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LAX772LR
Posts: 9374
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:41 am

Nola wrote:
msycajun wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
I hope DL doesn't start MSY-Europe. I don't want to see BA and DE suffer, which I'm sure they would in some respect if DL starts a flight, granted BA moreso.

I'd like to see a MSY-CDG flight but not this soon. The nonstop European market needs time to mature. Let's revisit the idea in two years. Until then, quite happy with direct service to LHR and FRA!

I'd gladly trade DE's limited seasonal service for a year-round service to CDG with more frequency.

Love to see all three coexist... but if the choice was sacrificing DE and its meager schedule to gain a much more flexible network carrier to a larger hub? Definitely would rather that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 9374
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:48 am

ibhalla wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ibhalla wrote:
Good point, good point. Delta is very conservative with long haul

There's lots of evidence against that. 77Ls to JNB - the only U.S. carrier serving JNB. Lagos. Malaga.
Past efforts to Bucharest, Kiev, Amman, Pisa...

We'll see. Also, these weren't too recent, or are they that successful.

And yet you're comparing them to routes that haven't even started yet, much less succeeded-- all while using that to disparage the airline (who actually took the risk of starting them) as somehow being overly reserved.

...that's not logically consistent.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 392
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:53 am

Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
If the strategy is to build current focus cities, I don't see why not. BHM is launching in December, so I'd think in the next 2 months we'll hear about February adds.

Ditto, I have a feeling something is coming Sept 23rd
The question is though, what defines a focus city? The way the original poster describes it leaves it pretty vague....

gsg013 wrote:
I sure hope DL expands out of BNA. I know they have the one JFK departure generally used to feed INTL connections I wish they did a few more Point to Point routes out of BNA like they are doing out of RDU. I keep mentioning this route but they should throw a RJ on BNA-EWR. It is a great O&D route with high fares and high yields. I know a ton of Nashville folks that would love to jump on that rather than going to LGA who also would pay a significant premium to avoid UA to EWR. (Maybe I have wishful thinking).

BNA could also use a DL non-stop to Europe (I know BA will be flying the 787-8 soon). I think its not a matter of if but when DL adds something. They could use the JV with VS to throw an 787 on BNA-LHR daily. Alternatively DL could fly a 763 to either CDG or AMS.


I think this all depends on how willing DL is to expand "focus cities," and how willing WN is to react. There have been rumors of p2p routes out of BNA, like BDL so it is not out of the question.

With regards to DL TATL flights, I would be pretty surprised if DL added a TATL this year from BNA, as DL probably wants to see how the BA flight pans out.


I think the speculation has gotten a little out of hand. There are cities getting their first TATL flights, and people are speculating on which route gets opened next. It's likely some of the announced flights from smaller US cities are not going to stick. If we revisit all the new planned routes a couple years from now, there's going to be more than a few of these experiments that have failed.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:20 am

AAvgeek744 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
If the strategy is to build current focus cities, I don't see why not. BHM is launching in December, so I'd think in the next 2 months we'll hear about February adds.

Ditto, I have a feeling something is coming Sept 23rd
The question is though, what defines a focus city? The way the original poster describes it leaves it pretty vague....

gsg013 wrote:
I sure hope DL expands out of BNA. I know they have the one JFK departure generally used to feed INTL connections I wish they did a few more Point to Point routes out of BNA like they are doing out of RDU. I keep mentioning this route but they should throw a RJ on BNA-EWR. It is a great O&D route with high fares and high yields. I know a ton of Nashville folks that would love to jump on that rather than going to LGA who also would pay a significant premium to avoid UA to EWR. (Maybe I have wishful thinking).

BNA could also use a DL non-stop to Europe (I know BA will be flying the 787-8 soon). I think its not a matter of if but when DL adds something. They could use the JV with VS to throw an 787 on BNA-LHR daily. Alternatively DL could fly a 763 to either CDG or AMS.


I think this all depends on how willing DL is to expand "focus cities," and how willing WN is to react. There have been rumors of p2p routes out of BNA, like BDL so it is not out of the question.

With regards to DL TATL flights, I would be pretty surprised if DL added a TATL this year from BNA, as DL probably wants to see how the BA flight pans out.


I think the speculation has gotten a little out of hand. There are cities getting their first TATL flights, and people are speculating on which route gets opened next. It's likely some of the announced flights from smaller US cities are not going to stick. If we revisit all the new planned routes a couple years from now, there's going to be more than a few of these experiments that have failed.


Out of hand? I'm not sure how this is any different than any other thread, people speculate on what route will be added next or what route will be cut next all the time. There is even a thread right now about future routes from IAH, and there have been threads talking about future routes like BNA-LHR or IND-CDG as well. We have no idea whether some routes will succeed or fail, but that doesn't mean discussing future additions is "out of hand" and it also doesn't mean we shouldn't speculate on what might come next...
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
ibhalla
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:30 am

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:27 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ibhalla wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
There's lots of evidence against that. 77Ls to JNB - the only U.S. carrier serving JNB. Lagos. Malaga.
Past efforts to Bucharest, Kiev, Amman, Pisa...

