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NZ321
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:30 am

If QR can't profitably put the A380 onto AKL then I guess we will be seeing the 77L at AKL for the foreseeable future. They don't have any aircraft on order which can replace the B77L AFAIK and operate such a long haul route and the 77L fleet are still relatively young (well shy of 10 years average age). And I guess they can easily convert some of their options / orders to A359ULR if it comes to it.

Because of EY's recent issues re investments in other loss making carriers and their current interline arrangements with NZ I don't see them as likely to fly to AKL directly or enter the Tasman.

I agree that EK's withdrawal while not unexpected is disappointing from the point of view of competition and options across the ditch. Also echo the comments above about how comfortable the A380 is from a passenger perspective. And like others I cringe and the thought of a cosy duopoly like the one we all remember not so long ago. Just have to hope that other carriers jump in or that QF and NZ step up the competition. Should QF and AA get approval for their JV then this could tip the balance and we might just see a daily AA flight to the US but seems highly unlikely AA would enter the Tasman and I'm not sure who the other possible players on the Tasman could be. CI have pulled back somewhat. PR are now going direct to AKL. Chinese carriers are all into NZ direct. Maybe we will see some more action from VA given their separation from NZ. Interesting times.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:34 am

I might add with HA up to 5x weekly HNL-AKL and NZ significantly expanding HNL in 2018 we are seeing quite a significant capacity increase and highest levels of frequency for many years between AKL-HNL. Hopefully this will lead to more competitive fares via HNL.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:02 pm

Out of interest does anyone know what's become of the Vanuatu runway situation? Presumably it's been rectified but NZ hasn't returned. Is this correct?
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:32 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Just have to hope that other carriers jump in or that QF and NZ step up the competition

If we look at EK closely, it is a strong player in four markets out of New Zealand:
- Australia
- India
- Africa
- Europe

IMO, there is room for further replacement capacity from some of these markets:

Australia
The following carriers might like to 'test the waters' with stops via Australia, before considering non-stop AKL flights (like TG, PR and others have done):

- GA extend its CGK - SYD service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Indonesia - New Zealand services)
- OD extend its DPS - BNE service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Indonesia - New Zealand services)
- BR extend its TPE - BNE service to AKL, as it used to (given CI's sustained presence in New Zealand)
- PX extend its POM - BNE service to AKL (given it has previously talked about opening AKL)
- 5J extend its MNL - SYD service to AKL (given how much growth PR has seen out of AKL)
- VN extend its SGN - SYD service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Vietnam - New Zealand services)
- TZ extend its SIN - OOL or SIN - SYD servces to AKL (given D7's sustained presence in New Zealand)

Alternatively, we might see TT commencing Trans-Tasman operations (as a platform to compete against JQ).

India
- AI commence AKL services, either non-stop, or via Australia (an AKL tag might allow it to increase its SYD or MEL frequencies to daily)
- 9W commence BOM / DEL - SYD / MEL - AKL services (given that 9W has an extensive partnership with QF already, and to compete with AI and UL)
- UL extend its new CMB - MEL service to AKL (though, that would then be a two-stop offering to India, and not competitive)
- SQ upgrade SIN - AKL to year-round A380 services (given that SQ is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)
- D7 upgrade KUL - OOL - AKL to a non-stop KUL - AKL service (given that AK connects well to India from KUL)
- MH upgrade KUL - AKL to an A350 service (given that MH is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)
- TG upgrade BKK - AKL to a year-round daily service (given that TG is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)

Africa
- ET commence Australian operations, and extend these operations to New Zealand

Europe
- EY commence AKL services, either non-stop, or via Australia (though, this is unlikely, as EY is not in expansion mode)
- QR upgrade frequencies on DOH - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes)
- EK upgrade frequencies on DXB - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes)
- SQ upgrade frequencies on SIN - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes) - NZ partner
- CX upgrade year-round frequencies on HKG - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes) - NZ partner
- QF upgrade PER - AKL to a year-round service (which could connect to QF's PER - LHR and EK's PER - DXB services)
- QF or EK commence a daily SIN - AKL service (to connect to QF's SIN - LHR and EK's SIN - DXB services)

mariner wrote:
My inference would be that you know because either you work for Air NZ or have strong connections there. I understand you might want to be coy, but I can't think of any other inference I could draw which would be a satisfactory response to the situation

I said that you can infer that the maps and disclaimers were not checked, and then explained why directly underneath:

"The "Kia Ora" magazine and its destinations section were totally re-designed this year, in which the various inaccurate maps, as well as the two inaccurate disclaimers had to have been edited, formatted and placed onto various drafts and proofs by Bauer Media, prior to initial publication. Had the maps been checked, at least some of the 20+ errors would have been picked up (1 or 2 errors can be overlooked, but not 20+), and either those errors would have been addressed, or the disclaimer that all routes were correct as at publishing would have been amended to say something akin to the map being indicative only. Likewise, had the disclaimer been checked, the maps would have been checked too, so as to avoid liability from misrepresentation under the disclaimer."

I never said that you can infer that I work at NZ.

For the record, I do not work at NZ, I do not have "inside information," and I am not trying to be "coy" with the forum.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:58 pm

NZ321 wrote:
If QR can't profitably put the A380 onto AKL then I guess we will be seeing the 77L at AKL for the foreseeable future. They don't have any aircraft on order which can replace the B77L AFAIK and operate such a long haul route and the 77L fleet are still relatively young (well shy of 10 years average age). And I guess they can easily convert some of their options / orders to A359ULR if it comes to it.

Because of EY's recent issues re investments in other loss making carriers and their current interline arrangements with NZ I don't see them as likely to fly to AKL directly or enter the Tasman.

I agree that EK's withdrawal while not unexpected is disappointing from the point of view of competition and options across the ditch. Also echo the comments above about how comfortable the A380 is from a passenger perspective. And like others I cringe and the thought of a cosy duopoly like the one we all remember not so long ago. Just have to hope that other carriers jump in or that QF and NZ step up the competition. Should QF and AA get approval for their JV then this could tip the balance and we might just see a daily AA flight to the US but seems highly unlikely AA would enter the Tasman and I'm not sure who the other possible players on the Tasman could be. CI have pulled back somewhat. PR are now going direct to AKL. Chinese carriers are all into NZ direct. Maybe we will see some more action from VA given their separation from NZ. Interesting times.


