News out that 3 overseas banks have carried out an inspection of Kenya Airways’ aircrafts in preparation to repossessing them should it delay to strike a restructuring deal with the banks, the national carrier said yesterday.

The 3 banks oppose the proposed USD $2.2Bil debt restructuring terms and hold aircraft and engines as collateral

KQ adds that it faces imminent collapse, with catastrophic consequences to the economy including job losses, creation of an air transportation crisis, should it lose access to the aircraft.

KQ wary of repossession of aircraft by overseas banks over debt
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/busines ... orms-delay

=

Seems things are even worse off at KQ than previously reported.

I wonder which aircraft are subject the bank collateral

Can we add Kenya Airways to the likes of Alitalia, Air Berlin, and South African Airways?

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Sad. Kenya Airways has been around since 1946, formed after the dissolution of East African Airways. I'm no economics expert, but I was wondering what role, if any, the 2014 startup of wholly-owned, LCC subsidiary Jambojet has to do with the economic collapse of Kenya Airways. Then, I read where Jambojet made a profit last year, following two years of heavy losses. Whatever reasons come to light, this state of affairs with Kenya Airways is still sad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jambojet#Business_trends

If I've calculated it correctly, KQ's debt of Sh142.34 billion is equivalent to US$1.38billion. Even allowing for the terrorist attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping centre and the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, this is still an astonishing debt. I'll bet that Air France-KLM which has a 26.7 per cent stake in KQ is not happy with its investment.

gunnerman wrote:

If I've calculated it correctly, KQ's debt of Sh142.34 billion is equivalent to US$1.38billion. Even allowing for the terrorist attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping centre and the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, this is still an astonishing debt. I'll bet that Air France-KLM which has a 26.7 per cent stake in KQ is not happy with its investment.

Perhaps they were taking investment advice from Etihad Airways.
I expect the next thing will be fuel suppliers wanting payment in cash at airports, I would.

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Politics and terrorism and other concerns affect tourism, which hurts. I'm no expert, but assume that would have an impact.

A heavily leased fleet of new airplanes can be costly. That was also partially Air Berlin's downfall. Kenya Airways' 737-800 fleet as well as Air Berlin's A320 fleet owned by lessors are expensive. Small airlines and less financially stable airlines tend to pay higher lease fees, which exacerbates the problem.

SkyVoice wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Sad. Kenya Airways has been around since 1946, formed after the dissolution of East African Airways. I'm no economics expert, but I was wondering what role, if any, the 2014 startup of wholly-owned, LCC subsidiary Jambojet has to do with the economic collapse of Kenya Airways. Then, I read where Jambojet made a profit last year, following two years of heavy losses. Whatever reasons come to light, this state of affairs with Kenya Airways is still sad.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jambojet#Business_trends

Not sure where you get your information from but KQ has been around since 1978. Not 1946!!

gunnerman wrote:

If I've calculated it correctly, KQ's debt of Sh142.34 billion is equivalent to US$1.38billion. Even allowing for the terrorist attack on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping centre and the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, this is still an astonishing debt. I'll bet that Air France-KLM which has a 26.7 per cent stake in KQ is not happy with its investment.

Outright theft by certain board members

I can't say that this surprises me at all. As soon as they started taking delivery of 77Ws, I questioned how well they'd actually thought that through. Ethiopian can pull it off, but that's after years of carefully crafted expansion. For Kenya Airways, it seemed like it was just too much, too fast...sadly that proved true.

Dumb question but what happens if it does collapse (as it well might).Does AirFrance-KLM go the whole hog?Would there be an open auction?
Or does it simply 'cease to be' and other World airlines simply take up the slack?

MileHFL400 wrote:

SkyVoice wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Sad. Kenya Airways has been around since 1946, formed after the dissolution of East African Airways. I'm no economics expert, but I was wondering what role, if any, the 2014 startup of wholly-owned, LCC subsidiary Jambojet has to do with the economic collapse of Kenya Airways. Then, I read where Jambojet made a profit last year, following two years of heavy losses. Whatever reasons come to light, this state of affairs with Kenya Airways is still sad.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jambojet#Business_trends

Not sure where you get your information from but KQ has been around since 1978. Not 1946!!

Confusing it with East African Airways. Which of course KQ was set up after EAA was shut down. KQ was set up in the same year 1977.

parapente wrote:

Dumb question but what happens if it does collapse (as it well might).Does AirFrance-KLM go the whole hog?Would there be an open auction?
Or does it simply 'cease to be' and other World airlines simply take up the slack?

