OAG Changes 12/10/2017: DL Drops GRK; UA Adds SHD/LWB, Drops LAX-OKC, SFO-XIY

enilria · Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:00 pm

FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3U LAX-HGH APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.4 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.5 AUG 0.3>0.4
3U LAX-TNA APR 0.3>0.4 MAY 0.3>0.5 JUN 0.3>0.4 JUL 0.3>0.4 AUG 0.3>0.5

7N MIA-SDQ JAN 1.2>1.1

9V FLL-CCS JAN 0.5>0 FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.5>0 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.5>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.6>0 AUG 0.6>0
9V MIA-CCS JAN 0.4>1.5 FEB 0.4>1.0 MAR 0.5>1.0 APR 0.4>1.0 MAY 0.5>1.0 JUN 0.4>1.0 JUL 0.4>1.0 AUG 0.4>1.0

AA CLT-SJO APR 0.9>1.0
AA MIA-CZM APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.8
AA MIA-MID APR 0.7>0.8 MAY 0.7>0.8
AA PHL-DEN APR 3>1.1 MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-GRR APR 2>3 MAY 2>3 JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA PHL-SEA APR 4>1.0 MAY 4>1.9

AD FLL-REC MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4
AD FLL-VCP APR 1.0>1.5 MAY 1.0>1.4 JUN 1.0>1.4 JUL 1.0>1.4 AUG 1.0>1.5

AF MIA-PAP JUL 0.7>0.8
AF MIA-PTP AUG 0>0.1

AM BOS-MEX APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.8
AM IAD-MEX MAY 1.0>0.9
AM ORD-GDL APR 1.0>1.1
AM SJC-GDL FEB 0.7>0.8

AS BWI-CUN JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
AS ORD-PVR JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

B0 EWR-CDG JAN 1.6>1.3

B6 BOS-STT APR 1.1>0
B6 MCO-BQN MAY 1.0>1.5 JUN 1.6>2

*BA JFK-ORY MAR 0.9>0.7 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
BA SJC-LHR JAN 0.9>0.7

BF SFO-ORY MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.4
BF SFO-PPT MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.5

BW FLL-POS JAN 1.0>0.8 FEB 1.0>0.9

*DL ATL-GRK JAN 1.4>0.7 FEB 1.4>0 MAR 1.5>0 APR 1.6>0 MAY 1.5>0 JUN 1.6>0 JUL 1.5>0 AUG 1.6>0
DL ATL-RST MAR 2.0>1.0
DL BOS-SFO MAR 1.7>1.0
DL JFK-BNA JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
Last week DSS was added
*DL JFK-DKR JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.3>0 MAR 0.3>0 APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0
DL JFK-IND JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3
DL JFK-SJC JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
DL LAN-MSP APR 3>1.9 MAY 3>1.8 JUN 3>2.0 JUL 3>1.9 AUG 3>2
DL LAX-DTW MAR 7>6
DL LGA-DEN JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
DL LGA-JAX JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4
DL LGA-OMA JUL 0.8>1.5 AUG 0.9>1.7
DL MIA-LAX MAR 1.0>0
DL MLI-MSP APR 1.9>1.0 MAY 1.8>1.0 JUN 1.8>1.0 JUL 1.8>1.0 AUG 1.9>1.0
DL SEA-LAX MAR 9>8
DL SEA-SFO MAR 7>6
DL SLC-BUR MAR 4>3
DL SLC-COS FEB 1.9>1.4 MAR 1.8>0.8
DL SLC-GTF FEB 1.9>1.1 MAR 3>0.3 APR 3>1.8 MAY 3>1.9 JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2
DL SLC-LHR APR 0.9>0.8

EW JFK-DUS MAY 0>0.8 JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>0.8 AUG 0>0.9

G7 CVG-STL JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9

HA HNL-NRT AUG 1.0>2
HA HNL-SFO JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2.0
*HA KOA-OAK JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
HA LAX-OGG JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
*HA OGG-SAN MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

HU JFK-CKG APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3
HU JFK-CTU APR 0>0.3 MAY 0>0.3 JUN 0>0.3 JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3

J5 AGN-TKE JAN 1.1>1.9
J5 JNU-PEC JAN 0.8>0.5 FEB 0.4>0.1

JL HNL-KIX MAY 1.0>2 JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2

JQ HNL-SYD AUG 0.9>0.7

*KS CEC-PDX JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0

LF BWI-MCN FEB 0>1.7 MAR 0>1.7

LH IAD-MUC FEB 0.7>0.4

LW MIA-SCL JAN 0>0.2

*MW BUR-SMX JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0
*MW IPL-LAX FEB 0>4 MAR 0>4 APR 0>4

