Samrnpage
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2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:35 am

From 2020 onwards the following should be in the narrowbody market:

As of now with rough maths-

Airbus A320NEO Family - 5202 orders 49% (wiki)
Boeing 737-MAX Family - 3902 orders 36% (wiki)
Comac C919 - 716 orders - 6% (wiki)
Irkut MC-21 - 205 orders 1.9% (wiki)

Other mentions (close to the above that could nick a few orders)
Bombardier Cseries - 360 orders 3.3% (wiki)
Embraer E2 jets - 223 orders 2.1% (wiki)

I know this is hypothetical but I find this interesting and I would love to see A and B's dominance challenged successfully. Personally I think the C919 might actually take a sizeable chunk of the market. The C919 and MC-21 will obviously be cheaper than A and B and if they are workhorses and prove to be a profitable aircraft whose to say an airline wont swap over? And A and B sales in China/asia and russia will all be affected either way.

My questions are -

What do people think, are they excited about the new players in town? Worried? Unsure? I know a lot of people are A and B fans.
Do you think the new players will ever succeed enough to worry A and B ?
Will airlines play manufacturers against each other to get the best deal? - this could be huge in the next decade on the fate of how this market unfolds in my mind.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:47 am

Who is gonna order the C919 outside of China?

It’s gonna be awhile until new players have any bit of success against A and B outside of their respective countries.
 
JBusworth
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:50 am

I can see the Comac C919 doing well locally in China as the local airlines will be forced by their government to choose it over anything from A and B and booming population will want to travel. Outside of China is see a very familiar situation where the A320 and B737 families continue to dominate narrowbides for a long time yet, I cant really see C or E series jets making too much of a dent. Airlines will certainly look to both A and B to try and get the best deal on all new orders with many pervious one manufacturer airliners now ordering from the other side.
 
speedbird52
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:03 am

JBusworth wrote:
I can see the Comac C919 doing well locally in China as the local airlines will be forced by their government to choose it over anything from A and B and booming population will want to travel. Outside of China is see a very familiar situation where the A320 and B737 families continue to dominate narrowbides for a long time yet, I cant really see C or E series jets making too much of a dent. Airlines will certainly look to both A and B to try and get the best deal on all new orders with many pervious one manufacturer airliners now ordering from the other side.

Having a major airline like Delta order 75 for mainline ops says a lot about the C-Series
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Boeing778X
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:42 am

Was just thinking about this earlier.

Clearly, Airbus owns this market, and if Boeing does not act soon, not only will the MAX 9 and 10 be further marginalized by the market leading A321neo, the MAX 7 and 8 may start taking hits by the CSeries, provided BBD launches a CS500, which would be superior to anything on the market now in the size bracket.

IMHO, Boeing needs to begin work on the NSA soon, and maybe even derive it from the MoM, since it seems like the MoM is a given at this point in time.
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adamblang
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:28 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Who is gonna order the C919 outside of China?

I imagine it'll do well (relative the size of the market) in sub-Saharan Africa where the government of China is making massive investments in the local economies. The good trade relations and government-directed foreign investment will probably help tip some scales in favor of Comac.

Second- and third-tier airlines in Southeast Asia occasionally pick up some Chinese frames from the likes of Xian. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few sales in the region.

Second- and third-tier airlines in South America also have a motley fleet of aircraft. Cheap, new C919s would be a good replacement for the likes of the 737-200s, DC-9s, and MD-80s still plying the skies.

It'll be small, niche airlines in the developing world that don't have many photos in the database that make the first outside-China orders.
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Boeing778X
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:38 am

The number of C919s on order is impressive.

What's also impressive is that I have never seen a customer list that comprised mostly of Banks and Leasing Groups, GECAS being the sole non-Chinese customer. It will be interesting to see where they will go.
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ikolkyo
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:44 am

adamblang wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Who is gonna order the C919 outside of China?

I imagine it'll do well (relative the size of the market) in sub-Saharan Africa where the government of China is making massive investments in the local economies. The good trade relations and government-directed foreign investment will probably help tip some scales in favor of Comac.

Second- and third-tier airlines in Southeast Asia occasionally pick up some Chinese frames from the likes of Xian. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few sales in the region.

Second- and third-tier airlines in South America also have a motley fleet of aircraft. Cheap, new C919s would be a good replacement for the likes of the 737-200s, DC-9s, and MD-80s still plying the skies.

It'll be small, niche airlines in the developing world that don't have many photos in the database that make the first outside-China orders.


