Future CSeries Orders (Post Airbus-Bombardier deal)

Fixinthe757 · Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:50 am

Andre3K wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
A local tv station here in Mobile reported yesterday that the C-series will be manufactured here alongside the 320 FAL. Excellent news!

I suppose.

But since I work in a Lockheed union shop with starting wages of over $18/hr and top pay of almost $33/hr just for for my job classification (which doesn't include inspectors top pay there is over $40 hour)
it is kind of disappointing/disheartening that the starting pay at Mobile from what I was able to find online is about $16.50 with a top out of 24/hr. Say what you want about unions but which one would you choose?

I would personally choose non union. Why? The union gonna pay your salary when everyone decides to go on strike? Nope. Cross the line so you can get a paycheck and youre branded, not to mention taking your life in your hands at those who are beyond greedy. Also I know a number of people that work at Airbus, top out is more then 24. Starting pay may be what you stated, but you rise quickly. Either way its a plus for Mobile.

mjoelnir · Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:30 am

LockheedBBD wrote:
ytz wrote:

It's not fuel prices that people should be worried about. But carbon taxes (and/or pricing on other emissions) that may really start to penalize less efficient aircraft. For now, fuel taxes are relatively low in aviation and fuel prices are the only indicator. That's not guaranteed for the life of any airframe purchased today.

That's not going to be important in the US. The current administration believes that climate change is a sham. And based on current trends, the current administration is likely to be re-elected for another four years when the time comes to vote again.

What is important to the current administration and what is important to the USA, might not be the same thing.

art · Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:01 pm

Assuming a deal between Airbus and Bombardier is signed, when will Airbus start delivering C Series aircraft from a US assembly plant?

If other US airlines wanted to order C Series, would the delay in having to wait for delivery from a US plant present a significant problem for many of them?

Jayafe · Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:24 pm

ro318 wrote:
LCY has only two stands capable of handling the CS100

Even after the announced approved expansion?

rampboy77 · Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:13 pm

ytz wrote:
Polot wrote:
rampboy77 wrote:
This could be history repeating itself. It's not a perfect comparison, but it is almost like Delta/Comair getting their first CRJ-200. Once it is flying, everyone will see the brilliance and get on the bandwagon and start ordering. The CS100/300 segment will be the new darling of the industry.

The CRJ200 opened up a whole brand new segment to the majors. The CSeries is a great aircraft, but it is not breaking grounds on a segment, it is just more efficient than previous options.

Air Canada and Delta beg to differ. Both have said the economics of this airplane allow new options. What would you do if you could run a 100-140 seater at almost A320NEO CASM for 3000 miles? That's the question. I am sure there are some high value low volume markets that would benefit from more direct service.

The pay off for Delta's smaller hubs/focus cities could be substantial. SEA/LAX/BOS/NYC/RDU/AUS will be able to reach hundreds of routes where the 319 is too much airplane, and the 717 doesn't have the range. It will also allow them to add frequency on their existing long/thin routes. If/when LGA drops the perimeter rule the C-series could print money for years until the market adapts.

frmrCapCadet · Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:31 pm

JulietteBravo wrote:
The aspect of fuel price has not much been discusses here. As soon as fuel price goes up - the CS is a win.

China alone plans on a million EV (automobiles) next year and 5 million in just a few years. Oil prices are very sensitive to demand reductions. Most observers suspect oil is in trouble. Note: it won't happen suddenly, just steadily and already.

ro318 · Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:39 pm

Jayafe wrote:
ro318 wrote:
LCY has only two stands capable of handling the CS100

Even after the announced approved expansion?

The expansion will bring it up to 7 stands so still too few imo

LockheedBBD · Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:55 pm

art wrote:
Assuming a deal between Airbus and Bombardier is signed, when will Airbus start delivering C Series aircraft from a US assembly plant?

If other US airlines wanted to order C Series, would the delay in having to wait for delivery from a US plant present a significant problem for many of them?

