bigjku wrote:

Planesmart wrote:

bigjku wrote:

Airbus has explicitly stated on a per frame basis they don’t make money building the A380. This is just in the basis of cost of materials and labor. It is massively different from the 787 program in that regard. So long as they holds true ever sale loses them money.

Neither has Airbus stated they are losing money on each A380. In fact authorised financial markets statements are extremely well crafted, and noticeably non-committal, presumably to temper future IAG and EK price expectations.

Airbus said in 2016 on going to 12 airframes a year that the profit or loss wouldn’t be material either way. One would presume that the cut to 8 wouldn’t help.

The buyback of EK frames for resale might help alleviate that though. Also, depending on the size of the new order and/or any additional orders, the cut to 8 may not need to stay there long.

727200 wrote:

Its possible that Boeing conducts their business in same manor as Airbus, but reality is only Airbus under investigation.

Exactly my point . . .

DWC wrote:

5. ravished the title of "Queen of the Skies" ! Call the A380 "Whale of the Heavens" or "Pig of the Skies" if you will & lipsticked if you so prefer, but in everybody's right mind the crowning masterpiece is now produced by Airbus with all the added luxury airlines have put in.
That alone is worth billions in worldwide marketing & communication budget.
6. point above led to increased orders on other frames ( and Airbus to become bigger than Boeing commercial aircrafts, who would have thought ? )

If size is an indicator or royalty then a fat king might be a better name. There will never be another 747. Until a US airline buys some A380’s, it’s pretty much a novelty.

As for being bigger than Boeing commercial? Guess that’s why it’s good for Boeing defense to be sitting on so many orders.

DWC wrote:

You don't get it, do you ?
It's not about the size of the whale-jet, it's about its positionning & "brand awareness"
Hints :
- what aircraft ranks now first as flagship ?
- what aircraft do a sizable proportion of pax go for against the competition, even if they have to pay more ?
- what airline has the largest brand recognition worldwide based on one model ?

Most people can't tell a 2-holer WB from another, but they sure can an A380 from any other plane, just like the 747 before that.
The A380 may be a novelty to you, but it is not in Eurasia nor in the US actually : JFK, DFW, LAX, SFO, ATL...
EADS defense division was so small compared to commercial aircrafts that the company took that of its Airbus division.

I guess that depends on what you define as most people. Most people I know think every large twin is a 777. So in that regard Boeing must have done something right.

Plus you can't really compare the 747 to the A380 in terms of what it did to the world. No matter how big you make a 747's "replacement" it will never sell so well and be flown by SO MANY different airlines. That's my point. You can't change history, even the Concorde is historic/untouchable no matter what supersonic passenger jet may come along in the future. Would you agree with that?

[threeid][/threeid]

Jayafe wrote:

kurtverbose wrote:

The telegraph reporting it's for 17.

The UK supporting Europe, as usual, specially from a Pro-Brexit "paper"

The wings and engines will be made in the UK. So yes supporting the UK is the botton line.

DWC wrote:

Take the A380 out & Boeing's profits skyrocket, Airbus must keep them at bay & it is why Boeing develop the 777X to counter the A380.

But is also why Airbus needs to decently update the A380.
To keep it competitive against the 777X, they will need to at minimum redesign the wing and add weight improvements at some point. Waiting for a NEO is too late IMO as that already puts the 777X in service by several years. The weight improvements should also help with the cargo issue.

I hope the A380 garners more orders, and from different carriers. Such a fantastic aircraft.

Andre3K wrote:

I guess that depends on what you define as most people. Most people I know think every large twin is a 777. So in that regard Boeing must have done something right.

[/quote]

Most people wouldn't even know what a 777 was. The only planes that mean anything to general public are the A380 and the 747 because of their reputation. In Asia and Australia, most people I know think every large twin is an A330, because it's the only one they have been on.

I would like to see more A380s in the world. Hoping that Emirates announces an order this show, or it will be very disappointing for AB. I am hoping for a NEO, could see EK, BA and SQ potentially ordering them.

