WestJet Q3 update reveals that the company has changed its 737 MAX 9 order into the larger 737 MAX 10.

Source
https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-web/d ... Report.pdf

The worst kept secret in the industry lives up to the name...

I expect many airlines who have in the past ordered both the B738M and B739M to switch their B739M orders to the larger -10M variant like how WS has done so here. The difference in capacity between the B7M8 and B7M9 is not that much but versus the 7M1 there is a bit.

Not surprising given what a dog the 737-9MAX is; upgrading to the -10 is a logical choice. How many firm orders for 737-9MAX remain? On another note, how long are they planing on keeping the 737-600s? (hopefully as long as possible)

The number of 737-7 on order has also increased from 20 to 23.

Unsurprising, I think all but the early MAX 9 orders/deliveries are 'at risk' of being converted. WS will do well with the MAX 10.

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive.

I wish Scandinavian Airlines would keep their 737-600s that long!

MrHMSH wrote:

Unsurprising

A bit surprising to me. WestJet ordered the MAX 9 only 8 months ago. This must be one of the quickest conversions.

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

Only sort of. There is a line listing lease expirations without specify which type, so it could be a that there are some -600s here. Even though there's also possibility to extend the leases

Momo1435 wrote:

The number of 737-7 on order has also increased from 20 to 23.

That is probably more surprising than the switch to the 10.

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

The table shows 41 planes leases expiring between now and 2027. It doesn't seem to specify which ones will be returned.

Someone83 wrote:

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

Only sort of. There is a line listing lease expirations without specify which type, so it could be a that there are some -600s here. Even though there's also possibility to extend the leases

cledaybuck wrote:

The table shows 41 planes leases expiring between now and 2027. It doesn't seem to specify which ones will be returned.

While it doesn't specify in the table, it does say in the fine print that of the 56 73Gs in the fleet, 27 are leased, and of the 46 738s in the fleet 14 are leased. 27+14=41. So presumably those are the aircraft that Westjet is talking about that have lease expirations between now and 2027, and all the 736s are owned.

This is just a current fleet plan mostly going over future deliveries however, WS is not locked into it forever. Some of the leases may be extended and I doubt WS will keep all 736s (and 767s) for 10 more years. They just don't know when they will retire them yet as that will likely depend on future demand and oil prices.

Someone83 wrote:

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

Only sort of. There is a line listing lease expirations without specify which type, so it could be a that there are some -600s here. Even though there's also possibility to extend the leases

However, I'm pretty sure WS owns the entire 736 fleet, which would make sense as to why they'll stick around.

I wonder how long it'll be before WS orders more Q400s. There is still a tonne of regional flying potential for WS to tap into beyond the 3 remaining frames they have on order. In Ontario alone, YAM, YQG, YTS and YYB are all potential Q400 markets. YQG seems like a no-brainer to turn the seasonal destination into a year-round destination.

Interesting. I was waiting for this to happen. This makes me wonder if it's just a matter of time until AS converts their 737-9 order to the 737-10.

Makes you wonder if WN would ever consider the MAX 10? Like someone else noted,
the jump in capacity fron the 8 to 9 ian't that much, but the MAX 10 might interest WN?

Sooner787 wrote:

Makes you wonder if WN would ever consider the MAX 10? Like someone else noted,
the jump in capacity fron the 8 to 9 ian't that much, but the MAX 10 might interest WN?

There was a very recent thread on just that topic.

KarelXWB wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Unsurprising

A bit surprising to me. WestJet ordered the MAX 9 only 8 months ago. This must be one of the quickest conversions.

The MAX 10 was only confirmed to be built 5 months ago....

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

The 600s are owned and not going anywhere yet, they are used on many different routes across the WS system.

KarelXWB wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Unsurprising

A bit surprising to me. WestJet ordered the MAX 9 only 8 months ago. This must be one of the quickest conversions.

I am not sure if 8 months ago is when they actually converted to the MAX 9 or if that is when it was publicly shared.

Whiteguy wrote:

KarelXWB wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

Unsurprising

A bit surprising to me. WestJet ordered the MAX 9 only 8 months ago. This must be one of the quickest conversions.

The MAX 10 was only confirmed to be built 5 months ago....

