During its 3rd Quarter Results, Bombardier has announced it has signed a LoI for 31 C Series +30 options from an undisclosed European Customer.

Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, we signed a Letter of Intent with a European customer for up to 61 C Series aircraft, including a firm order for 31 aircraft with options for an additional 30 aircraft. Based on list price of the aircraft, the firm order would be valued at approximately $2.4 billion. The LOI is subject to the execution of a purchase agreement, which is expected before year end;

http://www.bombardier.com/en/media/news ... ercom.html

Thats good news for Bombardier and hopefully the first of many new orders for the C Series.

The unnamed customer- Lufthansa??

Exciting - let the wild speculation begin

Could LH Group have converted 30 options, gotten one free and taken 30 new options?

The 125-seat CS100 would be perfect for SAS as B736 replacement. Lots of tricky small airports in Scandinavia where the sprightly performance of the CS100 will be perfect.

I hope its BA (IAG)

Flybe?

Would have been perfect for KLM to replace their little Fokkers. But that bus has passed.

Although the undisclosed customer approached Bombardier at the end of 3Q, the presence of Airbus, even before the official announcement, helped sign the deal for new aircraft.

Could we add bmi regional (BM) into to the mix to replace their aging Emb 135s and 45s - they have been looking to replace them for a while, but 31 is an over kill for the airline.

We should find out soon as Bombardier expects to finalize the deal in the next two months.

Would be perfect for SAS I agree. Right amount for their 736/73G replacement. The BBC has this news on their financial webpages now as well.

31+30=61 makes the possible customer list pretty short...


One i can think of not mentioned would be TAP... 21 A319 + 13 E190/195... 44 total plus some growth... but it doesn't seem like the right number of aircraft..

SAS doesn't fit any better though... 15 736, 4 A319, 29 73G... 48 total... same problem too high for firm orders, too low for all with LOI. and the 736 would seem to be the prime target for the CS... 15 is too few for 61 total aircraft to be ordered as a replacement.

Lets see... Air France? 18 A318 + 38 A319... 56 total... thats better? However would they do a stand alone order for AF without including KLM?
So KLM... 18 73G... add in Cityhopper and 30 E190s and it sort of fits maybe? Is KLM possibly finding the E190 is not replacing the F70/F100 well for some reason?

Lufthansa gets complicated because we can make some assumptions and screw the numbers up, for the whole group it is far short of what they would need...
But LH itself... 30 A319, straight up 1 for 1 replacement plus options... fits for that nicely.
Eurowings? 18 A319s... too few?
Brussels... 23 A319 + 3 SSJ... fits not badly... but not quite right.
Austrian 7 A319 + 17 E195... 24 total... again not a bad fit but not quite right.

Too few for all of IAG and for individual members, nothing fits well...
Alitalia doesn't fit either...

Cityjet giving up on the SSJ?

Edit one more: HOP! has 50 RJs E190, E170, CR7 and CR1k... 61 CS100 could fit there though thats over 2 airlines... unless AF is taking that flying in house?

Personally I'm betting on an LH A319 replacement.

Someone83 wrote:

I hate all these undisclosed orders....even LoIs like here.

And what is really a "firm LoI" ?

I've read it was "stated intention to order" in other media... i think it may well be just someone meaning an unfinalised order rather than the traditional Letter of Intent.

Someone83 wrote:

And what is really a "firm LoI" ?

It's currently still a standard LoI. Firm just means in this context that when the order is firmed up there will 31 firm order + 30 options. As opposed to standard announcements that an LoI is for up to 61 Bombardier Cseries and then only announcing that it's 31 firm orders and 30 options when the order is finalized.

Doubt its the LH group, unless it is for LH themselves, which I wouldn't put as my first hope. SAS and KLM could be it, though the CSeries is more of a 736/318/717 and 319/73G replacement rather than Fokker and Embraer for KL. SAS has the 736. Air France could be it, seeing their A318 and A319 fleets are not exactly young. BA could be it. I don't think it's Iberia since their A319's are still young-ish. Aeroflot maybe? Not that likely. I doubt that Alitalia would be making 60 aircraft orders now. An LCC maybe? Wild rumor time says it's Aegean and they combine that with the A320neo. Yea really wild ideas.

