BoeingGuy wrote:

Sightseer wrote:

klm617 wrote:

Oh but they do you should not be so naive Delta is run on ego.

Considering DL's financial and operational performance the past seven years, I find this claim patently absurd.

You don’t get that he was being sarcastic?

I dont think he was given his post history....

beerbus wrote:

DL will use the A350 to accomplish the NRT pull-down. As new A/C are delivered, one should expect new TPAC flights- particularly from DTW, flying non-stop to historically served points south of NRT.

Disagree. I think Ed has made it clear in townhalls and the like that the Korean JV and associated connections over ICN will be the offset to the NRT pull-down as opposed to any new flying from DTW to destinations traditionally served over NRT.

winginit wrote:

beerbus wrote:

DL will use the A350 to accomplish the NRT pull-down. As new A/C are delivered, one should expect new TPAC flights- particularly from DTW, flying non-stop to historically served points south of NRT.

Disagree. I think Ed has made it clear in townhalls and the like that the Korean JV and associated connections over ICN will be the offset to the NRT pull-down as opposed to any new flying from DTW to destinations traditionally served over NRT.

With respect, I suggest my information comes from non-rumor based sources, and from my own management-based tenure in the markets and with airlines involved. While not all the destinations I listed will immediately be initiated, at least two of them could possibly commence in the next 24 months. And DL nor Ed Bastian are going to state it's future route plans in a townhall.

If KE was going to take over all of the south of NRT flying, DL wouldn't be taking delivery of 13 A350's by the end of 2018. There wouldn't be a need for all that capacity. Consider the MNL market- it's a big market. It's not all junk yield. Dl has been losing traffic to the midwest/south because of the double connection over NRT and DTW to interior cities. The great circle route is the fastest route between the two cities- and the A350 is the right-sized aircraft.

Again, the the A350 was acquired to fly TPAC. It is an A/C that will expand DL's TPAC route-map.

The KE ICN hub will serve a purpose similar to AMS does for east bound traffic from DTW. In this scenario, major city pairs from either hub are served directly via N/S service, while the inter-hub relay flights (DTW AMS or DTW ICN) are used to feed downline markets that cannot support n/s service. It will provide JV connections to numerous Asian markets that were not as convenient/profitable in a non-JV environment. Those new connecting passengers are a primary revenue benefit from the JV/anti-trust immunity for DL and KE. Anti-trust immunity provided a similar boost in TATL marketshare and revenue for both KL and NW when that JV commenced in the early-mid 90's.

The KL/NW JV helped drive corporate agreements- the revenue driver of high yield traffic. The agreements were/are generated by BOTH airlines on both sides of the ocean. The agreements drove increased traffic over N/S flights to between DTW and AMS, and flights to markets beyond AMS E/B and W/B over DTW. The aggregate new traffic generated via corporate agreements allowed new service from DTW to markets previously not served. Think LHR, MUC, and FRA for example.

The same phenomena will occur for DL with the KE JV. The JV will generate new passengers, even on non-stop TPAC flights that avoid the ICN hub. I know- it sounds counter-intuitive. But it actually happens. It occurred in the NW/KL situation. It will happen with KE/DL. And it's why the A350 will serve NEW TPAC markets from DTW. To understand- think beyond DTW. Think IND, SDF, CMH, DAY, and BUF for example. Those cities will help drive these new flights.

Lastly, DL would rather keep the high-yield traffic in many of the markets I previously outlined to itself, rather than split the revenue via JV prorates over ICN.

The JV also might make future TPAC routes from SEA.

Midwestindy wrote:

Yeah you are totally right, that is why Delta just added MCO-AMS and CDG-IND

Indiana taxpayers are giving Delta 5.5 million dollars to fly IND-CDG 3 times a week until the money runs out. That’s not growth, it’s welfare. Orlando to Amsterdam add cancels out Delta dropping Seattle to London in favor of Virgin Atlantic operating the route. Meanwhile, Delta has announced lower capacity in DTW the past two weeks and lower capacity in SEA for four weeks in a row before that. One addition and two reductions does not add up to net growth. So where is the mainline (not Korean, not Virgin Atlantic, and not Delta Connection) net growth?