QR have 10 778's on order.

Remember Planemanofnz there has been a lot of expansion to NZ lately so some of the markets you mention may need to allow the current capacity to be absorbed mainly Europe I think, EK pulling back only really affects the Tasman in a big way, the other markets are covered by its non stop to DXB ex AKL.

TG will be daily year round again next month with 789's finally.

MH are going A332 and all flights ex AKL in the evening, these aircraft are ex Air Berlin and have a similar capacity to the current A333 and upcoming A359, less J more Y and the A359 has a row of F.

D7 have talked about non stop KUL-AKL, not sure where they are at but I'd expect it at some point.

As to the likes of CX they offer 2 daily for DEC-FEB with A359/77W which they can fill for that period, may be they will add to this back to 10 weekly which they have done in the past in NS.

And I'm sure we will continue to get new carriers but not as many as we have had barring maybe a few more Chinese ones.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:22 pm

planemanofnz wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Just have to hope that other carriers jump in or that QF and NZ step up the competition

If we look at EK closely, it is a strong player in four markets out of New Zealand:
- Australia
- India
- Africa
- Europe

IMO, there is room for further replacement capacity from some of these markets:

Australia
The following carriers might like to 'test the waters' with stops via Australia, before considering non-stop AKL flights (like TG, PR and others have done):

- GA extend its CGK - SYD service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Indonesia - New Zealand services)
- OD extend its DPS - BNE service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Indonesia - New Zealand services)
- BR extend its TPE - BNE service to AKL, as it used to (given CI's sustained presence in New Zealand)
- PX extend its POM - BNE service to AKL (given it has previously talked about opening AKL)
- 5J extend its MNL - SYD service to AKL (given how much growth PR has seen out of AKL)
- VN extend its SGN - SYD service to AKL (given the lack of year-round Vietnam - New Zealand services)
- TZ extend its SIN - OOL or SIN - SYD servces to AKL (given D7's sustained presence in New Zealand)

Alternatively, we might see TT commencing Trans-Tasman operations (as a platform to compete against JQ).

India
- AI commence AKL services, either non-stop, or via Australia (an AKL tag might allow it to increase its SYD or MEL frequencies to daily)
- 9W commence BOM / DEL - SYD / MEL - AKL services (given that 9W has an extensive partnership with QF already, and to compete with AI and UL)
- UL extend its new CMB - MEL service to AKL (though, that would then be a two-stop offering to India, and not competitive)
- SQ upgrade SIN - AKL to year-round A380 services (given that SQ is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)
- D7 upgrade KUL - OOL - AKL to a non-stop KUL - AKL service (given that AK connects well to India from KUL)
- MH upgrade KUL - AKL to an A350 service (given that MH is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)
- TG upgrade BKK - AKL to a year-round daily service (given that TG is a dominant player in the New Zealand - India corridor)

Africa
- ET commence Australian operations, and extend these operations to New Zealand

Europe
- EY commence AKL services, either non-stop, or via Australia (though, this is unlikely, as EY is not in expansion mode)
- QR upgrade frequencies on DOH - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes)
- EK upgrade frequencies on DXB - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes)
- SQ upgrade frequencies on SIN - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes) - NZ partner
- CX upgrade year-round frequencies on HKG - AKL to 10-14x weekly (to offer more extensive connections to 1x daily European routes) - NZ partner
- QF upgrade PER - AKL to a year-round service (which could connect to QF's PER - LHR and EK's PER - DXB services)
- QF or EK commence a daily SIN - AKL service (to connect to QF's SIN - LHR and EK's SIN - DXB services)

Interesting analysis. A few thoughts:

GA - unlikely given recent news of their financial difficulties - they are not in expansion mode. They have significant problems to fix. Agree NZ-Indonesia needs a sustained direct year-round service. Come on NZ.
OD - is a real possibility via Australia. I agree.
TZ - is interesting. But I suspect that is cannibalising the mainline offering given the seasonal nature of NZ but agree this is a possibility as TZ are in expansion mode.I suspect more likely is TZ into WLG.
BR - not holding my breath here. They tried twice and retreated. I suspect that if they come back it will be direct to feed their growing direct long haul operation to Europe. Could be 3x weekly initially and then expanded service if it proves profitable. Maybe A333?
5J - I think NZ is too small for them to consider at the mo given PR already on the route with direct wide body service and reasonable fares.
VN - could be distinct possibility via Australia IMHO even direct. Have no info on how they are doing financially / yields wise. Are they a government owned carrier or private? I suspect the former.
UL - no chance - not enough stability in their network or results to risk an entry into NZ or Tasma and they are not a reliable performer yet IMHO although have flown them business class and it was fine despite the delay of several hours.
TG - has already upgraded AKL to daily year round AFAIK effective shortly with 789 service which I am using in December and January.
MH - A359 x 3 already spoken for on KUL-LHR. I expect the other aircraft to be prioritised for SYD and MEL and maybe Japan. A332 solution from AB is the perfect out for them given the A333 is stretched to AKL. Highly likely if they order the NEO we will see it in AKL. Agree with your analysis of AKL-India market. MH carries a lot of connection traffic like SIA. Love to see MH regain the quality of service they were known for. Perhaps we could see an increase in frequency to 10 flights per week?
SQ - They are deeply committed to the NZ market so far (AKL-CHC-WLG). That's why I don't see TZ as a front runner yet. I'm hopeful for more frequency but you could be right that in the interim we see a year-round capacity lift via A380 and then some seasonal service to supplement at peak season Dec-Feb.
D7 - possible. I doubt the durability of their long haul ops tho. Thats why I think they are looking at A359. Allows for a more comfortable 9 abreast config.
AI - I don't reckon given recent financial woes. 9W similarly.
QF - PER-AKL could indeed be a winner. I can't understand why they haven't jumped on this one before now. With new service to LHR and rumoured CDG this is surely a firm bet.
EK - SIN-AKL I reckon is likely. Either that or another cargo-limited AKL-DXB service which doesn't strike me as filling the void from their recent announcement. Surely they are a lively player in the cargo market with their frequencies to Europe?
QR - could they pull a fast one and re-route via Australia? I hear the concerns re A380 and premium config. I think their CBR service will have an early demise.