Two different EK pilots I follow on social media have posted that an A380 order is being announced Monday.

Slug71 wrote:

DWC wrote:

Take the A380 out & Boeing's profits skyrocket, Airbus must keep them at bay & it is why Boeing develop the 777X to counter the A380.

But is also why Airbus needs to decently update the A380.
To keep it competitive against the 777X, they will need to at minimum redesign the wing and add weight improvements at some point. Waiting for a NEO is too late IMO as that already puts the 777X in service by several years. The weight improvements should also help with the cargo issue.

Agreed, but because of sluggish sales Airbus could only go for the Plus.
The new engines won't be ready before several years & the market is not ripe for the necessary number of frames to recoup the investment. Even Doric's efforts have not come to fruition other than as the Plus. Fabrice Brégier said in January that the A380 had came a decade too early, thus only stressing the LT view of Airbus.

The 777X would have come about in any case & it came the moment Boeing finally admitted the darling 748i was no match for the A380 AND got the answer to whether Airbus would Neo the A380 as EK demanded. Had Airbus/EK gone forward, Boeing would have been forced to develop a clean-sheet VLA - if at all, to counter the new champion. But since they didn't, they MAXed the 777 instead, which is way cheaper but puts Boeing in a similar position with the 737max relative to the A320neo : reacting, not leading. Now that Boeing are absorbing much human & financial capital, Airbus is free to Neo & check the 777X on those missions it can, provided there is a market, which is expected in the next decade as traffic does nothing but grow.

If the Neo ever comes, which is the strategic optimum for Airbus compared to withdrawing - let alone developping a stretch, then weight improvements may actually call for less powerful engines like with the 777X. So the cargo issue would need to "stretch" the A380 to its base model as was originally planned, perhaps even stretch it then for real in the LT, but the market & the demand are simply not there. None. Yet. That is why an order from EK is crucial to keep the programme alive & credible, the latter is most important for financing.

If an order materializes tomorrow or in the next days, we will know how EK want it & from then on see if the Plus has momentum or not. All I am certain of is both EK & Airbus need the A380, the negociations I believe are more on price & conditions ( buy backs & perhaps scheduling the neo ). Also the value of the 787 order today is suspiciously equal to that expected from the projected A380 deal : such symmetries reek of political considerations & split orders. In the case EK really intend for the A380, as everything points to be in their best interest, the political situation in the region requires to also content the USA : a Boeing order was to be expected regardless of the frame & announcing it before the A380 is the right thing to do as the 787 has no crucial message to send to the world, contrary to sustaining the A380 again. Just happens the 787 fills EK's strategy well. What is less clear to me is that EK/FZ are more Boeing than Airbus in terms of value, I wonder how the EU is taking this considering EK's model cannot work without their 4 daily waves to Europe & will ask for more capacity : are France & Germany willing to allow for EK's expansion in order to sell more frames ?

I love these annual AvB threads. Is there a way to receive an alert about actual orders instead of wading through several pages of hearsay, conjecture and big old hissy fits ?

DWC wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

DWC wrote:

Take the A380 out & Boeing's profits skyrocket, Airbus must keep them at bay & it is why Boeing develop the 777X to counter the A380.

But is also why Airbus needs to decently update the A380.
To keep it competitive against the 777X, they will need to at minimum redesign the wing and add weight improvements at some point. Waiting for a NEO is too late IMO as that already puts the 777X in service by several years. The weight improvements should also help with the cargo issue.

Agreed, but because of sluggish sales Airbus could only go for the Plus.
The new engines won't be ready before several years & the market is not ripe for the necessary number of frames to recoup the investment. Even Doric's efforts have not come to fruition other than as the Plus. Fabrice Brégier said in January that the A380 had came a decade too early, thus only stressing the LT view of Airbus.

