usflyer msp wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

LMAO I love rumor threads like this... always start by claiming someone gave them insider, confidential info, then they spread it on here.

I can see how this could maybe happen but its such a long shot, and come on claiming your friend at UA gave you this? Laughable.

Indeed, the low and mid-level level UA staff would find out about things like this at the same time the public does. They have no insider info...

100% agree. Even consultants that work with C-Suite have no idea... Nobody has a clue other than those in charge...

American 767 wrote:

This is not the first time that we see this happening, we have seen other airlines choosing Star over OW before[...]

Well observed. The late Qualiflier alliance led by Swissair/Swiss (wikipedia is your friend) had been closely leaning towards OneWorld. But the nasty and dirty business practices executed by British Airways had completely destroyed that relationship.

legacyins wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star. One reason this may not happen is that Star has way too many airlines in the Star among them CX frenemy Singapore Airlines. Doubtful that BA/IB would leave OW for Star since they have a huge JV with American Airlines and Lufthansa has a JV with United. IT is so unlikely the EU would let BA/IB + LH and AA + UA in the same alliance. Cathay works well in the OW alliance especially with all its flights to the UK, Australia and the USA.

Your contradicting yourself. In your first post , you stated if your wondered if BA would leave OW and now you are saying they will not. This thread should be locked without a linked source.

This is my first post. I don't know where I said BA was leaving OW ? That would be absolutely absurd. The only possible scenario for BA to leave OW would be if OW where to close.

jfk777 wrote:

legacyins wrote:

jfk777 wrote:

The reason it could be believable is that Air China is a large Cathay shareholder and is in Star. One reason this may not happen is that Star has way too many airlines in the Star among them CX frenemy Singapore Airlines. Doubtful that BA/IB would leave OW for Star since they have a huge JV with American Airlines and Lufthansa has a JV with United. IT is so unlikely the EU would let BA/IB + LH and AA + UA in the same alliance. Cathay works well in the OW alliance especially with all its flights to the UK, Australia and the USA.

Your contradicting yourself. In your first post , you stated if your wondered if BA would leave OW and now you are saying they will not. This thread should be locked without a linked source.

This is my first post. I don't know where I said BA was leaving OW ? That would be absolutely absurd. The only possible scenario for BA to leave OW would be if OW where to close.

My apologies, I misquoted you when I should have the OP. I concur with you that the pillar of OW, BA, would be absurd to leave OW. There also is no basis for CX to leave OW and join the *A. As quoted above, they need to be invited first.

coolfish1103 wrote:

HPAEAA wrote:

Does Guangzhou make up that much of CX's premium traffic? From what i understand the boarder crossing can be quite difficult & time consuming... While CX might be upset about AA entering the HKG market & potential addition of a Chinese carrier (china southern) into the alliance I don't see this playing out based on the game theory... CX has a far superior premium product & will continue to attract the business traveler via corporate traffic, by switching form the largest US carrier to the 3rd, to attract the connecting flow to one more spoke in their network doesn't make a lot of sense.

Anyone who travels South of Guangzhou, particularly from Dongguan and Zhongshan, will choose to exit via Hong Kong or Macau via ferry, train or auto.

The traveling time from Baiyun Airport to these locations starts from 2 hours. Shenzhen, Zhuhai and other places would be 4-5 hours. Hong Kong Airport itself provides ferry to some of these places and some goes via auto would take max 2 hours with the immigration and customs included.

I know a lot of people from CAN area who would rather go HKG simply because it took then ~2hr road journey to get to CAN each way and they only have a limited choices, while HKG offers far more choices to fare more destinations. So yes it may sound a bit stretched, but they sure go to HKG. And border crossing for then (residents in Guangdong Province) is among the easiest in the whole Mainland China - many of them have a multi-trip pass that all they need to do (from my understanding) is to scan through the self-serve machine and you're good to go.

And, there's a reason why KA flies 2x daily to CAN.....
Michael

I'm not sure I would read into the launch of IAD as a sign CX is looking to leave OW. I look at it as connecting HKG with city that has O&D demand and a large population of AA frequent flyers due to the hub at DCA. Many of whom used AA and QR to reach Asia previously.

Huh?

