Interesting... I cannot open the full length as it requires a subscription...

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... xico-rincn

Avianca is really spreading it's wings! What is next, United becoming Avianca America?

No surprise. Synergy Group purchased 49% stake in Aeromar last year and piggybacking on the Avianca branding likely a good move.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1347737

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

Avianca has a codeshare agreement with Aeromexico. I wonder if this would lead Avianca to end it?

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

I wonder how much of a fight Avianca Mexico would be able to put up. Aeromar currently operates an ATR turboprop-only fleet and serves very few destinations (the only international destination is McAllen Texas). If Avianca Holdings shifted some of the upcoming A320neo family order onto the new Mexico subsidiary, I think they could prove to be an effective competitor, but as it stands Aeromar serves mostly smaller markets with turboprops and I don't think that's something Avianca can effectively exploit. I wonder if this will eventually lead to the transformation of Aeromar into a 2 class airline? Could they operate long-haul routes (obviously not as risky as stuff like AM's Seoul service, but more focused on Madrid, Chile + Argentina) or is that something Avianca historically doesn't do with its subsidiaries?

If some of the A320neos due to Avianca are shifted to Aeromar, I would expect that the first destinations would be to Bogota on its own metal as well as LAX, SFO, IAH, ORD, IAD, and EWR (using the United codeshare). This would also help out All Nippon Airways, who could rely on connecting traffic into Mexico City.

jubguy3 wrote:

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

I wonder how much of a fight Avianca Mexico would be able to put up. Aeromar currently operates an ATR turboprop-only fleet and serves very few destinations (the only international destination is McAllen Texas). If Avianca Holdings shifted some of the upcoming A320neo family order onto the new Mexico subsidiary, I think they could prove to be an effective competitor, but as it stands Aeromar serves mostly smaller markets with turboprops and I don't think that's something Avianca can effectively exploit. I wonder if this will eventually lead to the transformation of Aeromar into a 2 class airline? Could they operate long-haul routes (obviously not as risky as stuff like AM's Seoul service, but more focused on Madrid, Chile + Argentina) or is that something Avianca historically doesn't do with its subsidiaries?

I believe it is a big possibility. How useful would an airline like Aeromar be to Synergy group? I think it can provide AV with good connections out of MEX (Would VW switch operations to T1?), but why stopping there if there is a good growth potential. If I remember correctly, AV transferred an A330 to Taca Perú before the merger. I do not know if it is still based in LIM, though. I am not saying AV will give VW an A330, but it may well provide a couple of A320s (neo or not)

Yikes.

Fourth fiddle in Brazil and fourth fiddle in Mexico. Absolutely zero service in the dense, must-be-in markets when AM is earning 6% margins and Interjet still isn’t making money and probably won’t ever (the same history of many Mexican airlines). I’d say unless AA develops a deep codeshare, but hey, that’s been done before with MX. Maybe AV can buy out 40. I’d say that had a decent enough chance to be a strong second to AM.

I’d say the biggest opportunity probably lies with United. VW is big enough in the Gulf Coast oil markets, but that still seems like a bridge too far for Synergies (pun intended).

Are there any rumblings that O6 would develop any sort of partnership with AD?

And any early (informed) predictions on what this means to the CM-UA agreement? I forget when it expires, but I’m sure there are termination clauses for this sort of thing.

Is VW still in T2 at MEX? Maybe VB can get kicked across the runways. I’m sure that’d play well.

jetero wrote:

Fourth fiddle in Brazil and fourth fiddle in Mexico. Absolutely zero service in the dense, must-be-in markets when AM is earning 6% margins and Interjet still isn’t making money and probably won’t ever (the same history of many Mexican airlines). I’d say unless AA develops a deep codeshare, but hey, that’s been done before with MX. Maybe AV can buy out 40. I’d say that had a decent enough chance to be a strong second to AM.

