Air Asia may swap entire a330neo order to a350

KarelXWB · Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:57 pm

Polot wrote:
Air Asia boss may not be stupid, but he has also already expressed interest in putting 10Y in A350s.

Although the article is 8 years (!) old, I suspect AirAsia X would be a logical 10-abreast A350 customer.

Stitch · Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:04 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
If they do swap the A330's for the A350's, would they go 10 abreast on the A350's given they currently squeeze 9 abreast on their A330's?

They could and I expect they would.

scbriml · Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:25 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I don't rate Air Asia's chances of being a major player long haul with 9 abreast A330. It's hell in Y class and I think they know it.

If their prices are below those of the competition, people will fly them.

william · Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:48 pm

Polot wrote:
william wrote:
Makes no sense, one does not use a 777 on high cycle domestic routes because the airframe would cycle out quickly. The same can be said for the A350, its design to be a long distance runner not a short distance sprinter.

The 777 has a higher default flight cycle limit with the FAA than the A330 (not sure what the A350's and 787's are). Remember the 772A.

But you get my point right? Makes no sense to treat the A350 like a A321, it was not designed for that. I am impressed Air Asia are using the A330 like that. The A350 is not like the L1011s and DC10s of old.

kiramakora · Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:44 pm

juliuswong wrote:
I would say don't read too much into the news. AirAsia Group is operating in hyperactive environment, more so in LCC market in Asia Pacific. Their plans changed every now and then. Previously they converted remaining A330ceo order to A330neo to reduce capacity increment and capex during the time when D7 were registering loss quarters to quarters. Now that the market is in upswing again, they are looking for more aircraft but this doesn't come overnight, therefore they can either take used aircraft and spend money on re-config or wait for A330neo to arrive in late 2018. For now, they are cutting Australia capacity and swift it to North Asia. If I am not mistaken the additional Australia capacity was added Q1 this year. If they need urgent capacity increment, they would have taken the three ex-UL ntu A359, but they didn't. They might have negotiated with AerCap, but found that the lease might not been favourable. Who knows tbh.

It is worth noting though AirAsia Group has a high debt gearing, tuning to few billion, despite being profitable for many years. And also their massive aircraft order (304 A320neos and 100 A321neos) are not solely for their Group, many will be going to their leasing arm Asia Aviation Capital Pte Ltd, which is scheduled to be sold end of this year if a deal is successfully concluded. The sale will help to pare down the high debt ratio.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... an-market/
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... this-year/

Right on the money. Too bad their smart CFO and CCO left. I hear Ben, the CEO is leaving as well. Is this true?

kiramakora · Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:46 pm

behramjee wrote:
If D7 only has future expansion plans focused on the Austral-Asia region then it does not need the A359 at all.

If D7 wants to make a bit of money on sale-leaseback + lease out its A359s to fellow D7 franchises like Air Asia Thailand who want to launch DMK-EU nonstop then it needs the A359 as the high density A339NEO cannot operate with a full payload out of Bangkok to Europe.

D7's CEO is an astute man who has a very good relationship with Airbus so if he is really hell bent on the A359, in order for him not to pay a dime extra than what he already has negotiated for 66 A330NEOs, he might get a deal for the same value but instead of 66 A330NEOs it will be for 53 A359s.

However from a "commercial perspective", D7 should just stick to the regional WB network plan for which the A339Neo is a better aircraft overall versus the A359. Currently, D7 operates 22 A333s and to be frank it does not require 66 (3 times more than today) even if it chooses to lease out few to other franchises. I would suggest the following:

a) Long term WB fleet plan (till 2025 at least) should be limited to 40 aircraft only covering all the franchise outlets
b) The 26 left over A330NEOs should be exchanged for 52 A321NEOs

Note that once fuel hits more than $65 per barrel, D7's long haul flights become very fragile financially.

D7 is not some basket case airline. It tries to make money! Your logic is not consistent. Where is the armchair logic coming from? Is there a network plan behind things like "40 WB planes and 52 321 NEOS". Where is the depth to your analysis?

flee · Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:28 am

william wrote:
Makes no sense to treat the A350 like a A321, it was not designed for that. I am impressed Air Asia are using the A330 like that. The A350 is not like the L1011s and DC10s of old.