NK FLL-BQN FEB 0.7>0.6
NK FLL-STT FEB 0.6>0.4

SA IAD-DKR JAN 0.4>0 FEB 0.4>0 MAR 0.4>0 APR 0.4>0 MAY 0.4>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.4>0 AUG 0.5>0
SA IAD-DSS JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4 MAY 0>0.4 JUN 0>0.4 JUL 0>0.4 AUG 0>0.5

SY DCA-MSP MAY 0.8>0
SY DFW-CUN MAY 1.1>1.0

UA DEN-PVR APR 0.6>0.9
UA EWR-ANU MAR 0.5>0.4
UA EWR-GUA MAR 0.5>0.3
UA EWR-NAS MAR 1.2>1.8 APR 1.4>1.6
UA EWR-PLS MAR 1.2>1.0 APR 1.3>1.2
UA EWR-POP MAR 1.1>1.0
UA EWR-PVR MAR 0.6>0.5
UA EWR-SJU MAR 3>1.8
UA IAD-CUN MAR 3>2.0 APR 3>1.9
UA IAD-DAY MAR 2>1.0
UA IAD-PUJ MAR 1.1>1.6 APR 0.9>1.1
*UA IAD-SHD APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7
UA IAD-SJD MAR 0.2>0.0
UA IAD-SJU MAR 1.3>1.1
UA IAH-GCM MAR 1.0>0.8
UA IAH-MBJ MAR 0.4>0.3
UA IAH-PTY APR 2>3
UA IAH-PUJ APR 0.3>0.5
UA IAH-RIC APR 1.7>1.3
UA IAH-RTB MAR 0.9>1.1
UA IAH-SJC APR 1.7>1.3
UA IAH-SLC APR 3>5
*UA LAX-ASE APR 1.8>1.1 MAY 1.9>0
UA LAX-BJX MAR 1.7>1.9
UA LAX-MRY APR 5>4 MAY 5>4
*UA LAX-OKC JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0
UA LAX-SJD APR 0.9>0.8
*UA LWB-SHD APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA ORD-ASE MAY 1.0>0
UA ORD-ATW APR 5>6 MAY 5>6
UA ORD-AUA MAR 0.6>0.5
UA ORD-CUN MAR 5>4
UA ORD-DLH MAY 4>3
UA ORD-LIR MAR 0.5>0.4
*UA ORD-LWB APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
UA ORD-MBJ MAR 1.2>1.0
UA ORD-NAS MAR 1.4>1.1
UA ORD-PVR MAR 3>2.0
UA ORD-SJO MAR 0.5>0.3
UA SFO-IAD APR 10>9
UA SFO-SBP APR 3>4 MAY 3>4
*UA SFO-XIY MAY 0.4>0 JUN 0.4>0 JUL 0.5>0 AUG 0.4>0

*VR PVD-RAI APR 0>0.1 MAY 0>0.2 JUN 0>0.1 JUL 0>0.2 AUG 0>0.1

*VS ATL-LHR JAN 0.9>0 FEB 1.0>0
VS JFK-LHR JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4

*WN EWR-SJU MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0
WN MCO-BNA FEB 4>5
WN MSY-TPA FEB 3>4
WN PHX-SAN MAR 11>10

WP HNL-KOA JAN 10>0 FEB 10>0 MAR 10>0 APR 10>0 MAY 10>0 JUN 10>0 JUL 10>0 AUG 10>0
WP HNL-LIH JAN 10>0 FEB 10>0 MAR 10>0 APR 10>0 MAY 10>0 JUN 10>0 JUL 10>0 AUG 10>0
WP HNL-OGG JAN 12>0 FEB 12>0 MAR 12>0 APR 12>0 MAY 12>0 JUN 12>0 JUL 12>0 AUG 12>0

X4 AGN-TKE JAN 0.7>0 FEB 1.8>0 MAR 1.9>0.9 APR 1.8>1.0 MAY 0.3>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
X4 ELV-JNU MAY 0>2.0 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0.2>3
X4 GST-HNH JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.8
X4 GST-JNU MAY 0.5>5 JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5
X4 HNH-JNU FEB 3>1.9 MAR 3>2 MAY 0.6>6 JUN 0>7 JUL 0>7 AUG 2>7
X4 HNS-JNU FEB 3>1.6 MAR 3>1.7 MAY 0.4>6 JUN 0>7 JUL 0>7 AUG 1.0>7
X4 JNU-KAE MAY 0.1>1.9 JUN 0>2 JUL 0>1.9 AUG 0>2
X4 JNU-PEC MAY 0>2.0 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3
X4 JNU-SGY FEB 1.9>0.9 MAR 2>1.0 MAY 0.4>6 JUN 0>6 JUL 0>6 AUG 1.0>7
X4 JNU-SIT MAY 0.3>5 JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>4
X4 KAE-SIT MAY 0.1>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
X4 KLW-SIT MAY 0.1>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

Y4 FAT-MLM JAN 0>0.3
Y4 LAX-ACA JAN 0>0.2
Y4 SJC-MLM JAN 0>0.3
Y4 SJC-ZCL JAN 0>0.3

flyfresno · Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:05 pm

SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

jetbluefan1 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:16 pm

Thanks enilria! Some interesting updates this week.

enilria wrote:
B6 BOS-STT APR 1.1>0
B6 MCO-BQN MAY 1.0>1.5 JUN 1.6>2

Sad to see STT completely go away. Seems it's going to take awhile before it fully rebounds.