IPFreely wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yeah you are totally right, that is why Delta just added MCO-AMS and CDG-IND

Indiana taxpayers are giving Delta 5.5 million dollars to fly IND-CDG 3 times a week until the money runs out. That’s not growth, it’s welfare. Orlando to Amsterdam add cancels out Delta dropping Seattle to London in favor of Virgin Atlantic operating the route. Meanwhile, Delta has announced lower capacity in DTW the past two weeks and lower capacity in SEA for four weeks in a row before that. One addition and two reductions does not add up to net growth. So where is the mainline (not Korean, not Virgin Atlantic, and not Delta Connection) net growth?

Actually IND-CDG is daily until some time in September and then goes 5x weekly. DL can earn up to $5.5 million. It is performance based where DL earns more by selling more seats instead of selling less.

Indy wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yeah you are totally right, that is why Delta just added MCO-AMS and CDG-IND

Indiana taxpayers are giving Delta 5.5 million dollars to fly IND-CDG 3 times a week until the money runs out. That’s not growth, it’s welfare. Orlando to Amsterdam add cancels out Delta dropping Seattle to London in favor of Virgin Atlantic operating the route. Meanwhile, Delta has announced lower capacity in DTW the past two weeks and lower capacity in SEA for four weeks in a row before that. One addition and two reductions does not add up to net growth. So where is the mainline (not Korean, not Virgin Atlantic, and not Delta Connection) net growth?

Actually IND-CDG is daily until some time in September and then goes 5x weekly. DL can earn up to $5.5 million. It is performance based where DL earns more by selling more seats instead of selling less.

As Indy mentioned, it's not really welfare, if DL doesn't meet the pax requirements they get 0 dollars. Plus, growth is still growth whether or not it is being incentivized...

I will also mention the fact that DL is also adding JFK-LOS, ATL-LIS, 3rd daily DTW-CDG, JFK-PDL, LAX-AMS/CDG, in addition to IND-CDG and MCO-AMS

http://news.delta.com/delta-s-trans-atl ... stinations

Midwestindy wrote:

Indy wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

Indiana taxpayers are giving Delta 5.5 million dollars to fly IND-CDG 3 times a week until the money runs out. That’s not growth, it’s welfare. Orlando to Amsterdam add cancels out Delta dropping Seattle to London in favor of Virgin Atlantic operating the route. Meanwhile, Delta has announced lower capacity in DTW the past two weeks and lower capacity in SEA for four weeks in a row before that. One addition and two reductions does not add up to net growth. So where is the mainline (not Korean, not Virgin Atlantic, and not Delta Connection) net growth?

Actually IND-CDG is daily until some time in September and then goes 5x weekly. DL can earn up to $5.5 million. It is performance based where DL earns more by selling more seats instead of selling less.

As Indy mentioned, it's not really welfare, if DL doesn't meet the pax requirements they get 0 dollars. Plus, growth is still growth whether or not it is being incentivized...

I will also mention the fact that DL is also adding JFK-LOS, ATL-LIS, 3rd daily DTW-CDG, JFK-PDL, LAX-AMS/CDG, in addition to IND-CDG and MCO-AMS

http://news.delta.com/delta-s-trans-atl ... stinations

Agreed. It's NOT welfare. You have to invest in yourself through incentives in order to get growth. That's just an economic fact.

IND paid UA 4 years ago to do IND-SFO. Now it's all market demand. You just simply have to give incentives out for new, foreign routes (That have some proof of potential demand of course). It's just a fact.