I think we need to consider the fact that the B787/A350 have composite fuselages whereas older aircraft designs are made of aluminium. As such, they should have more cycles in them.

In any case, most of D7's routes are between 5-9 hours at the moment (with the exception of KUL-DPS) - so they are not exactly short flights. The A350 is designed more for 12-14 hour flights and using them on shorter sectors may not be optimum. But we do not know what is Airbus' asking price to D7 - if the price is acceptable to them, then the A350 will make sense!

juliuswong · Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:33 am

kiramakora wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
I would say don't read too much into the news. AirAsia Group is operating in hyperactive environment, more so in LCC market in Asia Pacific. Their plans changed every now and then. Previously they converted remaining A330ceo order to A330neo to reduce capacity increment and capex during the time when D7 were registering loss quarters to quarters. Now that the market is in upswing again, they are looking for more aircraft but this doesn't come overnight, therefore they can either take used aircraft and spend money on re-config or wait for A330neo to arrive in late 2018. For now, they are cutting Australia capacity and swift it to North Asia. If I am not mistaken the additional Australia capacity was added Q1 this year. If they need urgent capacity increment, they would have taken the three ex-UL ntu A359, but they didn't. They might have negotiated with AerCap, but found that the lease might not been favourable. Who knows tbh.

It is worth noting though AirAsia Group has a high debt gearing, tuning to few billion, despite being profitable for many years. And also their massive aircraft order (304 A320neos and 100 A321neos) are not solely for their Group, many will be going to their leasing arm Asia Aviation Capital Pte Ltd, which is scheduled to be sold end of this year if a deal is successfully concluded. The sale will help to pare down the high debt ratio.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... an-market/
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... this-year/

Right on the money. Too bad their smart CFO and CCO left. I hear Ben, the CEO is leaving as well. Is this true?

Yes, Arik De left AirAsia X to be Vice President, Strategy for Grupo Aeroméxico, started his new role this month. He is replaced by Barry Klipp, previously AirAsia Group Head of Corporate Sales. During Arik's
ten months with D7, he did a marvelous job. I haven't hear from grapevine that Cheok (CFO) and Benyamin (CEO) leaving.

Siddar · Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:52 am

flee wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
Something doesn't add up, for example:

AirAsia X will remain focused on routes within four to eight hours’ flying time and would deploy the A350s on those services just as it had aimed to do with the A330s, Fernandes said, adding that a switch wouldn’t indicate a revival of plans to serve Europe.

The A350 is a rather expensive plane for a low cost carrier - let alone 66 aircraft - and using it solely on 4 to 8 hours routes doesn't make much sense. Range cannot be an issue because even the current A330-300 does the job pretty fine.

He mentioned that they are looking to boost capacity.

For this to make sense, the A350-1000 or B787-10 might be the aircraft to achieve the capacity increase and won't be too abused on 4 to 8 hour flights.

It make sense that the airline is running away from orphaned plane. And is looking to change its order to nearest equivalent available from airbus. In order to transfer its deposits.

Siddar · Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:59 am

scbriml wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I don't rate Air Asia's chances of being a major player long haul with 9 abreast A330. It's hell in Y class and I think they know it.

If their prices are below those of the competition, people will fly them.

I keep hearing this line of reasoning. But I have seen no proof of it. Original 330neo list price was several million more then 787 list price. I got the impression from airbus that they weren't willing to discount the 330neo. In order to protect the 350 from inevitable 787 discount that would produce. If airbus has changed it 330neo pricing sense then I have no idea.

Opps you weren't making the point I was commenting on. Sorry.

juliuswong · Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:02 am

Siddar wrote:
scbriml wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I don't rate Air Asia's chances of being a major player long haul with 9 abreast A330. It's hell in Y class and I think they know it.

If their prices are below those of the competition, people will fly them.

I keep hearing this line of reasoning. But I have seen no proof of it.