Good to see BQN expected to rebound by summertime.

enilria wrote:
DL BOS-SFO MAR 1.7>1.0
DL JFK-SJC JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

Surprised these weren't starred too.

How is 1x on BOS-SFO at all competitive against B6's 5x, UA's 6x, and VX's 4x in this market? DL hasn't been in this market for a full year, but this isn't exactly a bullish sign.

The addition of JFK-SJC is very interesting. B6 hasn't had any competition on this route since AA operated it pre-crisis. It should work.

enilria wrote:
UA EWR-SJU MAR 3>1.8

*WN EWR-SJU MAR 0.1>0 APR 0.1>0 MAY 0.1>0

Interesting to see reductions on EWR-SJU while B6 recently added capacity for summer 2018. It remains to be seen if B6's more bullish outlook is warranted.

enilria · Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:46 pm

flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

You are right. I didn't notice it.

IPFreely · Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:48 pm

enilria wrote:
DL SEA-LAX MAR 9>8
DL SEA-SFO MAR 7>6

More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

enilria · Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:29 pm

enilria wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

You are right. I didn't notice it.

Maybe one of the mods can change the thread to:
OAG Changes 12/10/2017: DL Drops GRK, Adds JFK-SJC; UA Adds SHD/LWB, Drops LAX-OKC, SFO-XIY

ericm2031 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:35 pm

On a side note, it looks like SBP-SFO/LAX, SBA-LAX are no longer going to be at-risk/prorate markets for OO. With SMF and I believe ONT as well and OTH, it looks like UA will have taken over all of the CA routes

panamair · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:20 pm

flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

Interestingly enough, this looks like a domestic add given the flight times (815am out of JFK, and a red-eye return from SJC). Aircraft will be a 738.

RamblinMan · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:28 pm

panamair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

Interestingly enough, this looks like a domestic add given the flight times (815am out of JFK, and a red-eye return from SJC). Aircraft will be a 738.

Yes, service between two points in the same country is generally considered a domestic flight.

SJC is in California. SJO is the one in Costa Rica. Hippie friend of mine on his way to Costa Rica once bought a ticket to the wrong one and didnt realize it until he saw the Oakland Coliseum during descent.

Midwestindy · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:34 pm

enilria wrote:
AA PHL-DEN APR 3>1.1 MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-SEA APR 4>1.0 MAY 4>1.9

Those seem like pretty sizeable reductions, right?

enilria wrote:
DL JFK-BNA JUN 1.7>3 JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3
Last week DSS was added
*DL JFK-DKR JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.3>0 MAR 0.3>0 APR 0.3>0 MAY 0.3>0 JUN 0.3>0 JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0
DL JFK-IND JUN 1.8>3 JUL 1.8>3 AUG 1.9>3
DL JFK-SJC JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

Nice additions for JFK as well

VS4ever · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:37 pm

Surprised B6 ORH-JFK didn’t make this list as it went on sale for May 18 this week? Daily.

Midwestindy · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:40 pm

RamblinMan wrote:
panamair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

Interestingly enough, this looks like a domestic add given the flight times (815am out of JFK, and a red-eye return from SJC). Aircraft will be a 738.

Yes, service between two points in the same country is generally considered a domestic flight.

SJC is in California. SJO is the one in Costa Rica. Hippie friend of mine on his way to Costa Rica once bought a ticket to the wrong one and didnt realize it until he saw the Oakland Coliseum during descent.

I don't think that was what he was saying, most flights to JFK are timed to connect to the int'l flights, the bulk of which depart in the afternoon/evening, however the SJC-JFK-SJC flights appear to be timed more for domestic O&D rather than connecting int'l pax.

wedgetail737 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:58 pm

*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

I wonder why QX is stopping STS-SEA for two months. Is it part of the QX Curly Shuffle that they are still dealing with? Those flights are usually packed!

*KS CEC-PDX JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0

Any indication who will really take this over? I read a couple of months ago that the city selected Contour with the EMB jet between CEC and OAK.

