Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
FoxtrotSierra wrote:I think it’s too early to say the 748i is finished. It’s more or less an open secret in the airline industry that Boeing is desperate to sell 748’s to anyone who still wants them. The problem is, all the airlines who are seriously interested know this and won’t make an offer until the very end, when Boeing announces the end of production. They are opportunistic, and don’t want to buy until they know the price can’t go any lower, and when Boeing reaches that point, I think we’ll see 1-2, maybe 3 airlines make an end of line purchases. I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:
KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar
usair330 wrote:
2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3
fsxfan38 wrote:With more airlines deciding to retire their 747-400 fleets and with very few airlines buying the new 747-8is, it almost seems as if we could be seeing the absolute last 747 passenger flight within the next 5-7 years.
Do you guys think that there is any way for this trend to reverse and more airlines would be convinced to give the 747-8 a chance?
In my opinion I really don't think that'll happen. Even if Boeing made a super fuel efficient version of the 747, the 747 would unfortunately still be viewed by major airlines, especially US carriers as a relic of the past while aircraft like the 777, 787, and the A350XWB are viewed as the future.
However I don't think that the 747 as a whole is going to die anytime soon. I foresee that the 747 will become the new DC-10 and have a bright future as a cargo plane, even long after the passenger line is discontinued.
Mortyman wrote:From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
Iemand91 wrote:Mortyman wrote:From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
Not really. Their new 777's and 787 offer more cargo space below than the 747. They'll also get some A350's in a couple of years.
Yes they'll lose the profitable main deck cargo capabilities (which is a damn shame), but they get more cargo space below in return.
usair330 wrote:
2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3
FoxtrotSierra wrote:Iemand91 wrote:Mortyman wrote:From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
Not really. Their new 777's and 787 offer more cargo space below than the 747. They'll also get some A350's in a couple of years.
Yes they'll lose the profitable main deck cargo capabilities (which is a damn shame), but they get more cargo space below in return.
With the exception of LH, everyone has the 77W, so we are looking at VLA's only.
Let's see:
BA 744 to A380
AF 744 to A380
LH 744 to A380/748
KL 744 to ???
KLM has 748 written all over it!
questions wrote:Did the industry need the 748 AND the A380?
Without the A380 would more sales have gone to the 748 vs 777, therefore increasing demand for the 748?
Mortyman wrote:From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
TWA772LR wrote:A combination of every country in the world outlawing 777, 787s, A350s, and A380s, and Boeing giving them away for free.
rlo4934 wrote:BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.
usair330 wrote:2 engines is the only way I can see the 747 coming back to life. And it would have to be more fuel efficient than the 777-3
Mumrik wrote:rlo4934 wrote:BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.
Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748??
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.
FoxtrotSierra wrote:I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:
KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar
Mumrik wrote:rlo4934 wrote:BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.
Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748??
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.
Elementalism wrote:That actually looks pretty nice.
Mortyman wrote:From what I have read, KLM is desperatly looking for a replacement for their B747 Combis ... It's a shame Boeing didn't find such a solution for the B747-8.
aviatorcraig wrote:Mumrik wrote:rlo4934 wrote:BA would have ordered more, according to Willie Walsh, if Boeing had given them an engine option, i.e., Rolls Royce engines. May not have saved the program, but would have been a nice feather in Boeing's cap to have BA order the new version.
Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748??
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.
I think this is a red herring.
Whilst it is true that over the years BA has been a good customer of RR, just like AF has been a loyal GE customer, I don't think it is a show stopper provided the deal is right (e.g. capital cost, maintenance costs, support etc.). Lack of engine choice didn't prevent BA from buying (and then supplementing) a moderate sized 773 fleet.
(Edited for typo)
VSMUT wrote:FoxtrotSierra wrote:I think it’s too early to say the 748i is finished. It’s more or less an open secret in the airline industry that Boeing is desperate to sell 748’s to anyone who still wants them. The problem is, all the airlines who are seriously interested know this and won’t make an offer until the very end, when Boeing announces the end of production. They are opportunistic, and don’t want to buy until they know the price can’t go any lower, and when Boeing reaches that point, I think we’ll see 1-2, maybe 3 airlines make an end of line purchases. I can almost guarantee we will see an order from at least one of the following:
KLM
Qantas
Turkish
Singapore
Iran Air
Saudia
Qatar
It competes too much with the non-selling 777X.
rlo4934 wrote:aviatorcraig wrote:Mumrik wrote:
Why didn't Boeing consider putting the RR engines on the 748??
They had the engines for such a plane as it was already being put on the 787 just like the GE engines fitted to the 748.
I think this is a red herring.
Whilst it is true that over the years BA has been a good customer of RR, just like AF has been a loyal GE customer, I don't think it is a show stopper provided the deal is right (e.g. capital cost, maintenance costs, support etc.). Lack of engine choice didn't prevent BA from buying (and then supplementing) a moderate sized 773 fleet.
(Edited for typo)
Possibly. This article quoted the CEO of BA in 2015. BA seems to be a true 747 supporter given their length of service they plan to keep their 747's when most airlines are retiring the 747.
https://leehamnews.com/2015/06/09/we-wa ... s-at-iata/
SCAT15F wrote:Saving the 748 (beyond the -8F) would in my opinion require a GEnx-2b using GE9X technology and giving 5% better sfc, a reduction of OEW to original promised spec (466,000lb) or lower, and full implementation of Project Ozark improvements (higher MTOW, improved wing-body fairing, improved wingtips. Overall this could increase efficiency by perhaps 8% (possibly 10%)
VSMUT wrote:Boeing has already gone official that they are more or less dropping the 747-8i. They don't really have any incentive to keep it any more. It competes too much with the non-selling 777X, and they would be absolutely correct in focusing all efforts on saving the latter from the fate of the former.
“We don’t see significant demand for passenger 747-8s or A380s,” Tinseth said in an earlier briefing embargoed until his presentation in Paris.
He said Boeing in the years ahead expects to sell “just a handful” of nonfreighter versions of the 747, consisting of VIP private planes for foreign heads of state plus the two or three heavily modified 747s that will be supplied to serve as the Air Force One planes for the U.S. president.
EddieDude wrote:If I am not mistaken, KL has a very dense configuration for 77W, so those planes can definitely take care of the routes currently served by the full-pax 744s.
CHI2DFW wrote:Nope. Airline execs like their planes like their mistresses, only two holers!
NameOmitted wrote:The question presupposes the 747 needs saving. The 747-8 was a "fleet in being." It provided price pressure on the A380, preventing Airbus from enjoying the sort of cash cow that Boeing enjoyed for so long, and being able to plow that extra cash into other programs. In that, the program is successful.
Freighter orders continue to trickle in. There is no freighter A380, nor is there likely to be as long as there is a 747 able to be converted, since the most expensive 747 available will be cheaper than designing an A380-F, denying A380 operators of a huge portion of the second hand market, further depressing the value of the A380 as a potential cash cow.
The 747-8 program has been a strategic success, and sales for the freighter are still trickling in. The line will continue to crawl along, and there will be ships in the sky for several decades yet.