What about
AC- YYZ-AKL-SYD?
:)
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:52 pm

Speaking of Trans-Tasman cuts, I wonder how long it will be before LA fly SCL - SYD direct, given their new SCL - MEL service?

If that does happen, I can see SCL - AKL sustaining 3x weekly services from LA - otherwise, NZ will come in, like it did when AR left EZE - AKL.

ZK-NBT wrote:
Remember Planemanofnz there has been a lot of expansion to NZ lately so some of the markets you mention may need to allow the current capacity to be absorbed

To be fair, most of the new capacity to New Zealand has been to China (CA, EU, GS, HU, HX and MU) and North America (HA, UA and AA).

Outside of this, the main capacity increases to New Zealand have just been from D7, PR and QR.

NZ321 wrote:
TZ - is interesting. But I suspect that is cannibalising the mainline offering given the seasonal nature of NZ but agree this is a possibility as TZ are in expansion mode.I suspect more likely is TZ into WLG.

TZ overlaps with SQ at key Australian destinations like SYD, MEL and PER - there is no reason why it could not overlap with SQ at AKL too, particularly given:

- the low-yielding nature of the New Zealand market
- the continued presence of TZ's main competitor - D7 - at AKL

WLG and CHC are not big enough markets to have TZ and SQ - you need one brand, and WLG is probably more suited to SQ (higher yield potential).

NZ321 wrote:
QR - could they pull a fast one and re-route via Australia? I hear the concerns re A380 and premium config. I think their CBR service will have an early demise.

If QR starts to find it hard to fill up its A380s from Australia, but does not want to re-introduce less attractive 777s to these markets (which I would not put past AAB), I can see QR extending one of its SYD or MEL flights to AKL - it would route the higher yielding passengers willing to pay a premium for a direct flight, via DOH, and the lower yielding passengers (like VFR to India), via SYD or MEL, and then DOH, on a two-stop service.

NZ321 wrote:
AC- YYZ-AKL-SYD?

No, as AC already serve SYD.

IMO, we are more likely to see DL commence an ATL / LAX / SEA - AKL - MEL / SYD flight, before AC serves AKL - SYD, and even then, DL is unlikely.

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:11 pm

planemanofnz wrote:

NZ321 wrote:
QR - could they pull a fast one and re-route via Australia? I hear the concerns re A380 and premium config. I think their CBR service will have an early demise.

If QR starts to find it hard to fill up its A380s from Australia, but does not want to re-introduce less attractive 777s to these markets (which I would not put past AAB), I can see QR extending one of its SYD or MEL flights to AKL - it would route the higher yielding passengers willing to pay a premium for a direct flight, via DOH, and the lower yielding passengers (like VFR to India), via SYD or MEL, and then DOH, on a two-stop service.

Cheers,

C.


Under the Australia/Qatar bilateral QR can only operate 21 weekly services to the 4 main airports (BNE,PER,MEL & SYD). They can also operate another 7 weekly frequencies to one of the 4 main airports providing the flight operates via or beyond another airport outside the 4 main airports. QR is operating to CBR so they can operate the 2nd daily SYD, without it, it wouldn't happen. QR also wants to operate a second daily to MEL so the likelihood of those A380's not being filled is remote. I very much doubt you will see QR operate a SYD/MEL flight to AKL
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NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:47 pm

Despite the fact that AC flies direct YVR-SYD, YYZ is AC home base and there is not a direct service from YYZ down-under at present. NZ will shortly be launching ORD and NYC according to previous posts / discussion and AC seem particularly aggressive for international expansion as of late (destinations too numerous to list here). AC and NZ relationship seems to me to echo a bit the SQ-UA relationship. They seem to tolerate one another but with the likes of BNE or MEL, AC sure has cut NZ out of the picture from west coast Canada despite their mediocre on-board product. Interestingly when booking NZ to Seattle I often seem to end up on AS connections rather than AC or UA because the fare is better and the connection time attractive. Yet NZ have no direct interline with AS as far as I know. Hope that changes.

If LA abandon AKL-SCL for direct Australia then it's possible NZ could have a go but my expectation would be for a Star Alliance hub over SCL. So we're back to LIM or GRU. Don't rate the chances of BOG or PTY.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:52 pm

NZ321 wrote:
So we're back to LIM or GRU. Don't rate the chances of BOG or PTY.


Agreed - not BOG or PTY. But I'd give a big quid to see MEX on the route map - one of the most extraordinary countries I've been to.

I've said before, I like the idea of LIM. It's a great jumping-off point for the rest of the continent and every Kiwi I know from Spanish classes wants to go to Machu Picchu, it's why they're learning Spanish.

I agree that GRU would be good, too, but the reason it didn't happen last time (the EZE choice) was that the aircraft would have weight issues on the return from GRU. I'm not technical, so has that been fixed, do you know. would the newer aircraft be more capable?

planemanofnz wrote:
I never said that you can infer that I work at NZ.


Indeed. You left what I could infer wide open.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:21 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Despite the fact that AC flies direct YVR-SYD, YYZ is AC home base and there is not a direct service from YYZ down-under at present. NZ will shortly be launching ORD and NYC according to previous posts / discussion and AC seem particularly aggressive for international expansion as of late (destinations too numerous to list here). AC and NZ relationship seems to me to echo a bit the SQ-UA relationship. They seem to tolerate one another but with the likes of BNE or MEL, AC sure has cut NZ out of the picture from west coast Canada despite their mediocre on-board product. Interestingly when booking NZ to Seattle I often seem to end up on AS connections rather than AC or UA because the fare is better and the connection time attractive. Yet NZ have no direct interline with AS as far as I know. Hope that changes.

If LA abandon AKL-SCL for direct Australia then it's possible NZ could have a go but my expectation would be for a Star Alliance hub over SCL. So we're back to LIM or GRU. Don't rate the chances of BOG or PTY.


Im not sure I get your AC/NZ comments, they wanted a JV or revenue sharing deal a few years ago but got denied, AC are entitled to fly to BNE/MEL what about UA starting IAH-SYD NZ would absolutely no they were going to. I have said and some don't agree but I could see a seasonal AC YVR-AKL service once NZ use the smaller 789 to YVR and need additional capacity, maybe in the long run one of them can add YYZ but it almost as far as NYC.