Corpsnerd09 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:09 pm

enilria wrote:
DL MIA-LAX MAR 1.0>0

Is this a permanent cut or just for March?

tphuang · Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:43 pm

Corpsnerd09 wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL MIA-LAX MAR 1.0>0

Is this a permanent cut or just for March?

I believe this is a seasonal route that's now been pushed back by a year, probably just normal adjustment based on advanced sales.

IPFreely wrote:
More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

probably just typical adjustments based on advanced sales. Are these actually cut vs last year?

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Sad to see STT completely go away. Seems it's going to take awhile before it fully rebounds.

Good to see BQN expected to rebound by summertime.

Interesting to see reductions on EWR-SJU while B6 recently added capacity for summer 2018. It remains to be seen if B6's more bullish outlook is warranted.

Maybe B6 is trying to stake out its position in PR when others are cutting back. Will be interesting to see if some of the cut flights from MCO-SJU will come back.

Surprised these weren't starred too.

How is 1x on BOS-SFO at all competitive against B6's 5x, UA's 6x, and VX's 4x in this market? DL hasn't been in this market for a full year, but this isn't exactly a bullish sign.

The addition of JFK-SJC is very interesting. B6 hasn't had any competition on this route since AA operated it pre-crisis. It should work.

we will find out when Q3 data come out how all the carriers are doing on BOS-SFO. That should tell a lot.

As for JFK-SJC, it's not exactly without competition since both AS/UA operate EWRSJC. It's not exactly a high fare route and probably will drop even more with DL entry.

usairways85 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
enilria wrote:
AA PHL-DEN APR 3>1.1 MAY 3>1.9
AA PHL-SEA APR 4>1.0 MAY 4>1.9

Those seem like pretty sizeable reductions, right?

Yes. It is essentially extending the Winter schedule all the way into May which is surprising.

AWACSooner · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:02 pm

enilria wrote:
*UA LAX-OKC JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

That route has been there for what, 7-8 years? Hell of a time to drop it...and give AA the monopoly.

adamblang · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:05 pm

enilria wrote:
*UA IAD-SHD APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7
*UA LWB-SHD APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0
*UA ORD-LWB APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

Interesting that UA 5018 (IAD-SHD-LWB-ORD) and UA 5014 (ORD-LWB-SHD-IAD) is a little bit of a milk run. Operated by Skywest CR2s.

Shields · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:14 pm

IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL SEA-LAX MAR 9>8
DL SEA-SFO MAR 7>6

More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

Looking ahead to June, SEA-SFO is operated 8x/daily, exclusively on mainline. This is a significant capacity increase from as recently as two years ago, when the route was almost entirely E75 and perhaps had one mainline r/t.

Also noteworthy:

In June, LAX-SFO goes 100% DL mainline equipment (exclusively 738). And, DL is adding mainline equipment (717) to the LGA/ORD shuttle run beginning in April. That route sees 5x/daily 717 (in addition to the E70/75 service) come June.

loisencroach · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:22 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

I wonder why QX is stopping STS-SEA for two months. Is it part of the QX Curly Shuffle that they are still dealing with? Those flights are usually packed!

Wondering the same thing. I did a mock reservation though and #2492 operates STS-SEA in April and May. I think there is usually 2x daily on this route so it's kinda strange it's down to one.. STS is trying to get a second daily SAN flight but if that happened I don't think they would swap a SEA flight for it.

loisencroach · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:35 pm

MLI_-MSP is only 1x daily in the summer?

OKCDCA · Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:39 pm

Thanks as always enilria!

enilria wrote:
*UA LAX-OKC JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

Well this is kind of surprising, would like to know how under performing this route was... I'm guessing this was mostly connecting traffic which can be made through DEN and SFO. With AA being 2x daily on OKC-LAX and adding OKC-PHX should keep the capacity going west out of OKC at a good enough level to give people options out of OKC.

lavalampluva · Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:33 pm

G7 CVG-STL JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9

Is this a One Jet knock off?

FATFlyer · Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:44 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
*KS CEC-PDX JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0 MAR 2>0 APR 2>0 MAY 2>0 JUN 2>0 JUL 2>0 AUG 2>0

Any indication who will really take this over? I read a couple of months ago that the city selected Contour with the EMB jet between CEC and OAK.

CEC wants Contour but it would not be traditional EAS.

The Border Coast Regional Airport Authority has applied to be part of the Alternate Essential Air Service pilot program. In that program, CEC (instead of an airline) would receive the federal money directly. The airport would then be able to manage and subsidize their own selection of an air service provider outside of the traditional EAS rules.

The problem is it will be a few months before the Alternate Essential Air Service grant is approved.

cvgComair · Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:46 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
G7 CVG-STL JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9

Is this a One Jet knock off?