This is a top reason (alongside tax efficiency) that businesses structure holdings with multiple subsidiaries: To let one die without taking down the whole AF-KL enterprise.

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/busines ... uring-plan

parapente wrote:

Dumb question but what happens if it does collapse (as it well might).Does AirFrance-KLM go the whole hog?Would there be an open auction?
Or does it simply 'cease to be' and other World airlines simply take up the slack?

If a collapsed company cannot be sold as a going concern, then its assets are sold piecemeal. Any funds raised are used to pay creditors and shareholders (who are bottom of the pile as they provided risk capital). So, shareholders such as Air France-KLM would get nothing in this case, although an airline group may be able to buy aircraft cheaply.

Though slightly off-topic;

Why not just have KQ go to the Chinese for financing?

1). It is not as if the current Kenyan regime is opposed to broad-ranging Chinese 'investment' (even at the implication of political mismanagement and/or corruption);

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/15/africa/kenya-railway-east-africa/index.html
Now, the first section of the east African nation's $13.8 billion railway is nearly finished.
The railway is being built by the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), 90% of the ongoing development of the Mombasa-Nairobi section is being financed by The Export-Import Bank of China.

thus treating the 'issue' of KQ in a similar manner of 'developing/maintaining infrastructure' - could logically, and perhaps legally fall under similar protections/status/investement.

2). If not going directly the the Chinese banks for the credit, why not court Chinese investors in the business? If AF/KLM decide to sell their shares, new investors will be necessary anyway - though, even AF/KLM will more likely want to see those shares appreciate before they sell (as they are essentially at the bottom of the barrel, or - staring down the shaft of a barrel - regarding pricing; it's not as if a new investor would be unintelligent of the facts facing the company and thus would not pay 'top dollar' from the privilege of ownership at this time).
Kenya Airways only serves Guangzhou in China, and Hong Kong. Only one Indian city, and the termination of Hanoi this year; yet the fleet capable of better serving Asia.
By contrast, consider a competitor; Ethiopian, and how well they are able to balance not only East, but West - in the Network. Their Asian portfolio is thus, impressive;
https://www.ethiopianairlines.com/AA/EN/book/destinations
Why does Kenya Airways not better benefit from the SkyTeam alliance, and partner with MU (China Eastern) and better capitalize upon their network to get passengers to Africa? Just on the railway alone, and $13.8 Billion spent - no business travelers to capitalize upon? Do they take the train? I mean - if you're going to be indebetted, why not use that as a business oppurtunity to enter one of the fastest growing markets in the world? Why not attempt to better tap into Xiamen Air for regional services? Were loads indeed so anemic, that despite the help of VN that they had to drop Hanoi? Korean is an alliance partner, can they not assist in getting them a connection base at KE, at ICN? Hell, even that might be a decent access point to China.

3). Why not 'swap' the fleet. I mean, why not lease from Chinese banks instead? Instead of committing to a new fleet (and the costs), perhaps they should oppurtunistic in an interesting way. Case in point - looking at the large E190 fleet; why not approach Embraer now, while they are struggling to find an interested party - and order the E2-195 and ramp up regional destinations. The range is actually rather impressive for the continent, and would enable a higher level of service (in comparison to the LCCs) and greater flexibility than the larger jets needed by the LCC operators.

At the E2-190s range of 2800nm;

Code: Select all

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/commercial-jets/e195-e2-commercial-jet/

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=2800nm%40NBO&MS=wls&DU=mi

At the E2-195s range of 2600nm:

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/commercial-jets/e195-e2-commercial-jet/

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=2600nm%40NBO&MS=wls&DU=mi

p.s. after going the the hard way of gcmapping the ranges, I visited Embraers's website to discover they had already done it for me, with NBO specially.

If financing, do so via BRICS, as they would be more than willing to engage - especially with a "new" nation/potential member (terms might be better), and/or tag on an investment from an Asian/Chinese partner to invest.

