In a recent new article in the WSJ and the local paper, Kjøs has said that that services to Stewart have gone so well with a predicated sales of double of what was expected. He has said that Norwegian is planning to create more services out of SWF.

One question, is where to? I could certainly see the FDF and PTP services come to SWF, but where else.

That's excellent news. I thought SWF had a real shot to excel. Good for them

I heard that SWF got a 45% increase in passengers this year.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stewart-ai ... 1505848008

Seems to be the stuff that reads as "maybe" and "looking at" are things they have already added but haven't happened yet (BGO this winter and expanded Dublin next summer)

smallvoyageur wrote:

In a recent new article in the WSJ and the local paper, Kjøs has said that that services to Stewart have gone so well with a predicated sales of double of what was expected. He has said that Norwegian is planning to create more services out of SWF.

One question, is where to? I could certainly see the FDF and PTP services come to SWF, but where else.

There is quite a few options on the British isley and Scandinavia

It's nice to see Norwegian flourishing. Just a shame at what SWF's domestic ops with the legacies are like. DL can't even sustain RJs to ATL from there.

http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traf ... y_2017.pdf

These are the stats as published by PANNYNJ for July, 26,703 pax and by their count (not mine) 32,880 available seats for a 81.2% ratio. Assuming those are the adjusted available seats from the flights not being the MAX and thus having seats blocked.

Keflavik.

They are going to be the biggest distrupter of the status quo among the legacies we have ever seen. They can try to fend them off at the the big airports but additional service at smaller airports are going to cumulatively kill TATL feed at the mega hubs in less the alliances drop prices, which will cut into margins. The Legacies can answer with a smaller MOM but the likes of Norwegian will be right there with them on putting them into service. Norwegian may be the first carrier to use them. Norwegian has a bunch of planes coming in the next three years, more 789s, MAXs and the A321LR will drop in 2019. We will see the route announcements for that one likely this time next year for 2019 service. The first thing we'll see is if really do like Iceland or prefer getting deeper into Europe before a stop.hi b

RL757PVD wrote:

Seems to be the stuff that reads as "maybe" and "looking at" are things they have already added but haven't happened yet (BGO this winter and expanded Dublin next summer)

Bergen in the winter is impossible due to range issues. In the winter aircraft always consume a little more fuel and that little bit just makes the difference between possible and impossible.

There are however more options in Europe for them, specially in the UK and Ireland but places like Iceland or Faroër are also possibilities. In summer even some of mainland Europe is within reach (Netherlands, Belgium and northern France). Those will have to be seasonal flights of course due to the range factor, same as with Bergen.

evank516 wrote:

It's nice to see Norwegian flourishing. Just a shame at what SWF's domestic ops with the legacies are like. DL can't even sustain RJs to ATL from there.

That's because Delta is a legacy and Norwegian is an LCC. Somehow at small airports like Stewart LCCs always do better than legacies. At large airports it's the other way around.

As far as domestic options at Stewart, I think Allegiant is the best horse to bet at. They got a few flights out of there and I think they can grow. If they match their schedule to Norwegian they can even be an unofficial feeder, lots of people will make a self-transfer between Norwegian and Allegiant.

I would imagine a lot of this traffic is organic and is not hurting the established airlines out of JFK/EWR/BOS. And this organic traffic is being drawn in by promotional fares that can not be profitable in the long run. You simply can't fly a plane profitably for 6-7 hours with $99 fare pax, no matter how fuel efficient they claim the max to be.

Sean-SAN- wrote:

I would imagine a lot of this traffic is organic and is not hurting the established airlines out of JFK/EWR/BOS. And this organic traffic is being drawn in by promotional fares that can not be profitable in the long run. You simply can't fly a plane profitably for 6-7 hours with $99 fare pax, no matter how fuel efficient they claim the max to be.

Established airlines rely for the most part on the hub and spoke system to fill those planes to far flung destinations. Take away enough spokes and the legacies will start to hurt.