AirAsia X load have been consistently high due to many on-going promotion and their very good Fly-Thru service. They are very aggressive in marketing their products and services. If you can bear with no food and drinks, and purchase the ticket using their AirAsia BIG points or direct debit option, it offers substantial savings. You may also take up their Value Package (one meal selection, 20kg luggage, pick a seat, insurance protection) which is a good deal too. Depending on the travel seasons or when you book your ticket, you can get easily RM600 from KUL-HND or KUL-CTS all in. These fares are booked a year in advance.

flee · Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:24 am

Siddar wrote:
scbriml wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I don't rate Air Asia's chances of being a major player long haul with 9 abreast A330. It's hell in Y class and I think they know it.

If their prices are below those of the competition, people will fly them.

I keep hearing this line of reasoning. But I have seen no proof of it. Original 330neo list price was several million more then 787 list price. I got the impression from airbus that they weren't willing to discount the 330neo. In order to protect the 350 from inevitable 787 discount that would produce. If airbus has changed it 330neo pricing sense then I have no idea.

Opps you weren't making the point I was commenting on. Sorry.

Although you were off topic, I'd like to clarify the difference between Boeing and Airbus list prices.

1 Airbus - list price is for complete aircraft, including standard fittings and equipment
2 Boeing - list price is for an empty plane. Seats and other fittings are quoted separately

As such, Airbus list prices will appear to be higher. Boeing customers' bills will eventually be a lot higher than the list price due to the extras that are still to be added.

JetBuddy · Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:42 am

I learned from a close source today, that one airline (not AirAsia X) that wants to buy A330-900 had to choose the A350-900 instead. The reason stated was that the creditors would not back the financing on the A330-900 because the 2nd hand value and future of the type was far too uncertain.

Could AirAsia be having similar issues?

RalXWB · Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:33 am

Airbus sold about 1500 CEOs so I find it amusing that the NEOs should have an uncertain future...

Momo1435 · Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:16 am

RalXWB wrote:
Airbus sold about 1500 CEOs so I find it amusing that the NEOs should have an uncertain future...

The market also sees that only a few airlines in the top of the list of largest A330 ceo operators have ordered the neo, while most have either A350 or 787 in operation or on order. Of course people here will come up with countless technicalities arguing that the A330neo, the 787 and the A350 all serve different niches. But it still a fact that all 3 models have a significant overlap and compete for the same orders. You should also consider the production rate increases of the 787 (14pm) and A350 (13 pm), there will be plenty available delivery slots for those 2 aircraft over the next 10 years. With easy financing available for the 787 and the A350 the lower price advantage of the A330neo isn't really an advantage any more. All this financing problem rumors about the neo doesn't come out of thin air.

China will be key, if they commit to the neo there will be no need for this kind of discussion, if they don't it's another story.

Pacific · Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:33 pm

william wrote:
Polot wrote:
william wrote:
Makes no sense, one does not use a 777 on high cycle domestic routes because the airframe would cycle out quickly. The same can be said for the A350, its design to be a long distance runner not a short distance sprinter.

The 777 has a higher default flight cycle limit with the FAA than the A330 (not sure what the A350's and 787's are). Remember the 772A.

But you get my point right? Makes no sense to treat the A350 like a A321, it was not designed for that. I am impressed Air Asia are using the A330 like that. The A350 is not like the L1011s and DC10s of old.

The 777s lasted 20 years on Japanese domestic use before being sent to the desert.

mjoelnir · Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:45 pm

I think there is to much weight put in a comment of Tony Fernandes in this interview. There is some difference between what he says and how it is interpreted in the text.
Yes they mule the future fleet, but I assume that is done all the time. Yes there is speculation about moving to more A350, but it is also mulled changing the rest of A350 to A330. Of course such an airline looks at the 787.
I am pretty sure they stay with the A330. He definitely talks about taking delivery of the first A330-900 in 2018, next year.

Revelation · Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:57 pm

RalXWB wrote:
Airbus sold about 1500 CEOs so I find it amusing that the NEOs should have an uncertain future...

CEO didn't have the A350 or the 787 to contend with right from birth. Personally I'm in the camp that thinks the NEO will be fine, but it is interesting to me to see some deals going by where one would think the NEO should be a contender but the customers don't seem to be interested.

BestWestern · Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:17 pm

Their long haul is in the 4-8hr segment, which is more medium haul.