Thus;
Short-term;
Grow the fleet, leveraging on the economics of the E2. They already have the pilots and the experiences with the E190s as is. Expand upon the better economics and certainly better reliability to better tackle domestic/regional. Specialize into greater business class and premium offerings (to capture that market). Consider the penalties of a slightly high elevation of NBO, and offer a larger/ligther-by-density business class cabin to compensate - to get a decent range of the E2s. E2-190s can make it to Pakistan/India. E2-195s can offer multiple NBO-MBA frequencies to rival LCCs, and operate a MBA-JED to boot in between.
Rely, in greater regard, on Asian partners to grow the Asian side of the business, and better equalize the "Eastern" theater of operations. I mean, having AF/KLM as an investor, demonstrates dedication to the market, but also - it is not as if AF has been doing well either. Codeshare and/or incentivize carriers to partner with KQ but to do the 'heavy lifting' at a time where KQ refocuses on the core markets and offers the benefit of a solid connecting partner to/from Africa.
Medium-term;
Grow long-haul, but with the experience of partnerships. An A330-900NEO would be a potent match for their fleet. Save for a new partner, most of their current partners and/or future likely partners - will be A330 operators. DL,VS, AF/KLM, 9W, (and then you have VN, KE and MU, who have both the 787 and the A330); and it might be easier to lease/maintain/return A330CEOs (at current low lease rates), or order late example A330-300s (which have a MTOW increase, but also can be 'regionalized'), or even lease new A330-900NEOs as needed. I mean, I would hate to see the 787s go, but if there were a need to expand; future 788s are going to be too expensive, and 789s (might be better able to handle the U.S. non-stop) might be more expensive to go on long-haul where they will face much greater pressures to perform. A partnership (especially along the lines of DL's relationship with 9W) could add them to the Trans-Atlantic partnership (with transfers at AMS and/or CDG) and render the need for non-stop service to the U.S. moot, anyway - or better manage the workload/need for non-stops to the 788s, and better capitalize on A330s where they can truly rise to the occasion, all at a lower cost than adding more 787s, when the range is not necessary. Take the pressure off of Western Partners, by focusing on regional and ramping up to the East (using partners more/better) and looking for investment there as well. Better balance the fleet, focus the stratergy, and better balance the network. Finance through BRICS, or through the Chinese if necessary - and shrink now, but rebuild: stronger.

Rajahdhani wrote:

Though slightly off-topic;

Why not just have KQ go to the Chinese for financing?

1). It is not as if the current Kenyan regime is opposed to broad-ranging Chinese 'investment' (even at the implication of political mismanagement and/or corruption);

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/15/africa/kenya-railway-east-africa/index.html
Now, the first section of the east African nation's $13.8 billion railway is nearly finished.
The railway is being built by the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), 90% of the ongoing development of the Mombasa-Nairobi section is being financed by The Export-Import Bank of China.

thus treating the 'issue' of KQ in a similar manner of 'developing/maintaining infrastructure' - could logically, and perhaps legally fall under similar protections/status/investement.

2). If not going directly the the Chinese banks for the credit, why not court Chinese investors in the business? If AF/KLM decide to sell their shares, new investors will be necessary anyway - though, even AF/KLM will more likely want to see those shares appreciate before they sell (as they are essentially at the bottom of the barrel, or - staring down the shaft of a barrel - regarding pricing; it's not as if a new investor would be unintelligent of the facts facing the company and thus would not pay 'top dollar' from the privilege of ownership at this time).
Kenya Airways only serves Guangzhou in China, and Hong Kong. Only one Indian city, and the termination of Hanoi this year; yet the fleet capable of better serving Asia.
By contrast, consider a competitor; Ethiopian, and how well they are able to balance not only East, but West - in the Network. Their Asian portfolio is thus, impressive;
https://www.ethiopianairlines.com/AA/EN/book/destinations
Why does Kenya Airways not better benefit from the SkyTeam alliance, and partner with MU (China Eastern) and better capitalize upon their network to get passengers to Africa? Just on the railway alone, and $13.8 Billion spent - no business travelers to capitalize upon? Do they take the train? I mean - if you're going to be indebetted, why not use that as a business oppurtunity to enter one of the fastest growing markets in the world? Why not attempt to better tap into Xiamen Air for regional services? Were loads indeed so anemic, that despite the help of VN that they had to drop Hanoi? Korean is an alliance partner, can they not assist in getting them a connection base at KE, at ICN? Hell, even that might be a decent access point to China.

3). Why not 'swap' the fleet. I mean, why not lease from Chinese banks instead? Instead of committing to a new fleet (and the costs), perhaps they should oppurtunistic in an interesting way. Case in point - looking at the large E190 fleet; why not approach Embraer now, while they are struggling to find an interested party - and order the E2-195 and ramp up regional destinations. The range is actually rather impressive for the continent, and would enable a higher level of service (in comparison to the LCCs) and greater flexibility than the larger jets needed by the LCC operators.

