A330freak wrote:

Here's the breakdown of aircraft between airlines. As other have said, that's a hell of a lot of planes it does seem extremely ambitious.

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/930696421791191040

Frontier is referred to as an ultra-low cost airline operating out of Denver since 1994. In 23 years of operation their fleet has grown to 73 Narrow body Jets and they have 66 on order presently. The new order would bring the total back log to 200 planes. We are not talking a high growth environment like India, or Asia here. By what stretch the imagination would this airline need to have such a backlog. Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

speedbored wrote:

What most people don't seem to realise is that even an MoU almost always contains a whole load of contractual commitments, mostly relating to the huge amount of work required, by many parties, to turn the MoU into firm contracts.

Makes me wonder, and I guess you know the answer, in my industry it is quite normal that the customer has to pay for getting a quotation for something complex, and I know our customers sometimes spend millions on preparing offers for large infrastructure projects, and at least in part get those paid if the offer has itself money value for the customer (feasibility part, risk analysis of and such).

At what point does money start changing hands between customer and OEM?

Best regards
Thomas

Couprace wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Here's the breakdown of aircraft between airlines. As other have said, that's a hell of a lot of planes it does seem extremely ambitious.

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/930696421791191040

Frontier is referred to as an ultra-low cost airline operating out of Denver since 1994. In 23 years of operation their fleet has grown to 73 Narrow body Jets and they have 66 on order presently. The new order would bring the total back log to 200 planes. We are not talking a high growth environment like India, or Asia here. By what stretch the imagination would this airline need to have such a backlog. Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. There is a lot of speculation there

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/ ... er-denver/

Newbiepilot wrote:

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. There is a lot of speculation there

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/ ... er-denver/

I am pretty sure in Frontier's case, they will probably replace most of their older frames.

Volaris has both Mexico and Costa Rica to grow, and Wizzair will probably also replace their older frames.

I can even see a new business model where all these airlines return their Aircraft to the lessor and run solely on this order....

This is a great accomplishment to both parties for putting it together. I have been involved in doing negotiations and there are many things that go into it from different departments. BUT, before everyone knights him, remember this is NOT a signed contract, and doesnt mean it will be signed. These deals can go south very easily. A lot of this is PR to make it sound like its the mother of aviation when reality is another issue.

santi319 wrote:

I am pretty sure in Frontier's case, they will probably replace most of their older frames.

Frontier actually already has enough A320neos on order to replace their entire Ceo fleet if they want to. Adding 134 more planes to their orderbook means that F9 is poised for some significant growth, unless Indigo is now already ordering Neos to replace earlier Neos in their airline's fleets.

With Wizz Air total Neo orders (including this MoU) - total Ceos (in fleet and on order) = +144 planes.
With Frontier = +140 planes
With Volaris = +43 planes
Jetsmart = +~70 planes

PS: If anyone here edits wikipedia...please stop just replacing planes on order with this MoU and ignoring any Neo's previously on order at least until we have more clairty. Thanks.

tommy1808 wrote:

At what point does money start changing hands between customer and OEM?

As with almost everything, it varies enormously from order to order.

A new customer wanting a single frame with non-standard options might have to start paying for some things almost right from the start of negotiations, whereas a large existing customer who just wants to order some additional frames "exactly like a previous order" might not be required to pay anything (yes, sometimes even deposits) until those frames hit the start of production.

Basically, everything is up for negotiation, but the OEMs are far more willing to take a risk on their up-front costs for those orders that they consider most likely to come to fruition.

I'm sure that Indigo will have the flexibility to switch around these ordered aircraft between their different airlines. I'm sure also that they will have new airline ventures in the medium term which should could source aircraft from this order.

Congrats to John Leahy. No wonder he wanted to stay on longer.

Taxi645 wrote:

In regards to the C-series:
1 Perhaps still too soon after the Airbus/Bombardier deal with perhaps more to follow?
2 Or didn't fit in the plan?

If anything, I would say that this benefits the CSeries' prospects. With an additional ~450 A32xneo on the orderbooks, it just became a lot harder (IE expensive) to get an A320neo production slot, despite the inevitable production rate increase from Airbus. Once Airbus has joined the CSeries program it will surely make more sense to direct some customers on the smaller end of the capacity spectrum towards the CSeries. Customers like Adria Airlines (just an example) who have A319s and regional jets will find it harder to justify the expense of an all A320neo fleet whereas a fleet of CS300s would have lower capital costs, similar capacity to their current aircraft and would also give them the possibility of operating CS100s alongside. You could probably say the same for CSA and Croatian.