I hope it's not the LH Group and a completely new customer. It's great seeing BBD getting new orders for the CS. I hope it picks up now that Airbus is in the game as well. YAY!

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

Well, when the AC deal was first announced it was just an LoI too.

Do LH place group orders now? I could see a top up for LX, and possibly gradually phasing out the 319 and 736 from LH, SK, SN and OS?

Any sale is a good sale at this point! Go Cseries!

Wild Card, Jet2 for replacement of x18 737-300, still growing and not afraid of a mixed fleet. I remember seeing something in a promo video for the C Series that had a Jet 2 executive in it.

BA has had strong interest for the CSeries, likely for basing at London City where the CS100 is both operationally capable and would give the airline a lower cost, higher revenue generating plane for that small footprint. It's also a political no-brainer for the airline.

I'm sure Lufthansa is a candidate to buy more CSeries, they have Swiss' operational data and lots of Airbus exposure, but as an existing customer have no reason not to announce orders outright, rather than don the cloak of secrecy.

Maybe it's Finnair. Or Meridiana

It could also be Aegean. They were meant to place a big order by the end of the year!

Easyjet - to replace the A319s they are selling to United

What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series?

I think it's Air France, given its relationship with Airbus. Its fleet of 56 A318+A319 seems to fit the sales volume as well, for total replacement and modest growth. It also has not ordered any replacement for its fleet of A320 series aircraft. Some of those are quite old.

ap305 wrote:

What is Boeing going to do to stop the rest of the world buying the airbus c series?

Boeing is going to ask the US EXIM Bank to stop lending below market rates US Govt subsidized loans to overseas airlines buying 777X but also buying the C-Series.

As much as I'd love this order to be for KLM, I rather suspect that, as other have mentioned, that particular ship has sailed. KLM Cityhopper now operates an all-Embraer fleet with a low average age. While I'm not familiar with their lease agreements, I can't see them starting to replace the older E190s already and the 737 fleet isn't that old either. I'd love to be wrong, but I'd probably lean towards SAS or one of the Lufthansa-Group airlines.

We can probably rule out AirBaltic because their CEO has been very open about wanting to order more C-Series aircraft (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... air-baltic) and expects to order around 14 examples.

Someone83 wrote:

I hate all these undisclosed orders....even LoIs like here.

And what is really a "firm LoI" ?

"firm loi" one written on paper thicker than 80gsm !!!

Seriously, perhaps it means that the discussion took place sitting down in a meeting room rather than a brush past in a corridor

Airframe manufacturers certainly have their own phrasebook don't they

Why would there be tariffs if the frame was exported from the US. That really would be shooting yourself in the foot.

raylee67 wrote:

I think it's Air France, given its relationship with Airbus. Its fleet of 56 A318+A319 seems to fit the sales volume as well, for total replacement and modest growth. It also has not ordered any replacement for its fleet of A320 series aircraft. Some of those are quite old.

That would be my best guess too. The relationship Quebec - Paris shouldn't be ignored either.

What about LO? I think they have 22 E-Jets (E70, E75, E90s), a few CRJ-900s from the Nordica deal, plus a few 737s. While they do have MAXs on order and just leased some 737-800s, 31 seems like a good replacement number plus some growth, with the extra 30 LOI for if/when the new central airport is completed outside Warsaw. They have a few 787-9s coming in, so they'll need to grow to build feed, and to help out with their other European expansion (ie, expand Nordica deal, flights from BUD to ORD/JFK).

I suspect SAS. They have some old 736s and 737s...and some may upgauge CR9 routes.

Dutchy wrote:

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

I'd love to see the Cseries in SAS colours, but I'm a bit sceptical. They are replacing the 737-600 with A320neo and CRJ. And I have the impression that they are moving towards a more standardized fleet after having operated almost every narrowbody built. Although I presume they could be used to replace their A319s and 737-700s, but 31+30 is a big order for SAS.

