andymartin wrote:

Is there any point to the Dubai Airshow??

Military deals, lots of military deals.

http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-re ... raft-.html

MOU for Wataniya for 25neos

I think we are experiencing high level negotiations behind curtains. The stakes are high and neither party wants to give in.
Emirates is a big & important customer to Airbus & Boeing for their A380 and 777X projects.
That doesn't mean that anything is acceptable.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-aviation/eu-to-tackle-unfair-airline-competition-with-new-rules-idUSKBN18Z1A0

Was the 25 A320 order from Wataniya already counted?

http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-re ... raft-.html

andymartin wrote:

Is there any point to the Dubai Airshow??

Yeah... for the show. Orders are not the reason for Air shows...

This is turning into an embarassment for Airbus.
It's starting to look like all the A380 talk from EK was just a bluff to attract attention and give their little air show credibility.
I wonder how upset Airbus top management is after being played like that. The big fish didn't waste their time, IMO they took the first flights back after calling EK's bluff.

Airbus has a hard time selling new A380's as it is, I doubt that they would want the additional burden of having to sell used ones as well.
After all, as a manufacturer, once the thing is sold, it's sold. If EK doesn't want to pay its lessors more money and wants to renew its fleet in 12 year cycles, it's an issue between them and their financiers. All Airbus can do is offer the best price they can give and hope for a positive answer.
EK can't turn to the B748i because it only makes the issue worse.

With China increasing its offering between Europe and Asia, perhaps the right way for EK to go is to downgrade a big chunk of their fleet to the B777X and stabilise their offering around it. However, the issue is that EK has reached its current status thanks to the A380. As China starts to compete with A350, B787 and more direct routings, EK and EY are starting to fade away in the travel searches. If the comfort and low CASM of the A380 can no longer be a selling point, what will they have left to hang on to?
Until now EK was the predator, but very soon they will become the prey.
If they don't find a way to stay relevant in the face of subsidies monster China, the UAE are going to have to find other ways of maintaining whatever they built up until now.

ap305 wrote:

http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2017/11/wataniya-airways-to-add-25-a320neo-family-aircraft-.html

MOU for Wataniya for 25neos

I think most of us had to google this airline. It's a big step from operating 2 A320s to go to 25.

But good for them if they have the ambition to grow. And good for Airbus to have a new direct customer and of course, not zero orders at this airshow.

At the 2015 airshow Airbus had 2 orders, if the Emirates A380 still comes through, it's still very possible, they will match their previous appearance here.

zkojq wrote:

OA940 wrote:

So Boeing did better in Paris, and has now won EK's bid. Damn that must sting for Airbus.

Lets be honest, if Airbus had won the EK deal and sold 40 x A350-1000s to EK, the same people criticising Airbus now for not winning any orders would instead be criticising Airbus for having an orderbook that is too dependant on EK.

Actually I'd be going OMG YES because I love both the 35K and 78J. But let's be honest the chances of EK ordering the 350 became slim to none in 2014.

Waterbomber wrote:

It's starting to look like all the A380 talk from EK was just a bluff to attract attention and give their little air show credibility.

andymartin wrote:

Is there any point to the Dubai Airshow??

Of course. Excellent sounding board for EK's framing Airbus & broadcasting their demands worldwide.

Momo1435 wrote:

ap305 wrote:

http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2017/11/wataniya-airways-to-add-25-a320neo-family-aircraft-.html

MOU for Wataniya for 25neos

I think most of us had to google this airline. It's a big step from operating 2 A320s to go to 25.

But good for them if they have the ambition to grow. And good for Airbus to have a new direct customer and of course, not zero orders at this airshow.

At the 2015 airshow Airbus had 2 orders, if the Emirates A380 still comes through, it's still very possible, they will match their previous appearance here.

Wataniya has died once already.

Well, looks like new traffic rights for EK in Europe might become more difficult now.

Steelhead wrote:

Well, looks like new traffic rights for EK in Europe might become more difficult now.

Why? because EK only took 142 A380's and failed to sign a new deal in time for one lousy airshow? If you think the EU would make it harder for EK to fly to the EU over this think again.