I was thinking just that. It is not possible to know how Interjet is doing since they do not disclose their financial information quarterly and annually. Maybe AV could acquire 49% of them and merge the two carriers in order to gain all those A320s. The aircraft could be progressively converted to 2-class planes. Interesting times ahead. Before we start speculating, though, we must remember that a 51% local investor is needed, and that the investment in Aeromar was not made by Avianca Holdings but rather by its parent Synergy, and Synergy's and Avianca Holdings' interests may not be aligned.

jetero wrote:

And any early (informed) predictions on what this means to the CM-UA agreement? I forget when it expires, but I’m sure there are termination clauses for this sort of thing.

UA-CM agreement expires in 2021, as it was renewed on 2016.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/CPA/4165665116x0x938673/88904F53-58EA-4488-B42B-4BB2279833A9/2016AR_As_Filed_20F.PDF

My predictions for the CM-UA agreement? I would say it will be business as usual as they have antitrust immunity from the DOT. Also they expanded their code shares considerably at the end of 2016 and again during May of 2017.

Also, if we consider that John Gebo (Senior Vice President, Alliances from UA) is in the board of directors of Copa, as well as Mr. Andrew C. Levy (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of UA) , looks like the relationship between CM and UA are o.k.

Kilgen wrote:

jetero wrote:

And any early (informed) predictions on what this means to the CM-UA agreement? I forget when it expires, but I’m sure there are termination clauses for this sort of thing.

UA-CM agreement expires in 2021, as it was renewed on 2016.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/CPA/4165665116x0x938673/88904F53-58EA-4488-B42B-4BB2279833A9/2016AR_As_Filed_20F.PDF

My predictions for the CM-UA agreement? I would say it will be business as usual as they have antitrust immunity from the DOT. Also they expanded their code shares considerably at the end of 2016 and again during May of 2017.

Also, if we consider that John Gebo (Senior Vice President, Alliances from UA) is in the board of directors of Copa, as well as Mr. Andrew C. Levy (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of UA) , looks like the relationship between CM and UA are o.k.

Thanks for the above.

jubguy3 wrote:

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

I wonder how much of a fight Avianca Mexico would be able to put up. Aeromar currently operates an ATR turboprop-only fleet and serves very few destinations (the only international destination is McAllen Texas). If Avianca Holdings shifted some of the upcoming A320neo family order onto the new Mexico subsidiary, I think they could prove to be an effective competitor, but as it stands Aeromar serves mostly smaller markets with turboprops and I don't think that's something Avianca can effectively exploit. I wonder if this will eventually lead to the transformation of Aeromar into a 2 class airline? Could they operate long-haul routes (obviously not as risky as stuff like AM's Seoul service, but more focused on Madrid, Chile + Argentina) or is that something Avianca historically doesn't do with its subsidiaries?

Did they get rid of their RJ? They used to fly it on a ridiculously uncompetitive service to AUS. The only benefit it offered was that it was, at the time, the only nonstop between AUS and MEX. The times were awful (nearly every connection beyond MEX required an overnight stay on the way back), and the fare was as much — or more — than connecting flights on AA or UA. AM returned to AUS pretty much the the second they left and is doing much better.

It would be good to have a full fare competitor to AM, but it wouldn’t be terribly easy to do if they want to keep their base of ops at MEX since the airport so so slot restricted.

khowaga wrote:

jubguy3 wrote:

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

I wonder how much of a fight Avianca Mexico would be able to put up. Aeromar currently operates an ATR turboprop-only fleet and serves very few destinations (the only international destination is McAllen Texas). If Avianca Holdings shifted some of the upcoming A320neo family order onto the new Mexico subsidiary, I think they could prove to be an effective competitor, but as it stands Aeromar serves mostly smaller markets with turboprops and I don't think that's something Avianca can effectively exploit. I wonder if this will eventually lead to the transformation of Aeromar into a 2 class airline? Could they operate long-haul routes (obviously not as risky as stuff like AM's Seoul service, but more focused on Madrid, Chile + Argentina) or is that something Avianca historically doesn't do with its subsidiaries?

