I think SEA can handle one more Tokyo flight. Maybe a 788

User001 wrote:

MAN is an attractive airport and cathement area, but not for JAL. JAL focusses on Japanese travellers who are also the main demographic and MAN doesnt have much to offer corporate wise nor tourism-wise

http://www.uk.emb-japan.go.jp/files/000201478.pdf

The map on page one shows that there are a fair few businesses, European HQ and employees in the catchment. Obviously not on the same scale as London, but there's a fair few.

As for 'not much to offer tourism wise', really?

Snowdonia, the lakes, the peaks, coasts, cities (Liverpool, Manchester, Chester, York). Birmingham easy to reach by road, domestic connections to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Shopping, theme parks, spas, museumsand more.

If thats a small offering then god help other markets!

If that's all what MAN has to offer, remember that Japan has a very developed domestic tourism market. They'll fly to half a world away to watch aurora borealis in Canada, but they ain't gonna fly to MAN to visit a theme park or second tier cities in the UK when they have very limited long holidays.
To take such long direct flights, the destination has got to have something special.

London has a lot of Japanese businesses establlished there, it's just not comparable.
MAN can be fed through HEL or LHR, no need for a direct flight. So knowing JL, I'll stay on my no chance argument.
If you want to see a MAN flight become reality, you need to look at local airlines such as MT, because even NH would rather add frequencies in LON long before they consider MAN.

BeachBoy wrote:

I think SEA is next w/ the Alaska Airlines MileagePlan FF tie up. The SEA market has changed a lot w/ overflying of NRT, but historically there have been 3 carriers flying to NRT--NW, UA, AA.

I do agree that there is a good chance that JL will start SEA. However, AA discontinued SEA-NRT in 2001 or early 2002. The flight has been gone for a lot longer than it existed, so I wouldn't say there have historically been three carriers on the route including AA. For awhile it was NW and UA. Then DL and NH.

I believe the PDX can support an Asian flight. If DL drops PDX-NRT as often speculated (but hasn't actually happened), then I believe either NH or JL will start PDX.

I mean MIA is apparently getting JAL, but I would be very interested in seeing them do BNA 3x weekly.

If that's all what MAN has to offer, remember that Japan has a very developed domestic tourism market. They'll fly to half a world away to watch aurora borealis in Canada, but they ain't gonna fly to MAN to visit a theme park or second tier cities in the UK when they have very limited long holidays.
To take such long direct flights, the destination has got to have something special.

JAL have run charters to DUB and EDI, and there always seems to be bus loads of Japanese tourists in the Lake District, and strangely, Chester. So clearly they are flying to these lowly places you talk of.

London has a lot of Japanese businesses establlished there, it's just not comparable.

Hence I pointed out the MAN catchment was not on the same scale as London. Very few things in the UK are. Due to the size of the U.K. London gets the lions share of most things while the UK regions fight it out for what's left. That said, all it would take is one corporate contract from any one of those companies in the locality, and then your off. Combine that with any tourism and cargo revenue, and then things start to grow. Direct flights also stimulate demand. Just yesterday there was a very large press release that Hainan had unlocked something like £200million of dividends in the North of England and has now made that area the largest exporter to China outside of London. Loads are also 15% above the forecasts and targets. I know Beijing is clearly not the same as Tokyo, but who is to say that couldn't be repeated elsewhere? The North of England, and down to the midlands isn't this hinterland the wider world seems to think it is...

MAN can be fed through HEL or LHR, no need for a direct flight. So knowing JL, I'll stay on my no chance argument.

And I'll stay on my 'never say never' stance. If you had told me as little as 5 years ago that MAN would have links to PEK/HKG/SIN/SEA/LAX/SFO/JED all at the same time I would have laughed you out of the building. However, that's where it is. JAL reps have been seen at MAN touring facilities several times, once with my own eyes, so clearly there was *some* intention (even if a cursarory look, you don't tour facilities of you have no intention of serving a point).

However, with JAL adding a second LHR flight next March, I agree it's pushed any prospective MAN flight well down the priority list, but.....

If you want to see a MAN flight become reality, you need to look at local airlines such as MT, because even NH would rather add frequencies in LON long before they consider MAN

.

LHR is full, LGW almost the same, no chance they will go to STN or LTN, so, I wouldn't actually rule NH out. I'd put them well ahead of JAL for a MAN flight...

One of the common misconceptions about MAN is that it only serves Manchester. That is squarely not the case. MAN also serves a catchment area that includes the cities of Leeds, Liverpool and Sheffield. Less clearly it also serves the cities of Newcastle and Birmingham.

If you do not include Birmingham, the economy of MAN's catchment area is the equivalent to a country the size of Belgium, Sweden or Poland - and well over twice the size of Ireland or Finland's economies.

The trouble with the UK is that this gets overlooked because London is so much bigger than everywhere else.

However, MAN has a distinct and economically strong catchment. It does not have the O&D of London (no where is particularly close to this) but it stands up well to its European comparators, some of which have direct flight to TYO with JL.

I'm not saying JL/ANA should serve MAN, but it cannot be ruled out.

bhxdtw wrote:

Why does JL serve Helsinki? Just curious... I didn't know that there were strong VFR or business ties between JP and Finland...

Or is it a JV metal neutral thing with AY using a better (smaller ) aircraft ? I guess it's possibly because Its one of the shorter flights to Europe from TYO and they can then feed pax on to AY's european flights?

JL has been flying to HEL since 2013 as part of the Siberian Joint Business (SJB) partnership between JL, BA, AY and IB. Revenue is shared between the carriers but it's not really a case of "AY using a better (smaller) aircraft" - AY itself added four weekly flights for the past summer season which brought the total of NRT-HEL to 18x weekly yet still saw load factors improve. For S18 Finnair will make NRT double daily. JL also changed the aircraft from 788 to 789 earlier this year.

