According to JAL president Yoshiharu Ueki, JAL is looking to expand its international operations before the Rugby World Cup and Tokyo Olympics, and although he doesn't name any specific aircraft, Bloomberg claims they're mulling additional A350s and the routes are in North America and India. From what the president himself said it could be any aircraft and any route, but more A350s does make sense. They have 18 A359 and 13 A35K orders with 25 options, and also 25 787 options on top of a sizeable fleet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... 350s-video

I could see them restarting LAS. I'm kinda surprised they haven't done so already. As for new destinations, I could see MIA and PHL. In the long term, I could eventually see them adding BNA.

Well, going over their fleet, JL has 28x 772, 77E and 773s. Exercising all A350 options replaces all those aircraft, with the 77W still active.

The 787 options could be used to retire the 767 further.

787fan8 wrote:

I could see them restarting LAS. I'm kinda surprised they haven't done so already. As for new destinations, I could see MIA and PHL. In the long term, I could eventually see them adding BNA.

In terms of the U.S., I agree that both MIA and PHL are quite plausible given the JV connectivity. I also think SEA is very possible, and potentially also PDX. BNA seems like a stretch.

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

PDX is a low hanging fruit. With few (and shrinking) onward connections at NRT for DL, the DL PDX-NRT would be at a disadvantage in competing with a JAL PDX-NRT flight.

YYZ?

keesje wrote:

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

Sydney?
JAL have been operating to Sydney for years ...
But further Australian expansion is expected with Perth currently wooing both JAL and ANA.... And traffic between the two nations expanding by double digit growth over the past few years.
As for aircraft, maybe the Dreamliner 10 may get some love from JAL this time around, for domestic and regional expansion while the A350 duo focus on longer range routes? Also, have been any whispers about JAL ordering MAXs or Neos to replace their admittedly youngish 737-800s? Either type could open some interesting long and thin international routes for JAL, similar to ANA's now-aborted 737-700 flights to Mumbai.
Cheers,
Bunumuring

MrHMSH wrote:

According to JAL president Yoshiharu Ueki, JAL is looking to expand its international operations before the Rugby World Cup and Tokyo Olympics, and although he doesn't name any specific aircraft, Bloomberg claims they're mulling additional A350s and the routes are in North America and India. From what the president himself said it could be any aircraft and any route, but more A350s does make sense. They have 18 A359 and 13 A35K orders with 25 options, and also 25 787 options on top of a sizeable fleet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20 ... 350s-video

Seems that Bloomberg could be behind the times since on September 20, JAL announced an option conversion for 4 more 788's.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2017-09-20- ... reamliners

That will expand their fleet to 49 787's of which 35 are now delivered with the outstanding firm order being 10 789's and the 4 new 788's per the link above.

keesje wrote:

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

Well I flew on a JL 77W from SYD - NRT last year, soooo....

Instead of replacing the 777s, they soldier on a couple more years to say 2021 and beyond. All the A350s delivered through 2020 are used for expansion.
Nothing rocket science about it. Except for some of domestic 772 or 773 which may cycle out during this period, the int'l 777s have plenty of life, if need be.

bunumuring wrote:

But further Australian expansion is expected with Perth currently wooing both JAL and ANA.... And traffic between the two nations expanding by double digit growth over the past few years.

Indeed - IMO, there is huge potential for further growth in the Japan - Australasia corridor.

Australia
In 2015-16, Japan was Australia's third-largest trading partner and second-largest export market. Japan was also Australia's second largest in-bound direct foreign investor in 2015. Two-way goods and services trade between Australia and Japan was valued at a whopping AUD 60.3 billion in 2015-16.

On the tourism front, Japan is Australia's sixth-largest inbound market, with over 382,000 visitors from Japan in 2016 (representing double digit growth). Meanwhile, some 358,600 Australians are estimated to have visited Japan in 2016, and Japan overtook Singapore in May 2017 to become Australians’ seventh most popular destination.