G7 is GoJet, but GoJet operates the route with Endeavor until June 8th, when Skywest takes over the route (Endeavor keeps its flight). Not sure why it is showing them past June, I am guessing it is just an error.

jplatts · Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:52 pm

AWACSooner wrote:
enilria wrote:
*UA LAX-OKC JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

That route has been there for what, 7-8 years? Hell of a time to drop it...and give AA the monopoly.

Southwest could add nonstop service from LAX to OKC, and Southwest will have room at LAX to add LAX-OKC nonstop service after the completion of the Terminal 1 renovations at LAX next year.

OKCDCA · Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:08 pm

jplatts wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
enilria wrote:
*UA LAX-OKC JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.0>0 JUL 1.0>0 AUG 1.0>0

That route has been there for what, 7-8 years? Hell of a time to drop it...and give AA the monopoly.

Southwest could add nonstop service from LAX to OKC, and Southwest will have room at LAX to add LAX-OKC nonstop service after the completion of the Terminal 1 renovations at LAX next year.

If UA is having trouble filling an E175 on the route with the number of connections available at LAX, what makes you think WN will be able to throw a 737 into the mix and be successful? Plus WN already has 2x daily OKC-PHX/LAS to feed people going west, if they could fill another 737 to LAX they probably would've done it by now, but then again WN has been fairly neglectful of OKC since the Wright Amendment dissolved with pretty bare bones service to their "hubs." If WN needed to add a flight out of OKC it's to MAF to connect the oil markets.

Ezra · Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:13 pm

enilria wrote:
DL LGA-JAX JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4

This seems like a random add -- DL has been stable with 3 r/t LGA-JAX flights for several years now. Anyone know more about this? I wonder if it'll stay permanent (right now it's not showing up past the end of August).

Rdh3e · Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:39 pm

adamblang wrote:
Interesting that UA 5018 (IAD-SHD-LWB-ORD) and UA 5014 (ORD-LWB-SHD-IAD) is a little bit of a milk run. Operated by Skywest CR2s.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... d-staunton

jplatts · Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:48 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
jplatts wrote:
AWACSooner wrote:
That route has been there for what, 7-8 years? Hell of a time to drop it...and give AA the monopoly.

Southwest could add nonstop service from LAX to OKC, and Southwest will have room at LAX to add LAX-OKC nonstop service after the completion of the Terminal 1 renovations at LAX next year.

If UA is having trouble filling an E175 on the route with the number of connections available at LAX, what makes you think WN will be able to throw a 737 into the mix and be successful? Plus WN already has 2x daily OKC-PHX/LAS to feed people going west, if they could fill another 737 to LAX they probably would've done it by now, but then again WN has been fairly neglectful of OKC since the Wright Amendment dissolved with pretty bare bones service to their "hubs." If WN needed to add a flight out of OKC it's to MAF to connect the oil markets.

Even though Southwest actually has more market share than United does at OKC and even though Southwest might be able to succeed on OKC-LAX nonstop service if the demand is really there for additional OKC-LAX nonstop service on a 737, I agree that the demand is probably not there for Southwest to serve LAX nonstop from OKC, and I agree that the connections can be made to the west coast from OKC on Southwest through DAL, DEN, PHX, and LAS on the existing Southwest nonstops from OKC.

Southwest only currently has 1 daily nonstop from OKC to MDW, but Southwest should add a 2nd OKC-MDW nonstop since it is unusual for Southwest to do only 1 daily nonstop from MDW to a market the size of OKC, since Southwest does more than 1 daily nonstop from MDW to markets much smaller than OKC, since Southwest would be able to provide easier access to destinations further east from OKC through MDW if it adds a 2nd OKC-MDW nonstop, and since there is significant demand from OKC to a few destinations east of MDW that do not have any nonstop service (including LGA).

I also agree that Southwest could add OKC-MAF nonstop service if the demand is really there, and Southwest could also continue the OKC-MAF nonstop service to MDW or STL and continue one of the MDW-OKC or STL-OKC nonstops to MAF in order to provide access to more SWA destinations from MAF if Southwest adds OKC-MAF nonstop service.

wedgetail737 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:50 pm

loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

I wonder why QX is stopping STS-SEA for two months. Is it part of the QX Curly Shuffle that they are still dealing with? Those flights are usually packed!

Wondering the same thing. I did a mock reservation though and #2492 operates STS-SEA in April and May. I think there is usually 2x daily on this route so it's kinda strange it's down to one.. STS is trying to get a second daily SAN flight but if that happened I don't think they would swap a SEA flight for it.

QX had been operating 2X daily nonstop SEA-STS during the peak months. That usually becomes 1X daily nonstop and sometimes 1X daily 1-stop (through PDX) during the off-peak months. I'm still hoping that QX will start E-175 flights into STS fairly soon.