The connections from HEL and the fact that Japan-HEL is within 24h rotation of course played a role but Finland is also the most popular Nordic country for Japanese tourists (which can partly be explained by connections between four Japanese cities and HEL, but that doesn't explain it all).

kriskim wrote:

ahj2000 wrote:

Auckland or Perth. Their QF partnership would help a lot and these dests are unserved by a Japanese carrier

Chances of QF co-operating with JL? They code-share on routes via SIN and HKG, but they are effectively competitors on the Australia-Japan non-stop market, JL and QF certainly do not code-share on each others MEL-NRT or SYD-NRT/HND flights. But JL does code-share with JQ on its Japan flights out of OOL and CNS.

High chance out of PER, I would suggest (and probably out of AKL, too). On the subject of PER, a delegation from WA reportedly travelled to Japan a week or two ago for discussions with JL and NH.

Nami wrote:

bhxdtw wrote:

Why does JL serve Helsinki? Just curious... I didn't know that there were strong VFR or business ties between JP and Finland...

Or is it a JV metal neutral thing with AY using a better (smaller ) aircraft ? I guess it's possibly because Its one of the shorter flights to Europe from TYO and they can then feed pax on to AY's european flights?

JL has been flying to HEL since 2013 as part of the Siberian Joint Business (SJB) partnership between JL, BA, AY and IB. Revenue is shared between the carriers but it's not really a case of "AY using a better (smaller) aircraft" - AY itself added four weekly flights for the past summer season which brought the total of NRT-HEL to 18x weekly yet still saw load factors improve. For S18 Finnair will make NRT double daily. JL also changed the aircraft from 788 to 789 earlier this year.

The connections from HEL and the fact that Japan-HEL is within 24h rotation of course played a role but Finland is also the most popular Nordic country for Japanese tourists (which can partly be explained by connections between four Japanese cities and HEL, but that doesn't explain it all).

Yeah as said several reasons JL fly daily to HEL: Connections, 24h rotation, joint business, tourism. Of the Nordic countries Finland has had the closest ties to Japan, the non stop service between HEL and TYO started in 1983 already. Now HEL is one of the major hubs between Europe and Japan. Next summer season there will be 38 weekly flights between HEL and Japan (NRT KIX NGO FUK), NRT 3x daily.

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

Come on, we all know AUS will get flights from JL to NRT, KE to ICN, CX to HKG, etc. Then NH will eventually fly their A380 to MIA from HND.

Yeah as said several reasons JL fly daily to HEL: Connections, 24h rotation, joint business, tourism. Of the Nordic countries Finland has had the closest ties to Japan, the non stop service between HEL and TYO started in 1983 already. Now HEL is one of the major hubs between Europe and Japan. Next summer season there will be 38 weekly flights between HEL and Japan (NRT KIX NGO FUK), NRT 3x daily.

HEL is actually right on the great circle route from Japan to western Europe, which helps with connection. Japan in general is AY's biggest long-haul market anyway.

bhxdtw wrote:

Why does JL serve Helsinki? Just curious... I didn't know that there were strong VFR or business ties between JP and Finland...

Or is it a JV metal neutral thing with AY using a better (smaller ) aircraft ? I guess it's possibly because Its one of the shorter flights to Europe from TYO and they can then feed pax on to AY's european flights?

BA, AY, and JL are all in a Europe to Japan joint venture. AY and BA feed JL and and the reverse is true as well. The JV was originally BA and JL, but AY became part of it in 2014. HEL exists on the JL network only to feed and be fed by AY traffic. The P2P routes between Helsinki and Japan are also part of the JV.

I have said it before, but why can't a Japanese airline make YYZ work?

HELyes wrote:

Nami wrote:

bhxdtw wrote:

Why does JL serve Helsinki? Just curious... I didn't know that there were strong VFR or business ties between JP and Finland...

Or is it a JV metal neutral thing with AY using a better (smaller ) aircraft ? I guess it's possibly because Its one of the shorter flights to Europe from TYO and they can then feed pax on to AY's european flights?

JL has been flying to HEL since 2013 as part of the Siberian Joint Business (SJB) partnership between JL, BA, AY and IB. Revenue is shared between the carriers but it's not really a case of "AY using a better (smaller) aircraft" - AY itself added four weekly flights for the past summer season which brought the total of NRT-HEL to 18x weekly yet still saw load factors improve. For S18 Finnair will make NRT double daily. JL also changed the aircraft from 788 to 789 earlier this year.

The connections from HEL and the fact that Japan-HEL is within 24h rotation of course played a role but Finland is also the most popular Nordic country for Japanese tourists (which can partly be explained by connections between four Japanese cities and HEL, but that doesn't explain it all).

Yeah as said several reasons JL fly daily to HEL: Connections, 24h rotation, joint business, tourism. Of the Nordic countries Finland has had the closest ties to Japan, the non stop service between HEL and TYO started in 1983 already. Now HEL is one of the major hubs between Europe and Japan. Next summer season there will be 38 weekly flights between HEL and Japan (NRT KIX NGO FUK), NRT 3x daily.

And probably more routes to come. Finnair is considering plans to launch Tokyo Haneda service. The airline sees Haneda necessary to capture more business demand. Sapporo Chitose is also considered. I wonder, would JAL launch HND-HEL service as a part of JV, but could it affect passenger numbers on NRT-HEL? If JAL won't start HND-HEL, would it deploy bigger aircraft such as Airbus A350 on NRT-HEL if necessary?

Slim possibility but what about OGG? As a tag on to their recently resumed KOA service.

The stop in KOA would allow pax to clear customs as there is no FIS at OGG. Their 763's shouldn't have an issue making it to NRT from OGG. AA used to run 763s OGG-ORD which is farther, but with the prevailing winds. NRT would be against the winds.