Probably 2020. There will be a significant delay.

ytz · Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:09 pm

art wrote:
Assuming a deal between Airbus and Bombardier is signed, when will Airbus start delivering C Series aircraft from a US assembly plant?

If other US airlines wanted to order C Series, would the delay in having to wait for delivery from a US plant present a significant problem for many of them?

Assuming they close late next year, I would guess by mid 2020. Bombardier already has tooling for a second assembly line in Montreal.

If the ITC case fails, I guess they take longer. Maybe 2021.

aerolimani · Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:06 pm

ytz wrote:
Brixerl wrote:
Has anybody already heard about this rumour popping up in canada couple of hours ago?

"It is also understood that the slow-selling C-Series, which has been rescued by a deal with Airbus this week after being caught up in a transatlantic trade row with Boeing and the US government, could be close to nearly tripling orders thanks to a big contract with Qatar Airways."

Bullish as I am, there's exactly zero chance of any airline tripling a 360 frame order book in one shot. Least of all a Gulf Carrier doing it with a lower end narrowbody. That's an outlandish rumour. What the heck would Qatar do with hundreds of 110 and 130 seaters?

The Times UK and fliegerfaust have written about it,but it is all in the most vague of terms.

The actual focus of the article in question is the possibility of the Queen of England (via the UK gov’t) acquiring some CSeries jets to replace the BAe146. Apparently, they want transatlantic capability.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/busi ... -gpl896fcc

http://www.fliegerfaust.com/cseries-clo ... 46707.html

Of course, this is Sylvain Faust, and I don’t think there is anyone out there more bullish on CSeries prospects. On the other hand, he’s been the source of more than one rumour which has turned out to be true.

ytz · Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:46 pm

The Queen absolutely should ride the CSeries. She's the head of state of Canada too. Solidarity with Ireland, Canada and Europe. That's worth the symbolism.

Still think the QR deal is far-fetched. But if that turns out, in one shot, BBD's decision to sell to AB will be validated.

Personally, I still expect the order book to double by the end of next year. I expect a flurry of sales when the deal closes. It's possible we might not see any sales till then. Or we night see airlines try to lock down to get good pricing before the close. Will be interesting to watch.

ytz · Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:25 pm

Just a reminder this is what Bombardier had planned for ramp. Their current order book is full till the end of 2020

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... up-419427/

Not sure, how much any of this changes with this deal. Does their schedule her disrupted because they have to ship tooling to Alabama? Or does BBD build line 3 in Mobile?

Andre3K · Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:00 pm

Fixinthe757 wrote:
Andre3K wrote:
Fixinthe757 wrote:
A local tv station here in Mobile reported yesterday that the C-series will be manufactured here alongside the 320 FAL. Excellent news!

I suppose.

But since I work in a Lockheed union shop with starting wages of over $18/hr and top pay of almost $33/hr just for for my job classification (which doesn't include inspectors top pay there is over $40 hour)
it is kind of disappointing/disheartening that the starting pay at Mobile from what I was able to find online is about $16.50 with a top out of 24/hr. Say what you want about unions but which one would you choose?

I would personally choose non union. Why? The union gonna pay your salary when everyone decides to go on strike? Nope. Cross the line so you can get a paycheck and youre branded, not to mention taking your life in your hands at those who are beyond greedy. Also I know a number of people that work at Airbus, top out is more then 24. Starting pay may be what you stated, but you rise quickly. Either way its a plus for Mobile.

Strikes are exceedingly rare in the USA, as they never result in what the strike was for in the first place (Like when Fort Worth went on strike for 10 weeks and got nothing, or maybe even a worse deal than originally offered).

Doesn't matter how you try to floss it up, union shops pay more and have better work environments, at least when comparing Boeing in Charleston, SC to Lockheed Marietta (I know people who went up there to give it a go an seriously regretted it).

And you wanna talk beyond greedy?

