DL May Push C-Series Order to AM Avoiding Trade Duty

enilria · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:24 am

Wow. Well, doesn't solve the DL fleet need.

Aeromexico (AEROMEX.MX) has held preliminary talks to take some Bombardier (BBDb.TO) CSeries jets orders from Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), which owns a stake in the Mexican carrier, to avoid possible U.S. trade duties levied on the planes, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Mexico's largest carrier, 49-percent owned by Delta, is considering taking an unknown number of the 75 CSeries planes ordered by Delta in 2016, one of the sources said. Delta's CSeries deliveries, scheduled to begin in spring 2018, face a possible 300 percent U.S. duty stemming from a trade dispute with Boeing Co (BA.N).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aeromexi ... 12124.html

IPFreely · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:53 am

I'm pretty sure Ed Bastian previously stated that Delta would take the planes as scheduled and would not pay the import duties.

CX747 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:12 am

However it plays out, I'm pretty sure Delta doesn't get a final say as to which tariff it pays and which one it doesn't. Maybe early clues here to the 300% tariff being finalized.

LatinPlane · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:26 am

Meanwhile at AM's maintenance base...

mercure1 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:29 am

Considering we are years away from a US FAL being operational the move makes sense.

kabq737 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:38 am

LatinPlane wrote:
Meanwhile at AM's maintenance base...

Do you know when that arrived?

many321 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:46 am

kabq737 wrote:
LatinPlane wrote:
Meanwhile at AM's maintenance base...

Do you know when that arrived?

It happened last week. I'm a fan of a CSeries page on Instagram and someone posted two photographs of the plane and a pamphlet with a lanyard that had a vertical stabilizer of a CSeries Jet with AM's livery. Here's the page.

https://www.instagram.com/cseries_fanpage/

kabq737 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:52 am

many321 wrote:
kabq737 wrote:
LatinPlane wrote:
Meanwhile at AM's maintenance base...

Do you know when that arrived?

It happened last week. I'm a fan of a CSeries page on Instagram and someone posted two photographs of the plane and a pamphlet with a lanyard that had a vertical stabilizer of a CSeries Jet with AM's livery. Here's the page.

https://www.instagram.com/cseries_fanpage/

Hmmmm...interesting...thank you very much! Something really fishy is going on here.

ninspeed · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:04 am

Could we see these planes dry leased back to delta? What about Virgin Atlantic? They are also owned 49% by delta.... could we see some planes pushed over there?

iamlucky13 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:05 am

IPFreely wrote:
I'm pretty sure Ed Bastian previously stated that Delta would take the planes as scheduled and would not pay the import duties.

Here's what he said at their last earnings presentation to investors, a couple weeks before the Airbus news:

source

We will not pay those tariffs. That is very clear. We intend to take the aircraft. I can’t tell you how this is going to eventually work out. There may be a delay in us taking the aircraft, as we work through the issues with Bombardier, who is being a great partner in this.

As far as I know, Aeromexico taking the aircraft will not get around the issue, because Aeromexico can't operate flights where both the origin and destination are in the US, and they can't have Delta operate them, because that should be covered under rules designed to prevent circumvention.

But if the aircraft also fits Aeromexico's needs, it might be making the best of the situation while getting the US final assembly line cleared with respect to the tariffs and in production, or perhaps even fighting the penalties through appeal or the WTO.

I don't know what Aeromexico would do with the Maxes they have on order though.

IPFreely · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:23 am

CX747 wrote:
However it plays out, I'm pretty sure Delta doesn't get a final say as to which tariff it pays and which one it doesn't. Maybe early clues here to the 300% tariff being finalized.

The U.S. Import/Export Trade Commission has the final say and they likely won't make any ruling until 2018. For Ed B. to say Delta will take the planes without paying the tariff means he either has inside information in advance of the ruling or he's just making stuff up to appease his Board of Directors.

KrustyTheKlown · Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:02 am

AM has orders for "60 737 MAX 8s and 9s [which includes reconfirmation rights for an additional 30 MAXs]" and will start receiving its first MAX8 early next year.