77H

SEA.......lots of complaints from Delta passengers about the old 767 that is way overdue for refurbishing. DL no longer flies SEA-KIX......NH is always full.......UA relies on SFO, which often has ATC/Flow problems. Plus they are tone-deaf about re-starting NRT service back up from SEA, despite the fact that many of their regulars want it back.........AC has limited capacity to YVR from SEA, to begin with. And now only one choice of AC flight that connects to the YVR Asia trips for the winter season, the 9:05am trip. Which often cancels.

So, a "Perfect Storm" for JAL.....

MAD would be nice

HEL is strongly promoted wihin the JV but pax hate it. I think that package tourists bear with the incovenience given that they don't know better, but most frequent flyers and the premium pax avoid it.
Mind you, I'm flying through HEL to NRT in December on my most hated carrier (AY), but I'm willing to endure it given the return from HND via LHR with BA which I need to rediscover. The only reason I'm doing this is rock bottom fares. JAL through LHR was 70% more expensive.
But seriously, HEL is not a nice place to connect, especially in the winter, given likelihood of having to walk in snow in negative temps when parking at remote stands. You also have the delays due to winter ops. Then the narrow claustro-terminal and the 3 to 5 hours on an A320 or Ejet. Bah... I don't look forward to it.

JL is wasting that B789 on HEL. Let AY operate it, send a B787 to HND-BRU or add a second HND-CDG timed like the LHR flight, or to AMS, MXP, FCO, VCE, I don't care but stop expanding at HEL. The pax hate it and only take it because it's dirt cheap.
Also, please no AY in HND. That's a waste of a slot. Low cost carriers belong in NRT and no one will pay premium prices to fly a low cost, high fares carrier, even out of HND.

There is a huge gap in non stop links between Barcelona - Japan. Hopefully BCN is in the not so distant future of JAL.

Waterbomber wrote:

HEL is strongly promoted wihin the JV but pax hate it. I think that package tourists bear with the incovenience given that they don't know better, but most frequent flyers and the premium pax avoid it.
Mind you, I'm flying through HEL to NRT in December on my most hated carrier (AY), but I'm willing to endure it given the return from HND via LHR with BA which I need to rediscover. The only reason I'm doing this is rock bottom fares. JAL through LHR was 70% more expensive.
But seriously, HEL is not a nice place to connect, especially in the winter, given likelihood of having to walk in snow in negative temps when parking at remote stands. You also have the delays due to winter ops. Then the narrow claustro-terminal and the 3 to 5 hours on an A320 or Ejet. Bah... I don't look forward to it.

JL is wasting that B789 on HEL. Let AY operate it, send a B787 to HND-BRU or add a second HND-CDG timed like the LHR flight, or to AMS, MXP, FCO, VCE, I don't care but stop expanding at HEL. The pax hate it and only take it because it's dirt cheap.
Also, please no AY in HND. That's a waste of a slot. Low cost carriers belong in NRT and no one will pay premium prices to fly a low cost, high fares carrier, even out of HND.

What a joke of a post - complete bs full of assumptions and opinions iso facts. Where can I find the fact that pax hate HEL or AY in particular?

Sometimes you have to board and deboard in HEL through remote stands even during winter and yes I hate it too but delays due to winter ops? Any statistics to back this up? Look at LHR or other jokes of airports during winter weather - an inch of slush and it's a complete mess.

I'm sure JAL knows which routes are profitable and which ones are not. If the HEL route is so terrible I'm surprised they haven't discontinued it yet iso upgrading it from 788 to 789.

And finally low cost - based on what? Compared to other European carriers on Asian routes AY is doing pretty well - this is even measured by customer reviews that can be found easily (use Google). First you write "rock bottom prices" and "dirt cheap" and later "high fares"? Where's the logic?

Waterbomber wrote:

HEL is strongly promoted wihin the JV but pax hate it. I think that package tourists bear with the incovenience given that they don't know better, but most frequent flyers and the premium pax avoid it.
Mind you, I'm flying through HEL to NRT in December on my most hated carrier (AY), but I'm willing to endure it given the return from HND via LHR with BA which I need to rediscover. The only reason I'm doing this is rock bottom fares. JAL through LHR was 70% more expensive.
But seriously, HEL is not a nice place to connect, especially in the winter, given likelihood of having to walk in snow in negative temps when parking at remote stands. You also have the delays due to winter ops. Then the narrow claustro-terminal and the 3 to 5 hours on an A320 or Ejet. Bah... I don't look forward to it.

JL is wasting that B789 on HEL. Let AY operate it, send a B787 to HND-BRU or add a second HND-CDG timed like the LHR flight, or to AMS, MXP, FCO, VCE, I don't care but stop expanding at HEL. The pax hate it and only take it because it's dirt cheap.
Also, please no AY in HND. That's a waste of a slot. Low cost carriers belong in NRT and no one will pay premium prices to fly a low cost, high fares carrier, even out of HND.

Passenger numbers at HEL are growing significantly and HEL has been awarded the Best airport in Europe and even The Best in the World. There are lots of other awards HEL has gained so it seems like most people disagree with you.

Waterbomber wrote:

Also, please no AY in HND. That's a waste of a slot. Low cost carriers belong in NRT and no one will pay premium prices to fly a low cost, high fares carrier, even out of HND.

Sorry, but AY considers a new service to HND, which is really good. That is not a waste of a slot

In my opinion, HEL is a great airport and Finnair is a great airline. I don't understand why do you hate HEL and AY so much but you have your own opinion though. And how did you come up with this:

Waterbomber wrote:

The pax hate it and only take it because it's dirt cheap.

Waterbomber wrote:

I'm flying through HEL to NRT in December on my most hated carrier (AY), but I'm willing to endure it given the return from HND via LHR with BA which I need to rediscover. The only reason I'm doing this is rock bottom fares.