With whats come out over the past few months EK not signing for more whales at this event is the least of Airbuses problems.

KarelXWB wrote:

Revelation wrote:

This was the aviation industry's equivalent of the bride being left at the altar.

I think it's likely we'll see an EK A380 deal, but things are probably going to be quite icy for a while after this fiasco.

In particular, it's a very bad time for Enders to be going home with absolutely nothing to show for his troubles except for egg on his face.

While everyone is so fixated on the air show, the positive spin is that Emirates basically confirms it needs/wants additional A380s. So no rumor anymore. If timing wasn't right, perhaps an order will be signed later.

Yes, the good news is that EK wants/needs 36 or so more A380s going forward. That's more than anyone expected. The bad news is the only way EK can finance them is with "copper bottomed" guarantees that require Airbus to commit to a decade or more of unprofitable A380 production and/or buyouts at the end of the contract, and clearly Airbus is having a hard time accepting such conditions.

Andre3K wrote:

zkojq wrote:

Andre3K wrote:

Until a US airline buys some A380’s, it’s pretty much a novelty.

What a ridiculous standard to judge the aircraft's merits on.

"I wanna build a bigger plane than the other guy even if not that many people are asking for them, I WANNA I WANNA I WANNA!

Someone has a very childish view of the aerospace market, and I don't mean Airbus...

In the absence of anything better to discuss, here is my analysis of the first 200 posts on this thread.
(All the names have been changed to protect the innocent.... ....and the guilty)

Original Post = 1
Mods warning us to stay on topic = 4
Posts echoing Mods frustration = 16

Posts anticipating genuinely possible new orders = 25
(mostly about the same possible EK A380 order)
Posts dreaming/wishing there were new orders for Airbus = 18
Posts noting affects of current corruption probe on Airbus sales = 14

Posts specifically discussing/crying over the whole A380 situation = 44

Boeing fanboy sour grapes = 8½
"½" = One Boeing poster who got it so badly wrong he scored an own goal; maybe he forgot which team he was on.

Airbus fanboys replying to Boeing F/B above = 2

Show talk, and discussing press conference scheduling = 15

Tangential aviation comments, regarding Airbus & other manufacturers = 33
(comments/replies to earlier comments, mostly valid and sensible, but not Dubai Show related, or specifically related to A380)

Thread fillers, assorted witty comments, coffee & biscuits = 11

Miscellaneous/undefinable/unintelligible = 8

Total = 199½

Still, it's been fun so far, hasn't it?

Revelation wrote:

Yes, the good news is that EK wants/needs 36 or so more A380s going forward. That's more than anyone expected. The bad news is the only way EK can finance them is with EK sees an opportunity to extract "copper bottomed" guarantees that require Airbus to commit to a decade or more of unprofitable A380 production and/or buyouts at the end of the contract, and clearly Airbus is having a hard time accepting such conditions.

There, fixed that for you...

SomebodyInTLS wrote:

Revelation wrote:

Yes, the good news is that EK wants/needs 36 or so more A380s going forward. That's more than anyone expected. The bad news is the only way EK can finance them is with EK sees an opportunity to extract "copper bottomed" guarantees that require Airbus to commit to a decade or more of unprofitable A380 production and/or buyouts at the end of the contract, and clearly Airbus is having a hard time accepting such conditions.

There, fixed that for you...

That's one way to look at things.

Another is to look at this photo:



... and wonder what the financiers think when they see such a sight.

It'll be even more hair-raising once the engines are off.

EK surely needs A380s for its business model to continue as-is, but I think financiers have every reason to want serious guarantees before putting their money down.

The A380 resale value issue is no longer a hypothetical problem.

It also looks like the "A380 Plus" is off the table:

DUBAI - Emirates is rejecting the proposed Airbus A380plus concept in spite of its plans to continue ordering more of the largest commercial aircraft.

“We would rather they just offered us the continuation of the line,” Emirates Airline President Tim Clark said at the Dubai Airshow. “I have never been a big fan [of the A380plus].”