First I’d like to see an African airline outside of the majors stay aloft for more than a couple of years before we talk about an aircraft like the C919 for them. I don’t think the C919 has a chance in South America, those kind of airlines would probably just pick up used A320s or 737NGs. The only Second and third tier airlines that the C919 has a chance with are the airlines that operate aircraft from Xian as you mentioned. The rest is just too much of a stretch.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:46 am

Boeing778X wrote:
The number of C919s on order is impressive.

What's also impressive is that I have never seen a customer list that comprised mostly of Banks and Leasing Groups, GECAS being the sole non-Chinese customer. It will be interesting to see where they will go.


That’s the problem, other than GECAS it’s all Chinese companies. I really do wonder where they go if they all end up being made.
 
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Boeing778X
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:03 am

ikolkyo wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
The number of C919s on order is impressive.

What's also impressive is that I have never seen a customer list that comprised mostly of Banks and Leasing Groups, GECAS being the sole non-Chinese customer. It will be interesting to see where they will go.


That’s the problem, other than GECAS it’s all Chinese companies. I really do wonder where they go if they all end up being made.


No doubt China is quickly becoming a massive narrowbody aircraft market. Those 700 orders are on top of the MAXs and NEOs on order as well. We're talking up to a couple thousand aircraft here. Is the market that big in China?
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airzona11
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:03 am

Boeing778X wrote:
Was just thinking about this earlier.

Clearly, Airbus owns this market, and if Boeing does not act soon, not only will the MAX 9 and 10 be further marginalized by the market leading A321neo, the MAX 7 and 8 may start taking hits by the CSeries, provided BBD launches a CS500, which would be superior to anything on the market now in the size bracket.

IMHO, Boeing needs to begin work on the NSA soon, and maybe even derive it from the MoM, since it seems like the MoM is a given at this point in time.


It is not that simple. For starters, the 737 is not losing money and is in fact printing money for Boeing. Market share is a trivial number. The MAX 8 is a great plane and is not being marginalized by the A321. The largest A321 operator is close to if not also the largest 738 operator (AA). This is not to take away from the A321 and Boeing has sold a good amount of 7310s that have only been on offer for a few months. Airbus is just as exposed to BBD as Boeing is. There are 2 competitors, A and B. In theory the max market share A can get is probably around 60%. Slot availability and price will swing orders the other way (look at UA with the 7310 vs A321). With thousands of planes on order, neither carrier really has any incentive to distrust their cash cows.

The MoM market is a gap in the market, the 737 family will address the lower end and the MoM the higher end.

BBD500 is paper plane and will attempt to take on the A320/738, the core of the market, different battle. What airlines would order in large numbers? DL ordered the CS300 because there is no direct competitor (the A319s and 737s are heavier/more capable birds that are also shrinks).
 
AC143
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:46 am

The C919 may prove to be successful in the future but 2020+ is still too soon. So far it’s mainly Chinese airlines and companies and if C919 can operate generally safely for the first few years then we could see more companies order it. Also C919 still needs US/EU certification to be truly competitive, so realistically we re looking at more like 2030.
Also I really hope CS500 can compete with A/B but BBD is way too slow with the program.
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RJMAZ
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:37 am

I predict there will be a massive upgauging on the narrowbody network. This trend has been ongoing for decades. The 737 and A320 families have been growing in length and the sales have been increasing for the longer member of the families. This demand will be met by the MOM the first short route optimised widebody.

The 737 has better per seat cost than the A320 family on shorter length due to it's narrower aisle and lighter structure. The A320 wins on the longer range flights due to its ability to be stretched easily with its larer wing and wider aisle allowing for quicker boarding.

The MOM is more likely to steal future A321 sales for this reason.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:42 am

Boeing778X wrote:
The number of C919s on order is impressive.


That figure includes a lot of commitments, actual firm orders are less than that.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
parapente
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:58 am

Size of 'Narrow Body' market in 2020.
Well looking forwards 2020+ it may be a lot bigger than what is being predicted now.
Using the A321 as an example.The exit changes,internal 'slimline' changes and new slimline seats have increased capacity to a max of 240 pax one class.The LR has stretched range to 4.2knm at 206 pax 2 class.
This used to be wide bodied territory (767/310).
So the potential size of the stated market just got a whole lot bigger.Any 322 will increase it still further,Hence Boeings interest in the 797.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:12 am