As Asian airports become increasingly congested, the 330s will be used more and more on the sub 4hr segments.

With DMK essentially full, Thai Air Asia is considering 330s to HKG for example as they don’t have slots to increase capacity using 320s.

NZ321 · Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:28 pm

BestWestern wrote:
Their long haul is in the 4-8hr segment, which is more medium haul.

As Asian airports become increasingly congested, the 330s will be used more and more on the sub 4hr segments.

With DMK essentially full, Thai Air Asia is considering 330s to HKG for example as they don’t have slots to increase capacity using 320s.

Agree with these comments.

OA940 · Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:54 pm

Well RIP A330neo if that happens.

Newbiepilot · Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:50 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I think there is to much weight put in a comment of Tony Fernandes in this interview. There is some difference between what he says and how it is interpreted in the text.
Yes they mule the future fleet, but I assume that is done all the time. Yes there is speculation about moving to more A350, but it is also mulled changing the rest of A350 to A330. Of course such an airline looks at the 787.
I am pretty sure they stay with the A330. He definitely talks about taking delivery of the first A330-900 in 2018, next year.

I don't know how anyone can be sure they'll stay with the A330neo. Tony Fernandes specifically said they only kind of know what they want to do. It sounds like Air Asia X doesn't know what they want to do with all the A330s they have on order. That's not very reassuring.

“Over the last 10 years we’ve been tweaking the model,” the CEO said. “Now that we kind of know what we want to do, we’re looking at the fleet. We’re toying with the A350. If we went A350, we wouldn’t use the A330neo anymore, we’d go all A350.”

I also wouldn't be so sure about them taking delivery of the first A330-900 in 2018

Fernandes said the first jet is due in December 2018, though the date is “slipping” after already being put back amid development issues with Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc’s Trent 7000 engine. The company will send representatives to the model’s first flight, scheduled for Oct. 18 in Toulouse, he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-to-a350s

Slug71 · Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:24 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The market also sees that only a few airlines in the top of the list of largest A330 ceo operators have ordered the neo, while most have either A350 or 787 in operation or on order. Of course people here will come up with countless technicalities arguing that the A330neo, the 787 and the A350 all serve different niches. But it still a fact that all 3 models have a significant overlap and compete for the same orders. You should also consider the production rate increases of the 787 (14pm) and A350 (13 pm), there will be plenty available delivery slots for those 2 aircraft over the next 10 years. With easy financing available for the 787 and the A350 the lower price advantage of the A330neo isn't really an advantage any more. All this financing problem rumors about the neo doesn't come out of thin air.

China will be key, if they commit to the neo there will be no need for this kind of discussion, if they don't it's another story.

You have to take into account that a lot of operators have young/new CEOs in their fleets as a lot of them have already gone through replacement cycles. And many not yet due for replacement. The cycles will come around again. The WB market is rebounding. Sure, there is now the A350 and 787 to contend with and the but I could see the current sales numbers for the NEO double once it goes into production. I don't think anyone is expecting it to do as well as the CEO.

flee · Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:28 am

mjoelnir wrote:
I think there is to much weight put in a comment of Tony Fernandes in this interview. There is some difference between what he says and how it is interpreted in the text.
Yes they mule the future fleet, but I assume that is done all the time. Yes there is speculation about moving to more A350, but it is also mulled changing the rest of A350 to A330. Of course such an airline looks at the 787.
I am pretty sure they stay with the A330. He definitely talks about taking delivery of the first A330-900 in 2018, next year.

Tony Fernandes usually speaks what is on his mind and waits for feedback - it helps his decision making process!

There is logic to what he is saying - Airasia has been well known for keeping their fleet to a single type of aircraft to reap economies of scale and keep costs low. They ordered the 10 A359s before the A330Neo was launched and the general expectation was that they will eventually convert these to the A330Neo for the simple reason that they only wish to operate one aircraft type. However, the Bloomberg piece is now telling us the reverse may be true - that the A330Neo order may be converted to the A350. Why?