My guess is Air France, sounds like a good replacement for their A318s and A319s.

Bostrom wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

I'd love to see the Cseries in SAS colours, but I'm a bit sceptical. They are replacing the 737-600 with A320neo and CRJ. And I have the impression that they are moving towards a more standardized fleet after having operated almost every narrowbody built. Although I presume they could be used to replace their A319s and 737-700s, but 31+30 is a big order for SAS.

My guess is Air France, sounds like a good replacement for their A318s and A319s.

Don't you think there would be a dual KLM/Air France order? It does fascinate me that Air France hasn't begun the replacement cycle for the narrowbody fleet yet.
Lot's of a/c to replace with KLM, Air France and Transavia. But there are still new a/c coming in, so they might be alright for now.

StTim wrote:

Why would there be tariffs if the frame was exported from the US. That really would be shooting yourself in the foot.

The tariffs would be levied on parts coming into the US ie. wings from Ireland

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I suspect SAS. They have some old 736s and 737s...and some may upgauge CR9 routes.

Agree with you about the 736/737 - but they do not own any CR9 any more - i think it is Cittilink that makes this production for them.



.

Couprace wrote:

StTim wrote:

Why would there be tariffs if the frame was exported from the US. That really would be shooting yourself in the foot.

The tariffs would be levied on parts coming into the US ie. wings from Ireland

Last I checked Ireland is not a province in Canada. Do you realize how your statement and that fact will have a negative impact on US trade? Keep isolating yourself...

I was thinking about LOT, but they already have 6 embraers on order. It could be SAS

Bostrom wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

I'd love to see the Cseries in SAS colours, but I'm a bit sceptical. They are replacing the 737-600 with A320neo and CRJ. And I have the impression that they are moving towards a more standardized fleet after having operated almost every narrowbody built. Although I presume they could be used to replace their A319s and 737-700s, but 31+30 is a big order for SAS.

My guess is Air France, sounds like a good replacement for their A318s and A319s.

I just can't see SAS either, regardless of how much I would love it. The 737-600 replacement is already accounted for with the CRJs, ATRs and A320NEOs. The oldest 737-700s are also being replaced by this combination. They just don't have a need for 31 C-series for the next 10 years, and even then it would probably be for the CS500 rather than CS300 or CS100.

Airboe wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I suspect SAS. They have some old 736s and 737s...and some may upgauge CR9 routes.

Agree with you about the 736/737 - but they do not own any CR9 any more - i think it is Cittilink that makes this production for them.

CityJet, not Citilink

raylee67 wrote:

Boeing is going to ask the US EXIM Bank to stop lending below market rates US Govt subsidized loans to overseas airlines buying 777X but also buying the C-Series.

Take loan from Europe instead, pay C-Series, drop 777X buy A35k, thumb at GE, bugger RR for some nice engines.

Dutchy wrote:

Bostrom wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

I'd love to see the Cseries in SAS colours, but I'm a bit sceptical. They are replacing the 737-600 with A320neo and CRJ. And I have the impression that they are moving towards a more standardized fleet after having operated almost every narrowbody built. Although I presume they could be used to replace their A319s and 737-700s, but 31+30 is a big order for SAS.

My guess is Air France, sounds like a good replacement for their A318s and A319s.

Don't you think there would be a dual KLM/Air France order? It does fascinate me that Air France hasn't begun the replacement cycle for the narrowbody fleet yet.
Lot's of a/c to replace with KLM, Air France and Transavia. But there are still new a/c coming in, so they might be alright for now.

That would make sense, but they seem to go their own way currently with KLM flying 737s and Air France A320-series. But maybe they are meant to replace AF A318 and A319 and KLM 737-700?

But to be honest, I'm just guessing, Hopefully we'll know soon. And I'm really happy about a new order for the Cseries.

Air France to replace their A318 and A319 fleet. Once the CSeries gets a foothold in the european market and the numbers stack up, I can see it carving out a market for itself. Wouldn't surprise me too if BA order it to replace it's A319s. With Airbus in charge, it's a shot in the arm for the programme and a guarantee to possible buyers - especially those who were on the fence previously.