IPFreely · Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:00 pm

loisencroach wrote:
MLI_-MSP is only 1x daily in the summer?

Seems like plenty for the O/D traffic between MLI-MSP.

Acey559 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:03 pm

loisencroach wrote:
MLI_-MSP is only 1x daily in the summer?

My thoughts as well. A far cry from the days when NW used to run 3x or 4x a day, some flights on the RJ85. Sad to see MLI lose so much service over the past few years.

loisencroach · Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:24 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

I wonder why QX is stopping STS-SEA for two months. Is it part of the QX Curly Shuffle that they are still dealing with? Those flights are usually packed!

Wondering the same thing. I did a mock reservation though and #2492 operates STS-SEA in April and May. I think there is usually 2x daily on this route so it's kinda strange it's down to one.. STS is trying to get a second daily SAN flight but if that happened I don't think they would swap a SEA flight for it.

QX had been operating 2X daily nonstop SEA-STS during the peak months. That usually becomes 1X daily nonstop and sometimes 1X daily 1-stop (through PDX) during the off-peak months. I'm still hoping that QX will start E-175 flights into STS fairly soon.

E175 ops in the planning stages. See item #C:

https://sonomacountyairport.org/wp-cont ... -21-17.pdf

ucdtim17 · Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:33 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
*AS SEA-STS APR 1.0>0 MAY 1.0>0 JUN 1.9>0.9 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0

I wonder why QX is stopping STS-SEA for two months. Is it part of the QX Curly Shuffle that they are still dealing with? Those flights are usually packed!

Wondering the same thing. I did a mock reservation though and #2492 operates STS-SEA in April and May. I think there is usually 2x daily on this route so it's kinda strange it's down to one.. STS is trying to get a second daily SAN flight but if that happened I don't think they would swap a SEA flight for it.

QX had been operating 2X daily nonstop SEA-STS during the peak months. That usually becomes 1X daily nonstop and sometimes 1X daily 1-stop (through PDX) during the off-peak months. I'm still hoping that QX will start E-175 flights into STS fairly soon.

Are we sure this isn't just a mistake? The daily Q400 is still there through April and May.

drdisque · Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:36 pm

Acey559 wrote:
loisencroach wrote:
MLI_-MSP is only 1x daily in the summer?

My thoughts as well. A far cry from the days when NW used to run 3x or 4x a day, some flights on the RJ85. Sad to see MLI lose so much service over the past few years.

My general feeling is that UA has captured some of the NW-loyal base in MLI since UA is so geographically advantaged to serve that market (frequent flights to both ORD and DEN vs. flying further to DTW or flying out of your way to go west via MSP). MLI-based UA flyers can also drive to ORD for international flights when they prefer and fly nonstop to a wide range of destinations.

Chuska · Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:34 pm

In response to UA*'s new milk-run, UA 5014 ORD-LWB-SHD-IAD and UA5018 IAD-SHD-LWB-ORD, to be a true milk run the westbound flight should have an odd flight number. (Oops!)

CHI2DFW · Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:24 am

Shields wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL SEA-LAX MAR 9>8
DL SEA-SFO MAR 7>6

More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

Looking ahead to June, SEA-SFO is operated 8x/daily, exclusively on mainline. This is a significant capacity increase from as recently as two years ago, when the route was almost entirely E75 and perhaps had one mainline r/t.

Also noteworthy:

In June, LAX-SFO goes 100% DL mainline equipment (exclusively 738). And, DL is adding mainline equipment (717) to the LGA/ORD shuttle run beginning in April. That route sees 5x/daily 717 (in addition to the E70/75 service) come June.

Great to see DL adding mainline! This is the right plane. AA seems to do quite well on this route, but what about DL and UA? All are hourly now. Then WN to MDW and those ULCs.

tphuang · Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:54 am

btw, are these filing errors?
AS BWI-CUN JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
AS ORD-PVR JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1

It's seriously curious to me that AS would add BWI-CUN after they already canceled SFO-CUN.

adamblang · Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:03 am

tphuang wrote:
btw, are these filing errors?
AS BWI-CUN JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
AS ORD-PVR JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1

It's seriously curious to me that AS would add BWI-CUN after they already canceled SFO-CUN.

It's probably a charter for someone like Apple Vacations.

wn676 · Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:14 am

enilria wrote:
UA ORD-DLH MAY 4>3

This route is being upgauged beginning on March 9th when UA will begin having an A319 RON in DLH. It’s a pretty big jump from a CR2 so I imagine that’s why the extra frequency will be cut.

Cubsrule · Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:14 am

cvgComair wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
G7 CVG-STL JAN 0>0.9 FEB 0>0.9 MAR 0>0.8 APR 0>0.9 MAY 0>0.9 JUN 0>0.8 JUL 0>0.9 AUG 0>0.9

Is this a One Jet knock off?

