ViaAir has been a disaster for the EAS communities in VA and WV, so this is a big win for SHD. They've struggled for many years with poor EAS carriers, including Colgan, Silver, and now ViaAir, with massive delays, sporadic cancellations, etc.
While I would argue that SHD is a glaring example of the EAS program's waste - CHO, IAD and ROA are all within reasonable drives for the SHD catchment area, so there's nothing "essential" about this airport - it will be interesting to see if it can support flying to both ORD and IAD. ORD is already well-served from CHO by four daily departures and Dulles is a 1 hr 45 min drive from SHD.
http://www.newsleader.com/story/news/local/2017/11/21/skywest-take-over-valley-airport-april/882515001/

I don't see the point OO bidding on this, and especially bidding with IAD as a destination. Will the rotation be similar to that being used for CKB, which at least makes some sense from an airport routing perspective?

CKB has potential and supports G4 on its own merits. SHD has always struggled. It was lame when it was operated on a UA code to IAD for years by Colgan (which was actually reasonably reliable for awhile) and OO should know that.

I would think it is all about Skywest trying to find spots to fly some of their CRJ2s that are being removed from the major partners schedules.

Frontier 14

There are more East coast EAS routes out for bid right now. PBG/PQI/BHB. I wonder if they have a bigger plan here.

Don't forget RIC is also less than 2 hours away.

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Frontier14 wrote:

I would think it is all about Skywest trying to find spots to fly some of their CRJ2s that are being removed from the major partners schedules.

Frontier 14

OO is going A$$ over tea kettle to find places for those CR2's and is trying to get as many placed as possible.

Frontier14 wrote:

I would think it is all about Skywest trying to find spots to fly some of their CRJ2s that are being removed from the major partners schedules.

Frontier 14

Removed? From where? They’ve grown their Delta CR2 fleet by more than 24 planes in 2017...

I think they should try somewhere in eastern Kentucky like Pikeville.

I hope that OO does very good on this route. It is nice to see small communities get some respect.

32andBelow wrote:

There are more East coast EAS routes out for bid right now. PBG/PQI/BHB. I wonder if they have a bigger plan here.

American Eagle to Philadelphia with CRJ-200s?

ibthebigd wrote:

I think they should try somewhere in eastern Kentucky like Pikeville.

Being a Kentuckian myself (GO BIG BLUE ! ! !), I would like to see Eastern Kentucky have some air service, but I don't think that CR2s will ever be viable at any of the existing airports there. The Pike County Airport (PVL) main runway is only 5,350' long. The Big Sandy Regional Airport (KSJS) has one runway, but it's only 5,000' long. Contour (LF) flew Jetstream 31s & 32s into PVL under the name Appalachian Air, but that service only lasted nine months, from October 2014 to July 2015. Locair (ZQ) provided off-and-on service at the Lake Cumberland Regional Airport in Somerset (SME) with its 5,800' runway, but couldn't make the service work even with heavily-subsidized routes for its 9-passenger (NOT 19) Fairchild Swearingen Metros IIIs, which often flew with just two or three paying passengers.

OTOH, I think that it would behoove a regional airline to consider service to the London-Corbin Airport (LOZ). That airport, with its 5,750' runway, has hosted a variety of passenger carriers in the past. There is a larger population base there with greater business opportunities.

GSP psgr wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

There are more East coast EAS routes out for bid right now. PBG/PQI/BHB. I wonder if they have a bigger plan here.

American Eagle to Philadelphia with CRJ-200s?

Dont they do must of the At risk under UAX? I was thinking EWR.

SHD-CHO = 26 miles.

IAD-DCA = 24 miles.

Wow.

D L X wrote:

SHD-CHO = 26 miles.

IAD-DCA = 24 miles.

Wow.

That's as the crow flies over a mountain ridge in the case of CHO-SHD.

The drive from CHO to SHD is about 1:10 acording to Google Maps. And I would wager if SHD loses service few people will drive the 1:10 to get a high-fare regional jet connection out of Charlottlesville. They will drive 2:15 to IAD or DCA. for more choices, more nonstops and better fares. That's likely where much of their markets bleeds to today.

knope2001 wrote:

D L X wrote:

SHD-CHO = 26 miles.