The 777X would have come about in any case & it came the moment Boeing finally admitted the darling 748i was no match for the A380 AND got the answer to whether Airbus would Neo the A380 as EK demanded. Had Airbus/EK gone forward, Boeing would have been forced to develop a clean-sheet VLA - if at all, to counter the new champion. But since they didn't, they MAXed the 777 instead, which is way cheaper but puts Boeing in a similar position with the 737max relative to the A320neo : reacting, not leading. Now that Boeing are absorbing much human & financial capital, Airbus is free to Neo & check the 777X on those missions it can, provided there is a market, which is expected in the next decade as traffic does nothing but grow.

If the Neo ever comes, which is the strategic optimum for Airbus compared to withdrawing - let alone developping a stretch, then weight improvements may actually call for less powerful engines like with the 777X. So the cargo issue would need to "stretch" the A380 to its base model as was originally planned, perhaps even stretch it then for real in the LT, but the market & the demand are simply not there. None. Yet. That is why an order from EK is crucial to keep the programme alive & credible, the latter is most important for financing.

If an order materializes tomorrow or in the next days, we will know how EK want it & from then on see if the Plus has momentum or not. All I am certain of is both EK & Airbus need the A380, the negociations I believe are more on price & conditions ( buy backs & perhaps scheduling the neo ). Also the value of the 787 order today is suspiciously equal to that expected from the projected A380 deal : such symmetries reek of political considerations & split orders. In the case EK really intend for the A380, as everything points to be in their best interest, the political situation in the region requires to also content the USA : a Boeing order was to be expected regardless of the frame & announcing it before the A380 is the right thing to do as there are no crucial message to send to the world, contrary to sustaining the A380 again. Just happens the 787 fills EK's strategy well. What is less clear to me is that EK/FZ are more Boeing than Airbus in terms of value, I wonder how the EU is taking this considering EK's model cannot work without their 4 daily waves to Europe & will ask for more capacity : are France & Germany willing to allow for EK's expansion in order to sell more frames ?

Agreed.

In 2015 Airbus considered a moderate (50 seat) stretch for the A380. So I doubt we'll see a stretch to the original base model. I think Airbus even acknowledged that.
As far as engines go, I see no reason why they couldn't use the Trent 7000 until the Ultrafan / Advance becomes available. It would provide a lot of commonality (especially with the 787-10 order) and should therefore help with costs too.
Even if Airbus does the moderate stretch and waits to redesign the wing, there should be some fuselage strengthening designed for the -900 that can be removed to reduce weight.
As well as add composite door frames like the A350. Better even if it can use the same ones, as that should reduce costs for the A350 too.

If an order is announced, it should surely be way more than the 36-38 frames speculated here. I think that an order in the 60's is required to keep the A380 line going at a decent rate. Its not only about how profitable a low rate production is for Airbus, but also all the suppliers who arent going to keep parts a9nd materials production open forever at a low rate, both for batch production items and continuous production. Plus suppliers have their own supply chain and staffing to worry about.

So I think that Airbus is going to push for a much bigger order than 36-38.

Waterbomber wrote:

If an order is announced, it should surely be way more than the 36-38 frames speculated here. I think that an order in the 60's is required to keep the A380 line going at a decent rate. Its not only about how profitable a low rate production is for Airbus, but also all the suppliers who arent going to keep parts a9nd materials production open forever at a low rate, both for batch production items and continuous production. Plus suppliers have their own supply chain and staffing to worry about.

So I think that Airbus is going to push for a much bigger order than 36-38.

I'm sure they've been pushing for a larger order, but that number comes from recent publications. Not just a.net speculation. It could just be a small order to get some commitment from Airbus to provide a updated version before a larger order is placed. We'll find out real soon if the rumours about an order today is true.

johhn14 wrote:

Two different EK pilots I follow on social media have posted that an A380 order is being announced Monday.

And perhaps that will come to pass, but it's worth noting that pilots are almost always the single most inaccurate source when it comes to new routes, aircraft orders, M&A activity, etc.