You realized that CAN and HKG are MUCH further apart than DAL vs DFW or BWI vs DCA, right?

The equivalent of those comparison would be HKG vs SZX, NOT HKG vs CAN.

Think SFO to SMF (86mi) when it comes to HKG to CAN (85mi). HKG and CAN are far enough that there are actually schedule flights between the two (Yes, only 2/day, and yes, it's pretty much for connection only. But hey, only 3 flights per day between SFO and SMF also).

And size of population. Guangzhou Urban Area alone has 11.5M people (Municipal limit-wise it's 14M). Its neighbor to the south, Shenzhen, is at 10.9M. Hong Kong by itself is 7.3M. There's still Dongguan (between Shenzhen and Guangzhou) that has 8.2M people. And I didn't even count Foshan (7.2M people). The whole greater DFW metroplex (CSA) only has 7.35M people, while Baltimore-Washington CSA is at 9.5M. That's what? 30% of the population?[/quote]



Population does not matter, number of flyers does....- look at the % of people who fly, then the numbers look completely different.
CX will not want to see passengers looking at CZ and CAN as an alternative to HKG- CX does not just serve HKG passengers- they are still the largest international airline in Asia...

by your logic- QF should be jumping with joy if VA decides to join OW!

or SQ should be welcoming MH with Champagne if it decided to join Star!!!

This rumor has been drifting around for sometime and seems to resurface each time CX adds anything related to Star. IAD is a logical decision to continue adding capacity to the east coast of NA which has been one of the strongest regions in the network over the past few years. Cathay isn't leaving OW anytime soon.

RL777 wrote:

This rumor has been drifting around for sometime and seems to resurface each time CX adds anything related to Star. IAD is a logical decision to continue adding capacity to the east coast of NA which has been one of the strongest regions in the network over the past few years. Cathay isn't leaving OW anytime soon.

People keep thinking CX cannot sustain its routes without its OW partners... hence whenever CX launches a star route people think they will switch.

How about give CX some credit- every route they fly except Dubai, they are the dominant player....regardless of alliance

OW needs CX more than CX needs OW

Kashmon wrote:

Huh?

You realized that CAN and HKG are MUCH further apart than DAL vs DFW or BWI vs DCA, right?

The equivalent of those comparison would be HKG vs SZX, NOT HKG vs CAN.

Think SFO to SMF (86mi) when it comes to HKG to CAN (85mi). HKG and CAN are far enough that there are actually schedule flights between the two (Yes, only 2/day, and yes, it's pretty much for connection only. But hey, only 3 flights per day between SFO and SMF also).

And size of population. Guangzhou Urban Area alone has 11.5M people (Municipal limit-wise it's 14M). Its neighbor to the south, Shenzhen, is at 10.9M. Hong Kong by itself is 7.3M. There's still Dongguan (between Shenzhen and Guangzhou) that has 8.2M people. And I didn't even count Foshan (7.2M people). The whole greater DFW metroplex (CSA) only has 7.35M people, while Baltimore-Washington CSA is at 9.5M. That's what? 30% of the population?



Population does not matter, number of flyers does....- look at the % of people who fly, then the numbers look completely different.
CX will not want to see passengers looking at CZ and CAN as an alternative to HKG- CX does not just serve HKG passengers- they are still the largest international airline in Asia...

by your logic- QF should be jumping with joy if VA decides to join OW!

or SQ should be welcoming MH with Champagne if it decided to join Star!!!

Oh well...the whole argument is mooted if CZ doesn't even leave Skyteam anyway (Even though that's more likely than CX jumping ship).

On the other hand, at least right now CZ and CX are having two different route structure - CX as a global airline while CZ is more China domestic focus. They do overlap on Kangaroo route a little bit, but chasing after different pax (CX compete with SQ for the "high yield business type" pax, CZ go for bargain bin fare). TPAC long-haul from CZ is mostly O/D from CAN just b/c they simply doesn't have CX's regional network (to SE Asia and especially India) to get the global pax.

BTW, I wonder where the OP is. Created the post and haven't seen him (or her) afterward

Cathay is very important for OW in Asia for many reasons, perhaps the most important that after JAL OW really doesn't have another strong airline in Asia. Malaysia Air is in OW but can't decide what it wants o be. Qantas is too far south to be a force in Asia, its great to Australia.