LA won't abandon AKL even if they do go non stop SYD-SCL, they might use a smaller 788 to AKL which has connections to CX. Which can be done via Australia but it's a bigger local market to tap into there. It was often said LA could fly LIM-AKL which they never have, they may have decided MEL non stop was better.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:31 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
LA won't abandon AKL even if they do go non stop SYD-SCL, they might use a smaller 788 to AKL which has connections to CX. Which can be done via Australia but it's a bigger local market to tap into there.

In reality, how many connections are there through AKL between LA and CX? IMO, the number would be minimal. Even so, LA do not need AKL just for CX connections - it has LAX and JFK for that, and SYD and MEL too, if needed.

LA might view AKL has being too difficult to compete in, now that NZ has entered the market - indeed, fares have come down dramatically with AKL - EZE. I can see LA routing New Zealand passengers through MEL or SYD on QF.

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:01 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
LA won't abandon AKL even if they do go non stop SYD-SCL, they might use a smaller 788 to AKL which has connections to CX. Which can be done via Australia but it's a bigger local market to tap into there.

In reality, how many connections are there through AKL between LA and CX? IMO, the number would be minimal. Even so, LA do not need AKL just for CX connections - it has LAX and JFK for that, and SYD and MEL too, if needed.

LA might view AKL has being too difficult to compete in, now that NZ has entered the market - indeed, fares have come down dramatically with AKL - EZE. I can see LA routing New Zealand passengers through MEL or SYD on QF.

Cheers,

C.


I agree it wouldn't be a huge amount of CX connections, they do use JFK/LAX as well. LA dropping AKL is an odd thing for you to say, would you then complain about the lack of competition like the Tasman now with EK dropping it? I could see LA adding AKL-BNE or having an AKL terminating service that connects to the QF services for those that want to.

I don't think they will send NZ pax via SYD/MEL.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:58 am

To what extent do people think that some of the Trans-Tasman routes to secondary New Zealand cities might be make a come-back in the near future?

I know that many of these routes have been tried before (by Air New Zealand, Freedom Air, K2000 Airlines, Kiwi Travel International Airlines, OzJet and others), and that all have failed (except DUD - BNE, which is served by Virgin Australia).

However, population and wealth growth in some of these cities have since boomed (like, in TRG), in-bound tourism to New Zealand has also been booming (up 16% in 2016), the price of oil is low, and new aircraft that are being delivered to the region's airlines are more fuel-efficient than ever before.

In addition, some airports are presently being expanded and renovated, like TRG - see: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty ... d=11921880.

Perhaps TT might explore these routes?

Image

AFAIK, all of these airports have sufficient runway lengths to allow for Trans-Tasman flights, and all have received such flights in the past (except NPE and IVC).

For reference, some pictures are below:

HLZ

Image

TRG - I know that K2000 had scheduled TRG - Australia flights, but I am unclear whether they went ahead

Image

ROT

Image

PMR

Image

NPE - has not had scheduled Trans-Tasman flights before, but has received jets in the past

Image

DUD

Image

IVC - has not had scheduled Trans-Tasman flights before, but has received jets in the past

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:16 am

There are too many empty seats every day in/out of AKL for most carriers for there not to be further rationalisation. Airlines that are bothering to have daily but seasonal routes make good money, without then having to use those profits to subsidise the low seasons in AKL - that's what makes New Zealand so marginal as a market except Late Nov-Mar.
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:16 am

planemanofnz wrote:
To what extent do people think that some of the Trans-Tasman routes to secondary New Zealand cities might be make a come-back in the near future?

I was thinking the same thing this morning - I wonder to what extent the withdrawal of Emirates will affect the dynamics of the trans-Tasman market and allow more opportunities for service to secondary cities on both sides.

As for you laundry list of airports, I guess any are possible, some are definitely more likely, and I would imagine it probably wouldn't be viable for all to be offered; I would guess more an either/or scenario. If New Plymouth gets a longer runway, I would add it to your list...

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:44 am

Aside from expanded Trans-Tasman services, I wonder if any of these secondary cities could support seasonal flights to the Pacific Islands too.

In the past, HLZ and PMR sustained Freedom Air flights to NAN.

Fiji Airways has a smaller 737-700, which might be perfect for re-instating some of these flights - it could offer Asian and North American connections too.

Fiji Airways is not afraid to offer low-frequency flights to secondary cities (look at its new NAN - ADL service, as an example), though, it was not successful in some smaller cities in the past (like CBR, though, that was nearly 15 years ago, and times have changed).

Image

VirginFlyer wrote:
I guess any are possible, some are definitely more likely, and I would imagine it probably wouldn't be viable for all to be offered; I would guess more an either/or scenario.

Absolutely - IMO, the HLZ - ROT - TRG catchment area should be able to sustain some seasonal flights.

In particular, TRG would be interesting, because:

- Tauranga has overtaken Dunedin's population of 127,000, clocking in at 128,200 people in 2016 (growing by 48,400 since 1996)
- Tauranga's GDP grew by 4.4 percent in 2016, and the Western Bay district's by 6.0 percent in the same period (the national average was 2.5 percent)
- Figures showed 573 new businesses set up in Tauranga in 2016, four percent more than 2015 and higher than the national average of 1.6 percent
- In 2016, both Hamilton and Tauranga's house prices surged by nearly 30 percent (among the fastest in the country)

The "wealth effect" is clearly evident, with multi-million dollar shopping malls and other entertainment facilities in the region under construction.

VirginFlyer wrote:
If New Plymouth gets a longer runway, I would add it to your list...

Yes, and Nelson too - but, neither are likely to receive a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.
Last edited by planemanofnz on Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:46 am

planemanofnz wrote:
To what extent do people think that some of the Trans-Tasman routes to secondary New Zealand cities might be make a come-back in the near future?



No chance!

Yes the population of these cities have increased (some quite signficantly) but also remember the size of tasman aircraft have also increased (much faster than population). The minimum sized aircraft is now a 168-seat NZ A320. None of those airports currently have border processing which would be expensive to add for a 2/week service. Airlines dont have an abundance of aircraft or pilots to serve these places so why would they waste their time on something so small. Plus most of those airports are within 3 hours drive of a major gateway (HLZ, TRG, ROT, PMR, IVC) and are getting closer due to significant investment in road infrastructure, and the others have really good air connectivity to one. The markets are just not big enough to float their boat.