727200 wrote:

BUT, before everyone knights him, remember this is NOT a signed contract, and doesnt mean it will be signed.

For sure we need to keep in mind that it is only an MOU and that the order is not signed, but nevertheless it will be very significant when/if it is finalised.

Couprace wrote:

Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

This attitude from Boeing is what steered Jetblue into the arms of Airbus. Today Jetblue has ~180 Airbuses in the fleet. How very reckless of John Leahy.

ap305 wrote:

I would bet on a group of airlines run by a shrewd equity management entity than an airline dependent on connecting traffic that may vanish with changing market dynamics....

I wouldn't, and by the way the "connecting traffic" airlines are banking similar profit ratios.

I just did a quick roundtrip on Frontier and like them. I am fine with their pricing strategy... really. If a small request could be made that maybe they read - please, pretty please with sugar on top, a bit more padding in the seats on these planes.

134 new aircraft.

https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... 15_Huge_LA

I'll believe it when I see it. I'm sure half are replacement aircraft and the rest aren't firm.

Newbiepilot wrote:

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. There is a lot of speculation there

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/ ... er-denver/

Deliveries are stretched out until 2026. It's not like Frontier will have a fleet of 200 aircraft tomorrow.

Wow. That's an amazing order. Clearly frontier is planning to go head to head with the likes of WN and Spirit with this order. 201 new NEOs received over 8 years, is 25 per year, or a new plane every 2 weeks for the next 8 years. Even if 73 of the 201 were replacements for existing planes, then they will still be nearly tripling their fleet in the next 8 years.


*edited to add the word 'nearly'

ODwyerPW wrote:

Wow. That's an amazing order. Clearly frontier is planning to go head to head with the likes of WN and Spirit with this order. 201 new NEOs received over 8 years, is 25 per year, or a new plane every 2 weeks for the next 8 years. Even if 73 of the 201 were replacements for existing planes, then they will still be nearly tripling their fleet in the next 8 years.


*edited to add the word 'nearly'

Well, if this all happens, given the size and scale it just kind of maps out the future of the U.S. domestic aviation industry.

An amazing order. To me it looks like Leahy advanced the plot on his January magic trick to make a big splash at the show..and I don't say that in any disrespectful way. I would've done the same. Any wagers on firm vs. options? I can't imagine any lenders lining up to finance the whole package as firm and binding. So 150, 200, 250 firm by year end? Any way you look at it it's a crowning achievement for John and no better way to go out with some shine on a reputation that has recently been under the scope. But it's nothing $20B can't cure. I honestly don't know many people capable of saying "I can book close to half our annual revenue in one press conference".

how Indigo is the owner and controls Frontier if a foreigner investor can own olny a maximum 20% stake of a US airline?

Also seems crazy that the 319s are being converted to 320s. It's hard to imagine there being enough routes that can sustain 320/321 service with ULCC seating, especially without hubs/connecting traffic to fill the seats.

I see quite a bit of disbelief being echoed about this order by a holding company with control of several growing airlines. It wasn't that long ago that folks were mocking LionAir 739 orders.

Perhaps it reflects that buying power is shifting and folks aren't ready for it. Big wealthy airlines have been the domain of North American and European companies for decades. The BRIC (with maybe less of the BR part at the moment) emergence is real. There is serious money concentrated in the hands of the few in these very large populous countries. They are now spending and investing that money afar.

Congratulations to Airbus. Clearly they have a product that suits many folks!

stlgph wrote:

134 new aircraft.

https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... 15_Huge_LA

Your thread was merged into the existing topic, as it was part of a larger order.

LPSHobby wrote:

how Indigo is the owner and controls Frontier if a foreigner investor can own olny a maximum 20% stake of a US airline?

Indigo Partners is a US private equity firm. There is no relation with IndiGo Airlines in India.

LPSHobby wrote:

how Indigo is the owner and controls Frontier if a foreigner investor can own olny a maximum 20% stake of a US airline?

Huh? Indigo Partners is a US Equity firm.

Couprace wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Here's the breakdown of aircraft between airlines. As other have said, that's a hell of a lot of planes it does seem extremely ambitious.

