Holy sh*t.

Compared to the rest of the worlds ULCC I always thought that the US carriers didn't have enough planes on order. F9 is really primed to grow now, assuming that F9 retires half of their current fleet they will still have well over 200 planes.

Wizz Air is really surprising...Someone major is bound to drop out soon enough (AB was the first, but their issues were a lot more complicated) with all of the capacity coming in the next ten years. I just don't see how all the major legacy airlines will be able to compete with Wizz, Norwegian, Ryan and so on.

Newbiepilot wrote:

Mariner, Yes there are risks... big risks. The bankruptcy was 10 years ago and 4 years ago, Frontier was deeply in the hole. It is a remarkable turnaround, but are they ready to double or triple in size in the next decade?

Bill Franke thinks they are and that's really all that matters.

mariner

MoreMiles wrote:

This is a JL signature deal. Bill Franke, the managing partner, flew to Dubai to sign according to the BBC. But JL is on record saying that Indigo will not be paying the full $49.5 billion.

No airline pays full price on big orders (more than one, and even then I think it unlikely) and you always see discounts which vary by airline.

Newbiepilot wrote:

Couprace wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Here's the breakdown of aircraft between airlines. As other have said, that's a hell of a lot of planes it does seem extremely ambitious.

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/930696421791191040

Frontier is referred to as an ultra-low cost airline operating out of Denver since 1994. In 23 years of operation their fleet has grown to 73 Narrow body Jets and they have 66 on order presently. The new order would bring the total back log to 200 planes. We are not talking a high growth environment like India, or Asia here. By what stretch the imagination would this airline need to have such a backlog. Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. There is a lot of speculation there

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/ ... er-denver/

Frontier all but bailed on KPIT after arriving there a couple years ago amid some fanfare in the Pittsburgh area. I'm guessing Frontier couldn't hang in the market with WN and NK.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/de ... 1709200068

Jayafe wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

But I guess FlyDubai can, right?

Well, I'm guessing that if Frontier had ordered the MAX, you'd be more than happy to agree with him.

Regardless, what the hell does Frontier - an ULCC in the US - have to do with FlyDubai other than the fact that they both placed big orders this week?

PlanesNTrains wrote:

Regardless, what the hell does Frontier - an ULCC in the US - have to do with FlyDubai other than the fact that they both placed big orders this week?

You just said it, they both placed big narrow body orders this week and what is discussed as unviable? The Airbus order. I do not see a similar discussion for the FlyDubai order.

The 430 frame order distributes over four airlines, surly with the possibility to adjust if one of the airlines can not take all of its allocated frames.

Anyway, the FlyDubai PR team is still wondering what bus hit them yesterday and spoiled the party

Olddog wrote:

Anyway, the FlyDubai PR team is still wondering what bus hit them yesterday and spoiled the party

Exactly. Poor folks. Got bested by a bunch of out of town airlines.

How to buy or lease 430 airliners. Very interesting article on the effects of easy money.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazingl ... 09959.html

In the US the large amount of cars leased in the last few years have created a glut on the used car market. What is the long term effect of having so many lease aircraft returned to their lessors before D checks? There are only a few Allegiants in the world and Delta will eventually buy new( I kid, I kid.)

I would love to see some of these converted to the C Series!!! Still dreaming of seeing Frontier colors on a C Series!!

mariner wrote:

LockheedBBD wrote:

Perhaps the deal was too good to refuse.

If an airline doesn't believe it can fly the aircraft profitably then no deal is too good to refuse. No one wants to be stuck with a big bunch of aircraft that are losing money.

mariner

Even if an airline has no profitable routes, that is not a reason to turn down a hot deal on a piece of equipment. As long as the deal is in-the-money on the carrier or its friends, versus what they have now, it is a good deal to sign.

Flighty wrote:

Even if an airline has no profitable routes, that is not a reason to turn down a hot deal on a piece of equipment. As long as the deal is in-the-money on the carrier or its friends, versus what they have now, it is a good deal to sign.

It would have to be a verrrrry hot deal, much like the one Airbus offered Republic if they would order a big bunch of A319Neo's at a time when Frontier (then owned by Republic) was losing bulk money. The deal was in Republic's name, not in Frontier's name, and Indigo paid Republic to buy the aircraft deal, seperate from buying the airline.

The circumstances are different now and - I believe - the deals will be in the names of the four airlines. Indigo may be underwriting the deals, of course.

mariner

Deal has been finalized.

Airbus and Indigo Partners Finalize Orders For 430 A320neo Family Aircraft

KarelXWB wrote:

Deal has been finalized.