The reality is New Zealand is served well internationally by 4 gateway airports at each end of each islands (Ok CHC is not really at the end, but I guess WLG is ;-) ).

I also really fear for DUD-BNE if NZ/VA decide not to renew their partnership.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:51 am

planemanofnz wrote:
In particular, TRG would be interesting, because:

- Tauranga has overtaken Dunedin's population of 127,000, clocking in at 128,200 people in 2016 (growing by 48,400 since 1996)
- Tauranga's GDP grew by 4.4 percent in 2016, and the Western Bay district's by 6.0 percent in the same period (the national average was 2.5 percent)
- Figures showed 573 new businesses set up in Tauranga in 2016, four percent more than 2015 and higher than the national average of 1.6 percent
- In 2016, both Hamilton and Tauranga's house prices surged by nearly 30 percent (among the fastest in the country)

The "wealth" effect is clearly evident, with multi-million dollar shopping malls and other entertainment facilities in the region under construction.



Look at Newcastle in Australia as a similar case study. Catchment population of anywhere between 500,000 and 900,000 depending on where you draw the line, but try as they might no intl services due to big brother 2.5 hours down the road....
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:12 am

planemanofnz wrote:

VirginFlyer wrote:
If New Plymouth gets a longer runway, I would add it to your list...

Yes, and Nelson too - but, neither are likely to receive a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.


A runway extension is planned for NPL in the near future, initially to 1500m and later to 1700m. The 1500m would ensure that the ATR services can operate without restrictions year round. Jets aren't really wanted as it would require a change to the noise boundaries in the area. However the terminal rebuild is the priority at the moment over a runway extension.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:17 am

a7ala wrote:
Look at Newcastle in Australia as a similar case study. Catchment population of anywhere between 500,000 and 900,000 depending on where you draw the line, but try as they might no intl services due to big brother 2.5 hours down the road....

I take your point, though NTL is a little bit different - it does offer holiday destinations (like OOL), as well as competition (JQ, QF and VA).

Further, NTL does not have much in-bound tourism potential, unlike the likes of ROT.

Cheers,

C.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:21 am

The partnership with VA has been re-signed, so I don't expect anything to secondary New Zealand until such time as NZ/VA decide not to re-sign next time (or such time as VA actually cuts back international to make some money). There are only 3 candidates who might be interested, NZ.TT,JQ. TT is an outsider due to VA's lack of vision and investment funds.
I don't see it happening anytime soon to be honest,

Hubbing is still the method most major non-LCC airlines make money, NZ will always hub through AKL and that is the reality until NZ reaches a size that can justify decent economy of scale (ie: their fleet is large enough that CHC/WLG/TRG can have their own short-haul/long-haul aircraft base. Like DUS or HAM has compared to FRA for LH. CHC does not have population density in favour of it. happening currently and I feel that the likes of PMR, NPE, IVC and NSN will see jet service domestically before they get international service (again)
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:23 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Further, NTL does not have much in-bound tourism potential, unlike the likes of ROT.

Destination NSW would disagree with you there: https://www.visitnsw.com/destinations/hunter

V/F
"It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:24 am

The secondary airport international service discussion is my favorite - something I'm very passionate about. I actually plan to do my masters (Aviation Management) thesis study around the viability of these services.

My home town airport, DUD, has seen periods of big international presence. For example, during the late 90's when both Freedom and Kiwi were operating, there were times where there were 14 international flights a week. Destinations included BNE,SYD,MEL,OOL,PER. The current 3 weekly BNE service is nothing in comparison to what was once offered yet I have flown it many times and often it operates around 70% LF. There must be a significant portion of travellers routing via AKL or CHC. Given IVC has always wanted international services (just ask Tim Shadbolt), I've always thought a BNE/SYD-IVC-DUD route could work. Plus IVC has the third or fourth longest runway so no issues there.

As for PMR, they too used to have at least 1 daily international during the freedom air days. While PMR has a population under 100k, their catchment area is actually quite big, essentially the entire central-lower North island area. Surely a carrier like TT would have a good go at PMR-BNE even with just a 2 weekly .

HLZ perhaps is too close to AKL however I've always thought it had the potential to be similar to how OOL is to BNE, albeit on a smaller scale. Budget carriers like Scoot could fly into HLZ and take advantage of lower fees . Similar to OOL and BNE, Aucklanders would drive to HLZ for the much cheaper fare. The runway at HLZ is long enough to enable this..

TRG has current issues with noise and the height of Port cranes when it comes to jets - so perhaps some infrastructure would be needed for that to occur.

ROT is my eyes, while a popular tourist destination, just doesn't have the permanent population. TRG may be a better choice to serve this area.

After reading Ewan Wilsons book regarding his airline KIWI, it was pretty clear that he stimulated an untapped market but just simply didn't have the capital or experience to make it work long term. He even said in the book that KIWI made a million dollars in it's first year thus demand clearly exists. NZ knows demand exists in the regions, they just aren't willing to deviate from their hub strategy.

An allegiant type airline would work well in the secondary international market I think, low frequency, little service, older aircraft and cheap fares... Just a thought

Sylus
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:49 am

Sylus wrote:


An allegiant type airline would work well in the secondary international market I think, low frequency, little service, older aircraft and cheap fares... Just a thought

Sylus

well there's a heck of a lot of parked MD83s ex-AA and soon DL that would be perfectly suited (tail stairs anyone?) or Fokker 70s ex KL RJ70s/100s ex LX/SN/WX. The 733 is also a good candidate. I always felt the 717 was ideal for the NZ market before Boeing scuttled it in favour of the 737.
Flown to 128 Airports in 48 Countries on 81 Operators. Visited 56 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:58 am

planemanofnz wrote:
Aside from expanded Trans-Tasman services, I wonder if any of these secondary cities could support seasonal flights to the Pacific Islands too.

In the past, HLZ and PMR sustained Freedom Air flights to NAN.

Fiji Airways has a smaller 737-700, which might be perfect for re-instating some of these flights - it could offer Asian and North American connections too.