AM's current fleet includes 17 737-700 (124 pax) and 38 737-800 (160 pax). Aeromexico connect (regional subsidiary) operates 46 E-190 (99 pax) and 13 E-170 (76 pax).

The C-series could replace their 737-700s or E-190s and has very good hot & high field performance (a big plus in MEX). It could be a good choice for thin MEX-US routes (like MEX-PDX or MEX-AUS).

berari · Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:13 am

Could Aeromexico take delivery from Bombardier, but DL buys the aircraft off of them? Shady yes, but perfectly legal.

MaksFly · Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:29 am

berari wrote:
Could Aeromexico take delivery from Bombardier, but DL buys the aircraft off of them? Shady yes, but perfectly legal.

This is essentially a "sale-leaseback"....

Delta sells their plane rights to AM, and then AM leases them back to Delta.

Depending on how the trade penalty is structured, they may be able to buy it back and avoid the tariff completely. ie, any lookback periods or effective sales. etc.

Jomar777 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:50 am

You might see that DL cannot simply buy the C-Series now because of the tariffs. It doe snot matter what Ed says. He does not have the final say. But what he could do (and might be doing) is to defer the order until the Airbus plant is up and running and effectively selling the slots to a subsidiary (Aeromexico) which needs potentially to replace their 737-700 and E-190s. If the price is good, given it is a major shareholder, why not? It is, in a win-win situation since BBD gets a new customer, DL gets their C-Series later (either by waiting for the US Factory to start shifting or by buying them second hand from Aeromexico after the trade dispute has passed).
IMHO, in case the Airbus plans fail and the Tariffs are ractified, then BBD might lose the DL order but get this one in exchange - possible...

KarelXWB · Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:52 am

That's one clever way to avoid import duties:

Aeromexico has held preliminary talks to take some Bombardier (BBDb.TO) CSeries jets orders from Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), which owns a stake in the Mexican carrier, to avoid possible U.S. trade duties levied on the planes, two sources familiar with the matter said.

...

Mexico’s largest carrier, 49-percent owned by Delta, is considering taking an unknown number of the 75 CSeries planes ordered by Delta in 2016, one of the sources said.

...

Under the proposed Aeromexico deal, the single-aisle jets would be sold to Aeromexico and fly under the banner of the Mexican carrier which would not have to pay a U.S. duty, one of the sources added.

Article
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1DY2NU

LupineChemist · Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:56 am

Clever, also gives them time to start up the line in Mobile while keeping the current line with no holes in the order book.

Amiga500 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:23 am

So would this be more frames sold (i.e. DL will take more slots later on as well as handing these off), or would it be the same orders (DL will take these frames when they have a satisfactory way around the tariffs)?

Revelation · Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:58 am

IPFreely wrote:
The U.S. Import/Export Trade Commission has the final say and they likely won't make any ruling until 2018. For Ed B. to say Delta will take the planes without paying the tariff means he either has inside information in advance of the ruling or he's just making stuff up to appease his Board of Directors.

He said DL will not pay the tariff and it intends to take the planes. The use of the word "intend" means it's not an absolute.

Runway28L · Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:22 pm

If DL ends up not taking the C-Series for a while, what could this mean for the MD-88 fleet? Could they have to possibly try and hang on to them for longer and deal with expensive maintenance costs and finding spare engines/parts or would they have to trust their current A321 and 739 orders to replace the Mad Dogs despite a big capacity bump?

When is Airbus expected to have the C-Series line fully ready down at BFM?

KarelXWB · Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:25 pm

Runway28L wrote:
When is Airbus expected to have the C-Series line fully ready down at BFM?

2020 at the earliest.

wjcandee · Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:38 pm

Here's an EWAG prediction: Boeing isn't going to be able to show actual harm and thus the actual size of the tariffs is going to be de minimus.