Ref: http://aviationweek.com/commercial-avia ... s-continue

Understandable. The interior changes are largely useless to EK (they like the grand stair case and won’t go to 11Y) and the winglets are likely only appealing if they were retrofittable.

so what is Emirates going to do, be content on being the only operator in the world of the A380 and hope that every ten years or so Airbus will build them 40 or so whale jets?

If Emirates was smart, they would just go with the B777-900 as the A380 replacement. It might seat a hundred or so less people per plane but the economics of a two engine plane compared to that of a 4 engine plane are so much better. Plus, there's no question that the 777 line will be open for decades to come.

Other than the A380, what else does Airbus sell that seats over 400 people in a standard 2 class configuration?

One observation from all this is Airbus is struggling on the marketing and sales, while Boeing had been able to get the upper hand with better marketing and sales campaign. Airbus has been especially struggling with airshows. Look at the last airshows in Paris, Fanborough, Berlin, Singapore and now Dubai. But I wonder if this had a lot to do with JL's health. It seems that the decline occurred as JL declined. But just my $0.02

Momo1435 wrote:

Many people might have expected too much of this airshow... .

That's a understatement. Historically, pretty much only the home airline places orders at the Dubai airshow and yet here we are with 3 different threads for the Dubai air show orders, plus the 4th thread about EK's orders. If history is any indication, we could replace all 4 threads with a single "Dubai Air Show Orders" thread and that would still be too much.

Waterbomber wrote:

This is turning into an embarassment for Airbus.

You're joking right? If anything it's an embarrassment for the organizers. The Dubai air show has never been a popular time for civilian airlines to order planes. Like so many things in Dubai, it exists only for the sole purpose of increasing the exposure of Dubai Inc.

MoreMiles wrote:

One observation from all this is Airbus is struggling on the marketing and sales, while Boeing had been able to get the upper hand with better marketing and sales campaign. Airbus has been especially struggling with airshows. Look at the last airshows in Paris, Fanborough, Berlin, Singapore and now Dubai. But I wonder if this had a lot to do with JL's health. It seems that the decline occurred as JL declined. But just my $0.02

Enders has been cited in news here ( Germany ) that he would like at least an inkling of the political support that is leveraged by the US government
in support of Boeing. ... last Friday/Saturday.
IMU the outcome re A380 and 787-10 order gives quite a bit of substance to that quip.

Mind you the show is still running.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Steelhead wrote:

Well, looks like new traffic rights for EK in Europe might become more difficult now.

Why? because EK only took 142 A380's and failed to sign a new deal in time for one lousy airshow? If you think the EU would make it harder for EK to fly to the EU over this think again.

No.
It's because the cancerous growth of EK has skewed the market in ways the EU & others countries ( Canada, China ) deem economically illegitimate : the UAE are a very small country with a population size of Belgium yet with two huge airlines, two of which have substantially eroded all European legacy airlines market share between the EU & SE-Asia.
Were EK iranian, indian or chinese, the economics & O/D legitimity would be very different.
Fact is France & Germany only widen bilaterals along ME3 orders, or these wouldn't go through.
In addition, EK are both the saviour & the destructor of A380 service by other airlines at both ends of Eurasia ( can't say to what degree but AF, BA, LH, MH, TG traffic to Asia & Oz have shrunk substantially & what is worse, with no possibility of growth.

I know for a fact that Airbus are actually eyeing China to save the A380, it is the only other market that can make a difference. It is because of China that Brégier stated that "The A380 came a decade too early" & that he is hoping for a "domino effect" : one Chinese order & other chinese airlines follow suit. Chinese LgH expansion grew 14% the year alone, particularly to the USA & more is coming. Aside of their own growth, China also eye the Chinese transiting with other east-asian carriers, specially BR, CI, OZ & KE.
Last, Airbus know that Epirates are treacherous ( scrapping the A350 order unilaterally is just one example ) & I suspect it is for this very reason they did not want to venture into Neoing it alone. Just as EK now demand unreasonable guarantees, why does Airbus not demand they fund the whole Neo project ? Not more unreasonable than EK's stance.

jumbojet wrote:

If Emirates was smart, they would just go with the B777-900 as the A380 replacement.