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/930696421791191040

Frontier is referred to as an ultra-low cost airline operating out of Denver since 1994. In 23 years of operation their fleet has grown to 73 Narrow body Jets and they have 66 on order presently. The new order would bring the total back log to 200 planes. We are not talking a high growth environment like India, or Asia here. By what stretch the imagination would this airline need to have such a backlog. Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

From my seat, it has been these types of deals which have taken the A320 family from a minor player to the clear market leader in its class over the last 30 years, overturning the incumbent product in the process.
The failure rate is remarkably small.
Airbus have demonstrated an incredibly sure-footed flair with the A320 family.
To suggest otherwise is to ignore reality.

The Amedeo A380 deal is a different situation altogether.

Rgds

I'll call it out since nobody else has directly said it: This order for Frontier is likely foreshadowing a purchase of Spirit/Allegiant in the relatively near future. 200 neos replacing about 70 ceos seems crazy, but using it to also replace the 100ish Spirit or 91 Allegiant ceo/MD80 aircraft makes this much more believable.

This is a JL signature deal. Bill Franke, the managing partner, flew to Dubai to sign according to the BBC. But JL is on record saying that Indigo will not be paying the full $49.5 billion.

TerminalD wrote:

I'll believe it when I see it. I'm sure half are replacement aircraft and the rest aren't firm.

Perhaps half the order are the options.

lowfareair wrote:

I'll call it out since nobody else has directly said it: This order for Frontier is likely foreshadowing a purchase of Spirit/Allegiant in the relatively near future. 200 neos replacing about 70 ceos seems crazy, but using it to also replace the 100ish Spirit or 91 Allegiant ceo/MD80 aircraft makes this much more believable.

NK already has a ton of aircraft on order, enough to retire older aircraft and grow significantly on top of that, but I think G4 would be an easier acquisition target. I'd add JetBlue to the list of possibilities though.,

Congratulations Airbus and Indigo Partners! What a magnificent order. With deliveries stretching out to 2026, that's 9 years into the future. It makes me wonder what kind of pricing we're talking about here. I'm pretty sure these are the cheapest A320-series ever sold.

msycajun wrote:

lowfareair wrote:

I'll call it out since nobody else has directly said it: This order for Frontier is likely foreshadowing a purchase of Spirit/Allegiant in the relatively near future. 200 neos replacing about 70 ceos seems crazy, but using it to also replace the 100ish Spirit or 91 Allegiant ceo/MD80 aircraft makes this much more believable.

NK already has a ton of aircraft on order, enough to retire older aircraft and grow significantly on top of that, but I think G4 would be an easier acquisition target. I'd add JetBlue to the list of possibilities though.,

S7

They only have 55 neos ordered/delivered though, so if Indigo wants an all neo fleet, as they tend to want younger fleets than average, they will need a bunch more for it.

I doubt it would be JetBlue as they have shown little care towards a premium airline and trying to turn JetBlue into a ULCC would erode all of the (profitable) Goodwill gained this far.

LPSHobby wrote:

how Indigo is the owner and controls Frontier if a foreigner investor can own olny a maximum 20% stake of a US airline?

That doesn't make sense, there's no foreign investor involved. Indigo Partners is not an airline and it is not foreign. It is a US corporation that invests and sometimes owns in ULCC airlines, and has had great success. It was an early investor in Ryanair, for example, and was the majority owner in Spirit Airlines until it cashed out.

mariner

Interesting that the people who are downplaying this MoU a la "They will never take all of them" do not say the same or anything about the FlyDubai MoU...

KarelXWB wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. There is a lot of speculation there

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/ ... er-denver/

Deliveries are stretched out until 2026. It's not like Frontier will have a fleet of 200 aircraft tomorrow.

I really wonder if Frontier has a plan for what to do with over 200 airplanes in 10 years. They have done a good job of lowering CASM and increasing ancillary revenue, but their network is in a constant state of flux. Look how many new routes they are launching:

https://www.flyfrontier.com/plan-and-book/route-map/

They are adding like 85 routes. They don't advertise all the routes that they are cancelling, but in recent threads we've seen large changes. They have orders to triple in size. I really wonder what they'll do with those planes and how they'll earn a profit.

With this surprise news by Indigo and F9, we can probably expect the removal of the remaining A319s (18) from the Frontier fleet in the next couple of years. Makes me wonder if the CS300 will become part of Frontier's future for those routes that are too thin for the 320s. Each new day is a surprise, and today's news has made for a good one.