No, the MAX 10 was only officially launched 5 months ago. Boeing was talking to airlines about it long before then and Westjet would have definitely known about its future existence 3 months before launch.

Whiteguy wrote:

The MAX 10 was only confirmed to be built 5 months ago....

Designing a new airplane type, even if it's just a stretch, can easily take 12 to 24 months. Boeing has been talking about a 737 stretch to its customers long before its official launch. There have been several discussions about the MAX 10 in 2016. Hence only 3 months before launch, I'm pretty convinced WestJet knew the MAX 10 was coming.

WestJet could have just waited out and see the market repsonse to the MAX 10 before jumping in.

On the other hand, the MAX 9 would have come much earlier then the MAX 10. The MAX 9 slots have been converted to the MAX 8 and MAX 7, with later MAX 8 slots being converted to the MAX 10. It could have been a quick change of strategy, simply (ab)using their freedom to change their order without penalities.

And therefore will have had an easy conversion option in the contract.

KarelXWB wrote:

Whiteguy wrote:

The MAX 10 was only confirmed to be built 5 months ago....

Designing a new airplane type, even if it's just a stretch, can easily take 12 to 24 months. Boeing has been talking about a 737 stretch to its customers long before its official launch. There have been several discussions about the MAX 10 in 2016. Hence only 3 months before launch, I'm pretty convinced WestJet knew the MAX 10 was coming.

Indeed, and it could very well have been part of the contract that should the MAX 10 be announced, they had the option to easily upgrade.

Someone83 wrote:

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

What are their plans with the MAX 7? Will it be a 150-seat trans-Atlantic bird? Or will they squeeze in 172 seats, which is the new 7 max seat count?

Only sort of. There is a line listing lease expirations without specify which type, so it could be a that there are some -600s here. Even though there's also possibility to extend the leases

I am not sure that any 736s are leased. There are 737s and 738s that are leased...mostly on sale-leasebacks although a few 737s are direct leases from GECAS. As for the future fleet, I expect WS to be B738s, B3JM (MAX 10), and B789. Remember that 10 formerly owned B737s were already sold to WN.

I wonder if AC will do the same

Momo1435 wrote:

On the other hand, the MAX 9 would have come much earlier then the MAX 10.

True.

According to the previous Q1 schedule (see below), the MAX 9 was due to arrive in 2018. That is not going to happen anymore.

The two charts taken together paint a different picture.
They were previously to take 25 7max and 30 8max. Now they are taking 23 7max and 20 8 max.
This looks like a conversion of 2 7max and 10 8max to yield the new 12 10max planes...
The 10 9max planes are just droppped.

Add it all up there are 10 fewer 10max planes being delivered by 2027...

ODwyerPW wrote:

The two charts taken together paint a different picture.
They were previously to take 25 7max and 30 8max. Now they are taking 23 7max and 20 8 max.
This looks like a conversion of 2 7max and 10 8max to yield the new 12 10max planes...
The 10 9max planes are just droppped.

Add it all up there are 10 fewer 10max planes being delivered by 2027...

Total MAX order has increased from 50 to 55, also many lease extensions were completed.

A proper comparison would be the Q2 fleet plan to the 3Q fleet plan!

It is a further example that the 737-10 mainly eradicated the 737-9 through conversion, add a few conversions from 737-8 and 737-7 and a few new orders and you have the 737-10 numbers. The 737-10 mainly seems to compete with different 737MAX versions.

ODwyerPW wrote:

The two charts taken together paint a different picture.
They were previously to take 25 7max and 30 8max. Now they are taking 23 7max and 20 8 max.
This looks like a conversion of 2 7max and 10 8max to yield the new 12 10max planes...
The 10 9max planes are just droppped.

Add it all up there are 10 fewer 10max planes being delivered by 2027...

You are forgetting that Westjet cancelled 15 737Maxs earlier this year when they ordered the 787 and converted them to options.

Westjet had 25 Max 7, 30 Max 8, and 10 Max 9 on order at end of last year (65 total), with 10 options. Then they canceled 15 (so 50 total). Now Westjet is showing having 55 737Maxs on order to be delivered (with 25 purchase options). So Westjet either has 5 orders under unidentified (not taken from their options) or more likely is leasing 5 frames from someone.