At the E2-190s range of 2800nm;

Code: Select all

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/commercial-jets/e195-e2-commercial-jet/

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=2800nm%40NBO&MS=wls&DU=mi

At the E2-195s range of 2600nm:

https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/commercial-jets/e195-e2-commercial-jet/

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=2600nm%40NBO&MS=wls&DU=mi

p.s. after going the the hard way of gcmapping the ranges, I visited Embraers's website to discover they had already done it for me, with NBO specially.

If financing, do so via BRICS, as they would be more than willing to engage - especially with a "new" nation/potential member (terms might be better), and/or tag on an investment from an Asian/Chinese partner to invest.

Thus;
Short-term;
Grow the fleet, leveraging on the economics of the E2. They already have the pilots and the experiences with the E190s as is. Expand upon the better economics and certainly better reliability to better tackle domestic/regional. Specialize into greater business class and premium offerings (to capture that market). Consider the penalties of a slightly high elevation of NBO, and offer a larger/ligther-by-density business class cabin to compensate - to get a decent range of the E2s. E2-190s can make it to Pakistan/India. E2-195s can offer multiple NBO-MBA frequencies to rival LCCs, and operate a MBA-JED to boot in between.
Rely, in greater regard, on Asian partners to grow the Asian side of the business, and better equalize the "Eastern" theater of operations. I mean, having AF/KLM as an investor, demonstrates dedication to the market, but also - it is not as if AF has been doing well either. Codeshare and/or incentivize carriers to partner with KQ but to do the 'heavy lifting' at a time where KQ refocuses on the core markets and offers the benefit of a solid connecting partner to/from Africa.
Medium-term;
Grow long-haul, but with the experience of partnerships. An A330-900NEO would be a potent match for their fleet. Save for a new partner, most of their current partners and/or future likely partners - will be A330 operators. DL,VS, AF/KLM, 9W, (and then you have VN, KE and MU, who have both the 787 and the A330); and it might be easier to lease/maintain/return A330CEOs (at current low lease rates), or order late example A330-300s (which have a MTOW increase, but also can be 'regionalized'), or even lease new A330-900NEOs as needed. I mean, I would hate to see the 787s go, but if there were a need to expand; future 788s are going to be too expensive, and 789s (might be better able to handle the U.S. non-stop) might be more expensive to go on long-haul where they will face much greater pressures to perform. A partnership (especially along the lines of DL's relationship with 9W) could add them to the Trans-Atlantic partnership (with transfers at AMS and/or CDG) and render the need for non-stop service to the U.S. moot, anyway - or better manage the workload/need for non-stops to the 788s, and better capitalize on A330s where they can truly rise to the occasion, all at a lower cost than adding more 787s, when the range is not necessary. Take the pressure off of Western Partners, by focusing on regional and ramping up to the East (using partners more/better) and looking for investment there as well. Better balance the fleet, focus the stratergy, and better balance the network. Finance through BRICS, or through the Chinese if necessary - and shrink now, but rebuild: stronger.

Oh right, because Kenya Airways really needs to be looking at more aircraft at a time when their current fleet risks repossession. Great logic there.

It also probably does not help that Kenya has stumbled as a nation both economically and politically in recent years while neighbors like Ethiopia have seen amazing economic growth and political stability.

LAXintl wrote:

It also probably does not help that Kenya has stumbled as a nation both economically and politically in recent years while neighbors like Ethiopia have seen amazing economic growth and political stability.

OT but this is so far besides the truth I have to reply: in the past year hundreds of people have died protesting in Ethiopia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Ethiopian_protests

I wouldn't call that 'amazing political stability'. Maybe compared to some neigboring countries, Syria or Turkey, but not according to international standards.

mercure1 wrote:
I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Project Mwanigu

I'll bet that Air France-KLM which has a 26.7 per cent stake in KQ is not happy with its investment.

13%. AF-KLM have reduced their stakes in KQ. And there are currently many disagrements. KLM now serves Kigali & Entebbe daily, it operated during a short time services to Harare and Lusaka.

Fares provided by KLM are lower than Kenya Airways. It means that more and more passengers use only Amsterdam hub to reach Kigali and Entebbe, instead to fly via Amsterdam and Nairobi. In 2014, Kenya Airways started to put its own KQ code on KLM route AMS-EBB-KGL. It was a mistake.

