Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
ROCDLFAN wrote:This hub is a virtual smoke screen at this point, with a domestic operation beginning to resemble CLE in its final days. The only reason this hub is continuously viable, is because of the government traffic that comes through internationally, and through the massive Star Alliance operation at IAD. The domestic operation severely needs a re-vamp.
STT757 wrote:ROCDLFAN wrote:This hub is a virtual smoke screen at this point, with a domestic operation beginning to resemble CLE in its final days. The only reason this hub is continuously viable, is because of the government traffic that comes through internationally, and through the massive Star Alliance operation at IAD. The domestic operation severely needs a re-vamp.
The comparison to CLE is really unfair, domestically just look at trans-Cons for comparison. CLE , outside of SFO and LAX, only flirted with SEA and SAN on seasonal basis, 1x daily with 735s, on a few occasions. UA today, off season, operates from IAD: SEA 3x, PDX 1x, SFO 11x, LAX 6x, SAN 3x.
STT757 wrote:ROCDLFAN wrote:This hub is a virtual smoke screen at this point, with a domestic operation beginning to resemble CLE in its final days. The only reason this hub is continuously viable, is because of the government traffic that comes through internationally, and through the massive Star Alliance operation at IAD. The domestic operation severely needs a re-vamp.
The comparison to CLE is really unfair, domestically just look at trans-Cons for comparison. CLE , outside of SFO and LAX, only flirted with SEA and SAN on seasonal basis, 1x daily with 735s, on a few occasions. UA today, off season, operates from IAD: SEA 3x, PDX 1x, SFO 11x, LAX 6x, SAN 3x.
jfklganyc wrote:I think this would be a great spot for B6s next hub.
Theyre done on the west coast. Might as well go full US Air and open yet another hub at this underused airport.
UA isnt commited to anything IAD. A LCC hub would shrink them further.
We have all hashed out the issues with IAD.
But the future in this rapidly growing suburban area is bright. Just need an airline with a long term view
izbtmnhd wrote:STT757 wrote:ROCDLFAN wrote:This hub is a virtual smoke screen at this point, with a domestic operation beginning to resemble CLE in its final days. The only reason this hub is continuously viable, is because of the government traffic that comes through internationally, and through the massive Star Alliance operation at IAD. The domestic operation severely needs a re-vamp.
The comparison to CLE is really unfair, domestically just look at trans-Cons for comparison. CLE , outside of SFO and LAX, only flirted with SEA and SAN on seasonal basis, 1x daily with 735s, on a few occasions. UA today, off season, operates from IAD: SEA 3x, PDX 1x, SFO 11x, LAX 6x, SAN 3x.
PDX was also summer seasonal from CLE in the final years of their hub. I'm not quite sure if I would consider UA SAN-CLE as even seasonal service. It basically operated for a few weeks around the Christmas holiday.
IAD-PDX has been reduced to summer seasonal 1x, which is amazing in itself considering size of the DC area compared to CLE.
ROC is right on government contracts keeping the hub viable though.jfklganyc wrote:I think this would be a great spot for B6s next hub.
Theyre done on the west coast. Might as well go full US Air and open yet another hub at this underused airport.
UA isnt commited to anything IAD. A LCC hub would shrink them further.
We have all hashed out the issues with IAD.
But the future in this rapidly growing suburban area is bright. Just need an airline with a long term view
B6 tried to increase it's service levels at IAD after Independence Air went under in 2005. Pretty much a massive failure. Not quite sure what dynamics now make it a great spot for B6 or any other LCC or ULCC to create a hub there. There just never seems to be enough demand.
Also, the growth in the suburban area around IAD is slowing down, increasing at roughly half the pace of last decade.
STT757 wrote:ROCDLFAN wrote:This hub is a virtual smoke screen at this point, with a domestic operation beginning to resemble CLE in its final days. The only reason this hub is continuously viable, is because of the government traffic that comes through internationally, and through the massive Star Alliance operation at IAD. The domestic operation severely needs a re-vamp.
The comparison to CLE is really unfair, domestically just look at trans-Cons for comparison. CLE , outside of SFO and LAX, only flirted with SEA and SAN on seasonal basis, 1x daily with 735s, on a few occasions. UA today, off season, operates from IAD: SEA 3x, PDX 1x, SFO 11x, LAX 6x, SAN 3x.
tphuang wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:STT757 wrote:
The comparison to CLE is really unfair, domestically just look at trans-Cons for comparison. CLE , outside of SFO and LAX, only flirted with SEA and SAN on seasonal basis, 1x daily with 735s, on a few occasions. UA today, off season, operates from IAD: SEA 3x, PDX 1x, SFO 11x, LAX 6x, SAN 3x.
PDX was also summer seasonal from CLE in the final years of their hub. I'm not quite sure if I would consider UA SAN-CLE as even seasonal service. It basically operated for a few weeks around the Christmas holiday.
