https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 785344001/

"The Air Force is currently 1,500 pilots short of the 20,300 it is mandated to have." US President Trump signed an executive order for the USAF to recall 1,000 retired pilots over the next 3 years to serve. How will the airline industry be impacted? Will the airlines raise pay? Improve working conditions? Both?

**I realize it's tempting to bring politics into this discussion, but please keep this thread strictly focused on the potential airline industry impact. Thanks!**

So 1000 isn't a catastrophic number, but it makes things worse. They are likely all flying at the majors. It will push the pilot problem further up the equipment ladder.

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

I’d like to see that action in paper. It’s pretty difficult legally to recall a retiree involuntarily except in dire war situation. Any that have served out their MSD are not recallable—24 years as an O-4 or 28 as an O-5. Not to mention training, assignment and PCS.

Two issues on training—they’re already trying, the pipeline is only so big and, two, it’s experience levels that are more at issue than just bodies.

GF

Out of the AF Reserve... no problem. Fully retired... problem.

WPvsMW wrote:

Out of the AF Reserve... no problem. Fully retired... problem.

Won’t be pretty! Imagine being activated and then PCS’d to an AD wing across the country.

GF

An actual war vs. the latest Trump tweet... very different. I predict mass resignations of pilots from AF Reserve and state Air National Guard units to avoid activation. Exactly that happened among physicians in Army Reserve and state National Guard units during the "nation building" era of Iraq and Afghanistan.

WPvsMW wrote:

An actual war vs. the latest Trump tweet... very different. I predict mass resignations of pilots from AF Reserve and state Air National Guard units to avoid activation. Exactly that happened among physicians in Army Reserve and state National Guard units during the "nation building" era of Iraq and Afghanistan.

My interpretation is this allows pulling a thousand out if the ready reserve. When was the last time this was applied? Vietnam? I'm serious, I cannot recall the last time the ceiling of 25 was broken


Lightsaber

They can recall me—I’d love to fly the new C-5M. Pity I’m too old

GF

Going to need the pilots for when the NK Conflict kicks off.

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

We are. The problem is we can’t train new pilots fast enough. And pilots are separating at the end of their 10 year commitment to go to airlines instead of staying in for a career.

I don't think Czar Trump can force fully retired pilots into armed services without either a Congress approval or a draft.

dbo861 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

We are. The problem is we can’t train new pilots fast enough. And pilots are separating at the end of their 10 year commitment to go to airlines instead of staying in for a career.

That is the real problem, retention. The services need to sweeten the pot so these pilots have a reason to stay.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I don't think Czar Trump can force fully retired pilots into armed services without either a Congress approval or a draft.

Technically those in the US military aren't retired until they are 60 years old, before that they are in the Retired Reserve. Activating personnel from the Retired Reserve was done under Bush and Obama, just not in as large of numbers. Unfortunately for those recalled they won't be going into a cockpit as the Air Force has already announced they will be doing staff jobs which require a rated pilot and that allows current pilots to remain in the cockpit.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

They can recall me—I’d love to fly the new C-5M. Pity I’m too old

GF

They can start opening pilot slots, I'd sign up in a heart beat (in fact I plan on doing so). I'd love to fly the C5!

enilria wrote:

So 1000 isn't a catastrophic number, but it makes things worse. They are likely all flying at the majors. It will push the pilot problem further up the equipment ladder.

Keep in mind: there is no pilot shortage at the major level. Only at the regionals.

I knew a lot of cargo pilots who were ex AF, so maybe could be an impact on them

I would assume these would be AF inactive reserve pilots who could be subject to recall ?

Dalmd88 wrote:

That is the real problem, retention. The services need to sweeten the pot so these pilots have a reason to stay.

But they can't sweeten the pot enough. There is no way too. While they can probably sway a few pilots who look only at pay for the next few years out of the service, and don't have the right connections or time in craft. But the truth is commercial pilots get paid a lot of money, and every year one puts off moving there is a year delayed in more money and more seniority. So $100,000 in the USAF is a lot of money, and they are now offering retention bonuses of up to $455,000.00 over 13 years ($35,000 extra each year for 13 years of additional service).

