November IINM) from an E175 however due to it's popularity I don't understand why they don't add a second daily flight in the morning. UA has this route all to themselves (unless WN wises up and jumps in as well) so the demand is certainly there. Maybe F9 could also finally expand to RIC and have flights to DEN to give UA some competition. RIC already loses so many locals to the airports up in DC because of the variety of airlines and routes that RIC simply doesn't have.

-The UA Express flight from RIC to IAH on an E-145? Pathetic. Are they really thinking that they wouldn't be able to fill a larger mainline jet? 3.5 hours on that plane must be painful.

jplatts wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

WN may eventually add some more service out of RIC. STL or MDW comes to mind. DL to SLC from RIC is a definite possibility. UA from ORF to DEN should have already happened.

I think Spirit will add more service from RIC as I expect them to be very successful from RIC as Air Tran was before WN screwed the pooch. PHF will need a dedicated LCC like Air Tran to revitalize the market. I don't know if I see that happening anytime soon.

I think we've discussed in the DMV thread how overdue WN is for expansion in RIC. They really decimated the AirTran station after the merger. I think they'll add some routes when they're in a better position fleet wise.

Southwest will have room at MDW to add MDW-RIC nonstop service after it discontinues service out of FNT on June 6, 2018, and Southwest will also be receiving additional 737-800 and 737 MAX 8 planes in 2018. In addition, Greater Richmond is the largest metropolitan area in the contiguous U.S. served by Southwest Airlines that has never had nonstop service to MDW on Southwest, and Chicago is also one of the top destinations from RIC according to the DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report. Southwest would also be able to connect passengers to OMA, MSP, SLC, SEA, PDX, SFO, OAK, SJC, SMF, and other destinations west of MDW from RIC through MDW if it adds MDW-RIC nonstop service.

Southwest could add MDW-RIC tomorro if it wanted. There is more than enough room and ending FNT needs nothing to do with the other.
As far as it looks to me, since RIC service hasn't changed since WN took over, I really would not be amazed to see it end by mid '19.

bluefltspecial wrote:

I was pretty sure someone had a go at the SAN-ORF market, but it was like twice a week? I'm thinking that this was like maybe in the last ten years, I thought it was WN. Perhaps it was AirTran to PHF? In any case, the route, whoever operated or planned to operate it, the route didn't stick obviously.

Nope, never been done by anyone. (Maybe it was talked about but it never happened.)

bluefltspecial wrote:

As for ORF, it's a military city. The only other major one I can see is if UA really does want to expand their LAX operations, a possible flight from LAX to RIC/ORF.

As I reported above, the traffic from 1Q17 and 2Q17 between SAN and ORF is right at 140 PDEW average over the 6 months.

Automatically, people seem to jump at LA because, well, it's LA.. ("If an airline is going to fly to the west coast from ORF, it's got to be to LA.")

The average pax for 1Q and 2Q between LAX and ORF was 102 PDEW. And since someone will mention SEA-ORF, since AS is being mentioned in the thread, SEA-ORF was 90 PDEW for the same period. (But of course if it would take starting SEA-ORF in order to get AS to fly SAN-ORF, fine with me, but unnecessary!)

I will again state that I'm sure SAN is the largest unserved market from ORF, and if not THE largest from SAN, then ORF is certainly in the top 2 or3. And I'm the first to say that just being the largest unserved market in a city pair doesn't mean anything if the traffic is not significant; however, I believe 140 PDEW is a significant and very viable pax count..

bb

When WN opened ORF they did do a r/t ORF-LAS-SAN with a -700. Not sure why that got dropped, always thought it was a excellent route

I’d really like to see some international service. Possibly NAX on MAX8 or WOW air. Iceland and Ireland.


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roadpilot wrote:

When WN opened ORF they did do a r/t ORF-LAS-SAN with a -700. Not sure why that got dropped, always thought it was a excellent route

I'm of course talking about nonstop service but I do believe you're right about what WN did, and I don't think it was even a r/t offering. That is perhaps what blueflight' was remembering. And it's quite possible that there has been other 1-stop/direct service in the market over the years. But never a nonstop.

bb

roadpilot wrote:

When WN opened ORF they did do a r/t ORF-LAS-SAN with a -700. Not sure why that got dropped, always thought it was a excellent route

Over a relatively short span of time, WN cut a large number of nonstop destinations from ORF in th early 2010s - some of which even operated twice a day like JAX for oh, probably a decade or so. It seemed it was like poof and BNA, FLL, JAX, TPA and LAS were gone (I think they may have even had service to ISP and ATL). Unfortunately nowadays it feels like WN mostly operates like a legacy airline, trying to funnel as much traffic through hubs (versus short hops between secondary markets like they used to).

I am really surprised B6 hasn’t entered ORF. Not sure what’s keeping them away. They let DL capture the nonstop from BOS which I believe was one of the largest (if not the largest) unserved route out of BOS until DL started the nonstop a couple months ago.

G4 tried and gave up on RIC-JAX. I am also a bit surprised they didn’t try that route out of ORF. I think JAX would have a better chance of success from ORF than RIC.

I've wondered if we might see some combination of G4/F9/NK on RIC/ORF-MSY. Both routes are unserved and 60-70 PDEW and growing with relatively high fares. NK and F9 could do one stops or connections to the west to help fill seats.

msycajun wrote:

I've wondered if we might see some combination of G4/F9/NK on RIC/ORF-MSY. Both routes are unserved and 60-70 PDEW and growing with relatively high fares. NK and F9 could do one stops or connections to the west to help fill seats.

I could most definitely see NKS taking orf to MSY or DFW in the near future.


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WN hasn't really made any moves in RIC. Given ORF is a legacy station, most adds have been to ORF. I can't see them cut orf to give RIC any adds.

At RIC
NK, should do well in RIC.
UA, I can see a second DEN daily seasonally with a morning mainline.
DL, probably add a Cr7/e75 to SLC
AA, no changes, more right sizing flows
B6, no changes other than an upgauged
G4, no changes, going into ORF reduces RIC demand.

For PHF, I don't see anything happening.

About ten years ago, ORF nearly did get transatlantic service on Monarch from Kent, UK. The flights were scheduled to start in the Spring of 2007. Obviously this never happened but it would have been interesting to see something regularly park at ORF's gate 1, the only int'l gate. Anyone else remember this?

Regarding PHF, I think there is a good opportunity for growth there. The demise of AirTran really hurt PHF.