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keesje
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AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:28 am

American will have to place an order the cover 777-200ER replacement in the next decade.

There are 47 777-200ER in use, 22 A350-900s on order.

11 787-9 are in the backlog and 40 A330's/ 767 are being replaced in th next few years. .

Image

IMO a combined order of ~40 787-9/-10s and A350-900/1000's is on the agenda.
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Tedd
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:56 am

Wouldn`t the A350-1000 be an ideal like-for-like replacement for their B777-200`s? I know it`s a little
bigger so purchase price would be a consideration, but if AA can realize on expected growth I could
see it fitting in well with improved running costs too. It would also directly complement their 300-ER`s.
 
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intotheair
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:02 am

Maybe they'll follow UA's lead and find a creative yet sensible way of replacing 772s with A350s as time goes by.
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OA940
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:14 am

A 789/78J/359 combo seems like the most logical and likeliest possibility, considering both types have been ordered.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:54 am

When do they get their first A350? They can do a side by side comparison and evaluation. I believe they have options for both so whatever works best and at the right price. I don't think many of us can give the unique American perspective, so we will probably end up taking the typical A vs B talking points.

Anyone have insights into American's objectives? I believe most of the 777-200ERs are flying Transatlantic and South America, so range isn't a huge factor. 787s are flying many of the Pacific routes I believe (not sure on that). Could that mean that we could add the 787-10 to the mix?
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:04 pm

Question - if the MoM is ever actually built, would AA be interested as a replacement for some of those 767?
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keesje
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:06 pm

Delivery of the A350-900 will start in 2020. Much can happen before that time. Deliveries were postponed twice already.

Replacement of the 777W's will probably be after 2030 based on the echnical life cycle. If fuel gets high, the economical life cycle could be shortened.

Image

AA / US traditionally were less developed in Asia, less so than Delta and United with their alliance partners. This might give opportunity to the 787-10, which is fine for Europe and South America flights.

Image
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:51 pm

intotheair wrote:
Maybe they'll follow UA's lead and find a creative yet sensible way of replacing 772s with A350s as time goes by.


That would certainly be possible, but there are some doubters out there.

https://thepointsguy.com/2017/04/aa-def ... eliveries/
 
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keesje
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:12 am

This article is about Airbus’s effort to expand in North America and how this has partly failed or at least disappointed.[url]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/408662 ... th-america[/url]

Dhierin feels the appetite for the aircraft amongst North American carriers has weakened.

AA has a balanced fleet since th eaquisition of US and the huge A320 series order a few years back.

Image
Source: https://www.airinsight.com/evaluating-american-airlines-fleet-likely-future-actions/
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:48 pm

Seeking Alpha is not a great source, anyone without any credible knowledge of the aviation industry can signup and write articles like that.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:31 pm

keesje wrote:
Delivery of the A350-900 will start in 2020. Much can happen before that time. Deliveries were postponed twice already.

Replacement of the 777W's will probably be after 2030 based on the echnical life cycle. If fuel gets high, the economical life cycle could be shortened.

Image

AA / US traditionally were less developed in Asia, less so than Delta and United with their alliance partners. This might give opportunity to the 787-10, which is fine for Europe and South America flights.

Image


Curios, what is that a route map of? Is that AA and all codeshare routes?
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:48 pm

Right now a lot of options are being explored:

American Airlines Group Inc. is stepping up efforts to decide if an Airbus SE A350 order still makes sense for its fleet, forcing the European planemaker to try to defend another U.S. sale of its marquee wide-body jet.

The two companies have restarted talks about a twice-delayed deal for 22 of the A350-900 planes, a person familiar with the discussions said. A predecessor airline placed the order in 2005 and got a good price. But American President Robert Isom said the modest number of jets probably isn’t suitable for the world’s largest carrier.

...