As far as whether these fares are profitable or not, we don't know their cost structure so its hard to make such a blanket statement.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Bergen in the winter is impossible due to range issues. In the winter aircraft always consume a little more fuel and that little bit just makes the difference between possible and impossible.

Sorry but you're wrong.

Norwegian will be flying 2x weekly BGO-SWF the coming winter with the 737-8MAX

WaywardMemphian wrote:

They are going to be the biggest distrupter of the status quo among the legacies we have ever seen. They can try to fend them off at the the big airports but additional service at smaller airports are going to cumulatively kill TATL feed at the mega hubs in less the alliances drop prices, which will cut into margins. The Legacies can answer with a smaller MOM but the likes of Norwegian will be right there with them on putting them into service. Norwegian may be the first carrier to use them. Norwegian has a bunch of planes coming in the next three years, more 789s, MAXs and the A321LR will drop in 2019. We will see the route announcements for that one likely this time next year for 2019 service. The first thing we'll see is if really do like Iceland or prefer getting deeper into Europe before a stop.hi b

I am still undecided if I would drive from MCI to STL to catch the likes of (potentially unreliable) WOW to Europe!. When I consider the drive ,gas, parking and general headache, I suppose for now I am still willing to pay the legacy prices, but there would be only two of us traveling at most, not a family of 4-5. We shall see how this all plays out but I feel the MEM's and MCI's of the world may get left out of all this fun! Too small for the wide bodies and too far for the LR narrow bodies, save the B- 757!

One would hope MAN could be included.

Given MAN was almost launched but then the operation switched to DUB at the 11th hour, it isn't implausible to think that MAN could be top of the pile now that the 'obvious' routes are covered from SWF.

With AA pulling JFK leaving just UA/VS/MT on the NYC market, there could be room for a 'Northern New York' service. A B737 isn't exactly a huge aircraft to fill after all, even with competition.

Someone83 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Bergen in the winter is impossible due to range issues. In the winter aircraft always consume a little more fuel and that little bit just makes the difference between possible and impossible.

m

Sorry but you're wrong.

Norwegian will be flying 2x weekly BGO-SWF the coming winter with the 737-8MAX

Not gonna work with a GC dist of 3003nm with meaningful payload. With headwinds this is going into being limited by Max Fuel Capacity. Once there, payload range drops fast.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

It's nice to see Norwegian flourishing. Just a shame at what SWF's domestic ops with the legacies are like. DL can't even sustain RJs to ATL from there.

That's because Delta is a legacy and Norwegian is an LCC. Somehow at small airports like Stewart LCCs always do better than legacies. At large airports it's the other way around.

As far as domestic options at Stewart, I think Allegiant is the best horse to bet at. They got a few flights out of there and I think they can grow. If they match their schedule to Norwegian they can even be an unofficial feeder, lots of people will make a self-transfer between Norwegian and Allegiant.

AirTran used to do great out of SWF. Sad that jetBlue has not tried an out of city build. I think they could do so much better with a build up of service and locations. The only legacy I could possibly see adding is American. HPN lost PHL with the prop planes though. Wondering if SWF may be on the list to get cut, and if so hopefully they move the flight to CLT then at least.

I was at SWF 48 hours ago for my Delta Connection flight to DTW. The flight was three hours late, so no connection possible. The path of least resistance was to just head down to EWR the next morning. The regional service at SWF hasn’t been very reliable. The episode this week was the icing on my cake.

User001 wrote:

One would hope MAN could be included.

Given MAN was almost launched but then the operation switched to DUB at the 11th hour, it isn't implausible to think that MAN could be top of the pile now that the 'obvious' routes are covered from SWF.

With AA pulling JFK leaving just UA/VS/MT on the NYC market, there could be room for a 'Northern New York' service. A B737 isn't exactly a huge aircraft to fill after all, even with competition.