There are plenty of other options to TYO from Europe so why would you fly AY again if you hate it so much? Personally if I had such an emotional connection to an airline I would happily pay extra not having to fly on it.

PS. If your output was more like one expects from an adult instead of a cranky teenager it would be much easier to take your opinions and claims seriously.

Japanese carriers have a tendency to operate flights to places where there is a large presence of Japanese companies/citizens. For such case in the US cities where Japanese carriers don't operate, would be: DTW, ATL, PDX, and CMH. Outside of the US, it'll be YYZ, GRU, BNE, PER, MXP, AKL, etc (based on the expat number ranking from Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). But then HEL seems to be quite unique in this sense so anything seems possible as long as there is a OW hub.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have said it before, but why can't a Japanese airline make YYZ work?

It’s not that they can’t make YYZ work, it’s that they haven’t tried. AC is strong on the market, with a daily 77W to HND and up until this year, a seasonal daily 789 to NRT which is being shifted to YUL. Capacity this coming year will be the lowest it has been in some time to Japan Fromm Toronto, perfect time for JAL to take a crack at it. In all of Toronto, there are less then 30000 people of Japanese descent, which lowers O/D, but tourism is strong both ways, and business ties exist, especially in the Automotive sector, with Honda, and Toyota boy having their Canadian headquarters in the GTA, and having large factories in the GTA. A codeshare with WS would also really help to fill in the service, and with WS going towards being a more full service carrier, there is less apprehension with them codesharing.

Waterbomber wrote:

HEL is strongly promoted wihin the JV but pax hate it. I think that package tourists bear with the incovenience given that they don't know better, but most frequent flyers and the premium pax avoid it.
Mind you, I'm flying through HEL to NRT in December on my most hated carrier (AY), but I'm willing to endure it given the return from HND via LHR with BA which I need to rediscover. The only reason I'm doing this is rock bottom fares. JAL through LHR was 70% more expensive.
But seriously, HEL is not a nice place to connect, especially in the winter, given likelihood of having to walk in snow in negative temps when parking at remote stands. You also have the delays due to winter ops. Then the narrow claustro-terminal and the 3 to 5 hours on an A320 or Ejet. Bah... I don't look forward to it.

JL is wasting that B789 on HEL. Let AY operate it, send a B787 to HND-BRU or add a second HND-CDG timed like the LHR flight, or to AMS, MXP, FCO, VCE, I don't care but stop expanding at HEL. The pax hate it and only take it because it's dirt cheap.
Also, please no AY in HND. That's a waste of a slot. Low cost carriers belong in NRT and no one will pay premium prices to fly a low cost, high fares carrier, even out of HND.

"Your most hated carrier"...and the rest of the "analysis" is suppose to be objective

Japanese carriers have a tendency to operate flights to places where there is a large presence of Japanese companies/citizens. For such case in the US cities where Japanese carriers don't operate, would be: DTW, ATL, PDX, and CMH. Outside of the US, it'll be YYZ, GRU, BNE, PER, MXP, AKL, etc (based on the expat number ranking from Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). But then HEL seems to be quite unique in this sense so anything seems possible as long as there is a OW hub.

CMH is only up there b/c of Honda, though. And before long, people will say "JAL next destination will be CMH" .

DTW, ATL, and PDX all have DL already on the route. Don't see the demand as big enough for more than the existing 1 daily.

YYZ is possible, not sure if there are any bilaterial restriction, though.
GRU cannot be fly non-stop, so I think it'll remain NRT or HND-JFK (JL) then JFK-GRU (AA) for now.
BNE I think QF 1 daily is already good enough.
PER, possible (No non-stop right now).
MXP I do see if AZ goes under.
AKL I do see also.

But ultimately, for me the most logical expansion will be AusNZ rather than a.nutter favorite MIA or (insert your random Midwest city here). Even SEA on JL makes more sense.

AirAfreak wrote:

To North America, we will see the return of JAL to Washington/Dulles before we see an opening of BNA, CMH, CVG, AUS, IND, DTW, MSP, STL, etc., in my opinion. JAL used to fly the 747 into Dulles Airport but later discontinued it. Perhaps the 787 would be a great way to resume service.

I'd love to see IAD to TOY, simply because JAL always feels like it has a little extra legroom over ANA. While it may not be actually true, JAL always feels like it has more legroom The market could support JAL's return to IAD, IMHO, but who knows.

NH and UA fly ORD-NRT. NRT a strong * Hub and IAD a forgotten * Hub.

JL could probably make it work due to the route being two of the most important capitals in the world.

flymco753 wrote:

I mean MIA is apparently getting JAL, but I would be very interested in seeing them do BNA 3x weekly.

I would love that, but BNA is not quite ready for that yet. I don’t expect a flight to Tokyo until the early-mid 2020s at the soonest.

This thread got me wondering if the loads coming from Japan are mostly business or vacation related travel? Here in YYC, AC has 3x weekly (5x in summer) non stop to NRT.. could JAL offer a competive service against AC and possibly grown this route for both airlines? The intrest for travel into the mountains seems to be increasing every year.

hirofumi wrote:

Japanese carriers have a tendency to operate flights to places where there is a large presence of Japanese companies/citizens. For such case in the US cities where Japanese carriers don't operate, would be: DTW, ATL, PDX, and CMH. Outside of the US, it'll be YYZ, GRU, BNE, PER, MXP, AKL, etc (based on the expat number ranking from Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). But then HEL seems to be quite unique in this sense so anything seems possible as long as there is a OW hub.

Columbus? Columbus? I'm not sure if this was a mistake or more misinformed "YOKOHAMA HAS A FACTORY IN NASHVILLE!" type posting.

This map shows japanese population as a percentage of asian population of each state.