Did they get rid of their RJ? They used to fly it on a ridiculously uncompetitive service to AUS. The only benefit it offered was that it was, at the time, the only nonstop between AUS and MEX. The times were awful (nearly every connection beyond MEX required an overnight stay on the way back), and the fare was as much — or more — than connecting flights on AA or UA. AM returned to AUS pretty much the the second they left and is doing much better.

It would be good to have a full fare competitor to AM, but it wouldn’t be terribly easy to do if they want to keep their base of ops at MEX since the airport so so slot restricted.

Yes they got rid of their RJs. They only operate ATR 42s and 72s of different configurations. The only international service is to McAllen TX

Would they even have room to grow at MEX?

EddieDude wrote:

It is not possible to know how Interjet is doing since they do not disclose their financial information quarterly and annually.

Interjet's financials can be found here: https://www.interjet.com/en-us/offers/i ... tions.aspx

It is important to remember that this is not Avianca Holdings buying Aeromar, but Synergy. While they are related, they are different legal entities with, as of late, some bad blood between them, including lawsuits flying around.

I am sure the plan for Mexico is similar to the plan Synergy has for its Argentina franchise: start playing in the regional space, where there is plenty of low hanging fruit. Mexico's market, being larger, has a more developed regional sector than Argentina.

Sad to see another national airline disappearing and another generic brand assuming.
I believe the world will have only one airline at some point, just because all the others were being merged

Tough market as domestically there is already Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus fighting it out as LCC and then Aeromexico as well. What I notice about Aeromar is it starts a route but then it could disappear within weeks. Example GDL-ZLO last year. Makes it tough to plan trips in advance. Also, it has only one US destination, MFE.

Aeromar had service from TUS to HMO (Tucson AZ USA to Hermosillo Sonora MEX).
They began around Oct 3, 2016, but these routes no longer exists..

ODwyerPW wrote:

Aeromar had service from TUS to HMO (Tucson AZ USA to Hermosillo Sonora MEX).
They began around Oct 3, 2016, but these routes no longer exists..

AUS at one point too IIRC.

slickvik wrote:

Tough market as domestically there is already Interjet, Volaris, and VivaAerobus fighting it out as LCC and then Aeromexico as well. What I notice about Aeromar is it starts a route but then it could disappear within weeks. Example GDL-ZLO last year. Makes it tough to plan trips in advance. Also, it has only one US destination, MFE.

They have served MFE (McAllen, TX) for 5 years now. They also served San Luis Potosí- McAllen for about a year. Hopefully we see them stay at MFE as Avianca!

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

= Yet, people still seem to flock to Aeromexico in Mexico? Mexico has some of the strongest competition with 4 major carriers. AM has a cost disadvantage (by a fair margin - can one of the Mexicans confirm?), and yet still manages to have higher yields and be the most profitable Mexican airline in 2017. Come on, you may have a personal bias, but clearly AM is doing something right? AM arguably has the strongest management team in Mexico filled with both Mexican and foreign talent, and I'd bet they are holding their own. To be fair, network planning could take far more risks.

jetero wrote:

Yikes.

Fourth fiddle in Brazil and fourth fiddle in Mexico. Absolutely zero service in the dense, must-be-in markets when AM is earning 6% margins and Interjet still isn’t making money and probably won’t ever (the same history of many Mexican airlines). I’d say unless AA develops a deep codeshare, but hey, that’s been done before with MX. Maybe AV can buy out 40. I’d say that had a decent enough chance to be a strong second to AM.

= Agreed 100%.

Saludos,
Alex

dcajet wrote:

It is important to remember that this is not Avianca Holdings buying Aeromar, but Synergy. While they are related, they are different legal entities with, as of late, some bad blood between them, including lawsuits flying around.

