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When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:59 am

when will these companies project completely new families to replace their current narrow bodies families?

any toughts?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:08 pm

As Boeing and Airbus have a combined NEO/MAX backlog of close to 10,000 aircraft (!), not anytime soon.

Analysts believe ~ 2030 would be a good opportunity, but it's a long shot and nobody can predict what will happen in the next 10 to 15 years. In the 2000s many people believed clean-sheet A320/737 replacement aircraft would have entered the market by now, yet here we are with re-engined airplanes. And continuous upgrades can keep the current designs afloat for many more years to come.
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Newbiepilot
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:15 pm

Backlog is huge. I think they are focused on building the planes now and making modifications to the 737 and A320 as necessary.

It is way too early to seriously consider replacement. It will tank sales and hurt business cases that require 12-25 years of operating the airplane. It would reduce the sales prices if something better is on the horizon.

Looking back at history, only 10% of 737NG orders were made before first delivery. While I think the market has changed with bigger loner orders, the A320neo and MAX will continue selling well for a long time.

One important factor is that these are proven and perfected designs. Dispatch reliability is over 99.5% for both approaching 99.8%. A new airplane would be below 99% or possibly below 98% to start out and take years to perfect. Not a whole lot of airlines really want to go through that process when the existing airframes are so good.
 
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flee
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:35 pm

Production ramp up of the A320 Neo and B737 Max is still ongoing, backlog is still huge, more orders are still coming in - so it is best to focus on these new aircraft and not drop the ball. For them to think about new designs, there must be more new technologies available. Changing something that works must be a change with tangible benefits. So unless there is a quantum leap, I think Airbus and Boeing will not risk going into new designs.

However, an emerging aerospace industry is happening in China and Russia is resurgent in the civil aviation industry. If they pop up surprises in the future, the incumbents will have to respond...
 
Noshow
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:37 pm

One would need a new engine generation to gain at least 15 percent operating cost advantage over the latest current aircraft. That is when investors break even on credits and stuff. New engines take their time (and a lot of money) and might mean new aircraft configurations. (like tail mounted open rotors)
Behind the scenes both are said to prepare the next shot. Boeing might be a tad earlier than Airbus. However both don't like to talk about it in order to keep their MAX and neo order flows going.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:10 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Backlog is huge. I think they are focused on building the planes now and making modifications to the 737 and A320 as necessary.

It is way too early to seriously consider replacement. It will tank sales and hurt business cases that require 12-25 years of operating the airplane. It would reduce the sales prices if something better is on the horizon.

Looking back at history, only 10% of 737NG orders were made before first delivery. While I think the market has changed with bigger loner orders, the A320neo and MAX will continue selling well for a long time.

One important factor is that these are proven and perfected designs. Dispatch reliability is over 99.5% for both approaching 99.8%. A new airplane would be below 99% or possibly below 98% to start out and take years to perfect. Not a whole lot of airlines really want to go through that process when the existing airframes are so good.


Both companies would be betting the farm on these new birds, so the design, testing, roll out and EIS had better be just as close to perfect as well. If Boeing or Airbus were to suffer the kind of problems the 787 had, that would be a financial catastrophe for the OEM and the airlines as well.
 
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seahawk
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:19 pm

Not before there is another huge step in engine development and even then only if they can not fit the planes to the current fuselage. The simple tube fuselage is not offering much room for a step forward in design. And better materials and production methods can be used on the existing ones as well.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:07 pm

Well, Airbus seems to be heading to replace its A319s with the CSeries... ;-)
 
Antarius
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:32 pm

The new 737 and 320 are basically new airplanes. The MAX and NEO are replacements, albeit with same names. I mean, even if they invested years and rebuilt them from scratch, the end product isn't going to look much different... so I doubt anytime soon.
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william
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:49 pm

The aerospace companies have been investing billions lately in R&D and new products. Time to reap the profits and share the wealth with shareholders. It will at least be a decade before noises are made about a new NB aircraft.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:17 pm

The engine development argument is a red herring. We just go through a 15% fuel burn reduction and the new engines are hanging of the old frames. Neither Airbus nor Boeing did a new frame, Boeing did the MAX after having declared the next step being a new narrow body. You will always be able to hang the new engine under the old frame. For a new frame to come, IMO one of 3 things have to happen.
1. The new competitors in China and Russia are taking a to big a part of the sales.
2. Airbus or Boeing sells significantly more than the other.
3. Revolutionary changes in propulsion, not just a more efficient engine, that needs a complete design change of the frame.
If non of the above happens, we will see the same frames the next fifty years.
 