My company already took HMO health insurance away from the salaried employees and new hire hourly employees and next year the salaried employees are getting an even bigger shaft when LM Healthworks turns into something much worse where the deductible can reach $19,000 for a family of 4.

Meanwhile they are posting historical profits.

What would they do to us hourly employees who actually need health insurance from working in this toxic environment if there was no union here. Even with what I make I could not afford a $19,000 deductible, could you?

TranscendZac · Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:25 pm

This is all premature talk of course, but does the acquisition of the C-Series motivate Airbus to do an A320.5 type stretch? Increase length to 40m? I’m sure most any airline with an A320 on order wouldn’t be mad about 3 extra rows of pax for little extra cost in weight and fuel burn. That still leave nearly 5m between an A320 and A321 plus Airbus can potentially offer a stretched larger winged A322 to fight the MOM? They could offer the CS500 down the line, and have 100-160 seats covered by an optimized airframe in the C-Series, and 175-250 by the larger A32X series. That’s a larger market to cover meaning lots of business.

ytz · Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:22 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
This is all premature talk of course, but does the acquisition of the C-Series motivate Airbus to do an A320.5 type stretch? Increase length to 40m? I’m sure most any airline with an A320 on order wouldn’t be mad about 3 extra rows of pax for little extra cost in weight and fuel burn. That still leave nearly 5m between an A320 and A321 plus Airbus can potentially offer a stretched larger winged A322 to fight the MOM? They could offer the CS500 down the line, and have 100-160 seats covered by an optimized airframe in the C-Series, and 175-250 by the larger A32X series. That’s a larger market to cover meaning lots of business.

That is exactly what they are going to do. And they are going to use Bombardier's Northern Ireland plant to build carbon fibre wings for the stretched 320s and 321s. That's the only plant making carbon fibre wings for narrowbodies anywhere.

flyingphil · Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:24 pm

Opinion: The CS100 Could Be The Future for British Airways’ London City to New York Service
https://airlinegeeks.com/2017/07/05/opi ... k-service/

Interesting article .. lots of maybes..

Odessy Airlines apparently has 10 C-Series on order to operate from LCY.. No sign that this is still happening or if the airline will ever start.

The LCY expansion plans were approved by our new Mayor so there will be some more ramp space soon..

ytz · Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:44 pm

As others have said, IAG says the CSeries is too much airplane from them. But maybe this changes now that Airbus owns the product. Maybe the offers change with AB in the mix. Maybe they don't. We'll see.

As for the LCY fleet, I can't see Cityflyer switching fleets so early. Maybe in about 5-10 years....

Devilfish · Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:54 am

aerolimani wrote:
The actual focus of the article in question is the possibility of the Queen of England (via the UK gov’t) acquiring some CSeries jets to replace the BAe146. Apparently, they want transatlantic capability.

They'll have to expedite the process to ensure HM gets to use it. :old:

aerolimani · Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:00 am

Devilfish wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
The actual focus of the article in question is the possibility of the Queen of England (via the UK gov’t) acquiring some CSeries jets to replace the BAe146. Apparently, they want transatlantic capability.

They'll have to expedite the process to ensure HM gets to use it.

I dunno. She might just outlive Charles. :silly:

flyingclrs727 · Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:29 am

aerolimani wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
The actual focus of the article in question is the possibility of the Queen of England (via the UK gov’t) acquiring some CSeries jets to replace the BAe146. Apparently, they want transatlantic capability.

They'll have to expedite the process to ensure HM gets to use it.

I dunno. She might just outlive Charles.

Well her mother lived to be 101.

ytz · Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:37 am

I sincerely hope she gets to fly the CSeries. Can't think of a better simple of the Commonwealth in aviation today than Her Majesty flying a Canadian designed and assembled airplane using Northern Irish wings.

Hopefully our own PM also gets in to replace the current Challengers. They're getting long in the tooth too. And have limited capability.