Air traffic is booming. JL recently opened NRT - MEL, while QF has also opened or announced NRT - MEL, NRT - BNE and KIX - SYD in recent years. JL still has the potential to add NRT - PER (the WA government are courting such a flight) and a flight to Queensland (be it NRT - BNE, NRT - OOL or NRT - CNS, even if seasonal), and to boost capacity to SYD.

JL has been in the Australian market for a lot longer than NH has, and can make use of QF's oneworld connections.

See:
- http://dfat.gov.au/geo/japan/pages/japa ... brief.aspx.
- https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/wa-gover ... b88608362z.
- http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017 ... japan-rise.

New Zealand
Japan - New Zealand is another market that should not be overlooked by JL for growth.

Unlike Australia, in which JL competes with NH, JQ and QF, only NZ flies between Japan and New Zealand. JL used to codeshare on NZ's services, but was dumped a few years ago for an NH codeshare instead (with NH and NZ being in Star Alliance). Since then, NZ has increased flights to Tokyo (with new flights to HND), and re-opened KIX.

Japan is New Zealand’s third largest source of overseas students, and its fourth largest source of tourists (with more than 100,000 Japanese arrivals in the year to July 2017). Japan is also New Zealand's fifth largest source of foreign direct investment. Once the TPP is signed, this trade will further increase.

JL could either return to AKL, or serve CHC (many Asian airlines have been evaluating and/or opening seasonal CHC services, like CX, CI and OZ).

MrHMSH wrote:

before the Rugby World Cup

New flights to Australia and New Zealand would indeed align well with Japan hosting the Rugby World Cup in 2019.

Cheers,

C.

I definately think that PER could be a big contender, JL was looking at both MEL and PER seriously before choosing to launch MEL. This time round, I think that there is a strong possibility that JL will look at PER favorably.

AUS-NRT anyone?

keesje wrote:

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

BER? Before they ever operate BER they are joining NH at DUS. This route had been operated in the past. Even MUC would be a better option before BER. BER is leisure oriented and as far I can understand that is not the target audience JL is aiming to serve.

¿Maybe MAD?....the route in IB is working very well.

Airbus must have quite a few productions slots open what with the AA and UA deferrals, if JAL wanted either the 359 or 351 earlier.

SQ22 wrote:

keesje wrote:

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

BER? Before they ever operate BER they are joining NH at DUS. This route had been operated in the past. Even MUC would be a better option before BER. BER is leisure oriented and as far I can understand that is not the target audience JL is aiming to serve.

Until recently AB's presence would make it a One World connection hub.Now it's just another Star Alliance stronghold.

SQ22 wrote:

keesje wrote:

Rome, Berlin and Amsterdam might get (re) connected. SYD, MIA..

BER? Before they ever operate BER they are joining NH at DUS. This route had been operated in the past. Even MUC would be a better option before BER. BER is leisure oriented and as far I can understand that is not the target audience JL is aiming to serve.

True, but Berlin is changing fast & becoming Germany's biggest cultural capital, by a wide margin : new architecture all over ( the new central station is a landmark, most of the Government buildings are new & stunning ), umpteen world-level museums, 3-4 philharmonic orchestras, parks & canals. Certainly not what the usual business premium pax go after, but the kind of destination the booming Japanese 3rd age appreciate.

They would need to hire a lot of pilots before they can expand as JL has a pilot shortage.

Boeing778X wrote:

Well, going over their fleet, JL has 28x 772, 77E and 773s. Exercising all A350 options replaces all those aircraft, with the 77W still active.

The 787 options could be used to retire the 767 further.

JL has 767's that are less than 10 years old, they will be around for some time.

OW hub PHL is a bigger market than non OW hub BOS which has multiple Asian flights incl JAL. I do not understand this unless BOS has more premium fliers

SEA/PDX are already crowded markets but if they’re willing to bulk up their AS partnership they’d be a strong competitor. People have also brought up PHL, which I think could work with a 787 and the strength of the AA hub there. The airport would likely offer generous incentives for the first few years as well.