Fiji Airways is not afraid to offer low-frequency flights to secondary cities (look at its new NAN - ADL service, as an example), though, it was not successful in some smaller cities in the past (like CBR, though, that was nearly 15 years ago, and times have changed).

Image

VirginFlyer wrote:
I guess any are possible, some are definitely more likely, and I would imagine it probably wouldn't be viable for all to be offered; I would guess more an either/or scenario.

Absolutely - IMO, the HLZ - ROT - TRG catchment area should be able to sustain some seasonal flights.

In particular, TRG would be interesting, because:

- Tauranga has overtaken Dunedin's population of 127,000, clocking in at 128,200 people in 2016 (growing by 48,400 since 1996)
- Tauranga's GDP grew by 4.4 percent in 2016, and the Western Bay district's by 6.0 percent in the same period (the national average was 2.5 percent)
- Figures showed 573 new businesses set up in Tauranga in 2016, four percent more than 2015 and higher than the national average of 1.6 percent
- In 2016, both Hamilton and Tauranga's house prices surged by nearly 30 percent (among the fastest in the country)

The "wealth effect" is clearly evident, with multi-million dollar shopping malls and other entertainment facilities in the region under construction.

VirginFlyer wrote:
If New Plymouth gets a longer runway, I would add it to your list...

Yes, and Nelson too - but, neither are likely to receive a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.


FJ will retire the current 737 fleet in the next 2 years all replaced by MAX8's.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:22 am

Think that TRG within the next 5 years would be logical with the population growth, and travel times via SH2 to Auckland increasing due to more traffic.

With AKL getting more 777/787 services freeing up the A320s we could see something change within the next year or so.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:32 am

zkncj wrote:
Think that TRG within the next 5 years would be logical with the population growth, and travel times via SH2 to Auckland increasing due to more traffic.

With AKL getting more 777/787 services freeing up the A320s we could see something change within the next year or so.


I'm not convinced by that, there are at the stage 13 A321/320NEO's replacing the 13 CEO's. I'm not convinced the 321's will go outside AKL which doesn't leave a lot of A320 capacity to cover the rest WLG/CHC plus the A320 routes ex AKL.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:49 am

aerorobnz wrote:
well there's a heck of a lot of parked MD83s ex-AA and soon DL that would be perfectly suited (tail stairs anyone?) or Fokker 70s ex KL RJ70s/100s ex LX/SN/WX. The 733 is also a good candidate. I always felt the 717 was ideal for the NZ market before Boeing scuttled it in favour of the 737.


I'd like to see the A319 for the regional routes/smaller cities. It has very good short field performance and they are easily available on the market. They were Allegiant's first choice when they first started moving away from Mad Dogs.

mariner
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planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:11 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I'm not convinced the 321's will go outside AKL which doesn't leave a lot of A320 capacity to cover the rest WLG/CHC plus the A320 routes ex AKL.

Just as WLG and CHC routes have moved from the 737-300 to the A320 CEO, I can see some WLG and CHC A320 CEO routes moving to the A321 NEO.

mariner wrote:
I'd like to see the A319 for the regional routes/smaller cities.

AFAIK, VA has 2 737-700s, which could be useful for Trans-Tasman routes to smaller New Zealand cities.

Image

Cheers,

C.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:45 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I'm not convinced the 321's will go outside AKL which doesn't leave a lot of A320 capacity to cover the rest WLG/CHC plus the A320 routes ex AKL.

Just as WLG and CHC routes have moved from the 737-300 to the A320 CEO, I can see some WLG and CHC A320 CEO routes moving to the A321 NEO.

mariner wrote:
I'd like to see the A319 for the regional routes/smaller cities.

AFAIK, VA has 2 737-700s, which could be useful for Trans-Tasman routes to smaller New Zealand cities.

Image

Cheers,

C.


Well at this stage NZ are getting 4 A321's, I'm sure it will increase. WLG and CHC 733's to A320's didn't have a choice as NZ changed types with the A320 replacing the 733. They have low Frequency a lot of the routes where I think VA will be used to increase
 
Deepinsider
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:54 am

NPL8800 wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:

VirginFlyer wrote:
If New Plymouth gets a longer runway, I would add it to your list...

Yes, and Nelson too - but, neither are likely to receive a runway extension.

Cheers,

C.


A runway extension is planned for NPL in the near future, initially to 1500m and later to 1700m. The 1500m would ensure that the ATR services can operate without restrictions year round. Jets aren't really wanted as it would require a change to the noise boundaries in the area. However the terminal rebuild is the priority at the moment over a runway extension.

Out of context, with our Tasman discussion, but the odd 737 did operate New Plymouth, ad hoc domestic stuff.
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:59 am

The discussion about the secondary cities making a comeback raised some great points.
My general opinion is they won't make a comeback.
While NPL was mentioned, the runway at its current length (1000m/3281ft) would not make it feasible.

I agree that not all of these airports have the facilities to handle seasonal international flights, even if HLZ and PMR had scheduled flights in the past.
I am still dark on airports that used to/currently charge a departure fee. The audacity!
When I last went through ROT they still charged a fee even after they lost international flights.

HLZ (2195m/7202ft) - The last jet I recall going there was OJH when it took the Welsh rugby team from Wellington for their tour in June 2016.

TRG (1825m/5988ft) - similar reason to Invercargill. They had OJD there because of a random WLG-TRG-PMR-WLG charter in March 2015.
Side note: Random international diversion for a Pacific Blue 733 from Auckland in 2012.

ROT (1762m/5781ft) - definitely no. They cancelled ROT-SYD flights at the end of April 2015.

PMR (1902m/6240ft) - I am surprised to find it's been almost a decade since Freedom Air stopped international flights in 2008.

NPE (1750m/5742ft) - I remember NZ running 732 services there in the 80's but I can't imagine international flights going there at all.

DUD (1900m/6234ft) - as someone mentioned earlier the airlines, destinations and frequency have diminished considerably over the years.
I am not sure how long VA intend to hold out the BNE route but I am not predicting an increase in available international flights anytime soon.