It’s too early to determine the outcome of American’s negotiations with Airbus, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Options include adding to the order, downsizing to a smaller Airbus wide-body such as the A330, deferring delivery again or canceling outright.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -a350-deal
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Sooner787
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:57 pm

I'm sure AA could swap those 359 orders for more A321Neo's if they wanted.
AA has like 75 - 80 B738's delivered in 2000 that additional NEO's could replace.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:59 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could swap those 359 orders for more A321Neo's if they wanted.


As always with these contracts, RR is the biggest obstacle. Converting to A330neo could be an easier alternative.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:10 pm

KarelXWB wrote:

There's very interesting / raw / unguarded comments from the C-suite in that article:

“I don’t like small fleets in an airline our size,” Isom told American pilots at a question-and-answer session Aug. 29, a recording of which was heard by Bloomberg News. “It’s exceptional pricing. Unfortunately, pricing is just one aspect of trying to fly something profitably.”

And:

While American needs the A350s to replace Boeing 767 and 777 jets that it’s slowly retiring, the airline’s Boeing 787 Dreamliner wide-bodies do “many of the same missions,” Isom said.

I wonder what Bob's a.net handle is! :biggrin:
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:17 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could swap those 359 orders for more A321Neo's if they wanted.
AA has like 75 - 80 B738's delivered in 2000 that additional NEO's could replace.


And they already have 100 737max's on order with the first one ready for delivery.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:48 pm

 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:

There's very interesting / raw / unguarded comments from the C-suite in that article:

“I don’t like small fleets in an airline our size,” Isom told American pilots at a question-and-answer session Aug. 29, a recording of which was heard by Bloomberg News. “It’s exceptional pricing. Unfortunately, pricing is just one aspect of trying to fly something profitably.”


That is not too surprising though. AA's A350xwb order dates all the way back to 2005 when US ordered the A350 mk1 as the US launch customer. It would be a shock if the pricing for a 12 year old order that had to be renegotiated/delayed to the XWB because of Airbus wasn't exceptional.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:05 pm

The comments about the small fleet make sense, but they're interesting when thinking about alternatives for the wide body fleet - what are AA's options long term? All Boeing 787/777? A mix of 339/787/777? Would a carrier AA's size put all of their wide body eggs in one manufacturer basket (Boeing?) The combination of risk management and fleet optimization is fascinating to me.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:20 pm

Polot wrote:
Revelation wrote:
There's very interesting / raw / unguarded comments from the C-suite in that article:

“I don’t like small fleets in an airline our size,” Isom told American pilots at a question-and-answer session Aug. 29, a recording of which was heard by Bloomberg News. “It’s exceptional pricing. Unfortunately, pricing is just one aspect of trying to fly something profitably.”


That is not too surprising though. AA's A350xwb order dates all the way back to 2005 when US ordered the A350 mk1 as the US launch customer. It would be a shock if the pricing for a 12 year old order that had to be renegotiated/delayed to the XWB because of Airbus wasn't exceptional.


Pricing of the early A350s was extremely good. Finnair too was an early customer, and when it sold an A350 in early 2017 on a sale-and-leaseback deal it resulted a $40 million positive effect on the balance sheet.

Also gotta love the quote that AA calls 22 aircraft "a small fleet".
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:21 pm

tlecam wrote:
The comments about the small fleet make sense, but they're interesting when thinking about alternatives for the wide body fleet - what are AA's options long term? All Boeing 787/777? A mix of 339/787/777? Would a carrier AA's size put all of their wide body eggs in one manufacturer basket (Boeing?) The combination of risk management and fleet optimization is fascinating to me.

The article tells us:
“They are planned to come, but at the end of the day, is it something I would like to figure out to either make it a bigger fleet or make it something that is common in another place?” Isom said. “The answer to that is yes, but we haven’t figured it out.”

Seems the choices are a bigger A350 order or add to the existing Airbus fleet(s).
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:25 pm

Adding to the A350 order would have interesting implications for the fairly young 15 frame A332 fleet. If they think 22 frames is a "small" fleet...
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:15 pm

Polot wrote:
Adding to the A350 order would have interesting implications for the fairly young 15 frame A332 fleet. If they think 22 frames is a "small" fleet...