IAD-DCA = 24 miles.

Wow.

That's as the crow flies over a mountain ridge in the case of CHO-SHD.

The drive from CHO to SHD is about 1:10 acording to Google Maps. And I would wager if SHD loses service few people will drive the 1:10 to get a high-fare regional jet connection out of Charlottlesville. They will drive 2:15 to IAD or DCA. for more choices, more nonstops and better fares. That's likely where much of their markets bleeds to today.

I strongly doubt it would take me 1:10 to get from SHD to CHO. Not much traffic on I-64. Surface traffic on US-29, though.

It WOULD take an hour to get from DCA to IAD on the surface roads.

Completely within the same area.

knope2001 wrote:

D L X wrote:

SHD-CHO = 26 miles.

IAD-DCA = 24 miles.

Wow.

That's as the crow flies over a mountain ridge in the case of CHO-SHD.

The drive from CHO to SHD is about 1:10 acording to Google Maps. And I would wager if SHD loses service few people will drive the 1:10 to get a high-fare regional jet connection out of Charlottlesville. They will drive 2:15 to IAD or DCA. for more choices, more nonstops and better fares. That's likely where much of their markets bleeds to today.

When i lived in LA it took me AT LEAST that long to get from the outskirts of LA country to LAX

32andBelow wrote:

GSP psgr wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

There are more East coast EAS routes out for bid right now. PBG/PQI/BHB. I wonder if they have a bigger plan here.

American Eagle to Philadelphia with CRJ-200s?

Dont they do must of the At risk under UAX? I was thinking EWR.

Might be harder to shoehorn into existing facility constraints, whereas AA's cutbacks at PHL should leave ample space at Concourse F for a few extra CRJs. At risk stuff is easy to fit into DEN/ORD, EWR might be different. At least that's my thinking.

32andBelow wrote:

knope2001 wrote:

D L X wrote:

SHD-CHO = 26 miles.

IAD-DCA = 24 miles.

Wow.

That's as the crow flies over a mountain ridge in the case of CHO-SHD.

The drive from CHO to SHD is about 1:10 acording to Google Maps. And I would wager if SHD loses service few people will drive the 1:10 to get a high-fare regional jet connection out of Charlottlesville. They will drive 2:15 to IAD or DCA. for more choices, more nonstops and better fares. That's likely where much of their markets bleeds to today.

When i lived in LA it took me AT LEAST that long to get from the outskirts of LA country to LAX

The time came from Google Maps CHO to SHD shortly before I posted it -- it was actually 1:11 at the time. Now (About 9:45pm eastern) it's 1:03.

OO is picking up a ton of EAS flying mostly on the UAX side. They took MIB/ PIB On the AA/AE and HYS on UAX front in the last couple years. LBF, LBL, BFF, and EAR on the UAX recenty. If there’s anything to be learned about cutting EAS funding is that a dependable carrier will trim those subsidies direasticly within the first two year contract period. PAH (OO), GRI, GCK, SUX, JLN (AE) have made it off EAS all together or lowered subsidies significantly since initial award. There’s no doubt OO is looking for a place to fly the 200s but in the process can give these cities viable air service and drop taxpayer subsidies.

Why didn’t OO take DDC?

Looking at SHD some more, it got me thinking. I'm a Virginian, and I've been all over this state -- where the heck is SHD anyway? I have never even noticed it, and I was even in Waynesboro last weekend. The answer is it's halfway between Harrisonburg and Staunton (pronounced Stant'n) in pretty much Nowheresville, VA. If you live in Staunton, CHO is a 45 minute drive on I-64 and US-29 through and around Charlottesville. (Most of that time is at traffic lights in Charlottesville and Staunton.) If you live in Harrisonburg, CHO is a 1 hour drive on US-33 (which admittedly sucks). My guess is that Harrisonburg is a much larger aviation market than Staunton.

In contrast, my trip from Alexandria to Dulles is about an hour in regular traffic.

I'm still left believing that this region has a major airport in CHO, so adding service to SHD seems not to fit the purpose of EAS. BUT, it will undoubtedly be a boon to all the students and visitors to James Madison University that no longer have to do the switchbacks on US-33. Maybe they'll add OKV service next.