Also, BBD and Pratt are so far behind that I don't see BBD actually being able to deliver aircraft to DL in 2018 (assuming that they fill the orders that they were supposed to fill before delivering planes to DL; obviously, they can choose to rearrange deliveries, but I will be quite surprised if they have it together even by YE 2018).

Pratt is really destroying the CS program, and they show no signs of digging out of this mess anytime in the next year. They sure didn't meet their predictions in 2017.

ehaase · Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:41 pm

Runway28L wrote:
If DL ends up not taking the C-Series for a while, what could this mean for the MD-88 fleet? Could they have to possibly try and hang on to them for longer and deal with expensive maintenance costs and finding spare engines/parts or would they have to trust their current A321 and 739 orders to replace the Mad Dogs despite a big capacity bump?

My impression is that the C series mostly replace larger regional jets; the A321 and 739 mostly replace 757's, 763's, and MD-88's; and this next RFP mostly replaces the remaining domestic 757's, MD-90's, and older 320's. My impression is the MD-88's are gone sometime in 2020 no matter what.

WaywardMemphian · Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:22 pm

Here's what should worry Boeing, another airline will be flying the C-Series. That let's be proved on additional missions and open it up to even more business. AM could use these planes on some seasonal routes to expand point to points.

many321 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:48 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Here's what should worry Boeing, another airline will be flying the C-Series.

Especially with AM since most of their mainline aircrafts are all Boeing.

In addition, Embraer should be worried since AMs regional line is all Ejets. If AM sees the capabilities C100 and helps them compete, then you can pretty much guess what happens next.

ahj2000 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:55 pm

ehaase wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
If DL ends up not taking the C-Series for a while, what could this mean for the MD-88 fleet? Could they have to possibly try and hang on to them for longer and deal with expensive maintenance costs and finding spare engines/parts or would they have to trust their current A321 and 739 orders to replace the Mad Dogs despite a big capacity bump?

My impression is that the C series mostly replace larger regional jets; the A321 and 739 mostly replace 757's, 763's, and MD-88's; and this next RFP mostly replaces the remaining domestic 757's, MD-90's, and older 320's. My impression is the MD-88's are gone sometime in 2020 no matter what.

Not necessarily. AirBaltic replaced their 737 with CS1/3.
That being said, I see the CS100 doing well as part of Aeroméxico Connect

msycajun · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:04 pm

What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series? They are already in the fleet, would bridge the gap in capacity until the tariff is canceled or Mobile line happens, and avoids buying anything new from Boeing.

klakzky123 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:46 pm

I suppose thanks to Delta, Aeromexico got far better pricing on the C-Series than it could on its own. Seems like a solid move for both parties.

jnev3289 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:50 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
That's one clever way to avoid import duties:

Aeromexico has held preliminary talks to take some Bombardier (BBDb.TO) CSeries jets orders from Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), which owns a stake in the Mexican carrier, to avoid possible U.S. trade duties levied on the planes, two sources familiar with the matter said.

...

Mexico’s largest carrier, 49-percent owned by Delta, is considering taking an unknown number of the 75 CSeries planes ordered by Delta in 2016, one of the sources said.

...

Under the proposed Aeromexico deal, the single-aisle jets would be sold to Aeromexico and fly under the banner of the Mexican carrier which would not have to pay a U.S. duty, one of the sources added.

Article
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN1DY2NU

If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

ExMilitaryEng · Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:57 pm

msycajun wrote:
What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series?

They may not need to go that far, but that would be a very clever move!

ExMilitaryEng · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:02 pm

jnev3289 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Under the proposed Aeromexico deal, the single-aisle jets would be sold to Aeromexico and fly under the banner of the Mexican carrier which would not have to pay a U.S. duty, one of the sources added.
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

Can you explain me how this is a mockery / abuse of import rules. If Aeromexico feels it's a good value proposition to acquire part of Delta CSeries production slots, who are we to tell them otherwise?

Polot · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:09 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
msycajun wrote:
What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series?

They may not need to go that far, but that would be a very clever move!