Star is like a family with too many children, in Asia they have too many first rate airlines. ANA, EVA, Asiana, Singapore, Thai & Air China, its like an all star convention. I want Star aliances Asia problems.

IF Cathay did go to Star what would it bring to the table they don't already have ? That is the question ?

This would be the Most Amazing thing Ever!!! It would really work great with UA and Star Alliance. CX is an amazing product! I don't think they would ever leave OW. SQ really doesn't act as a strong partner in Star and CX would be a much better contributor. UA has a much larger presence than AA at HKG, a codeshare can work great!! CX is starting at IAD! UA needs to stop downplaying IAD and stop treating it like a ugly stepsister to EWR. IAD can have allStar carriers under one roof while it would be impossible at Ewr so they need to split it between EWr and Jfk due to space and AtC. I do see potential for EvA and Asiana to start IAd. UA can really make it a great connecting hub if they really want to!!!I said for the longest time that once OW/AA partners CX and/or JAL start IAD, it would spell trouble for UA! It will attract loyal AA/OW members who use DCA as their domestic hub (much closer to D.C.) and use IAD as their int'l hub by using CX to Asia and BA for Europe. CX has a great and a superior product to UA to Asia. UA needs to upgrade their C/D terminal at IAD and should use a retrofitted Polaris configuration on their IAD-NRT route before CX launches in May. They should also add a PVG route using a 787. Also the UA club is an eye soar compared to the BA lounge in the B terminal that CX will be using.

staralliance85 wrote:

This would be the Most Amazing thing Ever!!! It would really work great with UA and Star Alliance. CX is an amazing product! I don't think they would ever leave OW. SQ really doesn't act as a strong partner in Star and CX would be a much better contributor. UA has a much larger presence than AA at HKG, a codeshare can work great!! CX is starting at IAD! UA needs to stop downplaying IAD and stop treating it like a ugly stepsister to EWR. IAD can have allStar carriers under one roof while it would be impossible at Ewr so they need to split it between EWr and Jfk due to space and AtC. I do see potential for EvA and Asiana to start IAd. UA can really make it a great connecting hub if they really want to!!!I said for the longest time that once OW/AA partners CX and/or JAL start IAD, it would spell trouble for UA! It will attract loyal AA/OW members who use DCA as their domestic hub (much closer to D.C.) and use IAD as their int'l hub by using CX to Asia and BA for Europe. CX has a great and a superior product to UA to Asia. UA needs to upgrade their C/D terminal at IAD and should use a retrofitted Polaris configuration on their IAD-NRT route before CX launches in May. They should also add a PVG route using a 787. Also the UA club is an eye soar compared to the BA lounge in the B terminal that CX will be using.

SQ probably fits into OW better than Star, as it was rumoured that they wanted to join OW back then but CX got in first.

jfk777 wrote:

Cathay is very important for OW in Asia for many reasons, perhaps the most important that after JAL OW really doesn't have another strong airline in Asia. Malaysia Air is in OW but can't decide what it wants o be. Qantas is too far south to be a force in Asia, its great to Australia.

Star is like a family with too many children, in Asia they have too many first rate airlines. ANA, EVA, Asiana, Singapore, Thai & Air China, its like an all star convention. I want Star aliances Asia problems.

IF Cathay did go to Star what would it bring to the table they don't already have ? That is the question ?

If CZ joins OW, then it will be a much more important carrier than Cathay. Cathay in the past few years have been losing its market share to the mainland carriers for the mass market crowd and Taiwanese airlines which have upgraded their premium products substantially.

You lost me at Quantas.

usflyer msp wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

LMAO I love rumor threads like this... always start by claiming someone gave them insider, confidential info, then they spread it on here.

I can see how this could maybe happen but its such a long shot, and come on claiming your friend at UA gave you this? Laughable.

Indeed, the low and mid-level level UA staff would find out about things like this at the same time the public does. They have no insider info...