777 would destroy the Emirates brand. Fleet consisting only from noisy and cramped airliners is not a wise move.

Noshow wrote:

Mind you the show is still running.

And STC is keeping the pressure on...

Reuters: Emirates believes Airbus can bow to demands on A380 programme says:

DUBAI (Reuters) - Emirates believes Airbus can meet demands from the Dubai government to guarantee development of the A380 jet programme, as it challenges the planemaker to see who will blink first in talks over a new $16 billion superjumbo plane order.

“I am sure that if we get closer to a further order, the Airbus board will make that undertaking,” Emirates President Tim Clark told reporters on Tuesday at the Dubai Airshow.

And:

Clark declined to speculate when a deal might be reached, but hinted on Monday it could be a matter of weeks or months.

So it seems STC feels the decision needs to go to the Airbus board, and that the board will agree to his "demands".
As for what is needed:

“The ownership of the business, the government of Dubai, the shareholder, needs absolute, absolute certainty,” he said.
Asked why this had become so important, he said, “because there has been a lot of talk” about the future of the A380, the world’s biggest passenger jet.

As for those hoping to see STC leave the scene:

Clark, 67, an influential industry figure who was knighted by his native Britain in 2014, deflected questions about whether he planned to retire, saying “I am still here”. He scoffed at a suggestion he might like to do anything as leisurely as golf.

So it seems positions are hardened and we're weeks/months away from seeing EK order more A380s.

It'll be interesting to see if/when Enders takes the issue up with the Board.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall!

Strato2 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

If Emirates was smart, they would just go with the B777-900 as the A380 replacement.

777 would destroy the Emirates brand. Fleet consisting only from noisy and cramped airliners is not a wise move.

However has EK survived with their ~150 777s versus ~100 A380s then?

You guys are taking EK’s “need” for the A380 to ridiculous extremes.

Strato2 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

If Emirates was smart, they would just go with the B777-900 as the A380 replacement.

777 would destroy the Emirates brand. Fleet consisting only from noisy and cramped airliners is not a wise move.

Just FYI the 777x will be less noisy and slightly wider inside than the 77W. Though it seems theres no getting through to you Airbus fanboys

Noshow wrote:

Mind you the show is still running.

It's 19:16 in Dubai. The show is no longer running.

AFAIK, today was the last day for professionals, right? The two remaining days are for the general public.

So what will be announced tomorrow?

@Airbus announces there will be a "major" Commercial Announcement tomorrow 11am @DubaiAirshow . Might the Emirates A380 deal be coming after all? Just askin'.

https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/9 ... 1075550214

This plot is having plenty of twists and turns...

DWC wrote:

[I know for a fact that Airbus are actually eyeing China to save the A380, it is the only other market that can make a difference. It is because of China that Brégier stated that "The A380 came a decade too early" & that he is hoping for a "domino effect" : one Chinese order & other chinese airlines follow suit. Chinese LgH expansion grew 14% the year alone, particularly to the USA & more is coming. Aside of their own growth, China also eye the Chinese transiting with other east-asian carriers, specially BR, CI, OZ & KE.
Last, Airbus know that Epirates are treacherous ( scrapping the A350 order unilaterally is just one example ) & I suspect it is for this very reason they did not want to venture into Neoing it alone. Just as EK now demand unreasonable guarantees, why does Airbus not demand they fund the whole Neo project ? Not more unreasonable than EK's stance.

Except CZ already has A380 and that hasn't cause a "domino effect". OZ and KE also both has A380 and are not exactly looking for more.

If anything, the like of A350 or B777/B787 fits China's market more anyway, especially all those 787 going from 2nd tier cities in China (The like of WUH or CTU or HGH) to major ports in US (mainly LAX, SFO, and maybe JFK). Even if they get A380 for Tier 1 to Tier 1 routes (So PEK or PVG to LAX or SFO or JFK), I'm thinking maybe 10 total, similar to KE, instead of "saving" the program.