October 2016:

"Kenya Airways management could have ended the KLM partnership earlier to save the airline from last year’s Sh26 billion losses, the National Assembly Transport Committee was told yesterday.

The International Air Transport Association told legislators KQ management failed to evaluate financial benefit from the KLM partnership so it could not make an appropriate decision."

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/10 ... n_c1437738

The airline is losing money with its sub leasing to Oman Air (2 B787s) and Turkish Airlines (3 B777-300ERs)

September 2017: Kenya Airways has reported a Sh2.61 billion loss on the sub-lease of its aircraft, indicating the heavy burden that the national carrier continues to shoulder from previous years of rapid expansion that was not matched by proportionate growth in customer demand:

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/econ ... index.html

Don't forget the McKinsey & Company drama.

Kenya Airways has confirmed it is to end a controversial cost-cutting and revenue re-engineering contract with McKinsey – one that has seen it spend Sh2.3 billion (20.8 million euros) over the last ten-months on a near-permanent team of advisers. Instead, the airline will now only hire US McKinsey consultants on an as and when basis. The new deal brings an end to a contract that has been described as ‘lopsided and the most expensive in Kenya’s corporate history’.

https://www.consultor.news/management-c ... tract.html

And also, pilots exodus

Kenya Airways (KQ) lost a record 55 pilots last year, raising to nearly 100 the number of pilots who have exited the struggling national carrier in two years.The exits left the national carrier operating below the optimum number of pilots needed for smooth flight operations, KQ says in its latest annual report. The national carrier had 434 pilots on its books at the end of March this year, 10 below the required number. This risks creating disruptions in flights given that a number of pilots are certified to fly only certain models of aircraft, exposing the carrier to manpower shortages when they go off duty.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corp ... index.html

Jetty wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

It also probably does not help that Kenya has stumbled as a nation both economically and politically in recent years while neighbors like Ethiopia have seen amazing economic growth and political stability.

OT but this is so far besides the truth I have to reply: in the past year hundreds of people have died protesting in Ethiopia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Ethiopian_protests

I wouldn't call that 'amazing political stability'. Maybe compared to some neigboring countries, Syria or Turkey, but not according to international standards.

Ethiopia has been an island of stability in East Africa. Nothing like the grisly ethnic events in Kenya and other neighbors.

Economically World Bank this summer upped its 2017-2018 forecast and that estimated the nation would enjoy the strongest growth of any African nation and could eventually rival Nigeria and South Africa as the largest sub-Saharan economy on the continent.

These facts along with other upcoming events like a new airport in ADD will help provide a tailwind for ET, while KQ faces headwinds.

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Over the past couple of years AF-KLM have been expanding in Africa and the 777-300ER. It's a great plane but to big for them. For example, they carried a lot of cargo to AMS but the number of pax on the flights I've seen was between 30 and 60%. Not sure about the load factors currently but it was bad.

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks. That surely didn't help them.

Would love to see a repossession and how they would do it.

If you can't pay your bills then you get what you get!

Where did they go wrong? They and SAA used to be the premier African airlines. Times change, eh? Sad.

rukundo wrote:

mercure1 wrote:
I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

Project Mwanigu

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corp ... index.html

Correct! KQ problem has been escalating year on year, Project Mawingu was largely to blame for the loss. Coupled with political instability and Ebola outbreak, recipe for disaster. The airline shrunk so much over the years in terms of route and aircraft and yet still making loss. They brought in ex-LOT CEO, not sure if he can do magic anytime soon.

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/25 ... index.html

For those who like to read more on Project Mawingu, here: https://www.slideshare.net/thiongonick/ ... r-strategy

Does anybody know anything about the management team/CEO of the Airline?Seems like a catalog of compounded errors.
I went there from London about 5 years ago.The best and cheapest route was via Dubai/Emirates.I spent 2 days with the kids in Dubai and then on to Nairobi.As I recall this (inc the 2 days hotel) was the same price as direct.
Now a sample of one is meaningless I know but if they can't attract UK customers that's a pretty poor start I would say.On long haul is Emirates the big fly in the ointment?

That 2021 route map is pure fantasy. I don't foresee any African carrier flying to all of those Indian airports at least: DEL, BOM, MAA, HYD, AMD, BLR and CCU (?) as well.

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake

I would suggest that ordering 77Ws was part of the problem.

zkojq wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake

I would suggest that ordering 77Ws was part of the problem.