SHD has been an EAS market for a while, so this isn't net new service, it's just replacing the existing carrier (via) who is bad at all things airline related.

SHD has always been a relatively strong EAS market. There are plenty of EAS cities whose performance is something to either laugh at or cry about, but that's not the case here. They also had a brief stint with F9 to MCO and they actually had strong loads.

This should be a good one for OO; Same for CKB.I probably wouldn't touch any of the other WV cities if I were them, however.

CHOWahoo wrote:

it will be interesting to see if it can support flying to both ORD and IAD.

It clearly can't support it. That's why you are paying to subsidize it.

If CHO had lower-priced service I could see the idea of EAS service at SHD being redundant. But fares at CHO have always been pricey, though at least there is a decent level of service. I remember the last time I lived in C'Ville I only flew out of CHO once, I was using a reward ticket. Even then I prefered RIC as fares were generally cheaper and the drive down I-64 was miles ahead of the slog up 29 and I-66.

With a lot of EAS markets I think it comes down to the fact that there are airports close enough, with enough service and lowish fares that make the local airport seem not all that attractive -- mostly for price sensitive customers. Hence all that time I spent driving to RIC or crashing at my brother's house in NOVA to catch a morning flight out of DCA.

32andBelow wrote:

Why didn’t OO take DDC?

Probably because of forecasted emplanements and the cost of operating the route. When Pen Air took the routes they did it as a tag on to LBL. Between AA at GCK and OO at LBL the area probably can’t support 300 seats per day.

kevintarmac wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

Why didn’t OO take DDC?

Probably because of forecasted emplanements and the cost of operating the route. When Pen Air took the routes they did it as a tag on to LBL. Between AA at GCK and OO at LBL the area probably can’t support 300 seats per day.

I believe it was reported that SkyWest was going to use LBL in concert with PUB which has a significant larger population area than DDC.

Frontier 14

OO has been taking over midwest EAS routes lately on CRJ2s also. Routes were previously Cape Air or Air Choice One. UIN and CGI start next month. DEC just decided on them as well.

Skywest’s At risk flying is a huge money maker for them, at least when I was there 08-15. If I remember right on some of the break even pax loads on the CR2 was somewhere around 20-30 pax. SkyWest has sure bumped up its game and wouldn’t enter an at risk market if it wasn’t going to make some kind of money. That’s their thing, especially with EAS communities would rather have OO fly the route for reliability issues.

kevintarmac wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

Why didn’t OO take DDC?

Probably because of forecasted emplanements and the cost of operating the route. When Pen Air took the routes they did it as a tag on to LBL. Between AA at GCK and OO at LBL the area probably can’t support 300 seats per day.

DDC is bigger than LBL and they could have operated it as a tag on. In EAS you can request all the subsidy you need to make the route profitable to a 5% margin. Just interesting they would leave this one while taking such a dinky place like LBL.

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

a/c dxer wrote:

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

I'm far less optimistic about that working out.

- Love, someone from WV who knows that market pretty well.

kcrwflyer wrote:

a/c dxer wrote:

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

I'm far less optimistic about that working out.

- Love, someone from WV who knows that market pretty well.

It doesn't have to work very well since it's EAS and subsidized. It should work better than Via Air to CLT, though I agree it's a tough one.

I'm kind of surprised Skywest is splitting all these markets (CKB, SHD, LWB) with one flight to IAD and one to ORD. I guess they're hoping to stimulate these markets better with the longer westbound flight to ORD. However, when IRROPS inevitably hit, it could really stink for these passengers with only one flight from each hub.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

kcrwflyer wrote:

a/c dxer wrote:

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

I'm far less optimistic about that working out.

- Love, someone from WV who knows that market pretty well.

It doesn't have to work very well since it's EAS and subsidized. It should work better than Via Air to CLT, though I agree it's a tough one.

I'm kind of surprised Skywest is splitting all these markets (CKB, SHD, LWB) with one flight to IAD and one to ORD. I guess they're hoping to stimulate these markets better with the longer westbound flight to ORD. However, when IRROPS inevitably hit, it could really stink for these passengers with only one flight from each hub.