So today is the day, best of luck airbus

It’s -NOT- the engines that are killing the A380 — the T900 is within only a couple % sfc of latest XWB / -TEN — the problem is the oversize, both from capacity (seating) and capability (weight). Although the cross section is efficient, the wings and other packaging isn’t for what the market is looking for.

Andre3K wrote:

I know one person who has flown on an A380. I know a handful of people who have flown on a 777 including myself. I know a TON of people who have flown on a 747. This is the USA I live in. Besides the countries that are overpopulated and filled with 90+ percent of its population in poverty(China, India etc) name one country with as many people who fly regularly? So they know the A330 and A350 a lot overseas. Sure the A330 has a decent precense here in the US but you know the hoemteam will always stand out.

Hey slugger, I'm guessing because of your relative isolation, being in the US and all, that you haven't heard about the massive emerging middle-classes in countries like China and India, as well as the wealthy of South Korea, Singapore and Japan. For many in other relatively wealthy parts of the world - I'm talking specifically Australia and New Zealand here - airlines like Emirates and Cathay and Singapore and Qantas are far more familiar and regular to us than United, American or Delta... and while the A330 and the 777 are more common in our skies, our people could pick out an A380 over most two-holers any day.

12 years and still the A380 gives headaches to some Anet members. I love the darn aircraft, I hope It gets a truckload of orders, and becomes a sight in a lot of new airports. I predicted MEX would be a great A380 destination and AF is happy with its use here, but LH and even BA could use it...the market is there. I think there are at least another dozen Airports that could use the Whale of the skies. EK will surely keep flying the aircraft. Orders tomorrow or not.
Best Regards
TRB

CHI87LG wrote:

The future of the A380 is on the stage here. Let's hope it works out, as the big bird hopefully still has her best years to come.

Regardless there isn't much of a future. Airlines are not suddenly going to warm to something that really only works well for one airline.

JannEejit wrote:

I love these annual AvB threads. Is there a way to receive an alert about actual orders instead of wading through several pages of hearsay, conjecture and big old hissy fits ?

No.

Regarding the latest on the EK A380 order

Dubai wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production of the A380 superjumbo open for at least 10 years before state-owned Emirates places a new order for the world’s largest jetliner, the airline’s president said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/emirate ... SL8N1NJ0UJ

Well, that request puts Airbus in a pickle.

One one hand they cancel the a350 and order the 787-10... on the other they want a guarantee that Airbus will not cancel on them for the a380.... I think at some point Airbus needs to let go of the a380 and tell EK they are welcome to be an all Boeing airline and Airbus will not be competing for their business anymore.

[twoid][/twoid]

ClipperYankee wrote:

Well, that request puts Airbus in a pickle.

I'm not sure that it does. The major sunk costs for the programme are paid so as long as the line will work at breakeven they'll be fine. It also indicates they would potentially buy more as time moves forward.

A330freak wrote:

Regarding the latest on the EK A380 order:

Dubai wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production of the A380 superjumbo open for at least 10 years before state-owned Emirates places a new order for the world’s largest jetliner, the airline’s president said on Monday.

ClipperYankee wrote:

Well, that request puts Airbus in a pickle.

Does it? There are 52 outstanding orders that are guaranteed to be delivered between EK, NH and SQ. If EK adds another 30, that is 82 frames. The production rate is slowing to 8 per year in 2019 and once SQ and NH have their deliveries taken, I could see EK settle for 6 a year. So should be quite easy for Airbus to maintain the line for another 10 years.

Dubai Airshow 2017 Airbus orders folks stay on topic, if your not.

Thank you

Stitch wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Regarding the latest on the EK A380 order:

Dubai wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production of the A380 superjumbo open for at least 10 years before state-owned Emirates places a new order for the world’s largest jetliner, the airline’s president said on Monday.

ClipperYankee wrote:

Well, that request puts Airbus in a pickle.