Well, for DL. Would kind of suck for AM to be replacing 160 seat 738s with ~110 seat CS100s.

many321 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:15 pm

Polot wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
msycajun wrote:
What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series?

They may not need to go that far, but that would be a very clever move!

Well, for DL. Would kind of suck for AM to be replacing 160 seat 738s with ~110 seat CS100s.

AM are going to begin retiring their 700s, so I could see them swap some of those CS100s for the CS300, and keep the rest of CS100s for their regional line or open new long thin routes that weren't viable with the 738.

msycajun · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:17 pm

Polot wrote:
ExMilitaryEng wrote:
msycajun wrote:
What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series?

They may not need to go that far, but that would be a very clever move!

Well, for DL. Would kind of suck for AM to be replacing 160 seat 738s with ~110 seat CS100s.

Maybe they could convert some to CS300s. AM has the MAX on order, so they could probably shuffle things around to make things work. Especially with the JV there are plenty of options to move some trans-border routes to DL and vice-versa. Not saying it will necessarily happen, but interesting to consider nonetheless.

jnev3289 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:18 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Under the proposed Aeromexico deal, the single-aisle jets would be sold to Aeromexico and fly under the banner of the Mexican carrier which would not have to pay a U.S. duty, one of the sources added.
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.
Can you explain me how this is a mockery / abuse of import rules. If Aeromexico feels it's a good value proposition to acquire part of Delta CSeries production slots, who are we to tell them otherwise?

I think the sentiment around it all is that Delta will use their 49% ownership influence to persuade them how good of a "value proposition" it really is.

scbriml · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:19 pm

jnev3289 wrote:
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants. :confused:

jnev3289 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants.

Oh, maybe I quoted the wrong post. I was referring to AeroMexico taking delivery and then leasing them to DL. Of course AeroMexico taking them and operating them is not a mockery of anything. I would love to see Bastian be dead wrong about how they were certainly taking those planes though.

448205 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants.

It's asking to get hit with some huge regulatory actions. Reminds me of what banks though was clever in the 2010-2012 range.

767333ER · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:33 pm

jnev3289 wrote:
I would love to see Bastian be dead wrong about how they were certainly taking those planes though.

And I would more than love to see him be right because they shouldn’t have to be paying them anyway.

msycajun wrote:
What if DL takes some of AM's 737s and 738s and AM replaces them with the C Series? They are already in the fleet, would bridge the gap in capacity until the tariff is canceled or Mobile line happens, and avoids buying anything new from Boeing.

That would be an interesting way to do it, but DL has been clear that they do not like the 73G nor do they want/need anymore. 738 maybe. What I could see happening is they push of the first bunch to AM until they can get them built in Alabama and then they will take the rest and excersize the options to top up the order, then if AM wants more still they can order more. They would still probably get their planes, but in the mean time the rest are not delayed, but already in service making money.

Dash9 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:37 pm

jnev3289 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants.

Oh, maybe I quoted the wrong post. I was referring to AeroMexico taking delivery and then leasing them to DL. Of course AeroMexico taking them and operating them is not a mockery of anything. I would love to see Bastian be dead wrong about how they were certainly taking those planes though.

The idea of having a non-US organisation Aeromexico or anything else) buy the CSeries and lease them to Delta was already discussed. Apparently it wouldn't work as the airplane would still need to be N registered thus 'imported'. If that scheme was possible to bypass the tariffs them Delta would have already created its own CSeries leasing organization in the Bahamas

LupineChemist · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:38 pm

jnev3289 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
If this happens it makes a mockery of any import rules and I don't think the government will take it lying down. I see the logic in it, but when you abuse something you're asking for it to be taken away.

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants.

Oh, maybe I quoted the wrong post. I was referring to AeroMexico taking delivery and then leasing them to DL. Of course AeroMexico taking them and operating them is not a mockery of anything. I would love to see Bastian be dead wrong about how they were certainly taking those planes though.