Andy33 · Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:21 am

frigatebird wrote:
Flyingabout wrote:
tysmith95 wrote:
EasyJet is the largest A319 operator in the world. They could use the CS300 to replace the A319 in the future.

Given that EasyJet is moving away from the 150 seat market with their new orders for the A320/1Neo, it wouldn't appear likely. That said, the CSeries is now a contender with any Airbus operator, with far lower risks than previously attainable, given that long term maintenance and project support is now guaranteed, with Airbus underlining any agreements. I'd put money on IAG, if they could install container cargo bins on the CSeries.

Easyjet was very much interested in the CS300, until Airbus reportedly offered the A320neo for the same price as Bombardier offered the CS300. Would this RFP be in place today, I'm pretty sure Airbus would have offered both CS300 and A320neo, albeit with a higher price for the A320neo. Not sure how many options/purchase rights Easyjet still has on the neo, but if they haven't any left I could see renewed interest for the CS300.

IAG surely must be interested in the CS300 too, as most other large A319 operators will be.

easyJet has around 130 A320neo and 30 A321neo on firm order, with 136 A320/321neo options. They are steadily withdrawing A319s as A320s arrive, and while at some point they might need more A319-sized planes, upgauging seems to be their plan for now.
IAG has 44 A319s at BA, 15 at Iberia, 5 at Vueling. Aer Lingus have already replaced all theirs, BA starts replacing theirs with A320neos from spring 2018 onwards. Really only Vueling absolutely has to have an A319 sized plane because nothing bigger in their fleet can use FLR, otherwise they're an A320 airline. There's plenty of scope for shifting A319s around within IAG to keep Vueling supplied for a long time to come, and upgauging seems the corporate policy otherwise.
Not to rule out CS300s, but these decisions were taken some time ago, contracts are in place, and Airbus will be starting on the BA A320 order any day now.

VSMUT · Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:38 am

I think the LH group makes good sense.

Lufthansa, Brussels Airlines and Austrian have a combined fleet of 60 A319s, for which the CS300 would be pretty well suited as a replacement.
The CS100 could also eventually replace the 78 E-jets and CRJs of Dolomiti, Austrian and Cityline. I think Eurowings will eventually focus on the A320.

I think the CS500 could become pretty popular among holiday charter airlines as an A320 and 737-800 replacement. These airlines don't carry much cargo, and the C-Series has the range to reach the Canary Islands from Scandinavia if needed. The CS300 could also replace A319s and 737-700s with smaller charter operators, such as JetTime in Denmark.

TAROM could be a surprising new customer. They currently operate the A318, 737-300, 737-700 and 737-800.

Air France alone has somewhere between 50 and 60 A318s and A319s that could be replaced by the C-series. KLM has another 18 737-700s. Throw in the HOP! and Cityhopper fleets of E-190s and CRJ-1000s, and we would be looking at over 120 aircraft. Granted, the E-jets and CRJs are pretty new, but deliveries of so many aircraft could be stretched out long enough for the E-jets and CRJs to reach the retirement age.

wezgulf3 · Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:19 am

As much as I would love to see a CSeries in Qatar colours, the fact they can send a handful of A320’s to the UK for weeks at a time would suggest they don’t need the capacity??

egnr · Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:10 pm

ytz wrote:
TranscendZac wrote:
That's the only plant making carbon fibre wings for narrowbodies anywhere.

The MC-21 also has composite wings, produced using a process that does not require the use of an autoclave.
http://www.drycomposites.com/aerocomposit-chooses-innovative-solutions-to-build-ms-21-composite-wings/

"Bombardier’s Belfast plant builds the CSeries wingbox with resin infusion of dry fibers but it then cure in a classical autoclave. The MC-21 wingbox is realized by a composites manufacturing company in the United Aircraft group, AeroComposit. It’s a sister company to the Irkut unit which developed MC-21. AeroComposites has worked on the Out-Of-Autoclave wingbox process since 2009"

"It’s a bit ironic that the most advanced technology of all the listed aircraft projects should come from the Russian single aisle project. Out-Of-Autoclave resin infusion is the way ahead for low cost CFRP production."

https://leehamnews.com/2016/01/29/bjorns-corner-exciting-2016/#more-18535

thumper76 · Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:29 pm

egnr wrote:
ytz wrote:
TranscendZac wrote:
That's the only plant making carbon fibre wings for narrowbodies anywhere.