IVC (2210m/7251ft) - No - the only reason jets have been there recently are for 2 reasons.
Special charter flights for a one off to Melbourne and the Bluff Oyster Festival in May this year and a secondary backup for NZ flights diverted from ZQN and DUD.
OXB made its way down there on May 21 to prepare ground staff the day before OXE, OJR and OJS arrived with passengers from AKL, WLG and CHC.
There's a nice picture in the linked article with 3x 320's parked on the apron at IVC. As for the diversions, IVC has had 5 flights diverted there over May, July and August.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:17 pm

I think the HLZ-TRG-ROT triangle does have some merit trans-Tasman with the combined population of these cities. But the problem is that the A320 seems a bit large for this market for year-round service with viable frequency. You'd surely need about 3 flights a week for people to be able to rely on the service. DUD also possible IMHO but ZQN seems to steel the thunder these days.

Oh how I'd love to have had the M80 in NZ. Loved flying that plane in the US. But that time is gone. And used 717s are as scarse as hens teeth these days. Cs 100 would be great opportunity here but I don't see any likelihood in the near future. Don't see NZ going this way. Maybe QF for 717 replacement. Maybe VA but how long are they going to be around given their track record of late.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:28 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Think that TRG within the next 5 years would be logical with the population growth, and travel times via SH2 to Auckland increasing due to more traffic.

With AKL getting more 777/787 services freeing up the A320s we could see something change within the next year or so.


I'm not convinced by that, there are at the stage 13 A321/320NEO's replacing the 13 CEO's. I'm not convinced the 321's will go outside AKL which doesn't leave a lot of A320 capacity to cover the rest WLG/CHC plus the A320 routes ex AKL.


Aren't there the additional 5x leased A321NEO that have yet to be decided on, which are counted outside of the 13 purchased NEO's.

With more AKL-SYD,MEL services upgraded to 777/787s it will free up an 321/320NEO, e.g. 321NEO could be used to switch an currently double daily winter SYD-ZQN into an single service.
 
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mariner
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:15 pm

a7ala wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
To what extent do people think that some of the Trans-Tasman routes to secondary New Zealand cities might be make a come-back in the near future?



No chance! .


Sadly, I'm inclined to agree. I don't think Air NZ would be interested as (a) it would dilute the main centres and cost money and (b) been there, done that. I guess its possible that a route or two may turn up that interests them eventually, but I'm not sure they looking very hard for such a route.

There is Jetstar, but how boring is that? An Aussie airline treating NZ like the 7th state - LOL. More seriously, I suspect it may be the only candidate, because sadly, none of the NZ small fry seem to have the ambition for it. I was surprised that Air Chathams didn't pick up AKL-NLK when Air NZ dropped it, for example, I thought it would fit in very well.

Sounds Air had recently - publicly - stated that they're looking for bigger aircraft, but that's gone very quiet since the first flush of the announcement. Barrier doesn't have the aircraft for it and has struggled to make Kaitaia work.

I guess it needs the financial discipline that both Air Chats and Sounds Air are showing, but maybe with a wee bit of Ewan Wilson's lunacy thrown in.

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NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:10 pm

ZKOAB wrote:
While NPL was mentioned, the runway at its current length (1000m/3281ft) would not make it feasible.


A slight correction, the length you gave above is for one of the adjacent grass runways. The primary sealed runway is 1310m.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:45 pm

NZ321 wrote:

Oh how I'd love to have had the M80 in NZ. Loved flying that plane in the US. But that time is gone. And used 717s are as scarse as hens teeth these days. Cs 100 would be great opportunity here but I don't see any likelihood in the near future. Don't see NZ going this way. Maybe QF for 717 replacement. Maybe VA but how long are they going to be around given their track record of late.


Yes I'd say CS100/300 could be one of very few aircraft types able to feasibly operate these secondary routes year round. The operating economics of the Cseries are very good. Not to mention some of these airports (namely IVC,HLZ) would likely give significant fees discounts on any airline starting new international service. Perhaps it is viable, but it won't ever happen IMO. TT or JQ are the only real options in my opinon however 180 seats on a 320 is just that bit too much to fill in off peak times.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:45 pm

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Think that TRG within the next 5 years would be logical with the population growth, and travel times via SH2 to Auckland increasing due to more traffic.

With AKL getting more 777/787 services freeing up the A320s we could see something change within the next year or so.


I'm not convinced by that, there are at the stage 13 A321/320NEO's replacing the 13 CEO's. I'm not convinced the 321's will go outside AKL which doesn't leave a lot of A320 capacity to cover the rest WLG/CHC plus the A320 routes ex AKL.


Aren't there the additional 5x leased A321NEO that have yet to be decided on, which are counted outside of the 13 purchased NEO's.

With more AKL-SYD,MEL services upgraded to 777/787s it will free up an 321/320NEO, e.g. 321NEO could be used to switch an currently double daily winter SYD-ZQN into an single service.


This keeps coming up, I believe so, no one is saying they won't go beyond the original 13 which I'm sure they will. Can the A321 even operate out of ZQN? That is one place trans Tasman where I would expect to see it assuming it can operate out of there with a viable load. In most cases though I believe the 321's will be used ex AKL to upgauge and increase frequency along with more 777/787 both on the Tasman and pacific islands.

As to the regional centres I'm not particularly inclined that we will see many if any services added, NZ is a small country and a hub airline with 4 year round international airports which in itself isn't to shabby imo.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:50 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Can the A321 even operate out of ZQN?.


Runway wise, yes, but currently the apron isn't actually wide enough to accommodate the 321's extra length. Work is being done to widen the apron before the 321's enter into service.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:04 pm

Sylus wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Can the A321 even operate out of ZQN?.


Runway wise, yes, but currently the apron isn't actually wide enough to accommodate the 321's extra length. Work is being done to widen the apron before the 321's enter into service.


Interesting thanks. The fact that they are widening it would suggest there are plans to use it. The evening AKL-SYD usually goes to ZQN the following day after overnighting SYD and then returns to AKL in the evening from SYD.

At some point I could see some domestic A321's although that seems a while off, there is a chance that some of the owned Regional A320CEO's find there way to the domestic fleet if more capacity is required in the short medium term.
 
ZKOAB
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:47 pm

NPL8800 wrote:
ZKOAB wrote:
While NPL was mentioned, the runway at its current length (1000m/3281ft) would not make it feasible.


A slight correction, the length you gave above is for one of the adjacent grass runways. The primary sealed runway is 1310m.