That said, I've got a niggling feeling in the back of my head maybe it's easyJet...

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

Or can we see a change in Air Notrum from CRJ to CS?

I am sure Airbus will be willing to trade for some low hr A319's. Airbus has said that they are cancelling the 319. To have some low hr A319's on hand to sell with new NEO'S to airlines that require cominality in their fleet would be very useful

LupineChemist wrote:

I say IAG to go to both EI and IB. Perfect for connecting smaller cities in Europe to the hub. Not too sure of the capacity situation at DUB, but MAD has plenty of available slots so aircraft size isn't a big issue.

Problem is EI has nothing in the sub A320 size now...

Now IB only has 16 A319s... not enough to need 61 orders/options. However if you add the 31 CRJ9/CRJ1Ks at Nostrum it doesn't seem that bad of a fit...

BA has 44 A319s by itself... 61 doesn't fit well... but if you add the 14 E190s from Cityflyer... then 58 fits.

I still think though that LH is a better bet, 30 A319s to 31 CS300s. plus 30 options for later use... They have been stable at 30 A319s for some time and haven't ordered any replacement for them unlike the NEO orders for the 320 and 321.

I reckon its Air france for the political side of the spectrum. AC and AF with the Cseries speaks.

keesje wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

I think it's Air France, given its relationship with Airbus. Its fleet of 56 A318+A319 seems to fit the sales volume as well, for total replacement and modest growth. It also has not ordered any replacement for its fleet of A320 series aircraft. Some of those are quite old.

That would be my best guess too. The relationship Quebec - Paris shouldn't be ignored either.

Yeah, I'm going with this one too. It fits within the fleet replacement schedule of AF. The CASM delta between 318/319 and CS100/300 should be massive, right? And it supports both Toulouse and Quebec indeed. I know AF owns a gazillion 777s, so I'm the first to say they would buy as they see fit, but I believe this purchase would give AF a few brownie points with French central government, which is always good to have. (Labour discussions anyone?).

Airboe wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I suspect SAS. They have some old 736s and 737s...and some may upgauge CR9 routes.

Agree with you about the 736/737 - but they do not own any CR9 any more - i think it is Cittilink that makes this production for them.

.

I would like to see it in SAS colours - if would fit their traditions perfectly to have all types...

The numbers do not match, however. It seems also too many to LO, TP or AY unless they have hyperoptimistic growth plans. Finnair is rumoured to be in the process of renewing their partly aging narrowbody fleet, but I cannot see how they would need that many small planes unless CS500 were included. AirBaltic may want more but not that many more.

Hence I suspect 1) LH group 2) AF/KL 3) IAG. (4. some unannounced merged or overtaken airline with bloated expansion hype)

I just don't understand that obsession with AF ? They have a ton of Boeing planes....

Dutchy wrote:

Bostrom wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

My bed would be on SAS. We'll going to find out in the next month or 3 which one of us is right.

I'd love to see the Cseries in SAS colours, but I'm a bit sceptical. They are replacing the 737-600 with A320neo and CRJ. And I have the impression that they are moving towards a more standardized fleet after having operated almost every narrowbody built. Although I presume they could be used to replace their A319s and 737-700s, but 31+30 is a big order for SAS.

My guess is Air France, sounds like a good replacement for their A318s and A319s.

Don't you think there would be a dual KLM/Air France order? It does fascinate me that Air France hasn't begun the replacement cycle for the narrowbody fleet yet.
Lot's of a/c to replace with KLM, Air France and Transavia. But there are still new a/c coming in, so they might be alright for now.

I think the timing of KLMs replacement cycle is off for AF and KLM to buy together. It would otherwise make good sense. But KL just has too many quite young E-Jets to replace them now with C-series. And I am not sure how strong the 2nd hand market of the E-Jets is. Only type in the Cseries range KL needs to replace relatively soon would be the 73Gs. There I can also see them going for a mix of E2-195s and 737M8's to avoid bringing a new type into the fleet.