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

OW hub PHL is a bigger market than non OW hub BOS which has multiple Asian flights incl JAL. I do not understand this unless BOS has more premium fliers

BOS-Asia is a much larger local market than PHL-Asia. Even being a OW hub there's a reason PHL doesn't have non-stop passenger service to Asia.

Please share your source that claims PHL is larger.

Direct to/from Miami better have good leg space.
One long flight but I can’t wait to give it a try.

commavia wrote:

787fan8 wrote:

I could see them restarting LAS. I'm kinda surprised they haven't done so already. As for new destinations, I could see MIA and PHL. In the long term, I could eventually see them adding BNA.

In terms of the U.S., I agree that both MIA and PHL are quite plausible given the JV connectivity. I also think SEA is very possible, and potentially also PDX. BNA seems like a stretch.

SEA will last.

clrd4t8koff wrote:

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

OW hub PHL is a bigger market than non OW hub BOS which has multiple Asian flights incl JAL. I do not understand this unless BOS has more premium fliers

BOS-Asia is a much larger local market than PHL-Asia. Even being a OW hub there's a reason PHL doesn't have non-stop passenger service to Asia.

Please share your source that claims PHL is larger.

PHL is 1.2 million more than BOS by MSA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template: ... ted_States

My presumption is the high end health care, many many universities and tech make BOS more desirable, though that disparity in population is still pretty substantial. PHL might leak a little to EWR as well.

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

OW hub PHL is a bigger market than non OW hub BOS which has multiple Asian flights incl JAL. I do not understand this unless BOS has more premium fliers

BOS-Asia is a much larger local market than PHL-Asia. Even being a OW hub there's a reason PHL doesn't have non-stop passenger service to Asia.

Please share your source that claims PHL is larger.

PHL is 1.2 million more than BOS by MSA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template: ... ted_States

My presumption is the high end health care, many many universities and tech make BOS more desirable, though that disparity in population is still pretty substantial. PHL might leak a little to EWR as well.

Yes, while PHL MSA may be larger, what airlines look at is the CSA, which BOS is larger:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

Many more factors (some you've listed) play a role. BOS has much more demand to Asia than PHL. People think that just because places like PHL and MIA are OW hubs they should have flights to Asia. Clearly the airlines know more than we do and there's a reason they're not flying those routes.

PixelPilot wrote:

Direct to/from Miami better have good leg space.
One long flight but I can’t wait to give it a try.

Did I miss something about JL announcing flights to MIA?

clrd4t8koff wrote:

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

clrd4t8koff wrote:

BOS-Asia is a much larger local market than PHL-Asia. Even being a OW hub there's a reason PHL doesn't have non-stop passenger service to Asia.

Please share your source that claims PHL is larger.

PHL is 1.2 million more than BOS by MSA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template: ... ted_States

My presumption is the high end health care, many many universities and tech make BOS more desirable, though that disparity in population is still pretty substantial. PHL might leak a little to EWR as well.

Yes, while PHL MSA may be larger, what airlines look at is the CSA, which BOS is larger:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_statistical_area

Many more factors (some you've listed) play a role. BOS has much more demand to Asia than PHL. People think that just because places like PHL and MIA are OW hubs they should have flights to Asia. Clearly the airlines know more than we do and there's a reason they're not flying those routes.

The airlines look at demand. The CSA is a joke. PHL will essentially become part of the NYC CSA soon. Considering places that are essentially twice as far from NYC as they are PHL are already part of the NYC CSA.

I'm sure many of airlines now flying to Boston had data about BOS originating paxs connecting in various points to Asia. But they did not want to take a risk with the 772 or 744. All the while, the BOS market blossomed in the past 20 years with a tech/healthcare sector that really rivals Silicon Valley. So many airlines jumped in with the 787 or the market grew enough to support the 77W. I suspect the PHL market can support a flight or two to Asia, but it is no where near where BOS is currently.

PHX would do well!

Tel Aviv
And then another airline will beat EL AL to opening a new route

clrd4t8koff wrote:

PixelPilot wrote:

Direct to/from Miami better have good leg space.
One long flight but I can’t wait to give it a try.