AUS gave BA incentives, BNA is giving incentives. Like I said, you have to invest in yourself through incentives for growth. End of story. Those incentives become a competition factor between airports.

beerbus wrote:

winginit wrote:

beerbus wrote:

DL will use the A350 to accomplish the NRT pull-down. As new A/C are delivered, one should expect new TPAC flights- particularly from DTW, flying non-stop to historically served points south of NRT.

Disagree. I think Ed has made it clear in townhalls and the like that the Korean JV and associated connections over ICN will be the offset to the NRT pull-down as opposed to any new flying from DTW to destinations traditionally served over NRT.

With respect, I suggest my information comes from non-rumor based sources, and from my own management-based tenure in the markets and with airlines involved. While not all the destinations I listed will immediately be initiated, at least two of them could possibly commence in the next 24 months. And DL nor Ed Bastian are going to state it's future route plans in a townhall.

Good for you. I make no secret of the fact that I have in the past consulted directly for Delta and other members of the US3 in a commercial capacity, so you'll have to excuse me if I don't put any more weight in your theories based on your claimed sources. Let's get specific then:

Of the 9 fifth freedoms over NRT, DL already serves three of them nonstop from DTW, leaving us with six that could hypothetically be launched nonstop from DTW presumably using the A350. ROR is out for reasons that don't warrant discussion, SIN is too far to serve without a crippling weight restriction, and BKK has proven time and time again that the yield climate is simply too challenging to warrant the cost, so those are all out leaving HKG, MNL, and TPE.

Sure, there's some premium traffic to MNL, but not enough to warrant a speculative nonstop launch with a brand new premium set of products, and HKG is bleeding so badly out of SEA that I'd be truly shocked if Delta rolled the dice with a DTW-HKG nonstop service, leaving us with TPE, which I suppose is possible but still likely doesn't warrant a nonstop when it can be so easily served over ICN.

BKK (Yield)
HKG
ICN (Already served)
MNL (Yield)
PEK (Already served)
PVG (Already served)
ROR (No)
SIN (8,100+ nm is out of A350 range)
TPE

You may have some contrasting thoughts to the above, but I'd be curious as to specifically which two markets you think DL might launch nonstop from DTW via an A350 in the coming 24 months, because I'd gladly bet against that wager. Even if it's an additional nonstop (let's say TPE or HKG maybe), that's hardly enough to justify the claim that the A350 out of DTW is somehow replacing fifth freedom flying over NRT.

winginit wrote:

beerbus wrote:

winginit wrote:

Disagree. I think Ed has made it clear in townhalls and the like that the Korean JV and associated connections over ICN will be the offset to the NRT pull-down as opposed to any new flying from DTW to destinations traditionally served over NRT.

With respect, I suggest my information comes from non-rumor based sources, and from my own management-based tenure in the markets and with airlines involved. While not all the destinations I listed will immediately be initiated, at least two of them could possibly commence in the next 24 months. And DL nor Ed Bastian are going to state it's future route plans in a townhall.

Good for you. I make no secret of the fact that I have in the past consulted directly for Delta and other members of the US3 in a commercial capacity, so you'll have to excuse me if I don't put any more weight in your theories based on your claimed sources. Let's get specific then:
Of the 9 fifth freedoms over NRT, DL already serves three of them nonstop from DTW, leaving us with six that could hypothetically be launched nonstop from DTW presumably using the A350. ROR is out for reasons that don't warrant discussion, SIN is too far to serve without a crippling weight restriction, and BKK has proven time and time again that the yield climate is simply too challenging to warrant the cost, so those are all out leaving HKG, MNL, and TPE.
Sure, there's some premium traffic to MNL, but not enough to warrant a speculative nonstop launch with a brand new premium set of products, and HKG is bleeding so badly out of SEA that I'd be truly shocked if Delta rolled the dice with a DTW-HKG nonstop service, leaving us with TPE, which I suppose is possible but still likely doesn't warrant a nonstop when it can be so easily served over ICN.
BKK (Yield)
HKG
ICN (Already served)
MNL (Yield)
PEK (Already served)
PVG (Already served)
ROR (No)
SIN (8,100+ nm is out of A350 range)
TPE
You may have some contrasting thoughts to the above, but I'd be curious as to specifically which two markets you think DL might launch nonstop from DTW via an A350 in the coming 24 months, because I'd gladly bet against that wager. Even if it's an additional nonstop (let's say TPE or HKG maybe), that's hardly enough to justify the claim that the A350 out of DTW is somehow replacing fifth freedom flying over NRT.