When you have nearly 950 aircraft, 22 planes, or about 2%, is small. Yes, it's more than 2% of seat capacity, but still small. There are maintenance procedures, etc. that have to be maintained regardless of the number of planes, plus training, simulators, etc. It's not cost effective unless they are necessary for a very specific niche that can't be filled by another type.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:37 pm

I have a feeling that, unless they can get out with virtually no cancellation fees, this will end up with either a 40+ total order for the A350s or A330s (or mix.) AA is large enough to handle multiple widebody fleet types, and with the A330/A350 approved for single type rating, A mixed fleet based on the east coast of the two types would provide good N/S hemisphere rotations, with some A350s on the trunk routes year round to places like LHR & GRU, and the remainder swapping between MIA/PHL/CLT/JFK as demand flows change. Plus the A350 on east coast gives the airline the flexibility to run east coast to Asia or deeper parts of Africa, if those services become economically viable for AA in the future.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:54 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
As always with these contracts, RR is the biggest obstacle. Converting to A330neo could be an easier alternative.


I still think the A330neo is a much better 777-200ER replacement for AA than the A350. While the A350 is no doubt a phenomenal performer, IMHO it has too much range for the majority of missions AA would send it on (e.g. transatlantic and Latin America). Better to buy the A330neo for those routes and continue deploying the B787-9 to Asia...
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:01 pm

GripenFan wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:
As always with these contracts, RR is the biggest obstacle. Converting to A330neo could be an easier alternative.


I still think the A330neo is a much better 777-200ER replacement for AA than the A350. While the A350 is no doubt a phenomenal performer, IMHO it has too much range for the majority of missions AA would send it on (e.g. transatlantic and Latin America). Better to buy the A330neo for those routes and continue deploying the B787-9 to Asia...


Why not exercise 787 options instead of A330neos? If the price is competitive (Boeing has been working on cost reduction and boosting 787 production rates should help), it would alleviate the concern of having too many fleet types. American could try to convert A350s into more narrowbodies. The A320s and 737-800s built in the late 1990s will be due for retirement when the current orders for MAX and NEOs are complete.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:02 pm

It seems this post was well timed. :biggrin:

I think in this trade-off we shouldn't ignore the A350 is the must-have 300-350 seats /8000NM platform at this stage. AA & Leahy know all the numbers. It seems AA is negotiating price via the press.

If the A330 fleet is aging more 787-9s seem a no brainer & A330NEO will be pulled just to create bargain power in negotiations.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:08 pm

Based on the comments from the Bloomberg article it looks like the A350 order is toast. I think the 330Neo probably makes more sense for AA. They can use the 789 for longer trans-pacific routes along with their 77W's. Why introduce another fleet type when it is really not needed?

Also, AA already already operates a large 330 fleet and they are very familiar with it. Ditto the 787. Maybe AA needs the 35K many years down the road when they start to retire their 77W's....but right now...not so much.

I am sure AA will work out something with Airbus. No way Airbus wants to piss off the largest airline in the world.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:08 pm

There had been unofficial talk about AA and DL trading slots of 350s and 787s. As Delta has the outstanding Northwest 787 order and AA with the ex US Airways A350.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:09 pm

Speedbirdasia wrote:
There had been unofficial talk about AA and DL trading slots of 350s and 787s. As Delta has the outstanding Northwest 787 order and AA with the ex US Airways A350.




DL cancelled the 18 787 NW order over a year ago.
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keesje
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:19 pm

The A350s offer more payload-range, comfort, bigger wings for hot airports and a growth option (-1000) for Asian flights. The 787-9 & -10 are better dimensioned for America's and Europe in this case.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:27 pm

It feels weird to be hearing about 777 replacements. I never had much affection for the plane, but I wonder how that will change when they finally say goodbye.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:00 pm

keesje wrote:
The A350s offer more payload-range, comfort, bigger wings for hot airports and a growth option (-1000) for Asian flights. The 787-9 & -10 are better dimensioned for America's and Europe in this case.