Oops, you're dead right. I tried to correct the info in the original post but can't.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:08 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
At some point I could see some domestic A321's although that seems a while off, there is a chance that some of the owned Regional A320CEO's find there way to the domestic fleet if more capacity is required in the short medium term.


The first 4 domestic A320s (non sharket) are leased, while the rest are owned. These are now around 6 years old and depending on how long the lease term was, maybe we could see this replaced by A321NEO's around 2020, e.g. the 5x leased NEO options could be to replace these.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:16 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
At some point I could see some domestic A321's although that seems a while off, there is a chance that some of the owned Regional A320CEO's find there way to the domestic fleet if more capacity is required in the short medium term.


The first 4 domestic A320s (non sharket) are leased, while the rest are owned. These are now around 6 years old and depending on how long the lease term was, maybe we could see this replaced by A321NEO's around 2020, e.g. the 5x leased NEO options could be to replace these.


NBT is referring to the fact that Air NZ now own six of the thirteen regional A320CEOs. In the last Investor Day Presentation it was mentioned that some of these could be used to add capacity to the domestic fleet when the A320/A321NEOs arrive.

PA515
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:35 am

PA515 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
At some point I could see some domestic A321's although that seems a while off, there is a chance that some of the owned Regional A320CEO's find there way to the domestic fleet if more capacity is required in the short medium term.


The first 4 domestic A320s (non sharket) are leased, while the rest are owned. These are now around 6 years old and depending on how long the lease term was, maybe we could see this replaced by A321NEO's around 2020, e.g. the 5x leased NEO options could be to replace these.


NBT is referring to the fact that Air NZ now own six of the thirteen regional A320CEOs. In the last Investor Day Presentation it was mentioned that some of these could be used to add capacity to the domestic fleet when the A320/A321NEOs arrive.

PA515


I think if they need more capacity domestically short term they will add some regional A320CEO's which would then be the first replaced a few years later by more NEO's be it 321's or 320's. the leases domestics will hang around I'd say for a while.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:12 am

Hi all,

I have set up a thread to discuss commercial aviation development in Antarctica - see: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1376109.

Given that New Zealand's Ross Dependency hosts Antarctica's largest community - McMurdo Station, NZ would be well placed to offer:

- Sightseeing fly-overs (like the multiple charter services out of Australia on QF 747-400ERs, each year)
- Seasonal flights landing in Antarctica, allowing tourists to walk around a base like McMurdo Station for an hour, before flying off again (if NZ could lobby the New Zealand government for this, potentially with the promise that some revenue generated from these flights would go towards scientific research)

NZ would also be able to pick up connections from the Americas and Asia:

Image

The number of visitors to Antarctica is forecast to rise to almost 45,000 in 2017 - just below the 2008 pre-recession peak.

Please do let me know what you think!

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 1671
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:31 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
I would imagine it probably wouldn't be viable

a7ala wrote:
No chance!

aerorobnz wrote:
I don't expect anything to secondary New Zealand

Sylus wrote:
NZ knows demand exists in the regions, they just aren't willing to deviate from their hub strategy

ZKOAB wrote:
My general opinion is they won't make a comeback

To what extent do people think that government could play a role here?

Regulation
The New Zealand Commerce Commission could condition any alliance renewals on a certain amount of activity being developed at secondary airports. In Australia, regulatory policy has, to some extent, been responsible for the opening up of new international services, like DOH - SYD - CBR.

Incentives
Budget 2016 provided almost NZD 100 million of funding for regional economic development initiatives - in future, some of these funds could be directed at attracting international flights. After all, connectivity is more than out-bound holiday traffic - it can increase exports, investment and tourism.

Smaller political parties who attract rural voters, like New Zealand First, may also condition coalition arrangements on the measures noted above.

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2442
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:59 am

With Silver Airways (USA) now replacing its fleet for 22 late 90s Saab 340s could some of these end up in New Zealand? Air Chats currently has an single Saab and Sounds Air has publicly said there we're looking for something larger like the saab.

Could an Saab 340 be used to re-open the AKL-NLK route? provided they could get an ETPOS 90 minutes coverage it seems that it could be do able, after all the DC3 and F27 have both operated this route in the past. Surely an 33 seater aircraft would be much more suited to the route an could probably be an daily service.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AKL-NLK%0D%0A%0D%0A&MS=wls&DU=km&SG=490&SU=kph&E=90

Looks like the around 1090km and would take around 2h15-2h20min operated by the S340 which has an 1700km range.
 
zkncj
Posts: 2442
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:09 am

How open would passengers be to travelling TRG-SYD in an turbo prop on an second tier airline?

TRG-SYD: 2,292km on an ETPOS 90minute route.

The Saab 2000 has an published range of 2900km, which should be enough to allow an divert. With an rough travel time of 3h40minutes it wouldn't be to bad.
 
User avatar
mariner
Posts: 18961
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2001 7:29 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - October 2017

Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:24 am

zkncj wrote:
With Silver Airways (USA) now replacing its fleet for 22 late 90s Saab 340s could some of these end up in New Zealand? Air Chats currently has an single Saab and Sounds Air has publicly said there we're looking for something larger like the saab.

Could an Saab 340 be used to re-open the AKL-NLK route? provided they could get an ETPOS 90 minutes coverage it seems that it could be do able, after all the DC3 and F27 have both operated this route in the past. Surely an 33 seater aircraft would be much more suited to the route an could probably be an daily service..


I doubt Sounds would do it. Cliff Marchant, the owner/CEO, has frequently said that he is very conscious of, and content with, the airline's niche, which is basically all around Cook Strait. Maybe he'd change his mind, people do.

But as I said earlier, I was surprised that Air Chats didn't jump at it. It would be like their flight from AKL to the Chathams, only in a different direction - LOL.

The problem is that because they're both private companies, I have no idea what their financial circumstances are, and how much debt they're carrying. I know that Sounds got some financial help for the aircraft they acquired just before starting Westport, but I don't know know what percentage off the deal that represented. I assume Sounds or Air Chats would be in a position to acquire more aircraft but it might involve some debt and I don't know if that's the way they want to go. Setting up an international flight out of Auckland would be quite expensive for a small airline and a radical change in direction.

And if either gets too much bigger then it would be easy to imagine control of the airline, either one, slipping away from its present owners. There's no such thing as free money for airlines.

mariner
aeternum nauta
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