This air show is a thriller à la hitchcock

KarelXWB wrote:

So what will be announced tomorrow?

@Airbus announces there will be a "major" Commercial Announcement tomorrow 11am @DubaiAirshow . Might the Emirates A380 deal be coming after all? Just askin'.

https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/9 ... 1075550214

It's completely understandable if Airbus needed more than a day to discuss the last minute demands from Emirates. Hoping for an A380 annoucement.

zakuivcustom wrote:

Except CZ already has A380 and that hasn't cause a "domino effect". OZ and KE also both has A380 and are not exactly looking for more.

If anything, the like of A350 or B777/B787 fits China's market more anyway, especially all those 787 going from 2nd tier cities in China (The like of WUH or CTU or HGH) to major ports in US (mainly LAX, SFO, and maybe JFK). Even if they get A380 for Tier 1 to Tier 1 routes (So PEK or PVG to LAX or SFO or JFK), I'm thinking maybe 10 total, similar to KE, instead of "saving" the program.

Agreed with CZ, I don't know what the Chinese are doing, but they surely have a plan.
I was only stating how Airbus sees China, they have more info than any of us here combined.
OZ & KE are small players compared to the global chinese civilian air force, remember all orders are centralized with Beijing & that they have been playing Game Theory ever since Sunzi ( and many others ). Incidently, the Russian strategy schools also study Sunzi to this day - very fine thinking, and they are now partnering with China for future commercial aircrafts - food for thought. WB routes are only the visible part of the iceberg, what is under water these days is just fascinating...

DWC wrote:

It's because the cancerous growth of EK has skewed the market in ways the EU & others countries ( Canada, China ) deem economically illegitimate : the UAE are a very small country with a population size of Belgium yet with two huge airlines, two of which have substantially eroded all European legacy airlines market share between the EU & SE-Asia.
Were EK iranian, indian or chinese, the economics & O/D legitimity would be very different.
Fact is France & Germany only widen bilaterals along ME3 orders, or these wouldn't go through.
In addition, EK are both the saviour & the destructor of A380 service by other airlines at both ends of Eurasia ( can't say to what degree but AF, BA, LH, MH, TG traffic to Asia & Oz have shrunk substantially & what is worse, with no possibility of growth.

I agree that EK's growth has come at the expense of many other airline's growth (I'd add QF to your list) and with the assistance of wider bilaterals (both from DE/FR and from UAE's willingness to have 'Open Skies' in Dubai).

However in game theory one must wonder if EK's A380 fetish didn't happen if perhaps more 748i would have been sold. For instance we've read in the aviation press that Boeing was counting on BA to take some and they never did. Perhaps if BA had a wider scope of growth we might have seen some 748i in their fleet, perhaps LH would take up its options, etc.

DWC wrote:

I know for a fact that Airbus are actually eyeing China to save the A380, it is the only other market that can make a difference. It is because of China that Brégier stated that "The A380 came a decade too early" & that he is hoping for a "domino effect" : one Chinese order & other chinese airlines follow suit. Chinese LgH expansion grew 14% the year alone, particularly to the USA & more is coming. Aside of their own growth, China also eye the Chinese transiting with other east-asian carriers, specially BR, CI, OZ & KE.

It's hard to see why China would favor the A380 to the degree it would save the A380 program. Keep in mind even if the program limps till the mid 2020s it will need several billion EUR from Airbus and the engine vendor for it to get its CASM down to the point it would become attractive to China or anyone else, so it will be starting out a few billion in the hole.

KarelXWB wrote:

So what will be announced tomorrow?

@Airbus announces there will be a "major" Commercial Announcement tomorrow 11am @DubaiAirshow . Might the Emirates A380 deal be coming after all? Just askin'.

https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/9 ... 1075550214

If it's an A380 order, then we should see bronze statues of Leahy being erected in TLS!

It would be an amazing way for him to walk off the stage, a total 'mic drop' moment.

If it's an A380 order, then we should see bronze statues of Leahy being erected in TLS!

It would be an amazing way for him to walk off the stage, a total 'mic drop' moment.