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:32 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The engine development argument is a red herring. We just go through a 15% fuel burn reduction and the new engines are hanging of the old frames. Neither Airbus nor Boeing did a new frame, Boeing did the MAX after having declared the next step being a new narrow body. You will always be able to hang the new engine under the old frame. For a new frame to come, IMO one of 3 things have to happen.
1. The new competitors in China and Russia are taking a to big a part of the sales.
2. Airbus or Boeing sells significantly more than the other.
3. Revolutionary changes in propulsion, not just a more efficient engine, that needs a complete design change of the frame.
If non of the above happens, we will see the same frames the next fifty years.

Some people's heads will explode if you tell them that the 737-10 will be in production for fifty years! :biggrin:
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bigjku
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:34 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The engine development argument is a red herring. We just go through a 15% fuel burn reduction and the new engines are hanging of the old frames. Neither Airbus nor Boeing did a new frame, Boeing did the MAX after having declared the next step being a new narrow body. You will always be able to hang the new engine under the old frame. For a new frame to come, IMO one of 3 things have to happen.
1. The new competitors in China and Russia are taking a to big a part of the sales.
2. Airbus or Boeing sells significantly more than the other.
3. Revolutionary changes in propulsion, not just a more efficient engine, that needs a complete design change of the frame.
If non of the above happens, we will see the same frames the next fifty years.


Agree with your list but would add a fourth.

A major change in manhours needed to build could spur a full replacement for something that looks similar but is better able to leverage lots of automation in the assembly and manufacturing process.
 
Bricktop
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:03 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
1. The new competitors in China and Russia are taking a to big a part of the sales.

Russia has no empire to push their planes into. Domestically, they can't take THAT many frames to make a living off.
China though is another story, but that again would be a primarily domestic market unless a new mega-startup abroad comes along.
IMO, every established airline has a massive investment in A, B or both's existing frames that isn't going away any time soon.
They only way I see them hurting themselves is availability, but again I think that can be managed.

No rush for either: Time to milk the efforts into MAX/neo for all they are worth.
 
VS11
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:49 pm

Maybe there won't be a need for a 737/320 replacement. With population growth, increased air traffic and airport congestion, the next step would be using a small widebody - the higher capacity short range plane that the 797 supposedly is (whose EIS was pushed to 2027 per the other thread). The 737/320 size planes will be relegated to a regional plane status.
 
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ACCS300
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:13 pm

VS11 wrote:
Maybe there won't be a need for a 737/320 replacement. With population growth, increased air traffic and airport congestion, the next step would be using a small widebody - the higher capacity short range plane that the 797 supposedly is (whose EIS was pushed to 2027 per the other thread). The 737/320 size planes will be relegated to a regional plane status.


Excellent point, seems the best selling MAX/neo models seem to be gradually shifting to the larger models. If airlines typically want about 200 seats on average, the MOM sector may be where A and B should put the lions share of their respective efforts.
 
irelayer
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:16 pm

Whatever happened to Y1? Did that turn into the 797?
 
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Ty134A
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:17 pm

VS11 wrote:
Maybe there won't be a need for a 737/320 replacement. With population growth, increased air traffic and airport congestion, the next step would be using a small widebody - the higher capacity short range plane that the 797 supposedly is (whose EIS was pushed to 2027 per the other thread). The 737/320 size planes will be relegated to a regional plane status.


Most likely before that, our lovely but unfortunately limited planet will end up with a lot of global warming and very little oil...
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downdata
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:30 am

Never, why spend billions in capex when you can just tweak the existing designs and have cash rolling in. This is what happens in all industries where competition is limited. Monopolistic markets punish innovation.
 
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:39 am

mjoelnir wrote:
If non of the above happens, we will see the same frames the next fifty years.