I have considered the following reasons:

While we may dismiss what Tony Fernandes has said in the Bloomberg interview, it would appear that D7 are in the very early stages of reconsidering their A330Neo order. If they do convert, it will probably be done in conjunction with the official announcement of another review of their business model.

kiramakora · Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:44 am

juliuswong wrote:
kiramakora wrote:
juliuswong wrote:
I would say don't read too much into the news. AirAsia Group is operating in hyperactive environment, more so in LCC market in Asia Pacific. Their plans changed every now and then.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... an-market/
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... this-year/

Right on the money. Too bad their smart CFO and CCO left. I hear Ben, the CEO is leaving as well. Is this true?

Yes, Arik De left AirAsia X to be Vice President, Strategy for Grupo Aeroméxico, started his new role this month. He is replaced by Barry Klipp, previously AirAsia Group Head of Corporate Sales. During Arik's
ten months with D7, he did a marvelous job. I haven't hear from grapevine that Cheok (CFO) and Benyamin (CEO) leaving.

You seem to know a lot about D7. Can you please find out? The three of them were a very good team. I saw them at an investor event and they were just very seamless. I am curious if Cheok is leaving as she is very smart as well. Yes, I remember, Arik was Head of Commercial for a year, and then Chief Commercial for another year? 10 months? I actually saw him at the WIT conference in Singapore last year, and he was definitely the best speaker. Here is the video. I think he talks about the 330neo and Europe and all that.

https://vimeo.com/192069721

Is Barry Klippi any good? I have never heard of him?

81819 · Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:07 am

With 66 A330NEO's on order and a current A330 fleet of 29 aircraft, I am not too surprised AirAsiaX doesn't yet know what they will be doing with all of those aircraft as yet.

Another consideration could be the pending sale of the leasing business. I'd suggest potential buyers would be evaluating the risk associated with a very narrow band of aircraft largely committed to a single customer. Removing the A330NEO from the equation could well make their leasing business a more attractive investment.

flee · Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:39 am

travelhound wrote:
Another consideration could be the pending sale of the leasing business. I'd suggest potential buyers would be evaluating the risk associated with a very narrow band of aircraft largely committed to a single customer. Removing the A330NEO from the equation could well make their leasing business a more attractive investment.

Airasia X and Airasia are two distinct entities - Asia Aviation Capital's portfolio consists of the A320 fleet that AirAsia short haul operations are flying. The A330 fleet is managed by Airasia X.

mjoelnir · Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:12 pm

flee wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
I think there is to much weight put in a comment of Tony Fernandes in this interview. There is some difference between what he says and how it is interpreted in the text.
Yes they mule the future fleet, but I assume that is done all the time. Yes there is speculation about moving to more A350, but it is also mulled changing the rest of A350 to A330. Of course such an airline looks at the 787.
I am pretty sure they stay with the A330. He definitely talks about taking delivery of the first A330-900 in 2018, next year.

Tony Fernandes usually speaks what is on his mind and waits for feedback - it helps his decision making process!

There is logic to what he is saying - Airasia has been well known for keeping their fleet to a single type of aircraft to reap economies of scale and keep costs low. They ordered the 10 A359s before the A330Neo was launched and the general expectation was that they will eventually convert these to the A330Neo for the simple reason that they only wish to operate one aircraft type. However, the Bloomberg piece is now telling us the reverse may be true - that the A330Neo order may be converted to the A350. Why?

I have considered the following reasons:

Even if they took the A330Neo or the A350 only, they will still be operating the A330Ceo till 2027 (see their fleetplan upthread). So they will operate two aircraft types for the next 10 years. Therefore, having them both will mean 3 aircraft types - might be too complex for Ops.

More alarming - the A330Neo may not have the capabilities that Airbus has promised. That makes D7 nervous! The upcoming A330Neo flight tests may help D7 decide.

If D7 converts the entire A330Neo order to A350s, they may decide to order the derated regional version - this is more suitable to their operations in the Asia Pacific. They can still take some full spec versions of the A359 should they wish to resume non-stop flights to London/Europe

While we may dismiss what Tony Fernandes has said in the Bloomberg interview, it would appear that D7 are in the very early stages of reconsidering their A330Neo order. If they do convert, it will probably be done in conjunction with the official announcement of another review of their business model.