Too many new aircraft were ordered at the same time, B737NG, Embraer 170, 190, B772ER, B77W, and B787, a bucket load of them at one go. Must have put a strain on their balance sheet.

That 2021 route map is pure fantasy. I don't foresee any African carrier flying to all of those Indian airports at least: DEL, BOM, MAA, HYD, AMD, BLR and CCU (?) as well.

Currently Ethiopian and Air Mauritius have largest network in India, operated by African airlines

ET: Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai & Bangalore (both only Cargo). I have doubt, but i think that Ethiopian served Kolkata, in the past.
MK: Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore
Egyptair: Delhi, Mumbai
RwandAir: Mumbai
Air Austral: Chennai

juliuswong wrote:

zkojq wrote:

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake

I would suggest that ordering 77Ws was part of the problem.

Too many new aircraft were ordered at the same time, B737NG, Embraer 170, 190, B772ER, B77W, and B787, a bucket load of them at one go. Must have put a strain on their balance sheet.

More to the point that the 77W wasn't a very economic plane for them.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Oh right, because Kenya Airways really needs to be looking at more aircraft at a time when their current fleet risks repossession. Great logic there.

So...if you repossess their current aircraft - what will they fly with? Downsizing the fleet (or, rather, simplifying it along the lines of their most popular aircraft right now) - has many added benefits, and would help not only cut costs - but also, increase profitability - as they 'shrunk' to profitability. Had you the chance to actually read my argument, it is rather elaborately explained. The airline has not made decent profits in the pursuit of long-haul, and has an opportunity to better build their regional network. Current political instability and close ties to the Chinese favor funding from Chinese banks (as opposed to Western ones, whe have stricter demands on control, 'needs' and demands). If the airline were to 'lose' (via repossession), or naturally shed (via downsizing) - they are still going to need a fleet to operate.

rukundo wrote:

13%. AF-KLM have reduced their stakes in KQ. And there are currently many disagrements. KLM now serves Kigali & Entebbe daily, it operated during a short time services to Harare and Lusaka.

Fares provided by KLM are lower than Kenya Airways. It means that more and more passengers use only Amsterdam hub to reach Kigali and Entebbe, instead to fly via Amsterdam and Nairobi. In 2014, Kenya Airways started to put its own KQ code on KLM route AMS-EBB-KGL. It was a mistake.

I am not sure what you're talking about. All KL flights to East Africa (including the former services to HRE and LUN) are operated in the joint venture with KQ. All current profits made on KL metal to KGL, EBB, JRO and DAR are shared with KQ (and similarly KQ flights to LHR and CDG). The arrangement in principle frees up seats on KQ seats for other connections and expansion. There is no evidence that passenger numbers between AMS and NBO have taken a hit due to KL expansion in East Africa. KL/KQ still fill up a full pax 747 and 777/787 daily. In the peak summer time they fill up three daily flights..

If anything, could the higher prices charged by KQ reflect their higher than average operating costs?

KQ apparently sold 2 737-700s in leaseback deal in September to generate cash.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corp ... 4-k4bu15z/

I am not sure what you're talking about. All KL flights to East Africa (including the former services to HRE and LUN) are operated in the joint venture with KQ. All current profits made on KL metal to KGL, EBB, JRO and DAR are shared with KQ (and similarly KQ flights to LHR and CDG). The arrangement in principle frees up seats on KQ seats for other connections and expansion. There is no evidence that passenger numbers between AMS and NBO have taken a hit due to KL expansion in East Africa. KL/KQ still fill up a full pax 747 and 777/787 daily. In the peak summer time they fill up three daily flights..

In deed, but Kenya Airways board says that, the agreement is now unfair, they are losing money on the Amsterdam-Nairobi route i guess.

“The cooperation agreement was expanded in November 2013: ..the collaboration was extended with the new routes London-Nairobi, Amsterdam-Entebbe / Kigali, Amsterdam-Lusaka-Harare and Amsterdam, and the Amsterdam-Kilimanjaro / Dar es Salaam. Kenya Airways and KLM jointly total around 44 weekly flights with a total turnover of over US$500 million.