We'll see. Also, these weren't too recent, or are they that successful.

And yet you're comparing them to routes that haven't even started yet, much less succeeded-- all while using that to disparage the airline (who actually took the risk of starting them) as somehow being overly reserved.

...that's not logically consistent.


That's not what I was really talking about. You removed a fraction of my statement and took it out of context. My point is simple. Delta is more weary and more conservative when starting international routes, especially when they aren't from ATL.
Houstonian avgeek (is that a thing?) and frequent flyer. Qantas is my fav airline. (JetBlue is a close 2nd.)
 
Nola
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu May 29, 2014 1:40 am

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:10 pm

Actually, the conservative Delta pretty much went away when Glen Hauenstein was hired from Alitalia to run network/route planning. Prior to Italy, Hauenstein ran Continental's route planning and was recommended to Gerry Grinstein by Gordon Bethune, at least according to Seth Kaplan's "Glory Lost and Found", which is a book about Delta's decent into bankruptcy and rise to become the most profitable carrier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stock ... pId=266311

https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/099 ... UTF8&psc=1
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 392
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:31 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AAvgeek744 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Ditto, I have a feeling something is coming Sept 23rd
The question is though, what defines a focus city? The way the original poster describes it leaves it pretty vague....



I think this all depends on how willing DL is to expand "focus cities," and how willing WN is to react. There have been rumors of p2p routes out of BNA, like BDL so it is not out of the question.

With regards to DL TATL flights, I would be pretty surprised if DL added a TATL this year from BNA, as DL probably wants to see how the BA flight pans out.


I think the speculation has gotten a little out of hand. There are cities getting their first TATL flights, and people are speculating on which route gets opened next. It's likely some of the announced flights from smaller US cities are not going to stick. If we revisit all the new planned routes a couple years from now, there's going to be more than a few of these experiments that have failed.


Out of hand? I'm not sure how this is any different than any other thread, people speculate on what route will be added next or what route will be cut next all the time. There is even a thread right now about future routes from IAH, and there have been threads talking about future routes like BNA-LHR or IND-CDG as well. We have no idea whether some routes will succeed or fail, but that doesn't mean discussing future additions is "out of hand" and it also doesn't mean we shouldn't speculate on what might come next...


Merely my opinion. I see the names of cities pop up that will never get TATL service. If all the speculation I've read here over the years were true, EK would be flying to Omaha and SQ would have a hub in Boise. (yeah, yeah...sarcasm, but that's often how it seems). If my posts offend you, feel free to look past them.
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6632
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:03 pm

jumbojet wrote:
The only thing Delta will add TPAC is more flights to ICN and most likely it will mean taking over one of the Korean flights from JFK and maybe adding LAX.

I think your comment re: JFK-ICN is very interesting. What are, in your opinion or to your knowledge, the reasons why DL would take over one of the JFK-ICN flights? That would have to be a 777-200ER/LR or A359 route, no? I do not believe JFK is in DL's plans for A359 deployment and I honestly don't know if today any DL 777 serves JFK (they might, I just don't know). Seems to me a combo of KE A380-748i or A380-77W or 748i-77W is ideal for KE/DL's JFK-ICN services.
Upcoming AM MEX-LAX 73H, VA LAX-MEL 77W.
 
Capn
Posts: 75
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:07 pm

Hope I didn't confuse I was only talking about domestic adds between possible new focus cities and large business markets.
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:23 pm

jubguy3 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:

Its true DL only flies to LGA. But why all this talk about MKE to ATL. What would prevent people from just connecting through DTW on DL. Pretty similar to connecting through ORD.


Because you can only get one stop service over DTW to 4 cities year round everything else is a double connect unless you got to ATL. A MKE-AMS nonstop would give you one stop service in Europe to many of the skyteam destinations.


So then go to ATL... if your primary concern is reducing stops, the options exist. There are much larger markets for AMS than MKE, especially considering the lack of premium demand. Otherwise stopping in DTW and AMS shouldn't add significantly to trip times for tertiary Europe.

Why don't all cities have flights to Asia to avoid triple stops into secondary Asian markets? Because the demand doesn't exist.


Demand for secondary Asian markets is huge. But not infinite. Guangzhou is considered a secondary market, but it has 14 million in the city and 44 million in the metro area. More than any "primary" market. Yes it is China and the percentage of the population flying places is less, but that is still huge. And there are many similar stories across Asia.

Service to places like Guangzhou is limited by airport limitations imposed by the Chinese government. There are no "open skies", so bilateral agreements must be negotiated. Limiting the number of flights and insuring the supremacy of local carriers.