And here's the asian population of each state:



I know columbus isn't all of Ohio but if you're going to make bizarre claim about rust-belt-city-x then at least make a claim that isn't obviously wrong (CMH doesn't have TPAC service, nobody understands or recognizes columbus as a significant node of japanese diaspora).

Based on ohio's population and estimating that japanese represent 5.5% of asians in columbus (median of the range indicated), the entirety of ohio has a japanese population of around 13000. Please just stop

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

You're absolutely right. I might actually lose my mind with people insisting that cities like BNA (i'm looking at you LAX772LR) are ready for TPAC, blah blah blah, when is KE coming to AUS, blah blah blah, etc. I'm tempted to like make a chrome extension that literally just blocks out every single depressed rust belt city and the hipster satellite towns that seemingly are home to half of the people on this fucking forum and that they insist are the Next New Frontier Of Aviation In America.

who should it be? AUS, CLE, CMH, CVG (how about all of ohio), IND, MSY, MKE, MCI, STL, DSM, etc? oh you mean to tell me that JAL is buying an A380 to start daily service to XNA because Ms. Kobayashi is flying back to visit her aunt next march? its literally intolerable.

what i want answers to is why these cities dominate SO MUCH of the discussion on this forum. I want to hear about actual news in aviation... not speculation about this and that and so on. i swear to god that like the STL thread fills up within minutes and yet we hear nothing about the incredible growth from denver, seattle, new york, los angeles, etc. do more people just happen to live in these cities? the only one i can tolerate hearing about is "WILL DTW GET XX TO XXX?" because DTW actually has some semblance of importance (only city in north america with flights to nagoya) but i'm going to shoot myself the next time i hear about some japanese company that set up some regional headquarter in blah blah blah. no, your city is not economically viable, no, yokohama isn't going to pay JAL to start a flight to nashville, and no, your japanese population of X,xxx isn't enough to support a flight to xxx.

whywhyzee wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have said it before, but why can't a Japanese airline make YYZ work?

It’s not that they can’t make YYZ work, it’s that they haven’t tried. AC is strong on the market, with a daily 77W to HND and up until this year, a seasonal daily 789 to NRT which is being shifted to YUL. Capacity this coming year will be the lowest it has been in some time to Japan Fromm Toronto, perfect time for JAL to take a crack at it. In all of Toronto, there are less then 30000 people of Japanese descent, which lowers O/D, but tourism is strong both ways, and business ties exist, especially in the Automotive sector, with Honda, and Toyota boy having their Canadian headquarters in the GTA, and having large factories in the GTA. A codeshare with WS would also really help to fill in the service, and with WS going towards being a more full service carrier, there is less apprehension with them codesharing.

Just out of curiosity, do you mention anything negative about your airport? Japanese carriers have huge premium cabins and Canada being a weak premium market is an unnatural fit. On top of this, AC uses the prime real estate by serving the preferred HND airport where the majority of all high value customers gravitate towards. There are bilateral restrictions with respect to HND usage from Canada.

jubguy3 wrote:

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

You're absolutely right. I might actually lose my mind with people insisting that cities like BNA (i'm looking at you LAX772LR) are ready for TPAC, blah blah blah, when is KE coming to AUS, blah blah blah, etc. I'm tempted to like make a chrome extension that literally just blocks out every single depressed rust belt city and the hipster satellite towns that seemingly are home to half of the people on this fucking forum and that they insist are the Next New Frontier Of Aviation In America.

who should it be? AUS, CLE, CMH, CVG (how about all of ohio), IND, MSY, MKE, MCI, STL, DSM, etc? oh you mean to tell me that JAL is buying an A380 to start daily service to XNA because Ms. Kobayashi is flying back to visit her aunt next march? its literally intolerable.

what i want answers to is why these cities dominate SO MUCH of the discussion on this forum. I want to hear about actual news in aviation... not speculation about this and that and so on. i swear to god that like the STL thread fills up within minutes and yet we hear nothing about the incredible growth from denver, seattle, new york, los angeles, etc. do more people just happen to live in these cities? the only one i can tolerate hearing about is "WILL DTW GET XX TO XXX?" because DTW actually has some semblance of importance (only city in north america with flights to nagoya) but i'm going to shoot myself the next time i hear about some japanese company that set up some regional headquarter in blah blah blah. no, your city is not economically viable, no, yokohama isn't going to pay JAL to start a flight to nashville, and no, your japanese population of X,xxx isn't enough to support a flight to xxx.

Thank you for sharing that! I’m so sick and tired of these why no (mediocre) XYZ to Haneda flights?

I’m gobsmacked when people actually believe a Minot, Joplin, Columbus, Toledo, Chattanooga, Valdosta to Japan flight would work.

The have-nots will never be a Los Angeles when it comes to Asia flying. Those smaller Asian Populations in the fly-over states are random Asian/Asian-Americans with summer/second homes, local restauranteurs, adoptees, students, retirees, and/or medical and agricultural traffic on 3-year working contracts. The demand is nothing to ooh and aaaah about. Geez.

I get the whole aviation geek thing but these threads are so dumb and excessive now. I’m gonna start posting some Los Angeles threads.