The MC-21 also has composite wings, produced using a process that does not require the use of an autoclave.
http://www.drycomposites.com/aerocomposit-chooses-innovative-solutions-to-build-ms-21-composite-wings/

"Bombardier’s Belfast plant builds the CSeries wingbox with resin infusion of dry fibers but it then cure in a classical autoclave. The MC-21 wingbox is realized by a composites manufacturing company in the United Aircraft group, AeroComposit. It’s a sister company to the Irkut unit which developed MC-21. AeroComposites has worked on the Out-Of-Autoclave wingbox process since 2009"

"It’s a bit ironic that the most advanced technology of all the listed aircraft projects should come from the Russian single aisle project. Out-Of-Autoclave resin infusion is the way ahead for low cost CFRP production."

https://leehamnews.com/2016/01/29/bjorns-corner-exciting-2016/#more-18535

I hope they got it right, if not all the fibers bind evenly things could get disastrous. Good job if they got it right.

thumper76 · Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:52 am

air Canada says increased demand could prompt more airplane orders. Oct 25 2017
mentioned aircraft were the max8 and the cseries.

earlier in September Air canada announced publicly that they intend to in the future use rouge to compete against the ulcc's after jetlines announced startup in 2018. This plan to use rouge (barely be able to call a lcc) to complete against a ulcc has intrigued me. Rouge is not set up to compete against ulcc's= major loss leader=? Would Air Canada be able to best compete against ulcc's with rouge using cs300 (less seats but more frequencies) to match all ulcc's markets and still make a profit with rouges model?

with airbus shutting down the a319, airbus still might want to get their hands on some low hour a319 airframes for future package deals. (air Canada has some lightly used a319's.. Trade?)

in Air Canada's announcement about competing with the new ulcc's, they mentioned they would let ulcc's get up and running before starting to compete in the market leading me to believe starting late 2018-2019. I believe air Canada is receiving the cs300 at that time!

If this is so... Flying within Canada and Canada to the US just got awesome!!!

thumper76 · Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:16 pm

Another thought.
If Air Canada rouge fly's the cseries on routes to the US at ulcc's seat prices and does well, would that not entice more US based airlines to push the US government to allow the cseries into the US? This could have been in the works for some time. Everyone would benefit from the passengers up, well maybe not Boeing

Revelation · Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:29 pm

ytz wrote:
art wrote:
IranianMan123 wrote:
possibly, but unlikely since they have already ordered the A320NEO and 737MAX series. Could see other Iranian airlines ordering the Cseries though.

Given the anti-Iran noises coming from the Trump administration, are those 737MAX orders really that firm? If they fall through, C Series might be in with a chance.

Not as long as the CSeries has an American made GTF.

FWIW, CS has a Canadian made GTF:

Based on the most advanced principles of lean manufacturing, the Mirabel Aerospace Centre features technologies and processes which result in increased efficiency. The facility will also house two of Canada’s largest aircraft engine test cells.

Pratt & Whitney Canada will assemble and test the PurePower® PW1524G engine for the Bombardier CSeries and the PW800 engine family for the next generation of large business jets at this facility.

Ref: http://www.pwc.ca/en/about/mirabel-aerospace-centre

thumper76 · Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:57 pm

for my previous posts please read
https://globalnews.ca/news/3760138/air- ... -low-cost/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-can ... -1.4370933

Note the global news release was sent out by air Canada as a knee jerk reaction to a possible significant change in Canadian aviation. Air Canada may have said more than they should have.

ytz · Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
ytz wrote:
art wrote:

Given the anti-Iran noises coming from the Trump administration, are those 737MAX orders really that firm? If they fall through, C Series might be in with a chance.