Flying to secondary cities could double or triple if there were slots available. To the right places.
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:27 pm

EddieDude wrote:
jumbojet wrote:
The only thing Delta will add TPAC is more flights to ICN and most likely it will mean taking over one of the Korean flights from JFK and maybe adding LAX.

I think your comment re: JFK-ICN is very interesting. What are, in your opinion or to your knowledge, the reasons why DL would take over one of the JFK-ICN flights? That would have to be a 777-200ER/LR or A359 route, no? I do not believe JFK is in DL's plans for A359 deployment and I honestly don't know if today any DL 777 serves JFK (they might, I just don't know). Seems to me a combo of KE A380-748i or A380-77W or 748i-77W is ideal for KE/DL's JFK-ICN services.


DL 777s have flown out of JFK (a relative of mine used to fly one to NRT). The better question is how far can the 777 fleet stretch? And how much growth can the 242t A339s and the A359s provide? Since the 767 fleet is slowly shrinking? And the 747s have less than a year left?

Besides, DL and KE are on much better terms now than in the Richard Anderson era. A JV might be sufficient, and allow the big twins to go places they are needed more.
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
jagraham wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

The fault in your logic is that you're not considering the fragmentation that's faced in a market like Chicago. While Chicago may generate some 40 million domestic O&D passengers annually, it's being pretty equally distributed amongst AA, UA and WN. DL on the other hand handily dominates its four largest hubs, so while MSP only generates around 15 million domestic O&D passengers each year, DL is controlling a large swath of this market and controlling pricing. While the big cities are more glamorous, they are not the most profitable. NYC is a massive market but likely on the lower end for profitability compared to the other legacy fortress hubs. Also, DL is a close second in New York and a more distant second in LA, so DL does have a major presence in the two most important US markets. DL's strategy is working just fine as their balance sheet and income statements continually show.

Jeremy



With respect to population, over 107 million, or a third of the country, lives in the top ten metro areas. And the top ten metro areas have a disproportionate share of the Fortune 500 headquarters and their travel needs.

90% of the origin or destination traffic coming from the top ten metro areas has been covered in other a.net threads. One example
viewtopic.php?t=558079
So while 1/3 of the population lives in the top ten metro areas, a disproportionate 90% of air travel touches one of these metro areas on one end of the trip. Not counting connections.

Hence, the top ten metro areas are more significant than their population (even at 1/3 of the country) would suggest.

My point is that before consolidation, a regional strategy worked well. After consolidation, with three airlines serving most of the top ten metro areas with 90% of trips originating or ending in one of these metro areas, a regional strategy does not work as well.

Delta has tacitly acknowledged that with its moves in New York and LAX. Especially, the T2/T3 acquisition at LAX will allow Delta to become #1 in LA, and be a better partner to the Skyteam members that serve LAX.

American consolidated last. And US and HP never fully consolidated, so there are more underlying issues to be dealt with than the usual merger. Nevertheless, AA has the hubs. And the planes to service metro areas 11 thru 20 from the 7 hubs and 2 focus cities they already have. A lot can (and maybe should) be said about aircraft strategy and risk tolerance, but my point is that AA, and to a great extent WN, only have to rejig their schedules to provide multiple nonstops for 95% of trips in the US. Delta has farther to go to hit that data point. Delta can do it with the hubs they have, but it requires more point to point flying. And more of a presence at airports where somebody else has a hub. Maybe even a fortress hub. Is it easier for AA to fly its frequent flyers to DTW or MSP, or DL to fly its frequent flyers to DFW or MIA?

when did Delta become #1 in LA????



DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.
 
EddieDude
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:17 pm

jagraham wrote:
DL 777s have flown out of JFK (a relative of mine used to fly one to NRT). The better question is how far can the 777 fleet stretch? And how much growth can the 242t A339s and the A359s provide? Since the 767 fleet is slowly shrinking? And the 747s have less than a year left?

Besides, DL and KE are on much better terms now than in the Richard Anderson era. A JV might be sufficient, and allow the big twins to go places they are needed more.

Well, DL's JFK-NRT is gone and I am not sure if any 777s remain at JFK. The DL 777 fleet cannot be stretched more than it is I suppose. DL has very specific missions for the 777s and I believe they have little slack.

The A339s have been deferred, no? And probably it is not the right plane for JFK-Asia. Some A359s are already joining, but some have also been deferred, so expect to see them at DTW at first (and ATL-PVG).

My original point was and still is that DL and KE are probably better off if KE continues to operate the two JFK-ICN flights. The biggies at KE (A380, 748i and 77W) seem to be right for this route.
Upcoming AM MEX-LAX 73H, VA LAX-MEL 77W.
 
ldvaviation
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:21 pm

jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


According to LAWA, the 27 gates that T2/T3 is expected to have upon completion of the Delta project would already be oversubscribed at peak times now.

Moreover, it's 27 gates only for all Group III aircraft. With a mix of planes, some larger than that, there will be numerous gate dependencies, reducing available gates at any one time from 3 to 4.