AirAfreak wrote:

jubguy3 wrote:

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

You're absolutely right. I might actually lose my mind with people insisting that cities like BNA (i'm looking at you LAX772LR) are ready for TPAC, blah blah blah, when is KE coming to AUS, blah blah blah, etc. I'm tempted to like make a chrome extension that literally just blocks out every single depressed rust belt city and the hipster satellite towns that seemingly are home to half of the people on this fucking forum and that they insist are the Next New Frontier Of Aviation In America.

who should it be? AUS, CLE, CMH, CVG (how about all of ohio), IND, MSY, MKE, MCI, STL, DSM, etc? oh you mean to tell me that JAL is buying an A380 to start daily service to XNA because Ms. Kobayashi is flying back to visit her aunt next march? its literally intolerable.

what i want answers to is why these cities dominate SO MUCH of the discussion on this forum. I want to hear about actual news in aviation... not speculation about this and that and so on. i swear to god that like the STL thread fills up within minutes and yet we hear nothing about the incredible growth from denver, seattle, new york, los angeles, etc. do more people just happen to live in these cities? the only one i can tolerate hearing about is "WILL DTW GET XX TO XXX?" because DTW actually has some semblance of importance (only city in north america with flights to nagoya) but i'm going to shoot myself the next time i hear about some japanese company that set up some regional headquarter in blah blah blah. no, your city is not economically viable, no, yokohama isn't going to pay JAL to start a flight to nashville, and no, your japanese population of X,xxx isn't enough to support a flight to xxx.

Thank you for sharing that! I’m so sick and tired of these why no (mediocre) XYZ to Haneda flights?

I’m gobsmacked when people actually believe a Minot, Joplin, Columbus, Toledo, Chattanooga, Valdosta to Japan flight would work.

The have-nots will never be a Los Angeles when it comes to Asia flying. Those smaller Asian Populations in the fly-over states are random Asian/Asian-Americans with summer/second homes, local restauranteurs, adoptees, students, retirees, and/or medical and agricultural traffic on 3-year working contracts. The demand is nothing to ooh and aaaah about. Geez.

I get the whole aviation geek thing but these threads are so dumb and excessive now. I’m gonna start posting some Los Angeles threads.

Adding my two cents. There is also the tread where people think once there is a regional HQ of a big Japanese company, that city should get a non-stop to Japan.

Except...well, most of the employees I would say are not even Japanese. So high level executive wants to fly back to Tokyo? Easy, connect to a JL flight via AA codeshare.

Hack, even a city like PHX makes more sense than all those random Midwestern or Upper South cities. At least PHX is an AA hub and can draw some toruism traffic (most of those flying through LAX right now I would say). Even that I am not seeing to be on high priority on JL's list.

There is also another group of people that talks about "It is not just Japan, but also China, Korea, PHilippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Nepal, etc". No, the places with demand already have non-stops, and those that don't, doesn't for a reason. The 10 PDEW from xyz to the like of BKK or SGN can't sustain a flight.

P.S. Depends on whether you count Hawaii as North America, there are flights from HNL to NGO also .

But let's look at DTW-NGO, you are talking about an entire industry, not just a single company. Then ultimately DTW is still a fairly big hub for DL.

jubguy3 wrote:

hirofumi wrote:

Japanese carriers have a tendency to operate flights to places where there is a large presence of Japanese companies/citizens. For such case in the US cities where Japanese carriers don't operate, would be: DTW, ATL, PDX, and CMH. Outside of the US, it'll be YYZ, GRU, BNE, PER, MXP, AKL, etc (based on the expat number ranking from Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). But then HEL seems to be quite unique in this sense so anything seems possible as long as there is a OW hub.

Columbus? Columbus? I'm not sure if this was a mistake or more misinformed "YOKOHAMA HAS A FACTORY IN NASHVILLE!" type posting.

This map shows japanese population as a percentage of asian population of each state.

And here's the asian population of each state:



I know columbus isn't all of Ohio but if you're going to make bizarre claim about rust-belt-city-x then at least make a claim that isn't obviously wrong (CMH doesn't have TPAC service, nobody understands or recognizes columbus as a significant node of japanese diaspora).

Based on ohio's population and estimating that japanese represent 5.5% of asians in columbus (median of the range indicated), the entirety of ohio has a japanese population of around 13000. Please just stop

As I've said, I've only based my answer from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs report. It's from Oct. 2011 so it may not be the perfect example, but there shouldn't be a drastic difference.

I will translate the top 50 cities outside Japan with the largest population of Japanese citizens, picking up only from US+Canada to be specific. This doesn't include Japanese-Americans who are holding a US citizen (dual citizenship is illegal in Japan) so your maps will not be too precise to judge this matter.

<Cities with largest Japanese population outside Japan (as of Oct. 2011)>
1. Greater LA: 70,629
3. Greater NY: 54,885
8. Vancouver: 23,847
10. SF: 16,565
11. San Diego: 14,979
13. San Jose: 13,023
14. Honolulu: 12,963
21. Toronto: 9,041
22. Detroit: 8,414
33. Greater Atlanta: 4,634
36. Greater Portland: 4,232
37. Guam: 4,139
42. Columbus (OH): 3,429
45. Calgary: 2,930

The Japanese population in Columbus OH is equivalent to cities like Auckland NZ, Milan, and Frankfurt.

But, to be fair with you, I've just searched for the latest report which doesn't list up Columbus for the top 50 as more cities are incorporated as a metropolitan area. Here is the latest version as of Oct. 2016.

<Cities with largest Japanese population outside Japan (as of Oct. 2016)>
1. Greater LA: 67,505
3. Greater NY: 46,917
8. Greater Vancouver: 27,898
10. Greater SF: 18,759
13. Honolulu: 15,610
14: Greater San Jose: 15,236
15. Toronto: 12,543
19. Greater Chicago: 11,705
20. Greater Seattle: 11,481
25. San Diego: 8,712
34. Greater Atlanta: 6,711
39. Greater Portland: 4,493
41. Greater Houston: 4,282
42. Novi (MI): 3,618
47. Calgary: 3,384

Though the description has changed a bit (adding the word "Greater" to more cities and including outskirt population), more or less there hasn't been much change in the numbers from 2011. So I'd still say the Japanese population in Columbus is still high compared to other US cities excluding the above.