I am not dismissing what Tony Fernandes said in the Bloomberg interview, but he also very clearly stated that they will take delivery of their first A330-900 in 2018. That is a year away. That frame and some more are in pre FAL production, hitting the FAL early next year. I think the comment of perhaps going over to all A350 was pulled out of context and blown up in the written report of the interview. What would be the time frame for moving from A330-900 to 350-900, starting in 2030?

flee · Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:47 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
I am not dismissing what Tony Fernandes said in the Bloomberg interview, but he also very clearly stated that they will take delivery of their first A330-900 in 2018. That is a year away. That frame and some more are in pre FAL production, hitting the FAL early next year. I think the comment of perhaps going over to all A350 was pulled out of context and blown up in the written report of the interview. What would be the time frame for moving from A330-900 to 350-900, starting in 2030?

The A330-900 is a useful aircraft for them - remember, they have three units operating and there might also be Airasia X affiliates planned for Japan/China/India in future. As such, each unit will have its own aircraft requirements.

I think that their main markets in Asia are suffering from airport slot congestion - that is what is driving them towards higher capacity aircraft.

The short haul unit has already ordered 100 A321Neos to ensure that they can increase capacity for their popular destinations. D7 and their Thai/Indonesian counterparts are also faced with this problem - hence the need to look at aircraft that can provide more capacity than the A330-900.

I would think that 2025 is a probable timeframe for the A350 as their A330-300 fleet will have shrunk to about 20 aircraft, with more retirements scheduled in following years.

mjoelnir · Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:58 pm

flee wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
I am not dismissing what Tony Fernandes said in the Bloomberg interview, but he also very clearly stated that they will take delivery of their first A330-900 in 2018. That is a year away. That frame and some more are in pre FAL production, hitting the FAL early next year. I think the comment of perhaps going over to all A350 was pulled out of context and blown up in the written report of the interview. What would be the time frame for moving from A330-900 to 350-900, starting in 2030?

The A330-900 is a useful aircraft for them - remember, they have three units operating and there might also be Airasia X affiliates planned for Japan/China/India in future. As such, each unit will have its own aircraft requirements.

I think that their main markets in Asia are suffering from airport slot congestion - that is what is driving them towards higher capacity aircraft.

The short haul unit has already ordered 100 A321Neos to ensure that they can increase capacity for their popular destinations. D7 and their Thai/Indonesian counterparts are also faced with this problem - hence the need to look at aircraft that can provide more capacity than the A330-900.

I would think that 2025 is a probable timeframe for the A350 as their A330-300 fleet will have shrunk to about 20 aircraft, with more retirements scheduled in following years.

You are trying to move sideways. As it is AirAsia has both A330-900 and A350-900 on order. Tony Fernandes stated in that interview that they will take delivery of their first A330-900 in 2018. Do yo accept that statement?
If they will keep to their orders they will of course take delivery of a A350-900 sometime in the future.
My question to you was when will AirAsia replace their A330-900 with A350-900, in the view of Tony Fernandes statement of taking delivery of A330-900 in 2018.

flee · Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:09 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
You are trying to move sideways. As it is AirAsia has both A330-900 and A350-900 on order. Tony Fernandes stated in that interview that they will take delivery of their first A330-900 in 2018. Do yo accept that statement?
If they will keep to their orders they will of course take delivery of a A350-900 sometime in the future.
My question to you was when will AirAsia replace their A330-900 with A350-900, in the view of Tony Fernandes statement of taking delivery of A330-900 in 2018.

I am looking at his statement that said they will either have the A350 or the A330 Neo but not both. Their philosophy is to have a simple fleet so that it is easy for day to day ops.

Airbus and their lessors have always been very accommodating and they have cancelled some A330Ceo orders at the last minute before. So, it could happen with the A330-900 again. Right now, they are trying to lease 4 to 6 more used A330-300s to make up for their shortage of aircraft. If they decide to go for the A359, they might be able to get some of the delivery slots postponed by other airlines. If not, they can just lease more A330s and wait for their A359s to arrive in 2021.

Having observed Airasia and Tony Fernandes over the years, I would not hold them to statements as they are prone to changes. They are a very flexible and nimble company and they can change things according to business, financial and market conditions. That may explain why you think I am moving sideways - to me, all those situations mentioned in their statements can be possible, or they might change their minds again!