There isn't room now or in the future at T2/T3 for Delta to expand to 300 flights.

See the Final EIR. LAWA addressed the subject of gate dependencies and current/future demand for gates.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:15 am

Midwestindy wrote:
I'm actually pretty surprised more p2p routes haven't gone year-round, CMH-MCO I could see going year-round, and I'm pretty surprised AUS/MSY/MSN-MCO haven't been added (but I expect some may be added by the end of the fall).


CMH-MCO is in one sense a "We have nothing else to do with an S5 E175 today" route, but it's run for years and even ran on an MD-88 or A319 (depending on what DL felt like scheduling each weekend) during Spring Break last year, so it has to at least do reasonably well and I'm surprised DL hasn't done more with it.
A310/319/320/321/333, ARJ, BN2, B722/73S/733/734/735/73G/738/739/744/757/753/767/763/764/777, CR1/2/7/9, DH6, 328, EM2/ERJ/E70/E75/E90, F28/100, J31, L10/12/15, DC9/D93/D94/D95/M80/M88/M90/D10, SF3, SST
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:28 am

ldvaviation wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


According to LAWA, the 27 gates that T2/T3 is expected to have upon completion of the Delta project would already be oversubscribed at peak times now.

Moreover, it's 27 gates only for all Group III aircraft. With a mix of planes, some larger than that, there will be numerous gate dependencies, reducing available gates at any one time from 3 to 4.

There isn't room now or in the future at T2/T3 for Delta to expand to 300 flights.

See the Final EIR. LAWA addressed the subject of gate dependencies and current/future demand for gates.



Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.
 
jagraham
Posts: 202
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:38 am

EddieDude wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DL 777s have flown out of JFK (a relative of mine used to fly one to NRT). The better question is how far can the 777 fleet stretch? And how much growth can the 242t A339s and the A359s provide? Since the 767 fleet is slowly shrinking? And the 747s have less than a year left?

Besides, DL and KE are on much better terms now than in the Richard Anderson era. A JV might be sufficient, and allow the big twins to go places they are needed more.

Well, DL's JFK-NRT is gone and I am not sure if any 777s remain at JFK. The DL 777 fleet cannot be stretched more than it is I suppose. DL has very specific missions for the 777s and I believe they have little slack.

The A339s have been deferred, no? And probably it is not the right plane for JFK-Asia. Some A359s are already joining, but some have also been deferred, so expect to see them at DTW at first (and ATL-PVG).

My original point was and still is that DL and KE are probably better off if KE continues to operate the two JFK-ICN flights. The biggies at KE (A380, 748i and 77W) seem to be right for this route.



Without arguing your original point (I agree with the conclusion, but for different reasons), I cannot find anything about deferring A339s. Ten A359s have been deferred to 2021 or later. When the A339s and the rest of the 242t A338s arrive at Delta, they will allow A359s and 777s to be deployed elsewhere.
 
reggiet
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:41 am

adtall wrote:
777Mech wrote:
I would look toward where DL has a huge FF base, and what immediately comes to mind is BNA, MCI, AUS, PVD and JAX

I can see the first 3 getting AMS service, with the latter 2 getting seasonal AMS or CDG service. JAX is the shot in the dark though.


It likely is a consideration, but this should already play out in the route network from those cities, and so far the domestic route network has proved a decent predictor. I'm defining hubs/focus cities as ATL, NYC (JFK and/or LGA), BOS, DTW, MSP, SLC, LAX, SEA, RDU, CVG, and MCO, and please correct if I missed a route or two.

To use IND as an example, they have flights to all those cities except SEA and CVG (obviously).
CMH is connected to every DL US hub/focus with the exception of SEA, SLC, and (as with IND) CVG.
AUS - connected (or soon to be) to all major DL cities except MCO and CVG.
MCI - missing RDU, MCO, and SEA.
BNA - every hub/focus city connected or soon to be except MCO.
MKE - has SEA, CVG, and BOS but missing LAX, RDU, and MCO.
BDL is ATL/DTW/MSP plus CVG and RDU, not much route-wise (for obvious reasons no NYC/BOS).
TPA has all cities except SEA and MCO (for obvious reasons).

So, assuming six (the theoretical number of TATL routes this year) and also taking two off the board for IND-CDG and MCO-AMS, if I guessed I'd say AUS, TPA, CMH, and maybe BNA. All these cities (maybe excepting BDL) are small focus cities already so they already have the foundation to expand into non-DL stronghold routes if DL wants to grow them.

*edited for format



Yes, regarding AUS routes you're correct. The station already includes all of your listed focus cities except MCO and CVG. RDU started a month ago, a BOS nonstop actually starts next week, SEA goes to twice daily next month (likely 3x daily next spring), and JFK & LAX are both 3x daily.
Reggie in Austin
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:46 am

EddieDude wrote:
[ I do not believe JFK is in DL's plans for A359 deployment and I honestly don't know if today any DL 777 serves JFK (they might, I just don't know). Seems to me a combo of KE A380-748i or A380-77W or 748i-77W is ideal for KE/DL's JFK-ICN services.