Correct for the 787-10, but the 787-9 can do very well for US-Asia. As you know. The claim that AA should have A350s given its current fleet needs really creative arguments. Or alternative facts.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:04 pm

keesje wrote:
The A350s offer more payload-range, comfort, bigger wings for hot airports and a growth option (-1000) for Asian flights. The 787-9 & -10 are better dimensioned for America's and Europe in this case.


I think you have it backwards. AA's high capacity routes are EZE, GRU and LHR. That's where their biggest planes need to go. Without a main transpacific gateway, AA flies thinner routes or routes with competitors so the 787 is better sized for transpacific. The exact opposite is true for UA.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:02 pm

tlecam wrote:
The comments about the small fleet make sense, but they're interesting when thinking about alternatives for the wide body fleet - what are AA's options long term? All Boeing 787/777? A mix of 339/787/777? Would a carrier AA's size put all of their wide body eggs in one manufacturer basket (Boeing?) The combination of risk management and fleet optimization is fascinating to me.


I honestly thought that was what United was going to do with their wide-body fleet, making it an all-Boeing fleet. Then again, everyone thought Untied's A350 order was dead.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:43 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Based on the comments from the Bloomberg article it looks like the A350 order is toast.


That's exactly what the "experts" said about UA's A350 order. :scratchchin:
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Austin787
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:31 pm

I can see the A350 replacing the 777-200ER fleet eventually. Probably after 2020 though.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:42 pm

Boeing seems to have an advantage being that 787 is already in the fleet.

If AA keeps A359 it may look something like this:
788 for Europe and seasonal Asia/South Pacific
789 for Asia and South Pacific
7810 to complement 77W on trunk routes (LHR, EZE, GRU) and replace shorter 772 routes
A359 to replace longer 767/A330 (up-gauge/growth) and 772 routes
MoM to replace shorter 757/767 routes


Alternatively, if they can get out of A359, they can just get more 789 and 7810:
787 to Europe and seasonal Asia/South Pacific
789 to Asia, South Pacific, and longer 767/A330 and 772 routes
7810 to complement 77W on trunk routes and replace shorter 772 routes
MoM to replace shorter 757/767 routes
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Based on the comments from the Bloomberg article it looks like the A350 order is toast.


That's exactly what the "experts" said about UA's A350 order. :scratchchin:



You did read the Bloomberg article...right? What gives you confidence the order will happen? As for UA....I don't know who the "experts" are...maybe you could enlighten me, but the circumstances at UA are obviously very different than AA.

Based on the article there does not appear a strong desire for AA to pick up the 350. Maybe you saw something different. If so, I'd love to know what it is.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:09 am

Sooner787 wrote:
I'm sure AA could swap those 359 orders for more A321Neo's if they wanted.
AA has like 75 - 80 B738's delivered in 2000 that additional NEO's could replace.


Ha Ha. HAHAHAHA. Oh my gosh, thanks for the laugh, I needed one!
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:33 am

Austin787 wrote:
I can see the A350 replacing the 777-200ER fleet eventually. Probably after 2020 though.


Why is it that the 787-9 is not an appropriate replacement for the 77E?
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:43 am

incitatus wrote:
Austin787 wrote:
I can see the A350 replacing the 777-200ER fleet eventually. Probably after 2020 though.


Why is it that the 787-9 is not an appropriate replacement for the 77E?