IAD-PDX has been reduced to summer seasonal 1x, which is amazing in itself considering size of the DC area compared to CLE.
ROC is right on government contracts keeping the hub viable though.jfklganyc wrote:I think this would be a great spot for B6s next hub.
Theyre done on the west coast. Might as well go full US Air and open yet another hub at this underused airport.
UA isnt commited to anything IAD. A LCC hub would shrink them further.
We have all hashed out the issues with IAD.
But the future in this rapidly growing suburban area is bright. Just need an airline with a long term view
B6 tried to increase it's service levels at IAD after Independence Air went under in 2005. Pretty much a massive failure. Not quite sure what dynamics now make it a great spot for B6 or any other LCC or ULCC to create a hub there. There just never seems to be enough demand.
Also, the growth in the suburban area around IAD is slowing down, increasing at roughly half the pace of last decade.
I think b6 should look to setup a focus city here. It moved to dca as soon as it got the slots there, but if Dulles could get it's cost down a little bit, I think b6 will be back. Not many places left to expand on east coast. Especially if JetBlue starts LGA dca shuttle flights down the road. It would need to move those dca flights to Dulles and also it can certainly add flights to the islands and transcon.
Would be interesting to see how ua reacts if any other carrier looks to expand here.
Themotionman wrote:I couldn't find any threads talking about United at Dulles. In particular what we should expect in the future. At the moment United operates just over 200 flights a day to 102 destinations. Could we see an increase in daily flights and/or destinations and what routes could we see open or close? Could we see a change in strategy from UA at Dulles?
It would be interesting to know everyone's thoughts on United's future at IAD...
westgate wrote:Having a quick look at departures for IAD on FlightStats it would appear that UA has 4 relatively decent sized banks to domestic destinations, and although I only checked the equipment on a few of the flights, I'm sure they're almost entirely made up of RJ flying. However, as mentioned in another thread, where UA is looking to purchase a significant number of used A319/A320's (more A319) and close the gap they have with AA and DL in terms of narrow bodies (both have 200 more than UA), perhaps we could see a significant upgauge on some flights out of IAD from RJ's to A319's, and perhaps even a few new destinations especially out west where the range is needed ?
UA's primary reason for lack of expnsion at IAD could indeed be due to their scarcity of narrowbody mainline jets that are more urgently needed at other larger hubs. If an influx of new narrow bodies does occur, I would expect IAD to grow at least a little bit, as perhaps there's only so much UA can currently do with it as a hub when they only have RJ's at their disposal for expansion.
toxtethogrady wrote:Themotionman wrote:I couldn't find any threads talking about United at Dulles. In particular what we should expect in the future. At the moment United operates just over 200 flights a day to 102 destinations. Could we see an increase in daily flights and/or destinations and what routes could we see open or close? Could we see a change in strategy from UA at Dulles?
It would be interesting to know everyone's thoughts on United's future at IAD...
Haven't we been fretting about this for over a decade? UA needs another Transatlantic jumping-off point, and there is a lot of prestige in serving the Nation's Capital. In addition, there's a tech corridor developing along SH 28 along the Fairfax-Loudoun line. IF UA gave that up, someone would grab it.
Themotionman wrote:There is no chance of B6 ever opening an IAD focus city. One of the primary issues with IAD is its poor location compared to DCA. So B6 cant just go in and offer their standard plethora of Florida destinations as they are inside the perimeter restriction and American would absolutely slaughter them.
asuflyer05 wrote:I have always wondered if AA could make a DCA/IAD hub operation work similar to what Delta does at LGA/JFK but I digress, I don't think the UA hub at IAD is going anywhere.
Ezra wrote:asuflyer05 wrote:I have always wondered if AA could make a DCA/IAD hub operation work similar to what Delta does at LGA/JFK but I digress, I don't think the UA hub at IAD is going anywhere.
I've wondered this in a similar context -- namely, how vulnerable is UA at IAD if another airline wants to come in and set up shop? Could AA or DL (or maybe B6) pull a repeat of what Delta did in Seattle and build a new hub under the nose of the dominant carrier? I understand the business cases are different, but there are some similarities as well...
westgate wrote:UA's primary reason for lack of expnsion at IAD could indeed be due to their scarcity of narrowbody mainline jets that are more urgently needed at other larger hubs.
MIflyer12 wrote:westgate wrote:UA's primary reason for lack of expnsion at IAD could indeed be due to their scarcity of narrowbody mainline jets that are more urgently needed at other larger hubs.
I don't follow the logic of UA having this multi-year scarcity of aircraft. Look at the rate of deliveries to AA and WN. If UA wanted mainline narrowbodies, it could have them. The absence of a number that some people think is right (let's say +200, a number that keeps coming up) suggests UA doesn't think it has enough profitable route opportunities to justify the investment, even in a time of low fuel prices and low interest rates.