The only thing mission specific that Delta has publicly said about the 350 is that it would fly TPAC. As to what airports, already we see DTW and ATL. It could certainly wind up doing something out of JFK but again, based on what DL has said, it will be TPAC. DL flies the 777 on JFK - TLV. That is the only 777 flight into and out of JFK at the current time.
 
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flymco753
Posts: 1615
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:12 am

I wonder what, if anything, will replace the 332 tacked on DTW-NGO...
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
tphuang
Posts: 539
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:27 am

jagraham wrote:
ldvaviation wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


According to LAWA, the 27 gates that T2/T3 is expected to have upon completion of the Delta project would already be oversubscribed at peak times now.

Moreover, it's 27 gates only for all Group III aircraft. With a mix of planes, some larger than that, there will be numerous gate dependencies, reducing available gates at any one time from 3 to 4.

There isn't room now or in the future at T2/T3 for Delta to expand to 300 flights.

See the Final EIR. LAWA addressed the subject of gate dependencies and current/future demand for gates.



Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.

it doesn't really work that way. But if you choose to believe it, sure.
 
MAH4546
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Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:50 am

jagraham wrote:
ldvaviation wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


According to LAWA, the 27 gates that T2/T3 is expected to have upon completion of the Delta project would already be oversubscribed at peak times now.

Moreover, it's 27 gates only for all Group III aircraft. With a mix of planes, some larger than that, there will be numerous gate dependencies, reducing available gates at any one time from 3 to 4.

There isn't room now or in the future at T2/T3 for Delta to expand to 300 flights.

See the Final EIR. LAWA addressed the subject of gate dependencies and current/future demand for gates.



Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.


Delta had access to upwards of 16-18 gates at T5/T6, sharing with AS. It is not doubling its gate count. It's not adding many gates at all, actually, just a more cohesive facility with easier access to partner flights, many of which will share the gates.
a.
 
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tlecam
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:00 am

Minor comment - Aus-Bos started this week I believe. Or rather, it flew Sunday, Monday and Tuesday on a 319 this week.
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reggiet
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Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 5:04 am

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:12 am

flymco753 wrote:
I find this interesting, so if you go on the flydelta app, you'll see that in terms of domestic "hubs", MCO is included in the advanced terminal maps where it shows you a picture of virtually the whole airport. I was intrigued to know if this is a nudge towards formally calling MCO a focus city. I also think a case can be presented for more RJ flying to destinations like AUS, MSY, and perhaps TVC and MSN on a seasonal basis. The thing is, you know DL isn't going to add p2p on routes like ORD/MDW, EWR, IAD, IAH, DFW, DEN, PDX, etc. because of the fact they are major hubs for other carriers other than DL, so I think the focus for MCO p2p will stay on markets without other major carriers being dominant. I expect more p2p to be announced in the next year along with daily RJ service to current markets served on a weekend basis.


FWIW regarding AUS RJs, we heard a year ago that Delta wanted the station to become a non RJ station. The Delta manager confirmed that fact in staff conversation later in the year. (We were taking a bunch of delays each month tied into our regionals vs our manlines. Of course, a delay is a delay regardless of who's flying the customer).
Subsequent aircraft changes, with the exception of the current RDU as a CRJ-900, have confirmed the switch. It's an airbus station, to include 2 daily ATL 321s, for 99% of Deltas structure here. At least until TATL starts next spring
Reggie in Austin
 
reggiet
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:25 am

tlecam wrote:
Minor comment - Aus-Bos started this week I believe. Or rather, it flew Sunday, Monday and Tuesday on a 319 this week.


I've been out of station for several days. Thanks for the update
Reggie in Austin
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:31 am

ibhalla wrote:
You removed a fraction of my statement and took it out of context.

Ironic: you speak of missing context, yet lack the wherewithal to notice WHY I quoted only that specific part of your statement.......


ibhalla wrote:
Delta is more weary and more conservative when starting international routes, especially when they aren't from ATL.

Just as an FYI: repeating it isn't going to make it any less false than the first time you inaccurately asserted such....
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
cessna2
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:33 am

reggiet wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I find this interesting, so if you go on the flydelta app, you'll see that in terms of domestic "hubs", MCO is included in the advanced terminal maps where it shows you a picture of virtually the whole airport. I was intrigued to know if this is a nudge towards formally calling MCO a focus city. I also think a case can be presented for more RJ flying to destinations like AUS, MSY, and perhaps TVC and MSN on a seasonal basis. The thing is, you know DL isn't going to add p2p on routes like ORD/MDW, EWR, IAD, IAH, DFW, DEN, PDX, etc. because of the fact they are major hubs for other carriers other than DL, so I think the focus for MCO p2p will stay on markets without other major carriers being dominant. I expect more p2p to be announced in the next year along with daily RJ service to current markets served on a weekend basis.