I suspect that the 15 planes canceled were 5 Max 7 and 10 Max 8, and Westjet is leasing 3 additional Max 7 (probably from ALC who ordered 5 this year) and 2 additional Max 10.

mjoelnir wrote:

It is a further example that the 737-10 mainly eradicated the 737-9 through conversion, add a few conversions from 737-8 and 737-7 and a few new orders and you have the 737-10 numbers. The 737-10 mainly seems to compete with different 737MAX versions.

Very natural for the early stages of newly sized variant. Many airlines are going to evaluate their current orders and determine whether the new option works better for them. The Max 10 hasn't been on the market long enough to win many new orders (i.e., it is not like the A321 has seen significant new orders since the 737 Max 10's launch either), and since Boeing no longer gives breakdowns on models we only new about new 737 Max 10 orders if airline publicly announces it.

ODwyerPW wrote:

The two charts taken together paint a different picture.
They were previously to take 25 7max and 30 8max. Now they are taking 23 7max and 20 8 max.
This looks like a conversion of 2 7max and 10 8max to yield the new 12 10max planes...
The 10 9max planes are just droppped.

Add it all up there are 10 fewer 10max planes being delivered by 2027...

The 737 Max thread explains well what happened with the order,its dropped to the Max order to 50 on the 787 order but now its up to 55

Polot wrote:

ODwyerPW wrote:

The two charts taken together paint a different picture.
They were previously to take 25 7max and 30 8max. Now they are taking 23 7max and 20 8 max.
This looks like a conversion of 2 7max and 10 8max to yield the new 12 10max planes...
The 10 9max planes are just droppped.

Add it all up there are 10 fewer 10max planes being delivered by 2027...

You are forgetting that Westjet cancelled 15 737Maxs earlier this year when they ordered the 787 and converted them to options.

Westjet had 25 Max 7, 30 Max 8, and 10 Max 9 on order at end of last year (65 total), with 10 options. Then they canceled 15 (so 50 total). Now Westjet is showing having 55 737Maxs on order to be delivered (with 25 purchase options). So Westjet either has 5 orders under unidentified (not taken from their options) or more likely is leasing 5 frames from someone.

I suspect that the 15 planes canceled were 5 Max 7 and 10 Max 8, and Westjet is leasing 3 additional Max 7 (probably from ALC who ordered 5 this year) and 2 additional Max 10.

mjoelnir wrote:

It is a further example that the 737-10 mainly eradicated the 737-9 through conversion, add a few conversions from 737-8 and 737-7 and a few new orders and you have the 737-10 numbers. The 737-10 mainly seems to compete with different 737MAX versions.

Very natural for the early stages of newly sized variant. Many airlines are going to evaluate their current orders and determine whether the new option works better for them. The Max 10 hasn't been on the market long enough to win many new orders (i.e., it is not like the A321 has seen significant new orders since the 737 Max 10's launch either), and since Boeing no longer gives breakdowns on models we only new about new 737 Max 10 orders if airline publicly announces it.

The 15 airframes were converted to options for later years. The MAX7 order has been increased by 3 overall. All orders can be substituted for the different types, your going to see tweaks to the fleet plan every quarter I'm sure.

Not surpised. The MAX9 sounds like a comparative dog alongside the 321neo.

Is there a consistent scenario where the MAX9 would outperform the MAX10 and warrant it to be picked over the MAX10?... Availability issues aside.

Boeing should cancel the -9Max and simply offer the -7/-8/-10 models. The -9 probably has zero missions where it makes sense over a -10. With the new gear upgrades and uprated engines, the -10Max ought to actually be a decent bird. I’m sure it will rack up several hundred or more orders easily.

TranscendZac wrote:

Boeing should cancel the -9Max and simply offer the -7/-8/-10 models. The -9 probably has zero missions where it makes sense over a -10. With the new gear upgrades and updated engines, the -10Max ought to be a decent bird. I’m sure it will rack up several hundred or more orders easily.

The first couple of 737-9MAXs are already assembled and undergoing certification flight testing, so a little late to cancel. The -9 Max gives airlines like UA a larger than -8 option before the -10 is available (and with plenty of identically sized -900ERs in the fleet for years to come it is not like the -9's size will be an inconvenience in the future for UA). Its future after the -10 is available is completely dead though. It will just be one of those planes with a short life that we will look at with novelty in the future.