Totally agree, I think certainly MAN or even BHX as possibilities, I seriously doubt any London airport as it would kill any traffic from LGW to JFK. The only issue with MAN is that most of the traffic would be UK to US rather then visa versa, as most Americans I think would be weary of visiting a city that had a recent attack. Certainly, speaking from someone living the northern home counties, that BHX could easily be a good alternative to LGW, as the M25 is a pigs ear if you live on the "wrong side".

arcticcruiser wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Bergen in the winter is impossible due to range issues. In the winter aircraft always consume a little more fuel and that little bit just makes the difference between possible and impossible.

m

Sorry but you're wrong.

Norwegian will be flying 2x weekly BGO-SWF the coming winter with the 737-8MAX

Not gonna work with a GC dist of 3003nm with meaningful payload. With headwinds this is going into being limited by Max Fuel Capacity. Once there, payload range drops fast.

Tell that to Norwegian, because they will fly the route the coming winter......

Will there be a few flights with fuel divertion? Probably. But claiming it not gonna work is wrong

How's the balance sheet looking at DY? Any healthier?

Does anyone know how the BFS-SWF route is performing?

The only issue with MAN is that most of the traffic would be UK to US rather then visa versa, as most Americans I think would be weary of visiting a city that had a recent attack.

I believe UK/Ire-US has made up a bulk of the Norwegian MAX traffic to date anyway.

When MAN-SWF was rumoured, there were actually quite a few people I know from upstate that we're excited about a local connection, and that's just the very small sample size I know, so, multiplied?

As for the recent terror attack, well, there is a lot of crap in the world at the moment, terror related and I would go as far to say riot related too, so, if they discounted places due to terror, then Barcelona, London, Paris, Brussels, Helsinki, Stockholm, Istanbul and Nice just to name a few would be off too, you start to run out of places to visit in the end!

I wonder if PVD also going well for them. Anyway I think MAN/BHX or maybe something more risky like ABZ or NCL can work.

nadavatar64 wrote:

I wonder if PVD also going well for them. Anyway I think MAN/BHX or maybe something more risky like ABZ or NCL can work.

I know it's one flight, but when I did PVD-EDI the other week the flight was very busy with only a couple of rows empty at the back (possibly due to weight restrictions on the 738). Lots of American tourists headed to Scotland.

Good news. I am sure we will see more UK & Ireland routes first + some extra Scandinavia, but then it's only a matter of time for continental Europe to come onboard.
I would not be too surprised to see DY open a second London gateway for their Stewart 738 flights... a daily into STN could happily complement their existing 787 services out of LGW, without competing really -- different markets, different catchments!


This is excellent news for travelers, and frankly I don't think this will be of any great significance to the legacies flying out of JFK/EWR...I am sure most pax on these services will be "new" leisure Atlantic crossers, and not 'regulars' who are leaving the legacies...not to mention business travelers... Crossing the pond from Stewart on a DY 738 is not exactly the most attractive proposition for a regular/businessman, but can however be 'just the right thing' for that little someone from Europe who has never been to NYC, or has been away for long because of the cost of normal flights on the legacies...these customers won't mind the extra distance/inconvenience attached to the small airport, the 'low cost' experience and the narrow body jet.

Someone83 wrote:

arcticcruiser wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

m

Sorry but you're wrong.

Norwegian will be flying 2x weekly BGO-SWF the coming winter with the 737-8MAX

Not gonna work with a GC dist of 3003nm with meaningful payload. With headwinds this is going into being limited by Max Fuel Capacity. Once there, payload range drops fast.

Tell that to Norwegian, because they will fly the route the coming winter......

Will there be a few flights with fuel divertion? Probably. But claiming it not gonna work is wrong

BOS-SJC on B6 last year had an entire week of continued technical stops. BGO-SWF will be the tech stop special this winter. But then again, DY is chasing the lowest yielding customer possible, so they probably won't care if the flights are 2 or 3 hours longer.

NOC & KIR next......

Someone83 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Bergen in the winter is impossible due to range issues. In the winter aircraft always consume a little more fuel and that little bit just makes the difference between possible and impossible.

Sorry but you're wrong.