Anyway - coming back to the original question of this thread - I too don't believe there will be a direct Japan-Columbus route anytime soon. I was bringing up a point that Japanese carriers have the tendency to fly to cities with relatively large Japanese company presence and expats in which CMH is one of them. But, the lack of onward connecting traffic demand wouldn't make this possible unless it becomes a major hub airport.

I'm actually a little bit surprise about the number of Japanese in San Diego, didn't realized that there are that many :p.

Columbus OH at 3429 (in 2011) sounds about right. Maybe the 2016 report doesn't have Columbus OH b/c it separated out Dublin OH (~1200 Japanese) from it? Seeing that Novi MI is also listed instead of Detroit.

On the other hand, looking at the 2011 report for Aus/NZ:
6. Sydney 26260
12. Melbourne 13421
24. Gold Cost 8075
25. Brisbane 7465
28. Perth 6798
41. Auckland 3438
49. Cairns 2755

So BNE is not as far fetched as I think

BTW, looking at the number b/t Vancouver and Toronto, no wonder only AC fly to YYZ from Japan, while JL/NH/AC all serves YVR from Japan.

I see all these number and then I realize that the state of São Paulo (not the city) have at least 400.000 people with Japanese background. Quite impressive and different from the US.
If only the Brazilian government were not corrupt (I like to dream people), I could imagine quite a stronger economic tie with Japan, with both JL and NH operating flights to GRU via US or Europe.

geoshina wrote:

I see all these number and then I realize that the state of São Paulo (not the city) have at least 400.000 people with Japanese background. Quite impressive and different from the US.
If only the Brazilian government were not corrupt (I like to dream people), I could imagine quite a stronger economic tie with Japan, with both JL and NH operating flights to GRU via US or Europe.

Even now there are certainly demand between Japan and Brazil. It's just hard to make money on 1-stop flights, even if they have 5th freedom rights. JL stops their NRT-JFK-GRU service in 2010 when they filed bankruptcy. With the extensive codeshare network now with both AA (via LAX, DFW, or JFK) and JJ (via FRA, LHR, and CDG), I just don't see JL going back to operating their own metal to Brazil anytime soon.

It's time for JAL to look at Detroit. There is a lot of Japan origin business traffic and with Delta down sizing this market there is room for some extra capacity to be added to cater to the Japan point of sale customers.

JAL does well at OW hubs like LHR, LAX, JFK, ORD and DFW. The next logical North American hub for them could be Philadelphia, Charlotte or Miami. Most of the cities that can connect through CLT or PHL can do so already from DFW or ORD. Of the three MIA sticks out as the most unique since JAL serves nothing like it.

hirofumi wrote:

jubguy3 wrote:

hirofumi wrote:

Japanese carriers have a tendency to operate flights to places where there is a large presence of Japanese companies/citizens. For such case in the US cities where Japanese carriers don't operate, would be: DTW, ATL, PDX, and CMH. Outside of the US, it'll be YYZ, GRU, BNE, PER, MXP, AKL, etc (based on the expat number ranking from Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). But then HEL seems to be quite unique in this sense so anything seems possible as long as there is a OW hub.

Columbus? Columbus? I'm not sure if this was a mistake or more misinformed "YOKOHAMA HAS A FACTORY IN NASHVILLE!" type posting.

This map shows japanese population as a percentage of asian population of each state.

And here's the asian population of each state:



I know columbus isn't all of Ohio but if you're going to make bizarre claim about rust-belt-city-x then at least make a claim that isn't obviously wrong (CMH doesn't have TPAC service, nobody understands or recognizes columbus as a significant node of japanese diaspora).

Based on ohio's population and estimating that japanese represent 5.5% of asians in columbus (median of the range indicated), the entirety of ohio has a japanese population of around 13000. Please just stop

As I've said, I've only based my answer from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs report. It's from Oct. 2011 so it may not be the perfect example, but there shouldn't be a drastic difference.

I will translate the top 50 cities outside Japan with the largest population of Japanese citizens, picking up only from US+Canada to be specific. This doesn't include Japanese-Americans who are holding a US citizen (dual citizenship is illegal in Japan) so your maps will not be too precise to judge this matter.

<Cities with largest Japanese population outside Japan (as of Oct. 2011)>
1. Greater LA: 70,629
3. Greater NY: 54,885
8. Vancouver: 23,847
10. SF: 16,565
11. San Diego: 14,979
13. San Jose: 13,023
14. Honolulu: 12,963
21. Toronto: 9,041
22. Detroit: 8,414
33. Greater Atlanta: 4,634
36. Greater Portland: 4,232
37. Guam: 4,139
42. Columbus (OH): 3,429
45. Calgary: 2,930

The Japanese population in Columbus OH is equivalent to cities like Auckland NZ, Milan, and Frankfurt.

But, to be fair with you, I've just searched for the latest report which doesn't list up Columbus for the top 50 as more cities are incorporated as a metropolitan area. Here is the latest version as of Oct. 2016.

<Cities with largest Japanese population outside Japan (as of Oct. 2016)>
1. Greater LA: 67,505
3. Greater NY: 46,917
8. Greater Vancouver: 27,898
10. Greater SF: 18,759
13. Honolulu: 15,610
14: Greater San Jose: 15,236
15. Toronto: 12,543
19. Greater Chicago: 11,705
20. Greater Seattle: 11,481
25. San Diego: 8,712
34. Greater Atlanta: 6,711
39. Greater Portland: 4,493
41. Greater Houston: 4,282
42. Novi (MI): 3,618
47. Calgary: 3,384

Though the description has changed a bit (adding the word "Greater" to more cities and including outskirt population), more or less there hasn't been much change in the numbers from 2011. So I'd still say the Japanese population in Columbus is still high compared to other US cities excluding the above.

