After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

Slug71 wrote:

After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

The deal does not provide BBD any extra cash.

It might be the demise of the Q400 leaving ATR having exclusivity

kitplane01 wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

The deal does not provide BBD any extra cash.

Does not provide extra cash but it does significantly reduce the liabilities so BBD will likely be able to finance the development

afgeneral wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

The deal does not provide BBD any extra cash.

Does not provide extra cash but it does significantly reduce the liabilities so BBD will likely be able to finance the development

You might be right but let's hope BBD actually does this (work on a Q400 replacement). There's no significant debts coming from the C-Series with this deal but also there will no significant cash either since Airbus will pocket 50%. Add to the fact that, after a while, Airbus may actually take the whole project away (can happen very quickly), BBD may disappear just as McDonnell Douglas if it doe snot have another product in range.

The market will not tolerate a strategy which only concentrates on a model which they don't own and which can be forcibly acquired by the holder of 51% of the partnership.

They will have to state their intentions as to where they as an aircraft manufacturing company see themselves in the future expressed as a product road map.

All will be clear very soon and as shareholder that is what I'm waiting to hear to decide what I do with my shares; does the company have a realistic plan for the future.

I am hoping the reduced liability will give them some much needed leverage to keep working on an updated (and stretched?) Q400, as well as keep working on the CRJ lineup.....

A Q400 development might make more sense in the light of US protectionism. That aircraft is less exposed to the US market than the CRJ is.

afgeneral wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

The deal does not provide BBD any extra cash.

Does not provide extra cash but it does significantly reduce the liabilities so BBD will likely be able to finance the development

Not sure where there is a meaningful reduction of liability.

Airbus was given 50.1% of the program and did not accept/acquire any past debts of the program, those are retained by BBD.

The deal requires BBD to fund CS for up to $350M in year 1 and up to $350M across years 2+3 as well as 50% of any monies spent beyond those figures.

From what I read, BBD's financial picture went from distressed to challenged, not to free and clear.

The ATR consortium has been in limbo for some time regarding a 100 seat turboprop. Leonardo just can't seem to get any traction with Airbus on that idea.
Maybe now, the technology inherent in the CS100 along with its fuselage may form the basis for a minimal investment approach with Bombardier.
Take the GE engines from the King Stallion and high mount them on straight wings onto a CS100 fuselage, kind of like a super sized Saab 340.
Good ol' FADEC technology will make prop beta behave just like reverse thrust with the same levers, making common crew qualification quite achievable.
Rewrite the control laws a wee tad, and they'll both feel just the same. Differences training might be needed for Direct Law...

afgeneral wrote:

kitplane01 wrote:

Slug71 wrote:

After the C Series announcement earlier, do you think this also paves the way for a ATR and Q400 replacement?

The deal does not provide BBD any extra cash.

Does not provide extra cash but it does significantly reduce the liabilities so BBD will likely be able to finance the development

This goes along with my train of thought. While no cash was exchanged (and BBD still holds the debt), it takes a lot of pressure off BBD as far as production, sales, and marketing goes. Airbus hasn't done much with ATR and this deal seems like a good opportunity to push a ATR and BBD joint venture to replace the Q400 and ATR series with pretty much no competition.

ATR-72 is a great plane with huge potential. Lots of orders. Q400 has 31 orders left to fill and that's about it. Chances are Q400 will be scrapped to open the market for ATR-72. I can bet any money up to 10 euros that the clause is included in the BBD joint-venture contract.

BubbaYugga wrote:

Take the GE engines from the King Stallion and high mount them on straight wings onto a CS100 fuselage, kind of like a super sized Saab 340.

As discussed in my thread?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1372009

Q1000 or what would probably now be called the ATR150.

This would be developed entirely by Airbus. As it could be sold under the ATR brand no royalty or profits would have to go to Bombardier.

AFAIK, Bombardier only gave rights for the CSeries away. They are still retain their rights to all other products that they produce, including the CSeries and LearJet.

Bombardier not only have to show that they have still got plans and initiative to satisfy investors but they have to show they have an upgrade path for current customers.
The Q400s which are there at the moment will only last so long.
These customers are probably like all other airlines and are going to look for larger planes than the ones they had before.
Previously, Bombardier could steer them toward a CS100 or CS130. They are not going to steer these Customers toward a plane which they will soon no longer own.
Pilots and service personnel trained on a Q400 will enjoy continuity on an enlarged Q400 with 100 or so seats.
Risk averse Customers will like the Devil they know.
Q400 extension seems a no brainer.
They'll retain their existing Customers and with a much lower cost per seat than a regional jet in the 100 seater market will win new business.