Momo1435 · Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:10 pm

Tony Fernandez did not say the first A339 WILL be delivered in 2018. He said that the 1st one is due in December 2018, but that this date is already slipping because of the known delays.

This only means that if they don't change the order the 1st one will be delivered in early 2019.

flee · Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:13 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
Tony Fernandez did not say the first A339 WILL be delivered in 2018. He said that the 1st one is due in December 2018, but that this date is already slipping because of the known delays.

This only means that if they don't change the order the 1st one will be delivered in early 2019.

Yes, TAP has also mentioned that deliveries will slip further - IIRC, TAP's first A339 will be delivered at least 6 months later than originally anticipated. That will mean Airasia X's deliveries will commence in 2019.

But we also know that Airbus may be able to do another "December Madness" delivery month in 2018! :lol:

Momo1435 · Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:25 pm

It could of course still be December 2018, that's not the point. It could be also be never if they convert the complete order to the A359, that's what mr Fernandez told the journalists.

lightsaber · Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:52 pm

OA940 wrote:
Well RIP A330neo if that happens.

My first thought was 'what is the background on this?' Do we really take this seriously.

What you posted was my second thought. Without AirAsia, the A330NEO program becomes the widebody 717. Both are great planes, but there comes a point were a re-engine just isn't enough due to characteristics inherited from the original design. Widebodies suffer more from fuel burn costs due to mission lengths and there is no way an aluminum wing matches the weight and aerodynamics of CFRP wings. With the A350 and 787, no leasing company is going to offer a profit from day one sale/leaseback. They will demand a substantial down payment to ensure if the plane is returned early, they will still make a profit.

I find it interesting per the last aircraft vales, and lease rates the A333 and 788 were leased for the same rates. But what are the down payment terms? Others have noted already in this thread AirAsia's sale/leaseback business strategy. I'm sure they thought they were getting A339s cheap enough. But it could be the leasing company is pricing in too much risk for that strategy.
viewtopic.php?t=1361025

Or this could be a tempest in a teapot and we're discussing more than AirAsia is discussing.

Lightsaber

abrelosojos · Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OA940 wrote:
Well RIP A330neo if that happens.

My first thought was 'what is the background on this?' Do we really take this seriously.

What you posted was my second thought. Without AirAsia, the A330NEO program becomes the widebody 717. Both are great planes, but there comes a point were a re-engine just isn't enough due to characteristics inherited from the original design. Widebodies suffer more from fuel burn costs due to mission lengths and there is no way an aluminum wing matches the weight and aerodynamics of CFRP wings. With the A350 and 787, no leasing company is going to offer a profit from day one sale/leaseback. They will demand a substantial down payment to ensure if the plane is returned early, they will still make a profit.

I find it interesting per the last aircraft vales, and lease rates the A333 and 788 were leased for the same rates. But what are the down payment terms? Others have noted already in this thread AirAsia's sale/leaseback business strategy. I'm sure they thought they were getting A339s cheap enough. But it could be the leasing company is pricing in too much risk for that strategy.
viewtopic.php?t=1361025

Or this could be a tempest in a teapot and we're discussing more than AirAsia is discussing.

Lightsaber

= Exactly. The fact that people take anything Tony say seriously is beyond belief. Just Google or follow-him with all the stuff he says, and it always changes. Tony is the biggest marketing airline boss out there, with little substance. In the past year alone, we have heard of him trying for C Series, the Comac 919, AirAsia X flying to Rio via Lisbon, London on and off and on and off, buying 330, buying 350, buying 777, etc. Must be exhausting to actually work at AirASia.

Saludos,
Alex

chiki · Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:28 am

Seems they are considering 787 seriously but i doubt they will change from Airbus

Momo1435 · Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:56 am

So basically they are still saying the exact same thing as 3 months ago when this thread started. The only news is that they haven't made a decision yet on any new orders or order conversions.

flee · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:12 am

I doubt that this is any news at all - the media usually asks questions at event press conferences and he is merely answering them. It isn't an Airasia press conference to announce something. D7 should begin taking delivery of some used A330-300s later this year.