TranscendZac wrote:

Boeing should cancel the -9Max and simply offer the -7/-8/-10 models. The -9 probably has zero missions where it makes sense over a -10. With the new gear upgrades and uprated engines, the -10Max ought to actually be a decent bird. I’m sure it will rack up several hundred or more orders easily.

This has been hashed out in so many threads, but Boeing isn't going to cancel the -9 considering the fact that its already been built. The costs are sunk.

Not surprising at all, but what is now is how few 737-8s they have on the list now compared to before and how they plan is to have the 737-7, the least economical model, be the largest sub fleet of 737 MAX.

SuperTwin wrote:

Not surpised. The MAX9 sounds like a comparative dog alongside the 321neo.

Is there a consistent scenario where the MAX9 would outperform the MAX10 and warrant it to be picked over the MAX10?... Availability issues aside.

I will give you three scenarios where the 737-9 might do better than the 737-10:

1. On the runway. It’s likely both will be equally limited to how much they can rotate before becoming a taildragger so I would think the lighter/smaller airframe would win here with all else being equal or all gains performance on the 737-10 being offset by the increased wieght. I don’t know enough about the 737-10 though to be sure of this one.

2. Flying them empty. The 737-9 is lighter weight and smaller than the 737-10 so it would naturally use less fuel. Come PIPs however this may not be the case anymore.

3. Fill both up to the exact same load. The 737-10 would be heavier and burn more fuel than the 737-9 to move the same people.

Of course none of these scenarios really apply to the vast majority of operators which is why the 737-9 has become irrelevant.

They also lose six NG frames next year to Swoop.. The original 2018 fleet plan called for four Max8 and three Max9 deliveries. Now its seven Max8s. As the Max10 come on line in 2020, I suspect that the 76W will be withdrawn from use and substituted with the Max10. My guess is as the 789 are placed into service in early 2019 you will see the 76W doing more YEG/YYC-HNL/OGG and then eventually replaced by the Max10.

You know what's missing from that order book? The CSeries...

Polot wrote:

TranscendZac wrote:

Boeing should cancel the -9Max and simply offer the -7/-8/-10 models. The -9 probably has zero missions where it makes sense over a -10. With the new gear upgrades and updated engines, the -10Max ought to be a decent bird. I’m sure it will rack up several hundred or more orders easily.

The first couple of 737-9MAXs are already assembled and undergoing certification flight testing, so a little late to cancel. The -9 Max gives airlines like UA a larger than -8 option before the -10 is available (and with plenty of identically sized -900ERs in the fleet for years to come it is not like the -9's size will be an inconvenience in the future for UA). Its future after the -10 is available is completely dead though. It will just be one of those planes with a short life that we will look at with novelty in the future.

Good point, and I agree-post -10 introduction the -9 is a no go. It’s a shame that Boeing didn’t realize this pre -9 production. The -800/-900 and -8/-9 are/were too close in size anyway, which why I believe is part of the lack of excitement for the -900/-9. I think the -10Max will be far more successful.

I'm not surprised. After the -10 MAX launch, it is known there will be a poor -9 MAX resale market. In fact, I expect used -9 MAX to trade for less than a -8 MAX. Because of that, any bank or leasing company will impose higher charges, probably equal to the -10 MAX anyway.

Momo1435 wrote:

The number of 737-7 on order has also increased from 20 to 23.

Now that is a surprise!

Lightsaber

767333ER wrote:

1. On the runway. It’s likely both will be equally limited to how much they can rotate before becoming a taildragger so I would think the lighter/smaller airframe would win here with all else being equal or all gains performance on the 737-10 being offset by the increased wieght. I don’t know enough about the 737-10 though to be sure of this one.

2. Flying them empty. The 737-9 is lighter weight and smaller than the 737-10 so it would naturally use less fuel. Come PIPs however this may not be the case anymore.

On point 1, the -10 has the gear moved aft, better flap settings, and a possible thrust bump. With new gear expected to have the -10 higher up during rotation and new software limits, the -10 is expected to take less runway than the -9 on missions up to coast to coast in a 2-class configuration. For missions at the limit of MTOW, I expect to see a cross-over in required runway unless thrust goes up more than I expect for the -10.
http://www.b737.org.uk/737max10.htm

On point 2, unless PIPs fail to go into the -9, less weight and wetted area will mean slightly lower fuel burn for the -9 vs. -10. But as PIPs improve, the difference will shrink.