G7 is GoJet, but GoJet operates the route with Endeavor until June 8th, when Skywest takes over the route (Endeavor keeps its flight). Not sure why it is showing them past June, I am guessing it is just an error.

G7 and AX have had occasional issues with flights they operate show up with their code for as long as Enilria has been doing these reports.

CHI2DFW wrote:
Shields wrote:
IPFreely wrote:

More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

Looking ahead to June, SEA-SFO is operated 8x/daily, exclusively on mainline. This is a significant capacity increase from as recently as two years ago, when the route was almost entirely E75 and perhaps had one mainline r/t.

Also noteworthy:

In June, LAX-SFO goes 100% DL mainline equipment (exclusively 738). And, DL is adding mainline equipment (717) to the LGA/ORD shuttle run beginning in April. That route sees 5x/daily 717 (in addition to the E70/75 service) come June.

Great to see DL adding mainline! This is the right plane. AA seems to do quite well on this route, but what about DL and UA? All are hourly now. Then WN to MDW and those ULCs.

E75 to 717 is a pretty substantial product downgrade, especially in back. The 712s are not nice airplanes in coach.

wedgetail737 · Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 am

loisencroach wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
loisencroach wrote:

Wondering the same thing. I did a mock reservation though and #2492 operates STS-SEA in April and May. I think there is usually 2x daily on this route so it's kinda strange it's down to one.. STS is trying to get a second daily SAN flight but if that happened I don't think they would swap a SEA flight for it.

QX had been operating 2X daily nonstop SEA-STS during the peak months. That usually becomes 1X daily nonstop and sometimes 1X daily 1-stop (through PDX) during the off-peak months. I'm still hoping that QX will start E-175 flights into STS fairly soon.

E175 ops in the planning stages. See item #C:

https://sonomacountyairport.org/wp-cont ... -21-17.pdf

I wouldn't say they are even in the "planning" stages. It's a proposal coming from the airport. Now that said, others have mentioned that the E-175's will replace the Q400's on longer flights...but who knows when STS will be picked. Keep in mind that in terms of capacity, the E-175 doesn't add anything compared to the Q400. But the E-175's have 1st class.

wedgetail737 · Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:29 am

tphuang wrote:
btw, are these filing errors?
AS BWI-CUN JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1
AS ORD-PVR JUN 0>0.2 JUL 0>0.1 AUG 0>0.1

It's seriously curious to me that AS would add BWI-CUN after they already canceled SFO-CUN.

These might be something Apple Vacation flights.

grbauc · Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:08 am

RamblinMan wrote:
panamair wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
SJC-JFK seems like a big add for DL!

Interestingly enough, this looks like a domestic add given the flight times (815am out of JFK, and a red-eye return from SJC). Aircraft will be a 738.

Yes, service between two points in the same country is generally considered a domestic flight.

SJC is in California. SJO is the one in Costa Rica. Hippie friend of mine on his way to Costa Rica once bought a ticket to the wrong one and didnt realize it until he saw the Oakland Coliseum during descent.

Yikes that sucks. I was flying 3 different cities weekly and my car was at ONT and I was flying into LAX I forgot when doing my flights and remember looking down thinking man this pilot is going to have to drop fast if were going to Land at ONT. I got the pleasure of a 3 hour Blue van ride back to ONT.

grbauc · Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:18 am

Shields wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
enilria wrote:
DL SEA-LAX MAR 9>8
DL SEA-SFO MAR 7>6

More reductions in SEA again this week. Interesting.

Looking ahead to June, SEA-SFO is operated 8x/daily, exclusively on mainline. This is a significant capacity increase from as recently as two years ago, when the route was almost entirely E75 and perhaps had one mainline r/t.

Also noteworthy:

In June, LAX-SFO goes 100% DL mainline equipment (exclusively 738). And, DL is adding mainline equipment (717) to the LGA/ORD shuttle run beginning in April. That route sees 5x/daily 717 (in addition to the E70/75 service) come June.

100% correct DL operations out here up and down the coast has been Just the service that was needed. They have been text book in there build up. Domestic options out of LAX heading north give us AS and DL and SW
AA is still not really a option.

Acey559 · Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:57 am

drdisque wrote:
Acey559 wrote:
loisencroach wrote:
MLI_-MSP is only 1x daily in the summer?

My thoughts as well. A far cry from the days when NW used to run 3x or 4x a day, some flights on the RJ85. Sad to see MLI lose so much service over the past few years.

My general feeling is that UA has captured some of the NW-loyal base in MLI since UA is so geographically advantaged to serve that market (frequent flights to both ORD and DEN vs. flying further to DTW or flying out of your way to go west via MSP). MLI-based UA flyers can also drive to ORD for international flights when they prefer and fly nonstop to a wide range of destinations.