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your ... er-pilots/

The problem is after 13 years, depending on a pilots career path in an airline, they could be earning near that each year in that same time frame. And they would have decent seniority and more control over their schedule. And then leaving the AF then means they get to look forward to years of low pay and low seniority and there is no way to recover that.

Tugg

I wish they'd raise the age for going to OCS! They raised the age for joining at the beginning of the year which put me in the eligible age group. I go to MEPS on the 29th.
I would LOVE to be a pilot.

I don't get it, how would the Air Force compel unwilling people to join up? Also how motivated and effective will a bunch of conscripts be against a determined enemy? Won't they just be cannon fodder??

Adipocere wrote:

Also how motivated and effective will a bunch of conscripts be against a determined enemy? Won't they just be cannon fodder??

They aren't brought back as flying pilots so they won't be up against "a determined enemy", as noted above they would fulfill support (desk likely) positions that require pilot skill and knowledge. That way the active flying pilots are not impacted.

Tugg

[twoid][/twoid]

dbo861 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

We are. The problem is we can’t train new pilots fast enough. And pilots are separating at the end of their 10 year commitment to go to airlines instead of staying in for a career.

So we have to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes and you just “can’t train them fast enough”. Pay them above airline wage and maybe they will stay? That’s gotta be cheaper than training new ones.

[twoid][/twoid]

dbo861 wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

We are. The problem is we can’t train new pilots fast enough. And pilots are separating at the end of their 10 year commitment to go to airlines instead of staying in for a career.

So we have to pay hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes and you just “can’t train them fast enough”. Pay them above airline wage and maybe they will stay? That’s gotta be cheaper than training new ones.

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

what facts is your comment based on?

Adipocere wrote:

I don't get it, how would the Air Force compel unwilling people to join up? Also how motivated and effective will a bunch of conscripts be against a determined enemy? Won't they just be cannon fodder??

As determined as an enemy can be if they have no air force the pilot's feelings do not matter. You press buttons at the required time and go back to base.

wedgetail737 wrote:

I don't think Czar Trump can force fully retired pilots into armed services without either a Congress approval or a draft.

The National Emergencies Act gives the President that power, pursuant to the state of emergency declared Sept. 14, 2001, and continued every year since then by the President in office.

b747400erf wrote:

32andBelow wrote:

The real question is why isn't the air force training new pilots? People would sign up in droves to become pilots paid for by the government.

what facts is your comment based on?

All my friends who refuse to join the Air Force because they won’t guarentee them a pilot slot. So they either join the marines or just start working on their ratings themselves. Flying a plane isn’t rocket science plenty of people would do it if given the chance.

Assuming you go into flight training right out of college, around age 22, and serve 25 years before retiring, a pilot would be approaching 50. A little old to rehire, isnt it?

And how much flying does a military pilot actually do after ten plus years? Isn't it mostly office duty by then, with just enough flying to stay current? If so, no wonder pilots leave for the airlines.

737tanker wrote:

Technically those in the US military aren't retired until they are 60 years old, before that they are in the Retired Reserve. Activating personnel from the Retired Reserve was done under Bush and Obama, just not in as large of numbers. Unfortunately for those recalled they won't be going into a cockpit as the Air Force has already announced they will be doing staff jobs which require a rated pilot and that allows current pilots to remain in the cockpit.

Actually, technically you are recallable until death - if you have specialized knowledge.

When the Battleships were brought out of mothballs in the late 1980's and 1990's the US Navy activated a number of WW II and Korean War Gunners Mates who had operated and maintained the 18" guns. I think most of them were in their mid 60's to mid 70's. The "old geezers" served an additional 2-4 years training the younger generation on those guns.

There used to be some interesting film clips around on the old guys working the guns in the 1990's.

Have a great day,

32andBelow wrote:

All my friends who refuse to join the Air Force because they won’t guarentee them a pilot slot. So they either join the marines or just start working on their ratings themselves. Flying a plane isn’t rocket science plenty of people would do it if given the chance.

That was pretty much where I was at. I thought about joining the Air Force when I graduated college, but I decided not to gamble years of my life without a guaranteed shot at flying. I went on to get a contract job with the Army, then traveled for two years, then moved to the Pacific Northwest and landed a job in my field. I never flew a plane, but good times otherwise.