Frontier 14

MoreMiles wrote:

This is a JL signature deal. Bill Franke, the managing partner, flew to Dubai to sign according to the BBC. But JL is on record saying that Indigo will not be paying the full $49.5 billion.

What was implied by the "will not be paying the full $49.5 billion" comment? Isn't it expected that they'll get at least 50% off?

Newbiepilot wrote:

I really wonder if Frontier has a plan for what to do with over 200 airplanes in 10 years. They have done a good job of lowering CASM and increasing ancillary revenue, but their network is in a constant state of flux. Look how many new routes they are launching:

https://www.flyfrontier.com/plan-and-book/route-map/

They are adding like 85 routes. They don't advertise all the routes that they are cancelling, but in recent threads we've seen large changes. They have orders to triple in size. I really wonder what they'll do with those planes and how they'll earn a profit.

They're making darn good profits now - under William Franke of Indigo - so why should that not continue?

We've discussed the route map in several threads, and Frontier's attitude is that it flies where people want to go - but only when they want to go there. So they have one of the most seasonal route maps of any airline and many of the cities that are dropped for the winter will come back in the spring - and vice versa.. It's almost as if there is a summer route pap and then a different winter route map.

mariner

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

astuteman wrote:

Couprace wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Here's the breakdown of aircraft between airlines. As other have said, that's a hell of a lot of planes it does seem extremely ambitious.

-Frontier: 100 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-JetSMART: 56 A320neo, 14 A321neo
-Volaris: 46 A320neo, 34 A321neo
-Wizzair: 72 A320neo, 74 A321neo

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/930696421791191040

Frontier is referred to as an ultra-low cost airline operating out of Denver since 1994. In 23 years of operation their fleet has grown to 73 Narrow body Jets and they have 66 on order presently. The new order would bring the total back log to 200 planes. We are not talking a high growth environment like India, or Asia here. By what stretch the imagination would this airline need to have such a backlog. Leahy has presided over a sales organization which books multi-million dollar jets with little or no discipline. One needs to look no further than the Amedeo order for proof of this. Airbus management should be chastised for allowing these kinds of orders.

From my seat, it has been these types of deals which have taken the A320 family from a minor player to the clear market leader in its class over the last 30 years, overturning the incumbent product in the process.
The failure rate is remarkably small.
Airbus have demonstrated an incredibly sure-footed flair with the A320 family.
To suggest otherwise is to ignore reality.

The Amedeo A380 deal is a different situation altogether.

Rgds

Clearly The A320 is a winner. But it is also true the Leahy and company will create bogus orders for P.R. purposes. There is no indication that any of the airlines in the Indigo portfolio have the need for such large number of aircraft. I'd love to read the terms of this agreement. This deal is right up there with Amedeo. It will be interesting to see just how long this bogus crap stays in the backlog.

In the end the proof is in the deliveries, and the profitability, can't hide from the truth there.

flyguy84 wrote:

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

But I guess FlyDubai can, right?

Damn!! Hopefully this means new routes and increased frequencies on F9!

flyguy84 wrote:

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

That's what some a.netters said when Frontier ordered 80 x Neo family at the Paris Air Show in 2011.

They seem to be sustaining that just fine.

mariner

mariner wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

That's what some a.netters said when Frontier ordered 80 x Neo family at the Paris Air Show in 2011.

They seem to be sustaining that just fine.

mariner

They haven’t even gotten a quarter of the aircraft from the 2011 order in their fleet yet. I’m interested in seeing their expansion plans with all these aircraft.

Frontier14 wrote:

With this surprise news by Indigo and F9, we can probably expect the removal of the remaining A319s (18) from the Frontier fleet in the next couple of years. Makes me wonder if the CS300 will become part of Frontier's future for those routes that are too thin for the 320s. Each new day is a surprise, and today's news has made for a good one.

Frontier 14

Could be. Kind of looks like they are secretly re-hubbing DEN. SBN-DEN was kind of thin for F9 while it lasted with average passenger loads of 118 on an A319 three times a week but a CS300 would make that kind of route profitable. Routes into the Dakotas like Into the future airport at Williston also comes to mind.

ikolkyo wrote:

They haven’t even gotten a quarter of the aircraft from the 2011 order in their fleet yet.

Like I they seem to be sustaining it just fine. Frontier was on the verge of dissolution when Bill Franke, of Indigo Partners, acquired the airline in 2013. Within less than two years it was making big money.

mariner

Newbiepilot wrote:

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. They are adding like 85 routes. They don't advertise all the routes that they are cancelling, but in recent threads we've seen large changes. They have orders to triple in size. I really wonder what they'll do with those planes and how they'll earn a profit.