Is Saipan not a 5th freedom route?

alfa164 wrote:

winginit wrote:

beerbus wrote:

With respect, I suggest my information comes from non-rumor based sources, and from my own management-based tenure in the markets and with airlines involved. While not all the destinations I listed will immediately be initiated, at least two of them could possibly commence in the next 24 months. And DL nor Ed Bastian are going to state it's future route plans in a townhall.

Good for you. I make no secret of the fact that I have in the past consulted directly for Delta and other members of the US3 in a commercial capacity, so you'll have to excuse me if I don't put any more weight in your theories based on your claimed sources. Let's get specific then:
Of the 9 fifth freedoms over NRT, DL already serves three of them nonstop from DTW, leaving us with six that could hypothetically be launched nonstop from DTW presumably using the A350. ROR is out for reasons that don't warrant discussion, SIN is too far to serve without a crippling weight restriction, and BKK has proven time and time again that the yield climate is simply too challenging to warrant the cost, so those are all out leaving HKG, MNL, and TPE.
Sure, there's some premium traffic to MNL, but not enough to warrant a speculative nonstop launch with a brand new premium set of products, and HKG is bleeding so badly out of SEA that I'd be truly shocked if Delta rolled the dice with a DTW-HKG nonstop service, leaving us with TPE, which I suppose is possible but still likely doesn't warrant a nonstop when it can be so easily served over ICN.
BKK (Yield)
HKG
ICN (Already served)
MNL (Yield)
PEK (Already served)
PVG (Already served)
ROR (No)
SIN (8,100+ nm is out of A350 range)
TPE
You may have some contrasting thoughts to the above, but I'd be curious as to specifically which two markets you think DL might launch nonstop from DTW via an A350 in the coming 24 months, because I'd gladly bet against that wager. Even if it's an additional nonstop (let's say TPE or HKG maybe), that's hardly enough to justify the claim that the A350 out of DTW is somehow replacing fifth freedom flying over NRT.

Is Saipan not a 5th freedom route?

I believe it technically isn't (nor is GUM) as they're both considered part of the US and are thus services between Japan and the United States.

DL will only serve primary Asian routes from DTW. If they are going to serve secondary routes like SIN, its going to be from SEA. DTW is out of the way for most of the country, and the majority of people who are travelling to East Asia. DTW exists to funnel all southeastern and eastern seabord TPAC flights on Delta through one hub, but for smaller markets that need the additional passengers from every market out of the way of DTW, SEA exists - and that's why I don't expect to see anything at DTW that we won't first see at SEA.

jubguy3 wrote:

DL will only serve primary Asian routes from DTW. If they are going to serve secondary routes like SIN, its going to be from SEA. DTW is out of the way for most of the country, and the majority of people who are travelling to East Asia. DTW exists to funnel all southeastern and eastern seabord TPAC flights on Delta through one hub, but for smaller markets that need the additional passengers from every market out of the way of DTW, SEA exists - and that's why I don't expect to see anything at DTW that we won't first see at SEA.

Spot on.

jubguy3 wrote:

DL will only serve primary Asian routes from DTW. If they are going to serve secondary routes like SIN, its going to be from SEA. DTW is out of the way for most of the country, and the majority of people who are travelling to East Asia. DTW exists to funnel all southeastern and eastern seabord TPAC flights on Delta through one hub, but for smaller markets that need the additional passengers from every market out of the way of DTW, SEA exists - and that's why I don't expect to see anything at DTW that we won't first see at SEA.