It's probably more about rotating the airplanes.

kcrwflyer wrote:

a/c dxer wrote:

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

I'm far less optimistic about that working out.

- Love, someone from WV who knows that market pretty well.

LWB actually has a better chance of working then SHD.

Lewisburg has the Greenbrier resort and is the closes airport to Snowshoe ski resort just down the road from it. During the summer time they also have the PGA tour stop at the Greenbrier. Will be interesting how ORD LWB does as that hasn't been done before. It has always been either IAD Lwb or CLT lwb.

The origin traffic out of LWB will be trash but destination traffic could be pretty decent.

a/c dxer wrote:

LWB actually has a better chance of working then SHD.

Lewisburg has the Greenbrier resort and is the closes airport to Snowshoe ski resort just down the road from it. During the summer time they also have the PGA tour stop at the Greenbrier. Will be interesting how ORD LWB does as that hasn't been done before. It has always been either IAD Lwb or CLT lwb.

The origin traffic out of LWB will be trash but destination traffic could be pretty decent.

I took a look back at enplanement data from 2014 when Silver was providing service to both SHD and LWB to IAD.

SHD had 9,422 enplanements in 2014. In 2016, SHD had fallen to 5,442.
LWB had 8,604 enplanements in 2014. In 2016, LWB had fallen to 4,965.

These falls are in large part because of the transition to Via Air I suspect, but the two markets seem similar in enplanements.

a/c dxer wrote:

kcrwflyer wrote:

a/c dxer wrote:

Didn't want to start a new thread. But OO also received EAS for LWB. Will be operating from both IAD and ORD to LWB.

I'm far less optimistic about that working out.

- Love, someone from WV who knows that market pretty well.

LWB actually has a better chance of working then SHD.

Lewisburg has the Greenbrier resort and is the closes airport to Snowshoe ski resort just down the road from it. During the summer time they also have the PGA tour stop at the Greenbrier. Will be interesting how ORD LWB does as that hasn't been done before. It has always been either IAD Lwb or CLT lwb.

The origin traffic out of LWB will be trash but destination traffic could be pretty decent.

Didn't DL fly to LWB seasonally in the past?

Delta did fly to LWB with CRJ200's. they have had so many differnt carries its hard to keep trak

I found this from 1986 (Air Atlanta) B727-100's to ATL and JFK

http://www.departedflights.com/CC092786p1.html

FlyPNS1 wrote:

It doesn't have to work very well since it's EAS and subsidized. It should work better than Via Air to CLT, though I agree it's a tough one.

Yeah surprisingly enough, EAS service can still lose money. lol. I haven't seen the bid. I hope they're planning for a 20% LF.

32andBelow wrote:

It's probably more about rotating the airplanes.

The CKB aircraft routing is ORD-CKB-IAD-CKB-ORD. I don't believe OO has any CR2 flying for UA in IAD at all. So there's probably no operational need to rotate any airplanes over there. I assume LWB will have a similar schedule.

a/c dxer wrote:

LWB actually has a better chance of working then SHD.

Lewisburg has the Greenbrier resort and is the closes airport to Snowshoe ski resort just down the road from it. During the summer time they also have the PGA tour stop at the Greenbrier. Will be interesting how ORD LWB does as that hasn't been done before. It has always been either IAD Lwb or CLT lwb.

The origin traffic out of LWB will be trash but destination traffic could be pretty decent.

You'll have a much easier time finding service that historically worked at SHD than LWB. In theory, what you say about LWB is true, but the execution of said theory has not ever worked out to my knowledge. Nobody flies to Snowshoe. The PGA event lasts a week or so? My money's on SHD all day.

RJNUT wrote:

Delta did fly to LWB with CRJ200's. they have had so many differnt carries its hard to keep trak

LWB has had a very impressive array of services come and go through the decades. The vast majority of which has been subsidized by EAS or the Greenbrier itself. As i said above, nothing has ever really performed. The type of destination marketing that it takes to fill airplanes into a resort like that hasn't ever properly existed.

IMO, if AA weren't parking the DH1's, I think 2 of those to CLT would be the best option for service to that airport. But that's an irrelevant opinion for all sorts of reasons.