It is an appropriate aircraft, but the issue with AA is that it has the 22 A350s on order from the US Airways order. So the question becomes what to do with that order. A transfer to narrowbody is unlikely given the large number of 7M8s and A321neos on order already. Per the bloomberg article, it seems they feel 22 frames is too small, so they have the option to order more to make a fleet the size they feel comfortable, swap to the A330 of some variant to compliment the existing A330 fleet, or cancel the order. Seems the cancellation option is unlikely due to the cost for nothing, so, if that's true, then some form of Airbus widebody will be some form of widebody replacement, including some of the 77Es. So the issue isn't really about the 787-9, but a legacy order that has to be handled in a way the help the company.
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:08 am

Revelation wrote:
KarelXWB wrote:

There's very interesting / raw / unguarded comments from the C-suite in that article:

“I don’t like small fleets in an airline our size,” Isom told American pilots at a question-and-answer session Aug. 29, a recording of which was heard by Bloomberg News. “It’s exceptional pricing. Unfortunately, pricing is just one aspect of trying to fly something profitably.”


It sounds to me that they are publicly pressuring Airbus to give them the same exceptional pricing for additional A350's. I would imagine United got a pretty good deal when they recently ordered more A350's and they want the same deal.
 
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:12 am

incitatus wrote:
Why is it that the 787-9 is not an appropriate replacement for the 77E?


It is, and that's why I would not be at all surprised to see more 789s ordered, and the A350 order swapped for A338s/A339s to compliment the rather youngish A332 fleet. Throw in a few 787-10s too for extra capacity TATL hub to hub flying.
 
HPAEAA
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:31 am

KarelXWB wrote:

Also gotta love the quote that AA calls 22 aircraft "a small fleet".

I remember something similar when they retired the A300 fleet a few years back, Not sure if LUS mgmt or LAA mgmt wins here, LUS would analyze the deal at hand where LAA was always more analytical of the economies of scale... it's interesting watching DL whose put together a more micro fleet strategy, curious how that will play out long term, A320 fleet replacement might be an early indicator...

Polot wrote:
Adding to the A350 order would have interesting implications for the fairly young 15 frame A332 fleet. If they think 22 frames is a "small" fleet...

A332 was inherited from LUS which was a large WB fleet for them, I'm not convinced that the order would have ever gone through had they been merged earlier.
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jagraham
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:42 am

keesje wrote:
It seems this post was well timed. :biggrin:

I think in this trade-off we shouldn't ignore the A350 is the must-have 300-350 seats /8000NM platform at this stage. AA & Leahy know all the numbers. It seems AA is negotiating price via the press.

If the A330 fleet is aging more 787-9s seem a no brainer & A330NEO will be pulled just to create bargain power in negotiations.



At this moment, AA is the smallest legacy in overseas flying. Especially to Asia. How much AA needs 8000 miles depends upon how much AA will expand Asia flying.

And don't forget the 20 new 77Ws (with 4 PIPs).

I believe the A339 is better because there are a lot of places AA does not need the range and they can get more frames for the buck. And the Trent 7000 will put the A339 in shouting range of the A359 fuel consumption wise. Airbus has more price flexibility on A339s, and a lower starting price. And there is the question of how low Boeing will go on more 789s (although the rate increase helps insure AA would not have to wait too long).

One dark horse relates to the Finnair sale/leaseback comment. AA could arrange to take delivery of and immediately sell the A359s - probably for a nice profit - if they really don't want them . .
 
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IslandRob
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:59 am

scbriml wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Based on the comments from the Bloomberg article it looks like the A350 order is toast.


That's exactly what the "experts" said about UA's A350 order. :scratchchin:


Yeah, but weren't they talking about the A350-1000 order? And wasn't that order indeed toast? -ir
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:29 am

AA's international route network has rather short routes (LATAM and TATL). No need for the A350's range at this stage.
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Boeing778X
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:06 am

keesje wrote:
IMO a combined order of ~40 787-9/-10s and A350-900/1000's is on the agenda.


A dream of yours indeed, but I don't think so :shakehead:

Let's look at the stats.