FWIW regarding AUS RJs, we heard a year ago that Delta wanted the station to become a non RJ station. The Delta manager confirmed that fact in staff conversation later in the year. (We were taking a bunch of delays each month tied into our regionals vs our manlines. Of course, a delay is a delay regardless of who's flying the customer).
Subsequent aircraft changes, with the exception of the current RDU as a CRJ-900, have confirmed the switch. It's an airbus station, to include 2 daily ATL 321s, for 99% of Deltas structure here. At least until TATL starts next spring

AUS-RDU switches to 717 on March 2nd, 2018. Look for more growth out of RDU as there are still some opportunities for DL there. CS100 deliveries will start in March with 2 aircraft being delivered a month freeing up 717's to go back east.
 
TW870
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:51 am

I think the development of new focus cities in the U.S. speaks as much to the immense strength of DL's AMS and CDG hubs as it does to the strength of the market in the focus city. In other words, the pull from AMS or CDG hubs (and on to tertiary Europe, south Asia, etc.) is as strong or stronger than the push out of the new markets on the U.S. side.

One question I have involves how they choose which of the two hubs to use. We see MSP and DTW with the massive AMS shuttles (MSP at 3x333 and 1xKL332 in the summer), some of the smaller DL markets with CDG service (IND, RDU, PHL and PIT on and off), but then some smaller DL markets to AMS (PDX and EWR). CDG is a bigger economic entity than AMS, so I am guessing the O+D numbers are usually higher there. But AMS is a particularly seamless hub that would seem to be the most friendly to new markets with a high percentage of connecting traffic. If they are going to start CMH (for example), what are the most important factors in the deciding which hub gets the metal?
 
jagraham
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:34 am

tphuang wrote:
jagraham wrote:
ldvaviation wrote:

According to LAWA, the 27 gates that T2/T3 is expected to have upon completion of the Delta project would already be oversubscribed at peak times now.

Moreover, it's 27 gates only for all Group III aircraft. With a mix of planes, some larger than that, there will be numerous gate dependencies, reducing available gates at any one time from 3 to 4.

There isn't room now or in the future at T2/T3 for Delta to expand to 300 flights.

See the Final EIR. LAWA addressed the subject of gate dependencies and current/future demand for gates.



Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.



it doesn't really work that way. But if you choose to believe it, sure.



American is on the verge of operating 220 daily departures at LAX
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/busin ... 38660.html
AA has 15 gates at T4, 4 gates at T5, 2 to 4 gates at TBIT and the 'Eagles Nest'. For 220+ departures.

DL's renovation isn't finalized, but the articles I referenced show they can go above 23 gates in T2 and T3 after renovation. They will have to tug fewer planes to their gates. DL will get TBIT access similar to AA. At 12 departures per gate per day, it's hard work, but certainly not impossible, to get to 300 daily departures. Meanwhile, AA is a moving target, and UA's new management has decided to get back into the hunt after letting LAX languish for quite a while. And the passenger count limitation consent decree has expired. So the race is on.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:49 am

TW870 wrote:
If they are going to start CMH (for example), what are the most important factors in the deciding which hub gets the metal?


Cargo could play a role, for example, Delta runs IND/CVG-CDG rather than IND/CVG-AMS partially because GE Aviation sends(or will send) engine parts on the flight to France.
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
panamair
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:49 am

jumbojet wrote:
DL flies the 777 on JFK - TLV. That is the only 777 flight into and out of JFK at the current time.


No, currently JFK-CDG also uses the 777. This past summer, the 777 was plying JFK-TLV, CDG, and BCN. BCN switched to the A333 post-Labor Day but CDG remained on the 777. However, with the upcoming winter schedule, there will be no more 777s at JFK as both CDG and TLV switch to the A333.
 
factsonly
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:24 am

panamair wrote:
However, with the upcoming winter schedule, there will be no more 777s at JFK as both CDG and TLV switch to the A333.


Upcoming Winter schedule the DL B772 will appear on 2x European routes from ATL & MSP, mixed with DL A333 and KL flights:

- MSP-AMS-MSP DL160/DL161 A333 (DL)
- MSP-AMS-MSP DL162/DL163 B772 (DL)
- MSP-AMS-MSP DL9471/DL9391 B789 (KLM)

- ATL-AMS-ATL DL9667/DL9275 B772 (KLM)
- ATL-AMS-ATL DL72/DL73 A333 (DL)
- ATL-AMS-ATL DL74/DL75 B772 (DL)
- ATL-AMS-ATL DL9375/DL9374 B772 (KLM)
 
tphuang
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:18 am

jagraham wrote:
tphuang wrote:
jagraham wrote:


Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.



it doesn't really work that way. But if you choose to believe it, sure.