Not as long as the CSeries has an American made GTF.

FWIW, CS has a Canadian made GTF:

Based on the most advanced principles of lean manufacturing, the Mirabel Aerospace Centre features technologies and processes which result in increased efficiency. The facility will also house two of Canada’s largest aircraft engine test cells.

Pratt & Whitney Canada will assemble and test the PurePower® PW1524G engine for the Bombardier CSeries and the PW800 engine family for the next generation of large business jets at this facility.

Ref: http://www.pwc.ca/en/about/mirabel-aerospace-centre

Close relatives who work at PWC. Let's just say that the level of assembly for the GTF at Mirabel is not substantial enough that it could not be very easily replicated in the US.

thumper76 · Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:14 pm

ytz wrote:
Revelation wrote:
ytz wrote:

Not as long as the CSeries has an American made GTF.

FWIW, CS has a Canadian made GTF:

Based on the most advanced principles of lean manufacturing, the Mirabel Aerospace Centre features technologies and processes which result in increased efficiency. The facility will also house two of Canada’s largest aircraft engine test cells.

Pratt & Whitney Canada will assemble and test the PurePower® PW1524G engine for the Bombardier CSeries and the PW800 engine family for the next generation of large business jets at this facility.

Ref: http://www.pwc.ca/en/about/mirabel-aerospace-centre

Close relatives who work at PWC. Let's just say that the level of assembly for the GTF at Mirabel is not substantial enough that it could not be very easily replicated in the US.

That's good news for Airbus, BBD and the cseries.. Let's hope it makes a difference on the American built side of things (one less thing to tariff).

Revelation · Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:24 pm

ytz wrote:
Close relatives who work at PWC. Let's just say that the level of assembly for the GTF at Mirabel is not substantial enough that it could not be very easily replicated in the US.

Very easily? We're still talking about assembling high tech jet engines, not pallets of wood chips. FAA production certs have to be maintained, etc.

The reason the PW GTFs are being assembled in YMX is that (a) it's cheaper than other PW options and (b) it still needs specialized tools and training to accomplish.

So, just like the US FAL, tariff avoidance leads to unwanted expense, especially given it's being done for deal(s) that we're told were already not profitable for BBD.

As above, I hope the whole tariff thing goes away, but until it does, all these moves to avoid tariffs have impacts.

aerolimani · Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
So, just like the US FAL, tariff avoidance leads to unwanted expense, especially given it's being done for deal(s) that we're told were already not profitable for BBD.

All the talk of avoiding tariffs is being done to increase buyer confidence in the CSeries. Basically, it says there's a plan in place whether they win or lose the tariff battle at the legal level. I don't think it's so much about Delta getting its planes as it is about everyone else seeing that Delta will get its planes.

thumper76 · Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:07 am

Revelation wrote:
ytz wrote:
Close relatives who work at PWC. Let's just say that the level of assembly for the GTF at Mirabel is not substantial enough that it could not be very easily replicated in the US.

Very easily? We're still talking about assembling high tech jet engines, not pallets of wood chips. FAA production certs have to be maintained, etc.

The reason the PW GTFs are being assembled in YMX is that (a) it's cheaper than other PW options and (b) it still needs specialized tools and training to accomplish.

So, just like the US FAL, tariff avoidance leads to unwanted expense, especially given it's being done for deal(s) that we're told were already not profitable for BBD.

As above, I hope the whole tariff thing goes away, but until it does, all these moves to avoid tariffs have impacts.