KarelXWB · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:20 am

Indeed, just the usual "we are looking at all options" comment.

frigatebird · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:31 am

A lease deal for 77W's fell through last year because Airasia's infrastructure was compeletely focused on Airbus products. So I very much doubt they can be seriously interested in 787s, unless Airasia orders a big number. But they already have all those A330neo's on order, can't see that happening.

81819 · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:45 am

Their contract with Airbus could allow the A330NEO to be swapped out for other aircraft types.

There would be two components to the A330NEO deal, the core aircraft needs of AirAsia X and the financial/commercial realities of owning the aircraft.

With AirAsia looking at selling off their aircraft leasing business the numbers just may point to a different aircraft in their fleet.

zeke · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:50 am

What part of their route structure would benefit from so many aircraft designed for long haul flying ?

339s would seem perfect for them on so many fronts.

WIederling · Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:53 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
I am wondering why we have seen so many threads recently with airlines reconsidering widebody orders. I know there was a bubble, but all these rumor threads make it seem like airplane orders are written and signed in chalk.

The aviation industry changes rapidly and unfortunately, development of new airplane types takes a long time. Launched in 2014 and entry into service 2018, a lot can change during those 4 years.

What we see in these news articles and also postings here is probably nothing more than irregular marketing. FUD.

JamesCousins · Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:23 am

flee wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Maybe he is looking for an excuse to delay deliveries further, as the A350 wouldn't be available for several more years

This is not likely as they are currently short on aircraft and are looking to lease about 4-6 used A330s for the near term, pending new aircraft deliveries.

Yeah but leasing 4-6 A/C is quite different to an order for 66 aircraft, not sure what the delivery schedule is though...

Momo1435 · Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:20 pm

frigatebird wrote:
A lease deal for 77W's fell through last year because Airasia's infrastructure was compeletely focused on Airbus products. So I very much doubt they can be seriously interested in 787s, unless Airasia orders a big number. But they already have all those A330neo's on order, can't see that happening.

The 787 is only brought up as an alternative for the A330neo, if they order the 787 it will mean a (partial) cancellation of the A330neo order.

And the issue with the infrastructure will not be a large obstacle. There's a big difference between leasing a limited number of aircraft of a new type for a short period as an interim solution and placing a larger order for a new type that will be in the fleet for a much longer period.

Having said that, I think the chance they will order the 787 is much lower than they will stay with Airbus with or without a change from the A330neo to the A350. But Boeing will offer them a very good deal of course, with very good price and early delivery slots. It would be a major coup, but it's worth it to get AirAsia in.

KarelXWB · Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:40 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
A lease deal for 77W's fell through last year because Airasia's infrastructure was compeletely focused on Airbus products. So I very much doubt they can be seriously interested in 787s, unless Airasia orders a big number. But they already have all those A330neo's on order, can't see that happening.

The 787 is only brought up as an alternative for the A330neo, if they order the 787 it will mean a (partial) cancellation of the A330neo order.

That is not what the article claims:

“AirAsia X will need more planes. We are now looking at (Airbus) 330 (and) 350s, (Boeing) 787,” Fernandes told reporters on the sidelines of a business forum in Manila.

Ref https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aira ... FM0JS?il=0

Momo1435 · Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:47 pm

That doesn't say anything since we don't know if he meant that he needs more planes then he currently has in his fleet or if he meant more planes then he currently has on order.

KarelXWB · Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:53 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
That doesn't say anything since we don't know if he meant that he needs more planes then he currently has in his fleet or if he meant more planes then he currently has on order.

Then why jumping to conclusions in the first place?

Momo1435 wrote:
The 787 is only brought up as an alternative for the A330neo, if they order the 787 it will mean a (partial) cancellation of the A330neo order.

NZ321 · Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:40 pm

I really doubt the whole Air Asia long range plan. It has had little or no success to date. Long haul carriers discount seats to fill the cabin and offer superior levels of comfort. How will Air Asia get a leg in here when it has failed in the past? If Fernandes wants more jets and more capacity then it seems to me it is likely for short-medium haul ops not long haul missions for which the 789 and 350 are designed. Even the A330 Neo seems more plane than they need for the routes they can make work.

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