I often enjoy your posts. You make well thought out compelling arguments. However, you have to let your Boeing bias go on this one. If they had announced they were replacing the fleet with 8MAX (320) and 10MAX (321) over the next 8 years and poising themselves for growth, I suspect you'd be singing a different tune. If not, then accept my apology for jumping to a conclusion.

John L just delivered his swan song and it was a beauty. I would like to see, as much as the next guy living on the North American continent, Boeing offer something more competitive because it spells jobs on the North American continent, which is where I live (so I have a bit of a protectionist bias... I admit it). However, it's become a bit like watching the Big3 in the late 70s early 80s, the malaise years. Got to stop pretending the 737 is good enough and get on with the replacement. This scenario is going to play out time and time again, which means the 60/40 split continues.. with Airbus continuing to sell 50% more narrow bodies than Boeing. Boeing records 100.... Airbus will record 150... Still allot of sales for both producers. But let's not react with too much shock as airliners continue to select the better machine. (for sometime now, the A320 family has been the better machine for most airliners.. I'd say I've drawn a pretty opened minded conclusion for someone with a protectionist bias.. LOL )

Congratulations to Airbus and Team Indigo for striking a deal. Look forward to hearing more details soon.

ikolkyo wrote:

mariner wrote:

flyguy84 wrote:

Something smells fishy here... Frontier can't sustain that level of growth.

That's what some a.netters said when Frontier ordered 80 x Neo family at the Paris Air Show in 2011.

They seem to be sustaining that just fine.

mariner

They haven’t even gotten a quarter of the aircraft from the 2011 order in their fleet yet. I’m interested in seeing their expansion plans with all these aircraft.

It is not that long ago that A320neo family deliveries started. Meanwhile Frontier takes also still delivery of A321ceo. This year up to now 5 A321ceo and 9 A320neo.
Because of the backlog, it will be quite a while, before frames out of this MoU will be delivered.

ODwyerPW wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

I do see risk with Frontier. Their route network has frequently been changing. There is not much stability, which makes it really hard to know where they can put 200 more airplanes. They are adding like 85 routes. They don't advertise all the routes that they are cancelling, but in recent threads we've seen large changes. They have orders to triple in size. I really wonder what they'll do with those planes and how they'll earn a profit.

I often enjoy your posts. You make well thought out compelling arguments. However, you have to let your Boeing bias go on this one. If they had announced they were replacing the fleet with 8MAX (320) and 10MAX (321) over the next 8 years and poising themselves for growth, I suspect you'd be singing a different tune. If not, then accept my apology for jumping to a conclusion.

John L just delivered his swan song and it was a beauty. I would like to see, as much as the next guy living on the North American continent, Boeing offer something more competitive because it spells jobs on the North American continent, which is where I live (so I have a bit of a protectionist bias... I admit it). However, it's become a bit like watching the Big3 in the late 70s early 80s, the malaise years. Got to stop pretending the 737 is good enough and get on with the replacement. This scenario is going to play out time and time again, which means the 60/40 split continues.. with Airbus continuing to sell 50% more narrow bodies than Boeing. Boeing records 100.... Airbus will record 150... Still allot of sales for both producers. But let's not react with too much shock as airliners continue to select the better machine. (for sometime now, the A320 family has been the better machine for most airliners.. I'd say I've drawn a pretty opened minded conclusion for someone with a protectionist bias.. LOL )

Congratulations to Airbus and Team Indigo for striking a deal. Look forward to hearing more details soon.

I don’t think it is Boeing bias (I also commented on FlyDubais big order), but rather recent memories of Frontier being on the verge of insolvency in 2013. They went from completely bankrupt to quite profitable in ten years. Indigo partners really turned things around, but how much was Cost cutting and how much fuel prices dropping? This is a big expansion and I question whether they can sustain that type of growth over 10 years especially if their is an oil price spike or economic downturn.

My personal opinion is that this is an aggressive target. Spirit has built up a stronger network where they have some solid market share like their FLL hub and Latin America network. Allegiant has LAS and Florida hubs to smaller cities. Each of them has core markets. Frontier has an ever changing network with a hub in DEN going up against UA and WN. If this were Allegiant or Spirit making this order, I would have more confidence they had a solid plan, however neither of them have anywhere near the growth in fleet numbers that Frontier has.