American is on the verge of operating 220 daily departures at LAX
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/busin ... 38660.html
AA has 15 gates at T4, 4 gates at T5, 2 to 4 gates at TBIT and the 'Eagles Nest'. For 220+ departures.

DL's renovation isn't finalized, but the articles I referenced show they can go above 23 gates in T2 and T3 after renovation. They will have to tug fewer planes to their gates. DL will get TBIT access similar to AA. At 12 departures per gate per day, it's hard work, but certainly not impossible, to get to 300 daily departures. Meanwhile, AA is a moving target, and UA's new management has decided to get back into the hunt after letting LAX languish for quite a while. And the passenger count limitation consent decree has expired. So the race is on.

There are 9 gates at eagles nest. They run closer to 8 daily flights per gate. And once aa consolidates at t4 and t5, they will have at least 28 gates there on top of the few gates they have at tbit. They have room to grow if they want to. And they don't need to share with partners like delta has to. Aa will have an advantage in gates for a the foreseeable future. Others have already shown that delta had close to 18 gates in old setup and running at about 10 daily flights per gate. That was already so full That they they had many aircraft waiting for gates after landing. That's why they need the additional gates. They will probably add more flights once they finish configuring the new gates, but it's not as simple as flights = gates x 11. The widebody aircraft take longer time at gates and requires space of multiple gates. And they have to figure out a schedule that's profitable. Not that easy to just add flights in a competitive market.

How about delta gets in on the Chicago to lax market first before claiming its the number 1 carrier in la?
 
commavia
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:40 am

jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


Regarding all the back and forth on "#1 in LA" - I'd just say this: remember that for Delta to become #1 at LAX, it has to displace the airline that is currently #1. And that airline has its own considerable capacity expansion coming that, based on current plans, is going to entail more gates (both mainline and overall) than Delta will have.

It bears repeating, anyway, that the specific ranking in a market as large and fragmented at LAX isn't quite as important as in some other places, and that, because of said scale and fragmentation of the market, no airline will ever "dominate" LAX in the same way as other network carrier megahubs.

But given the framework that AA has announced and is developing with LAWA, it's going to be quite difficult for Delta to outpace AA at LAX if AA doesn't want them to - and to that point, Doug Parker has explicitly and publicly stated that AA is, paraphrasing, "in it to win it" at LAX.
 
klm617
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:18 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ibhalla wrote:
You removed a fraction of my statement and took it out of context.

Ironic: you speak of missing context, yet lack the wherewithal to notice WHY I quoted only that specific part of your statement.......


ibhalla wrote:
Delta is more weary and more conservative when starting international routes, especially when they aren't from ATL.

Just as an FYI: repeating it isn't going to make it any less false than the first time you inaccurately asserted such....


First of all that second statement is completely true. The only place Delta will operate a marginal route is out of ATL and other hub or airport the route is cut right away if it's not turning it's desired profit.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jumbojet
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:30 pm

commavia wrote:
jagraham wrote:
DL isn't #1 in LA yet. But the T2/T3 acquisition will allow DL to double their flying in LA. They will be close to 300 departures daily when it is all said and done.


Regarding all the back and forth on "#1 in LA" - I'd just say this: remember that for Delta to become #1 at LAX, it has to displace the airline that is currently #1. And that airline has its own considerable capacity expansion coming that, based on current plans, is going to entail more gates (both mainline and overall) than Delta will have.

It bears repeating, anyway, that the specific ranking in a market as large and fragmented at LAX isn't quite as important as in some other places, and that, because of said scale and fragmentation of the market, no airline will ever "dominate" LAX in the same way as other network carrier megahubs.

But given the framework that AA has announced and is developing with LAWA, it's going to be quite difficult for Delta to outpace AA at LAX if AA doesn't want them to - and to that point, Doug Parker has explicitly and publicly stated that AA is, paraphrasing, "in it to win it" at LAX.


DP can paraphrase all he wants. Doesn't mean he will be successful. If I were DP, I wouldn't underestimate the abilities of Delta (or even UA) to outpace them in the race to win LA. However, like others have said, LA will be pretty much split three ways between AA, UA and DL. I don't either of the airlines giving up at LA. If anything, AA has more to lose because they don't have a west coast hub. DL and UA do. In fact, I can easily see AA overdoing LA in its bid to be 'in it to win it'. I mean, just look at how mediocre they are currently doing on LAX - HKG and PVG and they also went seasonal on AKL. And its anyone's guess how PEK will work out. AA isn't a sure thing in LA like some people would like to believe. But if AA has a high tolerance for losing money out of LA than god bless them. If AA's definition of winning LA is having the most flights but at the same time losing the most money, than good for them; they win LA.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:53 pm

flymco753 wrote:
I wonder what, if anything, will replace the 332 tacked on DTW-NGO...