MIflyer12 wrote:westgate wrote:UA's primary reason for lack of expnsion at IAD could indeed be due to their scarcity of narrowbody mainline jets that are more urgently needed at other larger hubs.
I don't follow the logic of UA having this multi-year scarcity of aircraft. Look at the rate of deliveries to AA and WN. If UA wanted mainline narrowbodies, it could have them. The absence of a number that some people think is right (let's say +200, a number that keeps coming up) suggests UA doesn't think it has enough profitable route opportunities to justify the investment, even in a time of low fuel prices and low interest rates.
United787 wrote:My biggest gripe with the IAD hub is that there aren't enough flights between ORD and IAD. They should make IAD into more of a UA gateway to Europe. When flying to Europe from ORD, if a non-stop from ORD isn't available, UA will most often route me through FRA rather than EWR or IAD which I always find surprising. I would never choose EWR because of the potential to be delayed and miss connections. But, I would choose IAD if I had the option. The problem most often seems to be that the ORD-IAD leg is always full or poorly timed. It seems that UA doesn't want it's huge loyal customer base to connect at IAD... I don't get it.
jasoncrh wrote:Timing is not an issue. United's two big European banks at Dulles leave at 5Pm and 10PM (or so). United has feeder flights from ORD that arrive in / are timed specifically to connect at IAD to those banks. I cant tell you the number of times over the years I've gone ORD-IAD-XXX in Europe. Most recently it was ORD-IAD-LIS, but have done ORD-IAD-FCO (before there was ORD-FCO nonstop), ORD-IAD-BCN, etc etc etc. Not sure why. I will say they use to have larger planes - the 1PM ORD - IAD, which is still there and connects to the 5PM bank of European flights, use to be operated by a 777. Now it's maybe a narrow body. Either way, those connections do exist - it might just be a function of it being a narrow body - that may explain why those options are not as available to you.United787 wrote:My biggest gripe with the IAD hub is that there aren't enough flights between ORD and IAD. They should make IAD into more of a UA gateway to Europe. When flying to Europe from ORD, if a non-stop from ORD isn't available, UA will most often route me through FRA rather than EWR or IAD which I always find surprising. I would never choose EWR because of the potential to be delayed and miss connections. But, I would choose IAD if I had the option. The problem most often seems to be that the ORD-IAD leg is always full or poorly timed. It seems that UA doesn't want it's huge loyal customer base to connect at IAD... I don't get it.
izbtmnhd wrote:Since the B6 posts were deleted let me reiterate something in general:
There's really no hint from any of the airlines serving the DC/Balt metros that DCA is "maxed out". So the idea floating on these forums (which has been for decades) IAD is on the verge of a massive domestic explosion just isn't real. UA continues to struggle to make the domestic operation work and DCA and BWI continue to capture most of the growing domestic passenger feed.
blockski wrote:Sure there is. DCA's growth has flatlined.
masseybrown wrote:blockski wrote:Sure there is. DCA's growth has flatlined.
There will be another increment of growth when AA's new gates are completed. All those 50-seaters parked outside Gate 35X will be up-gauged.
blockski wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:Since the B6 posts were deleted let me reiterate something in general:
There's really no hint from any of the airlines serving the DC/Balt metros that DCA is "maxed out". So the idea floating on these forums (which has been for decades) IAD is on the verge of a massive domestic explosion just isn't real. UA continues to struggle to make the domestic operation work and DCA and BWI continue to capture most of the growing domestic passenger feed.
Sure there is. DCA's growth has flatlined. Look at MWAA's most recent stats: http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... pdf#page=8
DCA's traffic shot up dramatically after 2014, following the US/AA merger and the accompanying slot divestitures - the big increase came from WN getting more slots. Now that they've reached an equilibrium again, it's not clear where else the growth would come from barring another big outside policy change. The airport is still slotted and always will be. The physical limitations of the airfield and airport limit the size of the aircraft that can serve it - you could in theory up-gauge more flights, but some of the slots are limited to RJs and the facilities to accommodate more mainline aircraft aren't there.
izbtmnhd wrote:blockski wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:Since the B6 posts were deleted let me reiterate something in general:
There's really no hint from any of the airlines serving the DC/Balt metros that DCA is "maxed out". So the idea floating on these forums (which has been for decades) IAD is on the verge of a massive domestic explosion just isn't real. UA continues to struggle to make the domestic operation work and DCA and BWI continue to capture most of the growing domestic passenger feed.