I am sure the plan for Mexico is similar to the plan Synergy has for its Argentina franchise: start playing in the regional space, where there is plenty of low hanging fruit. Mexico's market, being larger, has a more developed regional sector than Argentina.

Your first staetement is not entirely accurate. Although Avianca Holdings and Syngergy are different legal entities, there is certainly no bad blood between them. There is bad blood and lawsuits flying around between Kingsland Holdings, the minority shareholder of Avianca Holdings, and Synergy, the majority shareholder.

This is important to point out as it should not be perceived that AV Holdings is in some kind of struggle with its major shareholder or the other Avianca branded entities (Brazil, Argentina and now Mexico). In fact, Efromovich envisions merging them all into one sole entity at some point, with preliminary due diligence for the merger of Avianca Holdings and Avianca Brazil already underway (although probably nothing will happen before they figure out what to do with Kingsland).

It is still unclear whether this pan-latin merger will ultimately happen, but what I see that Efromovich is creating is a large aviation conglomerate (a la HNA) as he has not only been acquiring airlines but also aviation services related companies. Synergy as a whole will surely become an aviation powerhouse.

abrelosojos wrote:

KLAM wrote:

I really hope this is materialized. Aeromexico needs heavy competition. Interjet has not been able to keep up with the pace as its business model is pretty different. Long gone are the days when I would prefer a Mexican carrier over an American one. Today, I rather get to YUL vía YYZ on AC or UA vía EWR even if they have a BOB service. AM's soft product is depressing to say the least; more senior crews tend to be friendlier, but often you get an aloof attitude. My last flight with them was not bad per se, but there was a FA that looked like she had a fart under her nose and barely spoke to the passengers. We need someone to tell AM to wake up.
And you would be lucky if you leave on time!

= Yet, people still seem to flock to Aeromexico in Mexico? Mexico has some of the strongest competition with 4 major carriers. AM has a cost disadvantage (by a fair margin - can one of the Mexicans confirm?), and yet still manages to have higher yields and be the most profitable Mexican airline in 2017. Come on, you may have a personal bias, but clearly AM is doing something right? AM arguably has the strongest management team in Mexico filled with both Mexican and foreign talent, and I'd bet they are holding their own. To be fair, network planning could take far more risks.

jetero wrote:

Yikes.

Fourth fiddle in Brazil and fourth fiddle in Mexico. Absolutely zero service in the dense, must-be-in markets when AM is earning 6% margins and Interjet still isn’t making money and probably won’t ever (the same history of many Mexican airlines). I’d say unless AA develops a deep codeshare, but hey, that’s been done before with MX. Maybe AV can buy out 40. I’d say that had a decent enough chance to be a strong second to AM.

= Agreed 100%.

Saludos,
Alex

I am talking about soft product. Their finances are pretty solid and I am happy to see them grow. Yet, ground service in MEX is horrible, and it is rare that you do not get an attitude from their crews. So more than a personal bias (which would imply that my appreciation is invalid), I have a preference, which is not AM. I am not fully convinced by their offer, and I would gladly welcome an Avianca Mexico. Believe me, I used to support AM a lot before, but I have the right to not be satisfied with it anymore. Regardless of how financially stable they are

KLAM wrote:

I am talking about soft product. Their finances are pretty solid and I am happy to see them grow. Yet, ground service in MEX is horrible, and it is rare that you do not get an attitude from their crews. So more than a personal bias (which would imply that my appreciation is invalid), I have a preference, which is not AM. I am not fully convinced by their offer, and I would gladly welcome an Avianca Mexico. Believe me, I used to support AM a lot before, but I have the right to not be satisfied with it anymore. Regardless of how financially stable they are

= Absolutely agreed. We all have preferences, and I find their soft product perfectly acceptable by Latin standards. All I am saying is that clearly there are enough people who prefer to fly them, and give them a yield premium. Else, they won't be financially profitably in arguably the most competitive Latin market.

Saludos,
Alex