Airbus and Indigo Partners Finalize Orders For 430 A320neo Family Aircraft

Now to speculate where they are going to go...

nmdrdh787 wrote:

Now to speculate where they are going to go...

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

I don't understand this deal from a F9 standpoint at all, but I hope they succeed as it could be good for airports in my neck of the woods.

cledaybuck wrote:

I don't understand this deal from a F9 standpoint at all, but I hope they succeed as it could be good for airports in my neck of the woods.

I don't either.

F9 is a rudderless boat, seemingly taking pot shots in the dark all over the US looking for routes that magically 'work'.

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

Varsity1 wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

I don't understand this deal from a F9 standpoint at all, but I hope they succeed as it could be good for airports in my neck of the woods.

I don't either.

F9 is a rudderless boat, seemingly taking pot shots in the dark all over the US looking for routes that magically 'work'.

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

Not so sure I would define F9 as a "rudderless boat", but one that is now printing money for the owners. Hence, putting more aircraft in the skies (this plane order) has the potential for even more money for the owner's piggy bank.

Frontier 14

Varsity1 wrote:

F9 is a rudderless boat, seemingly taking pot shots in the dark all over the US looking for routes that magically 'work'.

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

I wish I had a "rudderless boat" making as much money as Frontier does.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/analysi ... s-for-ipo/

"........profitability jumped from a 14.3% operating margin in 2014 to 18.5% in 2016. Perhaps more impressively, Frontier expanded its operating margins between 2015 and 2016 even as most of its US airline peers saw margins and profits go in the opposite direction.

What you’re left with is a carrier that generated a $317 million operating profit and a $200 million net profit off of $1.71 billion in revenue in 2016".

mariner

mariner wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

F9 is a rudderless boat, seemingly taking pot shots in the dark all over the US looking for routes that magically 'work'.

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

I wish I had a "rudderless boat" making as much money as Frontier does.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/analysi ... s-for-ipo/

"........profitability jumped from a 14.3% operating margin in 2014 to 18.5% in 2016. Perhaps more impressively, Frontier expanded its operating margins between 2015 and 2016 even as most of its US airline peers saw margins and profits go in the opposite direction.

What you’re left with is a carrier that generated a $317 million operating profit and a $200 million net profit off of $1.71 billion in revenue in 2016".

mariner

This might come as a surprise to you but air travel is a commodity. Every 121 air carrier in the United States is turning a profit right now, most hand over fist.

F9 is behind everyone else (except Spirit) on labor contracts, their pilots are closer to a strike than anyone else. When they go market rate, along with the other labor groups, F9's bottom line will look the same or worse than everyone else.

None of this changes the fact that they have marginal/no strategy moving forward.

Varsity1 wrote:

This might come as a surprise to you but air travel is a commodity. Every 121 air carrier in the United States is turning a profit right now, most hand over fist.

Not really a surprise to me. I do read - LOL. I am interested in other airlines generally.

I still think it's quite clever for a "rudderless ship" to make as much money as Frontier does, and the model seems - to me - to be very sensible.

Varsity1 wrote:

F9 is behind everyone else (except Spirit) on labor contracts, their pilots are closer to a strike than anyone else. When they go market rate, along with the other labor groups, F9's bottom line will look the same or worse than everyone else.

When that happens, we'll see. I don't know what the future will bring, but William Franke is a smart enough cookie to deal with most thing that turn up. I remember the Spirit pilots going on strike on his (financial) watch. The strike didn't stop Spirit making shedloads of money.

Varsity1 wrote:

None of this changes the fact that they have marginal/no strategy moving forward.

I've been following Frontier in some depth since 1998, and I think the present strategy is remarkably sensible. But there - I'm repeating myself.

mariner

Varsity1 wrote:

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

When Allegiant switched its business model to how it operates now and started opening new routes, the A.net "experts" were saying things like it was selecting routes by throwing darts at a map. Funny how perceptions change.

FATFlyer wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

Like an unsuccessful version of Allegiant.

When Allegiant switched its business model to how it operates now and started opening new routes, the A.net "experts" were saying things like it was selecting routes by throwing darts at a map. Funny how perceptions change.

Both airlines move routes rapidly. How they do in a downturn will show who has the robust system.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Both airlines move routes rapidly. How they do in a downturn will show who has the robust system.

Lightsaber

Allegiant already went thru the years of the Great Recession under this business model. While the financials did go down during that period, they were profitable every quarter during that downturn. Most airlines could not say that.

Congrats to Airbus too. And the best of that fantastic deal is that more as the half of the airplane will be build at our Hamburg Airbus factory - it will secure a lot of jobs here for a long time!