Does it? There are 52 outstanding orders that are guaranteed to be delivered between EK, NH and SQ. If EK adds another 30, that is 82 frames. The production rate is slowing to 8 per year in 2019 and once SQ and NH have their deliveries taken, I could see EK settle for 6 a year. So should be quite easy for Airbus to maintain the line for another 10 years.

Yes, there are 52 outstanding orders for the A380, but 22 of those aircraft are already built or currently in the assembly halls being built.

As such, there are currently 30 aircraft left to be produced (assembled). Parts for some of those thirty aircraft would already be built and just waiting to be shipped to Toulouse for assembly.

If we consider the supply chain for the A380, some parts have two year lead times and/or need to be ordered in minimum quantities (forgings for landing gear), at this stage, at 8 aircraft deliveries per year, parts of the A380 supply change may need to start shutting down.

Airbus needed this order from Emirates. I’d suggest if Airbus is unable to negotiate an order for the A380, we have probably just witnessed an event that will result in the closure of the A380 production line.

jetmechanicdave wrote:

Dubai Airshow 2017 Airbus orders folks stay on topic, if your not.

Thank you

Can you flush this thread and start over? 136 posts mostly A. v. B. bashing but nothing about actual orders, as I believe you had intended this for.

Wingtips56 wrote:

jetmechanicdave wrote:

Dubai Airshow 2017 Airbus orders folks stay on topic, if your not.

Thank you

Can you flush this thread and start over? 136 posts mostly A. v. B. bashing but nothing about actual orders, as I believe you had intended this for.

yes please, If no orders don't post. there's another post of Emirates about a380 and one about 78k to get on the pissing competition

Kikko19 wrote:

Wingtips56 wrote:

jetmechanicdave wrote:

Dubai Airshow 2017 Airbus orders folks stay on topic, if your not.

Thank you

Can you flush this thread and start over? 136 posts mostly A. v. B. bashing but nothing about actual orders, as I believe you had intended this for.

yes please, If no orders don't post. there's another post of Emirates about a380 and one about 78k to get on the pissing competition

Thanks for your help Kikko. If we cant stay on topic we can lock these threads.

Please stop the bashing over Airbus and Boeing.

Thanks guys for understanding.

Another reason Emirates may not be in a hurry to order more A380’s is lack of space at DXB.
It is already bursting at the seams and Emirates won’t be ready move down the road to DWC for some years to come..

The negative talk about the A380 seems overly gloomy. At LHR more than 10% of all passengers arrive and depart on A380’s..

flyingphil wrote:

Another reason Emirates may not be in a hurry to order more A380’s is lack of space at DXB.
It is already bursting at the seams and Emirates won’t be ready move down the road to DWC for some years to come..

The negative talk about the A380 seems overly gloomy. At LHR more than 10% of all passengers arrive and depart on A380’s..

Exactly Phil, How about those Airbus orders at the Dubai Airshow.

A330freak wrote:

Regarding the latest on the EK A380 order

Dubai wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production of the A380 superjumbo open for at least 10 years before state-owned Emirates places a new order for the world’s largest jetliner, the airline’s president said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/emirate ... SL8N1NJ0UJ

in other words: "Emirates does not have any interest in buying further A380's in the near term future."

blackbox67 wrote:

A330freak wrote:

Regarding the latest on the EK A380 order

Dubai wants a guarantee that Airbus will keep production of the A380 superjumbo open for at least 10 years before state-owned Emirates places a new order for the world’s largest jetliner, the airline’s president said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/emirate ... SL8N1NJ0UJ

in other words: "Emirates does not have any interest in buying further A380's in the near term future."

Well apparently a 787 or a350 order decision was off the table for this year too until it was announced yesterday.

Don’t read into speculation or airline comments as they often are designed throw people off track.

If EK needs more a380’s, and Airbus wants to continue with the program, a deal will happen. Until then, no point really hanging of every media report.

jetmechanicdave wrote:

, How about those Airbus orders at the Dubai Airshow.