Something will. Id imagine a 350 when more come in. DTW-NGO is a market who's yields are far too high to be abandoned.
It is what it is...
 
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flymco753
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:58 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
I wonder what, if anything, will replace the 332 tacked on DTW-NGO...


Something will. Id imagine a 350 when more come in. DTW-NGO is a market who's yields are far too high to be abandoned.
The 339 could be a strong possibility too, not too big and it can keep the yields up.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
ldvaviation
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:29 pm

jagraham wrote:

Delta was operating 175 daily departures from T5 (13 gates). and a gate or two in T6 http://travelskills.com/2016/07/21/delt ... -plan-lax/

In addition DL expects to get exclusive use of 2 TBIT gates. And build a sterile connector similar to what AA has at T4

There is an interesting - and extensive - thread here viewtopic.php?t=605297

So YES - with about double the gates and TBIT access, Delta can get to around 300 flights daily.


Wrong. I referred you to the Final EIR on the project. Did you even care to look?

See p. 2-11. At any given time, there could be only 22 or 23 available gates out of the expected 27 at T2/T3. [Delta had 16 gates in T5/T6. T2/T3 will not have 32 gates with no gate dependencies.]

There's more. See p. 2-11. During the peak hour of 11:00 to noon, the current flight schedule (all T2/T3 airlines) creates a demand for 24 gates. [There are only 23 gates now in T3/T2.]

See p. 2-13. Post relocation (August 2017), during the peak hour of 9:30 to 10:30 a.m., the current flight schedule (all T2/T3 airlines) creates a demand for 28 gates. [Upon completion of the Delta project, T2/T3 will have 27 gates, one gate less than current demand.]

There is some room for growth in off-peak hours, but not for 125 flights.
 
jagraham
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Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:13 pm

I agree that AA will not stand idly by and lose #1 at LAX. They already grew to 220 flights and tried hard to grab all of T5. United also is doing new things at LAX under Munoz. Delta didn't commit to spend $1.9 billion to be #2. When the T5 renovation was just finishing up. And at the rate AA is growing, 250 departures will not be enough.
 
commavia
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:22 pm

jagraham wrote:
Delta didn't commit to spend $1.9 billion to be #2.


And let's just say that AA isn't spending $1.6B to be #2, either.

jagraham wrote:
And at the rate AA is growing, 250 departures will not be enough.


Again, under the current planning, AA will end up with more gates at LAX - both mainline and overall - than Delta.
 
papatango
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:15 pm

Is there a date when Delta plans to announce any new service to Europe or Asaia?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:55 pm

papatango wrote:
Is there a date when Delta plans to announce any new service to Europe or Asaia?


My best guess is Sept 23rd, I think there is probably a reason IND-CDG doesn't go on sale until then....
ATL BWI BOS CLT MDW ORD CVG DFW DAL DAB DEN DTW FLL RSW GNV BDL HNL IAH IND MCI LAS LAX SDF MEM MIA MKE MSP BNA EWR HVN MSY JFK LGA MCO SFB PHX PHL PVD RDU RAP RIC SLC STL CPS PIE SEA TPA DCA IAD
 
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flymco753
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
papatango wrote:
Is there a date when Delta plans to announce any new service to Europe or Asaia?


My best guess is Sept 23rd, I think there is probably a reason IND-CDG doesn't go on sale until then....
DL would really hit it out of the park if they did MCO-CDG in split of IND, I wouldn't think it'd cannibalize AMS that bad.
Whether you're here on business, returning home, or visiting our world class attractions, welcome to Orlando and Central Florida...
 
jagraham
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:07 pm

DL recently fixed SEA-ORD. I would have to presume LAX-ORD nonstop would be high on their list now that they have more gates.
 
ANA787
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:14 pm

PDX-CDG anyone?
 
winginit
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:31 pm

jagraham wrote:
DL recently fixed SEA-ORD. I would have to presume LAX-ORD nonstop would be high on their list now that they have more gates.


Again, while they do have more physical gates, that doesn't necessarily equate to expansion capacity as they're now sharing their T2/T3/TBIT gates with VS, EI, AM and WS. Additionally, as construction phasing begins next year, DL will actually at times be down up to two gates with additional constraints at the security checkpoints that will gradually fall under construction. Will there be expansion? Sure, but DL's move to T2/T3 hardly opens the floodgates for significantly more flights.
 
winginit
Posts: 1120
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:31 pm

ANA787 wrote:
PDX-CDG anyone?


I'd guess we'd see DL metal into CDG from LAX before PDX.
 
Capn
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:06 pm

Can anyone tell me how many flts. a day
AM has and how many WS have at LAX, how many gates they use?
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
AAvgeek744
Posts: 392
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Re: DL Future Expansion

Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:15 pm

winginit wrote:
ANA787 wrote:
PDX-CDG anyone?


I'd guess we'd see DL metal into CDG from LAX before PDX.


Why compete with AF? Isn't their JV metal neutral?
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