I wouldn't go so far as to say that low and mid level staff at any airline would only find out at the time the public does. It depends on who you know and what they're willing to share with you. That said, if you do happen across information before any company officially announces its better to be vague, omit your sources or simply wait. Publicly announcing something in advance can land someone in the unemployment line.

77H

ldvaviation wrote:

toxtethogrady wrote:

If this is indeed confirmed, I guess we can dust off those rumors of IAH-HKG...

It has NOT been confirmed.

In many ways, it makes no sense.

That's an entirely different discussion. The aviation industry has been given to making any number of seemingly nonsensical business decisions.

This is one of the most laughable threads! Ha!! 'Quantas' leaving OW? BA/IB leaving OW? Ha!!

77H wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

nmdrdh787 wrote:

LMAO I love rumor threads like this... always start by claiming someone gave them insider, confidential info, then they spread it on here.

I can see how this could maybe happen but its such a long shot, and come on claiming your friend at UA gave you this? Laughable.

Indeed, the low and mid-level level UA staff would find out about things like this at the same time the public does. They have no insider info...

I wouldn't go so far as to say that low and mid level staff at any airline would only find out at the time the public does. It depends on who you know and what they're willing to share with you. That said, if you do happen across information before any company officially announces its better to be vague, omit your sources or simply wait. Publicly announcing something in advance can land someone in the unemployment line.

77H

Low and mid-level employees do not have relationships with the execs that make these decisions. You would get better info from an airline execs frat brother or neighbour than a low/mid level airline employee.

jfk777 wrote:

IF Cathay did go to Star what would it bring to the table they don't already have ? That is the question ?

Partners that actually give a damn about working with CX, which is the same reason CZ is leaving ST.

Dear Cheops/flydude380, QF is spelt QANTAS. Cheers 325i

flydude380 wrote:

This is one of the most laughable threads! Ha!! 'Quantas' leaving OW? BA/IB leaving OW? Ha!!

Totally agree with you

325i wrote:

Dear Cheops/flydude380, QF is spelt QANTAS. Cheers 325i

I obviously know that. If you read the OPs post properly and read the sarcasm in my post, you'd understand why I wrote Quantas -__-

Qantas16 wrote:

AA747123 wrote:

A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance. Interesting news, wonder if BA/IB will join them at Star? I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well

If you can't even spell Qantas correctly, I'm very skeptical. Also if you think BA/IB would leave OW, you clearly know very little about the dynamics of any of the alliances.

All those orthographic mistakes in his post and you decide to go after his misspelling of Qantas? Oy vey...

AA747123 wrote:

I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well

Quantas, The Sprite of Austailia.

V/F

AA747123 wrote:

A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance. Interesting news, wonder if BA/IB will join them at Star? I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well

No, BA won't be leaving OneWorld along with Qantas. They are the other founding members so they won't be leaving for Star Alliance and yet, for example: Air NZ is operating the Star Alliance for UA already for the flight between US and Australia/NZ while AA with BA/IB between USA and Europe.

SQ789 wrote:

AA747123 wrote:

A friend of mine who works for UA at IAD, just got out of a high level meeting with senior management from UA, and he was told on the launch of CX at IAD that CX will leave OneWorld for Star Alliance. Interesting news, wonder if BA/IB will join them at Star? I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well

No, BA won't be leaving OneWorld along with Qantas. They are the other founding members so they won't be leaving for Star Alliance and yet, for example: Air NZ is operating the Star Alliance for UA already for the flight between US and Australia/NZ while AA with BA/IB between USA and Europe.

so just because they are founding member they won't leave

Yet CX also a founding member will leave?

this thread is hilarious

Honestly think the emphasis on alliances is more here than with the airlines. There’s been very little movement in the alliances over the past few years. The fact that Aer Lingus isn’t joining OW kind of says how much importance IAG is placing on the entire alliance programs and I think that’s of indicative of many airlines.

VirginFlyer wrote:

AA747123 wrote:

I could see Quantas leafing OW as well given UA significant presents in Austailia as well

Quantas, The Sprite of Austailia.

V/F

Let me fix that for you, Quaintass, The Spite of Austria.

Cathay, JAL and AA plus Qantas need a Pacific JV.