I think the C series deal has no implication on the DASH8 Q400 or the ATR in any way, not positive nor negative. The deal is about the C series only.

BBD and Airbus will definitely discuss about the Q400 - even if it's strictly a BBD product.

Well, right off the bat, don't expect heavy discounting on the Q400 or the ATR anymore.

The Q400 maybe the better turboprop platform on some applications (higher elevation airports, shorter airstrips, one engine out ceiling requirements, and on some longer trips), but I agree; as is, it will slowly disappear. Its construction costs are just too high (the 100 mph edge is costly, and I suspect the higher labor costs in Toronto...)

For the competition, I don't see anyone justifying a 100 seats TP business case anytime soon.

ExMilitaryEng wrote:

BBD and Airbus will definitely discuss about the Q400 - even if it's strictly a BBD product.

Well, right off the bat, don't expect heavy discounting on the Q400 or the ATR anymore.

That would raise the eyebrows of competition authorities. Airbus and BBD are not going to put their C-series deal at risk (or Airbus's interest in ATR, although Leonardo probably would not mind that if they could find another partner).

With the C series in the fold though Airbus's already minimal desire for ATR to develop a stretched ATR just went to 0.

I have serious doubts about BBD. I would expect all designs, technology, toolings including any patents from the CSeries program would be transferred over to CSALP. Also I would think Airbus would want to poach all the brains to keep the CSALP going.

For BBD to use any of the CSeries technologies on the CRJ or the Dash programs would mean having to redesign it. That is definitely going to be expensive.

Also EMB now owns the RJ market and has ambitious plans for the TP market as well with a new clean sheet design. I doubt we will see any upgrades to the existing CRJ 7/9/1000 models or the Q.

I have a bad gut feel that once CSALP has been 100% bought out by Airbus in about 7-10 years, BBD's commercial aviation division would eventually be all sold off and closed.

Gulfradio,

The C-Series was the testbed for the G7000, as the joke goes. BBD needs that IP for future airframes and for some current ones.

Agreed, BBD goes back to being number one or two bizjet builder, commercial is gone.

GF

golfradio wrote:

For BBD to use any of the CSeries technologies on the CRJ or the Dash programs would mean having to redesign it. That is definitely going to be expensive.

Also EMB now owns the RJ market and has ambitious plans for the TP market as well with a new clean sheet design. I doubt we will see any upgrades to the existing CRJ 7/9/1000 models or the Q.

I have a bad gut feel that once CSALP has been 100% bought out by Airbus in about 7-10 years, BBD's commercial aviation division would eventually be all sold off and closed.

Considering that Airbus is going to get BBD's IP, wouldn't ATR have access to it as well? It's a rather strange situation where IP is indirectly going to go to BBD's turboprop competitor. With Embraer bursting onto the scenes in the near future, I don't see why BBD/ATR shouldn't work together. New developments to ATR's product line seem to have disappeared (because of Airbus). BBD/ATR coming up with something new would also prevent Airbus's ATR investment from going stale. New designs are expensive, and the economics/risk probably won't work with 3 competitors (BBD/ATR/Embraer) competing for a small pie with expensive development costs.

How about new clean sheets with a common fuselage that can be used for either a turboprop or small regional jet (60-90 seats)?

All the more reason that BBD/ATR should merge?

Either that, or as you said, BBD should just stick to business jets.

stratocruiser wrote:

Both the Q400 and ATR series have almost reached their limit of 'stretchability'

The Q400 has one stretch left in it and that stretch brings it right up to the sweetspot of 96 to 100 seats where only 2 flight attendants are required.
Bombardier would have stretched it almost 10 years ago if they could find Customers at the time.
With no distractions now and a general shift in the market toward bigger is better now is the time to stretch the Q400 while the ATR72 is still selling in good numbers. While the ATR is selling in good numbers Bombardier get some breathing space to sell a profitable number of planes.

Well the Q1000 seems like a good idea.

VSMUT wrote:

A Q400 development might make more sense in the light of US protectionism. That aircraft is less exposed to the US market than the CRJ is.

The Q400 has not been selling due to the customizations that were put in place for the US market, mainly powerful engines to achieve near jet speed on routes to a certain length.
The fact that this created some reliability issues may have something to do with sales.