TWA772LR wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

They can recall me—I’d love to fly the new C-5M. Pity I’m too old

GF

They can start opening pilot slots, I'd sign up in a heart beat (in fact I plan on doing so). I'd love to fly the C5!

From what I read on a bigly pilot forum, these 1000 pilots will be sent to take up non-flying positions, releasing active pilots from desktop work to do more flying. Nasty way to have your commercial career sidetracked for up to 3 years if true. That has got to be the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever.

VSMUT wrote:

From what I read on a bigly pilot forum, these 1000 pilots will be sent to take up non-flying positions, releasing active pilots from desktop work to do more flying. Nasty way to have your commercial career sidetracked for up to 3 years if true. That has got to be the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever.

What exactly does happen to any pilot that is recalled to the USAF? I assume that it is required to keep their position open? Does seniority and everything else stay where it was or...? Is there insurance for such a thing? I assume the pay would be AF pay but at what rate is it calculated?

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

From what I read on a bigly pilot forum, these 1000 pilots will be sent to take up non-flying positions, releasing active pilots from desktop work to do more flying. Nasty way to have your commercial career sidetracked for up to 3 years if true. That has got to be the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever.

What exactly does happen to any pilot that is recalled to the USAF? I assume that it is required to keep their position open? Does seniority and everything else stay where it was or...? Is there insurance for such a thing? I assume the pay would be AF pay but at what rate is it calculated?

Tugg

I have no idea, but keeping the position open might be a bit troublesome. The aircraft that a pilot flew may have been phased out, numbers slashed or significantly upgraded. A pilot would need to be retrained after a certain period, for a commercial pilot in Europe you would be looking at renewing the type-rating at least once per year, or else it will expire. There is just no guarantee that you can place him/her in a flying position with less than several years of training.
I wonder how this will affect pilots who went abroad to airlines in Asia or such. An airline such as Emirates doesn't have any obligations to release ex-USAF pilots on anything less than contractual terms.

As of yesterday, USAF reports no plans to recall pilots:

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017 ... rtage.html

"Ann Stefanek, the chief of Air Force media operations, said Sunday the added power provided by Trump is appreciated but the service does not "currently intend to recall retired pilots."

dangle wrote:

As of yesterday, USAF reports no plans to recall pilots:

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017 ... rtage.html

"Ann Stefanek, the chief of Air Force media operations, said Sunday the added power provided by Trump is appreciated but the service does not "currently intend to recall retired pilots."

There is some disconnect somewhere in the USAF leadership.Someone pushed this request up. Someone felt it was urgent enough to alert the President so some action could have been taken.

mernest wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

I don't think Czar Trump can force fully retired pilots into armed services without either a Congress approval or a draft.

The National Emergencies Act gives the President that power, pursuant to the state of emergency declared Sept. 14, 2001, and continued every year since then by the President in office.

Seriously, that is still inforce? Wow.

Tugger wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

From what I read on a bigly pilot forum, these 1000 pilots will be sent to take up non-flying positions, releasing active pilots from desktop work to do more flying. Nasty way to have your commercial career sidetracked for up to 3 years if true. That has got to be the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals, maybe ever.

What exactly does happen to any pilot that is recalled to the USAF? I assume that it is required to keep their position open? Does seniority and everything else stay where it was or...? Is there insurance for such a thing? I assume the pay would be AF pay but at what rate is it calculated?

Tugg

Any airline pilot that Has been recalled to Active Duty, either from the Guard/Reserves or what this thread is about, has job protection guaranteed by Federal Law. Basically their seniority continues to grow as if they never left the airline. I've seen pilots that were gone for as little as 2 months and others that were gone for 5 years. When the get released from Active Duty they have a certain number of days, based on how long they were activated, to notify their employer that they are returning to work. The airline has to train and then requalify them on their old equipment, or whatever equipment that their seniority allows them to hold.
As to their pay when they are activated they are paid by the Military Branch that they are in and it is based on their military rank and how long they've been in the military.

They prefer to recall pilots (who are trained but already have a career of their one) rather than train new ones (who could make a career WITH the Air Force).

I've missed the cutoff to join and waivers are not being granted for those who are just barely over the age limit for training.