Lightsaber

cumulushumilis wrote:

They also lose six NG frames next year to Swoop.. The original 2018 fleet plan called for four Max8 and three Max9 deliveries. Now its seven Max8s. As the Max10 come on line in 2020, I suspect that the 76W will be withdrawn from use and substituted with the Max10. My guess is as the 789 are placed into service in early 2019 you will see the 76W doing more YEG/YYC-HNL/OGG and then eventually replaced by the Max10.

The MAX7/8s will take over the Alberta-Hawaii flying, I'm sure the '67s will be opening new long haul routes

Polot and Whiteguy,
Thanks for the corrections. I had forgotten about the earlier MAX cancellations that were tied to the 787 purchases.

cledaybuck wrote:

Momo1435 wrote:

The number of 737-7 on order has also increased from 20 to 23. That is probably more surprising than the switch to the 10. .

I agree with you. Given WS's latest reported load factors, I'm a bit surprised they need the MAX 7 at all. I had expected (and still do) that WS will convert all MAX 7 orders to MAX 8. Unless Boeing is giving them a great deal to keep the MAX 7 order intact.

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

Retaining the small 736 fleet serves 2 purposes: (1) new route development that is too large for the Q400 and not big enough for the 73G/738 and (2) there is zero used market for the 736, so WS may as well keep the aircraft in service another 10 years to retirement (atdb.org shows 8 owned, and 5 leased).

Neil

lightsaber wrote:

On point 1, the -10 has the gear moved aft, better flap settings, and a possible thrust bump. With new gear expected to have the -10 higher up during rotation and new software limits, the -10 is expected to take less runway than the -9 on missions up to coast to coast in a 2-class configuration. For missions at the limit of MTOW, I expect to see a cross-over in required runway unless thrust goes up more than I expect for the -10.
http://www.b737.org.uk/737max10.htm

On point 2, unless PIPs fail to go into the -9, less weight and wetted area will mean slightly lower fuel burn for the -9 vs. -10. But as PIPs improve, the difference will shrink.

Lightsaber

You most likely would know a lot more than me, but from what I’ve seen the new gear will only be longer and only when extended as per their small scale demonstrator model. This brings a few questions to mind. Would this then mean it would always have greater ground clearance when it’s on the ground? How does this affect the lack of overwing exit slides? Will the gear somehow also be moved aft? What sort of software is affected?

The way I understand it the flaps improvements really only apply for landing to attempt to lower landing speeds and better go around performance. They are said to be doing this by increasing the likelyhood that one could used flaps 40 for landing. The said flaps changes sound like they won’t have an effect on the takeoff performance. A thrust bump would be a big help too as long as it’s enough to offset the increased weight. If a thrust bump is doable, I wonder if wee would see similar for the LEAP on the A321.

Really this is just another unsurprising nail in the coffin for the 737-9 and a good move by WS.

Hi Everyone, just a bit of the subject topics but as the venerable 767 has been mentioned how are they performing?
I seem to recall they had regular dispatch problems some time ago. Look forward to any response. Regards 325i

yyz717 wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

Momo1435 wrote:

The number of 737-7 on order has also increased from 20 to 23. That is probably more surprising than the switch to the 10. .

I agree with you. Given WS's latest reported load factors, I'm a bit surprised they need the MAX 7 at all. I had expected (and still do) that WS will convert all MAX 7 orders to MAX 8. Unless Boeing is giving them a great deal to keep the MAX 7 order intact.

CRJ900 wrote:

The table shows that all 13 B736 will stay in the fleet until 2027 - that's impressive. They must have found a route structure they are economical on.

Retaining the small 736 fleet serves 2 purposes: (1) new route development that is too large for the Q400 and not big enough for the 73G/738 and (2) there is zero used market for the 736, so WS may as well keep the aircraft in service another 10 years to retirement (atdb.org shows 8 owned, and 5 leased).

Neil

I think your second comment addresses your first. Perhaps WS wants the -7s for more route development, particularly one the NGs start phasing out.

MAX 10's for Tran Conn routes maybe?