However, this week, the KQ CEO said that the “In the context of the revenues and the costs on the routes in the joint agreement venture which we share 50-50, over the last three years, the route has been loss making,” ..and he said the Dutch Airline had since paid them a settlement transaction

http://bankelele.co.ke/2015/08/understa ... rship.html

KLM deal flying Kenya Airways into losses, Senate team told http://www.nation.co.ke/business/KLM-de ... index.html

KQ moves to end ‘abusive’ union with Dutch Airlines, KLM
Read more at: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/busines ... rlines-klm

Last thursday, I flew Kenya Airways on the KGL-NBO-CDG legs in Business Class exclusively to support them!
The Kigali - Nairobi leg was honestly 60% full (yes originally from Bujumbura/ Burundi) in J and Economy..
The NBO - CDG flight had only 9 seats available. Yes 2, in J and 5 or more in Eco.
This year, I had to battle myself very hard to find available seats (3 only) within the next 6 months on the current KQ routes.
Which airlines were managed perfectly with no debt over the years?

I trust Kenya Airways very much and my money invested in with them remains safe

Welcome to the new Airliners.net, post 2016?

Any good news about East Africa?

mercure1 wrote:

I am not sure where KQ made its fatal mistake but clearly, the expensive fleet and network expansion has come back to haunt it the last several years with deepening losses since 2013.

They expanded just as fossil fuel prices on the world markets started collapsing hurting the economy of the resource dependent African countries and the west alike. A resurgence in terrorism has not helped tourism and business.

Having talked to many Kenyan pilots I was under the impression the Embraer was not the right airplane vs the Boeing. Seems a lot of corruption in play, many of the public ministers / board members bought Embraers, leased them back to company at very high rates, while getting rid of 777.
With the high elevation in Nairobi, the Embraer is unable to carry all bags and cargo, have heard of cargo sitting on the ramp for a week as flights are always full.
( just the version I have heard)

Casablanca wrote:

Having talked to many Kenyan pilots I was under the impression the Embraer was not the right airplane vs the Boeing. Seems a lot of corruption in play, many of the public ministers / board members bought Embraers, leased them back to company at very high rates, while getting rid of 777.
With the high elevation in Nairobi, the Embraer is unable to carry all bags and cargo, have heard of cargo sitting on the ramp for a week as flights are always full.
( just the version I have heard)

In addition, the 787-8 Just isn’t big enough for many of the routes

KQ operates the embraer to jeddah (which can be a very high volume route during the pilgrim season) and i have witnessed luggage being left behind because the embraer 190 becomes weight restricted.

Kenya Airways makes changes, but repossession still looms:

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... till-looms

The curse of the 'cheap' 777-300, just like Indonesian.

2 of 3 hold out banks close to agreeing on deal to convert some of their Sh5 billion loan (USD $48m) debt into shares of the company.

All in all carrier has Sh18 billion in short term debt its trying to restructure and is offering lenders a 28 percent stake in the airline through a holding firm called KQ Lenders Company.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corp ... index.html

=

I don't think swapping the short-haul fleet is going to help Kenya Airways. Intra-African flights should be extremely profitable, competition is virtually non-existant. Africa is underserved on internal flights. It's on the long-haul flights that Kenya Airways has major problems with the ME3+TK undercutting them. I am pretty sure a return ticket from Europe to Dar-Es-Salaam would set you back 1000 eur or more 15 years ago. I swear I saw TK offering tickets for as low as 100 eur last year.
On another note, if TK can serve most of Africa with 737s, maybe Kenya Airways should consider ditching the 787s and serve Europe with 737s too.

JeremyB wrote:

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks. That surely didn't help them.

The Ebola outbreak wasn't in Kenya, it was in West Africa. Kenya Airways was affected because they have a lot of routes there.

VSMUT wrote:

I don't think swapping the short-haul fleet is going to help Kenya Airways. Intra-African flights should be extremely profitable, competition is virtually non-existant. Africa is underserved on internal flights. It's on the long-haul flights that Kenya Airways has major problems with the ME3+TK undercutting them. I am pretty sure a return ticket from Europe to Dar-Es-Salaam would set you back 1000 eur or more 15 years ago. I swear I saw TK offering tickets for as low as 100 eur last year.
On another note, if TK can serve most of Africa with 737s, maybe Kenya Airways should consider ditching the 787s and serve Europe with 737s too.

JeremyB wrote:

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks. That surely didn't help them.

The Ebola outbreak wasn't in Kenya, it was in West Africa. Kenya Airways was affected because they have a lot of routes there.

Where did I imply that the ebola outbreak was in Kenya? Where they affected by the ebola outbreak or not?