I agree plus most Asian markets can be reached from Seattle with a variety of aircraft sizes making it much easier for Delta to adjust capacity to meet the demand and keep premiums high from a 767 to an A350. Only Delta's largest aircraft can reach Asia from Detroit giving them very little flexibility to adjust capacity other than reducing frequency to less than daily. Delta only just recently had a big win at Detroit by retiring the 747-400 in favor of a much smaller aircraft to reduce capacity and that's about all they can do .

winginit wrote:

beerbus wrote:

winginit wrote:

Disagree. I think Ed has made it clear in townhalls and the like that the Korean JV and associated connections over ICN will be the offset to the NRT pull-down as opposed to any new flying from DTW to destinations traditionally served over NRT.

With respect, I suggest my information comes from non-rumor based sources, and from my own management-based tenure in the markets and with airlines involved. While not all the destinations I listed will immediately be initiated, at least two of them could possibly commence in the next 24 months. And DL nor Ed Bastian are going to state it's future route plans in a townhall.

Good for you. I make no secret of the fact that I have in the past consulted directly for Delta and other members of the US3 in a commercial capacity, so you'll have to excuse me if I don't put any more weight in your theories based on your claimed sources. Let's get specific then:

No need to to to get snarky here. This is a friendly discussion. I only stated my background to give more credence to my writing, as I spent nearly 20 years in the markets I discussed employed with the carriers involved. And my sources aren't "claimed." They're just discrete. And because I am not interested in disclosing confidential information, I wrote in generalities.

But as you stated, most of the South markets from NRT are not viable, and I agree with you.

Regarding two of the markets I previously discussed:

MNL: The market is a bit larger than many realize. There is significant Filipino traffic between the two countries. Over the years, the income of Balikbayan expats has grown, further stimulating demand, and lessening the demand for "bucket shop" type fares. That coupled with increased business related traffic make the route a possible DTW add. NW flew full 744's between NGO and MNL. The A350 is the right sized AC to pick up that demand from DTW instead of NRT.

HKG. A little bit tougher environment that MNL, but again the 744 was too big between from DTW. The loads were good, but yields were only fair, because of dilution resulting from too many seats on the whale. The reduced seat inventory will help improve yields, and provide an important missing link to Asia from the midwest and east for DL's high yield generating corporate agreement customers.

Cheers!

Midwestindy wrote:

Indy wrote:

IPFreely wrote:

Indiana taxpayers are giving Delta 5.5 million dollars to fly IND-CDG 3 times a week until the money runs out. That’s not growth, it’s welfare. Orlando to Amsterdam add cancels out Delta dropping Seattle to London in favor of Virgin Atlantic operating the route. Meanwhile, Delta has announced lower capacity in DTW the past two weeks and lower capacity in SEA for four weeks in a row before that. One addition and two reductions does not add up to net growth. So where is the mainline (not Korean, not Virgin Atlantic, and not Delta Connection) net growth?

Actually IND-CDG is daily until some time in September and then goes 5x weekly. DL can earn up to $5.5 million. It is performance based where DL earns more by selling more seats instead of selling less.

As Indy mentioned, it's not really welfare, if DL doesn't meet the pax requirements they get 0 dollars. Plus, growth is still growth whether or not it is being incentivized...

I will also mention the fact that DL is also adding JFK-LOS, ATL-LIS, 3rd daily DTW-CDG, JFK-PDL, LAX-AMS/CDG, in addition to IND-CDG and MCO-AMS

http://news.delta.com/delta-s-trans-atl ... stinations

And it probably won't happen for next summer now but, on top of that, CRAA explicitly mentioned being in talks with DL about CMH-CDG or -AMS the day before IND-CDG was announced.