AA currently has:

A:
15x A330-200
9x A330-300
22x A350-900 (on order)

B:
28x 767-300ER
47x 777-200ER
20x 777-300ER
20x 787-8
11x 787-9 (+11x on order)

And that includes 58x(?) 787 options yet to be exercised.

The current issues:

-The A330-300s are being retired starting in just a few months. The aircraft are older are are powered by PW engines, which makes them an oddball subfleet.
-777-200ERs will need to be replaced in the next decade. With the exception of two 2006 build units, all were delivered between 1999 and 2003.
-The fate of the A350 order, a remnant of US Airways, is up in the air. The decision will be whether to grow, convert, defer further or cancel outright.
-The number of 787 options allow for the retirement of all 777-200ERs with a little growth.

Twice in the last several months, the Airbus A350-900 has been deferred by AA. The original delivery date was to actually be now in 2017, then to 2018, and now, to 2020.

http://atwonline.com/airframes/american ... -back-2020

There is a lot of discussion about what AA will do. The most intriguing assumption thus far is a possible conversion to another model, specifically the A330neo. Recently, there was a little discussion about the A330-800neo.

The 767-300ER fleet is beginning to dwindle. Non retrofitted 763s are being phased out at a steady pace. Unfortunately, the aircraft remains unpopular and unreliable, and now that the aircraft are/will be doing new int'l routes such as DFW-AMS, PHL-PRG and PHL-BUD, it's dependability is imperative.

Here's my argument. A conversion from the 22x A350-900 to, say 25-30x A330neo is a win-win for both AA and Airbus. AA, because in getting the A330neo and basing them at MIA and PHL, they have a reliable 763 replacement that is common with the young A330-200s in service. The A330 fleet would go from an oddball subfleet to a major subfleet within AA, and Airbus, because they will have freed up A350 slots and another huge airline with the A330neo, something the program could use.

The A330neos, as stated, could be based in PHL and MIA for Europe/South America flying.

The 777-200ER remains the most numerous widebody at AA. The aircraft are currently being fitted with Premium Economy, with a total seat count of 273, with two other layouts containing 260 and 289 seats. All 77Es will be retrofitted with Premium Economy.

The 787-9, the newest addition to AAs Int'l fleet, was the first aircraft delivered with Premium Economy, with seating for 285 seats.

Considering the amount of 787 options AA has, there are more than enough to replace each and every 77E one for one. The seat count is quite similar, which leads me to believe the 787-9 is the ideal 77E replacement for AA. It's already established in the fleet, and is already doing routes that were served be the 77E just last year.

The A350-900, in general, is just as ideal a 77E replacement as its American counterpart, as proven be the recent conversion by UA from 35x A35Ks to 45x A359s.

The situation of AA is different, the way I see it. AA never ordered the A350, and probably never would have on their own. Very little has been done in preparation for the aircraft and there is very little fanfare and enthusiasm in corporate. The previous quarterly meeting was no better.

As for the A350-1000, it's not going to happen. As stated in other threads, the 777 and A350 are not mutually exclusive, but the addition of the A350-1000 saturates a size bracket already well served by the 777-300ER, which are new and not going anywhere. Further acquisition of aircraft this size would likely be additional 777s, even the 777-9.

The 787-10 is possible as well. It does make a good TATL aircraft for AA, and time will tell if they go for it. Right now, I don't see immediately likely. I also don't see additional 787-8s.

Going forward, I see AAs 2020-2022 fleet being:

A330-200 - Replaces 767-300ER
A330-800/-900 - Replaces 767-300ER and A330-300
787-8
787-9 - Replaces 777-200ER
777-300ER
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ElroyJetson
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Re: AA 777-200ER replacement, A350 , 787-9 order potential

Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:36 am

Great analysis. It makes sense that AA would ultimately rationalize their long haul fleet around the 787, A330, and 777. I cannot image any mission or market contingency those 3 aircraft could not cover when you look at AA's international route network.

Why introduce another plane type that is not necessary and incur the additional costs of training and maintenance for a relatively small sub-fleet?
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