With this order Frontier has just about the same number of narrowbodies on order (roughly 200) as United, American, Delta and Southwest. I don’t think it is Boeing bias for someone to question how Frontier, which is a relatively small airline can Find a way to add 200 planes to its fleet. The big 4 each have 200-225 narrowbodies on order and now so will Frontier. It is a head scratcher how an airline 10% the size of southwest needs the same number of planes.

According to this FlightGlobal article, Indigo Partners will be working with EnerJet (based in Calgary) to start a new ULCC in Canada. That could use 10 ~ 30 A320neos over ten years, one would speculate.

Last I heard, EnerJet had 1 or 2 73G aircraft. They have flown 'sun' charters before, but most recently have stuck to oil patch charters in Alberta and elsewhere. One of their founders was a WestJet founder, IIRC.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... os-443308/

Newbiepilot wrote:

I don’t think it is Boeing bias (I also commented on FlyDubais big order), but rather recent memories of Frontier being on the verge of insolvency in 2013. They went from completely bankrupt to quite profitable in ten years. Indigo partners really turned things around, but how much was Cost cutting and how much fuel prices dropping?

Your timings are odd. From insolvency in 2013 to profitable now is not ten years. And the turnaround came slightly earlier, in 2012 before Indigo stepped in, when Dave Siegel was CEO and they were instituting a new business model - as ULCC.

This, more than anything, has been the reason for Frontier's remarkable financial turnaround so that by 2015:

http://www.denverpost.com/2015/09/29/fr ... n-the-u-s/

"Frontier Airlines launches to fifth-most profitable airline in the U.S."

Newbiepilot wrote:

My personal opinion is that this is an aggressive target. Spirit has built up a stronger network where they have some solid market share like their FLL hub and Latin America network. Allegiant has LAS and Florida hubs to smaller cities. Each of them has core markets. Frontier has an ever changing network with a hub in DEN going up against UA and WN. If this were Allegiant or Spirit making this order, I would have more confidence they had a solid plan, however neither of them have anywhere near the growth in fleet numbers that Frontier has.

The Denver hub may be Frontier's greatest strength. United did everything it could to kill Frontier in the early days and Southwest did all it could to kill Frontier in the mid-2000's - and the airline refused to die. Throughout it all the Denver base has remained remarkably loyal - although it rebelled somewhat. when the ULCC effect became known. - LOL.

I know you have this bee in your bonnet about the "ever changing network" but if you sit down and look at it - objectively - the changes are mostly seasonal ones, if extreme seasonal, perhaps.

Newbiepilot wrote:

With this order Frontier has just about the same number of narrowbodies on order (roughly 200) as United, American, Delta and Southwest. I don’t think it is Boeing bias for someone to question how Frontier, which is a relatively small airline can Find a way to add 200 planes to its fleet. The big 4 each have 200-225 narrowbodies on order and now so will Frontier. It is a head scratcher how an airline 10% the size of southwest needs the same number of planes.

Sure, there are risks - but no one ever got anywhere by thinking small.

mariner

Mariner, Yes there are risks... big risks. The bankruptcy was 10 years ago and 4 years ago, Frontier was deeply in the hole. It is a remarkable turnaround, but are they ready to double or triple in size in the next decade? US yields are strong now, but how long will they remain strong? This is a big bet unless Airbus has very flexible terms. Airbus has a tendency to work with ambitious low cost carriers like IndiGo, Air Asia, Wizz Air, Lion Air, GoAir, etc. Frontier and Southwest now have more or less than same number of planes on order.

I wish them the best. They keep US airfares in check. Good for consumers to have competition.

I'm still floored by the size of this order.

mat66 wrote:

What I'm getting at is that we might never see a A319neo in regular commercial airline service ever. Just my 2c and now back to topic

It costs over a hundred million to design and flight test another length, even if just a re-engine. The ROI has gone negative on the A319NEO.

I think it's too late for some examples. Either Frontier or Avianca will not be able to finance any A319NEOs. Airbus will have to finance the planes. That means taking the resale value hit, which means Airbus' financial arm will not make their ROI. So they won't finance more than a dozen. That means most of Avianca's A319 NEOs will become A320s.

So I agree with you, I just think we will see A319NEOs in commercial service. But I expect early lease returns and then scrappings a la A318/736. Airbus' leasing arm will take a loss on every one. Even the ACJs.

Lightsaber