I really think JL deserves a bronze statue for what he has done so far for Airbus. I do not think, Airbus will be as they are now, without JL.

DWC wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Except CZ already has A380 and that hasn't cause a "domino effect". OZ and KE also both has A380 and are not exactly looking for more.

If anything, the like of A350 or B777/B787 fits China's market more anyway, especially all those 787 going from 2nd tier cities in China (The like of WUH or CTU or HGH) to major ports in US (mainly LAX, SFO, and maybe JFK). Even if they get A380 for Tier 1 to Tier 1 routes (So PEK or PVG to LAX or SFO or JFK), I'm thinking maybe 10 total, similar to KE, instead of "saving" the program.

Agreed with CZ, I don't know what the Chinese are doing, but they surely have a plan.
I was only stating how Airbus sees China, they have more info than any of us here combined.
OZ & KE are small players compared to the global chinese civilian air force, remember all orders are centralized with Beijing & that they have been playing Game Theory ever since Sunzi ( and many others ). Incidently, the Russian strategy schools also study Sunzi to this day - very fine thinking, and they are now partnering with China for future commercial aircrafts - food for thought. WB routes are only the visible part of the iceberg, what is under water these days is just fascinating...

Personally, I think it'll probably be easier for Airbus to sell 100 more A350s to Chinese carriers than any A380s (There are already 50 A350s going to Mainland, 10 to CA and 20 each to MU/CZ). And if Chinese carriers want more A380, I'm pretty sure they would have order some by now.

Of course, long term CN3 will be flying C919 and C929 only

zakuivcustom wrote:

Of course, long term CN3 will be flying C919 and C929 only

Till China buys the A380 program from Airbus and renames it C380!

Strato2 wrote:

jumbojet wrote:

If Emirates was smart, they would just go with the B777-900 as the A380 replacement.

777 would destroy the Emirates brand. Fleet consisting only from noisy and cramped airliners is not a wise move.

Really? Before there was an A380, EK was flying the 777 with 10 a/b Coach.

No matter whether it is because of buy back discussions or checking fine print of the deal, the non-order so far has definitely depressed the mood here in the UK after a hopeful weekend. We now wait yet another day for the morale boost the factory needs!
Regards
b

OldAeroGuy wrote:

Really? Before there was an A380, EK was flying the 777 with 10 a/b Coach.

And how well known was and how was it doing by that time?

Jayafe wrote:

OldAeroGuy wrote:

Really? Before there was an A380, EK was flying the 777 with 10 a/b Coach.

And how well known was and how was it doing by that time?

Emirates was obviously doing well enough, with enough brand recognition, to have ~60 A380s on order before their first delivery along with scores of 77Ws. Keep in mind that EK didn't even receive its first A380 until July 2008...they haven't even been operating the plane a decade. At no point has EK had more A380s in their fleet than 77Ws.

Revelation wrote:

However in game theory one must wonder if EK's A380 fetish didn't happen if perhaps more 748i would have been sold. For instance we've read in the aviation press that Boeing was counting on BA to take some and they never did. Perhaps if BA had a wider scope of growth we might have seen some 748i in their fleet, perhaps LH would take up its options, etc.

Oh yes, perhaps not the 748i per se, but some 747 model for sure, Boeing had been proposing a 747-500 & a 747-600 that did not convince, but they would have come up in the end with some 747-700 to replace the ageing 744. The A380 put a lot of pressure on Boeing, the 748i may have been overstretched to better counter the A380 capacity, a Max-ed 744 à la 787 would have done a little better in terms of efficiency, let the engineers here find the optimal solution without cannibalizing the 773.

Revelation wrote:

It's hard to see why China would favor the A380 to the degree it would save the A380 program.

Oh, if China ever buys more of the A380, it will be for their needs, not to save it. They don't need it know, so they don't buy it, that much is clear.
In fact, if you look at other industries, they buy nothing but the latest tech. So it would have to be Neo, what else ?
Yet they had placed 10 A380 frames for CA : if Brégier's "domino" theory is right, more chinese airlines would have followed suit, specially MU in slot constrained PVG & perhaps even CX to compete the CA flagship. The delays caused Airbus more losses than is accounted for, which in turn suggests their initial business plan was sound, but its execution terrible with cascading "unforeseen effects".