VSMUT wrote:

I don't think swapping the short-haul fleet is going to help Kenya Airways. Intra-African flights should be extremely profitable, competition is virtually non-existant. Africa is underserved on internal flights. It's on the long-haul flights that Kenya Airways has major problems with the ME3+TK undercutting them. I am pretty sure a return ticket from Europe to Dar-Es-Salaam would set you back 1000 eur or more 15 years ago. I swear I saw TK offering tickets for as low as 100 eur last year.
On another note, if TK can serve most of Africa with 737s, maybe Kenya Airways should consider ditching the 787s and serve Europe with 737s too.

JeremyB wrote:

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks. That surely didn't help them.

The Ebola outbreak wasn't in Kenya, it was in West Africa. Kenya Airways was affected because they have a lot of routes there.

TK is not serving "most of Africa" from "Europe", but more precisely the part down to Tanzania from IST. LON, AMS, PAR and other markets in Europe that could be interesting for KQ cannot be flown from NBO in a meaningful way with a 737.

VSMUT wrote:

I don't think swapping the short-haul fleet is going to help Kenya Airways. Intra-African flights should be extremely profitable, competition is virtually non-existant. Africa is underserved on internal flights. It's on the long-haul flights that Kenya Airways has major problems with the ME3+TK undercutting them. I am pretty sure a return ticket from Europe to Dar-Es-Salaam would set you back 1000 eur or more 15 years ago. I swear I saw TK offering tickets for as low as 100 eur last year.
On another note, if TK can serve most of Africa with 737s, maybe Kenya Airways should consider ditching the 787s and serve Europe with 737s too.

JeremyB wrote:

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks. That surely didn't help them.

The Ebola outbreak wasn't in Kenya, it was in West Africa. Kenya Airways was affected because they have a lot of routes there.

Rubbish. The 787 is infact too small for some of their routes

MalevTU134 wrote:

TK is not serving "most of Africa" from "Europe", but more precisely the part down to Tanzania from IST. LON, AMS, PAR and other markets in Europe that could be interesting for KQ cannot be flown from NBO in a meaningful way with a 737.

So do a fuel stop. TK passengers already have a "fuel stop" in Istanbul. Kenya Airways will still be at an advantage vs Turkish if they do a short 20 min fuel stop in Malta or Catania.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Rubbish. The 787 is infact too small for some of their routes

Size is irrelevant if the margins are too low. They got rid of the larger 777s for a reason.

JeremyB wrote:

Where did I imply that the ebola outbreak was in Kenya? Where they affected by the ebola outbreak or not?

Nowhere, you didn't imply it. You wrote it.

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks

hayzel777 wrote:

Would love to see a repossession and how they would do it.

If you can't pay your bills then you get what you get!

Maybe they can put it on that show "Plane Repo"... like a two hour special. Where they are supposed to be sneaking an aircraft off the airfield but still have time to install eight different GoPro's around the aircraft.

LAXintl wrote:

2 of 3 hold out banks close to agreeing on deal to convert some of their Sh5 billion loan (USD $48m) debt into shares of the company.

All in all carrier has Sh18 billion in short term debt its trying to restructure and is offering lenders a 28 percent stake in the airline through a holding firm called KQ Lenders Company.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corp ... index.html

=

I know if I was close to repossessing a critical asset of a company, the first thing I would want is shares of that failing company. Brilliant move!

VSMUT wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

TK is not serving "most of Africa" from "Europe", but more precisely the part down to Tanzania from IST. LON, AMS, PAR and other markets in Europe that could be interesting for KQ cannot be flown from NBO in a meaningful way with a 737.

So do a fuel stop. TK passengers already have a "fuel stop" in Istanbul. Kenya Airways will still be at an advantage vs Turkish if they do a short 20 min fuel stop in Malta or Catania.

MileHFL400 wrote:

Rubbish. The 787 is infact too small for some of their routes

Size is irrelevant if the margins are too low. They got rid of the larger 777s for a reason.

JeremyB wrote:

Where did I imply that the ebola outbreak was in Kenya? Where they affected by the ebola outbreak or not?

Nowhere, you didn't imply it. You wrote it.

Also don't forget that Kenya has seen it's fair share of negative events like Ebola (already mentioned earlier) and the repeated terrorist attacks

Fuel stop? Yeah, cause that doesn't add costs and complications to the operation...
20-minute fuel stop?? Yeah, right.
Seriously, do you think your idea of an option appeals more to high-yielding PAX than a nonstop 787 to LHR??