Years ago on here this topic was being discussed and I predicted that the 737 / A320 series would be flying the majority of mainline domestic flights in 2050. With nothing revolutionary on the horizon, I stick by that prediction even now.
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AvObserver
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:56 am

At least 10-12 years for Boeing and even longer for Airbus because the A320 family is fully 20 years newer than the 737 family and still has room to grow, especially now that Airbus has the C-Series for the lower capacity NB market. The 737 in its latest MAX incarnation is still a great airplane but has essentially reached the limits of its basic airframe and it shows as it's losing sales ground to the A320NEO family at the higher capacity, longer range segments of the NB market. Since it doesn't compete as well to the A321NEO in those areas, the onus is on Boeing to replace its cash cow before Airbus needs to replace its own cash cow; again, the 737 frame is pretty much "Maxed out". Nonetheless, I expect the MAX to be built well into the 2030's as long as it remains profitable. The A320 family in future rewinged variants could possibly survive until 2050 or so though I expect Airbus to have a successor ready to go by 2035 if Boeing finally junks the 737 for a new narrow-body design.
 
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:06 am

irelayer wrote:
Whatever happened to Y1? Did that turn into the 797?


Well it turned into NSA - New Small Airplane. As to what it's commercial designation will be, if NMA takes 797...
 
irelayer
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:38 pm

downdata wrote:
Never, why spend billions in capex when you can just tweak the existing designs and have cash rolling in. This is what happens in all industries where competition is limited. Monopolistic markets punish innovation.


C-Series is a great example of this. They tried to build a clean-sheet modern composite fuselage mated to modern engines and it basically bankrupted them, with Airbus left to pick up the pieces. And that's not even in the range we are talking about.

Any innovation in this space is going to come from China or Russia, and once there is a viable competitor you can be sure both Boeing and Airbus will have clean-sheet designs in development.

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Arion640
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:21 pm

Airbus potentially have the base model for there replacement...the CSeries...

The 737NG has been produced since the late 90's, 20 years and still being produced. I fully expect the MAX to be in production for the same length of time, providing the Chinese/Russians/Japenese don't break the status quo.
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YIMBY
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:11 am

Replacement of what? The replacement for original 737-100 is a regional jet. The replacement for 318 and 391 is CSeries, a potential CS500 would even replace 320's for several, typically shorter routes.

Certainly Airbus will not plan any other replacement, though you may discuss whether a possible rewing/restrech/reengine (32x) is a new plane, but in any case that would be a complement rather than replacement. Airbus has still possibilities for reoptimize.

Boeing may be forced to replace 737 if Airbus outsells Boeing. That might be possible, but most likely Airbus will not do that but will rather increase the price. It is not of their interest to force their competitor to design a new frame.

If Boeing would design a replacement for 737 in current technology, it might look rather indistinguishable from 320, other than purposed design features. But Boeing might rather design a complementary plane for either higher or lower of current 737 and reoptimize remaining 737 to other direction.
 
parapente
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am

Some really good answers here.Certainly the duopoly argument is a strong one.If the present status quo is maintained (put your own %age shares in here!) then there is no internal pressures to do anything (but make loads more money).
If however the status quo does change then you would see some action.
For instance if the unit size continues to do what it is already doing then it will be to Airbus' advantage.But even here a Boeing will soon have a 230 seater in the dash 10.If you start looking 225-270 seats -well that's the 797.

For me it would have to be technology and the environment that changes the present status quo.We pretty much know nothing will happen in the next decade as the NEO/MAX are 'new' aircraft and the next Boeing project is the 797.

If the Global atmospheric climate concerns continue to build then by 2030 something more radical will have to be done.Perhaps OR perhaps electric Hybrid ie a combination of the two.These technologies would be married to a brand new airframe with super high efficiency (laminar) wings.
This is what I would expect to happen.They need a decade at least to mature these technologies perhaps 15 years.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: When will Boeing and Airbus launch the replacements for 737 and A320 families

Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:29 pm

While the smaller sized and ranged 320/737s (as originally envisioned) have over the decades proven inefficient the cure was increasing the size, better wings, improved aerodynamics, taking excess weight out. All this has pretty well resulted in an optimized aluminum tube with two engines hanging from the wings, accommodating 200+/- passengers, and covering 500-3500 miles. Impressive! I don't think there are that much improvements that a new design could offer in those ranges and capacities.

The C-series may offer competition at the lower range and capacities, and there are great uncertainties at a MOM competing at a larger size with more range.
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