I would think that if CX goes anywhere, it will be SkyTeam. Garuda Indonesia and Vietnam are decent in their regions, but CX is a global powerhouse for SE Asia that SkyTeam could really use. Star already has several airlines that offer the same credentials CX does.

CX fulfills a great need in the OW network, connecting to SE Asia and India from the West. Until CZ can build the international route structure that rivals CX, these 2 airlines will have vastly different business models. However, with CX seemingly struggling today, I'm not sure CZ in OW will benefit CX at all. Perhaps a move will be beneficial.

Since it's been mentioned, I've done the HK <> Mainland border crossing dozens of times and it's always very easy. If coming from Dongguan or Guangzhou by train into Hung Holm Station, the lines can get a bit long, but they move much faster than, say, the dreaded lines at JFK. Coming by bus or hired car at any of the road crossings the lines are negligible. Ditto if you take the ferry. Lines are longer at rush hour since people do live on one side of the border and work on the other, but even then it isn't bad.

Personally, I'd love it if CX joined *A since I use *A exclusively due to miles. I could see there being stirrings of forbidden love in the dark recesses CX's heart if CZ does xfer to OW. But no way is SQ (or BR, who are only now starting to be recognized by GenPop as having a quality product) gonna allow that. Fugetaboutit, as our brothers and sisters in Queens would say.

usflyer msp wrote:

77H wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

Indeed, the low and mid-level level UA staff would find out about things like this at the same time the public does. They have no insider info...

I wouldn't go so far as to say that low and mid level staff at any airline would only find out at the time the public does. It depends on who you know and what they're willing to share with you. That said, if you do happen across information before any company officially announces its better to be vague, omit your sources or simply wait. Publicly announcing something in advance can land someone in the unemployment line.

77H

Low and mid-level employees do not have relationships with the execs that make these decisions. You would get better info from an airline execs frat brother or neighbour than a low/mid level airline employee.

Executive secretaries usually know most stuff. They are also highly unlikely to spill the beans. Ever.

Best regards
Thomas

MLIAA wrote:

I would think that if CX goes anywhere, it will be SkyTeam. Garuda Indonesia and Vietnam are decent in their regions, but CX is a global powerhouse for SE Asia that SkyTeam could really use. Star already has several airlines that offer the same credentials CX does.

CX fulfills a great need in the OW network, connecting to SE Asia and India from the West. Until CZ can build the international route structure that rivals CX, these 2 airlines will have vastly different business models. However, with CX seemingly struggling today, I'm not sure CZ in OW will benefit CX at all. Perhaps a move will be beneficial.

There's CI also for SE Asia flow. KE for NE Asia, MU and (for now)CZ for China, and CZ also for SE Asia, in addition to VN and GA, there are not necessarily any space for CX in Skyteam anyway.

Socrates17 wrote:

Since it's been mentioned, I've done the HK <> Mainland border crossing dozens of times and it's always very easy. If coming from Dongguan or Guangzhou by train into Hung Holm Station, the lines can get a bit long, but they move much faster than, say, the dreaded lines at JFK. Coming by bus or hired car at any of the road crossings the lines are negligible. Ditto if you take the ferry. Lines are longer at rush hour since people do live on one side of the border and work on the other, but even then it isn't bad.

Personally, I'd love it if CX joined *A since I use *A exclusively due to miles. I could see there being stirrings of forbidden love in the dark recesses CX's heart if CZ does xfer to OW. But no way is SQ (or BR, who are only now starting to be recognized by GenPop as having a quality product) gonna allow that. Fugetaboutit, as our brothers and sisters in Queens would say.

Meh...if it's that long those Day Trippers buying up all the daily goods in HK wouldn't be able to make like 5 trips a day . If anything, though, it's hindering CZ's long-haul network, since HKG offered a lot more long-haul flights compared to CAN (I don't bothered with SZX, it's good for Chinese domestic flight only for the most part anyway).

But Hung Hom is the really long way to get to HKG, though. Shenzhen Bay crossing is much closer (well, that and the ferry).

How is this thread even going still? Incredible.

9w748capt wrote:

How is this thread even going still? Incredible.

The bigger thing I wonder is where in the world is the OP after he/she makes the initial post

Topic has been widely discussed and until something real turns out it will be locked.