Revelation wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

Of course, long term CN3 will be flying C919 and C929 only

Till China buys the A380 program from Airbus and renames it C380!

Well, Russia & China are partnering on a WB.
Also, BBD's selling its CSeries to save it does make an for in interesting precedent. I don't know why the UAE have not yet announced it, since they are studying to co-produce a version of the MC-21...

MoreMiles wrote:

If it's an A380 order, then we should see bronze statues of Leahy being erected in TLS!
It would be an amazing way for him to walk off the stage, a total 'mic drop' moment.

I really think JL deserves a bronze statue for what he has done so far for Airbus. I do not think, Airbus will be as they are now, without JL.

Oh no, God forbid ! Considering his immense contribution, shouldn't it end up by something proportionate to his stature ?


I do wish him a nice "révérence" to end his career in apotheosis but...
considering the *hole Airbus are in now & how EK are taking advantage of it - unlikely.
Yet I would love to see it. It's quite ironic that a US citizen be so key in building up the super competitor to his "friends in Seattle"...
Last year he joked about the 777 orders for the A350... I'm sure he'd be toying with something with more panache...

A couple of interesting points from the slate of recent articles from the Dubai air show are worth mentioning:

>> From the AviationWeek article "Emirates Dismisses A380plus Concept As Negotiations Continue" (Nov. 14):
"Airbus has made a profit on a recurring cost base at a rate of 15 aircraft per year and is trying to drive breakeven down further. However, it is acknowledging that production will be loss-making at eight per year."

(As I recall, several posters were claiming that Airbus would be production-breakeven or even profitable at a rate of 8/year. This is now shown to be entirely false.)

############################

>> From the same article:
"Clark, however, argued that the CURRENT (my emphasis) Emirates order makes sure “the program is sustained until the middle of the next decade anyway.”

This is fascinating because it implies that the 42 remaining Emirates orders will sustain the production line *by itself* until say 2024 (2025 would be the exact "middle of the next decade", but let's cut STC a break...). Let's look at the A380 production remaining. There are NOMINALLY 317 total orders, but we know for certain that 47 of these are false and will never be taken up: Amedeo 20, Qantas 8, Virgin Atlantic 6, "Unknown" 10, and finally Air Accord 3. This leaves only 270 "real" A380s remaining. Of these, according to the ABCDLIST.NL site, 218 have been delivered as of Nov. 13 (last update to the site), and, by manual count, there are another 14 listed as "in final assembly", "outfitting/outfitted", or "in storage", meaning they are all already built: 218+14 = 232. That leaves only 38 A380s to be assembled from now till 2024. Allowing one more for the rest of 2017, that leaves 37 for the years 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 -- a total of 7 years. 37 aircraft / 7 years comes out to about 5/year.

The reason this math is important is that it explains why Airbus and Emirates are butting heads right now. Airbus wants to drive production up to at least 8/year (and presumably more would be MUCH better from their perspective; in the meantime, from the context of STC's comments, I am certain that the new 36 orders Emirates is considering would be planned to arrive in the *middle* and *later* years of next decade--i.e., leaving a production gap in the period of about 2019-2022 or 2023 of only 5-6 aircraft/year -- which, it appears, is (understandably) unpalatable to Airbus. But I'm pretty sure that Emirates, having already accelerated A380 deliveries in the 2015-2017 period to help Airbus out, is not in a position to take MORE than 5-6/year in the "gap" years.

I hope this math makes sense to y'all. It certainly explains to me why the current negotiations are so hard for each side and why each side is being so intransigent.

The show is over and Airbus is zero for Dubai. How the mighty have fallen.......

ElroyJetson wrote:

The show is over and Airbus is zero for Dubai. How the mighty have fallen.......

Sitting on top of thousands of orders with 2 surefire winners in their lineup? How do they sleep at night?