But the plan, as of now, is to take planes assembled in the USA. I still don't get how that is making a mockery of the rules. He never said DL would take delivery of the CSeries on schedule, just that they wouldn't pay the tariff. In fact he explicitly said it may cause a delay. It may be that the tariff is overruled via NAFTA arbitration or some other rule in the meantime and then they can just start taking delivery from Montreal manufactured aircraft.

jnev3289 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:45 pm

LupineChemist wrote:
jnev3289 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

How is it "making a mockery" of anything if the planes are not imported into the US by DL and not operated by DL? That's exactly what Boeing wants.

Oh, maybe I quoted the wrong post. I was referring to AeroMexico taking delivery and then leasing them to DL. Of course AeroMexico taking them and operating them is not a mockery of anything. I would love to see Bastian be dead wrong about how they were certainly taking those planes though.

But the plan, as of now, is to take planes assembled in the USA. I still don't get how that is making a mockery of the rules. He never said DL would take delivery of the CSeries on schedule, just that they wouldn't pay the tariff. In fact he explicitly said it may cause a delay. It may be that the tariff is overruled via NAFTA arbitration or some other rule in the meantime and then they can just start taking delivery from Montreal manufactured aircraft.

No, I misread the idea that was being discussed.

jetmatt777 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:51 pm

Is there a legal loophole to doing the final assembly in the USA? For example ferry the aircraft to Mobile from Canada in a mostly complete state, but installing the final part in Mobile? Say the installation of the exit signs?

How does that work and what constitues a complete product?

Skywatcher · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:34 pm

This move would be great for all parties. As an aggrieved Canadian (Quebec-even worse) taxpayer I would far rather our "subsidized gift" go to our amigos in Mexico. I believe that Bombardier has a cable assembly plant in Mexico (Queratero?) which doesn't hurt.

PPVRA · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:54 pm

Skywatcher wrote:
This move would be great for all parties. As an aggrieved Canadian (Quebec-even worse) taxpayer I would far rather our "subsidized gift" go to our amigos in Mexico. I believe that Bombardier has a cable assembly plant in Mexico (Queratero?) which doesn't hurt.

The whole idea behind subsidizing the Delta deal was to get a very large name behind the C Series. AeroMexico is a great airline, but it isn’t the powerhouse Delta Air Lines is or have it’s global brand recognition. This deal wouldn’t be great for any of the parties involved, other than maybe AeroMexico. Of course, it’s still far better than cancelling the order.....

bmacleod · Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:57 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Pratt is really destroying the CS program, and they show no signs of digging out of this mess anytime in the next year. They sure didn't meet their predictions in 2017.

PW - they build the engines but how are destroying the CS? Are the engines behind schedule?

Also do those photos hint to a AM order?

Super80Fan · Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm

Great job Boeing, still screwing the consumer over. Now instead of flying in a comfortable C-Series on the 2 side I now have to suffer a 737 ride where everyone is cramped and feels tighter due to the 1960's design.

CarlosSi · Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:24 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
Is there a legal loophole to doing the final assembly in the USA? For example ferry the aircraft to Mobile from Canada in a mostly complete state, but installing the final part in Mobile? Say the installation of the exit signs?

How does that work and what constitues a complete product?

I'm not sure about that last part, but Boeing has argued that the import tariff will also/will apply/should also apply for any imported parts for the C Series, so even if final assembly happens in Mobile, the fact that many of the parts were created outside the US supposedly warrants a tariff on them.

I do feel like at that point a 300% tariff could and should at least be reduced if say half of the plane's construction happened in the states.

INFINITI329 · Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:29 pm

How many jets would Aeromexico need to take to make a worthy investment?

ExMilitaryEng · Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:00 pm

For a Mobile CSeries FAL, worst case would be that only Canadian parts could be hit by duties.

At least 50% of the CSeries is US sourced. Then the wings + part of the fuselage are from Belfast. (+ Some from China)

Not sure what's left, made in Canada, (the cockpit? The engines?) that would be taxable.

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