I fully agree, I hope the tariff does not stand as well. But past decisions made by the US governed DOC lead me to believe that nothing will favour Airbus or BBD at this point. This mess will be dragged on for years till it gets through the WTO.

thumper76 · Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:30 am

The tariff decision was made by ONE nation and one nation alone! One nation can be judge and jury over their own nation. For the tariff decision to hold any merit it must be withheld by the rest of the trading world =WTO. Till the world decision is made (WTO) this decision is a national decision, trade is international. International trade can not be dictated by one nation. If the US decides not to agree with the future world decision or thinks the WTO holds no grounds they are delusional. I hope from the bottom of my heart that that a understanding can be met. I for one do not want to see the US isolate themselves from the rest of the world.

thumper76 · Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:28 am

So back to the thread. Air Canada might be looking for more aircraft dew to market demand. This leads me to believe that aircraft will be acquired. I believe that the reason for the demand is the startup of ulcc's in Canada (mainly because narrow bodies were brought up as target aircraft). Would rouge as a llcc (leisure low cost carrier) be able to compete with ulcc's using cs300's and make a profit?

Jomar777 · Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:50 am

thumper76 wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
I would say that any Airbus Customer is a C-Series Customer - NOT BBD though. Including ME3 customers which are untapped by either the C-Series or E2 programs. It is a fair game now and I am sure Airbus will push for plenty of orders. For the C-Series Project, this is great news. For the E2 Project, same applies in regards to Boeing which will use E2 to contra the C-Series.
What we will see here is amore polarized ,market down the order, similar to what we already have on the medium to large sized aircrafts.
The losers are COMAC, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi, for example.
But I simply do not buy the idea that a CS500 will be brought to life at all since Airbus will not surrender to a JV 50% of the profits it accrues on a successful program which is the A320. Added that the A320 just got a new lease of life with the NEO, until this runs through, and only provided that Airbus leaves this behind, no CS500 will become reality.
What I expect also is that Embraer may be pushed by Boeing to come up with a new Program to provide them the kind of seat allocation that the B737-600NG used to have so that Boeing completes the range with a direct competitor to the CS300 which it does not have presently. Boeing themselves probably will not develop this.
Then we will enter on a basically polarized market shared between A & B (and their minions...).

Airbus said that they were interested in the cseries cockpit for future aircraft. They might be saying that the future of Airbus will have cseries based cockpits. If that is the case the cs500 fits better in a package deal then the 320neo in their next generation. That being said long ways off

Could be - I have to agree with you. But then I wonder if, instead of a CS500, we would have then an A320NEO-2 (or NextGen) with an upgraded cabin in the mould of what the C-Series do have but, then, what about the big USP form Airbus which is the cabin commonality all the way from SH to ULH (A318 to A380)? That would be an interesting question then...

thumper76 · Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:52 am

There are definitely more questions right now than answers. When Airbus took 50.01% of the cseries program they did so knowing about the cominality issue. Normally aircraft types evolve slowly, but with the cseries airbus has the ability to evolve rapidly at minimal expense. In the end I believe they will do whatever it takes to be on the leading edge, because that is where the sales are.

NeBaNi · Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
ytz wrote:
Close relatives who work at PWC. Let's just say that the level of assembly for the GTF at Mirabel is not substantial enough that it could not be very easily replicated in the US.

Very easily? We're still talking about assembling high tech jet engines, not pallets of wood chips. FAA production certs have to be maintained, etc.

The reason the PW GTFs are being assembled in YMX is that (a) it's cheaper than other PW options and (b) it still needs specialized tools and training to accomplish.

So, just like the US FAL, tariff avoidance leads to unwanted expense, especially given it's being done for deal(s) that we're told were already not profitable for BBD.

As above, I hope the whole tariff thing goes away, but until it does, all these moves to avoid tariffs have impacts.

Bit of an outsider to the whole process, but maybe the reason it is cheaper to build engines at Mirabel is because the C-Series FAL is right there, thereby saving on transport costs? Now that there will be a second FAL at Mobile, maybe that part of the cost picture changes. Again, I don't know much about this at all, just some guesswork. :scratchchin:

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