Both the 737 and A320 families have outstanding reliability around and above 99.5 %. I would like to see a frame like the COMAC 919 reach those numbers, before one believes it will be a success outside of China. It is also the question if they will manage to produce it really cheap. Western engines, western avionics and quite a bit more has to be imported. What will be the real Chinese content in those frames and will they be able to produce that part of the frame cheaper than in the West? Boeing and Airbus have modern lines to mass produce narrow bodies, not easy to undercut on price. In both companies the narrow bodies are the money makers, under pressure the prices can go down without killing those companies.
I do not see that non Chines airlines will take the risk buying the COMAC 919 before that frame has shown a good record in operation. It took tears for Airbus to break into the market.
In regards to the 716 orders for the COMAC 919, I am slightly baffled locking at Wikipedia:
119 firm orders together with 257 MOU, LOI, options, give 716 orders? How many real firm orders are in existences and how many are a lose agreements about buying some if it looks opportune in 10 years time?

Regarding the Irkut MC-21 I have a higher believe in Russian aircraft technology than Chinese. But Russia is a much smaller market by itself. There it is questionable if all those airlines having ordered the frame will still exist when it is time to take the frames and I see frames ordered through and by Ilyushin Finance, are there some double bookings?

As the narrow body market seems to be expanding, it could be that, if the Comac 919 and Irkut MC-21 are doing well, Airbus and Boeing will loose market share without having to cut production.

I do not really count the Embraer E2 and the BBD C series as sales in this market segment, they are smaller narrow bodies, that does of course not exclude that we will see bigger frames from both in the future.

The next question regarding the 919 and MC-21 will be, even if this frames come out good enough to compete with the 737 and A320, how fast can they ramp up production, how many years until we see significant numbers?
Last edited by mjoelnir on Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:24 am

Boeing778X wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Boeing778X wrote:
The number of C919s on order is impressive.

What's also impressive is that I have never seen a customer list that comprised mostly of Banks and Leasing Groups, GECAS being the sole non-Chinese customer. It will be interesting to see where they will go.


That’s the problem, other than GECAS it’s all Chinese companies. I really do wonder where they go if they all end up being made.


No doubt China is quickly becoming a massive narrowbody aircraft market. Those 700 orders are on top of the MAXs and NEOs on order as well. We're talking up to a couple thousand aircraft here. Is the market that big in China?


It seems to be, the largest single market for narrow body aircraft.
 
Samrnpage
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:34 pm

It seems a lot of people are writing off the C919 and MC-21 at the moment which I guess is fair enough. I think the C919 might be better than some people are thinking here though.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:39 pm

Samrnpage wrote:
It seems a lot of people are writing off the C919 and MC-21 at the moment which I guess is fair enough. I think the C919 might be better than some people are thinking here though.


Right now Comac does not have a clear path towards FAA certification, it remains to be seen if it will sell outside China in large numbers.
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pitpirate
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:52 pm

The Chinese are absolutely the best at Reverse Engineering products, I see no exception with the C919 which is basically a A320. The Chinese are certainly to be reckoned with, Boeing & Airbus will have to remain on their proverbial toes.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:19 pm

Samrnpage wrote:
It seems a lot of people are writing off the C919 and MC-21 at the moment which I guess is fair enough. I think the C919 might be better than some people are thinking here though.


Writing it off or being skeptical is a different case. Did a Chinese aircraft ever go through FAA or EASA certification? We see the trouble Mitsubishi is having.with their MRJ.
 
bigjku
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:21 pm

I think narrowbody aircraft become low margin commodities by 2025 unless and until someone changes the basic shaping of the aircraft in the segment. If they all run the same engines they are going to get around the same performance. It will be a price race to the bottom.

It’s the reason in my view why both Boeing and Airbus aren’t going to replace the 737 or A320 anytime soon. No replacements can command enough price premium to earn back the investment.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:07 pm

The problem is that Boeing started the next generation of the 737 entirely too late. Airbus has a hold on the narrowbody market right now, no one can deny that. Boeing focused on the widebody market for the last 20 years, and now their suffering for that. Boeing and Airbus ran opposite of eachother; Boeing started with narrowbody, and is currently focusing on widebody, while Airbus started with widebody, and is currently focusing on narrowbody.
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Samrnpage
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Re: 2020+ Narrowbody Market

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:40 pm

Thing that gets me is the C919 has 6% of the market orders going forward - for a plane that doesnt even have FAA certification as well as others and only done 2 test flights. If they get that to 10-15% thats millions of £££££ going away from Airbus and Boeing.

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