Norwegian will be flying 2x weekly BGO-SWF the coming winter with the 737-8MAX

it will be very close as the range with 162 seats is 3515nm. SWF is 3004nm, with winter winds your looking at needing fuel for almost around 3404nm. only 111nm to spare. Norwegian seats 186 on the 737-800 so expect at leaf that many on the 8. around 5160 lb. more passengers + the weight of the additional seats seems to mean seats blocked during winter or a regular fuel stop in Canada or Iceland.

RJNUT wrote:

WaywardMemphian wrote:

They are going to be the biggest distrupter of the status quo among the legacies we have ever seen. They can try to fend them off at the the big airports but additional service at smaller airports are going to cumulatively kill TATL feed at the mega hubs in less the alliances drop prices, which will cut into margins. The Legacies can answer with a smaller MOM but the likes of Norwegian will be right there with them on putting them into service. Norwegian may be the first carrier to use them. Norwegian has a bunch of planes coming in the next three years, more 789s, MAXs and the A321LR will drop in 2019. We will see the route announcements for that one likely this time next year for 2019 service. The first thing we'll see is if really do like Iceland or prefer getting deeper into Europe before a stop.hi b

I am still undecided if I would drive from MCI to STL to catch the likes of (potentially unreliable) WOW to Europe!. When I consider the drive ,gas, parking and general headache, I suppose for now I am still willing to pay the legacy prices, but there would be only two of us traveling at most, not a family of 4-5. We shall see how this all plays out but I feel the MEM's and MCI's of the world may get left out of all this fun! Too small for the wide bodies and too far for the LR narrow bodies, save the B- 757!

Sorry but MEM & MCI to LHR would be a very not make it in winter. Their ranges with wind would be very tight and stops for fuel tipoff would be needed.

nadavatar64 wrote:

I wonder if PVD also going well for them. Anyway I think MAN/BHX or maybe something more risky like ABZ or NCL can work.

They have upped the frequency on PVD-EDI next year from 4 per week to 6 per week. SWF-EDI has gone from 7 per week to 5 per week. BDL-EDI remains at 3 per week next year.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

It's nice to see Norwegian flourishing. Just a shame at what SWF's domestic ops with the legacies are like. DL can't even sustain RJs to ATL from there.

That's because Delta is a legacy and Norwegian is an LCC. Somehow at small airports like Stewart LCCs always do better than legacies. At large airports it's the other way around.

As far as domestic options at Stewart, I think Allegiant is the best horse to bet at. They got a few flights out of there and I think they can grow. If they match their schedule to Norwegian they can even be an unofficial feeder, lots of people will make a self-transfer between Norwegian and Allegiant.

Norwegian needs to hook up with a US based LCC for quasi feed purposes. It might help connect mid size airports with directs that otherwise wouldn't have service.

rbavfan wrote:

RJNUT wrote:

WaywardMemphian wrote:

They are going to be the biggest distrupter of the status quo among the legacies we have ever seen. They can try to fend them off at the the big airports but additional service at smaller airports are going to cumulatively kill TATL feed at the mega hubs in less the alliances drop prices, which will cut into margins. The Legacies can answer with a smaller MOM but the likes of Norwegian will be right there with them on putting them into service. Norwegian may be the first carrier to use them. Norwegian has a bunch of planes coming in the next three years, more 789s, MAXs and the A321LR will drop in 2019. We will see the route announcements for that one likely this time next year for 2019 service. The first thing we'll see is if really do like Iceland or prefer getting deeper into Europe before a stop.hi b

I am still undecided if I would drive from MCI to STL to catch the likes of (potentially unreliable) WOW to Europe!. When I consider the drive ,gas, parking and general headache, I suppose for now I am still willing to pay the legacy prices, but there would be only two of us traveling at most, not a family of 4-5. We shall see how this all plays out but I feel the MEM's and MCI's of the world may get left out of all this fun! Too small for the wide bodies and too far for the LR narrow bodies, save the B- 757!

Sorry but MEM & MCI to LHR would be a very not make it in winter. Their ranges with wind would be very tight and stops for fuel tipoff would be needed.