Anyway - coming back to the original question of this thread - I too don't believe there will be a direct Japan-Columbus route anytime soon. I was bringing up a point that Japanese carriers have the tendency to fly to cities with relatively large Japanese company presence and expats in which CMH is one of them. But, the lack of onward connecting traffic demand wouldn't make this possible unless it becomes a major hub airport.

Just chiming in again.

This report (Also from Japan Ministry of Foreign Affair):
http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/000293758.pdf

It shows the Japanese population in all cities. (Gotta love Japanese government, making it very easy to find statistics)

As I suspect, the reason why Columbus is no longer listed is because they separate out Dublin, OH. It list Dublin OH have 2498 Japanese, while Columbus OH has 893. Including Powell, OH (243), it's give or take about 3500 Japanese in Columbus Metro Area (There are probably a few other suburbs that have Japanese here and there).

Meanwhile, looking at Boston area, first glimpse there is 1763 Japanese in Boston, 2355 in Brookline, 1677 in Cambridge, and 582 in Newton. Pretty sure there are about 600-800 elsewhere in cities around, for a total of about 6000 Japanese.

Just on a side note, Miami has maybe 1000 Japanese total in the whole metro area. Then for BNA, Nashville has 424 Japanese, Murfreesboro at 471, Franklin at 292 for a total of around 1200 (maybe). Similar number of Indy (521 in Indianapolis, 190 in Greenwood, 302 in Fishers, 276 in Carmel). And BTW, Austin came in at 706. Even adding in the 606 in San Antonio, again, that's maybe 1300.

So, at the end, yes, Columbus OH actually has a surprisingly big Japanese population. So maybe we should see more "When will CMH gets a flight to Japan" thread from now on

QuawerAir wrote:

Sorry, but AY considers a new service to HND, which is really good. That is not a waste of a slot

Finnland doesn't have HND slots and there's nothing comming from the MLIT suggesting that would change anytime soon.

I am surprised nobody has mentioned MUC

Munich has a massive Japanese expat population. They even have a Japanese school, which most of the places mentioned on this thread dont. On top of that, yields are very high with a lot of Japanese companies with business in Bavaria, and vice versa.

Since places like Detroit or Phoenix have a very high chance as mentioned here, what is the hindrance for JL to start MUC?

intothinair wrote:

I am surprised nobody has mentioned MUC

Munich has a massive Japanese expat population. They even have a Japanese school, which most of the places mentioned on this thread dont. On top of that, yields are very high with a lot of Japanese companies with business in Bavaria, and vice versa.

Since places like Detroit or Phoenix have a very high chance as mentioned here, what is the hindrance for JL to start MUC?

The hindrance would be LH and NH. They each have 1 daily flight (to HND, no less), which is enough to fulfill any demand. No reason for JL to jump into the fight when they have zero connection at MUC, nor I see them getting a ton of loyalty that are used to getting miles on Star Alliance flights.

BCN?

Premier of Western Australia, plus tourism and airport officials were in Tokyo yesterday and had talks with JAL.

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

I agree they get out of hand...I musta missed the big sell/snow jobs in this thread by proponents of some or all these cited cities...I seem to see a lot of chiming in for anything and everything from AUS, BNA, and RDU fans in these thread types though, and oh yeah, I did at least see a suggestion on that group along with PHL.

AMS must be very high up on that list, but how about DUB as another possibility?

joeman wrote:

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

I agree they get out of hand...I musta missed the big sell/snow jobs in this thread by proponents of some or all these cited cities...I seem to see a lot of chiming in for anything and everything from AUS, BNA, and RDU fans in these thread types though, and oh yeah, I did at least see a suggestion on that group along with PHL.

Lots of bashing on IND, CVG, CLE, MCI, MKE, e.t.c on this thread when no one even suggested any of those cities, I only recall reading AUS, BNA, and CMH mentioned here....

Although I totally agree none of those cities have a snowballs chance of being JAL's next destination

Midwestindy wrote:

joeman wrote:

CHI2DFW wrote:

Is it me or are the VW to XYZ threads getting out of hand?

Sorry CLE, CMH, CVG, IND, MCI, MKE, STL, and now DSM: You are not Chicago and Detroit! Sure, you may be more pro-business, but 10M O&D in Chicago is tough to beat. And MKE, sorry, Will county will go to ORD over MKE. Hell, there are busses from all over Wisconsin to ORD, nothing to MKE. Please accept the fact you live in ORDs shadow.

I agree they get out of hand...I musta missed the big sell/snow jobs in this thread by proponents of some or all these cited cities...I seem to see a lot of chiming in for anything and everything from AUS, BNA, and RDU fans in these thread types though, and oh yeah, I did at least see a suggestion on that group along with PHL.

Lots of bashing on IND, CVG, CLE, MCI, MKE, e.t.c on this thread when no one even suggested any of those cities, I only recall reading AUS, BNA, and CMH mentioned here....

Although I totally agree none of those cities have a snowballs chance of being JAL's next destination

I would say that it's more of a sarcastic replies just due to the fact there are threads about "Will (insert random Midwest airport here) get TPAC service" once every so often.

In general I find there are three (and a half) groups, at least when it comes to US airports:
1. The Midwest group, saying how the like of IND or MCI or STL, etc. should now get TPAC service. Happening b/c you can't make thread about whether they'll get TATL services anymore.
1a. klm617 and how we should have non-stop from DTW to every single airports in the world. TPAC not just to NRT or HND but also PUS, KIX, FUK, WUH, TSN, URC, ALA, ULN (Okay...not the last few)
2. The South "high growth" city group, so AUS, BNA, and RDU, and to lesser extent, MSY or CLT.
3. MIA...seriously, this has been how many years?

(BTW, I'm definitely being sarcastic about CMH).

P.S. The one airport without TPAC that I always find to be slightly oddball is PHL anyway. The East Asian population is definitely there, but there's not even 1 flight to that APAC. Too close to NYC I guess?