Have there even been any Airbus orders announced yet?

Newbiepilot wrote:

jetmechanicdave wrote:

, How about those Airbus orders at the Dubai Airshow.

Have there even been any Airbus orders announced yet?

No orders announced from Airbus

airbus have two press conferences scheduled tomorrow at 11am and 2pm - I wonder what will come of these...?

...especially as they also had two scheduled today which did not result in orders...

Richard28 wrote:

airbus have two press conferences scheduled tomorrow at 11am and 2pm - I wonder what will come of these...?

...especially as they also had two scheduled today which did not result in orders...

I wonder, what were they about then ?

tvh wrote:

I wonder, what were they about then ?

no idea I'm afraid.. they were scheduled that is all I know!

http://www.dubaiairshow.aero/press-conf ... e-ui-tabs2

qf789 wrote:

Newbiepilot wrote:

jetmechanicdave wrote:

, How about those Airbus orders at the Dubai Airshow.

Have there even been any Airbus orders announced yet?

No orders announced from Airbus

Good to have three pages of "Dubai Air Show 2017 - Airbus Orders" then.

to have some Airbus news, Air Arabia has signed a lease deal with ALC for 6 A321neoLRs


"AIRSHOW-Air Arabia to lease 6 Airbus A321neos from Air Lease Corp"

http://www.reuters.com/article/emirates ... SD5N1MY00W

This is why I don't really like to consolidate air show threads in one discussion per aircraft manufacturer as has been done here because orders that are announced get lost in discussions that are not related to the air show threads itself. There are no orders announced but yet this thread has three pages of A380 related discussions. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind the discussion itself but it will be better if those type of discussions are outside the air show threads. You will find aircraft orders during an air show quicker by just googling for aircraft orders instead of going through 5 pages of discussions here.

At least there's one order from Air Arabia now

A388

JannEejit wrote:

I love these annual AvB threads. Is there a way to receive an alert about actual orders instead of wading through several pages of hearsay, conjecture and big old hissy fits ?

No kidding. Hundred + posts and not a single order.

Better make one Dubai thread each for hard fact orders and one for discussions maybe?

flyingphil wrote:

Another reason Emirates may not be in a hurry to order more A380’s is lack of space at DXB.
It is already bursting at the seams and Emirates won’t be ready move down the road to DWC for some years to come..

The negative talk about the A380 seems overly gloomy. At LHR more than 10% of all passengers arrive and depart on A380’s..

DXB being packed is a reason to buy more A380s. The only way to add capacity beyond a certain point is to upgauge.

Hoping for an A380 announcement today.

If everyone is really that vexed about posts not reporting on orders, then admin would be safer making a sticky thread, and only they (or selected members) can post in it, within which ONLY orders are added as and when folks observe them. OK, maybe not quite as quick as these discussion threads, but you can't have everything.

Then parallel to that general discussion threads run.

Momo1435 wrote:

to have some Airbus news, Air Arabia has signed a lease deal with ALC for 6 A321neoLRs


"AIRSHOW-Air Arabia to lease 6 Airbus A321neos from Air Lease Corp"

http://www.reuters.com/article/emirates ... SD5N1MY00W

The deal for 6 A321neos was signed in 2016 and already announced

https://www.airleasecorp.com/press/air- ... r-arabia-1

It was discussed a few months ago that they may get converted to A321LRs

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/? ... oogle.com/

This announcements sounds like it is firming up the deal and conversion to LRs. It sounds like Air Arabia is trying to milk this deal to get as much media attention as possible. It looks like it is working since they got the CEO in front of Dubai Airshow with the Air Lease executives. Nonetheless, congrats to Airbus for getting more A321LRs in the order book.

I dozed off for 6 hours and nothing from Airbus? what did they even do in their scheduled time today?

Is there talk of orders for Airbus' other aircraft or are they betting the house on the A380 order for this air show?