I would assume any service to these kinds of airports would be summer seasonal at the start. Some may move up into 788 sized markets with any success and certainly the same theory would apply for any MOM that may enter the market.

Look I only go by the hints Kjos puts out, seems most cities he mentions gets service. I know he has dropped Memphis several time most recently just a couple of months ago in a Scottish paper on Edinburgh sercice. His dream of Gatwick expanding is just that so he'll have to build Dublin and /Edinburgh up into a very sizable connection spot.

VS4ever wrote:

http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/SWF_July_2017.pdf

Assuming those are the adjusted available seats from the flights not being the MAX and thus having seats blocked.

Interesting figures. Checking versus theoritical number of flights; available seats correspond to 186 seats (actual capacity) except for DUB (157). As DUB is not the longest flight, I cant see why they would block seats on that route. Either some DUB flights did not operate or there is something wrong in the figures, but I would guess SWF figures do not take into account blocked seats, meaning load factor is probably over 90%, as it is the case on most Norwegian flights to US

rj1385 wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

evank516 wrote:

It's nice to see Norwegian flourishing. Just a shame at what SWF's domestic ops with the legacies are like. DL can't even sustain RJs to ATL from there.

That's because Delta is a legacy and Norwegian is an LCC. Somehow at small airports like Stewart LCCs always do better than legacies. At large airports it's the other way around.

As far as domestic options at Stewart, I think Allegiant is the best horse to bet at. They got a few flights out of there and I think they can grow. If they match their schedule to Norwegian they can even be an unofficial feeder, lots of people will make a self-transfer between Norwegian and Allegiant.

AirTran used to do great out of SWF. Sad that jetBlue has not tried an out of city build. I think they could do so much better with a build up of service and locations. The only legacy I could possibly see adding is American. HPN lost PHL with the prop planes though. Wondering if SWF may be on the list to get cut, and if so hopefully they move the flight to CLT then at least.

I don't think AirTran did so great. They started in January 2007 and were gone in 2008 leaving all of the air service north and west of the city to HPN.

I wonder how much the transfer bus (Norwegian contracts with Stagecoach's Coach USA subsidiary for this) helps here, so that SWF isn't so isolated. That said, long term, 6-10 A321LR frames (of the 30 on order) should be taken by Norwegian itself for its own operations rather than offered for dry lease...a W20-Y+12Y-168configuration would make sense.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I wonder how much the transfer bus (Norwegian contracts with Stagecoach's Coach USA subsidiary for this) helps here, so that SWF isn't so isolated. That said, long term, 6-10 A321LR frames (of the 30 on order) should be taken by Norwegian itself for its own operations rather than offered for dry lease...a W20-Y+12Y-168configuration would make sense.

NorwegIan has said their A321LRS will be single class at 220 seats. I could see a Premium Economy
configurationat 10 or 12 seats at 2x2 that helps 'lighten up' the plane some for TATL. It would certainly help capture some business travel. I don't think you'll ever see a 3 class, though Legacies could do that to 'lighten up" the plane even further to increase range if they decide to put in on TATL.

I don't know if Norwegian plans on leasing out the A321LRs, I thought that was for the A320s with the bastard child engines.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I wonder how much the transfer bus (Norwegian contracts with Stagecoach's Coach USA subsidiary for this) helps here, so that SWF isn't so isolated. That said, long term, 6-10 A321LR frames (of the 30 on order) should be taken by Norwegian itself for its own operations rather than offered for dry lease...a W20-Y+12Y-168configuration would make sense.

The 30 Airbus A321LR is for the parent company Norwegian Air Shuttle

Just a question here can my Airport (NCL) with a runway length of 7,641ft handle a B737MAX with a full load to PVD or SWF?

Great to see it working out for Norwegian I do believe next announcement for long haul flights from BDL/PVD/SWF will include MAN or most likely BHX and than possibly NCL,GLA or Cardiff.

Technically it could, but didn't Newcastle airport recently say they didn't want any more LCCs and would focus on legacies? I remember reading something like that, but I don't recall exactly what it said.