You may be correct. The big push at the airport now is to stop “leakage” to other airports; mainly ORD but to a lesser extent PIA and CID. Fares are much cheaper out of ORD generally and it’s a pretty easy drive up I-88/294/190. Maybe one day MLI will see passenger numbers of 2007 again but I’m not holding my breath.

SANFan · Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:45 am

A couple of thoughts.

Re: SJC-JFK on DL. I think this could be a pre-emptive move aimed at AAG. Rumors are out there that since AAG's move to T7 at JFK, with added room, AS might expand nontops to the west coast, in addition to LAX, SFO, SEA and PDX that are already served: I've definitely heard SAN mentioned and SJC -- another AAG focus city -- would also seem like a possibility. (In fact, DL is going 4x daily SAN-JFK next summer so another entry into the Bay Area wouldn't surprise me.)

Re: STS service on AAG. My guess here is that this a combination of seasonal service plus 'the QX pilot' issue. The smaller Q400 stations in CA often see strange schedules and added and subtracted service at times. FAT often sees the same kind of thing.

That being said, I would expect EMJ service on the horizon (pun intended!) on STS service. I'm also delighted to see a STS-SAN service increase mentioned; I've heard that the loads are very good and figure there's enough traffic on the route now that another r/t would allow daily r/t commuting in both directions. Hope it happens! EMJs to SAN, LAX and SEA would seem like a winning move for AAG.

bb

tphuang · Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:19 am

SANFan wrote:
A couple of thoughts.

Re: SJC-JFK on DL. I think this could be a pre-emptive move aimed at AAG. Rumors are out there that since AAG's move to T7 at JFK, with added room, AS might expand nontops to the west coast, in addition to LAX, SFO, SEA and PDX that are already served: I've definitely heard SAN mentioned and SJC -- another AAG focus city -- would also seem like a possibility. (In fact, DL is going 4x daily SAN-JFK next summer so another entry into the Bay Area wouldn't surprise me.)

Re: STS service on AAG. My guess here is that this a combination of seasonal service plus 'the QX pilot' issue. The smaller Q400 stations in CA often see strange schedules and added and subtracted service at times. FAT often sees the same kind of thing.

That being said, I would expect EMJ service on the horizon (pun intended!) on STS service. I'm also delighted to see a STS-SAN service increase mentioned; I've heard that the loads are very good and figure there's enough traffic on the route now that another r/t would allow daily r/t commuting in both directions. Hope it happens! EMJs to SAN, LAX and SEA would seem like a winning move for AAG.

bb

Really not sure where you get your jfk rumors but ewr sjc is one of the worst performing transcon routes in as network. Why would they add one out of JFK. And as had the lowest average fares on nyc SAN of all carriers, why would they add a very unfavorable timed option out of JFK which have far more options than out of ewr. As a point of reference, they yield much better out of ewr vs JFK to Seattle.

jetbluefan1 · Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:42 am

SANFan wrote:
A couple of thoughts.

Re: SJC-JFK on DL. I think this could be a pre-emptive move aimed at AAG. Rumors are out there that since AAG's move to T7 at JFK, with added room, AS might expand nontops to the west coast, in addition to LAX, SFO, SEA and PDX that are already served: I've definitely heard SAN mentioned and SJC -- another AAG focus city -- would also seem like a possibility. (In fact, DL is going 4x daily SAN-JFK next summer so another entry into the Bay Area wouldn't surprise me.)

Interesting point. That could very well be the case, given that AS seems to be committed to SJC (and to JFK) post-merger. Smart preemptive move on DL's part.

While I agree SAN-JFK should also be on the AS radar, it will be a more difficult market with B6/DL/AA currently splitting the market (with the former 2 offering lay-flat products).

tphuang wrote:
Really not sure where you get your jfk rumors but ewr sjc is one of the worst performing transcon routes in as network. Why would they add one out of JFK. And as had the lowest average fares on nyc SAN of all carriers, why would they add a very unfavorable timed option out of JFK which have far more options than out of ewr. As a point of reference, they yield much better out of ewr vs JFK to Seattle.

It may have more to do with giving SJC point-of-sale customers more options, in a bid for their loyalty on more profitable routes. But you're right. Those average EWR-SJC fares on AS are pretty bad. Q1 2017 was $183, and Q2 was $212. Quite awful based on these data points (although we need to see a few more quarters before being able to draw bigger conclusions). For comparison, B6 yielded $202 and $251 from JFK during the same time period - which also isn't great.

The spread on EWR vs. JFK to SEA is probably due to expand once B6 introduces Mint this spring. Unrelated, but B6 has also loaded Mint on its third BOS-SEA frequency this summer, so AS will be getting even more competition soon...

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