Sure there is. DCA's growth has flatlined. Look at MWAA's most recent stats: http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... pdf#page=8
DCA's traffic shot up dramatically after 2014, following the US/AA merger and the accompanying slot divestitures - the big increase came from WN getting more slots. Now that they've reached an equilibrium again, it's not clear where else the growth would come from barring another big outside policy change. The airport is still slotted and always will be. The physical limitations of the airfield and airport limit the size of the aircraft that can serve it - you could in theory up-gauge more flights, but some of the slots are limited to RJs and the facilities to accommodate more mainline aircraft aren't there.
If DCA has been "maxed out" since 2014 where is the IAD domestic explosion that supposedly will happen as argued by several a.net posters? Stats don't show it.
http://www.mwaa.com/about/dulles-air-traffic-statistics
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... report.pdf
USAirALB wrote:My one dream (that will never happen) is for AA to develop a minor O&D hublet at IAD-maybe operating IAD-SEA/LHR/MAD/NRT/DUB/CDG.
tphuang wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:blockski wrote:
Sure there is. DCA's growth has flatlined. Look at MWAA's most recent stats: http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... pdf#page=8
DCA's traffic shot up dramatically after 2014, following the US/AA merger and the accompanying slot divestitures - the big increase came from WN getting more slots. Now that they've reached an equilibrium again, it's not clear where else the growth would come from barring another big outside policy change. The airport is still slotted and always will be. The physical limitations of the airfield and airport limit the size of the aircraft that can serve it - you could in theory up-gauge more flights, but some of the slots are limited to RJs and the facilities to accommodate more mainline aircraft aren't there.
If DCA has been "maxed out" since 2014 where is the IAD domestic explosion that supposedly will happen as argued by several a.net posters? Stats don't show it.
http://www.mwaa.com/about/dulles-air-traffic-statistics
http://www.mwaa.com/sites/default/files ... report.pdf
Again just because it hasn't grown in the last 2 years, doesn't mean that won't happen. Jfk was left languishing domestically for years and then it happened. Iad has certain conditions which make it unfavourable for expansion currently, but it is also one of the few expansion options left out there.
izbtmnhd wrote:tphuang wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:
Also, I don't like to compare DC to NYC. I know they each have three airports but NYC is three times as large than DC/Baltimore combined so the pool of available passengers is quite different.
USAirALB wrote:The best thing that IAD has going for it IMHO is the very nice Concourse A/B area. The TK lounge is quite possibly one of the nicest domestic lounges in the USA.
One of things that has long interested me is that the IAD hub (domestically speaking) has long been a low-frequency, regional operation. For example, when US was flying PHL-ALB/BUF/BDL/PVD multiple times a day with E-jets and mainline aircraft, all but one (BDL) saw mainline aircraft from IAD. All the others were flown on CRJs, Q200s, or ERJs.
My one dream (that will never happen) is for AA to develop a minor O&D hublet at IAD-maybe operating IAD-SEA/LHR/MAD/NRT/DUB/CDG.
Themotionman wrote:If all goes well with EWR-EZE could we expect IAD-EZE?
USAirALB wrote:The best thing that IAD has going for it IMHO is the very nice Concourse A/B area.
asuflyer05 wrote:I have always wondered if AA could make a DCA/IAD hub operation work similar to what Delta does at LGA/JFK but I digress, I don't think the UA hub at IAD is going anywhere.
I think a lot of the UA/IAD naysayers are largely unfamiliar with the pace of development in Northern Virginia and general traffic patterns in the area. I believe over the next 10-15 years Dulles will become a much more important airport for the DC area as development pushes towards the airport. There are 10s of millions of planned office space planned almost all of which is attached to transit-oriented, mixed-use retail/residential. IAD already has a direct toll-free, express lane from Tysons Corner; soon will have a Metro connection and is in the heart of the Route 28/Dulles Toll Road technology hub.
donindc wrote:izbtmnhd wrote:tphuang wrote:
NYC/NJ combined MSA = 20,153,634. Balt/Wash combined MSA - 9,930,883. JFK/LGA/EWR combined enplanements for 2016 = 63,924,753. DCA/BWI/IAD combined enplanements for 2016 = 34,408,768. So, more like twice as large.
staralliance85 wrote:UA President Scott Kirby was traveling through IAD this summer. He said IAD does great outside The Perimeter Rule at DCA (flight within 1200 miles) and IAD is not closing anytime soon. As long as Congress does not pursue scrapping The Perimeter Rule at DCA, UA at IAD will be at least status quo for many years.
DCAfan wrote:The major structural problem at IAD was the choice of the loop design for Aerotrain. United wanted a 4 car spine down the centerline like they have at DEN. But MWAA thought that wasn't good enough for Dulles. The loop design they adopted is essentially two spines joined together by a loop at each end which, if ever competed, results in twice the track mileage and rail stations than Uniited's preferred option. IMO the domestic industry cannot afford this highly expensive piece of airport infrastructure, so I am not terribly sanguine about Dulles' future as a domestic airport.