On top of that, UK airports Always have the disadvantage of the APD. This could be one of the reason Dublin is doing so good. I bet many people from the UK self-transfer at Dublin and thus avoid the APD. There are plenty of flights to Dublin available all over the UK and they cost almost nothing, and in Dublin it's easy to grab one of these cheap Norwegian flights to the USA. That's the advantage that Ireland has over the UK. For this reason I can see them adding more flights out of Ireland, places like Kerry and Knock might see service to the USA before Newcastle.

Where does Norwegian fly to SWF currently?

Do you think SWF will look like SFB 5 years from now?....well, SFB about 10 years ago.

727LOVER wrote:

Where does Norwegian fly to SWF currently?

Do you think SWF will look like SFB 5 years from now?....well, SFB about 10 years ago.

EDI, DUB, BFS, BGO, SNN

I could see them starting PDL if the MAX gets ETOPS and maybe BHX if the MAX can make it that far. Would it be viable for Norwegian to fly the MAX from Europe to other US cities, other than the three cities, or would they have to wait for the A321NEOLR (rolls right off your tongue) to start other East Coast flights?

I don't get why SWF is doing so well, is it people who are avoiding JFK and EWR? SWF only has a couple RJ flights to DTW and PHL (not even ATL), B6 to FLL & MCO, and G4. By comparison PVD and BDL have much stronger markets and lots of other flight opportunities.

If you are coming from the North... you don't even have to cross the TappenZee.

Many in the Upstate Region don't mind the long drive... You have lots of good feeder interstates... I-81, I-90, I-84, I-87, I-88. I guess the idea is it is quite accessible and you basically avoid all of the NYC traffic. It's a good alternative from folks from northern NJ too.

A good friend just made the drive down from Ballston Spa, NY to Newburgh to fly TATL out of SWF. Spent a few days in Scotland and then did a Mediterranean cruise. I don't know who he flew with or which airport he landed, but he did comment on the limited food options at SWF following his long drive from upstate.

And hey, with it's 15000' runway, anyone can operate a 9MAX or 10MAX.

The catchment area for SWF can include parts CT, Albany area, Lake George, even college towns like Ithaca and Syracuse due to the crossroads of I-84 and the NY Thruway near SWF and as no non-stop flights to Europe from airports close to them. Yes, you might have to drive 2 hours to get to SWF, but that gives you a range of 100 miles or so and at least that much in time anyway on a connecting flight to JFK, BOS or EWR so with the connection times needed to allocate, air traffic and weather sometimes making it longer. Long term parking is relatively cheap at SWF or it's area vs. JFK, BOS or EWR.
Yes, food options are scarce at SWF, but a few miles away, mainly to the East of SWF are a full range of places to eat from fast fooders to sit down restaurants or someplace to get it to go.
I do hope it expands in demand by Norwegian and other airlines, one will feed the other and provide more options for travel in the region.

I'd definitely love to see Norwegian expand at SWF, but at the same time I hope to see them come to ISP within the next few years

Super80Fan wrote:

I don't get why SWF is doing so well, is it people who are avoiding JFK and EWR? SWF only has a couple RJ flights to DTW and PHL (not even ATL), B6 to FLL & MCO, and G4. By comparison PVD and BDL have much stronger markets and lots of other flight opportunities.

when you price it as low as Norwegian is doing, there is enough people in Westchester and upstate New York who would find it more convenient than JFK and EWR. If you are from Europe and thinking you are coming to New York, you will be in for a rough surprise though, especially in the winter time.

I live in Danbury, CT., a city of 84,000 and easily over 100,000 in our metro area all directly along I-84 within only about an hour drive from SWF that avoids all the hassle of JFK which you must allow at least 2 hours drive.

Norwegian is now well known in the area. In my job I come in contact with a large cross section of the community and Norwegian is well known if I mention it to them. I'm hoping to take them from SWF in the spring. I wish they offered the PE that they do from JFK. I enjoyed that to BGO and ARN in the past.