Did I miss something about JL announcing flights to MIA?

No announcement but I have read they are in talks with MIA. Discussion started in May 17 I recon.

As saturated SEA-Asia is right now, I'm still hoping they will start service to SEA.

Clearly the airlines know more than we do and there's a reason they're not flying those routes.

The argument that if a route is not operated it doesn't make sense means that every time a new route is opened like LHR-BNA, the airline is making an irrational decision it will regret later.
Or that no new routes will be opened, because the current market is correct.

With JAL's recent partnership with AS, I think a SEA expansion would be well received.

It's interesting how the national airline of a country with Japan's prominence and wealth doesn't have a network as widespread as you may think. Or maybe it shares traffic with ANA.

spiah wrote:

With JAL's recent partnership with AS, I think a SEA expansion would be well received.

While the partnership could help JL, SEA-TYO is already well served with NH & DL. I think JL entering the market at this point would be just a pissing match between the 3 and yields would be trash (if they're not close to it already).

RichardWelling wrote:

They would need to hire a lot of pilots before they can expand as JL has a pilot shortage.

I think they can fix that with expatriate pilots who are often taller than local JL pilots.

zeke wrote:

RichardWelling wrote:

They would need to hire a lot of pilots before they can expand as JL has a pilot shortage.

I think they can fix that with expatriate pilots who are often taller than local JL pilots.

Those expats tend to have more girth too to really fill out the pilot shortage.

I absolutely believe PHL can support a direct flight to Asia. The issue is one that hurts PHL demand, especially internationally, in general. NYC's airports are cheaper to fly out of - sometimes by hundreds of dollars. In general, most of the Philly metro has easy access to NYC - EWR is less than 1.5 hours from half the metro. With cheaper flights out of NYC and the option of a direct instead of connection, PHL has a ton of leakage. A direct flight to Asia will take some time to be profitable, but ultimately will probably command a good fare premium over flights out of NYC.

DWC wrote:

True, but Berlin is changing fast & becoming Germany's biggest cultural capital, by a wide margin : new architecture all over ( the new central station is a landmark, most of the Government buildings are new & stunning ), umpteen world-level museums, 3-4 philharmonic orchestras, parks & canals. Certainly not what the usual business premium pax go after, but the kind of destination the booming Japanese 3rd age appreciate.

Sorry, but that is utter nonsense. You have little or no clue what you are talking about... Germany is a federal republic made of many different types of regions/cultures and people. Your argumentation is also utterly flawed, since apart from federal government, nothing much is happening and the city itself is cashless and chronically inefficient. Nothing much is happening, just look at the airport project.
Most major cities have several orchestras and are culturally more interesting to seasoned travellers - even tiny and misbuilt Frankfurt. And most of the business is happening in southern Germany.

believeinflight wrote:

It's interesting how the national airline of a country with Japan's prominence and wealth doesn't have a network as widespread as you may think. Or maybe it shares traffic with ANA.

JAL used to be Japan’s largest international carrier by quite some margin for a while but it was over eager international expansion that landed them in bankruptcy a few years ago. Some of the conditions imposed by the Japanese government in their very visible and politically embarrassing restructuring entailed cutting a lot of international and putting the brakes on further growth, restrictions which have only now began to loosen. In the meanwhile, ANA has had the chance to fill most of that void.

clrd4t8koff wrote:

spiah wrote:

With JAL's recent partnership with AS, I think a SEA expansion would be well received.

While the partnership could help JL, SEA-TYO is already well served with NH & DL. I think JL entering the market at this point would be just a pissing match between the 3 and yields would be trash (if they're not close to it already).

That is true, but we did have three airlines serving SEA-NRT not too long ago...DL, NH and UA. Obviously, UA pulled out. So I can realistically see JL jumping into the market because of the AS partnership. Maybe HND instead of NRT.

PHL is frequently overlooked due to NYC bleed, (also IAD on the southern metro edges 2 - 2.5 hrs). A very strong University base U Penn, Temple, Villanova, Drexel, plus many more, bleed again with Princeton and Rutgers to EWR, A nonstop would pick up some of that loss. A strong med-tech base also. Seems people just think MSA and the Liberty Bell.

880dc8707 wrote:

PHL is frequently overlooked due to NYC bleed, (also IAD on the southern metro edges 2 - 2.5 hrs). A very strong University base U Penn, Temple, Villanova, Drexel, plus many more, bleed again with Princeton and Rutgers to EWR, A nonstop would pick up some of that loss. A strong med-tech base also. Seems people just think MSA and the Liberty Bell.

Also, don't forget that JL is an One-World Alliance member with AA.

My hope is for PRG given the unmet need between Prague and Japan and strong business ties with CZ.

terrificturk wrote:

DWC wrote:

True, but Berlin is changing fast & becoming Germany's biggest cultural capital, by a wide margin : new architecture all over ( the new central station is a landmark, most of the Government buildings are new & stunning ), umpteen world-level museums, 3-4 philharmonic orchestras, parks & canals. Certainly not what the usual business premium pax go after, but the kind of destination the booming Japanese 3rd age appreciate.

Sorry, but that is utter nonsense. You have little or no clue what you are talking about... Germany is a federal republic made of many different types of regions/cultures and people. Your argumentation is also utterly flawed, since apart from federal government, nothing much is happening and the city itself is cashless and chronically inefficient. Nothing much is happening, just look at the airport project.
Most major cities have several orchestras and are culturally more interesting to seasoned travellers - even tiny and misbuilt Frankfurt. And most of the business is happening in southern Germany.

Well, my prediction is, when the new BER open JL will fly there.

Of course, we all know that by that time, JL is probably starting the retirement of their A350

ShinyAndChrome wrote:

believeinflight wrote:

It's interesting how the national airline of a country with Japan's prominence and wealth doesn't have a network as widespread as you may think. Or maybe it shares traffic with ANA.

JAL used to be Japan’s largest international carrier by quite some margin for a while but it was over eager international expansion that landed them in bankruptcy a few years ago. Some of the conditions imposed by the Japanese government in their very visible and politically embarrassing restructuring entailed cutting a lot of international and putting the brakes on further growth, restrictions which have only now began to loosen. In the meanwhile, ANA has had the chance to fill most of that void.

I believe restriction were placed until 2015 or so that JL simply cannot expand unless they go through a long approval process (in another word, TONS of red tape). Then you also have government literally favoring ANA for everything (Namely HND slots). It's also why JL didn't moved their JFK flight to HND until 2016 or so.

880dc8707 wrote:

PHL is frequently overlooked due to NYC bleed, (also IAD on the southern metro edges 2 - 2.5 hrs). A very strong University base U Penn, Temple, Villanova, Drexel, plus many more, bleed again with Princeton and Rutgers to EWR, A nonstop would pick up some of that loss. A strong med-tech base also. Seems people just think MSA and the Liberty Bell.

the affluent sectors of PHL to the west and south are not good candidates for EWR and would likely pay the premium for non stop. If BOS can manage NRT, PVG, PEK and HKG flights I'd think the slightly smaller PHL could handle NRT

DaufuskieGuy wrote:

880dc8707 wrote:

PHL is frequently overlooked due to NYC bleed, (also IAD on the southern metro edges 2 - 2.5 hrs). A very strong University base U Penn, Temple, Villanova, Drexel, plus many more, bleed again with Princeton and Rutgers to EWR, A nonstop would pick up some of that loss. A strong med-tech base also. Seems people just think MSA and the Liberty Bell.

the affluent sectors of PHL to the west and south are not good candidates for EWR and would likely pay the premium for non stop. If BOS can manage NRT, PVG, PEK and HKG flights I'd think the slightly smaller PHL could handle NRT

Personal opinion on PHL is that they would probably get a flight to East Asia soon. Remember, BOS TPAC are all fairly recent (NRT is only since 2012, HKG since 2014, PEK since 2014, and PVG since 2015), just give it some time as more right-sized plane (Namely, 787 or A350) comes in.